Hill has 144-683-6 rushing and 21-180-0 receiving through 12 games (5 starts listed at Pro Football Reference.com).
Prorated, that would be about 200-900-8 rushing and 28-240-0 receiving over a full season. He is in the top 15 RBs in some scoring formats, and is tracking fairly closely to some pre-season estimates/expectations noted in the thread.
I don't know where to start.First of all, why would you pro rate his 12 game stats when there's a huge difference between the games where go played and the games where he didn't?
Second of all, his "top 15 numbers in some scoring formats" have people throwing up in their mouths right now about whether or not to use him. Why? Because "top 15" numbers suck.
Did you know hill has outscored Rashad jennings, cj Anderson, Isaiah Crowell, tre mason, and yes, even gio bernard? But people in this thread are saying they would tather have any of those guys in their lineup than hill right now. Except for the time that gio was hurt, Hill has been exactly what I said before the season - a high variance, touchdown dependent spot starter whose only real fantasy value was as a backup to gio.
What we are seeing now is that yes, hill is talented, but that offense doesn't have room for him to be a stud. I never questioned his talent. It was always this situation he's stuck in for the next four years or more.
And yes, i would still much rather have freeman on my dynasty roster. He's never tempted me to start him, and as I said, he may never amount to anything - but he has a shot at a feature role that hill still appears not to have.
Meanwhile, even in a near best case season where gio got hurt before a stretch of winnable games, and hill broke long runs in two of them, he's still been disappointing. And now, hill's dumb dumb factor just started to rear its head, too, criticizing the coach and prompting the coach to call him out. That was always a risk with hill and it may continue to be.
The fact that hill is tracking close to his preseason expectations and yet is borderline unstartable according to several posts this week is pretty much confirmation of everything I've said since day one. I don't care that you're still trying to spin the stats to prove that he's really a top fifteen back, but I'm disappointed that you still don't seem to understand the point that a guy who stayed healthy all year and ended up borderline top fifteen is virtually useless.
Hill's stats
Pre-Bernard injury (total through first 7 games - 50-195-3 rushing, 13-131-0 receiving / proration - 115-445-7 rushing, 30-300-0 receiving)
1) 4-19-0
2) 15-74-1 rushing, 2-22-0 receiving
3) 7-39-1
4) 2-1-0 rushing, 3-68-0 receiving
5) 8-22-1 rushing, 4-13-0 receiving
6) 4-15-0
7) 10-25-0 rushing, 4-28-0 receiving
Bernard injury (total in the three games - 62-361-2 rushing, 3-28-0 receiving / proration - 331-1,925-11 rushing, 16-150-0 receiving
8) 24-154-2 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving
9) 12-55-0 rushing, 1-6-0 receiving
10) 27-152-0 rushing, 1-13-0 receiving
Post-Bernard injury (total in the past two games - 31-127-1 rushing, 5-21-0 receiving / proration - 248-1,016-8 rushing, 40-168-0 receiving)
11) 18-87-1 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving
12) 13-40-0 rushing, 4-12-0 receiving
Bernard's stats
Pre-injury (total through first seven games - 107-446-5 rushing, 20-179-0)
1) 14-48-0 rushing, 6-62-0 receiving
2) 27-90-1 rushing, 5-79-0 receiving
3) 14-47-2 rushing, 1-7-0 receiving
4) 13-62-0 rushing, 2-10-0 receiving
5) 18-137-1 rushing, 4-20-0 receiving
6) 7-17-0 rushing, 2-[-1]-0 receiving
7) 16-45-1 rushing, 2-2-0 receiving
Post-injury (total in the past two games - 27-94-0 rushing, 3-26-0 receiving)
11) 17-45-0 rushing, 2-22-0 receiving
12) 10-49-0 rushing, 1-4-0 receiving
General observations
Hill had more than 10 carries just once in the first seven games, averaging slightly more than 7 carries per game.
He had 63 in the three games Bernard DNP due to injury, for an average of 21 carries.
With 31 carries the past two games after Bernard returned from injury, averaging 15.5 carries.
Bernard had less than 14 carries just once in the first seven games, averaging slightly more than 15 carries per game.
With 27 carries the past two games since returning from injury, averaging 13.5 carries.
So Bernard's usage in terms of rushing numbers is similar before and after the injury. Hill has had three distinct phases. Relative to his number of carries in the first seven games prior to Bernard's injury, he received on average about triple that amount in the three games Bernard was out, and once he returned, double the initial amount. Which "phase" looks more like a baseline for Hill, now and going forward, when Bernard is healthy?
The proration earlier didn't just include the games without Bernard that aren't as representative, but also the first seven games, in which he had just 2, 4 (twice), 7 and 8 carry games, which similarly may not be as representative of present projections and future expectations. There are many reasons why Hill might receive a higher AVERAGE number of carries than he did in his first seven games. He is more experienced in pass protection. Presumably knows the plays better. Is more acclimated to the speed of the game. But as far as the coaching staff is concerned, he has had two 150+ yard rushing games since those first seven games. As far as the mechanics of prorations, you can take out whatever numbers you want, and the thread can decide what seems more reasonable. The memory of what Hill did can't be excised from the coaching staff so neatly, I don't think they are going to unremember what happened. In his three career starts, he already has two 150+ yard games, more than Bernard has ever had in his career (broken 100 rushing yards once in 25 games and 9 career starts). Hill might be a better overall, pure rusher than Bernard. Bernard is a more skilled receiver. Using the games since Bernard has returned as a basis for Hill's forward projection, leaves out the potentially objectionable three games in which he started, but also the ones before his double 150+ yard breakout games.
That would yield (per above) about 250-1,000-8 rushing, 40-168-0 receiving.
Compare that to the proration numbers you objected to above (200-900-8 rushing and 28-240-0 receiving).
But isn't this just a smoke screen, since even if you hadn't objected to the proration numbers, even if you let them stand, you would still pronounce them as roster poison anyway, right?
I have to concur with Doctor Octo, the desultory participation in the weekly tracking is a sign that it is essentially meaningless, and isn't revealing what you are purporting it does. You have no idea about roster composition, what is the context of teams not starting or starting him? It is also hard to not interpret it as biased when before it began, you alluded to it not being an I told you so exercise, and than on something like a weekly basis, you say some variant of I told you so.
Gabriel Byrne did that to John Polito in Miller's Crossing. How can it not come off as biased and appear that you are deeply invested in "being right" when you went on record in the thread with feverish intensity saying you were going to pound the table so not one person drafted Hill?
I would boil down our differences to my focusing on talent, and you focusing on situation. IMO you have overstated how problematic Hill's situation is at times. You have a penchant at times to go for everything and the kitchen sink-type arguments, and when (mixing metaphors) you piled on and got caught with your hand in the cookie jar by including Gresham, you were called on it, and not just by me. Gresham, despite Eifert playing just one game, is around #20. When asked if we should be scared about Gresham, NOT IN CUMULATIVE RELATION TO OTHER PLAYERS BUT BY HIMSELF, you couldn't answer, and were unable to make a concession on even a simple point. When you make overreaching statements, try too hard, paint yourself into a corner, dig in your heels and thereby undermine your own credibility and make it difficult to take your arguments seriously, that is on you. Literally nobody on the planet would make a decision based on the presence of Gresham, where they were all set to add Hill, but once they alarmingly realized Gresham was on the roster, perished the thought because Gresham is too darned good!
So congrats, you are one out of 6-7 billion that profess to actually base your decision on such an extraneous, peripheral factor.
About Freeman. By far, the weakest part of your chain of reasoning (and a chain is as weak as its weakest link) is the bizarre it is good that he has done bad (never tempted to start him) mantra, and the counterpart, it is bad that Hill has done good (enough to tempt you to use him). The bottom line is, if Freeman fails, he was a bad pick, there is no rationalizing that it was "really" a good pick. Again, you don't get to declare victory in advance. We will have to wait and see how it plays out. To quote your colorful, though at times melodramatic, histrionic and overwrought language, if Freeman busts, he will be ROSTER POISON, you will have to stick your finger down you throat and vomit up the pick, and you will have screwed yourself by chasing opportunity over talent.
Hill's dumb dumb factor is relative. Is he as dumb dumb as Adrian Peterson or Ray Rice? No, he probably isn't a candidate to be an intern at CERN any time soon, but he isn't being paid to a be a physicist. If Hill is a superior between the tackles runner to Bernard (hint - he is), and gives the team the best chance to win, would Hue Jackson be a dumb dumb to cut off his nose to spite his face and play him less than he would otherwise, thereby increasing the chance of losing?
Clearly lots of things disappoint you and it doesn't take much to elicit that response from you, so that comes as zero surprise, but as it relates to others not following along with your elaborate belief structure when it comes to Hill, just for the record, I'm not sure if you realize how fringe your preference for Freeman over Hill appears to be, as of today? It isn't flat Earth, Elvis is alive or extraterrestrial aliens shaking hands with the President fringe, but it is really, really, really, really fringe. Maybe having a realization or epiphany on that will help you come to terms with your profound disappointment.
You stated potential owners would be better off not drafting Hill this year, as his value would surely go down, and he could be gotten cheaper next year. That was mistaken, that has not gone down as you predicted. Freeman has done very little with the opportunities he has been given, and his value may well have gone down. Not everything you have "been saying all along" has transpired like you suggested.
For me, it always gets back to the numbers not adding up.
How many RBs in the league currently meet your criteria as non-roster poison? How many are there to go around? Could you have gotten those players with the pick you used on Hill?
Did some of those RBs start out like Hill, or were they more like Freeman? Who fits the profile better for RBs that eventually attain non-roster poison stature?
IMO, you are speaking for yourself in most cases (see the Hill/Freeman dynasty poll) with the roster poison rhetoric and thread posturing. Others have suggested it may have to do with the fact that your being in one league doesn't give you a lot of perspective, and the strident tone betrays some kind of belief that you can extrapolate it to everybody (you know, like the ham-fisted roster poison refrain hundreds of times). What percentage of teams/leagues would rostering Hill comprise being roster poison? Does it matter if they are 14 or 16 team leagues? Start 1-2 RBs? One flex? Two Flex? Already loaded at other positions? Is your advice relevant 90% of the time? 80%? 70%? No idea (in which case, by definition, you just don't know what you are talking about in dispensing advice that isn't relevant to many teams/leagues)?