Justin Blackmon Suspended Indefinitely (13 Viewers)

[BeTheMatch]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

Isn't that what people said about Brandon Marshall not that long ago?

 

[PatsWillWin]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

Isn't that what people said about Brandon Marshall not that long ago?

Even if it was, so what? Entirely different player with entirely different problems. He isn't saying it's 100% impossible, but it seems extremely unlikely. That is based on Blackmon's behavior to this point and has nothing to do with Brandon Marshall.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

Isn't that what people said about Brandon Marshall not that long ago?

Marshall has missed a total of 5 games in his 8 year career, and no more than two in any season (2010). I don't see how he compares with someone who has been suspended repeatedly and is currently out of football because of a substance problem he can't seem to handle.

 

[Milkman]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

Unfortunately as a Blackmon owner I agree with this.

 

[scothawk]

Just dropped in my PPR WR happy scoring dynasty league.

I have 1.07. Hmmm.

Doubt he makes it to 2.07.

Decision time.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

Is all this backsliding increasing the chances Jax will pick Watkins?

 

[Spike]

Yesterday I dealt Blackmon for the 2.02 and a mid to low 1st in 2015.

Seems like fair value considering the risk reward factor involved.

Looks like you did VERY well here.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm not totally up to date on all the specifics.....but does anybody know when a decision on his status will be made....I would think the NFL would have liked to have given JAC some idea where this stands prior to the draft.....when is Blackmon able to ask to be reinstated....

I haven't seen anything official, but I believe he can ask now - but they can say you have to sit the rest of the year and then come back in 2015 or whatever. I think best case for the Jags is that he'll be suspended for the first 8 games of this year (to make the entire suspension a full 16 games).

thats kind of what I was thinking.....make it a full 16 games and then let him back in......guys have been suspended much less for doing much more then hittin the bottle...

why is it hard to go ahead and make that call at this point....?....so the Jags would know....I haven't heard anything so I am assuming Blackmon is doing what he is supposed to.....you would think at some point they would have to tell him what the "timeline" is if he does everything he is supposed to be doing...

I imagine that they want him passing tests for as long as possible so they can make a better case for reinstatement.

Plus we don't even know if he's been passing tests to this point since his indefinite suspension. Things are supposed to remain secret, and leaks of info (while they happen frequently) are a breach of confidentiality that is supposed to exist in the program. For all we know he may have failed again, or a number of times, since the indefinite suspension and he could be far, far from reinstatement. We just have no way of knowing. This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL. And before anyone says I'm overreacting, exactly what has the evidence supported so far? A guy who can manage his life or one who cannot?

Excellent point, and one that a ton of people seem to be missing. We have zero clue if he's passed or failed the 10x / month random tests he's been getting, and we won't know anything until / if he's reinstated. The people saying he's 100% certain to play again are fooling themselves here. No, the NFL isn't going to give him a lifetime ban, but the chances of a likely alcoholic passing 120ish drug / alcohol screens in a row isn't anywhere remotely close to 100%.

 

[Touchdown There]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again.

I think fantasy owners overrate Blackmon to begin with. I am not sure he was an impact player in the past. That is why Blackmon owners are really taking a chance holding him. Wasting a roster spot during suspension plus gambling he will ever be fantasy worthy on a team like Jax.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

Isn't that what people said about Brandon Marshall not that long ago?

Substance abuse =/= criminal behavior in the league's eyes under the current CBA. It's logically absurd, but any player in stage two or three having a drink is going to carry a much stiffer penalty than wife beating, bar fights, or illegal gun possession.

 

[Johnny Bing]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again.

I think fantasy owners overrate Blackmon to begin with. I am not sure he was an impact player in the past. That is why Blackmon owners are really taking a chance holding him. Wasting a roster spot during suspension plus gambling he will ever be fantasy worthy on a team like Jax.

Not an impact player in the past? Not much of an impact because of how few games he played, but when he is on the field he absolutely can be an impact player. The guy averaged over 7 rec and over 100 yards in 4 games last year. What more do you want from a WR to consider him an impact. Not to mention looks who is throwing him the ball? If he was on any team with a half way decent QB, he could put up some really impressive numbers.

I'd much rather hold a roster spot for the upside with him than hold out for some other WR that has met his ceiling and is never going to be anything more than one or two good games a year.

 

[Touchdown There]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again.

I think fantasy owners overrate Blackmon to begin with. I am not sure he was an impact player in the past. That is why Blackmon owners are really taking a chance holding him. Wasting a roster spot during suspension plus gambling he will ever be fantasy worthy on a team like Jax.

The guy averaged over 7 rec and over 100 yards in 4 games last year.

You are cherry picking stats. Happens every time a member really likes a guy. Look at all the games he played. He has had a few good games, that is all.

 

[Johnny Bing]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again.

I think fantasy owners overrate Blackmon to begin with. I am not sure he was an impact player in the past. That is why Blackmon owners are really taking a chance holding him. Wasting a roster spot during suspension plus gambling he will ever be fantasy worthy on a team like Jax.

The guy averaged over 7 rec and over 100 yards in 4 games last year.

You are cherry picking stats. Happens every time a member really likes a guy. Look at all the games he played. He has had a few good games, that is all.

Its not cherry picking when that is his entire season last year. Yes his rookie year he struggled early, but how many WR's make such an impact right out of the gate? Not too many second year WR's put up those kind of numbers and drop off the map. And if you even look at his 2012 finish to the season he was very consistent with 6 - 7 receptions a game.

Yes they are passing more because they are behind, but I also counter that with their QB/team is horrible.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again.

I think fantasy owners overrate Blackmon to begin with. I am not sure he was an impact player in the past. That is why Blackmon owners are really taking a chance holding him. Wasting a roster spot during suspension plus gambling he will ever be fantasy worthy on a team like Jax.

The guy averaged over 7 rec and over 100 yards in 4 games last year.

You are cherry picking stats. Happens every time a member really likes a guy. Look at all the games he played. He has had a few good games, that is all.

Its not cherry picking when that is his entire season last year. Yes his rookie year he struggled early, but how many WR's make such an impact right out of the gate? Not too many second year WR's put up those kind of numbers and drop off the map. And if you even look at his 2012 finish to the season he was very consistent with 6 - 7 receptions a game.

Yes they are passing more because they are behind, but I also counter that with their QB/team is horrible.

Agreed. The entire body of work is very impressive for a 1st / 2nd year player with terrible QB play. Given that, and his pedigree, questioning his talent or ability to be an NFL WR1 seems pretty misguided from where I'm sitting.

 

[Touchdown There]

In 2012, Blackmon had one really good game which came from 14 targets in an overtime game against Houston. The rest of the year he did not have a game over 100 yards although he was targeted > 10 times a game in nearly all the games for the last half of the year. 800 some yards on the season, not great at all.

In 2013, Blackmon started with a couple good games:

Week 1 vs STL - 5 receptions for 136 yards and a TD

Week 2 vs DEN - 14 receptions for 190 yards on 20 targets

Weeks 3 and 4 were pretty junky with around 10 targets a game. I do not think this guy is special from what he has shown so far.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Live at club headquarters, ESPN's Britt McHenry reported Wednesday that the Jaguars are "not expecting Justin Blackmon at all for 2014."
The words reportedly came directly from GM Dave Caldwell's mouth, though we do wonder if the Jaguars painted such a bleak picture to McHenry in an attempt to create the impression they'll take Clemson WR Sammy Watkins at No. 3 overall. Regardless, it's clear the Jags aren't counting on having Blackmon, and would consider his 2014 return a "bonus." As is, their starting wideouts are Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders, with Mike Brown as their No. 3 receiver.

 

[Touchdown There]

In short, Blackmon has 3 games over 100 yards. In order to achieve that it took 14 targets and 20 targets in two of those games. Nearly any receiver in the league should go over 100 with those target numbers. Those that think he is special are not looking at his production, but already believed he was special when drafting him. Also, I am not a huge fan of 6' 1" receivers. Lack of height on a bad team with an alcohol problem. Wasted roster spot in dynasty.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

In short, Blackmon has 3 games over 100 yards. In order to achieve that it took 14 targets and 20 targets in two of those games. Nearly any receiver in the league should go over 100 with those target numbers. Those that think he is special are not looking at his production, but already believed he was special when drafting him. Also, I am not a huge fan of 6' 1" receivers. Lack of height on a bad team with an alcohol problem. Wasted roster spot in dynasty.

Compare Blackmon's first 18 NFL games played to those of AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, or anyone else you care to mention, then get back to us on his talent level. Immediately out of the gate having only 18 games played, as a rookie / 2nd year guy, with atrocious QB play, he's produced at a 75 catch 1024 yard 16 game pace overall. That's outstanding. He's a huge risk, sure. I agree that he's currently overvalued due to people wildly underestimating said risk. But he can play.

 

[Touchdown There]

In short, Blackmon has 3 games over 100 yards. In order to achieve that it took 14 targets and 20 targets in two of those games. Nearly any receiver in the league should go over 100 with those target numbers. Those that think he is special are not looking at his production, but already believed he was special when drafting him. Also, I am not a huge fan of 6' 1" receivers. Lack of height on a bad team with an alcohol problem. Wasted roster spot in dynasty.

Compare Blackmon's first 18 NFL games played to those of AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, or anyone else you care to mention, then get back to us on his talent level. Immediately out of the gate having only 18 games played, as a rookie / 2nd year guy, with atrocious QB play, he's produced at a 75 catch 1024 yard 16 game pace overall. That's outstanding. He's a huge risk, sure. I agree that he's currently overvalued due to people wildly underestimating said risk. But he can play.

Which one of those wide receiver's you mentioned are 6' 1" with an alcohol problem and playing for a team that is consistently one of the worst in the league? Blackmon should not even be mentioned in the same sentence as the guys you listed.

 

[Johnny Bing]

Wasted roster spot in dynasty.

I would like to see that roster who else they are carrying instead of making a spot for Blackmon. To say he is wasted roster spot in a dynasty is just crazy talk.

 

[Touchdown There]

Wasted roster spot in dynasty.

I would like to see that roster who else they are carrying instead of making a spot for Blackmon. To say he is wasted roster spot in a dynasty is just crazy talk.

Everyone gets to have their opinion. It is not crazy to bet this guy is never fantasy worthy. I think it is more likely than not and that Blackmon supporters need to re-evaluate.

 

[matttyl]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again.

I think fantasy owners overrate Blackmon to begin with. I am not sure he was an impact player in the past. That is why Blackmon owners are really taking a chance holding him. Wasting a roster spot during suspension plus gambling he will ever be fantasy worthy on a team like Jax.

The guy averaged over 7 rec and over 100 yards in 4 games last year.

You are cherry picking stats. Happens every time a member really likes a guy. Look at all the games he played. He has had a few good games, that is all.

Cecil Shorts did almost the same thing on the same team in the 4 weeks from game 2 to 5. Is he a stud as well?

 

[Johnny Bing]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again.

I think fantasy owners overrate Blackmon to begin with. I am not sure he was an impact player in the past. That is why Blackmon owners are really taking a chance holding him. Wasting a roster spot during suspension plus gambling he will ever be fantasy worthy on a team like Jax.

The guy averaged over 7 rec and over 100 yards in 4 games last year.

You are cherry picking stats. Happens every time a member really likes a guy. Look at all the games he played. He has had a few good games, that is all.

Cecil Shorts did almost the same thing on the same team in the 4 weeks from game 2 to 5. Is he a stud as well?

When did this turn into a "stud" discussion? I said he can be an impact player, just like Shorts and many others in the league. I'm not saying he is going into the hall of fame, but TT is saying he wouldn't even hold a roster spot for him. His potential is too much to ignore or to think that he can not be an impact player over the entire season if he would put down the bottle.

 

[msommer]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

Isn't that what people said about Brandon Marshall not that long ago?

Substance abuse =/= criminal behavior in the league's eyes under the current CBA. It's logically absurd, but any player in stage two or three having a drink is going to carry a much stiffer penalty than wife beating, bar fights, or illegal gun possession.

Also can't recall that Brandon Marshall was in fact suspended indefinitely at any time during his career (i.e.he's at least one strike behind Blackmon...)

 

[BeTheMatch]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

Isn't that what people said about Brandon Marshall not that long ago?

Substance abuse =/= criminal behavior in the league's eyes under the current CBA. It's logically absurd, but any player in stage two or three having a drink is going to carry a much stiffer penalty than wife beating, bar fights, or illegal gun possession.

Also can't recall that Brandon Marshall was in fact suspended indefinitely at any time during his career (i.e.he's at least one strike behind Blackmon...)

No, but there were tons of people on this message board saying he was a wasted roster spot, would never be anything again because you couldn't count on him, etc., and trading him away for peanuts because he'd never be worth it. And all that was true. Until it wasn't.

 

[Warpig]

I just traded for him and some other players in a multiplayer trade. Now that I have him, he's pretty much safe to drop. Just the way it works with me.

 

[werdnoynek]

I just traded for him and some other players in a multiplayer trade. Now that I have him, he's pretty much safe to drop. Just the way it works with me.

Unless you have < 20 player rosters, this doesn't make any sense.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

I just traded for him and some other players in a multiplayer trade. Now that I have him, he's pretty much safe to drop. Just the way it works with me.

Looks like many and maybe most people (not me) believe he's worth a 2nd round pick, and upthread Ron Mexico robbed some guy for a 1st and a 2nd just the other day. Don't cut him, shop him. He certainly has trade value. Not every guy in your league reads Rotoblurbs this time of year.

 

[Kevrunner]

I made a trade offer for Blackmon yesterday and it was turned down in less than an hour. PPR/Non-IDP league, I offered the 15th pick and 22nd pick in our rookie draft.

 

[Louche]

But seriously...are fantasy owners making decisions on Blackmon based on information that Jax leaks THE DAY BEFORE THE DRAFT...? Obviously this is put out there to threaten teams that are targeting Watkins and increase the value of their pick. I have no idea what will happen to Blackmon but I am definitely not making any sort of moves based on information that is put out there in these days.

 

[JohnnyU]

I made a trade offer for Blackmon yesterday and it was turned down in less than an hour. PPR/Non-IDP league, I offered the 15th pick and 22nd pick in our rookie draft.

He probably should have taken that offer.

 

[Milkman]

I would have taken the 15th pick straight up.

 

[bweiser]

pretty sure cris carter overcame a drug and alcohol problem early in his career

 

[metoo]

I made a trade offer for Blackmon yesterday and it was turned down in less than an hour. PPR/Non-IDP league, I offered the 15th pick and 22nd pick in our rookie draft.

Lucky for you it was turned down.

 

[Milkman]

pretty sure cris carter overcame a drug and alcohol problem early in his career

Yeah and people have walked on the moon too. Doesn't make it likely. When we are valuing Justin Blackmon nobody is saying he 100% won't stay clean, We are gauging the probability of him staying clean and it's well below 50%.

 

[BeTheMatch]

pretty sure cris carter overcame a drug and alcohol problem early in his career

Yeah and people have walked on the moon too. Doesn't make it likely. When we are valuing Justin Blackmon nobody is saying he 100% won't stay clean, We are gauging the probability of him staying clean and it's well below 50%.

Well, if you say so.

 

[KellysHeroes]

This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.

Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

good posting, was only about this time last yr u rated him top 10 or so... what a waste, so sad

 

[KellysHeroes]

I made a trade offer for Blackmon yesterday and it was turned down in less than an hour. PPR/Non-IDP league, I offered the 15th pick and 22nd pick in our rookie draft.

be thankful, sometimes the best trades are the ones not made

 

[KellysHeroes]

pretty sure cris carter overcame a drug and alcohol problem early in his career

Yeah and people have walked on the moon too. Doesn't make it likely. When we are valuing Justin Blackmon nobody is saying he 100% won't stay clean, We are gauging the probability of him staying clean and it's well below 50%.

The point was made earlier, Carter came from a different era of football... there was a lot less risk for teams to give a player of his talent level multiple chances; and the NFL didn't have a substance abuse policy back then like it does now.

As I said months ago, I think a Ricky Williams like comeback is the ceiling here... still be fantasy relevant but never be a stud again.

 

[Cato]

In short, Blackmon has 3 games over 100 yards. In order to achieve that it took 14 targets and 20 targets in two of those games. Nearly any receiver in the league should go over 100 with those target numbers. Those that think he is special are not looking at his production, but already believed he was special when drafting him. Also, I am not a huge fan of 6' 1" receivers. Lack of height on a bad team with an alcohol problem. Wasted roster spot in dynasty.

The fact there are some believers in this thread indicates he is not in fact a wasted roster spot, but probably someone you would sell in a package to consolidate assets and acquire another player with more stability, etc. So not a wasted roster spot. (Depending on roster size and league contract structure of course.)

There's probably a mid point between the extreme of STUD and USELESS, sellable asset to the believers seems like a good fit.

 

[EBF]

Talent is talent. Across my many leagues, I'm holding a number of guys like Michael Dyer, Justin Blackmon, Mike Williams, and Santonio Holmes who have done some big time knucklehead things in the past. I would gladly trade any one of them for a player of equivalent talent level who has a clean track record, but that's just the thing. You're not going to get a player like that in return. You're going to get a less talented player without any of the extra "stuff."

An inferior player with choir boy character is worthless if he isn't good enough to produce. I want players who can actually score at a rare level. The population of players with the talent to do that is extremely small and I want to get as many of those guys on my FF rosters as possible. If that means holding onto a cancer like Holmes or Blackmon then so be it. I'd rather have them than 4th round rookie who is never going to start an NFL game in his career.

I haven't checked the prices on Blackmon for a while, but I shopped him for picks 1.05-1.07 before this latest hysteria hit and was rejected everywhere. The best offer I got for him was the 1.09 in a devy league where Lee/Seastrunk/Watkins/ASJ were already rostered. At that price, it's barely worth the trouble. This class is deep with solid prospects, but there really aren't that many elite type guys in this group.

 

[kutta]

I made a trade offer for Blackmon yesterday and it was turned down in less than an hour. PPR/Non-IDP league, I offered the 15th pick and 22nd pick in our rookie draft.

You're both crazy.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

pretty sure cris carter overcame a drug and alcohol problem early in his career

Pretty sure he wasn't being tested 10x / month for the rest of his career back then either. Things are way stricter now.

 

[massraider]

Of course it's possible he overcomes it.

I have a tough time envisioning it happening. It's nothing to do with Blackmon. I don't know anything about his personality. I have a tough time envisioning a 24 year old with a drinking problem, all kinds of time on his hands, and a lot of money, sorting things out in a timely fashion.

Now he's going to have MORE free time on his hands, and he won't have access to any guidance from the team.

He has DUI's going back to 2010. Alcohol-related arrests/suspensions going back four years, he'll probably have a calender year with no team contact. It's very possible this is the wakeup call he needs. Well,maybe. Is it VERY possible? I dunno.

Been around pro athletes? Lots of clubs, lots of free booze flowing, lots of people buying them drinks. It's one thing if an athlete has a problem with coke, or even weed. You can avoid it. Not easily, but a lot easier than avoiding a product you have a problem with, and encounter in every restaurant you walk into.

Sucks, but if you are betting on whether the 24 year old with a drinking problem falls off the wagon again, smart money is on him relapsing.

 

[BassNBrew]

Stop bumping this thread. Every time I see it at the top I assume there's some actual news.

Opps…now I just did it.

Maybe I need to start a new thread with only Blackmon news.

 

[KellysHeroes]

bump

 

[Bracie Smathers]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000349088/article/justin-blackmons-jacksonville-jaguars-career-over?campaign=Twitter_atl

Justin Blackmon's Jacksonville Jaguars career over?
By Chris Wesseling

• Around the League Writer
• Published: May 9, 2014 at 10:12 p.m.

In second-round picks Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, the Jacksonville Jaguars lucked into a pair of wide receivers with first-round talent in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Is that a sign that the Jaguars are resigned to suspended receiver Justin Blackmon never suiting up for them again?

General manager David Caldwell and coach Gus Bradley hinted Friday night that it is indeed the case.

"We've moved on for this year," Caldwell said, adding that Blackmon can't be released until he's reinstated.

"I feel at times there's probably a little emptiness," Bradley said, via The Florida Times-Union. "There are some unknowns there and you don't know how it's working. You don't want to shut it off.

"I was hoping it would be better than where it is going. We haven't heard much and it doesn't sound like it's going in the right direction. Like Dave said, we can't count on him."

Actions speak louder than words in the NFL. The selections of Lee and Robinson are a sign that Blackmon is no longer in the organization's plans.

 

[Milkman]

Love that I got nothing for him either. What a complete waste of talent........

 

[False Start]

Wow.

Jaguars GM Dave Caldwell confirmed that the Jaguars will not have Justin Blackmon in 2014.

Source: Florida Times Union
May 9 - 11:28 PM

 

[JaxBill]

Jaguars GM: Justin Blackmon playing in '14 unlikely

By Marc Sessler

Around the League Writer

At February's combine, Jaguars general manager David Caldwell called the potential return of wide receiver Justin Blackmon "a luxury" for Jacksonville if it happened.

The odds don't sound promising.

"It's not something we're counting on," Caldwell told reporters Friday, per Ryan O'Halloran of The Florida Times-Union, adding that he'd be "relatively surprised" if Blackmon suited up in 2014 after being suspended indefinitely without pay for violating the NFL Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse.

Caldwell said in February that the Jaguars haven't been in regular contact with Blackmon, the fifth-overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, citing "certain rules that we have to abide by" from the NFL Players Association and the league office. The third-year wideout would need to be reinstated by the league first, something NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport on Friday called no guarantee, per sources informed of the situation.

It's a bitter pill to swallow for a promising young Jaguars team with Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders penciled in at the position alongside Mike Brown. Last season, Blackmon lit up the field with his post-catch playmaking ability and an outrageous 19 catches for 326 yards in his first two games back from suspension.

The Jaguars can release him without owing another cent, so there's no harm in keeping his rights heading into the season. From another angle, an especially daring club could, in theory, attempt to secure Blackmon in a trade. That would be surprising, but the current regime didn't cause this headache -- they inherited it.

The latest "Around The League Podcast" runs through the latest NFL draft headlines and takes a look at which coaches and GMs are lying about their intentions.

I'm not sure this is 100 percent true. Unless they changed the rule, I thought the team could not cut him while he was suspended.

Is it that hard for an nfl.com writer to know the league rules?

Caldwell confirmed my thought above

"I was hoping it would be better than where it's going but we'll see," Bradley said of Blackmon. "We haven't heard much and it doesn't sound like it's going in the right direction."

Not exactly the ringing endorsement you want to hear for a player trying to recover from multiple violations of the NFL's substance abuse policy. Facing an indefinite suspension, Caldwell told reporters that the Jaguars have given up hope on the 2012 first round pick returning to the field for the team in 2014.

So why not release Blackmon now and be done with the final stain on the organization left by former general manager Gene Smith?

"We can't," Caldwell said.

http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2014/5/9/5702026/justin-blackmon-jaguars-marqise-lee-allen-robinson