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Yep, besides if you're going to call someone a bad pick, wouldn't it make sense to see who else they could have drafted?The only player in the next 50 who the Chargers arguably should have taken is DJ Hackett. Look at the 2004 draft and argue otherwise.
I disagree. I don't think Leaf was a great pick. But that was Beathard, not Smith (or even Butler).
This I agree with.
If that's what they thought, sure. (They basically said that about Sproles -- Buddy Nix just before the draft said that Sproles is a situational guy rather than a true backup RB who would take over if LT went down.) But that's not what they think. They think that Hester is Michael Turner's replacement.
I think Hester would start in many fantasy leagues if LT went down.
This is getting a bit silly.
You're right, let's get off of Turner. That's really beside the point. As for Smith, yeah, I would agree that he is a great evaluator of talent. But that doesn't mean he doesn't miss every now and again. It happens. Shanny did a phenomenal job of selecting RB's for how many years in a row. He traded up to get a 3rd rounder a couple years ago out of Ohio State. How did that work for him?The crux of the matter is this. GM's are going to absolutely gush about every pick, more so for a pick they will be called out for reaching or over paying for, which is what is undoubtedly happening on SD talk radio right now. To blindly listen to what a GM has to say a week after the draft, even if said GM spent a 2nd and a 5th, is just plain naive. To say they have no reason to lie is also naive. They have every reason to lie. They need to convince the media and team presidents and owners that they didn't just screw up one of their major responsibilities.Oh, and I'll take Indy's GM over AJ Smith. Not by much but I would. Taking Edge over Ricky. Peyton over Leaf (seems laughable now but it was a legit controversy then), hiring Dungy, drafting Wayne and now Gonzalez. The reach for Ugoh last year that is looking great now. Gotta wonder where he would be if he could afford more to spend on D?
I don't know why this keeps getting brought up. My basic point is that Turner, so far in his career, is pretty unproven and pretty green. He could be a bust as a starter. I don't think he will, but right now based on his career numbers all he amounts to is a good backup RB. I own Turner and hope he does much better than that in Atlanta. But right now he is unproven. Averaging 55 carries a year for 4 years is not all that impressive, even for a backup RB.
Of course every team likes the players they just picked.I don't think anybody here is saying that Jacob Hester is going to be really good just because AJ Smith says so.What people are saying is that Hester is intended to be the backup RB just because AJ Smith says so. And because Norv Turner says so. And because Buddy Nix said so. If you want to know how the Chargers plan on using him, it makes sense to listen to those guys. And they are saying that he's not going to replace Lorenzo Neal; he's going to replace Michael Turner.AJ Smith has always been a straight shooter about that kind of stuff. A lot of people never believe him. (E.g., when he said "We're not going to trade Donnie Edwards after such-and-such date;" "Our asking price for Michael Turner is a first and a third;" "We're going to keep both Brees and Rivers for another year [2005];" and so on.) But he tends to be pretty straightforward on the rare occasions that he discusses football business with the media.If he says Hester will be the backup RB, there's a darn good chance that Hester will be the backup RB. It won't be just handed to him -- he'll have to impress people in camp and in the preseason. But the expectation by the Chargers is that he'll do so. There's no reason to think that AJ and Norv are fibbing about their plans for Hester.
He's one of the best pure runners in the league. The Chargers were offered a mid-first rounder for him last year. He was a bargain in the fifth round. Most fifth-round picks from the 2004 draft are no longer in the league.
BTW, I don't listen to talk radio all that much, but I haven't heard any negative sentiment about the Hester pick here. The fans all seem to love the pick -- optimistically thinking he'll be the offensive version of Eric Weddle (whom they "reached" for by trading up last year).
If you think AJ gives a rat's behind about what the media think, you aren't very familiar with him. He doesn't have to convince the owner/president of anything either.
For awhile now I've tried to include in my decision making on FF players the overall organization making player personnel decisions. I don't do IDP so I'm speaking primarily offensive decision making here. The rationale is that no player plays in a vacuum and his long term success or failure is often greatly affected by the team built around him. If a good front office is consistently making good decisions, laying a foundation for FF players to succeed, my dynasty players have a better likelihood of lasting success. Sometimes the coaches are heavily involved in the process, sometimes they are excluded. So, I try to take all that into account. I trust guys like Polian and Paoli and Savage and Thompson and AJ Smith over guys like Millen and Al Davis (since he lost his mind a few years back) and Nolan (replaced as GM my McCloughan now) and Billick (finally gone, thank God) and those types. Just because all teams have people they pay to make talent decisions does not mean they are all equal in ability, so to simply say they are all professionals and therefore be should be trusted in their decisions is silly. As for Chicago, as an offensive mind Jerry Angelo (and Lovie Smith if you want to include him in the so-called brain trust) has been a disaster. He seems to know defensive players and that has saved him, but I don't trust an offensive personnel decision he makes. He continues to stick with Grossman. He lets Berrian go instead of either getting a deal done or franchising him. They admit they should have played Bradley last year to prepare him but did not. Benson was a known jerk, hated by team mates before they chose to let Thomas Jones walk. I could write a long article on the failings of this CHI group as offensive decision makers. As for the Rams, one of the mistakes you keep making in your arguments is to think there is some sort of decision making continuity because the team name remains the same. Beginning with Vermiel's arrival in 1997 and ending with Martz' departure in 2005, the Rams knew offensive football. Obviously those guys are no longer there. With Zymgunt as GM and Linehan as HC, we'll see. I wasn't bashing the Rams' current group, I was pointing out that Super Bowls in 1999 and 2001 are irrelevant when evaluating the current group's decisions.
I'm not going to waste a lot of time on this one. You clearly don't understand the historical expected value of 5th round picks. Your expectations must be very high if you can't see what a find Turner was in the 5th round.
There is a bust risk with any player. Anyone not totally new to this already knows that. That's not an argument against making certain assumptions about a player when he is drafted. If those assumptions have to be adjusted later, so be it. That's part of the game. But when Matt Ryan is drafted, I assume he's going to start over Chris Redman at some point even though guys like Ryan Leaf have busted in the past. When the Raiders pick McFadden, I'm assuming he will be the primary back over Fargas even though other highly drafted RBs have not succeeded. You go with the best information available at the time of the decision and make certain assumptions, and even though there are setbacks along the way, in the long run you do a lot better than if you don't make those assumptions. Otherwise why bother with rookie drafts? Just draw names out of a hat!So, when a GM I trust deals 2nd and 5th round picks to move into position to pick a guy he has been targeting since last November specifically for a role, I'm going to assume that's going to be the player's role. Sorry if The Fanatic's opinion carries less weight for me. Might Jacob Hester not succeed in that role? Of course. So what? That argument can be made across the board with any player and is pointless to make.
Find the "I love guys that don't listen to what GM's have to say," quote from me. You can't, because it's not there. What I did say that probably pissed you off (post #70) was "Some guys on this message board just kill me. You get it in your heads what YOU think a guy ought to be and that's that, the facts be damned. But hey, if you guys want to go ahead and believe he's not a true tailback or that it's premature to anoint him as LT's handcuff, you go right ahead because you obviously are better at assessing what will happen than the Chargers' GM and HC. Good luck with that." I could have been more diplomatic, I admit. And I'm sorry it was so blunt if I did offend.As to the "are you just pulling arguments out of your ###," comment, that was in direct reference to you trying to use Ryan Leaf as an example of AJ Smith not making good decisions, and Leaf was drafted several years before Smith arrived, so I think you deserved that.
Why do you go on about this homer thing? I explained above that I trust certain NFL decision makers more than others. I guess I'm on Polian's jock and Paoli's jock and Thompson's jock too. I'm a homer of a whole bunch of teams it looks like. Your relying on insults because you don't like what I have to say is sad though, and the quote above is sad. For the record, I've been a 49er fan (and homer since I live in the Bay Area) most of my life and don't like many of the decisions they've made in the York era.
Why ask this? C'mon man, answering that question will just embarrass you, not me.I wasn't in the league two years ago. I took over an orphaned team in 2007. It was a pretty good team, but I was concerned about all the things going on in KC and one of the first things I did was trade away Larry Johnson.
Only the stupid fans are complaining about this pick. If Hester is what I think he is - the Chargers version of Moose Johnston - the fans will be loving this guy. I'm sure there were Cowboys fans complaining about the 2nd round pick used on Johnston as well.
What do you get when you buy term life insurance? Turner was valuable policy for a very cheap price. Plus a 5th round pick was paid, and likely a 3rd round pick will be returned. I want to be able to buy term insurance like that.
We loved Means, We loved Lo'Neal, we will love Hester if he moves the chains. Get this topic back on track and off the rant those of you have started.
Ok, if you have a problem with the pick then tell me why. What I've been saying all along is that the pick makes complete sense for the Chargers and they gave up very little (a late 2nd and 5th next year) for a guy who could be the difference between being a SB team or not being a SB team.
OK, I was done with this thread. It seems that some have agreed that GM's and front office people tend to gush over players after the draft and often times they gush too much. Some still disagree and say that AJ does not do this at all, fine. I'm guessing he had great things to say about the WR's he's brought in and that didn't net him much but I'm not going to research it. My other point is that Player Personnel people make mistakes. It happens with every team. And despite the fact that someone traded up to get a guy means absolutely nothing in April.
I understand if you don't know the Chargers that well, but that's my take on it. They needed someone to fill a need position and they liked Hester enough to trade up to get him. There are plenty of guys in the past who were role players but were key to their teams being in the SB. Hester may or may not be one of those guys, but obviously the Chargers FO thinks he could be.
WOW, post after post you state untrue facts. Denver used a compensatory pick on Clarrett. Please stop with all of the misinformation.
Argue minutae. Still, he took Clarrett in the 3rd round and was so wrong about the guy. The point is valid. He reached. SD may have reached as well...
What WRs has he brought in? Keenan McCardell, Vincent Jackson, Craig Davis, and Chris Chambers are the only ones I can think of. McCardell and Chambers were as good as advertised. (In Chambers' case, better.) Vincent Jackson, when he was drafted, was a project. I don't know where to look for AJ Smith quotes from that time, but Smith certainly never said that Jackson would step in and start right away. It's a big jump from Northern Colorado to the NFL, and it was expected to take a few years. Here we are a few years later, and Jackson is starting. He played very well down the stretch last year, and in the playoffs. Davis didn't get a lot of targets as a rookie, but he did what was asked of him. Looks like a good prospect to me. Time will tell. I just remembered Legedu Naanee as well. He looks like a great fifth-round find. (Eric Parker has also been way better than advertised, of course. He was supposed to just be training camp fodder.)
I would expect LT to play another four years, and by that time Hester may be starting to show some age. Running backs often have relatively short careers, and Hester's running style is not based on avoiding contact. Anything can happen and I wouldn't want to completely count Hester out already, but I would tend to agree with your analysis. I think the Chargers will draft LT's successor in another three or four years.Couch Potato said:
Oh, I'm not at all upset. I like the debate process, no matter the subject. Even this one where I am getting my ### handed to me over and overCouch Potato said:
I agree that he is not likely LT's successor and if the Chargers have to rely on the kid for very long or for a ton of carries they aren't going very far.I've just been questioning all along if he is really even going to hack it in the NFL. I hear what Smith says. I also see that the guy looks like a tweener to me. Too big to be a RB, too small to be a FB. Reports out of college peg him as a guy to slow to be a RB and a guy that doesn't open a big hole with his first hit that a FB should do. He does have the fact that he played in a strong college conference and played in big games there and for a big program. That should help to translate to NFL success over someone who tore it up for Trinity College. He should also be pretty good a picking up the blitz which will be a huge determining factor as to where he is on the depth chart in Sept. And I get back to this, depth charts are not written in April and May. Depth charts aren't even written in pencil in April and May. Waste of pencil. The guy could very well be the 2nd RB on the depth chart in Sept. He could also be nursing an injury or be relegated to strictly special teams.
Still waiting for insight on Jacob Hester. I should have known when I saw a three-page posting on Jacob Hester.
The Ignore option works wonders for this sort of thing. Some people let their egos blind themselves. Just walk away.Charger fans should be happy with Hester. I know I am.
I agree with this. Annointing Hester as the eventual successor and dubbing him as the handcuff for LT in 2008 are two different things entirely. As I've said, I'm a big Hester fan. I like everything about him as a college RB. As a pro (and fantasy) RB I don't believe he'll ever be an upper tier, every day featured back. He could produce for a good run in the event of an LT injury, but I envision he and Sproles splitting the touches and it evolving into a RBBC if LT is out for an indefinite period. Hester is solid. He's not flashy, but he could certainly be productive, especially in an offense like the Chargers where they have balance and other options.
Hester wasn't spectacular, but what he did, he did well. He moved the pile. He got first downs. He dominated the clock. He wore down defenses. He doesn't have long speed, great balance, sweet moves or tremendous power. He's just a good football player. He runs smart. He runs tough. He makes quick decisions. He takes what's there and gives you an extra yard. Down after down. His game isn't as threatened as much by the increased speed of the NFL like some college backs who depended on athleticism. He runs like Rueben Droughns, downhill with surprising pop and attitude. I think what he does translates nicely. He won't be a star. He won't break the big runs Turner broke. But can make important mundane running plays if asked to, and in combination with Sproles, the pick makes sense to me. Sproles cannot be expected to be much of a short yardage goalline back. Hester can. He'll also help on special teams as an excellent blocker. Would Tashard Choice or Jamaal Charles be better picks and players? My guess is probably. Would they be the safer pick? Probably not. You know exactly what you get with Hester, and that was apparently exactly what the Chargers wanted.
HELLZ YEAH!!
Sorry bro, but he wasn't targeted as a RB. That was a bonus later on. He was strictly used as a short yardage guy and lead blocker early on while Tiki did the rest.
You are not correct. Sure he was used primarily as a short yardage back early on but he was certainly drafted as a HB - nad was never a lead blocker (Finn was). Every story in the paper when he was drafted talked about how huge he was as a HB and how he would be the new "Thuder" to Tiki's "Lightning" replacing Dayne in that role.Jimm Finn was the FB on the 2005 Giants and Tiki, Ward and Jacobs were the HBs.Sorry bro, but he wasn't targeted as a RB. That was a bonus later on. He was strictly used as a short yardage guy and lead blocker early on while Tiki did the rest.
All this means is that the SDBoltReport.com staff writer doesn't have his facts straight. As we discussed ad naseum upthread, direct quotes from the GM and HC contradict this writer's assessment. Hester is LT's handcuff, not Thomas. I give this article no weight at all.
That statement seems shocking when you read it, but it's primarily because Hester is a jack-of-all-trades.Turner was basically "LT Jr." when LT was out of the game.Maurile Tremblay said:
Yeah......he's not that good.Unless you like a back who can run well, block well, catch well, play special teams well, be automatic in short-yardage situations (seriously, the guy is the best inside runner I've ever seen) and oh yeah, be a great team leader. Hell, he'd probably even cook the team dinner if you asked him to.Guys like that just aren't worth much, huh?
Afro Samurai said:
for future Hester scouting. for the Michael Turner catfight a few pages back.
When has Norv ever been for limiting his RB's touches? When has Norv ever pushed for a strong passing game? In Dallas? In Washington? With Oakland? With San Fran?
He absolutely TRUCKED that dude... put him right on his ###. Very impressive.
