Mathmatical evidence that Schottenheimer hurts the Chargers (1 Viewer)

[Hoss Bog]

This article on Protrade.com does an excellent job of breaking down some the big plays from each of the Divisonal Round games in terms of their impact on each team's probability of winning. Reading the article, one thing is clear to me: Marty Schottenheimer does not help his team win big games because of his poor decisions and lack of actual coaching. I'll use some of the analysis from the article to make my point:

1st quarter, 5:21, Tied at 0, Schottenheimer elects to go for it on 4th and 11 from the Patriots' 30 yard line.

SD's Win Probability if goes for it: 55%

SD's Win Probability if kicks FG: 58%

SD's Win Probability if punts: 57%

Impact (of decision) -3%

- In perhaps an attempt to shed the "too conservative in the playoffs" label, Marty makes a very curious call early in the game. Don't get us wrong - we think teams need to go for it more on 4th down, but 4th-and-11 is not one of those situations. Fourth downs of that distance can only be expected to be converted into first downs 20% of the time, while 48-yard field goals (which this would have been) are made in the NFL at a 63% clip.

4th quarter, 6:25, Marlon McCree intercepts Tom Brady, but fumbles on the return, which is recoverd by New England.

SD's Win Probability at start of play: 77%

SD's Win Probability after interception, but before fumble: 81%

SD's Win Probability after fumble: 71%

Impact (of fumble) -9%

- Good coaches would inform their players before the beginning of this play to knock down a pass because it is fourth down. Now let's give McCree a break for making the pick in the heat of the moment... at least he should have fallen on the ball, not tried to return it. Again, I blame the coaching here. Marty doesn't even call the plays, so the least he could do is give a little coach speak before each play, right?

4th quarter, 6:25, Schottenheimer challenges McCree's fumble

SD's Win Probability at start last drive (1:05 on clock): 9.2%

SD's Win Probability if they start the drive with 1:40 on clock : 12.3%

Impact (of lost time out) -3%

- Schottenheimer made a bad situation worse when he decided to challenge McCree's fumble. On replay, it was very clear the play was a fumble. The challenge had very little chance to succeed. It did cost the Chargers a timeout, though. In hindsight, the lost timeout was expensive. They most likely would have used the timeout on defense during the Pats' last drive, which would have left approximately 35 extra second on the clock for their last drive. Those 35 extra seconds were worth a 3% swing at the start of the drive. If you take it one step further and add those 35 seconds at the end of the drive, the Chargers' chances would have jumped from 32% to 43%.

I have heard a lot of talk about how Marty doesn't call the plays, but none of these examples have to do with the actual play calling.

I also thought it was interesting that Andy Reid's decision to punt on 4th-and-15 wasn't such a bad call...

4th quarter, 1:56, Andy Reid elects to punt on 4th-and-15 from the Philadelphia 39 yard line

Philadelphia's Win Probability if go for it: 17.6%%

Philadelphia's Win Probability if punt: 17.1%%

Impact (of decision) -0.5%

The author insists he should have gone for it, which I agree with, but I didn't realize that it really only changed the Eagles chances of winning by half of one percent.

 

[videoguy505]

[1st quarter, 5:21, Tied at 0, Schottenheimer elects to go for it on 4th and 11 from the Patriots' 30 yard line.

SD's Win Probability if goes for it: 55%

SD's Win Probability if kicks FG: 58%

SD's Win Probability if punts: 57%

Impact (of decision) -3%

Yikes, they're better off punting from the opponent's 30 than going for it? It's a 2% change in Win Pct, and a punt would probably just be a 10 yard change in field position unless the punter could nail it in a corner and avoid a touchback.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I don't know how you blame Schottenheimer for the McCree fumble. Every DB has been taught that in HS, college and the pros. McCree was lauded as the smartest DB in the world yesterday, so surely he knew what to do. He just made a bad decision that 99% of the time you never, ever notice.

The Kaeding call was incredibly weird, but you have to imagine that Kaeding told Marty that he couldn't kick the FG from that far. Otherwise, why in the world would Schottenheimer go for it?

 

[Hoss Bog]

I don't know how you blame Schottenheimer for the McCree fumble. Every DB has been taught that in HS, college and the pros. McCree was lauded as the smartest DB in the world yesterday, so surely he knew what to do. He just made a bad decision that 99% of the time you never, ever notice.The Kaeding call was incredibly weird, but you have to imagine that Kaeding told Marty that he couldn't kick the FG from that far. Otherwise, why in the world would Schottenheimer go for it?

I agree with you that every DB should know that, but my point is more that Marty should have been yelling at the defense of the situation. McCree said after the game that he will try to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, no matter what. To me, that shows Marty hasn't drilled it into his head how to play in certain situations. Do you think any of the Patriots players would have made the same mistake?As for the Kaeding call, you make a good point that I hadn't thought about before. That being said, shouldn't the Chargers have tried at least one sideline play with 8 seconds to go if they know he has no chance to make the 54-yarder?

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

I can forgive McCree for the decision to try and return the interception. People are acting like the game was on ice if he had fallen down, but there were over 6 minutes left at that point. Credit Troy Brown for a tremendous play.

My problems with Marty:

1) All the stupid penalties. Not entirely his fault, but the coach has to take some of the blame for that lack of discipline and poise.

2) The absolutely doomed challenge.

3) Not running a quick sideline pass play with 8 seconds left. Going for a 54-yard FG without using your available time to try and get another 5-7 yards was incredible to me.

 

[Hoss Bog]

3) Not running a quick sideline pass play with 8 seconds left. Going for a 54-yard FG without using your available time to try and get another 5-7 yards was incredible to me.

I'm not sure if you looked at the article, but he talks about that as well...4th quarter, 0:08, Schottenheimer decides to kick the field goal with 8 seconds left

Commentary: San Diego could have run another offensive play before attempting a game-tying 54 yard field goal. The downside, of course, is that they could have been tackled in bounds, causing the clock to expire before the kick attempt. But 54 yards is a tough field goal in the NFL, so every yard is very valuable; running a 10-yard out to the sideline could have increased San Diego's chances significantly. An extra 8 yards before the attempt would have raised the Chargers' Win Probability from 23% to 32% (the chance to make the field goal would have gone from 48% to 67%).

 

[johnnycakes]

4th quarter, 6:25, Marlon McCree intercepts Tom Brady, but fumbles on the return, which is recoverd by New England.

SD's Win Probability at start of play: 77%

SD's Win Probability after interception, but before fumble: 81%

SD's Win Probability after fumble: 71%

Impact (of fumble) -9%

- Good coaches would inform their players before the beginning of this play to knock down a pass because it is fourth down. Now let's give McCree a break for making the pick in the heat of the moment... at least he should have fallen on the ball, not tried to return it. Again, I blame the coaching here. Marty doesn't even call the plays, so the least he could do is give a little coach speak before each play, right?

harumph. I had said a very similar thing in another thread and this is the response I got:

Was Marty supposed to tell Eric Parker "Don't drop passes or punts today"? Should he have told his team "Getting stupid personal foul penalites is bad" in his pregame speech? I don't think this loss is on Marty, in my opinion, as painful a loss as it was. That said, I'm pretty sure he's gone.

He should have told McCree "it's 4th down.. if they pass, just knock it down. Especially if they pass 30 yards down the field, but really, little upside to an INT even if it's a short 5-yard dump-off."

These guys have been playing football since 7th grade, McCree should have known better. There are things in this game you can blame on Marty. This is not one of them, IMO.

 

[Chase Stuart]

As for the Kaeding call, you make a good point that I hadn't thought about before. That being said, shouldn't the Chargers have tried at least one sideline play with 8 seconds to go if they know he has no chance to make the 54-yarder?

Absolutely not. My brother and I got into this discussion today.The Pats would probably line up 3 CBs on each sideline and 5 CBs on the goal line. The chance of an interception or a reception/tackle in bounds is way, way too high to take the chance at gaining 5-10 yards. I don't think you can take that risk.

 

[Chase Stuart]

3) Not running a quick sideline pass play with 8 seconds left. Going for a 54-yard FG without using your available time to try and get another 5-7 yards was incredible to me.

Pretty sure Marv Levy opted against doing this same thing in the Norwood Super Bowl. Sure it was a few yards closer, but he was a worse kicker.I repeat, there's no way you can go for it there. Too many bad things can happen. Have to give yourself a chance to tie the game with that FG.

 

[Pipes]

3) Not running a quick sideline pass play with 8 seconds left. Going for a 54-yard FG without using your available time to try and get another 5-7 yards was incredible to me.

Pretty sure Marv Levy opted against doing this same thing in the Norwood Super Bowl. Sure it was a few yards closer, but he was a worse kicker.I repeat, there's no way you can go for it there. Too many bad things can happen. Have to give yourself a chance to tie the game with that FG.

No doubt. I can't believe people honestly think the Patriots D, coached by the smartest coach in the game, would've allowed the Chargers to complete that sort of pass.

 

[Hoss Bog]

Pretty sure Marv Levy opted against doing this same thing in the Norwood Super Bowl. Sure it was a few yards closer, but he was a worse kicker.I repeat, there's no way you can go for it there. Too many bad things can happen. Have to give yourself a chance to tie the game with that FG.

No doubt. I can't believe people honestly think the Patriots D, coached by the smartest coach in the game, would've allowed the Chargers to complete that sort of pass.

The Patriots D, coached by the smartest coach in the game, just allowed a quarterback (playing in the first playoff game of his career) to go 40 yards with no time outs in about 50 seconds to put the Chargers within field goal range. Don't act like it was out of the question.

 

[DropKick]

1st quarter, 5:21, Tied at 0, Schottenheimer elects to go for it on 4th and 11 from the Patriots' 30 yard line.

SD's Win Probability if goes for it: 55%

SD's Win Probability if kicks FG: 58%

SD's Win Probability if punts: 57%

Impact (of decision) -3%

4th quarter, 6:25, Marlon McCree intercepts Tom Brady, but fumbles on the return, which is recoverd by New England.

SD's Win Probability at start of play: 77%

SD's Win Probability after interception, but before fumble: 81%

SD's Win Probability after fumble: 71%

Impact (of fumble) -9%

I also thought it was interesting that Andy Reid's decision to punt on 4th-and-15 wasn't such a bad call...

4th quarter, 1:56, Andy Reid elects to punt on 4th-and-15 from the Philadelphia 39 yard line

Philadelphia's Win Probability if go for it: 17.6%%

Philadelphia's Win Probability if punt: 17.1%%

Impact (of decision) -0.5%

The author insists he should have gone for it, which I agree with, but I didn't realize that it really only changed the Eagles chances of winning by half of one percent.

No, I didn't read the article but how can one say - with any degree of certainty - that you have a 57% of winning if you punt from the 30 in the first quarter of a scoreless game?You can't seriously blame the coaching staff on that interception turned fumble? Major, major reach.

An almost 1 in 5 shot of WINNING when you punt with 1:56 to go? If the other team simply kneels down, you won't get the ball back until there is less than a mnute with no time outs. Then, you need a FG just to get to OT, where you have a 50% chance.

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

3) Not running a quick sideline pass play with 8 seconds left. Going for a 54-yard FG without using your available time to try and get another 5-7 yards was incredible to me.

Pretty sure Marv Levy opted against doing this same thing in the Norwood Super Bowl. Sure it was a few yards closer, but he was a worse kicker.I repeat, there's no way you can go for it there. Too many bad things can happen. Have to give yourself a chance to tie the game with that FG.

No doubt. I can't believe people honestly think the Patriots D, coached by the smartest coach in the game, would've allowed the Chargers to complete that sort of pass.

If the coverage is great you simply throw it away and kick the field goal anyway. In my opinion, it was worth trying to do. You really think LT or Gates split wide would have no chance at all to catch it and scurry out of bounds? I'm sorry, but I have to disagree with that. I see three outcomes:1) You complete it, gain a few yards (say 5) and significantly improve Kaeding's chances.2) You see the Pats D is all over it and throw it away, leaving yourself 2 or 3 seconds to kick the 54-yarder.3) You get picked or get tackled in bounds. In my opinion the likelihood of either happening is fairly remote provided you execute the play properly.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I also thought it was interesting that Andy Reid's decision to punt on 4th-and-15 wasn't such a bad call...

4th quarter, 1:56, Andy Reid elects to punt on 4th-and-15 from the Philadelphia 39 yard line

Philadelphia's Win Probability if go for it: 17.6%%

Philadelphia's Win Probability if punt: 17.1%%

Impact (of decision) -0.5%

The author insists he should have gone for it, which I agree with, but I didn't realize that it really only changed the Eagles chances of winning by half of one percent.

Let me know how he modeled the Philadelphia defense's inability to stop Deuce McAllister and their physical tiredness. I'm sure that's in the formula.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Why do people expect Shotty to remind DB's of fundamantal football logic before every play?

 

[Koya]

24-21

All the mathmatical evidence you need.

 

[Jous]

I didn't read every response here, but I will say that Reid's decision to punt WAS as bad as everyone was saying, and possibly even worse. Don't look at random numbers but rather think of it this way...

Eagles offense was playing better than the Eagles defense.

The game is on the line either way.

By going for it, , Reid tells his good-performing offense that they just need to make ONE play to stay in the game.

By punting, Reid is telling his average playing defense that they need to make THREE plays to stay in the game (one Saint first down would end it)

That's all you need to know. Bad decision to punt.

 

[redman]

I don't know how you blame Schottenheimer for the McCree fumble. Every DB has been taught that in HS, college and the pros. McCree was lauded as the smartest DB in the world yesterday, so surely he knew what to do. He just made a bad decision that 99% of the time you never, ever notice.The Kaeding call was incredibly weird, but you have to imagine that Kaeding told Marty that he couldn't kick the FG from that far. Otherwise, why in the world would Schottenheimer go for it?

I agree with you that every DB should know that, but my point is more that Marty should have been yelling at the defense of the situation. McCree said after the game that he will try to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, no matter what. To me, that shows Marty hasn't drilled it into his head how to play in certain situations. Do you think any of the Patriots players would have made the same mistake?As for the Kaeding call, you make a good point that I hadn't thought about before. That being said, shouldn't the Chargers have tried at least one sideline play with 8 seconds to go if they know he has no chance to make the 54-yarder?

This strikes me as nit-picking. Coaches don't micromanage to the degree that you're talking about. Anyway, how do you know he didn't say that? Just based upon the result? Do you blame him for the WR's drops because he wasn't yelling "Hold onto the ball!"? It was an unlucky play by a player who was being aggressive. Ideally, he just falls down after catching it, but that didn't happen. The other points, I can buy, but not this one.

 

[parasaurolophus]

3) Not running a quick sideline pass play with 8 seconds left. Going for a 54-yard FG without using your available time to try and get another 5-7 yards was incredible to me.

Pretty sure Marv Levy opted against doing this same thing in the Norwood Super Bowl. Sure it was a few yards closer, but he was a worse kicker.I repeat, there's no way you can go for it there. Too many bad things can happen. Have to give yourself a chance to tie the game with that FG.

No doubt. I can't believe people honestly think the Patriots D, coached by the smartest coach in the game, would've allowed the Chargers to complete that sort of pass.

I would have called a play that rolled rivers out immediately. He can either hit an open defender for a 5 yard pass, or he could have chucked it 50 feet out of bounds. Very little risk involved in such a play. Hell they could have had LT play QB and immediately rolled him out, if they really did have 3 cbs on each sideline and 5 on the goal line(which is all 11 defenders), that doesnt leave too many guys to stop LT running out of bounds 4 yards past the line of scrimmage.

 

[tombonneau]

I'm not sure why ever is on Marty for challenging that play and losing a timeout. It was hardly game-changing as he would have just pointlessly burned it on something else instead.

 

[Hoss Bog]

I agree with you that every DB should know that, but my point is more that Marty should have been yelling at the defense of the situation. McCree said after the game that he will try to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, no matter what. To me, that shows Marty hasn't drilled it into his head how to play in certain situations. Do you think any of the Patriots players would have made the same mistake?

This strikes me as nit-picking. Coaches don't micromanage to the degree that you're talking about. Anyway, how do you know he didn't say that? Just based upon the result? Do you blame him for the WR's drops because he wasn't yelling "Hold onto the ball!"? It was an unlucky play by a player who was being aggressive. Ideally, he just falls down after catching it, but that didn't happen. The other points, I can buy, but not this one.

Fair enough, I can't sit here and argue that on that particular play, Marty was at fault for not informing the defense because for all I know, he did say something and McCree ignored it. The drops (or even the actual fumble) I don't take issue with because they are physical mistakes, not mental ones.My greater point is that the Chargers made numerous mental mistakes that may have cost them the game. Very well coached teams, like the Patriots for example, seem to limit those mistakes because of the smarts and discipline passed down to them by their coach. I just don't see it in big games with Marty at the helm.

 

[Hoss Bog]

Why do people expect Shotty to remind DB's of fundamantal football logic before every play?

Not every play... just 4th downs late in the 4th quarter when a trip to the conference championship may be on the line. What else does he do, other than call useless timeouts, on the sidelines? He doesn't call the plays, so he may as well coach. My guess is that saying something didn't even cross his mind, and for a head coach who is supposed to lead the a Superbowl, that is a problem to me. That being said, maybe he did say something to the defense, but I haven't read or seen anything that tells me that was the case.

 

[FlapJacks]

I don't know HTF tey came up with e numbers for Philly

regardless of field position, all NO needs is one 1st down and the game is over.

If Philly goes for it and fails, and then the D makes the stop -- NO is still looking at close to a 50 yarder or more. Would NO have the stones to kick it, or would they punt and likley put you at the 20?

 

[FlapJacks]

Why do people expect Shotty to remind DB's of fundamantal football logic before every play?

Not every play... just 4th downs late in the 4th quarter when a trip to the conference championship may be on the line. What else does he do, other than call useless timeouts, on the sidelines? He doesn't call the plays, so he may as well coach. My guess is that saying something didn't even cross his mind, and for a head coach who is supposed to lead the a Superbowl, that is a problem to me. That being said, maybe he did say something to the defense, but I haven't read or seen anything that tells me that was the case.

 

[Bri]

if someone could predict winning they'd be rich not making a webpage with an article the probability of winning

 

[Hoss Bog]

I also thought it was interesting that Andy Reid's decision to punt on 4th-and-15 wasn't such a bad call...

4th quarter, 1:56, Andy Reid elects to punt on 4th-and-15 from the Philadelphia 39 yard line

Philadelphia's Win Probability if go for it: 17.6%%

Philadelphia's Win Probability if punt: 17.1%%

Impact (of decision) -0.5%

The author insists he should have gone for it, which I agree with, but I didn't realize that it really only changed the Eagles chances of winning by half of one percent.

Let me know how he modeled the Philadelphia defense's inability to stop Deuce McAllister and their physical tiredness. I'm sure that's in the formula.

Good point. I know from talking to the author that the model does not have the ability to account for in game success as a win probability factor. That being said, it does take into account over 500,000 NFL plays, including every play from the last six years when a team is punting the ball back to an opponent while down three points and with all their time outs left. I'm sure that defensive fatigue was factor in the past, much like it was last weekend, so in a way it does model for that.From Protrade.com: "During the test phase of Win Probability for both NFL football and NBA basketball, our model was accurate 96% of the time." I know from doing work with Protrade that their win probability stuff is used by ESPN for football and a number of regional Fox Sports networks for basketball, so I am confident that the model is pretty solid.