So you'd rather have Holt on your NFL team than Marshall? You should call Matt Millen and see if they're hiring ...
No, I'd rather have Marshall on my NFL team than Holt, because Marshall is 8 years younger. If, however, my team was playing in the Superbowl tomorrow, and all of my WRs died in a car wreck, and both Marshall and Holt were on the street... I'd pick up Holt over Marshall (assuming full health on both parts). I think Holt is a slightly better WR at this stage of their respective careers. It won't last for much longer, because Holt will keep aging and Marshall will keep developing, but as of right now? Yeah, I'd go with Holt.
I'm still amazed by this... the guy is leading the league in receptions despite playing in half the number of games of the rest of the league. Also amazed by his 90% catch rate - 18 catches in 20 targets.
SSOG, still think his targets will decrease?
Yes.
I honestly don't see how you can still justify this position.I won't question your other points of debate, you have a right to your opinion and your way of seeing things, and you almost always make very sound arguments.
But this, I just don't get.
It's simple, really. I hardly believe that this last game is representative of Denver's offense going forward. Jay Cutler attempted 50 passes. He played maybe a third of the game out of the Shotgun. There was very little of Denver's bread and butter- the rollouts, the bootlegs, the play action. If I don't think this game was representative of Denver's offense, then I'm going to naturally assume that any conclusions drawn from this game
may or may not be representative of Denver's offense going forward. I read a study at Football Outsiders on preseason projections that clashed with Week 1 results (i.e. a team expected to be a doormat that threw out a dominant performance, or vice versa), and the conclusion of the study was that, in terms of predictive power going forward, the best combination was around 90% of the preseason projection and about 10% of the single week results. One week is just far more likely to be an aberration than a sign of things to come. I try to apply this to my projections to avoid knee jerk reactions.Prior to the season, I was projecting 9.4 targets per game for Marshall, for 141 total. His 20 targets are already in the book, but I'm not going to jump off my 9.4 per game projection quite this quickly. 14 games @ 9.4 plus the 20 that he got yesterday takes us to 152 targets. That's my new projection for Marshall this season.
SSOG, I don't want to bust your chops because I think you are one of the better posters on here but I wonder if you don't have so much invested in this that it is hard to be objective?
Last season it was like 30 players who were better, many who were not even close in most people's minds. This season it is ten. It's a good ten, no doubt, but let me take a look at this:
"(Moss, Owens, Holt, Fitzgerald, Boldin, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, and Calvin Johnson, to quickly name 10 receivers I think are better right now)."
First, I think rankings for this will be different depending upon PPR or dynasty. In PPR I think Marshall is far and away better than most of these guys. In dynasty, he clearly has more future upside than most of them.
Okay, this explains a lot. I begin to understand now why everyone keeps jumping on me so quickly about my position.I say repeatedly in every thread about Brandon Marshall that I'm not talking about FANTASY wide receivers here, I'm talking about ACTUAL NFL RECEIVERS, WITH ACTUAL NFL PRODUCTION. I'm not saying that Marshall will not be one of the 10 highest scoring receivers in the NFL in terms of fantasy points (I think he's a near-mortal lock to finish in the fantasy top 10, fwiw). I'm saying that he is not one of the 10 best receivers in the NFL. I think there are at least 10 receivers who do a receiver's job better than Brandon Marshall.
If I were coaching an NFL team, and needed an NFL receiver to play one NFL game, and all of the NFL receivers were available, and I was rating them strictly on NFL ability, and I wanted to pick up an NFL receiver to start this NFL game that I was playing in the NFL on NFL weekend, then I would select 10 receivers before Brandon Marshall.
If I were coaching a fantasy team, and I needed a fantasy receiver to play one fantasy game, and all of the fantasy receivers were available, and I was rating them strictly on fantasy ability, and I wanted to pick up a fantasy receiver to start this fantasy game that I was playin in fantasy football, then Brandon Marshall would be in my top 5, no questions asked.
If you still want to disagree with the point I'm making, though, then please do. I just wanted to make sure we were both talking about the same thing, first.
Also, fwiw, I don't think it's that crazy to have him down a bit on the fantasy football lists, either. F&L, whose rankings I know you greatly respect, has Marshall as the #10 dynasty WR in the league, owing mostly to his high knucklehead factor (and, I suspect, his lowish projected TD totals for an elite WR).