Jordan Reed - TE - SF (2 Viewers)

[JackReacher]

Where is he special? His speed? His hands? His route running? Or is he just really solid on everything so his numbers are inflated because they are leaning on him due to the fact that they only have one other weapon in their passing attack.

Elite-level pass catcher who is money on third down. 1A option for RG3, not option 2.

Garcon is 2nd in the NFL in targets (granted, that's a little skewed as he's played more games than most receivers)

Reed is just out of the top 40, one less game than Garcon.

This week Garcon had 10 targets, Reed had 9.

They provide different things for RG3, but Garcon is still clearly the top receiver on the team.

Garcon 1, Reed 1A

 

[stathawk]

He was a hair from catching a second TD on that last drive of the game. Dropped in the end zone. It was well defended but catchable. I bet he's beating himself up over that one. Still just shows he was that close to a monster game.

Just coming in to post this. Would have been nice if he caught the game tying TD.

Looked like he was being mauled on that catch. Should have been holding or PI. I'm not going to complain about his week, which should be top 2 among TEs this week but I got a tough opponent this week and every little TD here or there counts.

I doubt he ends up being in the top 2 TE this week considering he was the #2 scoring TE LAST NIGHT. Now if you would have said that about John Carlson, I might bite.

 

[JackReacher]

Adam’s posts about Reed’s comps with past rookie TEs is the most relevant data for me. Certainly impressive how Reed stacks up considering he was injured for the majority of training camp. I believe he only played in one pre-season game. He flashed in that game and I posted my thoughts about his performance in this thread.

Reed’s rise is doubly impressive when you factor that he was drafted to a team that had a full-house at tight end. The Redskins had four legitimate TEs on roster, headed by a very solid, yet maligned Fred Davis. Reed’s sudden vault to the top of the heap, making Davis invisible in just a half-season, is very impressive.

As for future potential? Reed has elite hands and excels at working middle of the field. He is and will be an absolute stud in TE-premium leagues. Will he ever be a TD-hog? That is hard to predict but my gut tells me he will be average about 6 touchdowns a year, a la Gates.

Only downside I see right now with Reed is he looks to be the type that gets nicked up from time-to-time, so you will want insurance with a lesser TE 1.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I like Jordan Reed, I guess I've become against him for the purposes of this thread. My point was simply that there is plenty of room for doubt as far as him being great. I own Reed in a lot of leagues (Probably thanks to this thread, ironic?) and hope he continues to show, but there are some knocks.

That list of rookie TE facts did nothing to talk me more into Reed being great, but rather he is winning a pretty large ##### smelling contest

That's totally fair. Rookie TEs, as a class, have been pretty terrible. Let's compare him to some veterans, instead. Here are the top 10 tight ends in career receiving yards per game (minimum 8 games played):

Rob Gronkowski - 64.07

Jimmy Graham - 62.85

Kellen Winslow, Sr. - 61.84

Jordan Reed - 60.88

Antonio Gates - 57.23

Tony Gonzalez - 56.27

Jason Witten - 56.27

Aaron Hernandez - 51.47

Kellen Winslow, Jr. - 51.19

Shannon Sharpe - 49.56

Worth noting that everyone is right that so far Jordan Reed is no Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. So far, he's very nearly two full yards per game worse than Graham. The Gronkowski comparison is even more lopsided, with Gronk holding a career 3.19 yard per game advantage. Over the course of a full season, that equates to a 51-yard edge.

ETA: I'm not saying that Jordan Reed is a Hall of Famer. I'm just saying there is absolutely no way to be the slightest bit disappointed or unimpressed with what Jordan Reed has accomplished so far. I don't think we realize the sheer magnitude of what he's doing. Statistics like this help provide some much-needed context to ensure this season doesn't go unappreciated.

ETA#2: Over the 3 games since being named a starter (note: does not include his 100 yard "breakout game"), Reed averages 63 receiving yards per game. This ignores his 18 yard rush- add that and Reed has 69 yards from scrimmage per game since being named the starter. His lowest total over that span was 55 yards. Over his last FOUR games (i.e. including his "breakout game"), Reed is averaging 85.25 offensive yards per game. These sample sizes are tiny, but if they're anything to go by, Reed's ypg number is trending up. He could very easily end this season at the top of that list.

 

[Adam Harstad]

He was a hair from catching a second TD on that last drive of the game. Dropped in the end zone. It was well defended but catchable. I bet he's beating himself up over that one. Still just shows he was that close to a monster game.

I would argue that it was more than well defended. Reed was held. Should have been a flag and an automatic first.

 

[FUBAR]

I like Jordan Reed, I guess I've become against him for the purposes of this thread. My point was simply that there is plenty of room for doubt as far as him being great. I own Reed in a lot of leagues (Probably thanks to this thread, ironic?) and hope he continues to show, but there are some knocks.

That list of rookie TE facts did nothing to talk me more into Reed being great, but rather he is winning a pretty large ##### smelling contest

That's totally fair. Rookie TEs, as a class, have been pretty terrible. Let's compare him to some veterans, instead. Here are the top 10 tight ends in career receiving yards per game (minimum 8 games played):

Rob Gronkowski - 64.07

Jimmy Graham - 62.85

Kellen Winslow, Sr. - 61.84

Jordan Reed - 60.88

Antonio Gates - 57.23

Tony Gonzalez - 56.27

Jason Witten - 56.27

Aaron Hernandez - 51.47

Kellen Winslow, Jr. - 51.19

Shannon Sharpe - 49.56

Worth noting that everyone is right that so far Jordan Reed is no Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. So far, he's very nearly two full yards per game worse than Graham. The Gronkowski comparison is even more lopsided, with Gronk holding a career 3.19 yard per game advantage. Over the course of a full season, that equates to a 51-yard edge.

ETA: I'm not saying that Jordan Reed is a Hall of Famer. I'm just saying there is absolutely no way to be the slightest bit disappointed or unimpressed with what Jordan Reed has accomplished so far. I don't think we realize the sheer magnitude of what he's doing. Statistics like this help provide some much-needed context to ensure this season doesn't go unappreciated.

ETA#2: Over the 3 games since being named a starter (note: does not include his 100 yard "breakout game"), Reed averages 63 receiving yards per game. This ignores his 18 yard rush- add that and Reed has 69 yards from scrimmage per game since being named the starter. His lowest total over that span was 55 yards. Over his last FOUR games (i.e. including his "breakout game"), Reed is averaging 85.25 offensive yards per game. These sample sizes are tiny, but if they're anything to go by, Reed's ypg number is trending up. He could very easily end this season at the top of that list.

Tiny sample size being compared to careers. How does he stack up against all-time best TE seasons?

Your first comment misses the point IMO, Gronk, Graham, Gates, Gonzalez (notice a trend?) are TD machines. Reed is unlikely to be that, but that's okay with me in PPR leagues. That he's ahead of Witten tells me a lot.

 

[Cheesedawg]

He was a hair from catching a second TD on that last drive of the game. Dropped in the end zone. It was well defended but catchable. I bet he's beating himself up over that one. Still just shows he was that close to a monster game.

I would argue that it was more than well defended. Reed was held. Should have been a flag and an automatic first.

If he isn't held, it is an easy TD btw. I like the action he gets in the red zone.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I like Jordan Reed, I guess I've become against him for the purposes of this thread. My point was simply that there is plenty of room for doubt as far as him being great. I own Reed in a lot of leagues (Probably thanks to this thread, ironic?) and hope he continues to show, but there are some knocks.

That list of rookie TE facts did nothing to talk me more into Reed being great, but rather he is winning a pretty large ##### smelling contest

That's totally fair. Rookie TEs, as a class, have been pretty terrible. Let's compare him to some veterans, instead. Here are the top 10 tight ends in career receiving yards per game (minimum 8 games played):

Rob Gronkowski - 64.07

Jimmy Graham - 62.85

Kellen Winslow, Sr. - 61.84

Jordan Reed - 60.88

Antonio Gates - 57.23

Tony Gonzalez - 56.27

Jason Witten - 56.27

Aaron Hernandez - 51.47

Kellen Winslow, Jr. - 51.19

Shannon Sharpe - 49.56

Worth noting that everyone is right that so far Jordan Reed is no Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. So far, he's very nearly two full yards per game worse than Graham. The Gronkowski comparison is even more lopsided, with Gronk holding a career 3.19 yard per game advantage. Over the course of a full season, that equates to a 51-yard edge.

ETA: I'm not saying that Jordan Reed is a Hall of Famer. I'm just saying there is absolutely no way to be the slightest bit disappointed or unimpressed with what Jordan Reed has accomplished so far. I don't think we realize the sheer magnitude of what he's doing. Statistics like this help provide some much-needed context to ensure this season doesn't go unappreciated.

ETA#2: Over the 3 games since being named a starter (note: does not include his 100 yard "breakout game"), Reed averages 63 receiving yards per game. This ignores his 18 yard rush- add that and Reed has 69 yards from scrimmage per game since being named the starter. His lowest total over that span was 55 yards. Over his last FOUR games (i.e. including his "breakout game"), Reed is averaging 85.25 offensive yards per game. These sample sizes are tiny, but if they're anything to go by, Reed's ypg number is trending up. He could very easily end this season at the top of that list.

Tiny sample size being compared to careers. How does he stack up against all-time best TE seasons?

Your first comment misses the point IMO, Gronk, Graham, Gates, Gonzalez (notice a trend?) are TD machines. Reed is unlikely to be that, but that's okay with me in PPR leagues. That he's ahead of Witten tells me a lot.

Tony Gonzalez had 7 or fewer TDs in 12 of his 17 seasons. Tony Gonzalez averages 6.53 touchdowns per every 16 games for his career. Jordan Reed's current pace would produce 6 TDs per 16 games.

Edit: How does Reed stack up to the ALL TIME BEST TE seasons? Not great, but he's a rookie. It's hard to check PPR, since the DD and HDD both use standard scoring, but it looks to me like Reed's PPG average would rank in the all-time top 40 in PPR. Reed's current average would stand as the 6th best season of Tony Gonzalez's 17-year career.

 

[Concept Coop]

Jordan Reed's current pace would produce 6 TDs per 16 games.

And includes games that he played less than 50% of his teams's offensive snaps. I expect his playing time to hold steady, at least, if not continue to increase.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

He's currently averaging 16 points per game in my ppr league since his bye week which would put him behind only, Graham, Gronk, VD and Thomas during that stretch. the fact that he's more of a hybrid style TE is a little concerning should Shanahan leave the Skins next year or the year after. He greatly benefits from a creative offense that can move him around and take full advantage of his versatility and ability to create mismatches all over the field.

 

[Concept Coop]

He greatly benefits from a creative offense that can move him around and take full advantage of his versatility and ability to create mismatches all over the field.

I don't see that offense when I watch the Skins, myself. They're doing what they can to get him the ball, as they should. But I haven't seen anything especially unique, in terms of his use. If Shanny is around next year, I expect to see the offense more tailored to his talents.

 

[ebsteelers]

CHOO CHOO!!!

 

[Milkman]

They move him in motion all the time. Lining him up in the backfield on a regular basis. They also line him up out wide a lot. He's not a physical freak like Graham, Gronk, or even Witten. He has good/great hands, decent speed, and runs good routes. He's not really elite in any of those areas but he's above average to good in all of them which as a package makes him very good right now. He's a rookie so he could get better but there's also a chance, because of the high usage, that we are seeing something closer to his ceiling right now and not his floor.

All I'm saying is don't treat this like it's his floor because omg he's a rookie and he's on all these all time great lists and he's only going to get better. There's a chance he never has a better season then what he's having right now.

 

[ebsteelers]

CHOO CHOO!!!

 

[ConnSKINS26]

He greatly benefits from a creative offense that can move him around and take full advantage of his versatility and ability to create mismatches all over the field.

I don't see that offense when I watch the Skins, myself. They're doing what they can to get him the ball, as they should. But I haven't seen anything especially unique, in terms of his use. If Shanny is around next year, I expect to see the offense more tailored to his talents.

It's not unique, but we're motioning him out to WR pretty often. And we doing it in the redzone quite a bit. Everyone worried about TD's is overreacting, I think. The Skins are showing a concerted effort to target him in the endzone. Hell, he motioned out wide and caught a fade for a TD--that is a big boy play, and you don't seem any TE's doing that.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

They move him in motion all the time. Lining him up in the backfield on a regular basis. They also line him up out wide a lot. He's not a physical freak like Graham, Gronk, or even Witten. He has good/great hands, decent speed, and runs good routes. He's not really elite in any of those areas but he's above average to good in all of them which as a package makes him very good right now. He's a rookie so he could get better but there's also a chance, because of the high usage, that we are seeing something closer to his ceiling right now and not his floor.

All I'm saying is don't treat this like it's his floor because omg he's a rookie and he's on all these all time great lists and he's only going to get better. There's a chance he never has a better season then what he's having right now.

Reed is absolutely more of a physical specimen than Jason Witten, who has nothing special, physically, going for him other than maybe his height. And even with that, he's never been a TD machine. His game has always been dependent on his hands and his route-running. Reed is much more athletic with the ball in his hands.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I like Jordan Reed, I guess I've become against him for the purposes of this thread. My point was simply that there is plenty of room for doubt as far as him being great. I own Reed in a lot of leagues (Probably thanks to this thread, ironic?) and hope he continues to show, but there are some knocks.

That list of rookie TE facts did nothing to talk me more into Reed being great, but rather he is winning a pretty large ##### smelling contest

That's totally fair. Rookie TEs, as a class, have been pretty terrible. Let's compare him to some veterans, instead. Here are the top 10 tight ends in career receiving yards per game (minimum 8 games played):

Rob Gronkowski - 64.07

Jimmy Graham - 62.85

Kellen Winslow, Sr. - 61.84

Jordan Reed - 60.88

Antonio Gates - 57.23

Tony Gonzalez - 56.27

Jason Witten - 56.27

Aaron Hernandez - 51.47

Kellen Winslow, Jr. - 51.19

Shannon Sharpe - 49.56

Worth noting that everyone is right that so far Jordan Reed is no Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. So far, he's very nearly two full yards per game worse than Graham. The Gronkowski comparison is even more lopsided, with Gronk holding a career 3.19 yard per game advantage. Over the course of a full season, that equates to a 51-yard edge.

ETA: I'm not saying that Jordan Reed is a Hall of Famer. I'm just saying there is absolutely no way to be the slightest bit disappointed or unimpressed with what Jordan Reed has accomplished so far. I don't think we realize the sheer magnitude of what he's doing. Statistics like this help provide some much-needed context to ensure this season doesn't go unappreciated.

ETA#2: Over the 3 games since being named a starter (note: does not include his 100 yard "breakout game"), Reed averages 63 receiving yards per game. This ignores his 18 yard rush- add that and Reed has 69 yards from scrimmage per game since being named the starter. His lowest total over that span was 55 yards. Over his last FOUR games (i.e. including his "breakout game"), Reed is averaging 85.25 offensive yards per game. These sample sizes are tiny, but if they're anything to go by, Reed's ypg number is trending up. He could very easily end this season at the top of that list.

Tiny sample size being compared to careers. How does he stack up against all-time best TE seasons?

Your first comment misses the point IMO, Gronk, Graham, Gates, Gonzalez (notice a trend?) are TD machines. Reed is unlikely to be that, but that's okay with me in PPR leagues. That he's ahead of Witten tells me a lot.

Tony Gonzalez had 7 or fewer TDs in 12 of his 17 seasons. Tony Gonzalez averages 6.53 touchdowns per every 16 games for his career. Jordan Reed's current pace would produce 6 TDs per 16 games.

Edit: How does Reed stack up to the ALL TIME BEST TE seasons? Not great, but he's a rookie. It's hard to check PPR, since the DD and HDD both use standard scoring, but it looks to me like Reed's PPG average would rank in the all-time top 40 in PPR. Reed's current average would stand as the 6th best season of Tony Gonzalez's 17-year career.

I think the model here is Shannon Sharpe.

 

[Concept Coop]

They move him in motion all the time. Lining him up in the backfield on a regular basis. They also line him up out wide a lot. He's not a physical freak like Graham, Gronk, or even Witten. He has good/great hands, decent speed, and runs good routes. He's not really elite in any of those areas but he's above average to good in all of them which as a package makes him very good right now. He's a rookie so he could get better but there's also a chance, because of the high usage, that we are seeing something closer to his ceiling right now and not his floor.

All I'm saying is don't treat this like it's his floor because omg he's a rookie and he's on all these all time great lists and he's only going to get better. There's a chance he never has a better season then what he's having right now.

A lot of teams send their TE in motion, and line them up in the slot. Reed hasn't lined up on the outside much, except the TD catch on the fade. In today's NFL, his usage has been pretty standard, IMO. There are few gadget plays here and there, but they don't have time to put much in for him, that wasn't already part of the gameplan when he was a question mark, and Davis the starter.

He's as fluid as it gets for the TE spot - that aspect of his game is elite. His routes have been very crisps - something I worried about as Florida isn't known for their route-tree. He has very good hands, very good game speed, he's very elusive and agile.

So if your point is: "He's not Gronk/Graham" - I guess my response is: "Okay". In history, only Gronk and Graham have been Gronk and Graham. If they are the new standard, we're setting everyone up to fail.

He's every bit the athlete that Witten is, for the record. Much more fluid, much quicker, better football speed, not as big or strong.

 

[mr roboto]

This kid is having a historic season as a rookie with a young promising QB and a veteran head coach. Yet we find things to ##### about anyway. Incredible but not surprising.

 

[doyler]

*hopes that he stays a little quieter and falls far below where Graham and Gronk are drafted*

 

[Milkman]

He's every bit the athlete that Witten is, for the record. Much more fluid, much quicker, better football speed, not as big or strong.

Witten is a freak at 6'6 bro. He's no Witten. It still doesn't mean he can't be a great TE in this league. There are stories about his work ethic and drive being elite. That's underrated imo. It gives him a better chance at improving in the future. He's not a physically imposing player so he is going to need to be an great/elite in a lot of other areas or I see him dropping into that TE7-TE10ish area as soon as they get more weapons on that offense.

Also I noticed that they lined him out wide a couple of times and in the backfield a lot. They move him all over the place not just the slot. The point is there is a reason he's putting up historical numbers as a rookie. They are featuring him in the offense as a rookie. How many rookie TE's have been given that opportunity?

Are they doing that because he's special or are they doing that because their WR2 is Leonard Hankerson? That's the question for me.

 

[Spin]

I like Jordan Reed, I guess I've become against him for the purposes of this thread. My point was simply that there is plenty of room for doubt as far as him being great. I own Reed in a lot of leagues (Probably thanks to this thread, ironic?) and hope he continues to show, but there are some knocks.

That list of rookie TE facts did nothing to talk me more into Reed being great, but rather he is winning a pretty large ##### smelling contest

That's totally fair. Rookie TEs, as a class, have been pretty terrible. Let's compare him to some veterans, instead. Here are the top 10 tight ends in career receiving yards per game (minimum 8 games played):

Rob Gronkowski - 64.07

Jimmy Graham - 62.85

Kellen Winslow, Sr. - 61.84

Jordan Reed - 60.88

Antonio Gates - 57.23

Tony Gonzalez - 56.27

Jason Witten - 56.27

Aaron Hernandez - 51.47

Kellen Winslow, Jr. - 51.19

Shannon Sharpe - 49.56

Worth noting that everyone is right that so far Jordan Reed is no Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. So far, he's very nearly two full yards per game worse than Graham. The Gronkowski comparison is even more lopsided, with Gronk holding a career 3.19 yard per game advantage. Over the course of a full season, that equates to a 51-yard edge.

ETA: I'm not saying that Jordan Reed is a Hall of Famer. I'm just saying there is absolutely no way to be the slightest bit disappointed or unimpressed with what Jordan Reed has accomplished so far. I don't think we realize the sheer magnitude of what he's doing. Statistics like this help provide some much-needed context to ensure this season doesn't go unappreciated.

ETA#2: Over the 3 games since being named a starter (note: does not include his 100 yard "breakout game"), Reed averages 63 receiving yards per game. This ignores his 18 yard rush- add that and Reed has 69 yards from scrimmage per game since being named the starter. His lowest total over that span was 55 yards. Over his last FOUR games (i.e. including his "breakout game"), Reed is averaging 85.25 offensive yards per game. These sample sizes are tiny, but if they're anything to go by, Reed's ypg number is trending up. He could very easily end this season at the top of that list.

Tiny sample size being compared to careers. How does he stack up against all-time best TE seasons?

Your first comment misses the point IMO, Gronk, Graham, Gates, Gonzalez (notice a trend?) are TD machines. Reed is unlikely to be that, but that's okay with me in PPR leagues. That he's ahead of Witten tells me a lot.

Tony Gonzalez had 7 or fewer TDs in 12 of his 17 seasons. Tony Gonzalez averages 6.53 touchdowns per every 16 games for his career. Jordan Reed's current pace would produce 6 TDs per 16 games.

Edit: How does Reed stack up to the ALL TIME BEST TE seasons? Not great, but he's a rookie. It's hard to check PPR, since the DD and HDD both use standard scoring, but it looks to me like Reed's PPG average would rank in the all-time top 40 in PPR. Reed's current average would stand as the 6th best season of Tony Gonzalez's 17-year career.

45th according to my spread sheet, but my data only goes back to 1981. Note: I excluded all seasons with less than 8 games played, and includes everyone TE from 2013 that has also played at least 8 games (so excludes Gronk's current season). He fits in right after 1994 Shannon Sharpe, and right before 1984 Todd Christensen.

 

[Concept Coop]

Witten is a freak at 6'6 bro. He's no Witten. It still doesn't mean he can't be a great TE in this league. There are stories about his work ethic and drive being elite. That's underrated imo. It gives him a better chance at improving in the future. He's not a physically imposing player so he is going to need to be an great/elite in a lot of other areas or I see him dropping into that TE7-TE10ish area as soon as they get more weapons on that offense.

Also I noticed that they lined him out wide a couple of times and in the backfield a lot. They move him all over the place not just the slot. The point is there is a reason he's putting up historical numbers as a rookie. They are featuring him in the offense as a rookie. How many rookie TE's have been given that opportunity?

Are they doing that because he's special or are they doing that because their WR2 is Leonard Hankerson? That's the question for me.

At this point, I don't know where the goalposts are. He's not Gronk or Graham, and he's not 6'6". His team doesn't have a legit NFL WR2. You do with that information what you will, I suppose. I don't agree the conclusions you're drawing.

A couple, final points:

-"Moving a TE around" is standard practice. The coach after Shanny will do it, and the coach after him, too.

-Jason Witten is not a freak athlete. He's tall, but does very little with that, as he has little leaping ability. He makes his living by being where he needs to be for his QB, and catching the ball when targeted. He's not fast, he's not quick, he's not a freak athlete.

 

[Spin]

Tiny sample size being compared to careers. How does he stack up against all-time best TE seasons?

Your first comment misses the point IMO, Gronk, Graham, Gates, Gonzalez (notice a trend?) are TD machines. Reed is unlikely to be that, but that's okay with me in PPR leagues. That he's ahead of Witten tells me a lot.

Tony Gonzalez had 7 or fewer TDs in 12 of his 17 seasons. Tony Gonzalez averages 6.53 touchdowns per every 16 games for his career. Jordan Reed's current pace would produce 6 TDs per 16 games.

Edit: How does Reed stack up to the ALL TIME BEST TE seasons? Not great, but he's a rookie. It's hard to check PPR, since the DD and HDD both use standard scoring, but it looks to me like Reed's PPG average would rank in the all-time top 40 in PPR. Reed's current average would stand as the 6th best season of Tony Gonzalez's 17-year career.

45th according to my spread sheet, but my data only goes back to 1981. Note: I excluded all seasons with less than 8 games played, and includes everyone TE from 2013 that has also played at least 8 games (so excludes Gronk's current season). He fits in right after 1994 Shannon Sharpe, and right before 1984 Todd Christensen.

Number of seasons by player that have finished ahead of Reed's current pace (ppr from 1981-2013 min of 8 games)

Rob Gronkowski 2

Antonio Gates 7

Jimmy Graham 3

Todd Christensen 2

Kellen Winslow 3

Dallas Clark 1

Tony Gonzalez 7

Shannon Sharpe 3

Ben Coates 1

Mark Bavaro 1

Vernon Davis 2

Jason Witten 3

Aaron Hernandez 1

Owen Daniels 1

Ozzie Newsome 1

Dave Casper 1

Ernest Givins 1

Joe Senser 1

Julius Thomas 1

Jordan Cameron 1

Owen Daniels, Dave Casper, Ozzie Newsome and one of Kellen Winslow's seasons came on 8 or 9 games.

 

[JFS171]

Count me among those that just don't get the "he does nothing that's elite" refrain. Watch the games. Don't get me wrong, there's obviously a place in the game for the metrics - height, weight, agility, speed, etc. But at some point, you've got to just watch the kid play. Some height/weight/speed freaks can't play a lick of football.

Point being, the whole with Reed is clearly greater than the sum of the individual parts. His route running and agility create separation, even if he's not the elite-level athlete that Jimmy Graham is (who is?). His catch radius appears to be pretty huge to me when I watch him play, and his body control is excellent for his size. I just don't see a lot of linebacker-sized guys moving through trash like running backs in the open field.

Maybe I need to watch Witten again, because Reed seems to be a few nothces above in fluidity, athleticism, etc. He's not 6'6", but who cares?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

This kid is having a historic season as a rookie with a young promising QB and a veteran head coach. Yet we find things to ##### about anyway. Incredible but not surprising.

Maybe it was already mentioned but RGIII didn't throw to the TE much in college, so there is still that extra ceiling as long as the QB can remain upright.

 

[werdnoynek]

Count me among those that just don't get the "he does nothing that's elite" refrain. Watch the games. Don't get me wrong, there's obviously a place in the game for the metrics - height, weight, agility, speed, etc. But at some point, you've got to just watch the kid play. Some height/weight/speed freaks can't play a lick of football.

Point being, the whole with Reed is clearly greater than the sum of the individual parts. His route running and agility create separation, even if he's not the elite-level athlete that Jimmy Graham is (who is?). His catch radius appears to be pretty huge to me when I watch him play, and his body control is excellent for his size. I just don't see a lot of linebacker-sized guys moving through trash like running backs in the open field.

Maybe I need to watch Witten again, because Reed seems to be a few nothces above in fluidity, athleticism, etc. He's not 6'6", but who cares?

 

[Otis]

He is Aaron Hernandez but with a worse QB than Tom Brady.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Tiny sample size being compared to careers. How does he stack up against all-time best TE seasons?

Your first comment misses the point IMO, Gronk, Graham, Gates, Gonzalez (notice a trend?) are TD machines. Reed is unlikely to be that, but that's okay with me in PPR leagues. That he's ahead of Witten tells me a lot.

Tony Gonzalez had 7 or fewer TDs in 12 of his 17 seasons. Tony Gonzalez averages 6.53 touchdowns per every 16 games for his career. Jordan Reed's current pace would produce 6 TDs per 16 games.

Edit: How does Reed stack up to the ALL TIME BEST TE seasons? Not great, but he's a rookie. It's hard to check PPR, since the DD and HDD both use standard scoring, but it looks to me like Reed's PPG average would rank in the all-time top 40 in PPR. Reed's current average would stand as the 6th best season of Tony Gonzalez's 17-year career.

45th according to my spread sheet, but my data only goes back to 1981. Note: I excluded all seasons with less than 8 games played, and includes everyone TE from 2013 that has also played at least 8 games (so excludes Gronk's current season). He fits in right after 1994 Shannon Sharpe, and right before 1984 Todd Christensen.

Number of seasons by player that have finished ahead of Reed's current pace (ppr from 1981-2013 min of 8 games)

Rob Gronkowski 2

Antonio Gates 7

Jimmy Graham 3

Todd Christensen 2

Kellen Winslow 3

Dallas Clark 1

Tony Gonzalez 7

Shannon Sharpe 3

Ben Coates 1

Mark Bavaro 1

Vernon Davis 2

Jason Witten 3

Aaron Hernandez 1

Owen Daniels 1

Ozzie Newsome 1

Dave Casper 1

Ernest Givins 1

Joe Senser 1

Julius Thomas 1

Jordan Cameron 1

Owen Daniels, Dave Casper, Ozzie Newsome and one of Kellen Winslow's seasons came on 8 or 9 games.

Wasn't Ernest Givins a WR? Skinny dude that played in Warren Moon's Run n Shoot?

 

[Spin]

Wasn't Ernest Givins a WR? Skinny dude that played in Warren Moon's Run n Shoot?

I scraped all of my data from Pro-Football-Reference. They have him listed as a WR from 86-90. A TE from 90-94. And a WR again from 94-95.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GiviEr00.htm

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

He is Aaron Hernandez but with a worse QB than Tom Brady.

But without the threat of a HOF tight end stealing targets.

 

[FUBAR]

Count me among those that just don't get the "he does nothing that's elite" refrain. Watch the games. Don't get me wrong, there's obviously a place in the game for the metrics - height, weight, agility, speed, etc. But at some point, you've got to just watch the kid play. Some height/weight/speed freaks can't play a lick of football.

Point being, the whole with Reed is clearly greater than the sum of the individual parts. His route running and agility create separation, even if he's not the elite-level athlete that Jimmy Graham is (who is?). His catch radius appears to be pretty huge to me when I watch him play, and his body control is excellent for his size. I just don't see a lot of linebacker-sized guys moving through trash like running backs in the open field.

Maybe I need to watch Witten again, because Reed seems to be a few nothces above in fluidity, athleticism, etc. He's not 6'6", but who cares?

I'm looking more at utilization, hands and work ethic when I compared him to Witten.

 

[tone1oc]

I think we are overprojecting because he's a rookie, it's fantastic that he's been able to make an impact so quickly and in his case historically quick. With that said, I don't think we can just necessarily project that he's at say 75% (or any other arbitrary percent) of what he will be.

I, and I believe a lot of others did this very same thing with Trent Richardson this past year. Part of my evaluation and projection of him being Elite this year was the notion that he would inherently be way better after his rookie season. That is not to say that players don't get better from year to year (irrespective of rookie, year one, two, etc) they just don't get elite in my opinion.

 

[JFS171]

Count me among those that just don't get the "he does nothing that's elite" refrain. Watch the games. Don't get me wrong, there's obviously a place in the game for the metrics - height, weight, agility, speed, etc. But at some point, you've got to just watch the kid play. Some height/weight/speed freaks can't play a lick of football.

Point being, the whole with Reed is clearly greater than the sum of the individual parts. His route running and agility create separation, even if he's not the elite-level athlete that Jimmy Graham is (who is?). His catch radius appears to be pretty huge to me when I watch him play, and his body control is excellent for his size. I just don't see a lot of linebacker-sized guys moving through trash like running backs in the open field.

Maybe I need to watch Witten again, because Reed seems to be a few nothces above in fluidity, athleticism, etc. He's not 6'6", but who cares?

I'm looking more at utilization, hands and work ethic when I compared him to Witten.

My response RE: Witten was directed at this (which I personally don't belive is terribly accurate):

He's every bit the athlete that Witten is, for the record. Much more fluid, much quicker, better football speed, not as big or strong.

Witten is a freak at 6'6 bro. He's no Witten.

 

[FUBAR]

I think we are overprojecting because he's a rookie, it's fantastic that he's been able to make an impact so quickly and in his case historically quick. With that said, I don't think we can just necessarily project that he's at say 75% (or any other arbitrary percent) of what he will be.

I, and I believe a lot of others did this very same thing with Trent Richardson this past year. Part of my evaluation and projection of him being Elite this year was the notion that he would inherently be way better after his rookie season. That is not to say that players don't get better from year to year (irrespective of rookie, year one, two, etc) they just don't get elite in my opinion.

You're right. But reed has shown potential and a strong work ethic. Not sure what more you'd want.

 

[tone1oc]

I think we are overprojecting because he's a rookie, it's fantastic that he's been able to make an impact so quickly and in his case historically quick. With that said, I don't think we can just necessarily project that he's at say 75% (or any other arbitrary percent) of what he will be.

I, and I believe a lot of others did this very same thing with Trent Richardson this past year. Part of my evaluation and projection of him being Elite this year was the notion that he would inherently be way better after his rookie season. That is not to say that players don't get better from year to year (irrespective of rookie, year one, two, etc) they just don't get elite in my opinion.

You're right. But reed has shown potential and a strong work ethic. Not sure what more you'd want.

DOUBLE DIGIT TOUCHDOWNS!!

 

[fbelange]

Tiny sample size being compared to careers. How does he stack up against all-time best TE seasons?

Your first comment misses the point IMO, Gronk, Graham, Gates, Gonzalez (notice a trend?) are TD machines. Reed is unlikely to be that, but that's okay with me in PPR leagues. That he's ahead of Witten tells me a lot.

Tony Gonzalez had 7 or fewer TDs in 12 of his 17 seasons. Tony Gonzalez averages 6.53 touchdowns per every 16 games for his career. Jordan Reed's current pace would produce 6 TDs per 16 games.

Edit: How does Reed stack up to the ALL TIME BEST TE seasons? Not great, but he's a rookie. It's hard to check PPR, since the DD and HDD both use standard scoring, but it looks to me like Reed's PPG average would rank in the all-time top 40 in PPR. Reed's current average would stand as the 6th best season of Tony Gonzalez's 17-year career.

45th according to my spread sheet, but my data only goes back to 1981. Note: I excluded all seasons with less than 8 games played, and includes everyone TE from 2013 that has also played at least 8 games (so excludes Gronk's current season). He fits in right after 1994 Shannon Sharpe, and right before 1984 Todd Christensen.

Number of seasons by player that have finished ahead of Reed's current pace (ppr from 1981-2013 min of 8 games)

Rob Gronkowski 2

Antonio Gates 7

Jimmy Graham 3

Todd Christensen 2

Kellen Winslow 3

Dallas Clark 1

Tony Gonzalez 7

Shannon Sharpe 3

Ben Coates 1

Mark Bavaro 1

Vernon Davis 2

Jason Witten 3

Aaron Hernandez 1

Owen Daniels 1

Ozzie Newsome 1

Dave Casper 1

Ernest Givins 1

Joe Senser 1

Julius Thomas 1

Jordan Cameron 1

Owen Daniels, Dave Casper, Ozzie Newsome and one of Kellen Winslow's seasons came on 8 or 9 games.

How is Jeremy Shockeys awesome year not on this list but Bavaro's is. For comparision:

Bavaro:

1000yds, only 4 TD's, 15yd/reception, but lost 3 fumbles.

Shockey:

900 yds, 7TD's, 14yd/reception and 0 fumbles. Not to mention the highlight reel. This is why I hate pure statistics. They never tell the whole story.

..yet somehow this puts Bavaro at #10, Shockey not on this list, and Reed somehow in this story 8 games into his young career

stats guys, please save your breath.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Wasn't Ernest Givins a WR? Skinny dude that played in Warren Moon's Run n Shoot?

I scraped all of my data from Pro-Football-Reference. They have him listed as a WR from 86-90. A TE from 90-94. And a WR again from 94-95.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GiviEr00.htm

That's weird. I wonder if it's a mistake.

 

[Spin]

Tiny sample size being compared to careers. How does he stack up against all-time best TE seasons?

Your first comment misses the point IMO, Gronk, Graham, Gates, Gonzalez (notice a trend?) are TD machines. Reed is unlikely to be that, but that's okay with me in PPR leagues. That he's ahead of Witten tells me a lot.

Tony Gonzalez had 7 or fewer TDs in 12 of his 17 seasons. Tony Gonzalez averages 6.53 touchdowns per every 16 games for his career. Jordan Reed's current pace would produce 6 TDs per 16 games.

Edit: How does Reed stack up to the ALL TIME BEST TE seasons? Not great, but he's a rookie. It's hard to check PPR, since the DD and HDD both use standard scoring, but it looks to me like Reed's PPG average would rank in the all-time top 40 in PPR. Reed's current average would stand as the 6th best season of Tony Gonzalez's 17-year career.

45th according to my spread sheet, but my data only goes back to 1981. Note: I excluded all seasons with less than 8 games played, and includes everyone TE from 2013 that has also played at least 8 games (so excludes Gronk's current season). He fits in right after 1994 Shannon Sharpe, and right before 1984 Todd Christensen.

Number of seasons by player that have finished ahead of Reed's current pace (ppr from 1981-2013 min of 8 games)

Rob Gronkowski 2

Antonio Gates 7

Jimmy Graham 3

Todd Christensen 2

Kellen Winslow 3

Dallas Clark 1

Tony Gonzalez 7

Shannon Sharpe 3

Ben Coates 1

Mark Bavaro 1

Vernon Davis 2

Jason Witten 3

Aaron Hernandez 1

Owen Daniels 1

Ozzie Newsome 1

Dave Casper 1

Ernest Givins 1

Joe Senser 1

Julius Thomas 1

Jordan Cameron 1

Owen Daniels, Dave Casper, Ozzie Newsome and one of Kellen Winslow's seasons came on 8 or 9 games.

How is Jeremy Shockeys awesome year not on this list but Bavaro's is. For comparision:

Bavaro:

1000yds, only 4 TD's, 15yd/reception, but lost 3 fumbles.

Shockey:

900 yds, 7TD's, 14yd/reception and 0 fumbles. Not to mention the highlight reel. This is why I hate pure statistics. They never tell the whole story.

..yet somehow this puts Bavaro at #10, Shockey not on this list, and Reed somehow in this story 8 games into his young career

stats guys, please save your breath.

Well, this was just in context to comparing his PPG to other great seasons. Shockey in 2005 = 65 rec, 891 yards, 7 tds in 15 games for 13.0733 ppg. Bovaro finished 19th in 1987, with 55 rec, 867 yards and 8 tds in 12 games for 15.808 ppg.

Bavaro's 66/1001/4 season only had 11.88 ppg and falls at 102 on this list. (min 8 games played, sorted by ppg)

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

How did he compare with Cam Cleeland's rookie season?

 

[FlapJacks]

Wasn't Ernest Givins a WR? Skinny dude that played in Warren Moon's Run n Shoot?

I scraped all of my data from Pro-Football-Reference. They have him listed as a WR from 86-90. A TE from 90-94. And a WR again from 94-95.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GiviEr00.htm

That's weird. I wonder if it's a mistake.

Houston didn't roster a TE during the run and shoot years.

Maybe he lined up where the TE would go??

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Ernest Givens was never a TE. This is a silly discussion.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Ernest Givens was never a TE. This is a silly discussion.

Maybe they meant Robin Givens.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Ernest Givens was never a TE. This is a silly discussion.

Maybe they meant Robin Givens.

Good point.

She may indeed have/had a tight end. She was slammin' in Boomerang.

 

[Adam Harstad]

They move him in motion all the time. Lining him up in the backfield on a regular basis. They also line him up out wide a lot. He's not a physical freak like Graham, Gronk, or even Witten. He has good/great hands, decent speed, and runs good routes. He's not really elite in any of those areas but he's above average to good in all of them which as a package makes him very good right now. He's a rookie so he could get better but there's also a chance, because of the high usage, that we are seeing something closer to his ceiling right now and not his floor.

All I'm saying is don't treat this like it's his floor because omg he's a rookie and he's on all these all time great lists and he's only going to get better. There's a chance he never has a better season then what he's having right now.

Sure, there's a chance. As I keep pointing out, though, if you took Jordan Reed's 2013 and plopped it down in the middle of any HoF TE's career, you know what people would call it? An "average season". If Jordan Reed's ceiling is the same as an average year from Tony Gonzalez or Jason Witten or Antonio Gates or Kellen Winslow Sr. or Shannon Sharpe, then that's still a pretty good ceiling.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think we are overprojecting because he's a rookie, it's fantastic that he's been able to make an impact so quickly and in his case historically quick. With that said, I don't think we can just necessarily project that he's at say 75% (or any other arbitrary percent) of what he will be.

I, and I believe a lot of others did this very same thing with Trent Richardson this past year. Part of my evaluation and projection of him being Elite this year was the notion that he would inherently be way better after his rookie season. That is not to say that players don't get better from year to year (irrespective of rookie, year one, two, etc) they just don't get elite in my opinion.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not projecting anything. I'm not saying that Reed is a Hall of Famer, the next Tony Gonzalez, or will be a perennial top-3 fantasy TE. I'm just saying, holy hell, let's slow down and appreciate the fact that we're seeing far and away the best rookie season by a TE since the original Hall of Famer, Iron Mike Ditka himself, back in 1961.

Does anyone remember how crazy Jeremy Shockey was back during his rookie season? Because Jordan Reed is averaging nearly two and a half more fantasy points per game right now. We haven't seen a rookie tight end score fantasy points like this since Yahoo mistakenly granted Marques Colston TE eligibility. And there's still a very decent chance that Reed will even wind up passing Colston's rookie year.

 

[treat88]

Of course the sample size limits the confidence one can have in Reeds projections. I understand the skepticism.

That said, I don't know what more he could be doing at this point to alleviate that either.

So far, for dynasty leaguers, he's been one of the most surprising and enjoyable players to come along for quite a while.

 

[Adam Harstad]

How did he compare with Cam Cleeland's rookie season?

Destroying it. Cleeland had 54 receptions and 684 yards in 16 games. Reed's 16-game pace projects out to 88 receptions and 1010 yards.

Of course, the elephant in the room here is era-adjustment. Cleeland's rookie year came during a major down period of TE production (basically, from the early 80s to the early aughts, TEs just weren't very involved in the passing game). Reed has the good fortune of joining the league during a new peak in TE production. Cleeland's rookie year was good enough for a #2 fantasy finish at TE. Reed's season so far has him ranked 7th. Still, in terms of raw numbers, you have to go back to 1961 to find a rookie TE who can come within spitting distance of Jordan Reed.

 

[hines]

How did he compare with Cam Cleeland's rookie season?

Destroying it. Cleeland had 54 receptions and 684 yards in 16 games. Reed's 16-game pace projects out to 88 receptions and 1010 yards.

Of course, the elephant in the room here is era-adjustment. Cleeland's rookie year came during a major down period of TE production (basically, from the early 80s to the early aughts, TEs just weren't very involved in the passing game). Reed has the good fortune of joining the league during a new peak in TE production. Cleeland's rookie year was good enough for a #2 fantasy finish at TE. Reed's season so far has him ranked 7th. Still, in terms of raw numbers, you have to go back to 1961 to find a rookie TE who can come within spitting distance of Jordan Reed.

weren't you the guy comparing Finley to tight ends out of the 1970s and 1980s back a couple years ago? you wound up being on the right side of that argument but I think there is essentially no value in comparing player stats in the current era to players out of it. the game has changed and looking at Cam Cleeland and the original Kellen Winslow provide nothing of value.

 

[tone1oc]

I think we are overprojecting because he's a rookie, it's fantastic that he's been able to make an impact so quickly and in his case historically quick. With that said, I don't think we can just necessarily project that he's at say 75% (or any other arbitrary percent) of what he will be.

I, and I believe a lot of others did this very same thing with Trent Richardson this past year. Part of my evaluation and projection of him being Elite this year was the notion that he would inherently be way better after his rookie season. That is not to say that players don't get better from year to year (irrespective of rookie, year one, two, etc) they just don't get elite in my opinion.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not projecting anything. I'm not saying that Reed is a Hall of Famer, the next Tony Gonzalez, or will be a perennial top-3 fantasy TE. I'm just saying, holy hell, let's slow down and appreciate the fact that we're seeing far and away the best rookie season by a TE since the original Hall of Famer, Iron Mike Ditka himself, back in 1961.

Does anyone remember how crazy Jeremy Shockey was back during his rookie season? Because Jordan Reed is averaging nearly two and a half more fantasy points per game right now. We haven't seen a rookie tight end score fantasy points like this since Yahoo mistakenly granted Marques Colston TE eligibility. And there's still a very decent chance that Reed will even wind up passing Colston's rookie year.

How can you say in one sentence that you are not projecting anything, then in the next say 'far and away the best rookie seaon ever', which is based on some historical data that doesn't have much context today. I'm sorry but one 120 yd game and a handful of 60-70 yard games and a few touchdowns are not anything I need to slow down and appreciate. At no time have I thought to myself what a dominating force Jordan Reed is. He's a good TE that is taking advantage of tremendous opportunity, which doesn't happen very often as a rookie.

Things that don't impress me:

1. Possession Receivers.

Things that do impress me:

1. Receivers who do things that very few can do and make great plays.