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LeGarrette Blount signs with NE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Raider Nation
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SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Was just offered Snead and Doug Martin for Blount. Problem is I have to start Duke Johnson in a start 1 RB league until Martin or Rawls comes back. I'm 1-3.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
There would be a higher concern in he were asked to do what Palmer and Flacco are asked to do, but its "dink and dunk" option route football, so the primary issue is staying healthy for the next couple seasons then perhaps physical skills (reaction time, accuracy) begin to erode at 41....good news is Garapolo appears ready when the time comes.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Brady has already been on the steady decline the past few years. However, the Patriots have kept ahead of that by changing their offense.Chaka said:
Brady's downfield accuracy and completion percentage has been in a free fall, which is why they have gone to the uber short stuff the past few years. He rarely throws the ball over 10 yards anymore. And when he does, it is usually not across the field, it is very north and south.
Brady has mastered how to read defenses and calling the right play. I don't think his ability to read defenses won't change with age, and since Brady throws such short routes, I am not sure how much age enters into it.
Brady runs the biggest risk of getting hurt and not recovering quickly. That's probably the biggest risk.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
8 ppg is a good floor.
I think Brady coming back helps Blount. More leads = more time to kill.
The key difference compared to previous years is the two TE sets with Gronk and Bennett. This is why I think Blount will keep his value.
I think Brady coming back helps Blount. More leads = more time to kill.
The key difference compared to previous years is the two TE sets with Gronk and Bennett. This is why I think Blount will keep his value.
Chaka
Footballguy
Great analysis but at some point the mind continues to be willing but the body is no longer able. Manning's decline was...precipitous.
Shutout
Footballguy
Highly situational, especially when Lewis returns and especially if the patriots look like they will be headed towards a clash with the broncos because while Blount might be in some games and getting the great garbage points or breaking off a long run against a whipped team, he might also be taking a back seat and completely missing those one or two big plays.
At at its best, the patriots entire game is fast, short, and mismatches that play into almost every other rb's wheel house except Blount. Blount becomes the "specialist" where every now and then the matchups line up just right and he ends up featured. That's why we see those stats of 7/8/23/6/8. It's hard to live with in fantasy.
And then when you think of what this team is really trying to do, you know that after what happened last year, they look at teams like the broncos who are the main obstacles and you know they want to have Blount for those games, fresh and ready. Problem is, ff owners don't care too much about wild card weekend when Blount is used sparingly in weeks 15 and 16 to have him ready.
The best rb a fantasy guy can have is the one the team can't live without, the one that is on the team scratching and clawing to make the playoffs (and will play hard in ff playoff weeks), and the kind that is simply matchup proof. That is why the jamaal Charles, Eddie lacy, Peterson types, etc are so valuable. They are always in the right situation in fantasy crunch time. This year, a guy like Lamar Miller and Melvin Gordon and tevin Coleman might be those guys, but I doubt it's Blount. He will either be a low option or sitting in the wings waiting for what is needed later.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The "they'll have more leads" thing sounds much nicer in theory than it is in practice. For as good as the Patriots are, this isn't Alabama vs. an FCS opponent we're talking here. Realistically they win via blowout in maybe a quarter to a third of their games (they had a two score lead in the 4th quarter in 5 of their 18 games last year), and there is no guarantee that in those games they are necessarily going to pound Blount every time or that Blount is going to be effective with those carries every time. We're talking low percentage stacked on top of low percentage here.
Getting 20+ carries consistently as a major part of the gameplan was much better than relying on the somewhat occasional big lead to get close to that number.
Getting 20+ carries consistently as a major part of the gameplan was much better than relying on the somewhat occasional big lead to get close to that number.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Last year blount was better than people seem to remember. He outscored jeremy hill and demarco murray in ppg. Depending on how you used him you got between 10 and 13.8 ppg from him in non ppr, and probably about 12.5. As a frame of reference, matt forte was rb7 in ppg with 13 ppg, doug martin was rb9 with 12.1, and blount was actually rb25.
Here's what i mean by depending how you used him.
Week 1 suspended
Week 2 2 carries for 4 yards in first game back vs the bills
Week 3 18 carries, 78 yards, 3 tds and a 14 yard catch vs the jaguars
Week 4 bye
Week 5 13 rushes 74 yards vs cowboys. Dion lewis had one of the best td catch and runs in history.
Week 6 16 rushes 93 yards 1 td vs colts.
Week 7 3 rushes -3 yards vs jets
Week 8 17 rushes 72 yards vs dolphins 1 rec 2 yards
Week 9 29 rushes 129 yards 1 td vs redskins
Week 10 19 rushes 66 yards 1 td 2 catches 11 yards vs giants
Week 11 vs bills 16 for 56 plus a 5 yard catch
Week 12 at denver 9 for 27
Week 13 vs eagles 13 for 54
Week 14 at texans 10 for 53 injured mid game
Week 15 on out for season
Again - if you indiscriminately started him all those games, including at denver, you got 746 and 7 tds in 12 games for a total of 123.4 points or over 10 ppg in non standard. If you only benched him 3 times - his first game back, against the jets, and at denver - you got 718/7 in 9 games or 12.5 ppg.
I think those kinds of numbers are repeatable this year. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry in 2014, 4.3 in 2015, and only 4.0 this year. It's worth pointing out that he only had 7 carries for 11 yards in the first half against the texans, before adding 17 carries for 94 yards and 2 tds in the second half. I agree with the people saying that it seems reasonable to think that his second half production would be hurt if he's not running out leads, but it's equally reasonable to think his first half production will be helped because he won't have a third string qb handing the ball to him every time they get a first down.
Here's what i mean by depending how you used him.
Week 1 suspended
Week 2 2 carries for 4 yards in first game back vs the bills
Week 3 18 carries, 78 yards, 3 tds and a 14 yard catch vs the jaguars
Week 4 bye
Week 5 13 rushes 74 yards vs cowboys. Dion lewis had one of the best td catch and runs in history.
Week 6 16 rushes 93 yards 1 td vs colts.
Week 7 3 rushes -3 yards vs jets
Week 8 17 rushes 72 yards vs dolphins 1 rec 2 yards
Week 9 29 rushes 129 yards 1 td vs redskins
Week 10 19 rushes 66 yards 1 td 2 catches 11 yards vs giants
Week 11 vs bills 16 for 56 plus a 5 yard catch
Week 12 at denver 9 for 27
Week 13 vs eagles 13 for 54
Week 14 at texans 10 for 53 injured mid game
Week 15 on out for season
Again - if you indiscriminately started him all those games, including at denver, you got 746 and 7 tds in 12 games for a total of 123.4 points or over 10 ppg in non standard. If you only benched him 3 times - his first game back, against the jets, and at denver - you got 718/7 in 9 games or 12.5 ppg.
I think those kinds of numbers are repeatable this year. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry in 2014, 4.3 in 2015, and only 4.0 this year. It's worth pointing out that he only had 7 carries for 11 yards in the first half against the texans, before adding 17 carries for 94 yards and 2 tds in the second half. I agree with the people saying that it seems reasonable to think that his second half production would be hurt if he's not running out leads, but it's equally reasonable to think his first half production will be helped because he won't have a third string qb handing the ball to him every time they get a first down.
JFS171
Footballguy
Pats homers - who's the backup here? Blount missing from the start of Thursday's practice after being limited yesterday. Not good...
Is Gaffney still on the PS? Would they turn to Bolden? More White? Foster gets involved?
I know the Brady return has people thinking they'll run less, but Blount could easily be more valuable with clock killing carries and goal line work for an offense that's gonna chase 50 every week...
Is Gaffney still on the PS? Would they turn to Bolden? More White? Foster gets involved?
I know the Brady return has people thinking they'll run less, but Blount could easily be more valuable with clock killing carries and goal line work for an offense that's gonna chase 50 every week...
JFS171
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Bolden hurt his knee last week and should be out for awhile. Gaffney is not on the practice squad and hurt his foot before the season started. so those two are not really options.
Brady is probably going to kick start the offense, so I am guessing they run their version of a no huddle/hurry up offense at times. Would not be shocked if Brady had 50 passing attempts. Could be 52-0 and I still think Brady will want to pass.
I don't think the Pats run all that much this week. Will have to see what Blount does at practice tomorrow.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't get this. I mean yeah, it could work out that way, and Torrey Smith could outscore Julio Jones the rest of the year.JFS171 said:
We've seen Blount with and without Brady. He's averaged 14.4ppg without him and roughly 8ppg with him. It seems pretty clear which scenario is better for him.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Why is FBG's so low on James White this week. If Blount misses. James White is the play? will he carry the ball or likely be a 3-5 catch RB. he's in free agency in my short bench league currently starting Bernard (Ingram on bye)
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
We have a pretty huge sample size of his games with Brady, 48 of them. And he wasn't anywhere near as useful in fantasy as he was in this 4 game stretch without him.
He's played 48 games with Brady and 4 games without him, yet 3 of his top 4 games in carries came from that 4 game stretch without him. It would take some utterly insane variance to account for that if it were just sample variation. We're talking a four one thousandths of one percent chance (0.004%) of that happening just based on sample variation alone.
I'd love for Blount to keep rolling (and this week against Cleveland looks good if he plays) but I'm certainly not counting on it. I think it's much more likely that we're going back to the headache of not knowing where we're going to get 2 points or 22 on any given week, as it has been the last 48 games with Brady.
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need2know
Footballguy
I picked up white and am using him in a ppr. Alot of guys on bye. He seems as good a play as about 15 other rbs. Looking over whites play the last few games with brady last year shows some decent usage. I am thinking he does ok regardless if Blount plays or not. You know brady is gonna want to throw
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need2know
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
I think most agree that Blount's value will likely decline with Brady back, largely because the offense won't lean as heavily on Blount.
That said, past performance is not indicative of future results, so while it is safe to say that the offense will continue to run through Brady, it's also conceivable that Blount does carry the ball with greater regularity (assuming the Pats are not playing from behind) than in the past when Brady is at QB. The defense, for instance, looks to be better than in recent years.
I wouldn't bank on Blount regularly carrying the ball 15-20+ times, but backwards-looking tendencies can sometimes backfire.
That said, past performance is not indicative of future results, so while it is safe to say that the offense will continue to run through Brady, it's also conceivable that Blount does carry the ball with greater regularity (assuming the Pats are not playing from behind) than in the past when Brady is at QB. The defense, for instance, looks to be better than in recent years.
I wouldn't bank on Blount regularly carrying the ball 15-20+ times, but backwards-looking tendencies can sometimes backfire.
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davewwright
Footballguy
Ssshhh...DJ runs between the tackles far better than White who is a pass catching option. Brady is rusty, and the Cleveland run D is fairly suspect. If any signs that Blount is out, Foster hits my starting lineup
TheFanatic
Footballguy
So Belichek is known for doing the same thing year after year, game after game. They just crushed their first 4 games for a 3-1 record with their 2nd and 3rd QB's, relying primarily on Blount to close out games. Belichek is a smart guy. 39 year old QB's don't stay healthy long if they throw it 50 times a game. I think you will see Blount get lots of second half carries down the stretch. I don't think that will happen week 1. Brady is pissed, they are playing the Browns and he needs to work on timing with some guys so I see a ton of passing this week, but as the season progresses, I see reliance more and more on Blount late in games.
need2know
Footballguy
I doubt foster, who barely has played, gets much run in this game. They need pass pro for brady. If Blount get alot less, it will be white that benefits
need2know
Footballguy
Tanner9919
Footballguy
The rationale that Brady is pissed and will be like the Hammer of Thor is exactly why I think you bet the under and take cle getting pts..
Pink elephant in the room is the NE D was blown up by BUF last week.expect the #1 rushing attack in the nfl, the Browns, to move the ball up and down the field. I doubt Brady comes out guns a'blazin'..BB will play this close the the vest.lots of dink n dunk and plenty of run plays..but Blount isnt going away.not happening. Hes their best offensive player..who has done more, edelman? No.amendola? No.
Pink elephant in the room is the NE D was blown up by BUF last week.expect the #1 rushing attack in the nfl, the Browns, to move the ball up and down the field. I doubt Brady comes out guns a'blazin'..BB will play this close the the vest.lots of dink n dunk and plenty of run plays..but Blount isnt going away.not happening. Hes their best offensive player..who has done more, edelman? No.amendola? No.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
They got blown up for allowing 16 points? Why do people insist on looming what happened the first 4 weeks? At this point, it's like they never happened.
If people want a better comparison, look at the first 4 weeks from last year when the Pats averaged 37 points a game. Brady put up 347 passing yards a game with 11 TD and 0 INT. The Pats averaged 92 rushing yards a game the first 4 games.
Even without Lewis, the Pats have more weapons now then they did then, adding Bennett, Hogan, Mitchell, and if he even does anything Foster.
If people want a better comparison, look at the first 4 weeks from last year when the Pats averaged 37 points a game. Brady put up 347 passing yards a game with 11 TD and 0 INT. The Pats averaged 92 rushing yards a game the first 4 games.
Even without Lewis, the Pats have more weapons now then they did then, adding Bennett, Hogan, Mitchell, and if he even does anything Foster.
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Jimbo Slice
Footballguy
Are we going with this injury is pretty much a non-issue?
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Plus it's the Pats, so if he's been practicing I would deploy without an injury consideration. I think the game script will be a slow start while Brady airs it out to begin the 2016 FU tour, and arc late with a lead and rush touches. Hard to forecast, but I could see RZ looks not going his way with Brady hitting anyone open in those situations. Low RB2/nice flex option IMO.
Chaka
Footballguy
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Sell, buy, or hold?
Leaning towards selling with the schedule after the bye.
Leaning towards selling with the schedule after the bye.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think he'll still have some games when he's invisible due to Belicheck's game planning, but as we get later in the season and the weather gets colder, I think we'll see Blount stay very active. The guy is balling right now.
shadrap
Footballguy
yes. If you can time it right Blount can be a season saver. Now who can time it right?
jtd13
Footballguy
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shadyridr
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
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Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Since Brady came back they have played Cin, Cle, Pit who have given up #11, #10, and #5 points to RBs. Next week they get the Bills who rank 17th in points allowed to RBs, but they were just run over by MIA.
After the bye, their schedule gets tougher: SEA (28), SF (3), NYJ (13), LA (18), BAL (31), DEN (12), and NYJ (13).
So if you're following the traditional thinking James White will be featured more...which looking at the snap counts White has out snapped Blount since Brady has been back:
vs CIN: White 38/ Blount 31
vs. CLE: White 39/ Blount 25
vs. PIT: White 25/ Blount 31
Blount has produced so far but it has been heavily TD dependent vs weak run defenses. It will take a strong offer to get Blount off my hands, but I think he's just as likely to have 4 points games as he is going to have 16 points the rest of the way.
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If you're a believer in the NE offense, the one thing with Blount is he will be the redzone back, and they will give him a chance to punch it in before messing around with the pass. He's basically a hedge on the NE offense: if you have Brady and anyone else, having Blount allows you to monopolize their redzone production.
Pittsburgh went mostly nickel and dime with their defenses today as an answer to Gronk/Bennett: not everyone will do this, but many will,and when they do blount will feast.
Pittsburgh went mostly nickel and dime with their defenses today as an answer to Gronk/Bennett: not everyone will do this, but many will,and when they do blount will feast.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Totally agree. New England rushes for something like 17 TDs every single year under Belichick. While I think they want to give Brady every opportunity to dominate, with the way things are shaping up there should be enough of the pie to give Blount the opportunity for maybe another 6-8 short yardage TDs over the rest of the season. And, despite what some people say, Blount has demonstrated the ability to bull over/shake'n'bake his way for some long TDs over the course of his career.
Blount has already matched his career high for rushing TDs (that is insane), he may just be having his career year.
