LHUCKS' FBG Consensus Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

LHucks you had Tiki ranked over 20 in 2004, so why such a high ranking in 05?  Last year uephoria.   I think Tiki will perform about to his average this year which should give him draft position of about 10 overall.  Dynasty and keeper leagues should draft him lower.

I like Tiki this year becaue I can't think of many reasons why his numbers will decrease significantly. If Jacobs continues to emerge in training camp and indications become that the Giants may try a thunder and lightning routine, Tiki may take a hit in my rankings. For now I have Tiki Ranked #5...which is three spots lower than where he finished in '04. In the '04 preseason I had Tiki ranked significantly lower for the same reasons mentioned in the Jordan response below.

Lee Suggs - Could not disagree with you more regarding Suggs vision.  I think he has very poor vision and is mediocre at best.  Droughans is the same.

The vision comment was based on what I saw at the end of last season, not on his entire career. Suggs looked very much like a rookie earlier in his career...way too undecisive and didn't seem to adapt to the speed of the NFL very well. Could those last three games be an anomaly? Sure, but at his current ranking/ADP the risk is very much worth the reward given what I saw near the end of last season.

Lamont Jordan - Why does this guy get no love?  He an experience Ronnie Brown, big fast, and strong who can catch.  He probbaly has better cutting then Brown, but less vision.  There is no reason to think he isn't a top 15 guy under any scenario and I would put money he finishes in the top 10.

I put together a "risk factor" for each player and Jordan's is higher than most for two major reasons: a) he's never been the primary ball carrier for an entire season and b) It's not clear how much Norv is going to use him. If Jordan is used in a workhorse fashion and if he stays healthy I agree with you that Jordan has an excellent chance to finish top 10 in this scoring format. He drops a bit in ppr leagues.You should check out the WR critique, they were my favorite group this year and I saw much greater variance in my rankings. I've already tweeked my rankings a bit since I put these critiques out, but all of the players I mentioned in the critiques still have a large variance.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Your projections ARE GOING TO BE WRONG. Your RBs in order from 4-8 are not an accurate assessment of where they will fall EOY - they ARE an accurate assessment of your confidence in each of them landing between 4-8 at year's end.

I disagree. Sure, that's how you project some players, but with a guy like Priest, who you personally have 9th, I doubt you're confident at all that he will be the 9th best RB.

Similarly, I have Tomlinson ranked #1, but I think he's a big underdog to finish as the #1 RB. (Even though he's an underdog to the field, however, I think he's a favorite over any other particular RB, which is why I have him ranked #1.)

An analogy that I use to compare this situation is this: when you're just off the green, use a putter instead of a wedge, because your worst putt from there is FAR better than your worst chip shot.Think worst case scenarios sometimes, to validate your choices.

 

[Fullback Fro]

Your projections ARE GOING TO BE WRONG. Your RBs in order from 4-8 are not an accurate assessment of where they will fall EOY - they ARE an accurate assessment of your confidence in each of them landing between 4-8 at year's end.

I disagree. Sure, that's how you project some players, but with a guy like Priest, who you personally have 9th, I doubt you're confident at all that he will be the 9th best RB.

Similarly, I have Tomlinson ranked #1, but I think he's a big underdog to finish as the #1 RB. (Even though he's an underdog to the field, however, I think he's a favorite over any other particular RB, which is why I have him ranked #1.)

An analogy that I use to compare this situation is this: when you're just off the green, use a putter instead of a wedge, because your worst putt from there is FAR better than your worst chip shot.Think worst case scenarios sometimes, to validate your choices.

woa ho ho, look at big brains, nice analogy