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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter zed2283
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
Dodds 13 Gio / 30 Hill
Trembley 21 Gio / 31 Hill
Both standard scoring.
That's the opinion of two pretty smart dudes. I'm scratching my head like you, but they get paid to figure this stuff out and generally do quite well.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Yeah, plus it is early week and they are likely erring on the side of caution assuming Gio returns and to near previous role. Once practice reports come out for Wed/Thurs and they update projections we will see where they rank them.
Don't they rank using the PPR format? Assuming since the FFPC is all PPR, that would be a yes. I can somewhat understand it then, but standard scoring its really just bizarre. The Cinci brass isn't just going to revert back to the pre-Gio injury gameplan after seeing Hill go beast mode in his absence...
shader
Footballguy
Hill's numbers are going to shrink. That's unquestionable. He isn't going to get 25-30 carries a game with Giovani in the lineup.
I think Giovani is going to have numbers that closely resemble last year. His upside is higher, only if he becomes a more consistent threat in the passing game.
Hill's upside is what we've seen the past few weeks. That upside is over when Gio comes back. I'm not saying either is better than the other, just that realistically, they will cut into each other's production.
I think Giovani is going to have numbers that closely resemble last year. His upside is higher, only if he becomes a more consistent threat in the passing game.
Hill's upside is what we've seen the past few weeks. That upside is over when Gio comes back. I'm not saying either is better than the other, just that realistically, they will cut into each other's production.
shader
Footballguy
i'm sure it's PPR. I would anticipate both backs to get around 15 carries, with Gio getting more receptions. Also, Gio is great on the goalline, so while Hill will get 15 carries, he won't necessarily be the goalline back. Gio attacks the LOS, and has shown to be an excellent goalline back. Probably whoever is on the field when they get inside the 5 will take the goalline carries.
Squintz82
Footballguy
There is no link. Its my opinion. Although I agree with Shader, they would probably just use whichever back is in at the time if they're near the GL.
Squintz82
Footballguy
Squintz82
Footballguy
I'm just trying to understand your point about the goal line. Before Gio was hurt, both backs would stay in on the goal line during their series. What are you saying will change?
The GL statement I retracted, I think they let whoever is in just take the rep. Both are fine there as other posters pointed out. My main point is his usage will certainly be going up. Do you really think Hill will avg 7 rushes/game now with Gio back? That's what he did with Gio prior to the injury. I don't see it and frankly I see Hill getting the majority of carries moving fwd.
Warpig
Footballguy
While it wouldnt be hard to fathom Hill getting the majority of the carries going forward. I think what will likely happen is Hill will get 12 - 15 touches with Gio getting about the same or a little more. Of course game flow and plan will dictate the overall numbers. Pretty sure most people can buy it being a pretty close split...not Hill taking over lead dog work.
shader
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I will say this...this is the one part about FBG that kind of frustrates me....Gio is coming off of a pretty serious hip injury that has had him out for awhile......Hill is coming off of some pretty impressive games......we have no idea at this point how much, if it all Gio will play....
if these guys (Dodds especially) actually know something that justifies these rankings, they should be sharing that info with the paid subscribers.....what do they know already that we don't...?....otherwise IMO these rankings should probably be reversed at this point based on the fact we have no clue what Gio role will be now on his return and HIll has been a monster....
sorry but I'm calling BS.....if it's not....then this is a situation I feel that FBG need to give an explanation (to the subscribers) about these rankings.....cause it doesn't make any sense right now.........
and it needs to be done before the Thursday game for those using it to make decisions....
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Squintz82
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
I think these are ppr rankings. If so, I'd say they are accurate.
If Gio gets an extra 2-3 receptions a game, with an extra 20 yards a game...That's about 5 additional ppg more than Hill, if you assume that Gio and Hill split carries.
Now the question I have for the Bengals is whether Gio will really get that many more receptions a game. I don't know if he will. It depends on if the Bengals script plays for him and try to get him the ball in space, or whether he's just a checkdown option for Dalton (which hasn't been going well this year and has gotten him hurt)
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hasn't Bernard pretty much sucked between the tackles? I expect Hill to have more success running the ball than Bernard. Perhaps Bernard will have more success in space catching dink and dunk passes.
shader
Footballguy
I agree that Hill is doing a better job as a traditional RB than Giovani. I think the sample size is small, but so far, I like Hill's ability better as a traditional RB.
I do think Giovani can improve, however. I get the impression that Giovani has been told not to "dance" at some point in his life. He attacks the LOS and isn't as good at waiting on holes to develop. If he can have a bit more patience, he could be dynamite.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Gio and Hill are both very good. Dalton still isn't very good. If they get a lead, H
I think it's just the one.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Dodds projecting 18/12 touches in favor of Gio.....Gio getting 15 carries to 10 for Hill
so at least some are expecting Gio to be the lead in a committee.....man I just don't see it....
what I do see is what has been working....and that's Hill.....
huge game for Cincy.....I'd roll with the hot hand as oppossed to pressing the issue of seeing how my guy "responds in first game back after injury"....not sure Cincy can afford waste a few series early to see what Gio brings back to the table.....if they get a lead with Hill, then I could see Gio getting more work....
so at least some are expecting Gio to be the lead in a committee.....man I just don't see it....
what I do see is what has been working....and that's Hill.....
huge game for Cincy.....I'd roll with the hot hand as oppossed to pressing the issue of seeing how my guy "responds in first game back after injury"....not sure Cincy can afford waste a few series early to see what Gio brings back to the table.....if they get a lead with Hill, then I could see Gio getting more work....
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mnmplayer
Footballguy
I won't pretend to know the splits going forward, I will point to this presser and see if they back up what was said, also some bias in fbg line of thinking in the "View" they take so that might be why Gio is ranked higher:
This came out before the Thu night game vs CLE, so Hill has had a good game and a bad game since then:
Mon 11/3/2014 8:22 AM
Cincinnati Bengals RB Giovani Bernard (hip) has zero chance of losing his starting job after RB Jeremy Hill's big game in Week 9, according to beat writer Coley Harvey. Footballguys View: Nobody expects Hill to take Bernard's job....the rookie is simply not as good as Bernard is. However, Hill is very talented, running with a blend of power and speed, so he could carve out a larger change-of-pace role when Bernard returns.
This came out before the Thu night game vs CLE, so Hill has had a good game and a bad game since then:
Mon 11/3/2014 8:22 AM
Cincinnati Bengals RB Giovani Bernard (hip) has zero chance of losing his starting job after RB Jeremy Hill's big game in Week 9, according to beat writer Coley Harvey. Footballguys View: Nobody expects Hill to take Bernard's job....the rookie is simply not as good as Bernard is. However, Hill is very talented, running with a blend of power and speed, so he could carve out a larger change-of-pace role when Bernard returns.
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dcgangstas
Footballguy
You know, I just look at Jeremy Hill and just see a 1400-1500 yard rusher just waiting to happen. Too bad the guys that really matter (in this case Hue Jackson and Marvin Lewis) probably won't see it that way.
These are the guys that insisted on giving a significant workload to a veteran scrub like Benjarvus Green-Slowest. Jackson seems to have some sort of aversion to handing the reins off to a rookie, even an extremely talented one.
We're going to have to wait until Week 12 to see how this plays out, unfortunately. It's possible that both guys will still have RB2 value, but unless one is out they will not have RB1 value.
These are the guys that insisted on giving a significant workload to a veteran scrub like Benjarvus Green-Slowest. Jackson seems to have some sort of aversion to handing the reins off to a rookie, even an extremely talented one.
We're going to have to wait until Week 12 to see how this plays out, unfortunately. It's possible that both guys will still have RB2 value, but unless one is out they will not have RB1 value.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
First, that was week 9, this is week 12. "Not as good as Bernard is"? Please....give me a break, he's looked much better than Bernard has. IMO Bernard is better suited to COP duties.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Didn't I make it obvious that release was after the week9 game where it says "after his big game week 9"? 
I think I placed the message in perfect context that the talent claim also wasn't mine. When you say, "First that was week 9 and this is week 12" you insinuate I was misleading people to think this was a recent release. Touchy Hill owner?
I think I placed the message in perfect context that the talent claim also wasn't mine. When you say, "First that was week 9 and this is week 12" you insinuate I was misleading people to think this was a recent release. Touchy Hill owner?That was from the beat writer, not the coach.
Gio didn't have a single game even close to as good as two of Hill's (running the ball) during his entire rookie season.
I think it's likely to be close to 50/50, but the point is, there's really no way of knowing until we see it on the field.
Faust
MVP
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
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mnmplayer
Footballguy
That wasn't from beating out Gio.
Yes that is understood, "according to beat writer Coley Harvey" but why does he think this? Is it because of Lewis's history with rookie backs?
NajehHejan
Footballguy
The ease in Gio talk is comforting. Might be able to get at least rb2 numbers out of him this week. If he has another strong outing it just forces their hands even more to give him at least 40-50% of the touches.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
This has to bump Hill up the rankings a bit for this weekend.proninja said:
And? He asked how many big games Gio had last season before he replaced BJGE, and he had zero even close to what Hill just put up.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
The reason he had the big games is irrelevant- you tried to say that Gio didn't take over despite having big games last year, but his big games (from a rushing perspective) were no where near as big as Hill's, so it's a bad analogy from the get go.
Don't know what the writer is basing it on, just pointing out that it's different than having the coach say it (which wouldn't be all that meaningful either considering it was a couple of weeks ago and coaches aren't always honest). The recent comments which are actually from the coach aren't nearly as definitive.
Again, time will tell how it plays out.
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dcgangstas
Footballguy
Update from Rotoworld, FWIW:
Bengals.com's Geoff Hobson expects Jeremy Hill to handle "the bulk of the carries until (Gio) Bernard’s hip and shoulder click back into place."
Playcaller Hue Jackson isn't naming a Week 12 starter, which leaves the door open for Hill to take over as the Bengals' primary runner, even with Bernard all set to play against the Texans. "I think my concern is keeping him healthy,’ Jackson said of Bernard, who missed the last three games. Asked if Hill has earned a bigger role, Jackson replied "I think he deserves it. ... I think Jeremy has done a tremendous job and he earns the right to play, there's no question about that. But it's always good to have two really good runners." Expect Hill to lead the Bengals in carries against Houston, and possibly carry the bulk of the workload the rest of the way. In fantasy, he's a borderline RB1.
Bengals.com's Geoff Hobson expects Jeremy Hill to handle "the bulk of the carries until (Gio) Bernard’s hip and shoulder click back into place."
Playcaller Hue Jackson isn't naming a Week 12 starter, which leaves the door open for Hill to take over as the Bengals' primary runner, even with Bernard all set to play against the Texans. "I think my concern is keeping him healthy,’ Jackson said of Bernard, who missed the last three games. Asked if Hill has earned a bigger role, Jackson replied "I think he deserves it. ... I think Jeremy has done a tremendous job and he earns the right to play, there's no question about that. But it's always good to have two really good runners." Expect Hill to lead the Bengals in carries against Houston, and possibly carry the bulk of the workload the rest of the way. In fantasy, he's a borderline RB1.
Pretty much what I expected all along. I actually don't think Gio will be used much at all this game, maybe a series here or there. At least for this week, Hill is the man again.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Were you also expecting Gio to be back to taking 1st team snaps today? Do they normally do that for the guy that "maybe gets a series here or there?"
Which, yet again, tells us absolutely nothing in terms of what the split is going to be going forward.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Predicting the split is a futile effort. The coaches might have an intention but as Mike Tyson pointed out so eloquently "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." It's going to be what its going to be. Call it 50/50 but with only about 10% confidence in it actually being that. We don't know. Nobody does. No you, me, Hue Jackson, Gio Bernard, Jeremy Hill, Jonah Hill, or anyone else.
Just accept that Hill might get all, none, or some of the carries.
Just accept that Hill might get all, none, or some of the carries.
