Lessons learned from 2013 - What are yours? (2 Viewers)

[JamesTheScot]

The frustrating one to me was Foles. I actually did have high expectations for him before the season, then lost faith after a few weeks. Lesson learned here - keep the faith with players you expect to do well.

Unless that person is Richardson, then your faith won't pay off.

Me too! I cut bait back in August with all the talk about how he looked terrible and how good Vick was looking. I lost in my main league semi-finals (week 15) to Foles starting for my opponent.

I'm kinda wondering where all these people were that were talking about how Vick was the man and that the competition between them was not close at all. Has anyone ever come forward and tried to explain how they missed?

I tend to think these hindsight threads are worthless. For every player you are right about, there is one you were wrong about. At the end of the day we are talking about unique individuals in a very complex system. Trying to draw any hard and fast conclusions that could be applied to other unique individual players is probably an exercise in futility.

 

[FF Ninja]

FF Ninja, thanks for starting this thread,and for taking the time for the write-up, good work!

the pieces were in place for Rivers having a bounce-back season, I think I mentioned somewhere that he'd do about 4200/32

same with Mathews,in a preseason thread I had him at 1200 rush yards

you knew Brady's 'fall' would happen , without weapons,you just couldn't see how he'd come close to the 40+ TD's people were projecting him for..

Gronk, along with Foster, Eli, were guys I put on a 'not with a 10-ft pole' thread..

I saw Trent Richardson coming a mile away - probably the only person on this board to do so - got ripped to shreds for it ( thanks Keith Lewis), I'm sure it was quite an unpopular opinion but I stuck to it..fantasyindex.com also had a nice breakdown of his 2012 stats,and it wasn't good..he was dead last in runs of 20+ yards or more, and second worst in terms of gaining 1 yard needed on 2nd/3rd and 1..stuff like that were glaring red flags that screamed 'not with a 10-ft pole'.

I had Edelman on a list of 'must-have' players, wasn't convinced Amendola would stay healthy,and when he would get hurt, it would be Edelman who would benefit the most..

didn't see David Wilson failing as badly as he did..I thought he'd be a top 5 RB, along with Spiller - my pick to be the #1 RB..

Ray Rice had been Mr Consistency, no one saw this coming..

someone mentioned the Giants - good answer, not one player on that team was worth a bag of peanuts.

don't know about you,but I nailed Moreno ..got him early on off of waivers, and rode the wave..

my league is pretty standard , NON ppr, 1pt per 10 rush and/or rec yards, 3-6pt tds depending on distance..Moreno scored 177.80 to Charles' 241.70..a meager 3.9ppg difference ..a top 5 pick was only 3.9 ppg better than a scrub waiver wire pick up..I got killed for this, too, mentioned it early on in another thread, that relative to ADP, Moreno's value > Charles' value. still stand by that..

I'd rather draft Megatron and get Moreno off waivers,than draft Charles and pick up Brian Hartline.

what I've learned is that you win by plucking guys off of the waiver wire,and that high-end Rb production can be found in later rounds..the key is to get Jimmy Graham and Witten , Demarius Thomas, Megatron, early on..they're so steady with production that it can't be overlooked..

Can't say that I nailed Moreno, but I did snag him purely as a late round speculative draft pick in the vast majority of my leagues. He was a target, but I also wasted a draft pick on Hillman in those leagues. I knew there would be points and I was betting against the rookie. Can't claim I saw Moreno finishing top 5 or anything. I wish I'd seen it a little clearer so I wouldn't have wasted a draft pick on Hillman.

I'm glad you brought up Demaryius... I predicted before the season that his piece of the pie would shrink due to Welker and therefore wasn't a great buy. I still think the logic was correct. People who did grab Thomas required the best passing season in the history of the NFL by a 37 year old for that draft pick to pan out. Thomas went from getting 148 targets out of 583 (25.4%) to 142 out of 659 (21.5%). Had Manning regressed as people often do with age and/or relied more heavily on the run game, that would've been a horrible misfire. Even keeping Thomas' catch and TD rate from the previous year and Manning throwing an equal number of passes as in 2012, the new target % would have dropped him to 125 targets which would yield about 80 rec 1224 8-9 TD which wouldn't have lived up to his ADP.

So I think Thomas is one of those things where people didn't analyze the situation well, but got bailed out by an unpredictable record breaking year by Manning.

Moving on...

The red flags you brought up for Trent - did anyone this year throw up similar red flags?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Thomas went from getting 148 targets out of 583 (25.4%) to 142 out of 659 (21.5%). Had Manning regressed as people often do with age and/or relied more heavily on the run game, that would've been a horrible misfire.

I'm not so sure. It could just be that as lead dog and one of the best WRs in the league Thomas is going to see about nine targets a game under most circumstances. Some guys get theirs first.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

The red flags you brought up for Trent - did anyone this year throw up similar red flags?

He may have finished RB14, but Le'Veon Bell averaged 3.52 YPC and, in 5 of his 13 games this season, failed to record a single carry of 10+ yards. Those numbers doesn't exactly scream "bigger and better things ahead" to me.

 

[FF Ninja]

Thomas went from getting 148 targets out of 583 (25.4%) to 142 out of 659 (21.5%). Had Manning regressed as people often do with age and/or relied more heavily on the run game, that would've been a horrible misfire.

I'm not so sure. It could just be that as lead dog and one of the best WRs in the league Thomas is going to see about nine targets a game under most circumstances. Some guys get theirs first.

I don't think that's the way it works. If Peyton only threw the ball 30 times you still think DT would get still get 9? I don't. Peyton is a smart guy. He's not going to feed the ball to one guy just because. He's going to spread it around with 30, 36, or 41 attempts. In this case, DT owners got lucky that Peyton threw the ball 13% more this year (and threw 76% more TDs). The people who said Welker would not eat into his slice of the pie were dead wrong. To be honest, I was wrong in regards to the Denver passing game, too. I thought Decker would lose a decent chunk of his slice of the pie. Decker's target % dropped from 20.9% to 20.6% - negligible.

 

[FF Ninja]

The red flags you brought up for Trent - did anyone this year throw up similar red flags?

He may have finished RB14, but Le'Veon Bell averaged 3.52 YPC and, in 5 of his 13 games this season, failed to record a single carry of 10+ yards. Those numbers doesn't exactly scream "bigger and better things ahead" to me.

I agree and I've taken a little flack for being reserved when it comes to my expectations for Bell. I must admit, that offensive line is horrible, though. He could improve in his second year, although I think people will be drafting him based on expectations of improvement and I'm sure I'll find someone I'm more confident in to draft in round 2 or 3.

 

[MattFancy]

The red flags you brought up for Trent - did anyone this year throw up similar red flags?

He may have finished RB14, but Le'Veon Bell averaged 3.52 YPC and, in 5 of his 13 games this season, failed to record a single carry of 10+ yards. Those numbers doesn't exactly scream "bigger and better things ahead" to me.

Wow good stuff there. Didn't realize his YPC was so crappy. Might have to downgrade him a smidge come next year.

 

[JuniorNB]

The red flags you brought up for Trent - did anyone this year throw up similar red flags?

He may have finished RB14, but Le'Veon Bell averaged 3.52 YPC and, in 5 of his 13 games this season, failed to record a single carry of 10+ yards. Those numbers doesn't exactly scream "bigger and better things ahead" to me.

Wow good stuff there. Didn't realize his YPC was so crappy. Might have to downgrade him a smidge come next year.

I wouldn't. They'll be getting their starting center back (Pouncy), who is one of the best in the league. One could see Bell getting better and better before our eyes toward the end of the season. I think he finishes as a top 5 back next year.

 

[habsfan]

Great stuff here.

My two biggest errors were the amount of patience I had with Rice and Cruz - waiting for them to "progress to the mean".

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The red flags you brought up for Trent - did anyone this year throw up similar red flags?

He may have finished RB14, but Le'Veon Bell averaged 3.52 YPC and, in 5 of his 13 games this season, failed to record a single carry of 10+ yards. Those numbers doesn't exactly scream "bigger and better things ahead" to me.

Bell was the youngest RB in the league, missed a chunk of preseason and the season's first three games and played behind an injury depleted o-line. He looked better than a 3.52 ypc back, showing quick feet and a nice size/speed combo. He looked better and better as the season progressed.

Ultimately you could be right but there seems to be just as many "green flags" as "red flags" for Bell. My thoughts are that he'll take the leap in year two that guys like Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy and Rashard Medenhall did.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The red flags you brought up for Trent - did anyone this year throw up similar red flags?

He may have finished RB14, but Le'Veon Bell averaged 3.52 YPC and, in 5 of his 13 games this season, failed to record a single carry of 10+ yards. Those numbers doesn't exactly scream "bigger and better things ahead" to me.

Wow good stuff there. Didn't realize his YPC was so crappy. Might have to downgrade him a smidge come next year.

I wouldn't. They'll be getting their starting center back (Pouncy), who is one of the best in the league. One could see Bell getting better and better before our eyes toward the end of the season. I think he finishes as a top 5 back next year.

my league doesnt give points for ypc.

While that stat can indicate an issue with talent, I believe that the steelers run game over all can improve and even the greats like tomlinson and emmitt have had sub 4.0 ypc in seasons.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Wow good stuff there. Didn't realize his YPC was so crappy. Might have to downgrade him a smidge come next year.

I wouldn't. They'll be getting their starting center back (Pouncy), who is one of the best in the league. One could see Bell getting better and better before our eyes toward the end of the season. I think he finishes as a top 5 back next year.

my league doesnt give points for ypc.

While that stat can indicate an issue with talent, I believe that the steelers run game over all can improve and even the greats like tomlinson and emmitt have had sub 4.0 ypc in seasons.

Bell looked to me coming out of college to be the classic "RB who does everything OK, but excels at nothing". Fairly or unfairly, those are not the kinds of guys who generally make bellcow RBs in today's NFL.

I didn't see a ton of him in action, but what I did see didn't do anything to disprove this notion to me. And, of course, his stats didn't either.

Do I think he's going to be the next T-Rich? Most likely not. And what few 2014 rankings I've seen to this point have him slotted somewhere in the mid-teens, which I think is reasonable, especially considering the guys in his vicinity (Rice, Ridley, Moreno, Spiller) have just as many question marks of their own. But if any sort of buzz starts building around the Steelers this summer and he starts bubbling up the rankings to the point where he's consistently going mid-2nd round or earlier, I'll be staying well away from him.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Pay attention to coaches. Charles, Forte, McCoy were no accident with Reid in KC, Trestman in Chicago and Kelly in Philly. These RBs should have rounded out the top 4 with AP.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Pay attention to coaches.

Draft the RB from the team on which Gary Kubiak lands as the OC. Or if Shanahan gets another chance. Or if someone recycles Cam Cameron.

 

[FF Ninja]

Pay attention to coaches.

Draft the RB from the team on which Gary Kubiak lands as the OC. Or if Shanahan gets another chance. Or if someone recycles Cam Cameron.

Not so fast. Kubes only helps good RBs become better. We had several years of RB wasteland in Houston. You may recall the Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Ron Dayne, and Wali Lundy years. If Kubiak has two crappy RBs, they'll split time and continue to be crappy. If he finds himself another stud, then enjoy the ride. I've heard his name mentioned in connection with Miami. If that's the case, I'm buying Tannehill next year. Kubiak knows how to milk the most out of his QB (with or without a run game and/or defense) and Tannehill will be great rolling out and throwing deep to Wallace. Not sure how I feel about the Miller/Thomas split. It could continue to be a split, or he could bring someone in. Offensive line will need to be improved before getting excited about any Miami RB.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Pay attention to coaches.

Draft the RB from the team on which Gary Kubiak lands as the OC. Or if Shanahan gets another chance. Or if someone recycles Cam Cameron.

Not so fast. Kubes only helps good RBs become better. We had several years of RB wasteland in Houston. You may recall the Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Ron Dayne, and Wali Lundy years. If Kubiak has two crappy RBs, they'll split time and continue to be crappy. If he finds himself another stud, then enjoy the ride. I've heard his name mentioned in connection with Miami. If that's the case, I'm buying Tannehill next year. Kubiak knows how to milk the most out of his QB (with or without a run game and/or defense) and Tannehill will be great rolling out and throwing deep to Wallace. Not sure how I feel about the Miller/Thomas split. It could continue to be a split, or he could bring someone in. Offensive line will need to be improved before getting excited about any Miami RB.

He also made crappy Steve Slaton very FF relevant, and even got decent total team rushing production out of Dayne / Lundy, considering the state the Texans were in when he arrived, as well as playing a role in quite a few dominant ground attacks (with varying levels of talent at RB) as an offensive coach in Denver. IMO he is one of the better coaches in the league as far as building a productive running game.

Now I agree that his RB isn't automatically going to be Arian Foster-like right out of the gate or anything -- but if he goes to Miami I'd guess the team totals will go up. Neither Miller nor Thomas is suited to be a workhorse at all IMO, but they'd both be more productive than they were in 2013. And if Miami drafted a decent rookie or brought in a decent FA, I'll definitely be taking a longer look than I would have if Ray Sherman had still been there.

That sentiment applies most places for me -- Kubiak would be able to milk more production out of most team's ground games IMO...

 

[Long Ball Larry]

The red flags you brought up for Trent - did anyone this year throw up similar red flags?

He may have finished RB14, but Le'Veon Bell averaged 3.52 YPC and, in 5 of his 13 games this season, failed to record a single carry of 10+ yards. Those numbers doesn't exactly scream "bigger and better things ahead" to me.

Wow good stuff there. Didn't realize his YPC was so crappy. Might have to downgrade him a smidge come next year.

One thing to consider is that Cleveland's o-line had a slightly positive grade last year in run blocking from PFF (10). Pittsburgh had a -39.7 this year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The red flags you brought up for Trent - did anyone this year throw up similar red flags?

He may have finished RB14, but Le'Veon Bell averaged 3.52 YPC and, in 5 of his 13 games this season, failed to record a single carry of 10+ yards. Those numbers doesn't exactly scream "bigger and better things ahead" to me.

Wow good stuff there. Didn't realize his YPC was so crappy. Might have to downgrade him a smidge come next year.

One thing to consider is that Cleveland's o-line had a slightly positive grade last year in run blocking from PFF (10). Pittsburgh had a -39.7 this year.

Pouncey, did he even play a down with Bell?

Pitt needs to get that line straightened out, quick, have a lot of good young talent there, DeCastro, Mike X, Pouncey

 

[Joe Bryant]

I know this is a knowledgeable group here. You guys reading this board in mid February are likely the best owners in your league.

Question for you - looking back at 2013, what are some lessons you learned?

Specific players?

Big picture general things?

Let's hear it. Thanks.

J

 

[Black]

I really was behind the curve and not sensitive to the coaching and scheme changes. I did not anticipate or appropriately value DEN and PHI players specifically.

I was slow to jump on talents like Alshon Jeffrey, Zac Stacy. I was still colored by negative camp reviews of Alshon from his rookie year, and after being so hot in mid-summer, Zac Stacy seemed to lose attention when reports said he couldn't win the starting job.

On the plus side, I was aggressive about rookies assuming perceived vacancies, or going to teams with not much competition, even when they had injuries or slow starts (Lacy, Keenan Allen).

I guess the sum total is: 1. watch and value coaching changes. 2. give rookies/young players a chance to improve. give their draft pedigree some creedance. give talent a chance to rise.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Excellent, Black. I'm starting to put even more value on coaching changes. (and actually more importantly - coordinator change) than ever. Thanks.

J

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Quaterbacks are overrated. And good luck predicting which one is going to throw for 55 TDs. Even next year. You could pick up one off the waiver wire in Nick Foles or Phillip Rivers and win your league.

Tight ends at the top are overrated. You could wait and pick up late a Cameron Jordan or Jordan Reed late because during summer they were still unknown sleeper picks. I think you have to take a shot on sleeper unknowns and wait on the TEs because the position is so deep and the value of a Gronk or Graham early just isn't what it used to be.

Running backs are way overrated. Last year around drafts, there were threads warning owners to take RB's early and often. That strategy pretty much backfired especially for T Richardson, Spiller, Rice owners, etc....

WRs are king. You get the most bang for your buck with stud WR's backed up with stud depth. I think I can build a good fantasy team with spare parts but give me stud WRs.

Recognize the stud defense. Early in the season, it wasn't so easy to see that KC was going to be that great, but for everyone that scooped them up off the wire, they paid huge dividends. I will be quicker to jump on defenses in my early spending FAAB budget than last year, because I still feel the sting of missing out.

 

[doowain]

Never fall into the "group think" that a draft class is weak. This past class was generally perceived as weak, especially when compared to recent drafts. No Dez Bryant. No LeSean McCoy. No Vernon Davis.

Fast forward nearly a year and we have IMO two Top 7 dynasty RBs (Gio and Lacy), 3 Top 15 dynasty WRs (Keenan, Cordarelle, DeAndre), 2 Top 10 dynasty TEs (Eifert and Reed), a handful of valuable starters (Stacy, Bell, Woods, T.Williams), and some very exciting prospects that could emerge (Tavon, Ertz, C.Michael, Ellington, Lattimore, Hunter, Ball, Knile, Da'Rick, Wheaton).

Trust your gut on guys and ignore the naysayers.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Omaha

 

[msudaisy26]

Don't fall into the trap of drafting a certain way. Just because this year was about the receiver doesn't mean next year won't be different. A couple of years ago it was all about the tight ends and quarterbacks. Last year you could say it was all about running backs. Go with your gut and draft BPA. You will do just fine.

 

[GeeYouknit]

Don't lose sight of future years. This was the 2nd year in a particular league and even though I have a great young team, I gave up lots of picks to grab some guys that screwed me out of a championship and put me a year behind in keeping my team together. Gave up strong picks/players for Welker/Andre Brown/Gates who I probably overpayed for all of them thinking they would give me that title. Pressures of repeating I guess.

 

[abbottjamesr]

My lessons learned from last season:

1. At the draft don't focus on the position as much as the value of the player. I had no intention of going RB-RB-RB in one draft and was thinking I would go WR-WR-WR, but when Charles fell to me and then Forte fell to me and Bush was available I couldn't pass. I didn't fell good about my team after the draft and was worried about my weakness at WR as I only took 1 in the first 6 rounds. But value is value regardless of the position and having 3 stud RB's let me make deals that I couldn't had other wise make.

2. At the draft take a lot of chances in rounds 7+. I took some guys in rounds 7-9 this year that are steady mid level producers and they were completely useless on my team all season. They were always just back ups with no value to play or trade. I would rather take high up side fliers on the whole back half of the draft and hope to hit 1-3 that can win the season for you ie. J. Gordon, J. Cameron, K. Allen, K. Moreno. Alot of people are going to say this is obvious, but I think we miss this at the draft esspecially with the rounds 7-10.

3. At the draft don't take a back up QB and let the WW be your back up

4. I agree with Raiderfan on trying to grab the stud defense early. I too missed KC, but lucked in CAR half way through the season.

5. Again QB is over rated even in a year where both the yards and TD record is broken. In start one QB leagues I can't see drafting any QB before the 7-8th rounds.

6. The teams are the most active in trying to put together trades that help both teams seem to have the best teams at the end of the season. Just an observation I noticed this year. There are people that can always seem to get one real lopsided trade done each year but they never can put all the pieces together because no one will deal with them afterwards. I was able to put together 5 trades this last year in a league were only 7 total trades were made. If you try to be fair and better both teams you will have an additional source of players that no one else will have witch is a huge advantage.

7. Don't get caught up in the hype on players to the point were you get blinders. At the same time keep an open mind to the possibilities of the some of the younger players that have shown flashes of talent. For every T. Richardson and D. Wilson there are A. Jeffery and J. Gordon's out on the boards being talked up and after 4 or 5 pages of discussion you would think they are the next Marshall Faulk or Jerry Rice. It's hard to sort through the hype and find out which are the real deal. Some times it just comes down to what you see watching them play and some times for me it comes down to who is cheaper to aquire.

 

[Joe Bryant]

With Black's comment about coaching changes - I'm pinning this thread as I think it's one of those super valuable pieces of info that could get buried. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702405

As you participate in it, please offer your insights as to what you think the changes will mean for the team and specifically, how the players will be affected by the change.

J

 

[Black]

Couple more adds:

Watch trends as the season progresses and react to them. Good example was 1) KC DEF and 2) Philip Rivers. Both were great pickups early in the season, but slowed late.

1. KC benefited greatly from easy early season matchups. You could have also picked up CAR about 6 games into the season to buffer that pickup, as their upward trend never quit.

2. Rivers was throwing it all over the yard early on, but once the DEF started playing better and Ry Mathews was able to stay on the field, there were many games where Rivers threw for about 100 yards late in the season. Again, observing that trend, you could have hedged with a Foles or Dalton or someone.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Spinoff topic for identifying trends. The toughest thing for fantasy owners is to identify when something exception is happening and determining whether it's an aberration or whether it's a real change.

Philip Rivers mentioned above is a great example. When we saw Rivers going wild, some said hang on, he'll come back to earth. Others said jump on him.

You guys that have had success identifying trends like that, let's hear your thoughts.

J

 

[Biabreakable]

When looking at how coaching changes may affect the team and player performance, try not to buy into coach speak too much. I wrongly didn't see a role for Ellington on the Cardinals, expecting them to use a good pass blocking RB almost exclusively, so not seeing a role for Ellington in the offense. But obviously they drafted him, so they must have liked something they saw.

There were other things I did not like about Ellington. For example some said he had poor vision and poor pass protection. To me that usually translates into not getting off of special teams for awhile. But I read too much into what the HC was saying RB would do in his offense, the poor offensive line and the high number of sacks they gave up in 2012 causing me overlook Ellington despite knowing Ellington had great athleticism and talent.

In a similar vein I spent a lot of time thinking about how Norv Turner's offense would be with Trent Richardson as the focal point.

Paying attention to coaching changes is important, but we may not have all of the information to know how the offense will function despite coaching history and statistical tendencies.

Speaking of Norv Turner I cannot see how the Vikings hiring him could be in any way bad for Adrian Peterson or Rudolph.

 

[Paulymaggs]

I learned that The Shark Pool is The Absolute BEST Fantasy Football Forum in the World.

 

[amicsta]

I happened to write an article on just this topic in December: http://jamsportz.wordpress.com/2013/12/27/five-things-i-learned-from-the-2013-fantasy-season/

 

[FF Ninja]

Offensive lines. They matter a lot. But a good OC can work around that a little bit. San Diego and Pit had a bad lines, but they did a good job getting the ball out of the QB's hands quickly. Miami and Arizona had bad offensive lines but they let their QB get crushed. However, the RBs suffered in all cases. Mathews was able to maintain value due to talent while Bell did it on receptions, but Lamar Miller and Mendenhall were total busts. Antonio Brown was able to put up a good season but at a relatively low YPR and only 8 TDs for 110 receptions, but Wallace and Fitzgerald had bad years. Bad offensive lines affect everybody.

DNDs are dumb. Don't write anybody off as a Do Not Draft player. Keep an eye out for players that get dismissed often in the shark pool Mathews was low hanging fruit for critics here and provided a real bargain to those that pay attention. Moreno was another guy that I targeted despite the negative publicity around here. I can't claim I drafted him with confidence, but in the cases of SD and DEN, somebody had to get the carries. I couldn't see it being 32 year old Brown or diminutive Woodhead and I couldn't see Fox giving the load to Ball, so I often took both Hillman and Moreno late. One was going to be a wasted pick, but you need somebody droppable anyway to pick up a hot free agent.

Wide receiver age. It's so silly. People here write off WRs at age 31 or 32, but look at the seasons Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Anquan Boldin have had recently.

It's already been said, but yeah, OC matters a lot. That's why I stayed away from Baltimore and bought in on San Diego. I know Balt had that super bowl run without him, but Cam Cameron did a lot of good things. He made Ronnie Brown a beast before he put Ray Rice on the map (don't listen to his owners whine about Cameron, he made Rice).

Bonus: play auction leagues. Some people think they are only for dynasty but they are so much better than snake drafts that you'll never want to go back.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Bonus: play auction leagues. Some people think they are only for dynasty but they are so much better than snake drafts that you'll never want to go back.

Thanks FFNinja. Great point. I'd say auction leagues are great for helping determine how you value players. It's like the "do not draft" thing. When you're prepping for an auction league, you realize most everyone is draftable. At some price. Doing auction values forces you to dig into that. Good point.

J

 

[Shutout]

By far, the biggest thing I have really come to understand over the past two years or so are two things (and one of them will sound absolutely counter to being active on sites like this, which I am, but it is the truth).

1. There is far more to IGNORE between February to July than there is to pay attention to.

2. Situation is at least 50% of the equation in FF.

On 1) There is SO much specualtion going on in the "off" months in FF that it is easy to pick up biases that grow like rolling snowballs and cloud your judgment. THis off-season, I completely ignored the downtalk on guys like Lacy and Allen, ignoring the nit-picking and the reasons why Denver wanted Ball vs. Lacy, etc, and I reset my baseline of knowledge at a checkpoint of "how did I rank these guys right at the end of the college season?". By doing that and ignoring the combine hype and the "this guy lacks this" stuff all year, my draft board for rookies was the strongest it ahs ever been. In short, I think it comes down to what they prove on the field supercedes all the stuff people push into our short-term memory.

On 2) As I was looking at coaching staff changes and which players were here or there (or had left here or there), and I attempted to be practical and logical about opportunitues, it became clear to me VERY early that guys like Moreno and Rivers and Antonio Brown and Jordan Cameron were guys that would be gold mines while guys like Mike Wallace and SJAX would be guys I would be looking to avoid.

Speaking mainly from a dynasty perspective of looking at things, I am coming off my most successful year ever by using these two concepts because I had great success last year and I definitely (at least as of today) I have put the type of players on my team that have increased the value of my teams a great deal.

 

[Pickle Rody]

my biggest lessons learned in 2013...again, because sometimes I need to re-learn things at my advanced age....

1. Do your homework and research all year long, regardless of the type of league you are in. Re-draft, keeper, dynasty, auction, IDP, etc...., it doesn't matter. I have learned this lesson numerous times in my fantasy "career". If you slack off in your research and preparation, in any season, your results will follow accordingly. If you do everything you can to stay on top of as much information as possible, you will be successful.

2004 through 2010, I did as much preparation all season long as I possibly could. Success followed each of those seasons. In 2011 and 2012 I slacked off during the off-seasons and so did all of my teams. I had gotten complacent and had a "I'm damn good at this game and I can afford to slack off a little" attitude. I couldn't have been more mistaken.

Side note about research: While FBG is my main focal point for fantasy football information, it is not the only place I look for it. Take the time to actually click on the links that fellow FBG'ers post in their comments here in the Shark Pool. Take the time to digest that information. If it doesn't suit you, or you think it's hogwash, fine, but at least be objective....which brings me to.....

2. Learn to be objective and listen to, or hear, what others are saying. Don't just toss out someone's opinion if it doesn't match yours initially. It takes a little effort to open up your ears, but the rewards are worth it.

3. After adhering to both of the above, when it comes down to a "toss-up" decision, go with your gut feeling. I have been taught, and learned, this lesson so many times in fantasy football it's ridiculous. I have countless examples of this lesson exploding off of my 17-year fantasy resume. Every single year I have had a gut feeling on a specific player(s) or situation(s). Most times I follow my gut, other times I don't. Either way, my gut has been right 95% of the time. I have missed out on players because I chose to ignore my gut feelings, other times I have looked the genius because I didn't ignore them. Please note, you must follow the first two lesson's above for the "gut feeling" decision to have any credence.

I'm pretty sure you were looking for more 'specific' 2013 lesson's Joe, but these were the one's that instantly popped into my head.

Rody

 

[KellysHeroes]

Never fall into the "group think" that a draft class is weak. This past class was generally perceived as weak, especially when compared to recent drafts. No Dez Bryant. No LeSean McCoy. No Vernon Davis.

Fast forward nearly a year and we have IMO two Top 7 dynasty RBs (Gio and Lacy), 3 Top 15 dynasty WRs (Keenan, Cordarelle, DeAndre), 2 Top 10 dynasty TEs (Eifert and Reed), a handful of valuable starters (Stacy, Bell, Woods, T.Williams), and some very exciting prospects that could emerge (Tavon, Ertz, C.Michael, Ellington, Lattimore, Hunter, Ball, Knile, Da'Rick, Wheaton).

Trust your gut on guys and ignore the naysayers.

I gotta agree with this, there was so many poster stating how this class was chuck full of avg talent. Then the NFL draft came and the 1st round prices went back to normal. So next time I hear that group thought I'm jumping on it.

Also, a lesson I never learn is hold onto my WW pickups.

 

[lardonastick]

my biggest lessons learned in 2013...again, because sometimes I need to re-learn things at my advanced age....

1. Do your homework and research all year long, regardless of the type of league you are in. Re-draft, keeper, dynasty, auction, IDP, etc...., it doesn't matter. I have learned this lesson numerous times in my fantasy "career". If you slack off in your research and preparation, in any season, your results will follow accordingly. If you do everything you can to stay on top of as much information as possible, you will be successful.

2004 through 2010, I did as much preparation all season long as I possibly could. Success followed each of those seasons. In 2011 and 2012 I slacked off during the off-seasons and so did all of my teams. I had gotten complacent and had a "I'm damn good at this game and I can afford to slack off a little" attitude. I couldn't have been more mistaken.

Side note about research: While FBG is my main focal point for fantasy football information, it is not the only place I look for it. Take the time to actually click on the links that fellow FBG'ers post in their comments here in the Shark Pool. Take the time to digest that information. If it doesn't suit you, or you think it's hogwash, fine, but at least be objective....which brings me to.....

2. Learn to be objective and listen to, or hear, what others are saying. Don't just toss out someone's opinion if it doesn't match yours initially. It takes a little effort to open up your ears, but the rewards are worth it.

3. After adhering to both of the above, when it comes down to a "toss-up" decision, go with your gut feeling. I have been taught, and learned, this lesson so many times in fantasy football it's ridiculous. I have countless examples of this lesson exploding off of my 17-year fantasy resume. Every single year I have had a gut feeling on a specific player(s) or situation(s). Most times I follow my gut, other times I don't. Either way, my gut has been right 95% of the time. I have missed out on players because I chose to ignore my gut feelings, other times I have looked the genius because I didn't ignore them. Please note, you must follow the first two lesson's above for the "gut feeling" decision to have any credence.

I'm pretty sure you were looking for more 'specific' 2013 lesson's Joe, but these were the one's that instantly popped into my head.

Rody

 

[ghostguy123]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

 

[KellysHeroes]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

Miller was one thing, but Wilson looked the part in his rookie season. Even if he was only scheduled to get 50 or so percent of the carries w/ Brown it looked like he still would of done well. And as soon as it looked like he was getting his confidence back he broke his neck.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

My lessons learned from last season:

2. At the draft take a lot of chances in rounds 7+. I took some guys in rounds 7-9 this year that are steady mid level producers and they were completely useless on my team all season. They were always just back ups with no value to play or trade. I would rather take high up side fliers on the whole back half of the draft and hope to hit 1-3 that can win the season for you ie. J. Gordon, J. Cameron, K. Allen, K. Moreno. Alot of people are going to say this is obvious, but I think we miss this at the draft esspecially with the rounds 7-10.

This is a great and often overlooked point. I'm not sure I'd draw the bar at round 7 - you haven't even filled out a starting lineup by then - but certainly in the double-digit rounds (or anyone going for, say, $3 or less in an auction), I'd much rather have a guy with a 10% chance of busting out all over the place and a 90% chance of falling on his face than one who's going to deliver predictable and consistent mediocrity. Unless your benches are extremely deep, you can get the latter any time you want off the WW.

Another point that goes hand-in-hand with the first one: Embrace churn. Forget about sunk costs - don't let guys having historically bad seasons or longshots that don't hit occupy valuable roster spots thinking maybe "next week is the week". You could have assembled a championship-caliber roster in 2013 off the WW alone! Foles, Stacy, Marvin Jones, Harry Douglas, J. Thomas, Reed, etc., etc. I missed out on Foles last year precisely because I thought Brady would turn it around "next week". Believe me, this becomes easier when you adhere to the first point - nobody was sitting on Geno Smith or Kenbrell Thompkins waiting for them to turn it around next week.

Next year I'm going to try strict adherence to what has always just been a rule-of-thumb for me in the past: if a guy doesn't hit your starting lineup 3 weeks in a row*, dump him. There's almost always a reason he's on your bench, and there's almost always better potential out there on the wire.

* - And before someone asks, "Does this mean you'd dump Gronk in Week 3 last year?": Please. You know what I'm talking about.

 

[Scoresman]

I do this every year, but this year kind of reinforced it. Don't take risky, mostly unproven guys early. Hello Doug Martin and TRich? Stick with the safe guys. Also, never say the words "It's too early to take a QB".

 

[msudaisy26]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

So you would have traded guys like McCoy, Rice, and Gore all who played only a little there rookie year but got hyped up in the offseason and been studs ever since? You win some you lose some. Miller could have been predicted by the bad coaching and the terrible line, anyone that says they thought Wilson and the Giants would fall on their faces like they did this year and Wilson would get a career threatening injury is just lying!

 

[Coeur de Lion]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

So you would have traded guys like McCoy, Rice, and Gore all who played only a little there rookie year but got hyped up in the offseason and been studs ever since? You win some you lose some. Miller could have been predicted by the bad coaching and the terrible line, anyone that says they thought Wilson and the Giants would fall on their faces like they did this year and Wilson would get a career threatening injury is just lying!

No one needed to predict the Giants' collapse or Wilson's injury to realize he was HUGELY over-valued heading into 2013. He was a late 1st round pick with maybe 50 career touches that was being anointed as a sure fire FF superstar. People were arguing for the guy as THE top dynasty RB -- when others are willing to pay like that for a complete unknown, it's time to sell, regardless of how much you like the player.

 

[ghostguy123]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

Miller was one thing, but Wilson looked the part in his rookie season. Even if he was only scheduled to get 50 or so percent of the carries w/ Brown it looked like he still would of done well. And as soon as it looked like he was getting his confidence back he broke his neck.

The things people were getting in trade for him, just remarkable.

Something I learned not just this past season but in general, when you can get a TON for a RB like that, do it

 

[ghostguy123]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

So you would have traded guys like McCoy, Rice, and Gore all who played only a little there rookie year but got hyped up in the offseason and been studs ever since? You win some you lose some. Miller could have been predicted by the bad coaching and the terrible line, anyone that says they thought Wilson and the Giants would fall on their faces like they did this year and Wilson would get a career threatening injury is just lying!

It doesnt matter if you think he will fall on their face or do well, when you can get a HAUL, get it.

And keep in mind, people were getting studs, proven studs, plus 1st rounders, for Wilson. The kind of return in trade that is worth it even if Wilson became a stud.

Wilson was NOT a stud. People just thought he would be one. People were trading for him as though he WAS a stud. So even if he did end up being a stud, the return was worth it. In this case, the return probably MADE some teams while the teams who dealt for him are likely in trouble.

 

[ghostguy123]

No one needed to predict the Giants' collapse or Wilson's injury to realize he was HUGELY over-valued heading into 2013. He was a late 1st round pick with maybe 50 career touches that was being anointed as a sure fire FF superstar. People were arguing for the guy as THE top dynasty RB -- when others are willing to pay like that for a complete unknown, it's time to sell, regardless of how much you like the player.

Pretty much echoes what I typed before I read this, yep.

When you can trade a guy at that top end stud value, when he has not remotely proven it, DO IT.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

Miller was one thing, but Wilson looked the part in his rookie season. Even if he was only scheduled to get 50 or so percent of the carries w/ Brown it looked like he still would of done well. And as soon as it looked like he was getting his confidence back he broke his neck.

The things people were getting in trade for him, just remarkable.

Something I learned not just this past season but in general, when you can get a TON for a RB like that, do it

You can make an absolute killing taking advantage of shiny new toy syndrome. Until someone actually does it on an NFL football field over a significant sample size, they're still just a prospect. And half of even the very best prospects don't live up to expectations for one reason or another. When someone is willing to pay at the upside price it's time to sell. Period.

 

[msudaisy26]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

So you would have traded guys like McCoy, Rice, and Gore all who played only a little there rookie year but got hyped up in the offseason and been studs ever since? You win some you lose some. Miller could have been predicted by the bad coaching and the terrible line, anyone that says they thought Wilson and the Giants would fall on their faces like they did this year and Wilson would get a career threatening injury is just lying!

It doesnt matter if you think he will fall on their face or do well, when you can get a HAUL, get it.

And keep in mind, people were getting studs, proven studs, plus 1st rounders, for Wilson. The kind of return in trade that is worth it even if Wilson became a stud.

Wilson was NOT a stud. People just thought he would be one. People were trading for him as though he WAS a stud. So even if he did end up being a stud, the return was worth it. In this case, the return probably MADE some teams while the teams who dealt for him are likely in trouble.

I am not arguing that if you could get studs but no one seen that coming. Would you have traded McCoy, Gore or Rice after their rookie years? I didn't play dynasty back then but I remember them having lots of hype.