Lessons learned from 2013 - What are yours? (1 Viewer)

[ghostguy123]

You can make an absolute killing taking advantage of shiny new toy syndrome. Until someone actually does it on an NFL football field over a significant sample size, they're still just a prospect. And half of even the very best prospects don't live up to expectations for one reason or another. When someone is willing to pay at the upside price it's time to sell. Period.

Really though, this is for RBs for the most part.

Also a good idea to sell on WRs who just scored a ton, but are guys who are system guys, guys that don't really create points for themselves. Examples that come to mind would be back when Collie scored a lot, Decker now, Welker (though he left one perfect fit and went to another), and I am sure there are other guys I just cant think of at the moment.

 

[ghostguy123]

I am not arguing that if you could get studs but no one seen that coming. Would you have traded McCoy, Gore or Rice after their rookie years? I didn't play dynasty back then but I remember them having lots of hype.

Yes. I think you are forgetting that you are getting a LOT back in return.

The things people got in return for WIlson were fine even if Wilson had scored 300 this year and was a consensus top 5-10 startup pick.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

So you would have traded guys like McCoy, Rice, and Gore all who played only a little there rookie year but got hyped up in the offseason and been studs ever since? You win some you lose some. Miller could have been predicted by the bad coaching and the terrible line, anyone that says they thought Wilson and the Giants would fall on their faces like they did this year and Wilson would get a career threatening injury is just lying!

It doesnt matter if you think he will fall on their face or do well, when you can get a HAUL, get it.

And keep in mind, people were getting studs, proven studs, plus 1st rounders, for Wilson. The kind of return in trade that is worth it even if Wilson became a stud.

Wilson was NOT a stud. People just thought he would be one. People were trading for him as though he WAS a stud. So even if he did end up being a stud, the return was worth it. In this case, the return probably MADE some teams while the teams who dealt for him are likely in trouble.

I am not arguing that if you could get studs but no one seen that coming. Would you have traded McCoy, Gore or Rice after their rookie years? I didn't play dynasty back then but I remember them having lots of hype.

For every McCoy or Rice there's a Kevin Smith or Julius Jones. So yes, if someone is willing to pay for the upside, you absolutely sell every time.

 

[menobrown]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

So you would have traded guys like McCoy, Rice, and Gore all who played only a little there rookie year but got hyped up in the offseason and been studs ever since? You win some you lose some. Miller could have been predicted by the bad coaching and the terrible line, anyone that says they thought Wilson and the Giants would fall on their faces like they did this year and Wilson would get a career threatening injury is just lying!

I'm in 100% agreement.

Miller was what I thought he was, a soft runner whose best chance was to put into space but the big issue is he plays for a staff that had just shown me the previous season with Reggie Bush they did not grasp the concept of tailoring their offense to fit their personnel.

Wilson had a train wreck of an opening week that derailed him early in the season and as soon as he began to show signs of life he was done. Had he not gotten hurt he'd have got plenty of chance to redeem himself later in the season and the entire narrative to his story might have been different. So like you I say if anyone predicted Wilson would suffer a potential career ending injury a few weeks into the season than step right up.

I also don't think Wilson was sold at his Apex of his "potential" value, at least not in leagues I'm in where it seemed to me his value was around that of a mid second rounder at best but on average close to a third rounder. Considering his youth if he displayed the kind of production some of us felt and health permitting still feel his value still had considerable room to grow.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

This is a repeat thread.

LINK

Sign of the times, I guess.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

You can make an absolute killing taking advantage of shiny new toy syndrome. Until someone actually does it on an NFL football field over a significant sample size, they're still just a prospect. And half of even the very best prospects don't live up to expectations for one reason or another. When someone is willing to pay at the upside price it's time to sell. Period.

Really though, this is for RBs for the most part.

Also a good idea to sell on WRs who just scored a ton, but are guys who are system guys, guys that don't really create points for themselves. Examples that come to mind would be back when Collie scored a lot, Decker now, Welker (though he left one perfect fit and went to another), and I am sure there are other guys I just cant think of at the moment.

Ehhh. People are paying top-10 prices for Cordarelle Patterson right now. If I can get that, I'm out. Generally though, yeah, WRs require more patience; the learning curve is usually steeper. Running is more instinctive.

 

[ghostguy123]

Ehhh. People are paying top-10 prices for Cordarelle Patterson right now. If I can get that, I'm out. Generally though, yeah, WRs require more patience; the learning curve is usually steeper. Running is more instinctive.

Yeah, if the unproven guys are going for young proven value, then yes, also a good time to sell.

Sometimes this will backfire, but in the longrun in a dynasty league I can't fathom the team being worse if you sell high consistently on unproven players.

Again, people, look at what you are GETTING in these deals. If you make two deals like this and one guy you trade ends up a super stud and the other ends up so-so, you come out way ahead because you are getting great value in return. Mostly semi-young PROVEN value at that.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

In an auction, don't waste $$$$$.

Yes, x, y, or z may indeed be a value, but if you're banking on getting some key player to your plans, do not spend until you have maximized every dollar on the players you want.

Even a few bucks on some mid-tier guy could cost you getting a player who is essential to your championship.

ETA: this thread did indeed have a lot of great info:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702714&hl=

 

[ghostguy123]

And about Wilson, again, no idea why it would matter if anyone predicted he would bust or not. The value people were getting for him put him at an early 2nd round startup pick, and in some cases (rare but happened) even higher.

Whether he busted or played great, the return on the trade could not be considered much of a loss.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Spinoff topic for identifying trends. The toughest thing for fantasy owners is to identify when something exception is happening and determining whether it's an aberration or whether it's a real change.

Philip Rivers mentioned above is a great example. When we saw Rivers going wild, some said hang on, he'll come back to earth. Others said jump on him.

You guys that have had success identifying trends like that, let's hear your thoughts.

J

I think that having an idea of which players are truly elite/top talents helps with this one. Guys who 'look' like other good or elite players get a lot more credit for breakout years and a lot more leeway on poor ones. No one's every right all the time, but being right 60-65% of the time on the tougher calls can give you an edge.

Re: Rivers specifically... every way I've come up with to try and ID good QBs (pre-draft, early career metrics, peak seasons) had Rivers on the list. Which would have made it really unusual for him to crash and burn at 30 absent a major injury. And if you dug into his 2011/2012 stats he really wasn't as bad as perceived. So I think he's someone that you could have been open minded about seeing a possible rebound in 2013 which would have had you completely on board after those first few weeks.

The other big lesson is that there's almost no such thing as a bad rookie RB in dynasty. Almost all of them carry their value for at least a year. And because of the way VBD stacks up across positions in start-2 RB leagues even non-elite guys have real value. I struggle to value them correctly because I'm pretty strictly buy-and-hold and prefer swinging for the fences with guys (I don't draft for trade value and focus on players I like as potential #1s at their positions), but I'd like to give average RB talents in good situations more credit going forward.

 

[menobrown]

I really did not learn much this season. I did not have a good fantasy season either so I'm not saying that from a bravado angle either. I just think for every absolute rule people think they might have learned I can offer a counter argument.

I would say the coaching and scheme related stuff some have mentioned is huge but fortunately for me that is something I learned to pay great attention to many years ago so I can't list that as something I learned this past season. Even with this in mind you can sometimes be steered wrong by this information. See Biabreakables post #13 as I felt the same way about Arians negative impact on Ellington who seemed like a space back in an offense for a coach that does not throw to backs much and the Turner with TRICH seemed like a great marriage. I still think more often than not following coaching staff trends is the way to go but it's not foolproof by any means. Good coaches adjust their schemes.

The problem I have with my internal decision making is for every thing I could list I "learned" I could offer a counter. Some examples:

*Watching Denver early in the season I was thinking stuff like if you don't have a key member of the Broncos on your team you might find it hard to compete. Taken a step further if you don't have key pieces of big time juggernaut offense you might have a hard time. This goes along with strategy I've often heard espoused from people who say they don't pick players on bad teams, bad offenses, bad QB's, etc, etc. This kind of thinking leaves you not drafting a guy like Josh Gordon.

*Early round stud RB's under perform more than early round stud WR's. I believe that statement to be true but the rub is WR's are deep for days and RB's thin out. I could cite specific examples were I ignored WR's for most of early rounds and still ended up with strong WR's, conversely I can cite many examples where I did not pick a RB early and struggled mightily all season to fill out the position. So again I can't just absolutely conclude that picking a stud RB or two early is a mistake. It's just like any other year, it's just key to pick the right guys.

*This is more dynasty related but relates to being patient with players. I hate to say but I've cut some guys who ended up being studs in dynasty and it's painful. So easy lesson to conclude is "be more patient". I've also held onto guys like Rob Housler an inordinate amount of time because I believed in the talent. There is no absolute rule that will save you from cutting future studs or protect you from killing a roster spot holding onto guys to long. You just have to make the right decisions and that's nothing that this season taught me.

 

[cloppbeast]

Players get injured a lot. Depth is underrated.

 

[squistion]

Players get injured a lot. Depth is underrated.

Not if you got it.

 

[Eminence]

Good to hear from you Joe,

Just like real Football, in Fantasy Football you need to develop a philosophy for yourself and your team.

In my opinion, every fantasy team starts with the Quarterback. Often the highest scoring player in the entire league. People say wait on him but when you draft Drew Brees and he throws for 5 Touchdown and wins your week, you'll be glad you didn't.

You want to ride magical seasons by the Brady's, Manning's, and Brees' of the world. They can serve you a Championship on a silver platter.

I think Aaron Rodgers becomes an afterthought and falls to the 2nd Round this year. I take him there in a heart beat, but you have to have a plan. Make a list of guys you want at Quarterback and would be upset if you didn't get one of them. Here's my list, I would be upset if I didn't rope at least one of these guys in each of my drafts:

Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Tom Brady

After that, there's a significant dropoff and you'll want to grab a 2nd tier QB:

Colin Kaepernick
Matt Ryan
Cam Newton
Andrew Luck
RG3

...and run him in a committee with whichever of these guys falls (matchup guys):

Nick Foles
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer

If you have a running Quarterback, you definitely want a decent backup.

-

At the RB position, the 2nd most important position imo it's important to snag a stud with proven production.

Adrian Peterson
LeSean McCoy
Jamaal Charles
Marshawn Lynch
Chris Johnson
Matt Forte
Frank

Avoid glamour picks that aren't proven:

David Wilson
Doug Martin
CJ Spiller
Darren McFadden
Lamar Miller
Zac Stacy
Etc.

Every year I see people grab for shiny new toys that bust while leaving reliable players like Frank Gore and Chris Johnson on the board. Insisting the wheels are going to fall off (they never do).

Grab yourself a few Rookies (Sophomore Players) and you should be set. Last year, Lacy and Bell provided HUGE value. I drafted:

1st: Veteran RB
2nd: WR w/ upside (Dez, Thomas)
3rd: Value Play (WR/RB)
4th: Quarterback
5th: Rookie RB

...and it turned out great, their undervalued because their unknown but a Rookie back is a great shortcut to a prosperous Fantasy Season.

I don't recommend RB/RB but rather RB in the first and gobbling up Sophomore Players / Rookies in later rounds.

I am personally targeting Peterson, McCoy, Lacy, Bernard, Johnson, and Gore in my leagues. They should all be decent value.

WR is the deepest position nowadays. Everyone throws for 4,000 yards nowadays. Plenty of options but there are a few elite guys I would be upset not to land at least one of:

Calvin Johnson
Demaryius Thomas
Julio Jones
AJ Green
Josh Gordon
Brandon Marshall

Beyond that, I enjoy my veteran receivers. After watching Donald Drive and Hines Ward produce for years I am bullish about Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne. They are guys who are going to get be discounted that I think are shoo-in for solid production. At that same addage, there are guys who are probably going to produce similarily but will be ranked very far apart:

Torrey Smith
TY Hilton
Michael Floyd
Terrance Wiliams

I could see all three of these guys finishing with similar statlines but I am sure Hilton will be drafted much higher than he's really worth. Jordy Nelson is a WR1 in disguise, if I could get him as my WR1 I don't think it would be terrible assuming I loaded up on other positions. Same with Antonio Brown.

The main focus on the WR position would be to lap up receivers in good offenses: Denver, Green Bay, Atlanta, etc. Two guys that I absolutely want on my teams are:

Julio Jones
Doug Baldwin

Julio Jones is going to rebound just fine yet will probably be drafted a smidge below where he's going to produce. Last year my strategy was to draft both Demaryius Thomas and Julio Jones and I would suggest the same mentality this year. It might even present better value this year as people steer away from Julio Jones. Doug Baldwin is a hidden gem and a WR3 in disguise, I plugged him in my lineup down the stretch and all he did was produce. He shouldn't warrant a very high pick either.

Somebody in Detroit is probably going to step up; Cordarrelle Patterson will probably see a bump in production.


The TE position is all Jimmy Graham, he's not going to bust if you take him so in that aspect it's a good pick. I personally won't end up with him on many teams but if the value is there you have to take him. I tend to avoid the "flavor of the week" Tight Ends and I see Julius Thomas as just that. I think Martellus Bennett will give you comparable production at a fraction of the price. If I take a Tight End somewhat early, it's going to be Bennett or Witten; crafty veterans.

Beyond that, you can usual wait on Tight Ends are grab one that falls late. Guys that I'll target are:


Ladarius Green
Jordan Reed
Zach Ertz
Tyler Eifert


None of those guys will command a very high draft pick but have a pretty good chance of breaking out. Tight End is a position I place a very low priority on. I want Gronk because he presents value but he's promptly in Darren McFadden territory. He'll put up numbers when he's healthy, if you draft him expect to not having him come playoff time.


Finally, there's Defense. The obvious move is Seattle but someone will reach for them in the 8th and that's something I don't believe in doing. Carolina, San Francisco, and Kansas City will be the next off the board. But if you want the Shark Move, you've gotta go Arizona Cardinals...


Kickers, honestly you can pick a new one week to week and see no discernible difference. Obviously a player with range that plays in a high-powered offense is what you're looking for.

 

[ClownDogs]

In a 16 team full IDP leauge, if you are a contender and a CB or a DT or a unknown safety have a good first half of the season and the ones on your roster don't, DO NOT be afraid to overpay to acquire them and improve your roster. (acquired Jason Hatcher and Barry Church and they helped me to a title)

 

[ghostguy123]

I learned that many owners do not use any form of logic at the trade table.

 

[Donnybrook]

Don't be afraid to against the grain. I traded down (on the cheap) from the 1.01 to the 1.06 to draft Andrew Luck in my dynasty IDP. No regrets.

My regret was draft going with the rankings and drafting Chris Johnson over Matt Forte with my next pick.

Know your rules. I got a little to excited when I heard that Patrick Peterson was going to play offensive snaps in addition to returning kicks. I traded up for him before I realized that even if he scored on offense the points would not count in my league. Peterson is a reminder that decent NFL players are not always good fantasy players. The only reason he is on my roster is because I overpaid to get him.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I've noticed over the years that the trades I make in the offseason and near the trade deadline are usually my best, and the ones I make based on "team needs" at other points in the season are usually my worst.

The lesson I'm taking from that is that if I think my team has a weakness early in the season, I need to fight the urge to work the phones nonstop until the problem is "fixed," and especially fight the urge to overpay with "expendable" assets to close a deal. The assets I'm looking to trade for that upgrade are rarely as expendable as I think they are, and the players who other owners are willing to move are rarely the solution I hope they will be.

Defenses adapt to what offenses are doing. Offensive strategies change based on what's working and who is healthy. Injuries affect lineups (both real and fantasy), and players fade after hot starts/get hot after slow starts.

As long as my team is staying in the hunt to make the playoffs, I'm going to live with its flaws while working the WW hard right up until a week before the deadline or so to address them. If they aren't addressed at that point, then it is time to start exploring trades.

At that point I've given myself a chance to fix the problem for free, and my team depth has given me a chance to weather the bye weeks and inevitable injuries. I also have as much information on my team needs as I am going to get. I know what teams are sellers (and even more importantly, they know it as well), I know what defenses I want my players playing against during the playoffs, and I know what teams/players have the best chances of making something happen when I truly need it to.

 

[Eminence]

It would be very foolish to not draft at least one Rookie Runningback every season, regardless. There's always multiple hits. Worst case scenario you hit on a mediocre talent that gets a bunch of carries on the virtue that they were 1st - 2nd Rounders.

Bell is a good pick as well, it looks like Pittsburgh is content letting this guy be their bellcow. He showed a lot of heart on the play in which he got the concussion. Really not fair that that didn't count for a Touchdown. Kid's helmet only flew off because he was trying his heart out to make a play.

Put his body on the line, showing toughness, he gets it in but his helmet flys off so you don't give him a touchdown? I became a bit saddened by the dynamic.

 

[Eminence]

I think EJ Manuel has the ability to beat up on crappy Offenses. He can pull off a decent Cam Newton impression, I'm sure. Buffalo would be smart to give this guy a true #1 to throw to. Mike Evans, welcome to the Bills.

Would be instant production for both players, in my opinion.

 

[Eminence]

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/mockdrafts

Also, this site is great. It's helped me in a few drafts approximate player value. Every draft is different though, I had Chris Johnson fall to the 4th - 5th Round in a league last year.

 

[FUBAR]

Agreed on trading picks/prospects for proven talent usually works. Taken further, I'm rebuilding in one league and made mostly trades of older vets having good years, like peyton, for injured guys like cobb and crabtree. Most rebuilders go after picks, which are usually overvalued.

With late round/cheap fliers, look to take receivers with good qbs instead of guys who will more likely see the field but not do much. Boykin over donnie avery, for example. I'll also take 2nd year receivers who showed just a little over rookies outside the elite. Most owners are too impatient.

Combine the two if you can. In wsl, I grabbed austin (though you could question his qb), stills, rogers, and patton for these reasons.

 

[Joe Bryant]

my biggest lessons learned in 2013...again, because sometimes I need to re-learn things at my advanced age....

1. Do your homework and research all year long, regardless of the type of league you are in. Re-draft, keeper, dynasty, auction, IDP, etc...., it doesn't matter. I have learned this lesson numerous times in my fantasy "career". If you slack off in your research and preparation, in any season, your results will follow accordingly. If you do everything you can to stay on top of as much information as possible, you will be successful.

2004 through 2010, I did as much preparation all season long as I possibly could. Success followed each of those seasons. In 2011 and 2012 I slacked off during the off-seasons and so did all of my teams. I had gotten complacent and had a "I'm damn good at this game and I can afford to slack off a little" attitude. I couldn't have been more mistaken.

Side note about research: While FBG is my main focal point for fantasy football information, it is not the only place I look for it. Take the time to actually click on the links that fellow FBG'ers post in their comments here in the Shark Pool. Take the time to digest that information. If it doesn't suit you, or you think it's hogwash, fine, but at least be objective....which brings me to.....

2. Learn to be objective and listen to, or hear, what others are saying. Don't just toss out someone's opinion if it doesn't match yours initially. It takes a little effort to open up your ears, but the rewards are worth it.

3. After adhering to both of the above, when it comes down to a "toss-up" decision, go with your gut feeling. I have been taught, and learned, this lesson so many times in fantasy football it's ridiculous. I have countless examples of this lesson exploding off of my 17-year fantasy resume. Every single year I have had a gut feeling on a specific player(s) or situation(s). Most times I follow my gut, other times I don't. Either way, my gut has been right 95% of the time. I have missed out on players because I chose to ignore my gut feelings, other times I have looked the genius because I didn't ignore them. Please note, you must follow the first two lesson's above for the "gut feeling" decision to have any credence.

I'm pretty sure you were looking for more 'specific' 2013 lesson's Joe, but these were the one's that instantly popped into my head.

Rody

Thanks Rody,

No, I was looking for specific or general stuff. General stuff actually has more value probably. Great post - thanks.

J

 

[Joe Bryant]

I really did not learn much this season. I did not have a good fantasy season either so I'm not saying that from a bravado angle either. I just think for every absolute rule people think they might have learned I can offer a counter argument.

I would say the coaching and scheme related stuff some have mentioned is huge but fortunately for me that is something I learned to pay great attention to many years ago so I can't list that as something I learned this past season. Even with this in mind you can sometimes be steered wrong by this information. See Biabreakables post #13 as I felt the same way about Arians negative impact on Ellington who seemed like a space back in an offense for a coach that does not throw to backs much and the Turner with TRICH seemed like a great marriage. I still think more often than not following coaching staff trends is the way to go but it's not foolproof by any means. Good coaches adjust their schemes.

The problem I have with my internal decision making is for every thing I could list I "learned" I could offer a counter. Some examples:

*Watching Denver early in the season I was thinking stuff like if you don't have a key member of the Broncos on your team you might find it hard to compete. Taken a step further if you don't have key pieces of big time juggernaut offense you might have a hard time. This goes along with strategy I've often heard espoused from people who say they don't pick players on bad teams, bad offenses, bad QB's, etc, etc. This kind of thinking leaves you not drafting a guy like Josh Gordon.

*Early round stud RB's under perform more than early round stud WR's. I believe that statement to be true but the rub is WR's are deep for days and RB's thin out. I could cite specific examples were I ignored WR's for most of early rounds and still ended up with strong WR's, conversely I can cite many examples where I did not pick a RB early and struggled mightily all season to fill out the position. So again I can't just absolutely conclude that picking a stud RB or two early is a mistake. It's just like any other year, it's just key to pick the right guys.

*This is more dynasty related but relates to being patient with players. I hate to say but I've cut some guys who ended up being studs in dynasty and it's painful. So easy lesson to conclude is "be more patient". I've also held onto guys like Rob Housler an inordinate amount of time because I believed in the talent. There is no absolute rule that will save you from cutting future studs or protect you from killing a roster spot holding onto guys to long. You just have to make the right decisions and that's nothing that this season taught me.

Thanks Meno. I think what you're saying is one reason we keep coming back to this game. It's tough to really master. We can get better at it but there are years that just don't go our way. In some ways, I think that adds to the fun in making it tough. But it can sure be frustrating when it doesn't go the way you want. With you there.

J

 

[Joe Bryant]

Spinoff topic for identifying trends. The toughest thing for fantasy owners is to identify when something exception is happening and determining whether it's an aberration or whether it's a real change.

Philip Rivers mentioned above is a great example. When we saw Rivers going wild, some said hang on, he'll come back to earth. Others said jump on him.

You guys that have had success identifying trends like that, let's hear your thoughts.

J

I think that having an idea of which players are truly elite/top talents helps with this one. Guys who 'look' like other good or elite players get a lot more credit for breakout years and a lot more leeway on poor ones. No one's every right all the time, but being right 60-65% of the time on the tougher calls can give you an edge.

Re: Rivers specifically... every way I've come up with to try and ID good QBs (pre-draft, early career metrics, peak seasons) had Rivers on the list. Which would have made it really unusual for him to crash and burn at 30 absent a major injury. And if you dug into his 2011/2012 stats he really wasn't as bad as perceived. So I think he's someone that you could have been open minded about seeing a possible rebound in 2013 which would have had you completely on board after those first few weeks.

The other big lesson is that there's almost no such thing as a bad rookie RB in dynasty. Almost all of them carry their value for at least a year. And because of the way VBD stacks up across positions in start-2 RB leagues even non-elite guys have real value. I struggle to value them correctly because I'm pretty strictly buy-and-hold and prefer swinging for the fences with guys (I don't draft for trade value and focus on players I like as potential #1s at their positions), but I'd like to give average RB talents in good situations more credit going forward.

Ah, that's a great point wdcrob. Not so much jumping on the new guy too quickly but not giving up on the old guy. Great point.

J

 

[Joe Bryant]

In an auction, don't waste $$$$$.

Yes, x, y, or z may indeed be a value, but if you're banking on getting some key player to your plans, do not spend until you have maximized every dollar on the players you want.

Even a few bucks on some mid-tier guy could cost you getting a player who is essential to your championship.

ETA: this thread did indeed have a lot of great info:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702714&hl=

Thanks Saints. Let me see if I can merge these. Agreed there is great info there.

J

 

[Joe Bryant]

Ok - I think this worked. These two threads should be one big one. Great job Guys. Keep it rolling.

J

 

[fightingillini]

2. Learn to be objective and listen to, or hear, what others are saying. Don't just toss out someone's opinion if it doesn't match yours initially. It takes a little effort to open up your ears, but the rewards are worth it.

I agree with this 100% in spades. Many in FF get into a rut where they just see things from their point of view. Being on this message board gives me a lot of perspective as to what others are thinking, and there are times where they have influenced me to actually change my position on a player.

I will also throw out another......learn to take the time to read the local beat writers. They are usually in the know, and a lot of times will have great insight as to offensive philosophy (if the coaching staff is different than last year), as well as which younger players could potentially break out.

Know which guys here that post on the messageboard are like the "local beat writers". In fact, I think it's a great idea to have a pinned thread where we can have a list of posters who are "in the know" for a certain team, so if you have a question about some team, you can contact one of those guys on the list via PM.

You don't know everything, so you might as well take advantage of what we have, which is the best message board in the fantasy football community.

 

[Eminence]

Never underestimate a good matchup. A crappy defense can turn an average player into a star.

 

[ol blues]

With the constant admonition that this year's lessons may be...and usually are...tomorrow's follies, the re affirmations that I had this season for redraft leagues follow.

1.QB is deep and getting deeper. So why go there with early picks?

2. Opportunity in a quality offense yields elite production for pedestrian players. Who are the future Moreno's and Foles?

3. When you find talent pursue it even if the opportunity appears blocked or frustrated: Gordon, Allen, Gio.

4. Fundamental flaws in basic game skills are players to avoid with premium picks: Wilson, Miller.

5. The supposed depth at WR is an illusion. 12-15 WRs per season average 10 points/game in standard scoring and you need at least 2 of them.

6. RB2s are available every year at least into round 5-6 if you choose wisely.

7. Consider the source: the scribe invested in the view that Ball starts may not report the warning signs that is untrue.

8. Rookies are always misvalued. Too high and too low, but usually too low because we prefer the safety of what we have observed over the uncertainty of the novel. In a premium year for talent take a reasonable flyer or 3 on rookies.

9. ALWAYS draft the best available player even if it's your 6th consecutive RB. Balance your team by trade and waivers.

10. ALWAYS have fun. It's a game.

 

[Biabreakable]

When players get hyped up out of nowhere, like Wilson and lamar miller, trade them.

They were hyped up like they were studs, yet had done literally nothing, and probably would have gotten you a nice haul in trade.

So you would have traded guys like McCoy, Rice, and Gore all who played only a little there rookie year but got hyped up in the offseason and been studs ever since? You win some you lose some. Miller could have been predicted by the bad coaching and the terrible line, anyone that says they thought Wilson and the Giants would fall on their faces like they did this year and Wilson would get a career threatening injury is just lying!

I am going to have to disagree with you here, and I am not lying, you can see the nightmare Wilson thread for evidence (although would be a pain to isolate the posts).

The Giants had issues with their offensive line that were serious concerns, similar concerns or worse than the Dolphins. Tiki Barber was talking about this in the preseason, that the current Giants line was only capable of blocking for a power running scheme, which is not Wilson's strength. Tiki Barber was saying that the line did not support Wilson's play style.

I also wanted to add that I recall talking with netnalp about the offensive line. I did not really like Pugh as a rookie prospect, and expect most rookies not make a significant impact right away. Every time I talked to net about Snee being a strength inside, he would mention how Snee and other veterans were injured (pre-season) and he did not seem optimistic about Snee's recovery for this season or even long term. There are issues with the Giants offensive line right now and that is an area they badly need upgrades before expecting much for their top skill position players. The defense is pretty poor at LB right now as well.

Furthermore if you listened to the Giants RB coach, he was not giving Wilson the green light as the starter at all. Everything he said indicated that they wanted to see more development from Wilson in pass protection and that they would employ some form of RBBC. Many Wilson owners and people who liked him denied this. I was arguing about this with Giant's fans and others. They never convinced me that Wilson would be the main RB and the RB coach certainly was not saying that he would be either.

I do partially agree with your other point that I think it is important to be ahead of the curve, especially in dynasty formats, mainly because once a player does break out the price to acquire such a player will be untouchable to too expensive. In the case of Wilson, the price had outpaced his production, to be ahead of the curve means you are buying for value, not paying premium on a player who is not yet proven. For people buying Wilson at top 3 round value, that was already more cost than he had proven to be worth, by those pushing the price anticipating a break out. If you paid that price for Ray Rice or McCoy (before they broke out, neither of them did right away) you would have been overpaying for them if you paid what many were asking for Wilson at that time. You would have broken even on those guys (they broke out) but to me that is not being ahead of the curve, that is buying high not low, without proof to justify the price.

 

[ol blues]

Never underestimate a good matchup. A crappy defense can turn an average player into a star.

Unless you're playing Arizona with the Lions' defense in 2012 because a Schwartz team will always show its lack of discipline?

 

[FUBAR]

With the constant admonition that this year's lessons may be...and usually are...tomorrow's follies, the re affirmations that I had this season for redraft leagues follow.

1.QB is deep and getting deeper. So why go there with early picks?

2. Opportunity in a quality offense yields elite production for pedestrian players. Who are the future Moreno's and Foles?

3. When you find talent pursue it even if the opportunity appears blocked or frustrated: Gordon, Allen, Gio.

4. Fundamental flaws in basic game skills are players to avoid with premium picks: Wilson, Miller.

5. The supposed depth at WR is an illusion. 12-15 WRs per season average 10 points/game in standard scoring and you need at least 2 of them.

6. RB2s are available every year at least into round 5-6 if you choose wisely.

7. Consider the source: the scribe invested in the view that Ball starts may not report the warning signs that is untrue.

8. Rookies are always misvalued. Too high and too low, but usually too low because we prefer the safety of what we have observed over the uncertainty of the novel. In a premium year for talent take a reasonable flyer or 3 on rookies.

9. ALWAYS draft the best available player even if it's your 6th consecutive RB. Balance your team by trade and waivers.

10. ALWAYS have fun. It's a game.

2. Concur on the point, but what makes you think Foles is pedestrian?

5. Maybe. 8 points separated the #1 WR from the #24 (PPR) Once you get past the top 10, 8 points separated the #11 WR from #61. It's not so much depth of the elite, it's depth after the elite.

8. In what formats? 3 rookies can be a lot on a small roster and if the value isn't there, why reach?

9. Again, depends on the format.

Biggest lesson IMO which most appear to overlook is format is perhaps the most important thing when valuing players.

 

[beto]

I do this every year, but this year kind of reinforced it. Don't take risky, mostly unproven guys early. Hello Doug Martin and TRich? Stick with the safe guys. Also, never say the words "It's too early to take a QB".

You mean guys like Foster and Rice?

 

[ghostguy123]

I do this every year, but this year kind of reinforced it. Don't take risky, mostly unproven guys early. Hello Doug Martin and TRich? Stick with the safe guys. Also, never say the words "It's too early to take a QB".

You mean guys like Foster and Rice?

I definitely know what he means. A lot of people actually felt Foster and RIce were risky because of their workloads over the past 3-4 years.

But I am of the opinion that "you cant win your league with your first round pick, but you can lose it".

Problem is, at least from what I have seen, the league winners for the most part drafted a RB in the 1st round. They are obviously the most volatile position to draft though. Kind of a catch 22.

I can see the appeal of taking guys like Calvin, Graham, Dez, Aj Green in the first over a RB. RBs get hurt more and their stats fluctuate more, while the top WRs and a guy like graham have a much higher chance of doing what they normally do.

I would still rather take a RB in the first round though (unless picking back part of the round, in which case a couple stud WRs is pretty appealing).

I think this coming season is a good year to skip RB in the first (unless you got a top pick for Charles/Mccoy............)becuase we got a lot of the stud RBs aging, like AP, Lynch, Rice, Foster............

I think many of those guys final numbers will be close to the RBs who finish in the 15-20 range than in years past.

 

[Scoresman]

I do this every year, but this year kind of reinforced it. Don't take risky, mostly unproven guys early. Hello Doug Martin and TRich? Stick with the safe guys. Also, never say the words "It's too early to take a QB".

You mean guys like Foster and Rice?

foster had age/ben tate concerns and rice had bernard pierce concerns. safe early guys this year were Charles, lynch, Calvin, Peterson, Manning, and a few more. You were much better off last year taking one of those safe guys than you were taking a chance on a relatively unproven high ceiling guy.

 

[Spike]

With the constant admonition that this year's lessons may be...and usually are...tomorrow's follies, the re affirmations that I had this season for redraft leagues follow.

1.QB is deep and getting deeper. So why go there with early picks?

2. Opportunity in a quality offense yields elite production for pedestrian players. Who are the future Moreno's and Foles?

3. When you find talent pursue it even if the opportunity appears blocked or frustrated: Gordon, Allen, Gio.

4. Fundamental flaws in basic game skills are players to avoid with premium picks: Wilson, Miller.

5. The supposed depth at WR is an illusion. 12-15 WRs per season average 10 points/game in standard scoring and you need at least 2 of them.

6. RB2s are available every year at least into round 5-6 if you choose wisely.

7. Consider the source: the scribe invested in the view that Ball starts may not report the warning signs that is untrue.

8. Rookies are always misvalued. Too high and too low, but usually too low because we prefer the safety of what we have observed over the uncertainty of the novel. In a premium year for talent take a reasonable flyer or 3 on rookies.

9. ALWAYS draft the best available player even if it's your 6th consecutive RB. Balance your team by trade and waivers.

10. ALWAYS have fun. It's a game.

Have to disagree with this. So potentially enter the 6th round with 5RBs? No.

 

[flranger]

That I waited far too long to exit the game. First year off, and it is such a relief. Feel like I gave myself back over 100 hours.

 

[beto]

That I waited far too long to exit the game. First year off, and it is such a relief. Feel like I gave myself back over 100 hours.

LOL...that's how I feel about fantasy baseball & golf

I don't post on those forums any more though

 

[Sabertooth]

I am seriously considering getting out. I find that I don't really enjoy watching my Packers games nearly as much when I play ff. I really liked the games much more after the fantasy season was over with.

 

[ghostguy123]

I am seriously considering getting out. I find that I don't really enjoy watching my Packers games nearly as much when I play ff. I really liked the games much more after the fantasy season was over with.

I pretty much only bothered getting into dynasty leagues and more than 1-2 leagues a year since watching my Browns has proven to not come close to filling my football needs.

 

[Sabertooth]

Yeah but I'm a Packers fan. They are going to be contenders for the next few year anyway. I wish I could find somebody to run dynasty my teams this year in case I want to get back in after going a year without.

 

[ol blues]

With the constant admonition that this year's lessons may be...and usually are...tomorrow's follies, the re affirmations that I had this season for redraft leagues follow.

1.QB is deep and getting deeper. So why go there with early picks?

2. Opportunity in a quality offense yields elite production for pedestrian players. Who are the future Moreno's and Foles?

3. When you find talent pursue it even if the opportunity appears blocked or frustrated: Gordon, Allen, Gio.

4. Fundamental flaws in basic game skills are players to avoid with premium picks: Wilson, Miller.

5. The supposed depth at WR is an illusion. 12-15 WRs per season average 10 points/game in standard scoring and you need at least 2 of them.

6. RB2s are available every year at least into round 5-6 if you choose wisely.

7. Consider the source: the scribe invested in the view that Ball starts may not report the warning signs that is untrue.

8. Rookies are always misvalued. Too high and too low, but usually too low because we prefer the safety of what we have observed over the uncertainty of the novel. In a premium year for talent take a reasonable flyer or 3 on rookies.

9. ALWAYS draft the best available player even if it's your 6th consecutive RB. Balance your team by trade and waivers.

10. ALWAYS have fun. It's a game.

Have to disagree with this. So potentially enter the 6th round with 5RBs? No.

 

[ol blues]

So, actual 2010 PPR draft can start up to 3 RBs with 3 RBs already rostered who do you pass on McCoy in the 4th or Foster in the 5th? Both? If so, you passed on 2 RB1s including the #1 scoring RB. In the event I chose both. Traded Rice and Charles (no, I didn't choose well in who to trade) and had a very dull season because my team was so dominant. There is no reason to "fill out your roster." RB1s and other elite producers will always have plenty of trade value. And,oh, by the way: had I known Hillis would have elite production that season I would have drafted him in the 6th round.

 

[ol blues]

With the constant admonition that this year's lessons may be...and usually are...tomorrow's follies, the re affirmations that I had this season for redraft leagues follow.

1.QB is deep and getting deeper. So why go there with early picks?

2. Opportunity in a quality offense yields elite production for pedestrian players. Who are the future Moreno's and Foles?

3. When you find talent pursue it even if the opportunity appears blocked or frustrated: Gordon, Allen, Gio.

4. Fundamental flaws in basic game skills are players to avoid with premium picks: Wilson, Miller.

5. The supposed depth at WR is an illusion. 12-15 WRs per season average 10 points/game in standard scoring and you need at least 2 of them.

6. RB2s are available every year at least into round 5-6 if you choose wisely.

7. Consider the source: the scribe invested in the view that Ball starts may not report the warning signs that is untrue.

8. Rookies are always misvalued. Too high and too low, but usually too low because we prefer the safety of what we have observed over the uncertainty of the novel. In a premium year for talent take a reasonable flyer or 3 on rookies.

9. ALWAYS draft the best available player even if it's your 6th consecutive RB. Balance your team by trade and waivers.

10. ALWAYS have fun. It's a game.

2. Concur on the point, but what makes you think Foles is pedestrian?

5. Maybe. 8 points separated the #1 WR from the #24 (PPR) Once you get past the top 10, 8 points separated the #11 WR from #61. It's not so much depth of the elite, it's depth after the elite.

8. In what formats? 3 rookies can be a lot on a small roster and if the value isn't there, why reach?

9. Again, depends on the format.

Biggest lesson IMO which most appear to overlook is format is perhaps the most important thing when valuing players.

 

[ol blues]

Format is certainly a significant part of defining who the best available player is. So, Wright has descending value in PPR, Standard and (so far at least) TD only leagues, but format only aids in defining who the best available player is. Format doesn't change the rule that you draft the best available player always. So, on one 2012 team Peyton Manning in the 6th round as the 12th QB selected in a format of all TDs counting 6 points was clearly the best player available and a must draft whatever your affinity for QB drafting is...and even if you already drafted your QB.

Your supposed "reach" for 1-3 rookies in premium talent years is perhaps best illustrated by AJ Green and Julio in 2011 with, to be generous, 80s-90s ADPs. Even in small roster formats how do you err by selecting them there? Depending on landing spots the 2014 rookie WR class has a similar look.

WR depth: by definition we are looking for only 10 point plus/game producers in standard scoring because choosing between Torrey Smith at the top of the WR2/3 ladder and Emmanuel Sanders at the bottom doesn't figure to win you any championships. As you and I both note there are 10-15 of those per season. Math tells you that getting the 2 you need requires early picks.

 

[kutta]

So, actual 2010 PPR draft can start up to 3 RBs with 3 RBs already rostered who do you pass on McCoy in the 4th or Foster in the 5th? Both? If so, you passed on 2 RB1s including the #1 scoring RB. In the event I chose both. Traded Rice and Charles (no, I didn't choose well in who to trade) and had a very dull season because my team was so dominant. There is no reason to "fill out your roster." RB1s and other elite producers will always have plenty of trade value. And,oh, by the way: had I known Hillis would have elite production that season I would have drafted him in the 6th round.

You were lucky. The fact is that "best available player" is unknown during the draft. We don't know. We take our best guess, but really, we do not know. So if we are going to take chances we shouldn't take chances that could destroy our team (e.g. six rbs in the first six rounds). I also don't believe you need to draft a starting lineup out of the gate, but you do need to account for the fact that you might miss on some picks and you won't always be lucky with picks in round 4 and 5.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

I learned that taking Sea AND SanFrans D back to back was a GREAT move even though I was mocked at the draft. I still can hear them joking, "Maybe you can start two defenses, lolololol"

I won total points by a fairly close margin and all those points those defenses scored went to me, or more importantly, NOT to my opponents.

Of course this is only if there are two defenses which are head and shoulders above everybody else.

 

[Da Guru]

What I learned again in 2013, it is better to be lucky than good.

 

[Banger]

I learned you need to continue to adapt, LISTEN and do your homework to stay ahead of the pack. There is no one strategy that works and the keys to my success have been to target multiple mid-round value picks, to mine players from the WW each week, have good roster management and make good trades.

Probably the single biggest change I've had to make is to be more pre-emptive in my pickups. The information flows so quickly these days and is so readily available that once something happens it's too late. Everyone gets emails, twitter, has access to multiple websites, listens to podcasts so waiver wire selections are pretty idiot proof these days. If you want Zac Stacy you need to pick him up before he has the breakout game. In order to get players like that early you need to dig deep and do your research, you have to take some risk, and you have to have multiple pokers in the fire to give yourself more chances on hitting on that longshot...if they don't hit you turn them over, rinse and repeat.

You also have to go for upside. This isn't new to me this year but it's reinforced with the success of my teams. I will never waste a roster space on a Boldin / Green Ellis type of player. I go for high ceilings not average/decent floors. I'll grab a CJ Anderson and hold him for 2-3 weeks and if he doesn't get his shot, drop him and pick up the next guy on the horizon over having a BJGE on my team that I will never feel comfortable starting.

I'll rotate that spot until I hit on someone...then maybe I trade that player I hit on (Zac Stacy/Gordon) or more likely I'll deal another more proven player who has more trade value. Guys are often reluctant to give you top dollar for the lottery ticket you hit on but will give you better value for the more proven player (even if you see them as equals in your eyes). Yes, in the case where you deal the more proven player you to take the risk that the lottery ticket flames out instead of shifting it to another team but if you get good value for the player you deal and have a good roster you should still be in fine shape....if the Zac Stacy / Gordon hits then you win a championship.

Listening to all viewpoints has also been a tremendous help. I used to get married to players and would make up my mind on them and either sink or swim with them. Now as I've gotten older and more experienced I drop my ego at the door and don't care as much if I am wrong on a guy. The key is recognizing it and dealing with it in a timely manner as opposed to digging in your heals and thinking you're right.