Sure but only one in past two years and sometimes these concussions are not always like they seem, like with Ladarius Green. Of course I'd like that number to lower but like I said earlier the team that just guaranteed him $22 million knows more about his injury risks than you or I would.
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Jordan Reed - TE - SF (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
Different guy running the show but I'll let you live in the past and carry on thinking you know his risks more than the Redskins or their medical staff.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Snyder is not involved in football operations any longer. Scot McCloughan (the GM) invited him to attend a pre-draft meeting a week before the NFL draft as a courtesy, and Snyder declined, he knows the team is in good hands and seems to have learned his lesson.
When they signed Josh Norman, he greeted him, disappeared all day while the football guys wooed him and signed him, and then reappeared to celebrate after it was all finished.
These are just two recent examples that I thought you might not know about, but things are actually being run very, very differently in Washington under McCloughan. He would never tolerate the interference of an owner who has given him total control of the roster.
Feel however you want about Reed and his injuries, of course. But it will be harder to take your opinions seriously if you insist on showing that you aren't capable of assimilating new information about the team he's on, and insist on sticking to worn out narratives that even the major media networks have realized are dead, finally.
Shutout
Footballguy
He sure did his part in helping teams win ff titles last year.
I was giggling like a little kid in my final playoff game when he shredded the Eagles.
I have to admit when I read the above posts and people were comparing him to Gronk I was like "whoah! Let's not getEzekial Elliot carried away here" but then when you look at it, he and Gronk were separated by about 10 points in ppr last year and Reed came up big when it mattered the most, averaging about 29 a game in weeks 14, 15, 16. It doesn't get much better than..wait, no..It just doesn't get better than that.
I was giggling like a little kid in my final playoff game when he shredded the Eagles.
I have to admit when I read the above posts and people were comparing him to Gronk I was like "whoah! Let's not get
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah he sure did. However he's got a soft melon and that is always going to keep his value down. He's one hit away from being Jahvid Best.
Well he's had just the one in last two years so that's progress.
I referenced Ladarius Green earlier, I want to say he's officially been tabbed for 4 concussions. Per him it was found out to be a sinus issue and has been resolved, we'll see.
Popular saying with concussions is they are like snowflakes, no two the same. Also, and someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I've read that number of concussions a person has has not been determined to increase severity.
A lot we don't know about concussions and I'm a long way from saying it's not concern for Reed because I think it is but as I've been saying I don't think the Redskins do this deal without consulting their medical staff which was one of the biggest positives I took from the signing. To each their own but I'm just not going to sit in my living room and think I know more about Reeds risk than the Redskins and their medical staff.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
I think part of what the Jordan Reed apologists need to do, is ask yourselves this question.....
"Do I believe in Kirk Cousins?"
Sure, the talent is there with Reed. We have all stood up and taken notice, especially the latter half of last season.Is he "that guy"? I for one am not so sure. But the talent is there. Have a look back at his numbers the prior season, I firmly believe he is somewhere in the middle of the two seasons personally. (2014-2015)
Is the Kirk Cousins we saw towards the end of last year, what we can expect going forward? This is where I disagree.
I don't see him as quite as good as he was. Part of it seemed to be a little fluky. YOU LIKE THAT???
Then we get to the injury factor for Reed. The truth is, it doesn't matter what you believe. It also doesn't matter what the Redskins believe as an organization. It IS an issue....period,end of story. This isn't something that just came to light late last year, it goes back into 2014, and also into 2013, even though I don't feel like researching it at the moment.
Reed's current ADP is roughly at the end of round 3/early round 4 correct? I don't see getting him there.... I just don't. But then again, I am not one to "reach" for any tight end, Gronk included.
Non faith in Kirk Cousins + the injury possibilities Reed has + Reed is likely not quite as fluky good as he was late last season = Not worth the risk in my opinion.
Reed may very well blow up on people's teams this year, and if so then more power to them. But Reed won't be blowing up on any of MY TEAMS this coming season.
I would personally much, MUCH rather get a Ladarius Green in the 11th round, on a Martavis Bryant-less Steelers offense. (and possibly some time without LeVeon Bell also)
Kelce and several others that you can pick up well into the middle to later rounds are much more appealing to me.
TZM
"Do I believe in Kirk Cousins?"
Sure, the talent is there with Reed. We have all stood up and taken notice, especially the latter half of last season.Is he "that guy"? I for one am not so sure. But the talent is there. Have a look back at his numbers the prior season, I firmly believe he is somewhere in the middle of the two seasons personally. (2014-2015)
Is the Kirk Cousins we saw towards the end of last year, what we can expect going forward? This is where I disagree.
I don't see him as quite as good as he was. Part of it seemed to be a little fluky. YOU LIKE THAT???
Then we get to the injury factor for Reed. The truth is, it doesn't matter what you believe. It also doesn't matter what the Redskins believe as an organization. It IS an issue....period,end of story. This isn't something that just came to light late last year, it goes back into 2014, and also into 2013, even though I don't feel like researching it at the moment.
Reed's current ADP is roughly at the end of round 3/early round 4 correct? I don't see getting him there.... I just don't. But then again, I am not one to "reach" for any tight end, Gronk included.
Non faith in Kirk Cousins + the injury possibilities Reed has + Reed is likely not quite as fluky good as he was late last season = Not worth the risk in my opinion.
Reed may very well blow up on people's teams this year, and if so then more power to them. But Reed won't be blowing up on any of MY TEAMS this coming season.
I would personally much, MUCH rather get a Ladarius Green in the 11th round, on a Martavis Bryant-less Steelers offense. (and possibly some time without LeVeon Bell also)
Kelce and several others that you can pick up well into the middle to later rounds are much more appealing to me.
TZM
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
"Apologists"? Is that what we're calling people who like a good player now? I thought that term was reserved for people making excuses for bad players.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
Apologist = a person who offers an argument in defense of something controversial.
Note, I am not singling you out Conn. I actually read many of your posts. I was just merely stating why I won't be touching Reed this year.
I think he is a good player, (maybe even a VERY good player) but one that carries some risk.......too much for me, and not all of it is injury related. (as I explained some of that is on Cousins) The defense has improved a bit too right? That means they won't be in quite as many shootouts this year, or one would think. I liken this scenario to Jacksonville this coming year. I was all over Allen Robinson last year, and it helped me a bunch, but this year I will temper my expectations a bit.
If I could get Reed in say the 8th or 9th rounds, I might be more inclined to take him somewhere....but we all know thats not going to happen.
Kelce is going in the 7th in the mocks I have been doing, and I would much rather have him at this point.
TZM
TE is very deep this year and I have been surprised how high Reed is going in way-too-early mocks. It's not he's bad value, but in, say, a 12-team Yahoo! league where most are configured for 3 WR slots, you must draft Reed around pick 45 at the expense of, say, TY Hilton. While Reed may outproduce Hilton, their "value over replacement" is not close, since at the end of the draft my choices at WR are, say Brian Hartline versus Dwayne Allen and Benjamin Watson who are going undrafted.
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Without digging into the analysis, i have a very hard time believing this. Reed was an absolute monster in the 2nd half of last year. He won't be able to keep up that pace but his upside is still very high.
You think: Reed - Dwayne Allen > TY Hilton - Brian Hartline? I'm not knocking Reed, just pointing out how deep TE is vs WR esp in 3 WR leagues.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The value over replacement would be the value of Reed or Hilton over the scoring level of the free agents, which depends on the number of teams and each teams roster spots and starting requirements.
So 12 teams of 14 roster spots would be 168 total players rostered and the replacement value would be the points being scored by players 169 to 180 or so.
I don't think this is what you meant to say?
Anyhow Reed scored 248 points in PPR last year. TE 12 (worst starter in start 1 TE) was Antonio Gates with 149 points. So Reed provided 99 VBD in leagues requiring you to start 1 TE.
Hilton scored 211 points in PPR last year and WR 36 (worst starter for start 3 WR) scored 174 points. So Hilton provided 37 VBD.
If you want to compare the replacement level you are likely talking about TE 25 or so compared to WR 80 or something and the gap will be even larger because WR keep scoring pretty well even down in that range.
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TZMarkie
Footballguy
Tool said:
This is the part I think many are forgetting.
Its almost as if they are drafting him and essentially thinking its a "given" he will perform at last years elite end-of-year level.
As I said earlier, I think Reed is probably in between the last 2 years production in a sense. (maybe a slight bit better than 2014, but worse than 2015)
Let me run a quick scenario by everyone.....
Would anyone be truly "shocked" if Kirk Cousins came out this year and looked pretty dreadful? Think about this. He certainly has looked bad at times.
There were games where he seemed like he could chuck INTs at any time. He threw 8 INTs in the first six games right? If I am reading stats off ESPN correctly.
I'm not saying he will bust, but that strong pace near the end of the season just won't last in my opinion.
As Tool said, I do think the upside is high with Reed, and he obviously has talent. But I would rather use that early-ish pick to snag my 3rd WR. I'm pretty confident I can select 3 early WRs that can outperform the average trio of WRs on the other teams in my fantasy leagues, and I can settle for solid TE production later on in the draft.
(say I can acquire Kelce in the 7th, and get another stud WR earlier instead of Reed, I'm all over that)
Oh wait, can we admit getting stud WRs generally have less injury risk than Reed is going to carry with him....? (as always anyone can get hurt, just saying WR's tend to have fewer injuries than high end RBs, known injury risks elsewhere , and an obvious risk in Jordan Reed)
Its starting to stray off topic a bit, but thats just another reason to go WR-WR early in drafts as I tend to do.
TZM
unckeyherb
Footballguy
I think that the scenario is the exact opposite of what you are saying. Its the same reason that a few years ago, Jimmy Graham was the most valuable player in FF. He so drastically outscores your opponent's TE on a weekly basis that combining him with a WW WR still gives you a net positive against any team that doesn't own Gronk and maybe Olsen.
I like Reed because he averaged just over 8 targets a game last year and just signed a new contract. That puts him in the Gronk, Olsen, Walker, Barnidge usage last year. I can see Walker's and Barnidge's targets going down a bit, but also see Fleener getting 115+.
Reed catches over 75% of his passes in his career. He is in the same offense with a QB who may (or may not) be better.
There are health concerns, so some owners will be scared off by this. But he is Top 5 TEs right now. I personally don't think the Green, Ertz or Ebron's of the world will get enough targets to be more than average 11-12 ppg
Reed catches over 75% of his passes in his career. He is in the same offense with a QB who may (or may not) be better.
There are health concerns, so some owners will be scared off by this. But he is Top 5 TEs right now. I personally don't think the Green, Ertz or Ebron's of the world will get enough targets to be more than average 11-12 ppg
lardonastick
Footballguy
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JackReacher
Footballguy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
He said: "LAST YEAR WAS HIS FIRST YEAR WITH A COMPETENT QB".
Which happens to be 100% true.
Which happens to be 100% true.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Seriously, where's all the confusion coming from? He wasn't around yet for Griffin's one good year. Since then it's been overall bad QB play.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Is it even possible to be over concussions?
If Reed were to suffer another concussion, the concern over the severity and length of recovery would be greatly amplified vs a player with no history of concussions. There would probably even be talk of how many more he could sustain before calling it a career.
For or me that risk will never go away with Reed
Sebowski
Footballguy
Of course it is. It is all about prayer. Just ask Reed. God dictates concussions. He says it is up to god, so he's probably fine.
Shutout
Footballguy
I agree to be concerned with it but at the same time, to a degree, all players are probably just as highly at risk of one thing or another. With concussions, for me, it's always about frequency of repetition. Distance of time between them always makes me feel much better so even a guy like DJAX who had that NASTY one that lingered forever, I don't worry about it as much now (of course, he may be paying the ultimate price down the road...just speaking in terms of playing ff and owning playerS).
massraider
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
It IS concerning. Definitely worth being more concerned about than a guy that had one here or there. And you're right, he's always got something wrong with him. I guess it comes down to how much risk a drafter can tolerate. I'd say people who owned him last year are much more tolerant and willing because he was an absolute difference maker last year and seemed to put his best numbers up right when it mattered most. I had him in one league and he helped win the league so I admit I'm still living off the "good" of it all.
I'd draft him again but as I say a lot on the boards I am one of those people that don't tend to get caught up on past injuries because my personal feeling is that any player can get hurt at any time.
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
For me it comes down to what you think about Cousins as much as anything. I think Cousins had a fluky second half and is more the guy that he was the rest of his career. That lowers the ceiling of the offense to me. Couple that with however you want to quantify the injury risk and Reed's ADP of TE2-which leaves almost no margin for error-and I'll be avoiding.
Full disclosure: I owned Reed in 2013 and 2014 but not last year, so I may just have bitter beer face
Full disclosure: I owned Reed in 2013 and 2014 but not last year, so I may just have bitter beer face
MattFancy
Footballguy
As a Skins fan, it's hard to get a read (no pun intended) on the offense going into this season.For me it comes down to what you think about Cousins as much as anything. I think Cousins had a fluky second half and is more the guy that he was the rest of his career. That lowers the ceiling of the offense to me. Couple that with however you want to quantify the injury risk and Reed's ADP of TE2-which leaves almost no margin for error-and I'll be avoiding.
Full disclosure: I owned Reed in 2013 and 2014 but not last year, so I may just have bitter beer face
All the pieces are there for a big offensive season from them. The key guys are returning: Cousins, Reed, Jackson, Garcon, and Crowder. Add in Docston to the mix and the potential for the running game to have some struggles, and you have the recipe for a solid passing attack that can put up some numbers. The obvious question mark is going to be Cousins. Which Cousins do we see? The one we saw for 3 1/2 seasons or the one we saw for the 2nd half of last season? If he can just even get close to what he did down the stretch last year, the offense will be really, really good. If Cousins reverts back to his former self, then it could be ugly.
The problem with Reed has never been talent. His health has really been the only thing that has slowed him down during his career so far. Can he stay healthy? I honestly don't know. Obviously, he can put up a big season if he misses a couple of games. I do agree that TE2 seems to be a bit more than I would pay for him at the moment. He certainly has the potential to finish there, but if you could somehow snag him after Gronk, Olsen, and Kelce come off the board, somewhere in the 5th or later, then I think you are getting better value.
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I haven't experimented too much with taking Reed in the 4th or Olsen in the 5th, but waiting on TEs I am typically getting a Landry/Maclin/Tate WR3 in the 4th and landing a Ertz/Barnidge/Thomas in the 8th. I'll take that over Reed-Crabtree / Olsen-Sanders.
YMMV
