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I think the realistic upside for the 2014 rookie TEs is that, a year from now, they're where Jordan Reed is right now. Why sell a player for a rookie pick that, in a year, might hopefully yield an asset as good as the player you just sold?
You're right on the upside for rookie TEs. But, if only 12 TEs can start in a league, while 36 WRs and/or RBs do, it wouldn't be inconceivable to trade Reed for a 1st if you're targeting WRs or RB. Consider, right now according to at least some "Experts" in the 2014 draft there will be ~ 5 WRs with first round grades, 5 RBs with first or second round grades, and I've seen up to 7 QBs with first round grades. At least a few of those QBs appear to be franchise types. If TE is devalued as a position in your league, Reed for a player like Marcus Marriota or Mike Evans (who actually bears some resemblance to Reed), it could be a fair deal. OTOH, while it may be tempting to trade him for a chance at Ebron, I wouldn't do it.
No way is anything but an early first round rookie pick worth it at this point, and even that isn't something I'd jump at. The odds of me drafting something as good as Reed right now probably aren't very high. We've only seen two games of his breakout, but it looks really promising.
Sometimes. Other times, the best way to maximize the value of an asset you got relatively cheaply is to sell it for a huge profit. I mean, if you could keep turning 3rd round rookie picks into pretty dang good players, you'd soon have a very good team. If you could keep turning 3rd round rookie picks into 1st round rookie picks, though, you'd also soon have a very good team. At this point, Jordan Reed owners should expect a tidy profit no matter what they choose to do with him.
To me that seems like we are trying to get to fancy. I mean if you have a top 3-4 TE in the league who is a "rookie" the only thing more valuable is what? You just hit a 2 run homer. Don't throw the ball back and try to hit a grand slam.
300 passes from the juggs machine which, according to Cooley, throws hard. Cooley said Reed had gloves on and his hands were sore by the time he got done.
Chargers look to be middle of the road for production this year given up to the TE position. Not good, not bad, about average. Are you seeing something different?
The main TE production came from the Houston game when they had a special teamer covering TE's (Bront Bird). They gave up 2 TD's to TE's that game. They have since moved Weddle back to his regular safety position and rarely have him play at ILB so he's been locking down TE's. Considering Reed is their only threat, I suspect he does this again like when he was matched up with Witten and shut him down.
There may be some merit to your Weddle theory but I think Reed is a more explosive athlete than Witten. Who else have you seen him "shut down"?
Translation: They cover NO ONE, so the first read is open. I would not be worried about Reed. Essentially a WR2 and does not play inline.
In addition, teams all use their TEs so differently. How San Diego defended Jason Witten doesn't say a ton about how they'll defend Jordan Reed, because they're such different players- it'd be like saying that a cornerback is going to shut down Desean Jackson because he just shut down Larry Fitzgerald. That, and so many teams simply don't feature their TE, so it's easy for a defense to rank very high in "points allowed to a TE" without doing anything special, just because of who they faced. Add it all together, and SoS winds up having very little predictive power for weekly TE performance. I'm not saying it has NO predictive power- if San Diego routinely singles Weddle up on TEs, then that very well might carry over from week to week. I know when Denver first got Champ Bailey, they used to have him shadow Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, and he reliably held them well below their season averages. I'm just saying, SoS values should be taken with a boulder-sized grain of salt when it comes to TEs.
Best tight ends they faced last season:
Couldn't agree more here. I was stuck with Jared Cook and this guy could easily save my season, not having to rely on the 3-5 points Cook was graciously providing.
Florida used to do that all the time with Hernandez under Urban Meyer. For that matter, I wouldn't be surprised if the Shanaclan cribbed that play straight from Urban's old playbook.
Very Hernandez-esque. Reed reminds me of Hernandez in a lot of ways (minus the homicidal tendencies, of course).
theyre winning
reed was out there a ton
