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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
NREC34
Footballguy
Looks like he's in the doghouse. Guess that happens when you can't hold onto the ball.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
If he keeps fumbling 2 X a game, absolutely.
Bernard had Y/C averages of 4.1 and 4.0 in '13 and '14. Not exactly dominant (Hill was over 5 as a rookie).
Hard to weight a game or two in '15 over what we saw in two seasons before this.
Bernard had a good game, bully for him.
Hill ended up in the dog house, and Jackson sidelined him and made him think about it. Will the OC go Belichick on him for the rest of the season? I find that doubtful.Not to mention, Bernard is about 205 lbs. and Hill about 237 lbs. Who is built better to carry the load? Today Hill got 10 carries and Bernard 20 carries, but do they really want to make that a trend? If they do, they risk Gio breaking down, and I'm not sure they want to do that. They may want to preserve him for a long, grueling season, and hopefully better than an immediate playoff exit again. Again.
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sandlotshrink
Footballguy
Hill got sent a message today and rightfully so. There's a reason the team went to Hill over Gio last year and until today, it's been nothing but successful. The universe will right itself soon and all will be well with the Bengal backfield.....as long as Hill holds onto the ball. It's not like Dalton can continue to carry the load.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I think both are going to hurt each others values. Same as it ever was.
Jeremy Hill talks benching after two fumbles vs. Bolts:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000535969/article/jeremy-hill-talks-benching-after-two-fumbles-vs-bolts
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000535969/article/jeremy-hill-talks-benching-after-two-fumbles-vs-bolts
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georg013
Footballguy
I think they confused Jeremy Hill with Gio Bernard. I thought Gio was the new workhorse and Hill owners should be worried.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I'm starting Yeldon over him. This might be a colossal mistake...
Nero
Footballguy
Jeremy Hill's focus is on helping Bengals win, not helping fantasy teams:
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/181947/jeremy-hills-focus-is-on-helping-bengals-win-not-helping-fantasy-teams
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/181947/jeremy-hills-focus-is-on-helping-bengals-win-not-helping-fantasy-teams
TZMarkie
Footballguy
Just for those who may be interested or better yet, trying to gauge how much he is valued at this point .......
I am an owner of Jeremy Hill who is actually benching him this week.
(I also have Gio Bernard on the same squad)
I have Latavius Murray @ CHI , and I am also firing up Karlos Williams vs. NYG.
Both of these seem to be very desirable matchups.
I believe this may be one of those "get right" games for Hill, but the appeal of these matchups is just too strong for me.
Ironically, as I have alluded to before, I don't normally acquire the elite( or 1st round-ish) RBs, and in a sense, this is sort of why.
When I decided to pull the trigger on Hill in the swing/13th pick in a 12 man league, I was actually looking forward to having a "go to" guy for a change, instead of the WR-WR start I try and exact.
I was smart enough to cuff Hill with Gio, but at this point its almost as if I don't want either honestly.(someone just take the reins and get it over with)
I am actually hoping he does have a good game, then I would be more inclined to start him in the future.
The upcoming matchups are a bit of a worry though, he has Seattle, then @ Buffalo and then the bye week.
Hopefully after the bye, things will be sorted out, and I (or us owners) can start him more confidently.
From then on, the only real matchups that scare me are @ Arizona in week 11, and @ Denver in week 16.
Thats championship week for most of us.
IF you are an owner and you make it that far, if this same timeshare is still apparent, then some of us are going to have a Hell of a choice in week 16 I'm guessing.
TZM
I am an owner of Jeremy Hill who is actually benching him this week.
(I also have Gio Bernard on the same squad)
I have Latavius Murray @ CHI , and I am also firing up Karlos Williams vs. NYG.
Both of these seem to be very desirable matchups.
I believe this may be one of those "get right" games for Hill, but the appeal of these matchups is just too strong for me.
Ironically, as I have alluded to before, I don't normally acquire the elite( or 1st round-ish) RBs, and in a sense, this is sort of why.
When I decided to pull the trigger on Hill in the swing/13th pick in a 12 man league, I was actually looking forward to having a "go to" guy for a change, instead of the WR-WR start I try and exact.
I was smart enough to cuff Hill with Gio, but at this point its almost as if I don't want either honestly.(someone just take the reins and get it over with)
I am actually hoping he does have a good game, then I would be more inclined to start him in the future.
The upcoming matchups are a bit of a worry though, he has Seattle, then @ Buffalo and then the bye week.
Hopefully after the bye, things will be sorted out, and I (or us owners) can start him more confidently.
From then on, the only real matchups that scare me are @ Arizona in week 11, and @ Denver in week 16.
Thats championship week for most of us.
IF you are an owner and you make it that far, if this same timeshare is still apparent, then some of us are going to have a Hell of a choice in week 16 I'm guessing.
TZM
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Thanks.
bostonfred
Footballguy
So it looks like most people started him all three weeks so far. Let's try this again - is the consensus to start him or sit him this week?
It was a lot easier last year when gio was injured.
It was a lot easier last year when gio was injured.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
At this time I have him firmly planted to my bench in favor of Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon.
Firmly planted??? I could see maybe a piece of masking tape, but I would think it unwise to bolt him down to the bench behind two mediocre players who have barely outscored him. No way I start Yeldon over him until Yeldon actually shows something
bostonfred
Footballguy
But that's what he is. A very talented, but game flow and touchdown dependent, player who is getting outscored by tj yeldon and Chris ivory. That's what he was last year until gio got hurt, too.
Which means every week you need to decide if it's a hill game or a gio game or an aj green game or a Marvin Jones game or a Sanu game or an eifert game or a bad Andy game where you don't want any of them. A lot of mouths to feed on a good but not great offense. And you'll never shake the feeling that just when you put him on your bench hes going to blow up, so you start him for the bad weeks and miss the good weeks chasing points all season. Roster poison.
Which means every week you need to decide if it's a hill game or a gio game or an aj green game or a Marvin Jones game or a Sanu game or an eifert game or a bad Andy game where you don't want any of them. A lot of mouths to feed on a good but not great offense. And you'll never shake the feeling that just when you put him on your bench hes going to blow up, so you start him for the bad weeks and miss the good weeks chasing points all season. Roster poison.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
What's just not true? The thing you quoted and underlined and restated?
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Yeah, definitely not bolted to the bench. I just have a feeling Yeldon gets his first TD this week. I am not seeing anything out of Hill to justify keeping putting him out there. I might decide Sunday morning to change and put him in, but not sure of that.
Jack White
Footballguy
I would start Gio over Hill in PPR if I had the choice.
But better days are ahead for Hill.
Jack White
Footballguy
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
this thread makes me sad
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Whatever happens this year and in the future, there is some serious revisionist history regarding last year.
Bernard's injury and 3 game absence cracked the door for Hill. But Hill broke the door down with his play, and looked better in his half season starting stretch than Bernard ever had in his two seasons (week 2 of 2015 was Bernard's second 100 yard game rushing, Hill had four 145+ yard rushing games in the second half of his rookie season alone). If Hill hadn't decisively outplayed Bernard, EVEN WHEN HEALTHY, it is very unlikely Bernard would have lost the starting gig to Hill DUE TO INJURY.
He had several of those 145+ yard games AFTER Bernard returned, not EVERYTHING he accomplished was due to Bernard's injury (when he led the league in rushing - lots of RBs had teammates get injured and had that exact same opportunity and advantage, and didn't lead the league over a half season). He was not strictly TD dependent, with or without Bernard in the lineup - he led in rushing YARDAGE, not TDs. He could be a prolific scorer, TOO, (only Murray and Lynch scored more TDs among RBs, and they started a whole season instead of half, and had massively more usage), so it certainly it isn't a bad thing that Hill scores a lot.
RBs have been successful in the past in cases where they weren't the only talented offensive player on the roster, it is possible, and there are many precedents that come immediately to mind. Being on a team with Green isn't all bad. More sustained drives and red zone opps can be synergistic with his success. It is a bit early to say Eifert is destined to be so awesome that Hill is doomed. This exact same trying too hard, everything but the kitchen sink Hill is doomed rationale was even used with the additive awesomeness of the great Jermaine Gresham last year. Who isn't even on the team any longer. I trust zero people avoided him on that over the top basis.
If Coleman (who had 20 carries week 1) hadn't been injured, Freeman would be roster poison. If Coleman outplays him (like rookie Hill did with a better second year RB in Bernard in 2014), his week to week scoring will become highly variable.
Bernard's injury and 3 game absence cracked the door for Hill. But Hill broke the door down with his play, and looked better in his half season starting stretch than Bernard ever had in his two seasons (week 2 of 2015 was Bernard's second 100 yard game rushing, Hill had four 145+ yard rushing games in the second half of his rookie season alone). If Hill hadn't decisively outplayed Bernard, EVEN WHEN HEALTHY, it is very unlikely Bernard would have lost the starting gig to Hill DUE TO INJURY.
He had several of those 145+ yard games AFTER Bernard returned, not EVERYTHING he accomplished was due to Bernard's injury (when he led the league in rushing - lots of RBs had teammates get injured and had that exact same opportunity and advantage, and didn't lead the league over a half season). He was not strictly TD dependent, with or without Bernard in the lineup - he led in rushing YARDAGE, not TDs. He could be a prolific scorer, TOO, (only Murray and Lynch scored more TDs among RBs, and they started a whole season instead of half, and had massively more usage), so it certainly it isn't a bad thing that Hill scores a lot.
RBs have been successful in the past in cases where they weren't the only talented offensive player on the roster, it is possible, and there are many precedents that come immediately to mind. Being on a team with Green isn't all bad. More sustained drives and red zone opps can be synergistic with his success. It is a bit early to say Eifert is destined to be so awesome that Hill is doomed. This exact same trying too hard, everything but the kitchen sink Hill is doomed rationale was even used with the additive awesomeness of the great Jermaine Gresham last year. Who isn't even on the team any longer. I trust zero people avoided him on that over the top basis.
If Coleman (who had 20 carries week 1) hadn't been injured, Freeman would be roster poison. If Coleman outplays him (like rookie Hill did with a better second year RB in Bernard in 2014), his week to week scoring will become highly variable.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Less than 1%And all of that will be monstrously irrelevant if Hill's situation (carry distribution in the RBBC) doesn't remain EXACTLY the same next year as it was in the first 13 games of his rookie season, with no possibility of an uptick in usage if he proves the better pure runner to Bernard (who can get more receptions as a touch equalizer).
* If you were talking about Freeman, he has less than a 1% chance of ever being a 1,600 yard rusher. That was close, though, only off by about a COUPLE ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Might be.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Everything did work right for hill. Gio got hurt, all of the receivers were hurt, and the offense leaned heavily on hill towards the end if the season. He ended up having a low RB1 season them faded back to rb2/rb3 status. What happened to all of the people who kept bumping my posts last year?
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Seems like it
bostonfred
Footballguy
I stick to my guns and you guys rush in here to bump the thread, but now you're gone for some reason.
bostonfred
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Are you really trying to call people out for bumping the thread? Something I never did.BTW, I've already said Hill has been terrible this year... In this thread. It doesn't change that you made some terrible posts in here.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Summary of my calls in here, all bumped
1) freeman is a better pick than hill
2) hill can be a rb1 for a season if gio gets hurt
3) otherwise, hill is a rb2/rb3 who will be difficult to start each week so he'll blow up on people's benches for a couple tds
Nothing terrible about those calls. Pretty much everything I've said has come true, and here you are still on the attack.
1) freeman is a better pick than hill
2) hill can be a rb1 for a season if gio gets hurt
3) otherwise, hill is a rb2/rb3 who will be difficult to start each week so he'll blow up on people's benches for a couple tds
Nothing terrible about those calls. Pretty much everything I've said has come true, and here you are still on the attack.
jurb26
Footballguy
You left quite a bit out...
I definitely fell victim to Hill being overrated. However, it's a weird year for RB's when you see only a handful of relevant guys and none were available during the draft at Hill's ADP. So while many of us selected Hill poorly he was amongst a dozen other RB's that were poorly selected. This year the proper strategy would've been to select two WR's and a QB with the first three picks and scramble for RB's after that. Speaking for myself as a previous fantasy champion who was picking from the 12 slot. Going forward it's good to see the names who got it right. They should be listened to closer in the future to see if they were lucky or good.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Like what? Hill had his opportunity this year but blew it by fumbling and looking tentative (as opposed to patient) and not running well. It had nothing to do with Greschem (then) or Eifert (now). It was a foolish argument then and still is - even if you get to gloat now because Hill has shown poorly this season.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Bad process sometimes leads to good results by chance, but using bad process consistently is not going to get you anywhere in the long run. You'll get lucky sometimes, but for the most part bad process will lead to bad results.
Hill is failing this year but it isn't because there's too many mouths to feed in the Bengals' offense. It's because HE failed. The coaching staff wanted to ride him, they said so repeatedly and in fact are still saying it - he just hasn't played well at all.
I will commend you on the Freeman call in here. I felt like he could be a solid/good back but didn't feel like he was a great talent.
It's funny though because we could have used the same arguments against him. The Falcons drafted a back using a higher pick and that back was named the starter heading into the season (plus the team has Julio, White, Hankerson and Tamme on it's roster and Ryan is a good but not great QB). The first two games they split carries with Freeman being used more as a third down back and then Coleman broke some ribs opening the door for Freeman. The o-line and blocking scheme came together and Freeman has looked fantastic taking advantage of it. He's having a historic season and should now hold onto the job - Coleman did average 10 ypc last night though so if he wasn't hurt on the first place perhaps he'd be the one we were talking about. Last night if not for Coleman's fumble that cost him playing time, perhaps Freeman doesn't end up having such a huge night because Coleman is worked in more. I'm not saying this to disparage Freeman. If you own him you should be happy - but just pointing out how unfounded those worries would have looked in hindsight.
Anyway, I still would say it's silly to call Hill "roster poison" (but I'm sure you'll keep doing that) - I have him on one dynasty roster and I'm still happy to have him. This week I will start Hyde, Gordon and Lewis over him and likely would stick West in over him if I decided to remove one of those guys. But I still think he's a very talented back and will start him during good matchups (BUF on the road is not one).
Hill is failing this year but it isn't because there's too many mouths to feed in the Bengals' offense. It's because HE failed. The coaching staff wanted to ride him, they said so repeatedly and in fact are still saying it - he just hasn't played well at all.
I will commend you on the Freeman call in here. I felt like he could be a solid/good back but didn't feel like he was a great talent.
It's funny though because we could have used the same arguments against him. The Falcons drafted a back using a higher pick and that back was named the starter heading into the season (plus the team has Julio, White, Hankerson and Tamme on it's roster and Ryan is a good but not great QB). The first two games they split carries with Freeman being used more as a third down back and then Coleman broke some ribs opening the door for Freeman. The o-line and blocking scheme came together and Freeman has looked fantastic taking advantage of it. He's having a historic season and should now hold onto the job - Coleman did average 10 ypc last night though so if he wasn't hurt on the first place perhaps he'd be the one we were talking about. Last night if not for Coleman's fumble that cost him playing time, perhaps Freeman doesn't end up having such a huge night because Coleman is worked in more. I'm not saying this to disparage Freeman. If you own him you should be happy - but just pointing out how unfounded those worries would have looked in hindsight.
Anyway, I still would say it's silly to call Hill "roster poison" (but I'm sure you'll keep doing that) - I have him on one dynasty roster and I'm still happy to have him. This week I will start Hyde, Gordon and Lewis over him and likely would stick West in over him if I decided to remove one of those guys. But I still think he's a very talented back and will start him during good matchups (BUF on the road is not one).
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Bills this week does not seem like a good match up for Hill. Then the Bengals have a bye.
Coming out of the bye the Bengals have the Steelers, Browns and Texans. I think these could be good match ups for Hill. The rest of the schedule looks pretty decent actually with games against the Cardinals and Broncos as the only games that look unfavorable.
Coming out of the bye the Bengals have the Steelers, Browns and Texans. I think these could be good match ups for Hill. The rest of the schedule looks pretty decent actually with games against the Cardinals and Broncos as the only games that look unfavorable.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You're right. I was actually talking about this week so I should have said Buffalo. I didn't start him last week either though.
cheese
Footballguy
Dave Lapham talked about Hill's performance so far yesterday on local radio. If you aren't familiar, he's the radio announcer and very informed with the team. He said Hill doesn't look at all the same to him and he thinks he's likely not 100%. He also said he thinks later in the year we will see harder running and, in return, bigger usage games.
jurb26
Footballguy
Hill looks nothing like last year. Maybe he is injured to some extent but if so, why haven't we heard about it?
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