Mario Williams v Reggie Bush (1 Viewer)

[SSOG]

I'd hold off judgment on Whitner until the Bills defense gets healthy and comes together. Right now they play as well as they can with a slew of starters on IR.Wait until next year. The SS is a crucial position in Jauron's cover two. When his D gets healthy, I expect Whitner to be similar to Mike Brown and Jon Lynch.

It's definitely too early to pass judgement on any of these players. I was just saying, to this point, very few of the top picks are justifying their contracts. Teams that expect their draft picks to contribute early often have unrealistic expectations.

what is your recommendation then?Don't draft? Trade for a veteran? Pull a "Minnesota"?In FF, it's often wise to trade your picks, but in the NFL what are you going to get for a 1st? Perhaps Randy Moss or Welker, but there aren't too many of those players being shopped for picks. Usually, it's a backup QB made available, or a 30 year old RB.

You have to build through the draft. I'm not disparaging the draft, I'm just disparaging very high draft picks. Outside of the top 15 or so, the draft is the best way to build long-term talent. Teams that draft well do well. The problem is that salaries inside the top 15 or so (and especially in the top 5) are so disproportionately large compared to what you're getting. Anyone drafted in the top 5 is instantly among the highest paid players at his position, and by the time he's developed and is living up to his contract (if he ever does), his contract is up.If it were up to me, I would trade my very high draft picks every year, even if I didn't get fair value on the pick value chart. If I had a top-10 pick, I'd gladly send it packing in exchange for a pair of second rounders- or even better, a second rounder this year and a first rounder next.

I think you have done a good job of explaining the value aspect of the top 10 picks. While some of the posters are correct about Sims, Hawk or Whitner being solid, they are being paid to be outstanding and outstanding early. Most followers of the draft understand this and that's why every fan thinks his team should trade down. Even thought this is correct, no team should ever trade up or at least not at current value chart rates. The chart was devised when the gap was not as severe between the top and middle portions of the first round. Until a few teams violate the current chart rendering it useless, then with only a rare exception, a fan's favorite team is stuck with that top 5 and probably top 10 pick. The hope then is that the team gets it right or gets lucky.

There are three situations where I can see trading up into the top 10 or top 15- when you're trying to get a QB, when you're trying to get a CB, or when you're trying to get a LT. If you look at the population distributions, the overwhelming majority of starting LTs and CBs in the league were taken high in the draft. If you have a need at the position, your only options are really drafting high or going to free agency, and I'm not sure that free agency is any cheaper or less risky (and there's certainly less upside). The other situation I can see trading up is for a QB, because QBs have a much higher success rate when they come from the first round, and QB is probably the one position where you can least afford to have dead weight on your roster (meaning it's very, very important to maximize your chances of success if you want to have a winning franchise).

 

[Andy Dufresne]

All Mario. All day.

 

[Reaper]

<--- Mario Williams as a Jet

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Thanks Andy. Is it too early to mention Ron Dayne is outrushing Reggie Bush right now?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Thanks Andy. Is it too early to mention Ron Dayne is outrushing Reggie Bush right now?

And people wonder why some of us aren't too keen on Steve Slaton in the NFL.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

Thanks Andy. Is it too early to mention Ron Dayne is outrushing Reggie Bush right now?

Not to mention the Kolby Smiths and Ryan Grants who were late round picks, who are rushing better right now.And derrick Ward, from practice squad....to starter...to IR.....but still looked better then Bush ever has.

 

[corpcow]

This is why high draft picks are such a tempting liability. The names are all sexy, but the production usually isn't enough better to warrent the price increase. Looking at the top 10 picks, I don't think a single one is justifying his top-10 contract. Heck, even if you extend that to the top-20, Cutler and Ngata have both been worthwhile, but it's hard to get that excited about anyone else. I'd rather have 2 late firsts/early 2nds than a single top-10 pick (pick value chart be damned).

Sure, and this is exactly why it's so difficult to trade down. There's risk across the board, and maybe you have the potential for more reward early but you're also paying them a bit more. To give up a lot (two potential impact players at a lower salary) means you have to REALLY want the player available at that spot. Every year, people say that Team X "should have traded down", but that assumes they have someone who is a willing trade partner.

 

[corpcow]

This is why high draft picks are such a tempting liability. The names are all sexy, but the production usually isn't enough better to warrent the price increase. Looking at the top 10 picks, I don't think a single one is justifying his top-10 contract. Heck, even if you extend that to the top-20, Cutler and Ngata have both been worthwhile, but it's hard to get that excited about anyone else. I'd rather have 2 late firsts/early 2nds than a single top-10 pick (pick value chart be damned).

Sure, and this is exactly why it's so difficult to trade down. There's risk across the board, and maybe you have the potential for more reward early but you're also paying them a bit more. To give up a lot (two potential impact players at a lower salary) means you have to REALLY want the player available at that spot. Every year, people say that Team X "should have traded down", but that assumes they have someone who is a willing trade partner.

Oh, you guys already discussed this earlier in the thread. But I agree with that other analysis

 

[ATC1]

Figured I'd give it a few years to play out.

Then why do this now?

Taking the temperature of the pool for future reference.

I don't think there's much debate now.

Agreed, they both seem to be the best pick for their team.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Figured I'd give it a few years to play out.

Then why do this now?

Taking the temperature of the pool for future reference.

I don't think there's much debate now.

Agreed, they both seem to be the best pick for their team.

 

[ATC1]

Mario Williams was probably the best choice for the Texans, Reggie the best fit for a Sean Payton coached team.

 

[Reaper]

After people raved about the Jets draft......

B- from me....I wanted Mario or trade down... Everyone figured you could get decent OL later and turns out they could have had Justice / Mangold - Instead of Ferguson / Mangold and still added a stud like Ngata, Davis or Hawk with the 4th pick if they couldn't trade down.

I was all over that draft.... I was in love with Mario and Ngata. Wanted no part of Reggie.Brick has become solid but, Ngata or Mario would have changed a lot of things for the Jets.... Mangold was a no brainer - And it seems like great centers and guards can always be nabbed in the early 2nd..... Seems like a nice sweet spot for that position as teams don't want to draft them too high and then, there they are....Still sportin' the Mario as a Jet avatar.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Mario Williams was probably the best choice for the Texans, Reggie the best fit for a Sean Payton coached team.

Could you explain how a RB who averages 500 rushing yards a year is a "best fit" and good use of a #2 overall pick?

 

[ATC1]

Mario Williams was probably the best choice for the Texans, Reggie the best fit for a Sean Payton coached team.

Could you explain how a RB who averages 500 rushing yards a year is a "best fit" and good use of a #2 overall pick?

Because he averages 1050 yards, 7.5 TDs and 71 catches per year and fits into the offense's scheme. I do think he would have more, but he did have some trouble with that knee of his the past two seasons. Worth #2 overall? Probably not. Hey, we could have taken V. Young or M. Lienart. Maybe we should have taken Bick, but the Saints picked up a Tackle in the later rounds named J. Bushrod who backs up and injured probowl LT Jammal Brown. Saints are amoung the leagues best in rushing, passing and sacks given up. I think he is doing a good job. Don't see who I would have rather had at that spot other than Bush.

 

[Magnum]

Mario Williams was probably the best choice for the Texans, Reggie the best fit for a Sean Payton coached team.

Could you explain how a RB who averages 500 rushing yards a year is a "best fit" and good use of a #2 overall pick?

Because he averages 1050 yards, 7.5 TDs and 71 catches per year and fits into the offense's scheme. I do think he would have more, but he did have some trouble with that knee of his the past two seasons. Worth #2 overall? Probably not. Hey, we could have taken V. Young or M. Lienart. Maybe we should have taken Bick, but the Saints picked up a Tackle in the later rounds named J. Bushrod who backs up and injured probowl LT Jammal Brown. Saints are amoung the leagues best in rushing, passing and sacks given up. I think he is doing a good job. Don't see who I would have rather had at that spot other than Bush.

Has Bush been everything he was expected to be? Nope! But, some "haters" just can't grasp the fact that having Bush on the field opens up so many things on offense.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Mario Williams was probably the best choice for the Texans, Reggie the best fit for a Sean Payton coached team.

Could you explain how a RB who averages 500 rushing yards a year is a "best fit" and good use of a #2 overall pick?

Because he averages 1050 yards, 7.5 TDs and 71 catches per year and fits into the offense's scheme. I do think he would have more, but he did have some trouble with that knee of his the past two seasons. Worth #2 overall? Probably not. Hey, we could have taken V. Young or M. Lienart. Maybe we should have taken Bick, but the Saints picked up a Tackle in the later rounds named J. Bushrod who backs up and injured probowl LT Jammal Brown. Saints are amoung the leagues best in rushing, passing and sacks given up. I think he is doing a good job. Don't see who I would have rather had at that spot other than Bush.

Has Bush been everything he was expected to be? Nope! But, some "haters" just can't grasp the fact that having Bush on the field opens up so many things on offense.

I'm sure he has defensive coordinators staying up late gameplanning to stop his 3.7 YPC.

 

[ATC1]

Mario Williams was probably the best choice for the Texans, Reggie the best fit for a Sean Payton coached team.

Could you explain how a RB who averages 500 rushing yards a year is a "best fit" and good use of a #2 overall pick?

Because he averages 1050 yards, 7.5 TDs and 71 catches per year and fits into the offense's scheme. I do think he would have more, but he did have some trouble with that knee of his the past two seasons.

Worth #2 overall? Probably not. Hey, we could have taken V. Young or M. Lienart. Maybe we should have taken Bick, but the Saints picked up a Tackle in the later rounds named J. Bushrod who backs up and injured probowl LT Jammal Brown. Saints are amoung the leagues best in rushing, passing and sacks given up. I think he is doing a good job. Don't see who I would have rather had at that spot other than Bush.

Has Bush been everything he was expected to be? Nope! But, some "haters" just can't grasp the fact that having Bush on the field opens up so many things on offense.

I'm sure he has defensive coordinators staying up late gameplanning to stop his 3.7 YPC versitility in the saint's offense.

 

[Doug B]

I'm sure he has defensive coordinators staying up late gameplanning to stop his 3.7 YPC.

Believe it or not, you still see opposing players selling out to make sure Bush doesn't beat them. Not as much as in 2006, but enough.If what you're saying were totally true, Bush would be allowed to roam uncovered, and no one would adjust when he goes in motion. They'd just leave DEs and LBs on him in pass coverage.

 

[Mene]

You can't dispute Bush is versatile, and explosive... but I think it's a stretch to think that the Saints wouldn't have loved for that draft to have gone the other way. Bush is a toy, Mario is a force at one of the most important positions on the field. The Saints O would suffer far less from the loss of Bush, than the D (which is already pretty damn good) would gain from adding Mario.

 

[Magnum]

Mario Williams was probably the best choice for the Texans, Reggie the best fit for a Sean Payton coached team.

Could you explain how a RB who averages 500 rushing yards a year is a "best fit" and good use of a #2 overall pick?

Because he averages 1050 yards, 7.5 TDs and 71 catches per year and fits into the offense's scheme. I do think he would have more, but he did have some trouble with that knee of his the past two seasons. Worth #2 overall? Probably not. Hey, we could have taken V. Young or M. Lienart. Maybe we should have taken Bick, but the Saints picked up a Tackle in the later rounds named J. Bushrod who backs up and injured probowl LT Jammal Brown. Saints are amoung the leagues best in rushing, passing and sacks given up. I think he is doing a good job. Don't see who I would have rather had at that spot other than Bush.

Has Bush been everything he was expected to be? Nope! But, some "haters" just can't grasp the fact that having Bush on the field opens up so many things on offense.

I'm sure he has defensive coordinators staying up late gameplanning to stop his 3.7 YPC.

Study up son. You've got quite a bit to learn.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

You can't dispute Bush is versatile, and explosive... but I think it's a stretch to think that the Saints wouldn't have loved for that draft to have gone the other way. Bush is a toy, Mario is a force at one of the most important positions on the field. The Saints O would suffer far less from the loss of Bush, than the D (which is already pretty damn good) would gain from adding Mario.

#2 overall pick for a glorified kick returner. It's funny how Ted Ginn gets all that hate for not living up to his draft position, but Bush gets a pass for being drafted even higher.