Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Larry Johnson-One of the more debated RB's (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bankerguy
- Start date
sholditch
Footballguy
I predict he will be one of the better values this year. We all know he's a good back. The chiefs have improved their line and their defense, which should both help the running game. The big knock on him last year was the amount of carries he had. HE had only 158 carries last year, and only played in 8 games. An ankle iunjury isn't the worst thing to have to get over, and if reports are good, he could be excellent value for the middle to late 1st round.
Banger
Footballguy
He's one of a handful workhorse backs in the leagues and if he stays healthy he'll probably be in the top 2-3 in touch's. Watching and reading about the progress of their line, QB and WR situation will determine a lot in my mind. Last year was an absolute train wreck and it would be hard to replicate that futility. I think they will be slightly better but I'm not expecting a big improvement at this point. As of right now I'd predict him at...
330 (3.8) 1254 yrds - 10 tds
45 (9) 405 - 1 td
I think he'll end up being a solid pick in the 8-9 range where he's slotted now with some good upside potential.
330 (3.8) 1254 yrds - 10 tds
45 (9) 405 - 1 td
I think he'll end up being a solid pick in the 8-9 range where he's slotted now with some good upside potential.
Banger
Footballguy
actually it was a broken bone in his foot...but I agree with your other points.
socrates
Footballguy
I think those are fair expectations. In my league, that would have made him the third-ranked RB last season (admittedly a down season for RBs).
My predictions are right on track with yours.
325 Rushes
1,300 Yards
14 TDs
40 Receptions
250 Yards
1TD
I could see a dip in the receptions if they bring in Jamaal Charles as part of their third down offense. Does anyone have some insight on Charles' blocking ability? Texas fans?
My predictions are right on track with yours.
325 Rushes
1,300 Yards
14 TDs
40 Receptions
250 Yards
1TD
I could see a dip in the receptions if they bring in Jamaal Charles as part of their third down offense. Does anyone have some insight on Charles' blocking ability? Texas fans?
Maroney=Sped
Footballguy
I hate trying to incorporate injury predictions into my projections, so I usually don't, but LJ almost certainly doesn't play 16 games, which means that he only barely gets to 300 carries.
I'd expect something along the lines of 300/1150/11 and 40/240/1, or worse if injuries affect him like last year.
He's still valuable, but is no longer a stud like he was. I think he's Shaun Alexander, minus one or two years (which incidentally is the difference in their ages).
I'd expect something along the lines of 300/1150/11 and 40/240/1, or worse if injuries affect him like last year.
He's still valuable, but is no longer a stud like he was. I think he's Shaun Alexander, minus one or two years (which incidentally is the difference in their ages).
Charles is not going to be ready to protect the QB in his rookie year. He is one of the least well-rounded RB prospects in the top 10.
Banger
Footballguy
by taking arguably the best player in the draft, Dorsey but they did lose Allen so....
Last edited by a moderator:
I can't imagine he's a worse pass blocker than LJ. Johnson may be the worst pass blocking RB in the NFL, mostly because he gives zero effort. That was the main thing Vermeil hated about him.I also wonder about LJ's foot injury, it may fine, but it still concerns me enough to bump LJ down a few spots.
Last edited by a moderator:
socrates
Footballguy
Thank you.
Banger
Footballguy
those modest #'s would place him RB #8 last year which is right around where he's being slotted this year....
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
He's worse at pass protection than Chris Johnson? I find that hard to believe.
munchkin
Footballguy
I am not an expert on RB analysis but how does one year of "overuse" and one year of "normal" RB 1 carries translate into an overused RB on the downside of his career? Career Stats Rushing Receiving Fumb. KO Ret Punt Ret Year Team G Rush Yds Y/G Avg 100 Yd TD 2003 KC 6 20 85 14.2 4.3 0 1 2004 KC 10 120 581 58.1 4.8 3 9 2005 KC 16 336 1750 109.4 5.2 10 20 2006 KC 16 416 1789 111.8 4.3 11 17 2007 KC 8 158 559 69.9 3.5 3 3 I think this year will be a measure of how much LJ wants it. He certainly will be affected by the offense being rebuilt but if he can get some decent blocking and there is a passing game that can keep the defenses honest then he should have a reasonable season provided he can play hard through the growing pains.I know that's a lot of if's but i don't think it's unreasonable to expect 1,500-1,700 total yards and 15-18 td's.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
The guy parties like no other. He is almost single handedly keeping half the bars and club in South beach open right now. Slight exaggeration but since he signed that lucrative contract, the man has been a pimp.
What is the connection ot Miami you ask? His good buddy and teammate Patrick Surtain who is usually with him. I have no link, no report, but I've seen him a lot down here...and I don't go out that much.
What is the connection ot Miami you ask? His good buddy and teammate Patrick Surtain who is usually with him. I have no link, no report, but I've seen him a lot down here...and I don't go out that much.
Banger
Footballguy
I agree. I think many people make much too much of an issue of carries/touchs. I want my RB to get as many touch's as possible and those are the RB's I tend to target. RB is a violent position and nearly all of them get hurt, it may be on the 10th carry, 100th carry, 300th carry. I don't buy into the fact that there is some magic number of carries at which a RB will "break down" and don't take it into account at all for redraft purposes.
eric rymer
Footballguy
I pretty much feel the same way. I'd expect 13-14 total TD's. I think your projections for touches and yardage are spot on. I would expect a couple more rec TD's if he can stay healthy. At least I sure hope so.Banger said:
Maroney=Sped
Footballguy
jgb95
Footballguy
I just traded LJ for this package:
Charles Grant
Ricky Williams
2009 1st
2010 2nd
Team has been the worst team for three years running (will be a top 3 pick) I also have 2 other 2009 1st's.
Here are my current RB's after the trade (we can only start 1 / week):
Ryan Grant
Ronnie Brown
Frank Gore
Ricky Williams
Here are my current DE's after the trade:
Julius Peppers
Wale Ogunleye
Ray Edwards
Charles Grant
12 points for a sack.
Charles Grant
Ricky Williams
2009 1st
2010 2nd
Team has been the worst team for three years running (will be a top 3 pick) I also have 2 other 2009 1st's.
Here are my current RB's after the trade (we can only start 1 / week):
Ryan Grant
Ronnie Brown
Frank Gore
Ricky Williams
Here are my current DE's after the trade:
Julius Peppers
Wale Ogunleye
Ray Edwards
Charles Grant
12 points for a sack.
greenf7cat
Footballguy
yeah, considering he has been hurt 1 time in his entire football career..
Bankerguy
Footballguy
Thanks for the update on your team, we are all riveted. Care to post a projection his stats this year?
Maroney=Sped
Footballguy
Yep, just like Shaun Alexander.yeah, considering he has been hurt 1 time in his entire football career..
He, Johnson, and Kevin Smith are all in the running.
greenf7cat
Footballguy
LJ has played a lot less football than Shaun AlexanderYep, just like Shaun Alexander.yeah, considering he has been hurt 1 time in his entire football career..
jgb95
Footballguy
Thanks for being a wise guy!!!!200 / 8506 TD's25 rec / 1251 TDthis is of course w/ an injuryDon't think he plays 16 games
hitmenssharpshooters
Footballguy
I think he will hold out of camp,suffer a major injury week 1,never play in the NFL again.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Johnson puts forth less effort than a frigid woman in bed.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
I hate drafting guys like Larry Johnson. He was a stud running back who fell off last season but you'd never know it by the way people still gush about him. Therefore he still has a premium price tag (1st round pick, high auction price, whatever). At best you get a first round-pick for the price of a first-round pick. There's not much value in that but that's fine. More likely you wind up with a player that disappoints yet again if not completely busting outright. LJ's just not worth it. I don't see myself drafting him in any leagues this year.
Maroney=Sped
Footballguy
And yet, he got injured faster. And he's also only two years younger. LJ's best years are behind him.LJ has played a lot less football than Shaun AlexanderYep, just like Shaun Alexander.yeah, considering he has been hurt 1 time in his entire football career..
Banger
Footballguy
I don't see many gushing over him, most seem to be reasonable projections. The gushing went on two years ago and I was on the other side of that argument. Are people downgrading SJax due to his injury and heavy prior workload? Jackson has 1161 career touches and LJ has 1177 a WHOPPING difference of 16 touchs in 4 seasons yet LJ is a former stud ready to be put out to pasture and SJax goes on without a blip. My point is to not downgrade Sjax but just to point out the herd mentality and hypocrisy that get applied to certain players. Compare the two guys, both lines are horrible, both defenses are horrible, one team has a QB that plays 1/2 the games and the other has no QB, one team has a good wr and the other has an up and coming wr and good TE. Both are talented workhorse backs yet the perceptions are night and day. Why?
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
We must have been watching different Chiefs games then because LJ was awful last season. If you want to blame the line or whatever fine but outside of a couple of quarters in games against the Chargers and Bengals he was pretty horrible. The numbers back it up too. 3.5 yards per carry? That's terrible.
IM666
Footballguy
I seem to recall that Johnson had a terrible schedule in 2007. Many on this board thought that his real value would be in the later weeks and especially during FF playoffs/championship. It is not that surprising he would be described as awful for 2007; he was injured before he had a chance to run against some of the softer run defenses in the league.
Banger
Footballguy
What's funny is that while LJ played the toughest part of his schedule and was just getting to the juicy part when he got hurt he still scored 98.5 points in 8 games. Over a 16 game schedule it extrapolates to 197 points which would have put him 7th in RB scoring last year. In '06 when RB scoring was much high he would have come in 10th. Not nearly as horrible a year as many think it was.
Last edited by a moderator:
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
They're both 1st round picks so the perception isn't that different. I see what you're saying though. I'd say that the difference between the two is that overall the talent is better on the Rams than it is on the Chiefs. QB, O-Line are all better for the Rams. Also Steven Jackson has shown that even in a poor situation that he can still be a very good running back in fantasy. I didn't see that from Larry Johnson last year. Unless there's some major changes going on in Kansas City I don't see much difference between 2007 LJ and 2008 LJ and that's someone I'm not drafting as a #1 running back.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
This is what I was thinking. I'm avoiding LJ.1100/7250/0I put him in the 12-15 range this year and after that it goes even farther down. I think Edwards play calling is ridiculously simplistic and I don't see much of a passing attack. Without the line opening gaping holes for him as they did when he was a force, he's going to be stomped in the backfield a lot...
Ned
Footballguy
i always love these blind comparisons that people like to make. lets hear some real analysis on why these two are so similar. i'll hang up and listen.And yet, he got injured faster. And he's also only two years younger. LJ's best years are behind him.LJ has played a lot less football than Shaun AlexanderYep, just like Shaun Alexander.yeah, considering he has been hurt 1 time in his entire football career..
Banger
Footballguy
as I said above, even with his "horrible" year last year LJ was on pace to be the #7 RB in the league. I wasn't really focussing on the personnel between the two teams although I think they are comparable, I was more referring to the perception that LJ is about done and is on the way down and I never hear that about SJax despite their comparable skillset, playing styles, workload, injury history, etc.SJax is currently ranked 3rd and his pro-rated stats from last year would have put him 6th while LJ is ranked 8-9th and his pro-rated stats last year would have put him 7th. Due to his workload, if LJ plays a full schedule he's definitely a top 10 back.
Last edited by a moderator:
munchkin
Footballguy
LJ sat out due to contract negotiations as well. The later part of his schedule including the FF playoffs was were we LJ owners were hoping to make hay. I do think that despite the new contract he didn't always play smart and with great effort due to his frustration with the overall offense which include an O-Line that he believed was not blocking well.
IM666
Footballguy
You are probably 100% correct; I was merely summarizing what I had seen this past year on the board. It was suggested by some that, after the first few weeks, LJ should be targeted as a buy low candidate if the current LJ owner was perceived as "short-sighted". In my league, everyone must have read the same thing, because 80% of the owners offered a trade to the person that had LJ in week 5.
Banger
Footballguy
link?
sholditch
Footballguy
Umm, by landing the top-ranked defensive prospect in the draft? And getting a highly-rated corner in the 2nd in Brandon Flowers? But you might be referring to the loss of Jared Allen. Let's at least say they broke even there. Dorsey is a freakin beast the likes of Tommie Harris.
JKL
Footballguy
Wow, I clearly need some of what is being passed around in this room. I’m an LJ fan and a Chiefs fan, but wow. I hope these projections come true, it means the Chiefs are a heck of a lot better than I think they are in 2008. AFC Championship Game, here we come!
My first question is, when people are making a projection, is that supposed to represent the average, the best case scenario, the totals assuming a player plays all 16 games? Because to me, it doesn't seem like people are regressing predictions based on average outcome at all.
I added up the projections that are listed. Of the 7 that list a rush attempt total (or adopt someone elses by reference), 5 project at least 325 rush attempts. 7 of the 13 project 1500 or more total yards, 7 of the 13 project 11 or more total td's. The average projected FP total is 204.7.
Q: How many running backs have rushed the ball at least 325 times in a single season at age 29 (Johnson's age in 2008), in the history of the league?
A: Three. Eddie George (343), James Stewart (339), and Barry Sanders (335). A total of fourteen have rushed the ball at least 300 times in a season at age 29 (E. James, C. White, T. Barber, E. Smith, R. Watters, S. Davis, W. Payton, E. Dickerson, P. Holmes, T. Jones, A. Johnson).
What did these 14 backs have in common? Some were established stars, some came out of nowhere to get an opportunity. First, they were mostly healthy the year before. 11 of the 14 played in every game at age 28, Anthony Johnson played in 15 the year before, James Stewart in 14, and Stephen Davis in 12. Average games played at age 28=15.5. Second, they played on mostly decent to good teams. Only Tiki Barber, Charles White, and Thomas Jones played on teams with losing records at age 29.
I'm not going to say something can't happen. If you have played fantasy football long enough, you've seen just about everything. But I sure don't expect these numbers out of LJ in 2008 for any number of reasons. Too many things have to go right.
Could LJ be completely healed and have no lingering effects from a broken foot, the type of injury that has effectively ended some careers? Maybe, but we sure don't know yet, and I don't like a foot injury on a big back on the wrong side of the running back age curve.
Could LJ return to the form he showed at age 26 and 27? Probably not, at least based on history, but okay, within the realm of possibility.
Could the offensive line return to the form from 2002-2005, when Roaf was at LT and Shields at RG? NO. It probably should be a little better than last year, but will be incorporated rookies and new players and trying to piece something together.
Might Brodie Croyle be the next big QB breakout star, thus moving the offense into position for LJ to score all these short TD runs people are projecting? Possible. I don't see it, but within the realm of possibility.
Might the Chiefs pass D be improved, and able to hold the leads that the breakout star Croyle builds in the first half? Jared Allen is gone. That spot will be manned by someone who played DT last year. This is certainly possible. I like the chances in 2009 more than 2008, but okay.
Might Dorothy pull back the curtain, revealing the Wizard, try to get back to Kansas in a hot air balloon that floats away without her, then tap her heels together and return to Kansas? Yes.
Basically, all/most of these things are going to have to happen for LJ to reach the average projection on this board so far. Banger doesn't see "many gushing over him . . . most seem to be reasonable projections." I see people expecting one of the best RB seasons at age 29 this side of Priest Holmes 2002, and I don't think that's reasonable. LJ has to be healthy and back to form coming off a broken foot already preceded by a noticeable drop in performance, has to be playing behind a much improved offensive line, supported by dramatically better QB play so that drives are sustained and red zone opps are there, and bolstered by a solid pass defense to help hold a lead and give more 2nd half rush opportunities, on a team that is contending for the AFC West and a playoff spot, in order to sniff these numbers. Too many ifs/ands/or buts for me. Low end RB2 that will cost you RB1 price. Given what I am seeing here, highly doubtful he is on any team I participate with in 2008.
My projection (and this is intended as a median projection):
13 GP, 230 rush att., 870 rush yards, 3.8 ypc, 20 rec, 130 rec yds, 7 total td's. 142 Fant. Pts. 10.9 FP/G (non-PPR, standard).
My first question is, when people are making a projection, is that supposed to represent the average, the best case scenario, the totals assuming a player plays all 16 games? Because to me, it doesn't seem like people are regressing predictions based on average outcome at all.
I added up the projections that are listed. Of the 7 that list a rush attempt total (or adopt someone elses by reference), 5 project at least 325 rush attempts. 7 of the 13 project 1500 or more total yards, 7 of the 13 project 11 or more total td's. The average projected FP total is 204.7.
Q: How many running backs have rushed the ball at least 325 times in a single season at age 29 (Johnson's age in 2008), in the history of the league?
A: Three. Eddie George (343), James Stewart (339), and Barry Sanders (335). A total of fourteen have rushed the ball at least 300 times in a season at age 29 (E. James, C. White, T. Barber, E. Smith, R. Watters, S. Davis, W. Payton, E. Dickerson, P. Holmes, T. Jones, A. Johnson).
What did these 14 backs have in common? Some were established stars, some came out of nowhere to get an opportunity. First, they were mostly healthy the year before. 11 of the 14 played in every game at age 28, Anthony Johnson played in 15 the year before, James Stewart in 14, and Stephen Davis in 12. Average games played at age 28=15.5. Second, they played on mostly decent to good teams. Only Tiki Barber, Charles White, and Thomas Jones played on teams with losing records at age 29.
I'm not going to say something can't happen. If you have played fantasy football long enough, you've seen just about everything. But I sure don't expect these numbers out of LJ in 2008 for any number of reasons. Too many things have to go right.
Could LJ be completely healed and have no lingering effects from a broken foot, the type of injury that has effectively ended some careers? Maybe, but we sure don't know yet, and I don't like a foot injury on a big back on the wrong side of the running back age curve.
Could LJ return to the form he showed at age 26 and 27? Probably not, at least based on history, but okay, within the realm of possibility.
Could the offensive line return to the form from 2002-2005, when Roaf was at LT and Shields at RG? NO. It probably should be a little better than last year, but will be incorporated rookies and new players and trying to piece something together.
Might Brodie Croyle be the next big QB breakout star, thus moving the offense into position for LJ to score all these short TD runs people are projecting? Possible. I don't see it, but within the realm of possibility.
Might the Chiefs pass D be improved, and able to hold the leads that the breakout star Croyle builds in the first half? Jared Allen is gone. That spot will be manned by someone who played DT last year. This is certainly possible. I like the chances in 2009 more than 2008, but okay.
Might Dorothy pull back the curtain, revealing the Wizard, try to get back to Kansas in a hot air balloon that floats away without her, then tap her heels together and return to Kansas? Yes.
Basically, all/most of these things are going to have to happen for LJ to reach the average projection on this board so far. Banger doesn't see "many gushing over him . . . most seem to be reasonable projections." I see people expecting one of the best RB seasons at age 29 this side of Priest Holmes 2002, and I don't think that's reasonable. LJ has to be healthy and back to form coming off a broken foot already preceded by a noticeable drop in performance, has to be playing behind a much improved offensive line, supported by dramatically better QB play so that drives are sustained and red zone opps are there, and bolstered by a solid pass defense to help hold a lead and give more 2nd half rush opportunities, on a team that is contending for the AFC West and a playoff spot, in order to sniff these numbers. Too many ifs/ands/or buts for me. Low end RB2 that will cost you RB1 price. Given what I am seeing here, highly doubtful he is on any team I participate with in 2008.
My projection (and this is intended as a median projection):
13 GP, 230 rush att., 870 rush yards, 3.8 ypc, 20 rec, 130 rec yds, 7 total td's. 142 Fant. Pts. 10.9 FP/G (non-PPR, standard).
ShadowPhunk
Footballguy
To all you guys with the double digit TD dreams for this guys:The entire team had SIX rushing TDs last year.Herminated
The Jacket
Footballguy
This thread makes for a great bump in December.
16gp
275 rushes (Jamaal Charles was a steal, and Kolby Smith was, too)
1100 yards (playing it reasonably safe at a solid 4.0ypc; I think KC's O-line will be respectable pass-blocking but average at best run-blocking)
10 TDs (he had three in eight games last year, six if you pro-rate that over the season; he played the worst he has his entire career, as did the O-line; he never got into the easy part of the schedule, for example playing the Raiders for a second time which is an easy 120+ yards and a score)
35 receptions (underrated receiver)
340 yards (very underrated after-the-catch receiver; very explosive and often busts long gains).
16gp
275 rushes (Jamaal Charles was a steal, and Kolby Smith was, too)
1100 yards (playing it reasonably safe at a solid 4.0ypc; I think KC's O-line will be respectable pass-blocking but average at best run-blocking)
10 TDs (he had three in eight games last year, six if you pro-rate that over the season; he played the worst he has his entire career, as did the O-line; he never got into the easy part of the schedule, for example playing the Raiders for a second time which is an easy 120+ yards and a score)
35 receptions (underrated receiver)
340 yards (very underrated after-the-catch receiver; very explosive and often busts long gains).
