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Justin Blackmon Suspended Indefinitely (1 Viewer)

Rotoworld:

GM Dave Caldwell said suspended WR Justin Blackmon playing in 2014 is "not something we're counting on."

Caldwell added he would be "relatively surprised" if Blackmon played this season. Blackmon is in the midst of an indefinite suspension for multiple violations of the league's substance-abuse policy. Caldwell has already said that the team is treating Blackmon as a "luxury" but will welcome him back when the ban is over.

Source: Ryan O'Halloran on Twitter
interesting strategy, Jacksonville. See who blinks.
 
Yeah i was talking about a 2nd in this year's FF rookie draft. Not the actual draft. Should have been more clear.

 
I would say his value in FF dynasty right now is a second round pick. No one in their right mind would give a first when it looks like he won't even play this year at all and who knows beyond that.

 
I would say his value in FF dynasty right now is a second round pick. No one in their right mind would give a first when it looks like he won't even play this year at all and who knows beyond that.
Yeah, no one would pay more than a 2nd, but would his owners sell for that? I tried to acquire him in several of my leagues 2-3 weeks back and in one league his owner wanted either the 1.02 or Harvin, and in the other league the Blackmon owner demanded my 1.05, 1.13 and 2.05 or the 1.05 1.13 and Kaepernick (all of these offers I turned down).

This latest "news" is not something we didn't already know (that he might not play at all in 2014) and if my leagues are any barometer, I doubt his owners would part with him for a 2nd.

 
New owner doing a complete overhaul (clearing cap space) threw Blackmon & Kendall Wright at me for a 2015 3rd. Didn't even bother to counter and took it. He can sit on IR another year; at least Wright will put up some WR3 pts.

 
He entered rehab in November. I have no idea how it went or that he even got out...assuming it went well and he keeps his nose clean, I can't imagine the NFL not letting him play in 2015.

In the 80s, Michael Ray, Howe, Gooden, and LT seemed to be suspended a dozen times each for drug use. I know each of the leagues have changed their stance, become far more strict publicly, but I don't recall any league ever truly saying "you're done" and following through with it.

I think they want to see him be a good boy for a year.

If he's publicly a changed man, then the press will start to point out murderers and wife-beaters and other criminals that were allowed to play while he isn't.

A lot still has to play out though.

Since I think he's better than any WR in the 2015 draft, I'd trade a 3rd round 2015 pick. I wouldn't trade a 2014 pick unless I could have a long chat with him or maybe even send some player to hang with him for a weekend and report back. AFAIK this is not allowed.

 
I think the Holding has two risks: 1), if he has another mishap this year, he may never play again, and, 2) if he does come back in 2015, will he be the same after having been away from the team and organized play for so long? Is he disciplined enough to stay in shape while he is on his own?

 
I think that it is very smart for Caldwell to float this information just prior to the NFL Draft, as it sends a message that they are potentially prepared to take Watkins or Evans with their first round pick, so if you desire either player, then you will need to trade with Jacksonville to insure that you will secure that player which you covet.

 
I think that it is very smart for Caldwell to float this information just prior to the NFL Draft, as it sends a message that they are potentially prepared to take Watkins or Evans with their first round pick, so if you desire either player, then you will need to trade with Jacksonville to insure that you will secure that player which you covet.
Im sure the league isnt counting on jax having blackmon either

 
New owner doing a complete overhaul (clearing cap space) threw Blackmon & Kendall Wright at me for a 2015 3rd. Didn't even bother to counter and took it. He can sit on IR another year; at least Wright will put up some WR3 pts.
A good ff league would not allow a suspended player to go on ir. The "i" stands for injured. An owner should have to burn a normal roster spot if they want to hold.
 
I think the Holding has two risks: 1), if he has another mishap this year, he may never play again, and, 2) if he does come back in 2015, will he be the same after having been away from the team and organized play for so long? Is he disciplined enough to stay in shape while he is on his own?
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.
 
New owner doing a complete overhaul (clearing cap space) threw Blackmon & Kendall Wright at me for a 2015 3rd. Didn't even bother to counter and took it. He can sit on IR another year; at least Wright will put up some WR3 pts.
A good ff league would not allow a suspended player to go on ir. The "i" stands for injured. An owner should have to burn a normal roster spot if they want to hold.
New owner doing a complete overhaul (clearing cap space) threw Blackmon & Kendall Wright at me for a 2015 3rd. Didn't even bother to counter and took it. He can sit on IR another year; at least Wright will put up some WR3 pts.
A good ff league would not allow a suspended player to go on ir. The "i" stands for injured. An owner should have to burn a normal roster spot if they want to hold.
Why? Our league allows suspended players to sit on IR. I don't see how that makes our rules bad.

 
I think that it is very smart for Caldwell to float this information just prior to the NFL Draft, as it sends a message that they are potentially prepared to take Watkins or Evans with their first round pick, so if you desire either player, then you will need to trade with Jacksonville to insure that you will secure that player which you covet.
That makes sense. It will be interesting to see if they do or if a WR needy team trades up to get that pick.

 
I think the Holding has two risks: 1), if he has another mishap this year, he may never play again, and, 2) if he does come back in 2015, will he be the same after having been away from the team and organized play for so long? Is he disciplined enough to stay in shape while he is on his own?
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.
I think blackmon has top 20 talent at the wr position.

 
I think the Holding has two risks: 1), if he has another mishap this year, he may never play again, and, 2) if he does come back in 2015, will he be the same after having been away from the team and organized play for so long? Is he disciplined enough to stay in shape while he is on his own?
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.
In his last 13 games he's had at 5 receptions in 10 of them and 6 TD's. Three of those games were for 236, 190 and 136 yards.

For the Jags.

 
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I think the Holding has two risks: 1), if he has another mishap this year, he may never play again, and, 2) if he does come back in 2015, will he be the same after having been away from the team and organized play for so long? Is he disciplined enough to stay in shape while he is on his own?
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.
In his last 13 games he's had at 5 receptions in 10 of them and 6 TD's. Three of those games were for 236, 190 and 136 yards.

For the Jags.
Not sure what this means, here are his Game by Game yardage totals from 2012 and 2013.

Shows some great games and plenty of mediocre ones as well.

24

7

48

40

7

67

32

25

236

62

9

57

93

79

79

136

190

58

31

 
Zero alcohol will be very tough for him, IMO.
Zero alcohol is tough for any alcoholic, but amazingly, some manage. He can too.
The key is 'some'.
No ####. I don't need a lecture on this topic GB. My point was two fold: 1) identikit's post wasn't exactly insightful, b) some alcoholic's manage, even though it is tough for them. Zero alcohol is tough for every single alcoholic. Period.
 
Zero alcohol will be very tough for him, IMO.
Zero alcohol is tough for any alcoholic, but amazingly, some manage. He can too.
The key is 'some'.
No ####. I don't need a lecture on this topic GB. My point was two fold: 1) identikit's post wasn't exactly insightful, b) some alcoholic's manage, even though it is tough for them. Zero alcohol is tough for every single alcoholic. Period.
I'm with you...he's just got it a little different than most alcoholics.

What makes it tougher for him compared to other alcoholics is that he doesn't have the chance to fall off the wagon occasionally.

 
http://www.spiritualriver.com/what-is-the-percentage-of-alcoholics-who-stay-sober/

Next, you will see that of those who seek help and do attend treatment, only 1 out of 5 people will still be clean and sober after 90 days of leaving rehab. Ouch. A 20% success rate at the 90 day mark, and most people would like to think of abstinence as being “permanent.” The numbers get even worse if you go out to six months or a year.

Now take all of the people who made it to 90 days sober. About 5% of THOSE people will make it to 2 years sober.
 
I think the Holding has two risks: 1), if he has another mishap this year, he may never play again, and, 2) if he does come back in 2015, will he be the same after having been away from the team and organized play for so long? Is he disciplined enough to stay in shape while he is on his own?
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.
In his last 13 games he's had at 5 receptions in 10 of them and 6 TD's. Three of those games were for 236, 190 and 136 yards.

For the Jags.
Not sure what this means
It means monster numbers on a bad team with a bad QB. On field beast. Off field addict. Best hope is a Cris Carter type turn around, he has the talent for it.
 
http://www.spiritualriver.com/what-is-the-percentage-of-alcoholics-who-stay-sober/

Next, you will see that of those who seek help and do attend treatment, only 1 out of 5 people will still be clean and sober after 90 days of leaving rehab. Ouch. A 20% success rate at the 90 day mark, and most people would like to think of abstinence as being “permanent.” The numbers get even worse if you go out to six months or a year.

Now take all of the people who made it to 90 days sober. About 5% of THOSE people will make it to 2 years sober.
Interesting and all, but I'd love to see those numbers filtered for people who have a similar level of financial incentive to say sober as Blackmon does.

 
http://www.spiritualriver.com/what-is-the-percentage-of-alcoholics-who-stay-sober/

Next, you will see that of those who seek help and do attend treatment, only 1 out of 5 people will still be clean and sober after 90 days of leaving rehab. Ouch. A 20% success rate at the 90 day mark, and most people would like to think of abstinence as being “permanent.” The numbers get even worse if you go out to six months or a year.

Now take all of the people who made it to 90 days sober. About 5% of THOSE people will make it to 2 years sober.
Interesting and all, but I'd love to see those numbers filtered for people who have a similar level of financial incentive to say sober as Blackmon does.
I agree, he has far more motivation to stay sober than most people, however I also saw a study that showed that 'feeling bad' accounted for 38% of relapses. Feeling bad will be difficult to avoid as he'll have ups and downs after every game.

This paints a little more optimistic picture, especially if he can make it to a year sober:

The most thorough attempt to understand what happens to addicts and alcoholics who stay sober is an eight-year study of nearly 1200 addicts. They were able to follow up on over 94% of the study participants, and they found that extended abstinence really does predict long term recovery. Some takeaways from this research are:

  • Only about a third of people who are abstinent less than a year will remain abstinent.
  • For those who achieve a year of sobriety, less than half will relapse.
  • If you can make it to 5 years of sobriety, your chance of relapse is less than 15 percent.
 
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I think the Holding has two risks: 1), if he has another mishap this year, he may never play again, and, 2) if he does come back in 2015, will he be the same after having been away from the team and organized play for so long? Is he disciplined enough to stay in shape while he is on his own?
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.
In his last 13 games he's had at 5 receptions in 10 of them and 6 TD's. Three of those games were for 236, 190 and 136 yards.

For the Jags.
Not sure what this means
It means monster numbers on a bad team with a bad QB. On field beast. Off field addict. Best hope is a Cris Carter type turn around, he has the talent for it.
I looked at his production and he has had a couple good games, that is all. This is not a hype train thread. He is not a beast.
 
He def showed flashes of becoming a top 10 WR in FF. He wasn't consistent yet but it was still very early in his career.

 
Mid second rounder sounds about right. However in superflex I'm not so sure. I was looking at my rankings and it basically comes down to

Where does Blackmon rank in relationship to the following.

Landry

Moncrief

Latimer

Mathews

I'm not so sure I'd give up any of those players in a trade next week for Blackmon.

 
New owner doing a complete overhaul (clearing cap space) threw Blackmon & Kendall Wright at me for a 2015 3rd. Didn't even bother to counter and took it. He can sit on IR another year; at least Wright will put up some WR3 pts.
I have been endorsing people selling Blackmon for late firsts all offseason. This is one case I endorse buying him. Mostly because I think a 3rd rounder for Kendall Wright is a steal. Blackmon is just prop bet in this deal, and if he comes back strong gives you two solid WR's in that deal. Good thing you did not counter, it might have brought the other owner to his senses.......

 
I think the Holding has two risks: 1), if he has another mishap this year, he may never play again, and, 2) if he does come back in 2015, will he be the same after having been away from the team and organized play for so long? Is he disciplined enough to stay in shape while he is on his own?
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.
In his last 13 games he's had at 5 receptions in 10 of them and 6 TD's. Three of those games were for 236, 190 and 136 yards.

For the Jags.
Not sure what this means
It means monster numbers on a bad team with a bad QB. On field beast. Off field addict. Best hope is a Cris Carter type turn around, he has the talent for it.
I looked at his production and he has had a couple good games, that is all. This is not a hype train thread. He is not a beast.
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.

Your quote is above......20 wrs huh?

 
http://www.spiritualriver.com/what-is-the-percentage-of-alcoholics-who-stay-sober/

Next, you will see that of those who seek help and do attend treatment, only 1 out of 5 people will still be clean and sober after 90 days of leaving rehab. Ouch. A 20% success rate at the 90 day mark, and most people would like to think of abstinence as being “permanent.” The numbers get even worse if you go out to six months or a year.

Now take all of the people who made it to 90 days sober. About 5% of THOSE people will make it to 2 years sober.
Interesting and all, but I'd love to see those numbers filtered for people who have a similar level of financial incentive to say sober as Blackmon does.
I agree, he has far more motivation to stay sober than most people, however I also saw a study that showed that 'feeling bad' accounted for 38% of relapses. Feeling bad will be difficult to avoid as he'll have ups and downs after every game.

This paints a little more optimistic picture, especially if he can make it to a year sober:

The most thorough attempt to understand what happens to addicts and alcoholics who stay sober is an eight-year study of nearly 1200 addicts. They were able to follow up on over 94% of the study participants, and they found that extended abstinence really does predict long term recovery. Some takeaways from this research are:

  • Only about a third of people who are abstinent less than a year will remain abstinent.
  • For those who achieve a year of sobriety, less than half will relapse.
  • If you can make it to 5 years of sobriety, your chance of relapse is less than 15 percent.
Playing for the Jags will cause mostly downs i would assume...

 
I'm not totally up to date on all the specifics.....but does anybody know when a decision on his status will be made....I would think the NFL would have liked to have given JAC some idea where this stands prior to the draft.....when is Blackmon able to ask to be reinstated....

 
I'm not totally up to date on all the specifics.....but does anybody know when a decision on his status will be made....I would think the NFL would have liked to have given JAC some idea where this stands prior to the draft.....when is Blackmon able to ask to be reinstated....
I haven't seen anything official, but I believe he can ask now - but they can say you have to sit the rest of the year and then come back in 2015 or whatever. I think best case for the Jags is that he'll be suspended for the first 8 games of this year (to make the entire suspension a full 16 games).

 
I'm not totally up to date on all the specifics.....but does anybody know when a decision on his status will be made....I would think the NFL would have liked to have given JAC some idea where this stands prior to the draft.....when is Blackmon able to ask to be reinstated....
I haven't seen anything official, but I believe he can ask now - but they can say you have to sit the rest of the year and then come back in 2015 or whatever. I think best case for the Jags is that he'll be suspended for the first 8 games of this year (to make the entire suspension a full 16 games).
thats kind of what I was thinking.....make it a full 16 games and then let him back in......guys have been suspended much less for doing much more then hittin the bottle...

why is it hard to go ahead and make that call at this point....?....so the Jags would know....I haven't heard anything so I am assuming Blackmon is doing what he is supposed to.....you would think at some point they would have to tell him what the "timeline" is if he does everything he is supposed to be doing...

 
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New owner doing a complete overhaul (clearing cap space) threw Blackmon & Kendall Wright at me for a 2015 3rd. Didn't even bother to counter and took it. He can sit on IR another year; at least Wright will put up some WR3 pts.
I have been endorsing people selling Blackmon for late firsts all offseason. This is one case I endorse buying him. Mostly because I think a 3rd rounder for Kendall Wright is a steal. Blackmon is just prop bet in this deal, and if he comes back strong gives you two solid WR's in that deal. Good thing you did not counter, it might have brought the other owner to his senses.......
Kendall Wright and Blackmon for a 2015 3rd? If that happened in my league we'd be looking for a new owner again immediately. I don't know scoring system or cap rules, but I imagine he could have done a lot better than that. Crazy.

 
I'm not totally up to date on all the specifics.....but does anybody know when a decision on his status will be made....I would think the NFL would have liked to have given JAC some idea where this stands prior to the draft.....when is Blackmon able to ask to be reinstated....
I haven't seen anything official, but I believe he can ask now - but they can say you have to sit the rest of the year and then come back in 2015 or whatever. I think best case for the Jags is that he'll be suspended for the first 8 games of this year (to make the entire suspension a full 16 games).
thats kind of what I was thinking.....make it a full 16 games and then let him back in......guys have been suspended much less for doing much more then hittin the bottle...

why is it hard to go ahead and make that call at this point....?....so the Jags would know....I haven't heard anything so I am assuming Blackmon is doing what he is supposed to.....you would think at some point they would have to tell him what the "timeline" is if he does everything he is supposed to be doing...
I imagine that they want him passing tests for as long as possible so they can make a better case for reinstatement.

 
Yesterday I dealt Blackmon for the 2.02 and a mid to low 1st in 2015.

Seems like fair value considering the risk reward factor involved.

 
Some commentary on Tanard's suspension as it might relate to Blackmon. Tanard's indefinite suspension lasted 2 years.

http://members.jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/544821/ryan-ohalloran/2014-05-05/tanard-jackson-suspension-could-be-barometer-justin
Not really relevant in that it was Tanard's 2nd time getting an indefinite suspension. On his first indefinite suspension he was reinstated a year after he was suspended. Blackmon is on his first indefinite suspension which is more relevant than what happened during Tanard's 2nd.

Tanard was reinstated a year after he was suspended during his 1st, which is likely to be the case for Blackmon unless he fails another test during his suspension.

 
I think the Holding has two risks: 1), if he has another mishap this year, he may never play again, and, 2) if he does come back in 2015, will he be the same after having been away from the team and organized play for so long? Is he disciplined enough to stay in shape while he is on his own?
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.
In his last 13 games he's had at 5 receptions in 10 of them and 6 TD's. Three of those games were for 236, 190 and 136 yards.

For the Jags.
Not sure what this means
It means monster numbers on a bad team with a bad QB. On field beast. Off field addict. Best hope is a Cris Carter type turn around, he has the talent for it.
I looked at his production and he has had a couple good games, that is all. This is not a hype train thread. He is not a beast.
You ask "will he be the same?" Blackmon has had a few good games but I am not sure he was a feared reciever in the NFL. There are at least 20 guys I would take ahead of him even if he were not suspended.Your quote is above......20 wrs huh?
Minimum.
 
As reference, in a dynasty/keep forever league that's 1/1/2/1/1flex start paid 2nd + pierce (I have ray).

A little steep, but I think his value outcome is binary and people know it. If reinstated he's worth multiple firsts...else worthless. People who own him know and dont want to just take a lottery ticket (2nd rounder).

 
As reference, in a dynasty/keep forever league that's 1/1/2/1/1flex start paid 2nd + pierce (I have ray).

A little steep, but I think his value outcome is binary and people know it. If reinstated he's worth multiple firsts...else worthless. People who own him know and dont want to just take a lottery ticket (2nd rounder).
I don't think he's worth multiple 1sts if he's reinstated. There's no trust that he will remain reinstated. If he plays a full season maybe that value will start coming back, but I don't think there's a cash in opportunity just from him getting reinstated.

 
I'm not totally up to date on all the specifics.....but does anybody know when a decision on his status will be made....I would think the NFL would have liked to have given JAC some idea where this stands prior to the draft.....when is Blackmon able to ask to be reinstated....
I haven't seen anything official, but I believe he can ask now - but they can say you have to sit the rest of the year and then come back in 2015 or whatever. I think best case for the Jags is that he'll be suspended for the first 8 games of this year (to make the entire suspension a full 16 games).
thats kind of what I was thinking.....make it a full 16 games and then let him back in......guys have been suspended much less for doing much more then hittin the bottle...

why is it hard to go ahead and make that call at this point....?....so the Jags would know....I haven't heard anything so I am assuming Blackmon is doing what he is supposed to.....you would think at some point they would have to tell him what the "timeline" is if he does everything he is supposed to be doing...
I imagine that they want him passing tests for as long as possible so they can make a better case for reinstatement.
Plus we don't even know if he's been passing tests to this point since his indefinite suspension. Things are supposed to remain secret, and leaks of info (while they happen frequently) are a breach of confidentiality that is supposed to exist in the program. For all we know he may have failed again, or a number of times, since the indefinite suspension and he could be far, far from reinstatement. We just have no way of knowing. This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL. And before anyone says I'm overreacting, exactly what has the evidence supported so far? A guy who can manage his life or one who cannot?

 
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This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.
Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?

 
This is why I think it's nutzo when I see FF owners giving up 1st and even 2nd round picks for a guy who has a pretty good chance of being a total washout in the NFL.
Because a second-round rookie pick has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Blackmon has of staying clean for 3+ years? And it's nuts to think otherwise?
I think fantasy owners way overrate Blackmon's chances of being an impact player again. NFL teams won't build an offense around a guy, if and when he's reinstated, now that for the rest of his career he's one weak moment away from being out of the league indefinitely again. Teams want and need a lot more trust than that for their WR1. Sure he has a lot of talent, but teams can't operate that way. IMO he'll be considered a complementary player by his NFL team, a 'bonus' when he's available but not someone they'll count on. Disagree with my thinking, that's fine, but yes I'd prefer a 2nd round rookie pick (especially in this deep draft), and certainly a 1st, over Blackmon.

 
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