SSOG
Moderator
I'd been holding off on making this thread until I had him until all of the drafts where I wanted him (he's on all my teams but 1, where I'm going to let him slide for the sake of diversifying my rosters). I just grabbed him in the last league I was targetting him in, so here comes the thread.
First off, let's look at his expected projections. Keyshawn is currently being drafted as the #38 WR off the board, according to AntSports. The FBG Consensus has Johnson ranked as the 37th best WR (only Wimer has him in the top-30, as the #26 overall WR). LHUCKS actually called him *OVERRATED* at that spot. This, in my mind, is just insanity.
A History of Success:
In his 10-year career, he has finished as WR22, 23, 5, 12, 21, 28, 21, 53, 27, and 28. That's only ONCE in his entire career where he has failed to finish in the top 30- and that was the season where Tampa deactivated him for 6 games. Over the first 11 games of the season (the games when he was activated), he ranked as the #23 WR in the league. Pro-rate his numbers over that season and he'd have 72/960/5, which would have been good for the #19 finish.
Think about that for a second. 10 years in the league, 10 straight top-30 finishes. That's pretty impressive. It becomes even MORE impressive when you realize that he's put up those numbers for 3 different teams, under 4 different coaches.
A Career without injuries:
Aside from the 6 games he was deactivated in Tampa, there were 154 games that Keyshawn could have possibly appeared in. He has appeared in 151 of them. If you draft Keyshawn, you will get him for 16 games. At this point in time, that's as close to a certainty as there is in Fantasy Football. He's basically the Brett Favre of Wide Receivers.
A Favorable System:
A lot of people view Carolina as the Steve Smith show- a 1-receiver offense. This is not true at all. Carolina has had a lot of problems finding a reliable #2 WR, but when they've had one, they've used him.
Let's go back to 2003- the last time that Carolina had a quality WR2. Muhsin Muhammed was WR2 that season, and put up 54/837/3. That was good for a WR32 finish. There are two more facts to keep in mind about that. First- Muhammad did not have the pedigree of consistant success that Keyshawn Johnson has. Second- that was Delhomme's first year as a starter. He threw a mere 19 TDs that season. In the two seasons since, he has thrown 29 and 24 TDs. If even one or two of those extra TDs goes to the WR2, then Keyshawn's value will only be that much greater than Muhammad's was in 2003. There are definitely TDs to be had.
Ricky Proehl had 4 TDs last year in horribly limited action. I consider those TDs- and then some- as good as Keyshawn's. Pair that up with Muhsin's 2003 yardage, and we have the makings of a quality fantasy starter here.
A Favorable Quarterback:
Let's look some more at Muhammad's numbers. Muhammad has played 10 seasons in the NFL. In his rookie season, he (like many rookies) set a career-high YPC at 16.3 (25 receptions). I think he's demonstrated through his career that this was a fluke, and can be discounted.
Discounting his rookie year, Muhsin Muhammad has played 2 seasons with Jake Delhomme, and 7 seasons with other QBs. In his 7 other seasons, his average ypc was 12.45. His high was 13.8, and his low was 11.7 (which he reached 3 times in the 7 years).
In Muhsin Muhammad's two years with Jake Delhomme, he posted a 15.5 and 15.1 ypc. He did it against weak coverages (his 15.5 year was with Steve Smith as the #1), and he did it against extremely tough coverages (his 15.1 season was when Smith was hurt and he was the only WR of note on the roster). Maybe it's a result of the scheme, but to me it is *very clear* that playing with Jake Delhomme significantly and drastically increased Muhammad's ypc. I expect a similar result from Keyshawn Johnson, who has a career ypc of 13.1, and a high of 14.3 and 14.0 (both of which came in the last 4 seasons, so it's clear that he hasn't been losing much of a step). Even if you expect Johnson's reception total to fall, I don't think it is unreasonable at all to predict a huge jump in his yards per reception.
Thanks to a combination of those 4 factors (history of success, resistance to injury, favorable system, favorable QB), I think Keyshawn Johnson once again has one of the highest floors of any late WR in the game. He makes a phenominal WR3 or even an acceptable (if low-end) WR2 for players who focus on other positions early in the draft and are left scrambling for quality starters at WR later on. His ADP of 114 overall (WR38) means you can grab him incredibly cheaply and reap the value.
What about players who load up at WR early, though? If you put together a roster of Chad Johnson, Hines Ward, and Reggie Wayne, surely Keyshawn would never see the field, right? I mean, it doesn't matter if he has a high downside if that comes paired with a low upside. Surely, if you're loaded at WR, you're better off taking flyers on late-round WRs who could go off and become the next Santana Moss, right?
Well, sure- if you're loaded at WR, then you should be focusing on upside. The funny thing is, though... Keyshawn Johnson's got plenty of THAT, too!
Upside:
Blame the system, blame the scheme, blame the QBs, blame the supporting WRs... blame whoever you want for it, but there's one simple fact of life. For two straight seasons now, Carolina's WR1 has finished as the #1 Wide Receiver in all of fantasy football. This is a fact that quite simply cannot be ignored.
I said last season that there was no way both Muhammad and Steve Smith should be rated as low as they were. Either Muhammad was a stud WR, in which case he would finish the season in the top 10... or Carolina was the perfect situation, in which case Steve Smith would finish the season in the top 10. I think last year demonstrated perfectly which was the case. Carolina is a WR1's fantasy paradise.
The problem? Well, Keyshawn's not that WR1, and Carolina's WR1 numbers might be a bit more muted this year now that there's a real WR2 again...
... but what happens if Steve Smith gets hurt?
Steve Smith is one of the smallest WRs in the league. Not only is he very undersized, but he's also one of the best punt and kick returners in the NFL. Even if he doesn't return kicks, he gets the ball a ton- which gives opposing defenses plenty of chances to take a shot at him. Oh, and he's currently at this moment nursing a hamstring injury. If I had to bet that one WR wasn't going to make it through the season, Steve Smith would be pretty high up on that list.
If Steve Smith misses games due to injury, then Keyshawn Johnson becomes the de facto #1 WR, and the WR2 becomes... well, pretty much no one. Keyshawn would automatically step right into the absolute best fantasy situation in the NFL, and would become a dominant force for as long as Smith was out. The only thing that has REALLY changed with this roster since 2004 is Muhammad has been replaced with the (in my opinion) more talented Johnson. Colbert is still kicking around on the roster, and should still be every bit as ineffectual of a WR2 as he has been for two straight seasons now. Ricky Proehl is now out of town. Drew Carter has 5 career catches. The rest of the WR corps look like extras in a "Where's Waldo?" movie. I don't think it's any stretch of the imagination at all to say that, with Smith out, Keyshawn Johnson would be potentially the #1 WR in the NFL... or at worst a top-5 or even top-10 option.
How many WRs being drafted around Keyshawn Johnson carry that kind of upside? The three WRs taken immediately before and after Johnson are Dante Stallworth, Terry Glenn, Jerry Porter (ADP likely to fall now that he's sitting out demanding a trade), Braylon Edwards, Keenan McCardell, and Kevin Curtis. Do you think there's a chance in hell that any of those 6 players finish in the top-10 this season?
Conclusions:
Keyshawn Johnson has a high floor comparable to the Rod Smiths (ADP WR26, FBGs WR26) and Eddie Kennisons (ADP WR30, FBGs WR28) of the world. He has a ceiling higher than pretty much anyone. He would make for an acceptable WR2, a fantastic WR3, or even an upside-based flyer that you plan on parking on your bench. There is absolutely, positively NO WAY he should be ranked or drafted as low as he currently is. Just my humble opinion.
First off, let's look at his expected projections. Keyshawn is currently being drafted as the #38 WR off the board, according to AntSports. The FBG Consensus has Johnson ranked as the 37th best WR (only Wimer has him in the top-30, as the #26 overall WR). LHUCKS actually called him *OVERRATED* at that spot. This, in my mind, is just insanity.
A History of Success:
In his 10-year career, he has finished as WR22, 23, 5, 12, 21, 28, 21, 53, 27, and 28. That's only ONCE in his entire career where he has failed to finish in the top 30- and that was the season where Tampa deactivated him for 6 games. Over the first 11 games of the season (the games when he was activated), he ranked as the #23 WR in the league. Pro-rate his numbers over that season and he'd have 72/960/5, which would have been good for the #19 finish.
Think about that for a second. 10 years in the league, 10 straight top-30 finishes. That's pretty impressive. It becomes even MORE impressive when you realize that he's put up those numbers for 3 different teams, under 4 different coaches.
A Career without injuries:
Aside from the 6 games he was deactivated in Tampa, there were 154 games that Keyshawn could have possibly appeared in. He has appeared in 151 of them. If you draft Keyshawn, you will get him for 16 games. At this point in time, that's as close to a certainty as there is in Fantasy Football. He's basically the Brett Favre of Wide Receivers.
A Favorable System:
A lot of people view Carolina as the Steve Smith show- a 1-receiver offense. This is not true at all. Carolina has had a lot of problems finding a reliable #2 WR, but when they've had one, they've used him.
Let's go back to 2003- the last time that Carolina had a quality WR2. Muhsin Muhammed was WR2 that season, and put up 54/837/3. That was good for a WR32 finish. There are two more facts to keep in mind about that. First- Muhammad did not have the pedigree of consistant success that Keyshawn Johnson has. Second- that was Delhomme's first year as a starter. He threw a mere 19 TDs that season. In the two seasons since, he has thrown 29 and 24 TDs. If even one or two of those extra TDs goes to the WR2, then Keyshawn's value will only be that much greater than Muhammad's was in 2003. There are definitely TDs to be had.
Ricky Proehl had 4 TDs last year in horribly limited action. I consider those TDs- and then some- as good as Keyshawn's. Pair that up with Muhsin's 2003 yardage, and we have the makings of a quality fantasy starter here.
A Favorable Quarterback:
Let's look some more at Muhammad's numbers. Muhammad has played 10 seasons in the NFL. In his rookie season, he (like many rookies) set a career-high YPC at 16.3 (25 receptions). I think he's demonstrated through his career that this was a fluke, and can be discounted.
Discounting his rookie year, Muhsin Muhammad has played 2 seasons with Jake Delhomme, and 7 seasons with other QBs. In his 7 other seasons, his average ypc was 12.45. His high was 13.8, and his low was 11.7 (which he reached 3 times in the 7 years).
In Muhsin Muhammad's two years with Jake Delhomme, he posted a 15.5 and 15.1 ypc. He did it against weak coverages (his 15.5 year was with Steve Smith as the #1), and he did it against extremely tough coverages (his 15.1 season was when Smith was hurt and he was the only WR of note on the roster). Maybe it's a result of the scheme, but to me it is *very clear* that playing with Jake Delhomme significantly and drastically increased Muhammad's ypc. I expect a similar result from Keyshawn Johnson, who has a career ypc of 13.1, and a high of 14.3 and 14.0 (both of which came in the last 4 seasons, so it's clear that he hasn't been losing much of a step). Even if you expect Johnson's reception total to fall, I don't think it is unreasonable at all to predict a huge jump in his yards per reception.
Thanks to a combination of those 4 factors (history of success, resistance to injury, favorable system, favorable QB), I think Keyshawn Johnson once again has one of the highest floors of any late WR in the game. He makes a phenominal WR3 or even an acceptable (if low-end) WR2 for players who focus on other positions early in the draft and are left scrambling for quality starters at WR later on. His ADP of 114 overall (WR38) means you can grab him incredibly cheaply and reap the value.
What about players who load up at WR early, though? If you put together a roster of Chad Johnson, Hines Ward, and Reggie Wayne, surely Keyshawn would never see the field, right? I mean, it doesn't matter if he has a high downside if that comes paired with a low upside. Surely, if you're loaded at WR, you're better off taking flyers on late-round WRs who could go off and become the next Santana Moss, right?
Well, sure- if you're loaded at WR, then you should be focusing on upside. The funny thing is, though... Keyshawn Johnson's got plenty of THAT, too!
Upside:
Blame the system, blame the scheme, blame the QBs, blame the supporting WRs... blame whoever you want for it, but there's one simple fact of life. For two straight seasons now, Carolina's WR1 has finished as the #1 Wide Receiver in all of fantasy football. This is a fact that quite simply cannot be ignored.
I said last season that there was no way both Muhammad and Steve Smith should be rated as low as they were. Either Muhammad was a stud WR, in which case he would finish the season in the top 10... or Carolina was the perfect situation, in which case Steve Smith would finish the season in the top 10. I think last year demonstrated perfectly which was the case. Carolina is a WR1's fantasy paradise.
The problem? Well, Keyshawn's not that WR1, and Carolina's WR1 numbers might be a bit more muted this year now that there's a real WR2 again...
... but what happens if Steve Smith gets hurt?
Steve Smith is one of the smallest WRs in the league. Not only is he very undersized, but he's also one of the best punt and kick returners in the NFL. Even if he doesn't return kicks, he gets the ball a ton- which gives opposing defenses plenty of chances to take a shot at him. Oh, and he's currently at this moment nursing a hamstring injury. If I had to bet that one WR wasn't going to make it through the season, Steve Smith would be pretty high up on that list.
If Steve Smith misses games due to injury, then Keyshawn Johnson becomes the de facto #1 WR, and the WR2 becomes... well, pretty much no one. Keyshawn would automatically step right into the absolute best fantasy situation in the NFL, and would become a dominant force for as long as Smith was out. The only thing that has REALLY changed with this roster since 2004 is Muhammad has been replaced with the (in my opinion) more talented Johnson. Colbert is still kicking around on the roster, and should still be every bit as ineffectual of a WR2 as he has been for two straight seasons now. Ricky Proehl is now out of town. Drew Carter has 5 career catches. The rest of the WR corps look like extras in a "Where's Waldo?" movie. I don't think it's any stretch of the imagination at all to say that, with Smith out, Keyshawn Johnson would be potentially the #1 WR in the NFL... or at worst a top-5 or even top-10 option.
How many WRs being drafted around Keyshawn Johnson carry that kind of upside? The three WRs taken immediately before and after Johnson are Dante Stallworth, Terry Glenn, Jerry Porter (ADP likely to fall now that he's sitting out demanding a trade), Braylon Edwards, Keenan McCardell, and Kevin Curtis. Do you think there's a chance in hell that any of those 6 players finish in the top-10 this season?
Conclusions:
Keyshawn Johnson has a high floor comparable to the Rod Smiths (ADP WR26, FBGs WR26) and Eddie Kennisons (ADP WR30, FBGs WR28) of the world. He has a ceiling higher than pretty much anyone. He would make for an acceptable WR2, a fantastic WR3, or even an upside-based flyer that you plan on parking on your bench. There is absolutely, positively NO WAY he should be ranked or drafted as low as he currently is. Just my humble opinion.