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Jordan Reed - TE - SF (1 Viewer)

Tweets from tonight:

So Jordan Reed is still the only TE in the league who has scored 8+ points in every game (PPR). Remarkable consistency.

Pro-rated to 16 games, Reed's stats would be 88 receptions for 974 yards. Jordan Reed is a rookie. Tight end.

That would be the 16th best single-season receiving total by a rookie. It would be the second best season by a rookie TE, behind Iron Mike.

 
Yeah and it appears anyway that RG3 isn't really that good. The jury is still out for me though because Reed might be benefiting from being 1 of only 2 offensive threats in the passing game.

 
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water1 said:
Yeah and it appears anyway that RG3 isn't really that good. The jury is still out for me though because Reed might be benefiting from being 1 of only 2 offensive threats in the passing game.
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We won't know if RG3 is destined to be "really that good" for a couple more years. Speculating now is worthless.

 
Idk man his wheels look pretty bad. I'm not saying he can't improve but he is def not as dynamic this year as last. He also hasn't made one "wow" throw this year that I can remember. He also has the worst passer rating in the league on passes over 15 yards. I hope it's just he's not healthy.......

 
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water1 said:
Yeah and it appears anyway that RG3 isn't really that good. The jury is still out for me though because Reed might be benefiting from being 1 of only 2 offensive threats in the passing game.
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I just don't agree with any of this.

I'm not sure how you can say that about RG3 at this point. A year removed from ACL surgery, I don't think we can really classify this season as regression. Saying he isn't really that good seems like a "what have you done for me lately" attitude that can burn you in fantasy (dynasty speaking). It's clear he hasn't been good this season, but can you just ignore what he did last year?

Where Reed is in terms of targets and being a threat in that passing game is pretty much beside the point IMO. The defense knows he's the a top threat and they're giving him the attention of a top threat... yet he's still producing. To just ignore that and write his success off to lack of other targets seems a bit shortsighted. Producing at his age and his position isn't something many kids do.

In dynasty, if you don't have Reed, you're probably not getting him for anything reasonable at this point. If you're selling him because he's the #2 guy in the passing game, you're making a huge mistake.

 
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I'm not saying Reed might not be special. I'm saying the jury is still out for me. Hopefully he is I own him.

 
werdnoynek said:
water1 said:
I'm not saying Reed might not be special. I'm saying the jury is still out for me. Hopefully he is I own him.
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So what exactly are you saying when you say "the jury is still out"? Because I'm clearly confused...
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He's had one great game, two pretty good games and the rest are meh. I love his talent and by no means would argue that he doesn't have the potential, but he hasn't been stacking up numbers week to week. I think its more than fair to say the jury is still out.

 
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I'm saying he "might" be special and I'm obviously not selling but I'm not ready to crown him yet. Sorry that last post was poorly worded.

 
The skins have played against a lot of prevent defense this year as well. I'm not sure if Reed has taken advantage of that or not.

 
water1 said:
The skins have played against a lot of prevent defense this year as well. I'm not sure if Reed has taken advantage of that or not.
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Reed has mostly been a 1st half player. Best to keep commentary based almost entirely on guess-work and not having seen the games, away from the keyboard.

 
water1 said:
So that's it? You're convinced he's the next big thing at TE?
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What does "the next big thing" mean? He's a young TE producing like a TE1, with a young QB who loves throwing to him. He probably isn't ever going to rival Gronk or Graham, but he's obviously good and obviously productive.

 
tone1oc said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
water1 said:
So that's it? You're convinced he's the next big thing at TE?
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What does "the next big thing" mean? He's a young TE producing like a TE1, with a young QB who loves throwing to him. He probably isn't ever going to rival Gronk or Graham, but he's obviously good and obviously productive.
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A lot of people were saying that about Kyle Rudolph last year.
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Okay, but Rudolph's production was very TD-dependent. In weeks he didn't score, he was pretty dreadful in PPR. That has not been the case for Reed, who has been really solid in every week he has not scored (not counting the Oakland game, which I believe he missed).

 
tone1oc said:
werdnoynek said:
water1 said:
I'm not saying Reed might not be special. I'm saying the jury is still out for me. Hopefully he is I own him.
Click to expand...
So what exactly are you saying when you say "the jury is still out"? Because I'm clearly confused...
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He's had one great game, two pretty good games and the rest are meh. I love his talent and by no means would argue that he doesn't have the potential, but he still on the large is very TD dependent (like most non-elite TEs) and hasn't been stacking up numbers week to week. I think its more than fair to say the jury is still out.
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Here is a complete list of every single TE in the entire NFL who has scored 8+ points in every game this year (PPR scoring):

  1. Jordan Reed
Here is a complete list of every rookie tight end in NFL history who has averaged more yards per game than Jordan Reed.

  1. Mike Ditka
Here is a complete list of every rookie tight end in NFL history who has averaged more receptions per game than Jordan Reed.

 
Where is he special? His speed? His hands? His route running? Or is he just really solid on everything so his numbers are inflated because they are leaning on him due to the fact that they only have one other weapon in their passing attack.

 
Adam Harstad said:
tone1oc said:
werdnoynek said:
water1 said:
I'm not saying Reed might not be special. I'm saying the jury is still out for me. Hopefully he is I own him.
Click to expand...
So what exactly are you saying when you say "the jury is still out"? Because I'm clearly confused...
Click to expand...
He's had one great game, two pretty good games and the rest are meh. I love his talent and by no means would argue that he doesn't have the potential, but he still on the large is very TD dependent (like most non-elite TEs) and hasn't been stacking up numbers week to week. I think its more than fair to say the jury is still out.
Click to expand...
Here is a complete list of every single TE in the entire NFL who has scored 8+ points in every game this year (PPR scoring):

  1. Jordan Reed
Here is a complete list of every rookie tight end in NFL history who has averaged more yards per game than Jordan Reed.

  1. Mike Ditka
Here is a complete list of every rookie tight end in NFL history who has averaged more receptions per game than Jordan Reed.

Click to expand...
While not determinative, the trend has been very good as well. The so-called "meh" games largely came during his first 4 games in the NFL (he is a rookie after all). His last 4 have been excellent.

His 76% catch to target ratio (given the large volume of targets) has been very impressive as well.

 
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I like Jordan Reed, I guess I've become against him for the purposes of this thread. My point was simply that there is plenty of room for doubt as far as him being great. I own Reed in a lot of leagues (Probably thanks to this thread, ironic?) and hope he continues to show, but there are some knocks.

That list of rookie TE facts did nothing to talk me more into Reed being great, but rather he is winning a pretty large ##### smelling contest :toilet:

 
The primary issue with me is that he only has 3 TDs on 44 Receptions. To me there is still too much risk in depending on a TE to make 6 or 7, 8 grabs for 60-70 yds, which admittedly is a good game in PPR.

I'd like to see him find the endzone more and improve his ypc before I'm ready to consider him a legit 1st tier TE.

 
tone1oc said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
water1 said:
So that's it? You're convinced he's the next big thing at TE?
Click to expand...
What does "the next big thing" mean? He's a young TE producing like a TE1, with a young QB who loves throwing to him. He probably isn't ever going to rival Gronk or Graham, but he's obviously good and obviously productive.
Click to expand...
A lot of people were saying that about Kyle Rudolph last year.
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Kyle Rudolph's fantasy relevance relied almost entirely on TD's. Not the case here.

 
tone1oc said:
The primary issue with me is that he only has 3 TDs on 44 Receptions. To me there is still too much risk in depending on a TE to make 6 or 7, 8 grabs for 60-70 yds, which admittedly is a good game in PPR.

I'd like to see him find the endzone more and improve his ypc before I'm ready to consider him a legit 1st tier TE.
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You're looking at it exactly backwards. You want to bet on the high reception/yardage guys to eventually score a proper ratio of TD's. Not the other way around. TD's are hard to predict, period. Yards and receptions are a much more reliable indicator.

 
Would you say a TD is hard to predict from Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski? I think its a bit myopic to say that TDs are purely just random things that happen, especially when speaking in the context of him being great, not simply a TE1

 
tone1oc said:
Would you say a TD is hard to predict from Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski? I think its a bit myopic to say that TDs are purely just random things that happen, especially when speaking in the context of him being great, not simply a TE1
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You must be quite new to this hobby.

 
BigSteelThrill said:
tone1oc said:
Would you say a TD is hard to predict from Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski? I think its a bit myopic to say that TDs are purely just random things that happen, especially when speaking in the context of him being great, not simply a TE1
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You must be quite new to this hobby.
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I understand the value of not depending on TD's fully. In fact I just recently traded Julius Thomas because of his astronomically high TD rate. I get it.

But again, my argument is in the context of greatness, and to me you can throw that thinking out the window with the modern elite TE. Because in order to be elite you need to score double digit touchdowns. That's where my bar is at.

 
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Fortunately, your bar isn't really representative of anything but your own unrealistic, arbitrary expectations. Double digit TD's are not the norm for any TE, elite or not. The only TE's outside of Gronk/Graham to score 10 TD's or more in the past three seasons were Gates in '10 when he was still a HOF talent, and Marcedes Lewis in a fluky year.

So, basically, you don't seem to know exactly how high "your bar" is set.

I think most would admit no one expects Reed to be Gronk or Graham.

 
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ConnSKINS26 said:
Fortunately, your bar isn't really representative of anything but your own unrealistic, arbitrary expectations. Double digit TD's are not the norm for any TE, elite or not. The only TE's outside of Gronk/Graham to score 10 TD's or more in the past three seasons were Gates in '10 when he was still a HOF talent, and Marcedes Lewis in a fluky year.

So, basically, you don't seem to know exactly how high "your bar" is set.

I think most would admit no one expects Reed to be Gronk or Graham.
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werdnoynek said:
water1 said:
I'm not saying Reed might not be special. I'm saying the jury is still out for me. Hopefully he is I own him.
Click to expand...
So what exactly are you saying when you say "the jury is still out"? Because I'm clearly confused...
Click to expand...
This is what my whole argument stemmed from. I'm not the one who stated he is "special" or as I used, great, and further dismiss the notion that anyone could question whether he was.

I think that my bar for a special TE would be 1000+ yds and around 10 TDs. Interested as to what you feel a special TE is?

 
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ConnSKINS26 said:
Fortunately, your bar isn't really representative of anything but your own unrealistic, arbitrary expectations. Double digit TD's are not the norm for any TE, elite or not. The only TE's outside of Gronk/Graham to score 10 TD's or more in the past three seasons were Gates in '10 when he was still a HOF talent, and Marcedes Lewis in a fluky year.

So, basically, you don't seem to know exactly how high "your bar" is set.

I think most would admit no one expects Reed to be Gronk or Graham.
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I'm happy with him being a Jason Witten

 
It just baffles me how Reed can be knocked while playing at this level in his rookie season. I'm sick of the Gronk and Graham card when it comes to gauging TEs. There are going to be ten or so teams in every league that don't own either of those two and are going to have to dig and fight for the next best options. Reed has made a case that he belongs in that next tier of about 5 TEs that is going to give you enough points to keep you competitive or even have a slight advantage over half the league. Hernandez is the obvious comparison which I've heard quite a bit and I think it's spot-on. He's not there yet but it's a more realistic comparison which his owners would be more than happy with.

 
tone1oc said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Fortunately, your bar isn't really representative of anything but your own unrealistic, arbitrary expectations. Double digit TD's are not the norm for any TE, elite or not. The only TE's outside of Gronk/Graham to score 10 TD's or more in the past three seasons were Gates in '10 when he was still a HOF talent, and Marcedes Lewis in a fluky year.

So, basically, you don't seem to know exactly how high "your bar" is set.

I think most would admit no one expects Reed to be Gronk or Graham.
Click to expand...
werdnoynek said:
water1 said:
I'm not saying Reed might not be special. I'm saying the jury is still out for me. Hopefully he is I own him.
Click to expand...
So what exactly are you saying when you say "the jury is still out"? Because I'm clearly confused...
Click to expand...
This is what my whole argument stemmed from. I'm not the one who stated he is "special" or as I used, great, and further dismiss the notion that anyone could question whether he was. I think that my bar for a special TE would be 1000+ yds and around 10 TDs. Interested as to what you feel a special TE is?
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Consistency helps here.

He's the #7 TE on average this year. He has scored close to his average every week. Since his bye, he's the #4 TE behind only vd, gronk and Graham. As a rookie. Maybe he never gets better, but this is promising and not a bad ceiling if that's what it is.

As for what he does special, from what I see, he catches the ball remarkably well. He benefits from being the #2 receiver, but he earned his way to that role.

 
water1 said:
Where is he special? His speed? His hands? His route running? Or is he just really solid on everything so his numbers are inflated because they are leaning on him due to the fact that they only have one other weapon in their passing attack.
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You should really watch more football. If you're as clueless about all players as you are about Reed, you must be getting curbstomped in your fantasy leagues.

 
water1 said:
Where is he special? His speed? His hands? His route running? Or is he just really solid on everything so his numbers are inflated because they are leaning on him due to the fact that they only have one other weapon in their passing attack.
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Elite-level pass catcher who is money on third down. 1A option for RG3, not option 2.
 
He was a hair from catching a second TD on that last drive of the game. Dropped in the end zone. It was well defended but catchable. I bet he's beating himself up over that one. Still just shows he was that close to a monster game.

 
Graham and Gronk have messed up everyone's perception of TEs, esp in FF. Graham is the #1 receiver in my league. That's ridiculous. To judge a guy as not being the next Graham or Gronk is shortsighted and will cause you to miss the next good TE in FF.

 
Otis said:
He was a hair from catching a second TD on that last drive of the game. Dropped in the end zone. It was well defended but catchable. I bet he's beating himself up over that one. Still just shows he was that close to a monster game.
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Just coming in to post this. Would have been nice if he caught the game tying TD. :wall:

 
JackReacher said:
water1 said:
Where is he special? His speed? His hands? His route running? Or is he just really solid on everything so his numbers are inflated because they are leaning on him due to the fact that they only have one other weapon in their passing attack.
Click to expand...
Elite-level pass catcher who is money on third down. 1A option for RG3, not option 2.
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Garcon is 2nd in the NFL in targets (granted, that's a little skewed as he's played more games than most receivers)

Reed is just out of the top 40, one less game than Garcon.

This week Garcon had 10 targets, Reed had 9.

They provide different things for RG3, but Garcon is still clearly the top receiver on the team.

 
Hang 10 said:
Otis said:
He was a hair from catching a second TD on that last drive of the game. Dropped in the end zone. It was well defended but catchable. I bet he's beating himself up over that one. Still just shows he was that close to a monster game.
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Just coming in to post this. Would have been nice if he caught the game tying TD. :wall:
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Missed that as I was asleep by then, but :kicksrock:

 
Hang 10 said:
Otis said:
He was a hair from catching a second TD on that last drive of the game. Dropped in the end zone. It was well defended but catchable. I bet he's beating himself up over that one. Still just shows he was that close to a monster game.
Click to expand...
Just coming in to post this. Would have been nice if he caught the game tying TD. :wall:
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Looked like he was being mauled on that catch. Should have been holding or PI. I'm not going to complain about his week, which should be top 2 among TEs this week but I got a tough opponent this week and every little TD here or there counts. :wall:

 
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