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Good point here. I'm looking at it this way:32 teamsAt least 12-13 are going to use a RBBC.That leaves 20 teams with a full time feature back. Half of those 20 will end up in the top 10. Barlow should be right around that cutoff despite San Francisco's apparent growing pains that they'll most likely experience with the loss of their recent players. I think Barlow is slightly overhyped. Players I like before him include:LT2PortisHolmesGreenMcAllisterLewisEdgeTaylorAlexanderFaulkHe could end up ahead of a couple of those 10, but there are other guys that could crack that list too like D. Davis, R. Johnson, Tiki, and maybe even Dillon if he gets his butt to the Raiders.
You like Barlow before R. Williams!!!
Ricky is the Value pick of the year, many are sleeping on him.
I'm not arguing, but the loss of Norv Turner and the obvious focus on the passing game certainly make Ricky a risky first round pick, IMO. Of 10 owners, I'd be surprised if 9 of them pass on Ricky in the first. Not everyone forgets he's only 1 season removed from 1800 rushing yards.You like Barlow before R. Williams!!!
Do the 27 TDs worry you as well?Although his 4.4 ypc in 2003 wasn't great, it was solid, and although he did turn 30, he's only been a full time starter for the past three years, so his wear and tear is limited. Plus he gets ALL the touches inside the 5, so he's a virtual lock for 20 TDs in that offense. In addition, Vermeil has stated that Holmes should be fully recovered from his hip injury and have the explosivness that he lacked in 2003. Pretty scary thought for the rest of the league. No disrespect intended, but to say that you wouldn't consider taking Holmes in a redraft league is just plain stupid......................I do agree with you on Barlow being in the top ten. Assuming no major injuries, he will get a ton of touches in that offense both running and receiving, and will slide past Fred Taylor and Ricky Williams into the 8 or 9 slot...................
Where would you rank Domanick Davis and Marcel Shipp amongst those guys? They are both young running backs with fresh legs and the opportunity to carry the load for their team. I like Domanick Davis, but he kind of scares me because he is in a similar situation as A-train was.
We could likely debate this all night, but which combination helps RB performance:- RB as the main cog in the offense with hardly any other support (Lewis, LT, etc.)- RB in a multi-facetsd offense (Faulk, Edge, etc.)Using the Houston improving/SF declining approach, where does that leave LT? SD has regressed on both sides of the ball. Does this mean LT falls off the map? (I think the extensive workload starts to chip away at his production this year.)
Jamal Lewis has a terrific Oline and Barlow doesnt have half the talent LT2 has. Do you think LT2, Jamal Lewis or Fred Taylor would have sat behind Hearst for 3 years? Hearst averaged the same YPC as Barlow over the last 4 years, so that tells me the running game was going to be successful with any decent RB. I do think Barlow has some talent, but not enough to carry a running game on his own like LT2 does.
Leaving Barlow completely out of things (I was not comparing Barlow's talent level to any of the backs I mentioned) . . .Do you think having other major offensive weapons helps or hurts RB numbers? And what happens to LT now that SD has no proven WR options (at least currently).
I think it depends on the RB and the team, but for the most part, a good passing game should help a RB. In Tomlinson case, it doesnt really matter, although i suspect he would put up similar numbers with a good WR/QB, but would probably do so with less touches.
Career carries:Holmes-------------1419Edge----------------1494Williams------------1589Taylor--------------1377Green--------------1269LT2-----------------1024 (3 years)Faulk---------------2576The reason Faulk started to wear down is because of the abuse that his body took. I think Pro athletes have proven that 30 is not old if your body is in good condition. I would be concerned about the abuse that Tomlinson has taken over the past three years more that I would be worried about Holmes age, especially in a redraft league.................
Who said anything about Barlow being in the same class as LT2? And the only person rating Barlow above Jamal Lewis is the same guy who said that he wouldn't draft Priest Holmes. And if Fred Taylor had been drafted into the same position as Barlow, he probably would have shared time with Hearst because Hearst has been a very productive back and as one of the leaders on the 49ers, he was going to be on the field. Also, Barlow has been in the league for only three years and his ypc has been better than Hearsts................2003-Hearst 4.3 Barlow 5.12002-Hearst 4.5 Barlow 4.72001-Hearst 4.8 Barlow 4.1 (Barlow also had limited carries in his rookie year)Also, pure talent wasn't the reason he split time with Hearst. Hearst was better in pass protection and as pointed out, still a productive runner, so why not use them both. When Barlow did get his chance when Hearst got injured, he showed that he had what it takes to win the job outright, which is why they got rid of Hearst...........Will be a real value in the 2nd round........................
I agree about Holmes in a re-draft ... but just because LT2 has racked up some good touches in 3 years isn't the same as calling it "abuse." Every time I get a chance to watch him it looks like he makes people miss and avoids the big hits. Cripes, this thread was about Barlow though ...1200+ yards even if the 49ers stink on ice
I'll be watching to O-Line carefully in pre-season.I was just making a comparison when I pointed out the number of carries that LT2 has had over the last three years, not implying that Tomlinson has any real concerns. Abuse was a bad choice of words, but I just think that people stating concerns about Holmes age are missing the point........................As a fellow Niner fan, I don't think things are quite as bad as people are making them out. Losing Owens will hurt big time, but the O-line will be fine as long as they don't have any injuries (because they have absolutly no experienced depth). Kosier played well last year which is why they felt OK to let Stone go (they could have found the money to keep him) and Harris should be ready to take over for Deese. Newberry, Gragg and Heitman return and should give Barlow some holes to run through...............Garcia has sucked the past two years and I'm glad to see they are giving Ratay a chance to start. I just think he has the intangibles to be a real good NFL QB. Losing Streets won't be a big deal as Lloyd has more upside and Wilson is just as good, but the question is "who replaces Owens"?I agree about Holmes in a re-draft ... but just because LT2 has racked up some good touches in 3 years isn't the same as calling it "abuse." Every time I get a chance to watch him it looks like he makes people miss and avoids the big hits. Cripes, this thread was about Barlow though ...1200+ yards even if the 49ers stink on ice
I'm with B.S. here, except I'd give Barlow the edge over those guys b/c he doesn't have the threat of a Tony Hollings or Corey Dillon on the roster. If Dillon gets moved, I'd probably still prefer Barlow over Rudi. But, all 3 are definitely in the same general area after the Henry/Taylor/Faulk grouping.
Sitting on a guy for 2 yrs and then letting some other owner reap the rewards is not gonna be a smart move IMO. What is not to like about Barlow's situation? NO rbbc, losing Garcia is not that big of a deal, Garcia is a systems qb and SF already has a replacement who has looked good last yr in Rattay. You do not have to be Favre to be a successful qb in SF offense. Losing Owens will hurt the most, but hopefully they can get one of the Williams boys to replace him. Yes they did lose a couple of OL, but they have Harris their 1st rd pick from last yr to plug in. OL and WR and CBshould be SF main concerns in the draft. Barlow will be top ten.
I agree he is a good prospect as he is a full time starter. As far as getting all the goal line carries in a division that you say is high powered....the 49ers are gonna be so far behind by the 2nd qtr they will have to pass all day. I do not like the things are shaping up in san fran.Im not saying wont produce. I am saying that i wouldnt be happy with him as my number 2. he isnt top 10 material. imho
Even if this were true, it shouldn't hurt Barlow's stats. More dumpoffs and more draws means less wear and tear and bigger #s. Last year's game against cincy, SF threw pretty much for an entire half playing catchup and barlow did just fine.
once again, for those who haven't realized this yet...Barlow is not equal to LT2.Some very talented RBs can be productive regardless of the garbage around them, while others require a bit better blocking and fewer 8 or 9 man fronts.I'm not saying Barlow can't be productive, but it is silly to think that if LT2 can put up numbers in San Diego, then an offensive line and effective passing game must not be very important.Let me ask this question: If you put Barlow on that Chargers team, do you think he'd be anywhere near as successful as LT2 has been?
Good point. He had 2 four quarter td's in like the last five minutes.
I do think Barlow is just about equal in talent to Tomlinson, but the big difference between the two so far is that Tomlinson has proved his durability and whereas Barlow is yet to prove it, until this yr. To answer your question, yes I think Barlow would put up numbers close to Tomlinson's with SD, if he stayed healthy for the whole yr and that is what Barlow has to prove.once again, for those who haven't realized this yet...Barlow is not equal to LT2.Some very talented RBs can be productive regardless of the garbage around them, while others require a bit better blocking and fewer 8 or 9 man fronts.I'm not saying Barlow can't be productive, but it is silly to think that if LT2 can put up numbers in San Diego, then an offensive line and effective passing game must not be very important.Let me ask this question: If you put Barlow on that Chargers team, do you think he'd be anywhere near as successful as LT2 has been?
I've used the same argument in other threads, and I am not a huge Barlow fan either. HOWEVER . . .If Barlow gets 300 carries (a big if, I know) AND 50 receptions (which is not that unreasonable), I don't think Top 10 is being unreasonable. Top 20 would be a VIRTUAL LOCK.Here's how RB with 300+ carries did in the last 5 years and their fantasy rankings:200313 RB. 1-4, 6-12, 18, 2220029 RB. 1-3, 6-8, 10, 12, 16200110 RB. 2-8, 10, 14, 1920009 RB. 2-3, 10-12, 14, 16-17, 1919996 RB. 1, 3, 5, 8-10Considering Barlow had over 200 carries and 35 receptions in split duty and was only a regular starter at the end of the season, I don't think it is a stretch for him to get 300 carries. In his 4 starts, he had 80 carries, so that would put him at 320 carries if his carries were projected out for starting all 16 games.
I agree. I'd rather have a 25 year stud than a 30 year old stud everything else being equal. However, I'd rather have a 30 year old SUPER stud with very few career carries than a 25 year old mediocre stud with just as many career carries.Mediocre stud may sound like an oxymoron, but there are degrees of studness. Priest Holmes just broke the TD record last year and he would have done it the year before had he not missed the last two games. Who knows? Maybe Faulk will have a great year. I've always thought of him as a poor man's Priest Holmes. :rotflmao:
I don't have any numbers in front of me, but.....The last time the Niners had a huge rushing year, wasn't it Garcia's first year, when the entire passing O was in the Toliet? Isn't that a similar setup to this season?
Nobody said you had to listen. Close minded people is what makes winning easy for the other people in leagues. Did Tomlinson lead the league in rushing? Did he set the season rushing record? Oh wait a minute he must have led the league in TDS, no I checked he didn't. Tomlinson is a talented back, but Barlow is close to being just as talented. Like I stated earlier the only difference is that Tomlinson has proved he is a durable all purpose back and now Barlow must prove that he can be one over the course of an entire season. Barlow rushed for over 1000 yds with only 6 or so starts. He helped me win a couple of league titles last yr with his play down the stretch.
Great post.Keep 'em coming.
