Let's Talk Backup Running Backs (2 Viewers)

[Gatorman]

Okay, Knee deep into my rankings and I wanted to get some thoughts as to how we see all of these guys in terms of opportunity.

Rules and thoughts:

1) Some of these guys are in RBBC, and I went with the person that I think is the lesser of the two RBs

2) Others are 3rd down guys

3) FInally we have the supposed "true backup" to the starter.

Lets get to it.

Tier 1 of the backups:

Daniel Thomas

Danny Woodhead

BJGE

Pierre Thomas

CJ SPiller

Ben Tate

J Starks

Thomas Jones

Discussion: The new england running game is a bit of an enigma. These two guys should get the bulk of the action until the rookies come along. Everyone else on this list (other than Tate) will see some playing time even if the primary RB stays healthy, the question is how much.

Tier 2:

Ladanian Tomlinson

Tolbert

Ricky Williams

Ronnie Brown

Javon RInger

Bernard Scott

Tony Gerhardt

McGahee

Brandon Jacobs

Rashard Jennings

This tier holds the primary backups to the big guys at the top of the draft (excluding tate who may have been arian foster if he hadn't gotten hurt). Again, Ladanian and Tolbert may see playing time in any case (mcgahee too), but I am not sure I prefer their kind of spot start vs some of these other guys (as a swing for the fences type pick)

Tier 3

James Stewart

Michael Bush

Issac Redman

The Arizona backup to Beanie wells (Player to be named)

Delonte Carter

Not high on stewart bc he is hurt. Bush should be higher, but I am not as high on McFadden as most so that suffers Bush as well. Not sold on Delonte with the indy Offense in my mind likely to start slow.

Tier 4

Ryan Torrain

Mike Goodson

Anthony Dixon

T Choice/ Demarco Murray

Forsett

Snelling

E graham

tier 4 to me are waiver wire guys unless you are in really deep leagues.

This was my initial thought process. Looking to chop these tiers up a little more and thought it made for good discussion here. Let me know your thoughts...

Gatorman

 

[Gatorman]

162 views and no opinions? WAKE UP!!!!

 

[hook014]

Overall I like your list but would cherry pick a little based on expected/hopeful outcomes. Although I mainly play in dynasty now we'll keep it to redraft.

Guys I would be happy to draft later and hit the jackpot:

Starks- Has a year in the system and is ahead of all rookies in pass protect so he gets a little bump there. Plays in a dynamic offense, a big bump in my rankings. While I dont think he'll sit Grant down he could easily rank in the top 12 if Grant falls to injury. If I get this guy late he would be hard to cut at any point in the season. I could see myself cutting a backup TE to keep this guy.

Carter- Already passed D Brown on depth chart. Can Addai keep him on the bench? Maybe. But if PM is comfortable with his blitz coverage he could win the job by mid season. I'm serious.

McGahee- Nobody was more meh about this guy than me over the last few yrs. However, I would be happy to get him around his ADP now. He's looked great in preseason and has a run happy new coach. Moreno seems to be an enigma in Denver and Fox has nothing invested in him. As Bronco fan seeing McGahee win a lions share of the carries would not surprise me. A good reason to draft early as we get closer to the season I see his value climbing.

D Thomas- I know Sporano is saying all the right things but does anyone believe Reggie can carry a 65% load in Miami? I dont. The knock on Thomas is that he's looked rather slow and plays on an offense that is anything but dynamic. Could emerge as a good bye week filler. Limited upside.

P Thomas- If you draft Ingram and dont get Thomas you have really screwed the pooch. Even with all the bodies in NO he could help win a championship.

Tate- Same as Pierre. a must handcuff.

 

[bigmarc27]

Snelling will end up with over 150 carries this year one way or the other.

 

[Man In The Box]

Granted, I've only done free leagues and mocks so far, but if Carter is as cheap in my money leagues as he's been in mocks and free leagues, he'll be on all of my teams.

 

[Gatorman]

Snelling will end up with over 150 carries this year one way or the other.

I guess I am overvaluing in some ways how long certain players were out there as FAs before being resigned. Perhaps I should move him up. The Larry Johnson signing by the dolphins does not put him on this list, but may cause me to lower Daniel Thomas because he may be losing the faith of the coaching staff.Anyone else have an issue with any player that should move up or down?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I re-organized your tiers according to what I have seen in drafts and mocks:

Tier 1:

• Willis McGahee: With all the negativity around Moreno, and John Fox’s run heavy offense, he’s in a great situation to out-produce his ADP.

•Mike Tolbert: With many indicators that SD will be RBBC and doubts about Ryan Mathews as a bellcow, he will command a decent workload.

• Daniel Thomas & Reggie Bush: Thomas is being drafted ahead of R. Bush in my leagues and mocks. R. Bush follows shortly thereafter. Both are tier 1.

• BJGE & Woodhead: BJGE is clearly going ahead by at least 2 rounds. BJGE is tier 1. Woodhead is tier 2 or tier 3 by the time he’s drafted.

• J Starks: In RBBC and will get a good chunk of the Packer workload, among the first to go in tier 1

• Brandon Jacobs: Will share a heavy workload with Bradshaw. Bradshaw owners will have to overpay to secure the Giant RB situation.

Tier 2:

• Michael Bush: McFadden owners will overpay, or be held hostage to the Bush owner knowing McFadden’s injury history. Bush is a beast, and could easily produce RB #1 numbers if given the chance.

• James Stewart: Tier 1 on talent alone, but has the same frustrating PT position as Bush.

• CJ Spiller: He’s being drafted relatively close to Fred Jackson, and could be a lottery pick, but I personally would draft him as a tier 3.

• LaDanian Tomlinson: He’s been drafted as a tier 2, although many are ignoring his declining role and age. I see him as Tier 3.

• Pierre Thomas: Drafted so many rounds after Ingram, it’s telling of his relative value. He’s strictly a handcuff. He’s a Tier 2, but unless I am an Ingram owner, I let him fall to tier 3.

Tier 3:

• Bernard Scott: Solid handcuff for C. Benson owners

• Rashard Jennings: Strictly a handcuff for MJD owners

• Javon Ringer: Sneaky late round handcuff for CJ owners. Currently in Tier 3, but has potential to produce like a Tier 1

• Ryan Torrain: Drafted as a tier 3 but could be a Tier 2 because of the potential for rotating RB’s in Shanahanland

• Jason Snelling: Should be Tier 2. But still drafted like a tier 3. All around decent back who could take a lead role if Turner wears down. That’s not that unlikely when you think about it.

Tier 4: (Handcuffs)

• Ben Tate: Late round handcuff for Foster owners.

• Ricky Williams: late round handcuff for Rice owners.

• Ronnie Brown: late round handcuff for Shady owners.

• Issac Redman: late round Mendy handcuff.

• Thomas Jones: late round handcuff for Charles owners.

Tier 5: (late round flyers)

• Delonte Carter: Climbing the depth chart and an injury away from being relevant

• Stevon Ridley: In a crowded RB situation, but has shown flashes of a lotto ticket.

• DeMarco Murray: Dynamic offense and lots of Cowboy fans ensures this guy gets drafted late.

Tier 6: (waiver wire guys)

• Goodson, Forsett, Choice, Dixon, Graham, Stevens-Howling, Gerhardt are typically undrafted except in the case of the deeper leagues. Choice still seems to hold some value in case he ever gets traded to a RB needy team. But for now, he’s part of this group.

 

[Gatorman]

Thanks Raider: My feeling on woodhead is that while BJGE is the bellcow for the moment, Woodhead will be the "kevin Faulk" of this offense. In a PPR league he should be a solid RB#4 spot starter and flex player.

AS for the tier 4 "handcuffs" it seems to me that 4/5 of them could be stellar if the guys ahead of them go down. Maybe as a dolphin fan I am overestimating Ricky and ronnie, but they both seem tailor made to jump into those offenses without the coach having to dial down the playbook from Mccoy or rice.

 

[Teef]

• Bernard Scott: Solid handcuff for C. Benson owners• Rashard Jennings: Strictly a handcuff for MJD owners• Javon Ringer: Sneaky late round handcuff for CJ owners. Currently in Tier 3, but has potential to produce like a Tier 1• Ryan Torrain: Drafted as a tier 3 but could be a Tier 2 because of the potential for rotating RB’s in Shanahanland• Jason Snelling: Should be Tier 2. But still drafted like a tier 3. All around decent back who could take a lead role if Turner wears down. That’s not that unlikely when you think about it.Tier 4: (Handcuffs)• Ben Tate: Late round handcuff for Foster owners.

Let's say the starter in front of every handcuff listed above went down last week. Do you really think Tate in the Texans offense would produce less than the handcuffs in the Bengals, Titans, Redskins and Falcons offenses?

 

[Instinctive]

Tolbert and Jacobs go up in tier 1 for me, and the rest of your tier 1 becomes tier two. These two guys are by far the best RB values in the draft, IMO:

Tolbert is going to be the goalline guy in SD, and he's gonna get his carries too - not to mention he can catch out of the backfield.

Jacobs is a guy who can go for 5.0 ypc for an entire season and can be a battering ram on the goal line when he stops dancing. He seems to have evolved into a more downhill runner the past couple seasons, and while some would say he's an injury risk...isn't Bradshaw just as much? Even if he only gets 40% of the carries in NY, he's a great value.

With these two guys available where they are I like going WR/WR/QB/TE or WR in my first 5 rounds drafting in the back. In the front, going RB and then WR/QB/TE for 4 rounds is how my drafts seem to turn out best. I love getting these guys in the 6th and 7th (much higher than their ADP I believe, but I don;t want to wait and miss them). They could be studs if the other guys are hurt, and should be solid contributors anyway if the other guys stay healthy. My favorite type of pick as the ceiling is super high and the floor is relatively high as well (not Ray Rice high, but you get the point).

 

[Raiderfan32904]

• Bernard Scott: Solid handcuff for C. Benson owners• Rashard Jennings: Strictly a handcuff for MJD owners• Javon Ringer: Sneaky late round handcuff for CJ owners. Currently in Tier 3, but has potential to produce like a Tier 1• Ryan Torrain: Drafted as a tier 3 but could be a Tier 2 because of the potential for rotating RB’s in Shanahanland• Jason Snelling: Should be Tier 2. But still drafted like a tier 3. All around decent back who could take a lead role if Turner wears down. That’s not that unlikely when you think about it.Tier 4: (Handcuffs)• Ben Tate: Late round handcuff for Foster owners.

Let's say the starter in front of every handcuff listed above went down last week. Do you really think Tate in the Texans offense would produce less than the handcuffs in the Bengals, Titans, Redskins and Falcons offenses?

Tate has an injury history and hasn't proven anything at this level. I don't think it's a given that Houston wouldn't shop for a RB or trade for one should Foster go down. I don't have a dog in the Houston RB situation. This is just my unbiased opinion. And I have Tate in the handcuff category because that's what I am reporting as seeing in drafts. That's just information from my limited perspective of recent drafts.

 

[BallparkFrank]

As a Forte owner, I really hate having MBIII around as opposed to Chester Taylor. Less pie for me!

 

[Raiderfan32904]

As a Forte owner, I really hate having MBIII around as opposed to Chester Taylor. Less pie for me!

Speaking of MBIII, I'd have put him into tier 3, although he's great value being scooped up with the tier 4 boys.

 

[Instinctive]

• Bernard Scott: Solid handcuff for C. Benson owners• Rashard Jennings: Strictly a handcuff for MJD owners• Javon Ringer: Sneaky late round handcuff for CJ owners. Currently in Tier 3, but has potential to produce like a Tier 1• Ryan Torrain: Drafted as a tier 3 but could be a Tier 2 because of the potential for rotating RB’s in Shanahanland• Jason Snelling: Should be Tier 2. But still drafted like a tier 3. All around decent back who could take a lead role if Turner wears down. That’s not that unlikely when you think about it.Tier 4: (Handcuffs)• Ben Tate: Late round handcuff for Foster owners.

Let's say the starter in front of every handcuff listed above went down last week. Do you really think Tate in the Texans offense would produce less than the handcuffs in the Bengals, Titans, Redskins and Falcons offenses?

Tate has an injury history and hasn't proven anything at this level. I don't think it's a given that Houston wouldn't shop for a RB or trade for one should Foster go down. I don't have a dog in the Houston RB situation. This is just my unbiased opinion. And I have Tate in the handcuff category because that's what I am reporting as seeing in drafts. That's just information from my limited perspective of recent drafts.

Can you even recall the last time a RB was traded for during the season? The only one I can think of is Philly trading for Jerome Harrison last year...and they traded Mike Bell (you know, another RB) to get him. Which is a different situation in my mind.

 

[BallparkFrank]

• Bernard Scott: Solid handcuff for C. Benson owners

• Rashard Jennings: Strictly a handcuff for MJD owners

• Javon Ringer: Sneaky late round handcuff for CJ owners. Currently in Tier 3, but has potential to produce like a Tier 1

• Ryan Torrain: Drafted as a tier 3 but could be a Tier 2 because of the potential for rotating RB’s in Shanahanland

• Jason Snelling: Should be Tier 2. But still drafted like a tier 3. All around decent back who could take a lead role if Turner wears down. That’s not that unlikely when you think about it.

Tier 4: (Handcuffs)

• Ben Tate: Late round handcuff for Foster owners.

Let's say the starter in front of every handcuff listed above went down last week. Do you really think Tate in the Texans offense would produce less than the handcuffs in the Bengals, Titans, Redskins and Falcons offenses?

Tate has an injury history and hasn't proven anything at this level. I don't think it's a given that Houston wouldn't shop for a RB or trade for one should Foster go down. I don't have a dog in the Houston RB situation. This is just my unbiased opinion. And I have Tate in the handcuff category because that's what I am reporting as seeing in drafts. That's just information from my limited perspective of recent drafts.

Can you even recall the last time a RB was traded for during the season? The only one I can think of is Philly trading for Jerome Harrison last year...and they traded Mike Bell (you know, another RB) to get him. Which is a different situation in my mind.

Ryan Grant and Marshawn Lynch off the top of my head.

 

[Itchy Amos]

Great topic.

I think that McGahee is going to prove to be a steal at his current ADP. I believe he has a shot at solid RB2 numbers before its all said and done. Reading the camp notes, it sounds like McGahee is carving out a pretty big chunk of carries - plus goal line duty.

I'm also starting to like Jacobs. He finished #22 in my league last year. If he does experience a bump in carries and keep his TD production at least equal to last year, he will probably end up in the 15-18 range. Thats pretty solid value for the end of round 8.

 

[Instinctive]

• Bernard Scott: Solid handcuff for C. Benson owners

• Rashard Jennings: Strictly a handcuff for MJD owners

• Javon Ringer: Sneaky late round handcuff for CJ owners. Currently in Tier 3, but has potential to produce like a Tier 1

• Ryan Torrain: Drafted as a tier 3 but could be a Tier 2 because of the potential for rotating RB’s in Shanahanland

• Jason Snelling: Should be Tier 2. But still drafted like a tier 3. All around decent back who could take a lead role if Turner wears down. That’s not that unlikely when you think about it.

Tier 4: (Handcuffs)

• Ben Tate: Late round handcuff for Foster owners.

Let's say the starter in front of every handcuff listed above went down last week. Do you really think Tate in the Texans offense would produce less than the handcuffs in the Bengals, Titans, Redskins and Falcons offenses?

Tate has an injury history and hasn't proven anything at this level. I don't think it's a given that Houston wouldn't shop for a RB or trade for one should Foster go down. I don't have a dog in the Houston RB situation. This is just my unbiased opinion. And I have Tate in the handcuff category because that's what I am reporting as seeing in drafts. That's just information from my limited perspective of recent drafts.

Can you even recall the last time a RB was traded for during the season? The only one I can think of is Philly trading for Jerome Harrison last year...and they traded Mike Bell (you know, another RB) to get him. Which is a different situation in my mind.

Ryan Grant and Marshawn Lynch off the top of my head.

Good: we have two case studies to look at then.Did Seattle have a starter go down to injury in the Lynch trade? I don't think so - but they did suck somethign awful at the spot.

Ryan Grant: I don't believe he was traded in season. In fact, he was traded September 1st, before the season began, for a future 6th round pick in order to be the 3rd strong RB for Green bay. He then got his opportunity (this is total memory recall now) on a Monday Night against Denver, iirc. Completely different situation, and also doesn't fit the criteria of an in season trade.

So Lynch is a viable example. Last year, of 30 NFL teams, exactly one made a trade for a RB that wasn't simply a RB exchange. Could Houston do that if Foster goes down? Possibly. Isn't it more likely though that they give their recently drafted in the 2nd round young gun a shot at the load and use Slaton or sign a veteran FA to split off some carries (a la Ahman Green recently)???

 

[FDC]

BJGE, Spiller, TJones, McGahee all could arguably be classified as 'starters' considering they could be the first one to get carries in a game. Charles, Moreno, Jackson probably all have more fantasy value. Another backup not even mentioned on this list should be a whole tier above these guys (J Stewart). Point being, ranking 'backups' quickly loses its relevance anymore. Determining value doesn't necessarily have anything to do with whether a back starts or not.

 

[Gatorman]

BJGE, Spiller, TJones, McGahee all could arguably be classified as 'starters' considering they could be the first one to get carries in a game. Charles, Moreno, Jackson probably all have more fantasy value. Another backup not even mentioned on this list should be a whole tier above these guys (J Stewart). Point being, ranking 'backups' quickly loses its relevance anymore. Determining value doesn't necessarily have anything to do with whether a back starts or not.

Stewart is mentioned, I just have him very low due to 1) injury and 2) goodson.The truth is that if you are drafting past round 9, all of these guys come into play. Some are pseudo-"starters" but in very murky RB situations. Others are straight handcuffs. Still, what I am trying to accomplish is a list that values the straight handcuff vs the rbbc guy.Formula would look something like this:Value = (# of Touches, TDs, Receptions if #1 guys is healthy) + ((#of Touches, TDs, Receptions if #1 guy is out)* Possibility of that happenning) - (Another player stepping into the RBBC role)I can't numerically figure this formula. Is is a gut equation. If Ray rice got hurt tomorrow and Ricky Williams was named the starter, ricky would be somewhere about RB 15 - 20. This is what I am trying to list with "best guess". So if Mccoy, Rice, Foster, Charles, and Peterson went down, how would you rank their backups... (Stuff like that)

 

[werdnoynek]

who the hell is james stewart?

even though you have the name wrong at least we can make out who "delonte" carter is lol...

other than random misspellings and unknowns the list looks decent

 

[hook014]

who the hell is james stewart?

He means Jonathon. We just went with it.

 

[Bobcat10]

Solid thread.

I do think from the initial post that Jacobs and McGahee belong in tier 1...and maybe Tolbert too. Woodhead would move down to tier 2 for me.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

who the hell is james stewart?

A great, great actor who made sappy Christmas movies, but let's get back to Jonathan Stewart, eh?

 

[werdnoynek]

who the hell is james stewart?

He means Jonathon. We just went with it.

with the random name and low ranking i wasn't too sure... i think he deserves a bump. and an edit.

 

[shortbow]

Okay, Knee deep into my rankings and I wanted to get some thoughts as to how we see all of these guys in terms of opportunity.Rules and thoughts:1) Some of these guys are in RBBC, and I went with the person that I think is the lesser of the two RBs2) Others are 3rd down guys3) FInally we have the supposed "true backup" to the starter.Lets get to it.Tier 1 of the backupsaniel ThomasDanny WoodheadBJGEPierre ThomasCJ SPillerBen TateJ StarksThomas JonesDiscussion: The new england running game is a bit of an enigma. These two guys should get the bulk of the action until the rookies come along. Everyone else on this list (other than Tate) will see some playing time even if the primary RB stays healthy, the question is how much.Tier 2:Ladanian TomlinsonTolbertRicky WilliamsRonnie BrownJavon RIngerBernard ScottTony GerhardtMcGaheeBrandon JacobsRashard Jennings

Im pretty confused what you based these off of? From my point of view almost every one of the backs in your 2nd tier should be in the first tier.Thinking that backup is a poor title, more like not starting RB.Tier 1:Mike TolbertJonathon StewartBrandon JacobsThomas JonesMichael BushPierre ThomasCJ SpillerWillis McgaheeEvery Back in this tier is getting a fair share of the ball already, with the exception of spiller and bush they are all proven talents, few of them will almost certainly be the exclusive shortyard/goal line backs. Tier 2:Javon RingerRashad JenningsBen TateDanny WoodheadLess of a share than in Tier 1, but outside circumstances (injury risk/holdout/gadget potential) puts their workload and potential value higher than tier 3.Tier 3:Steven RidleyToby GerhardtDemarco MurrayJustin ForsettJason SnellingDaniel ThomasJames StarksThese guys have potential to get more touches than all the guys in the 2nd tier, but likely wont.

 

[Fubared]

• Bernard Scott: Solid handcuff for C. Benson owners

• Rashard Jennings: Strictly a handcuff for MJD owners

• Javon Ringer: Sneaky late round handcuff for CJ owners. Currently in Tier 3, but has potential to produce like a Tier 1

• Ryan Torrain: Drafted as a tier 3 but could be a Tier 2 because of the potential for rotating RB’s in Shanahanland

• Jason Snelling: Should be Tier 2. But still drafted like a tier 3. All around decent back who could take a lead role if Turner wears down. That’s not that unlikely when you think about it.

Tier 4: (Handcuffs)

• Ben Tate: Late round handcuff for Foster owners.

Let's say the starter in front of every handcuff listed above went down last week. Do you really think Tate in the Texans offense would produce less than the handcuffs in the Bengals, Titans, Redskins and Falcons offenses?

Tate has an injury history and hasn't proven anything at this level. I don't think it's a given that Houston wouldn't shop for a RB or trade for one should Foster go down. I don't have a dog in the Houston RB situation. This is just my unbiased opinion. And I have Tate in the handcuff category because that's what I am reporting as seeing in drafts. That's just information from my limited perspective of recent drafts.

Can you even recall the last time a RB was traded for during the season? The only one I can think of is Philly trading for Jerome Harrison last year...and they traded Mike Bell (you know, another RB) to get him. Which is a different situation in my mind.

Ryan Grant and Marshawn Lynch off the top of my head.

Good: we have two case studies to look at then.Did Seattle have a starter go down to injury in the Lynch trade? I don't think so - but they did suck somethign awful at the spot.

Ryan Grant: I don't believe he was traded in season. In fact, he was traded September 1st, before the season began, for a future 6th round pick in order to be the 3rd strong RB for Green bay. He then got his opportunity (this is total memory recall now) on a Monday Night against Denver, iirc. Completely different situation, and also doesn't fit the criteria of an in season trade.

So Lynch is a viable example. Last year, of 30 NFL teams, exactly one made a trade for a RB that wasn't simply a RB exchange. Could Houston do that if Foster goes down? Possibly. Isn't it more likely though that they give their recently drafted in the 2nd round young gun a shot at the load and use Slaton or sign a veteran FA to split off some carries (a la Ahman Green recently)???

You are forgetting about Derrick Ward aren't you.

 

[Gatorman]

sorry about the misspellings. I am doing 3 or 4 things at once. (right now I am trying to slog through The valuing and tiering of WR 36 - 60 or so)

Again, Guys getting the ball already do not mean to me that they are better than the "home run player" out there. Some coaches like RBBC no matter what happens. Others sit with the hot hand. I am just working on my list and figured it would be a decent discussion.

Shortbow: I Like your list. It makes sense to me.

 

[FDC]

Stewart is mentioned, I just have him very low due to 1) injury and 2) goodson.The truth is that if you are drafting past round 9, all of these guys come into play. Some are pseudo-"starters" but in very murky RB situations. Others are straight handcuffs. Still, what I am trying to accomplish is a list that values the straight handcuff vs the rbbc guy.Formula would look something like this:Value = (# of Touches, TDs, Receptions if #1 guys is healthy) + ((#of Touches, TDs, Receptions if #1 guy is out)* Possibility of that happenning) - (Another player stepping into the RBBC role)I can't numerically figure this formula. Is is a gut equation. If Ray rice got hurt tomorrow and Ricky Williams was named the starter, ricky would be somewhere about RB 15 - 20. This is what I am trying to list with "best guess". So if Mccoy, Rice, Foster, Charles, and Peterson went down, how would you rank their backups... (Stuff like that)

First of all, if you are talking after round 9 you eliminate a bunch of these guys. Other than that I think you are on the right track its just the thread title is a bit confusing. I guess I thought James(should be Jonathan) Stewart was a typo for James Starks. ADP wise ignoring Charles, Stewart is a pretty far ahead of most here (not that I agree with that). To answer your question, I find myself reaching for guys in this range that might be feature backs but are slipping in drafts for whatever reason. I think its a constantly changing guy week to week now. Guys I like...Felix Jones - ADP sky rocketing. Still like the value.Reggie Bush - ADP rising. Still like the valueJahvid Best - I like the valueHightower - Price might be getting too step for meSome guys I like that some don't (after round 9) are Spiller, McGahee, Addai, HeluFWIW I favor PPR in my rankings

 

[runner06]

who the hell is james stewart?even though you have the name wrong at least we can make out who "delonte" carter is lol... other than random misspellings and unknowns the list looks decent

He rushed for a 1000 yards for the Detroit Lions back in 2000 and 2002. He also racked up 900+ yards and 13 touchdowns for the Jaguars in 1999. Still a young 39 years old.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Felix Jones - ADP sky rocketing. Still like the value.Reggie Bush - ADP rising. Still like the valueJahvid Best - I like the valueHightower - Price might be getting too step for meSome guys I like that some don't (after round 9) are Spiller, McGahee, Addai, HeluFWIW I favor PPR in my rankings

• Felix: Going as high as the late 3rd round - I just don't see it on this pass happy team.• Reggie Bush: Going as high as the late 6th - Always has a high PPR floor, but has never proven he can handle a bell cow workload. Risk too great to draft this high.• Best: Consistently going in the early 4th round and I expect a 5th round clearance markdown for his concussed status alone. Overvalued at the moment.• Hightower: Still an excellent value in the 7th round, and if you play your cards right and pair with Torrian, you have a nice backfield committee to plug in as RB3 or flex.(all PPR)

 

[jon_mx]

Harrison is a must have backup. There is a good chance he leads the Lions in rushing.

 

[APigskin]

I'm really surprised Marion Barber isn't getting more love. The guy is a beast and reports out of camp and preseason play have been quite positive. He's going to get some carries even if Forte doesn't go down and if forte does get injured, could be quite a lucrative situation. I put him in tier 2 and his value on draft day is awesome (last rounds).

And yes I know he's technically still behind Chester Taylor, but I don't think that'll be for much longer.

 

[FDC]

• Felix: Going as high as the late 3rd round - I just don't see it on this pass happy team.• Reggie Bush: Going as high as the late 6th - Always has a high PPR floor, but has never proven he can handle a bell cow workload. Risk too great to draft this high.• Best: Consistently going in the early 4th round and I expect a 5th round clearance markdown for his concussed status alone. Overvalued at the moment.• Hightower: Still an excellent value in the 7th round, and if you play your cards right and pair with Torrian, you have a nice backfield committee to plug in as RB3 or flex.(all PPR)

These are my upside RB3 picks so yes I am willing to reach when I see fit based on need. I have found that usually one will fall past your listed ADP 'ceilings.'Anyone you are targeting in this RB3 range?I also like Ingram

 

[Patsfan39]

who the hell is james stewart?even though you have the name wrong at least we can make out who "delonte" carter is lol... other than random misspellings and unknowns the list looks decent

I was thinking the same thing when I read this... I guess he means Jon Stewart. In that case, he's easily the best backup RB right now in the NFL.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

• Felix: Going as high as the late 3rd round - I just don't see it on this pass happy team.• Reggie Bush: Going as high as the late 6th - Always has a high PPR floor, but has never proven he can handle a bell cow workload. Risk too great to draft this high.• Best: Consistently going in the early 4th round and I expect a 5th round clearance markdown for his concussed status alone. Overvalued at the moment.• Hightower: Still an excellent value in the 7th round, and if you play your cards right and pair with Torrian, you have a nice backfield committee to plug in as RB3 or flex.(all PPR)

These are my upside RB3 picks so yes I am willing to reach when I see fit based on need. I have found that usually one will fall past your listed ADP 'ceilings.'Anyone you are targeting in this RB3 range?I also like Ingram

I absolutely love Ingram right now, and am getting him in the late 4th and early 5th after Best is gone. So many doubts about the Saints backfield 'committee' and few rushing attempts. But Ingram is a bellcow who they will continue feed once the season starts. I'm very high on him and he's a dirt cheap value imo. I also like Hightower where he's going. You can spend an 8th rounder and a 12 rounder in Torrain and have a nice committee RB3 Flex for the price of a 6th round RB3, and you have the security of a handcuff rolled in the package. I like the value.Tolbert is an exceptional value, as I don't think Mathews will ever develop into the bellcow they thought they drafted in San Diego. Tolbert is much too valuable to that offense to rest on the sidelines. Tolbert is at worst a flex play and if Mathews goes down, an every week starter.Snelling is a value for how cheap he's going. I don't believe in Turner at his age and mileage. Just a hunch, but I don't think he makes it through the season. Snelling could be an every week starter if Turner goes down (which I think is likelier than most other situations). Regardless, the Falcons offense is going to be more pass oriented, and with their high scoring offense, they still need a finisher at the GL. I think Snelling is a steal in the 12th/13th round.

 

[johnadams]

I give quite a lot of thought to handcuffs. Basically, I put guys into four categories knowing that there is a bit of cross pollination. I don't put tiers per se on them because the different groups fill different needs on my team. Straightline (mainly back-ups) provide depth to those who have the primary back in the form of insurance. RBBC guys provide depth and potential starters in their own right. Upside backs provide the potential of signficant returns by either having the ability to take the starter's job through performance or because the starter represents a significant injury risk . In placing guys into the four categories, I look at their role, the injury potential of the incumbent (or suspension/holdout), and the upside independent of the primary back.

Grouping one: Untouchables. Depending on league size, this will vary, but at the very least, right now I consider the ARI and TB back-ups to be undraftable.

Grouping two: Straightline backs. These are mostly pure back-ups that stand to gain touches only through injuries to the incumbents without much value independent of injury. I don't rank these as the main scenario that would hold my interest is if I had the incumbent. I only draft these as potential depth should my primary get injured. I've never been a fan of drafting someone else's straightline handcuff to hold the team hostage as others do. For me, the straightline backs are guys that are not likely to get additional touches through performance (either their own good performance or poor performance by the incumbent) and have little value on their own. Here are the guys I see in this group. I've listed them in what I see as the order of importance if you draft the primary back based on the likelihood of missing games for the incumbent, the relative talent level of the handcuff, and the investment required of the primary (higher round equals higher investment.

Snelling, ATL

Ricky Williams, MIA

Javon Ringer, TEN

Tashard Choice, DAL

Bernard Scott, CIN

Gerhardt, MIN

Jerome Harrison, DET

Jennings, JAX

Ronnie Brown, MIA

Ben Tate/Derrick Ward, HOU

McCluster, KC

Isaac Redman, PIT

Forsett, SEA

Bilal Powell, NYJ

Caddy, STL

The second grouping are those with somewhat defined roles in existing or expected RBBCs. Typically, these are guys that have value either as Flex/bye week fillers or with the potential to become the primary back absent injury to the incumbent. I rank these RBs as I would draft them independently of the primary back, though in a rational world, I would still hold them in higher esteem than my league mates. In general, the guys towards the top are guys that I see as those that would gain from missed time to the incumbents while the ones toward the bottom appear to have defined roles who would gain less while another backfield player would gain more. Much of the same criteria from the straightline handcuffs applies here as well.

1) Jonathan Stewart, CAR.

2) McGahee, DEN

3) Daniel Thomas, MIA.

4) Mike Tolbert, SD

5) Starks, GB.

6) Michael Bush, OAK.

7) Brandon Jacobs, NYG

8) Pierre Thomas, NO.

9) Thomas Jones, KC.

10) LT

11) Danny Woodhead

My last group is the Upside RBs. Often, they fit into the other categories as well, but these are the guys that I think can carve out a much bigger role for themselves strictly through performance (whether his good or the incumbent's poor) and provide big returns. Incumbent injury risk is also factored in.

1) CJ Spiller, BUF

2) Delone Carter, IND

3) Montario Hardesty, CLE

4) Roy Helu, WAS

5) Stevan Ridley, NE

6) Kendall Hunter, SF

7) Jacquizz Rogers, ATL

8) Donald Brown, IND

9) Brandon Jackson, CLE

10) Taiwan Jones, OAK

11) Anthony Dixon, SF

Granted, this is far from perfect, but it's how I tend to look at things.

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

No mention of Kendall Hunter? He's at least tier 2 for me. Frankly, any RB behind Frank Gore would be a higher tier as they're virtually guaranteed to play, but I specifically like Hunter as well.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I give quite a lot of thought to handcuffs. Basically, I put guys into four categories knowing that there is a bit of cross pollination. I don't put tiers per se on them because the different groups fill different needs on my team. Straightline (mainly back-ups) provide depth to those who have the primary back in the form of insurance. RBBC guys provide depth and potential starters in their own right. Upside backs provide the potential of signficant returns by either having the ability to take the starter's job through performance or because the starter represents a significant injury risk . In placing guys into the four categories, I look at their role, the injury potential of the incumbent (or suspension/holdout), and the upside independent of the primary back. Grouping one: Untouchables. Depending on league size, this will vary, but at the very least, right now I consider the ARI and TB back-ups to be undraftable. Grouping two: Straightline backs. These are mostly pure back-ups that stand to gain touches only through injuries to the incumbents without much value independent of injury. I don't rank these as the main scenario that would hold my interest is if I had the incumbent. I only draft these as potential depth should my primary get injured. I've never been a fan of drafting someone else's straightline handcuff to hold the team hostage as others do. For me, the straightline backs are guys that are not likely to get additional touches through performance (either their own good performance or poor performance by the incumbent) and have little value on their own. Here are the guys I see in this group. I've listed them in what I see as the order of importance if you draft the primary back based on the likelihood of missing games for the incumbent, the relative talent level of the handcuff, and the investment required of the primary (higher round equals higher investment.Snelling, ATL Ricky Williams, MIAJavon Ringer, TEN Tashard Choice, DALBernard Scott, CINGerhardt, MINJerome Harrison, DETJennings, JAXRonnie Brown, MIABen Tate/Derrick Ward, HOUMcCluster, KCIsaac Redman, PITForsett, SEA Bilal Powell, NYJCaddy, STLThe second grouping are those with somewhat defined roles in existing or expected RBBCs. Typically, these are guys that have value either as Flex/bye week fillers or with the potential to become the primary back absent injury to the incumbent. I rank these RBs as I would draft them independently of the primary back, though in a rational world, I would still hold them in higher esteem than my league mates. In general, the guys towards the top are guys that I see as those that would gain from missed time to the incumbents while the ones toward the bottom appear to have defined roles who would gain less while another backfield player would gain more. Much of the same criteria from the straightline handcuffs applies here as well.1) Jonathan Stewart, CAR. 2) McGahee, DEN 3) Daniel Thomas, MIA. 4) Mike Tolbert, SD5) Starks, GB.6) Michael Bush, OAK.7) Brandon Jacobs, NYG8) Pierre Thomas, NO. 9) Thomas Jones, KC. 10) LT11) Danny Woodhead My last group is the Upside RBs. Often, they fit into the other categories as well, but these are the guys that I think can carve out a much bigger role for themselves strictly through performance (whether his good or the incumbent's poor) and provide big returns. Incumbent injury risk is also factored in. 1) CJ Spiller, BUF2) Delone Carter, IND3) Montario Hardesty, CLE4) Roy Helu, WAS5) Stevan Ridley, NE 6) Kendall Hunter, SF7) Jacquizz Rogers, ATL8) Donald Brown, IND9) Brandon Jackson, CLE10) Taiwan Jones, OAK11) Anthony Dixon, SFGranted, this is far from perfect, but it's how I tend to look at things.

I would flip Bilal and Dixon, otherwise... well done.

 

[macknova]

I have Delone Carter on my roster right now, but I'm seriously considering dropping him for Snelling, even though I have Addai. I feel with backup runningbacks, the goal is to get a guy who either has a good chance to get the job, or a guy who would have a lot of value if the starter got hurt.

To me, both Carter and Snelling have a good chance to be relevant because the starters are injury-prone. But if Addai gets hurt, how valuable is a rookie Carter in a Collins-led offense? Snelling has proven in the past he can be a solid fantasy back if Turner goes down, which he's prone to do as well.

I just don't know whether to pull the trigger and drop Carter. If Addai got hurt and Carter was gone, my team would be screwed, especially since I already lost Peyton. But if I get Snelling, the Bears defense is more physical than the Texans, and maybe Turner gets hurt and I beat everyone to the punch with Snelling.

 

[zamboni]

I have Delone Carter on my roster right now, but I'm seriously considering dropping him for Snelling, even though I have Addai. I feel with backup runningbacks, the goal is to get a guy who either has a good chance to get the job, or a guy who would have a lot of value if the starter got hurt. To me, both Carter and Snelling have a good chance to be relevant because the starters are injury-prone. But if Addai gets hurt, how valuable is a rookie Carter in a Collins-led offense? Snelling has proven in the past he can be a solid fantasy back if Turner goes down, which he's prone to do as well.I just don't know whether to pull the trigger and drop Carter. If Addai got hurt and Carter was gone, my team would be screwed, especially since I already lost Peyton. But if I get Snelling, the Bears defense is more physical than the Texans, and maybe Turner gets hurt and I beat everyone to the punch with Snelling.

At the expense of making this an ACF thing, I would stick with Carter. It may not even take an injury to Addai for this guy to take over. Snelling needs a Turner injury, and not something I would bank on.The Colts offense won't be as prolific without Manning, but probably won't be as bad as people think with Collins. Still a lot of weapons.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

For those finding themselves in deeper leagues where the RB's have been picked over....

Ricky Williams - actually got 12 carries to Rice's 19 for 63 yards; not bad.

McCluster - again this is another "backup" who is actually getting into games (at both RB & WR) and producing some points especially in PPR.

Hunter - Gore looks like he will be run quite a lot. Gore gets hurt at some point, right?

Scott - as with Gore Benson seems to be getting the ball a lot... maybe too much.

Hardesty - He also got a few carries. Like Gore and Benson Hillis is being asked to carry the rock a lot.

Vereen / Ridley - would Belichick bring in a backup RB out of nowhere? Yes he would.

Tate - seems primed for a 1/3 time share, better than he was looking before.

Daniel Thomas - not talking great value here but he may have been dropped in many leagues already + it's Bush and how long can a running game exist on 1/2 a yard and a cloud of dust?

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

I give quite a lot of thought to handcuffs. Basically, I put guys into four categories knowing that there is a bit of cross pollination. I don't put tiers per se on them because the different groups fill different needs on my team. Straightline (mainly back-ups) provide depth to those who have the primary back in the form of insurance. RBBC guys provide depth and potential starters in their own right. Upside backs provide the potential of signficant returns by either having the ability to take the starter's job through performance or because the starter represents a significant injury risk . In placing guys into the four categories, I look at their role, the injury potential of the incumbent (or suspension/holdout), and the upside independent of the primary back. Grouping one: Untouchables. Depending on league size, this will vary, but at the very least, right now I consider the ARI and TB back-ups to be undraftable. Grouping two: Straightline backs. These are mostly pure back-ups that stand to gain touches only through injuries to the incumbents without much value independent of injury. I don't rank these as the main scenario that would hold my interest is if I had the incumbent. I only draft these as potential depth should my primary get injured. I've never been a fan of drafting someone else's straightline handcuff to hold the team hostage as others do. For me, the straightline backs are guys that are not likely to get additional touches through performance (either their own good performance or poor performance by the incumbent) and have little value on their own. Here are the guys I see in this group. I've listed them in what I see as the order of importance if you draft the primary back based on the likelihood of missing games for the incumbent, the relative talent level of the handcuff, and the investment required of the primary (higher round equals higher investment.Snelling, ATL Ricky Williams, MIAJavon Ringer, TEN Tashard Choice, DALBernard Scott, CINGerhardt, MINJerome Harrison, DETJennings, JAXRonnie Brown, MIABen Tate/Derrick Ward, HOUMcCluster, KCIsaac Redman, PITForsett, SEA Bilal Powell, NYJCaddy, STLThe second grouping are those with somewhat defined roles in existing or expected RBBCs. Typically, these are guys that have value either as Flex/bye week fillers or with the potential to become the primary back absent injury to the incumbent. I rank these RBs as I would draft them independently of the primary back, though in a rational world, I would still hold them in higher esteem than my league mates. In general, the guys towards the top are guys that I see as those that would gain from missed time to the incumbents while the ones toward the bottom appear to have defined roles who would gain less while another backfield player would gain more. Much of the same criteria from the straightline handcuffs applies here as well.1) Jonathan Stewart, CAR. 2) McGahee, DEN 3) Daniel Thomas, MIA. 4) Mike Tolbert, SD5) Starks, GB.6) Michael Bush, OAK.7) Brandon Jacobs, NYG8) Pierre Thomas, NO. 9) Thomas Jones, KC. 10) LT11) Danny Woodhead My last group is the Upside RBs. Often, they fit into the other categories as well, but these are the guys that I think can carve out a much bigger role for themselves strictly through performance (whether his good or the incumbent's poor) and provide big returns. Incumbent injury risk is also factored in. 1) CJ Spiller, BUF2) Delone Carter, IND3) Montario Hardesty, CLE4) Roy Helu, WAS5) Stevan Ridley, NE 6) Kendall Hunter, SF7) Jacquizz Rogers, ATL8) Donald Brown, IND9) Brandon Jackson, CLE10) Taiwan Jones, OAK11) Anthony Dixon, SFGranted, this is far from perfect, but it's how I tend to look at things.

This looks good, only change I would suggest is to remove Taiwan Jones altogether. He's a good one to have on the radar, but Bush has shown RB1 talent and production in McFadden's absence. He's much more relevant in long term dynasty talk imo with Bush's contract up next year.