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Miles Austin - Top 3-5 Upside? (2 Viewers)

Andy Herron said:
Proof-positive how so many are so blind and clueless on this board.
That's a rude thing for a staff member to say.
:thumbup: This coming from the guy who talked up Crayton as the Cowboys WR to own. That might just be the straw that broke the camels back with my allegiance to FBGs.
If you subscribed for perfection, you were bound to be disappointed.
Agreed. These guys are the best. Compare the advice here to anywhere else and it stands the test. And I'm just a poster and avid podcast listener.
Its not the advice that is at issue here.
 
'gonzobill5' date='Oct 26 2009, 10:22 PM' post='11024120']

Andy Herron said:
Proof-positive how so many are so blind and clueless on this board.
That's a rude thing for a staff member to say.
:goodposting: This coming from the guy who talked up Crayton as the Cowboys WR to own. That might just be the straw that broke the camels back with my allegiance to FBGs.
If you subscribed for perfection, you were bound to be disappointed.Agreed. These guys are the best. Compare the advice here to anywhere else and it stands the test. And I'm just a poster and avid podcast listener.
Its not the advice that is at issue here.
I misunderstood, thought it was a content issue.
 
Andy Herron said:
Proof-positive how so many are so blind and clueless on this board.
That's a rude thing for a staff member to say.
:hifive: This coming from the guy who talked up Crayton as the Cowboys WR to own. That might just be the straw that broke the camels back with my allegiance to FBGs.
In Andy's defense, he apologized for the comment right after. It would have been nice of you to include that quote with your post.Also I remember Andy being a proponent of the theory that Witten, Bennet and the running game would cause all of the other WRs, except maybe Roy Williams, to be too inconsistant to start each week. Austin was supposed to win the #2 WR job during camp and couldn't do it for whatever reason. Many guys grew concerned and backed off a bit to wait and see him take over the position during the season before making a decision.That being said Andy, like many of us Cowboy fans, had given alot of information on Miles Austin in the past and he recognized immediately that Austin should be picked up after his 250 yard receivig game. Blind and clueless is anyone that doesn't pick up a WR after a 10 reception 250 yard 2 TD game. I don't care who they play. Add to the fact that the QB is good and is dying for a go to WR, especially one with speed, and I too have to ask the question. What in the heck are you waiting for? What in the world are you wanting in your waiver wire fodder that says that performance is not enough?
 
That being said Andy, like many of us Cowboy fans, had given alot of information on Miles Austin in the past and he recognized immediately that Austin should be picked up after his 250 yard receivig game. Blind and clueless is anyone that doesn't pick up a WR after a 10 reception 250 yard 2 TD game. I don't care who they play.
Indeed, and I picked him up immediately afterwards. However the topic of this thread was this:
'Bob McGaw]why don't WRs break franchise records & put up 250 yard said:
Which is an entirely different beast than "Is Miles Austin worth picking up?", and was treated entirely differently by most of the so-called "clueless people" in this thread.Apparently you're clueless if you didn't(don't?) conclude that Miles Austin is on par with Larry Fitzgerald after 1 big game.
 
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His issue now is will he be shutdown as badly as TO was last year when teams started focusing on him. The element of surprise helped him go off as much as he did but he won't have that anymore. He's not a fluke and he is for real but he's not top 10 in my opinion. That's buying in too fast. You aren't elite until after you keep producing regardless of matchup and double teams. In addition, last year TO was shut down badly most of the year and I see no reason to believe that Austin could do better than TO did. TO only managed 1 fantasy game over 100 yards (not counting w17) and 1 fantasy game with multiple tds. I honestly think Austin's arrival helps Witten and the running game more than anything else. He could get some deep passes every now and then but he's not going to get the ball nearly as much week to week since the cowboys will likely spread the ball around and take advantage of the times when Austin is double teamed like with TO last year. The matchups for the cowboys going forward aren't very good so with the pressure on Romo, double teams on Austin, and more film on him to analyze all give you good reason to believe he won't remain hot for long.

 
tigerz said:
His issue now is will he be shutdown as badly as TO was last year when teams started focusing on him. The element of surprise helped him go off as much as he did but he won't have that anymore. He's not a fluke and he is for real but he's not top 10 in my opinion. That's buying in too fast. You aren't elite until after you keep producing regardless of matchup and double teams. In addition, last year TO was shut down badly most of the year and I see no reason to believe that Austin could do better than TO did. TO only managed 1 fantasy game over 100 yards (not counting w17) and 1 fantasy game with multiple tds. I honestly think Austin's arrival helps Witten and the running game more than anything else. He could get some deep passes every now and then but he's not going to get the ball nearly as much week to week since the cowboys will likely spread the ball around and take advantage of the times when Austin is double teamed like with TO last year. The matchups for the cowboys going forward aren't very good so with the pressure on Romo, double teams on Austin, and more film on him to analyze all give you good reason to believe he won't remain hot for long.
I think austin can be top 20, possibly better with upside.For perspective, Devin Hester currently at WR20 in FBG scoring (doesn't include MNF, not sure where desean jackson is relative to top 20?)... his season total, through six games with a bye, is 28-383-3. So he is averaging about 4.5 catches, 60+ yards and .5 TD per game.IMO, Austin is capable of putting up those kind of numbers.Those are far more modest than his recent outburst. Nobody could realistically expect him to continue his torrid, unsustainable pace of 200+ yards & 2 TDs per game in the past few weeks. But he doesn't need to be THAT good to be very, very good. As to TO, he may have just slowed down last season. He is about 35. He certainly did better in his first year in DAL, double teams notwithstanding. If Austin does become double-teamed more often (a distinct possibility - Austin is quickly looking like the Cowboys most explosive, dangerous and best WR), this could well help Romo, Witten, the other WRs and the running game. If opposing defenses don't put 8 in the box as often, Barber/Jones/Choice will be more effective. That could mean more sustained drives, and more opportunity for Austin to make catches. Also more red zone trips, and scoring opps. If the Cowboys gash opponents with the loosened up run defense, they might have some hard decisions to make about whether to provide over the top help, or cheat a safety up in run support. Of course ther is risk in being overly optimistic, but so is there with being overly conservative.I'm just advocating not basing a negative opinion on him PURELY on the basis that historically & statistically these few game outbursts are generally folowed by severe corrections and regressions to the mean.Take a look at his film, and weigh that evidence as well. If after that, some still come to a negative conclusion, we can agree to disagree. But if some aren't looking at his film, than any subsequent disagreement isn't even in the same conversation (regarding the scouting/observation-based side, at least).* Another factor could be that there are a historically high number of bad teams this season. Not sure where all these great DBs are going to be coming from that are going to cover Austin. For instance, if the Rams double-teamed Austin, I'm not really sure it would make that much of a difference. But I haven't looked at their specific schedule for the balance of the season, that is more a general comment about the lack of parity in the league this season (I think this week's slate of games tied for record of most games with 21 or 28 pt margin of victory?)...
 
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That being said Andy, like many of us Cowboy fans, had given alot of information on Miles Austin in the past and he recognized immediately that Austin should be picked up after his 250 yard receivig game. Blind and clueless is anyone that doesn't pick up a WR after a 10 reception 250 yard 2 TD game. I don't care who they play.
Indeed, and I picked him up immediately afterwards. However the topic of this thread was this:
'Bob McGaw]why don't WRs break franchise records & put up 250 yard said:
Which is an entirely different beast than "Is Miles Austin worth picking up?", and was treated entirely differently by most of the so-called "clueless people" in this thread.Apparently you're clueless if you didn't(don't?) conclude that Miles Austin is on par with Larry Fitzgerald after 1 big game.
Actually Andy's quote was "clueless people on this board" and not in this thread. That is what I was referring to. I could see where you might take that out of context. Also the Title of the thread is "Replying to Miles Austin One Week Fluke Proponents" so the I think you can safely pick up what I am talking about and who I am talking about.
 
Reacher, as a member of the FBG staff, even in his capacity as blogger, Andy had no business insulting board members. You can dig around his Cowboy threads and find him preferring Crayton, Hurd and Stanback to Austin at one time or another. A little ironic that he would toss out blind and clueless isn't it?

I am a Cowboy fan. I appreciate this site mostly for it's fascist board censorship and the efforts to keep the conversation civil, informative and constructive. Andy is the only member of this staff I have put on ignore (though I click through to his comments often). Had he not been quoted in this thread, I would have never noticed him being flat insulting to Dave and Joe's customers. It's one thing when we insult each other, but there is a higher standard for them, and he's apologized for being below that standard. Had you not defended his comments, I wouldn't have posted this. It should have stopped with his apology. So let's stop now. It was a mistake that didn't need your justification, right or wrong.

Back on topic. Bob, since you've commandeered the bandwagon I built a few years ago, I thought you might enjoy revisiting my Austin take from April of 06. (before the draft)

Miles Austin (Monmouth) - Incredibly productive at little Monmouth where he could literally dominate secondaries physically. Always double and triple teamed. Didn't matter. The ball is his-- 150 catches, 2800 yards, and 33 tds later. He's a workout warrior with great genetics. He's 6-2 and has played as heavy as 230. He slimmed down on the advice of scouts. Knocks against him are that he lacks quickness and doesn't block. He didn't run his best 40 (4.47) for the scouts, but that's still a lot of speed for a man his size, and he has been timed much faster. He has great hops, timing, body control, and uses his size to win the ball. A terrific speciman with natural athleticism to spare. Acrobatic catches were the norm week in and week out. Did slimming down to (215) solve the quickness issue? Who knows, but this guy is a playmaker who may translate much better than most think.
A few weeks later the thread is bumped because he went undrafted but signed with Dallas, and I proclaim TO unnecessary. I was Austin when Austin wasn't cool. I have a theory about what took so long that is a little hard to explain; and really three years isn't that long. It's just this particularly unique statistical explosion throws up a red flag about what's different now, than oh say, the beginning of the season? I'd try to explain my theory, but I don't have Magaw's energy for polemics. Maybe later, but it is a question worth pondering for future personnel stashing.
 
His issue now is will he be shutdown as badly as TO was last year when teams started focusing on him. The element of surprise helped him go off as much as he did but he won't have that anymore. He's not a fluke and he is for real but he's not top 10 in my opinion. That's buying in too fast. You aren't elite until after you keep producing regardless of matchup and double teams. In addition, last year TO was shut down badly most of the year and I see no reason to believe that Austin could do better than TO did. TO only managed 1 fantasy game over 100 yards (not counting w17) and 1 fantasy game with multiple tds. I honestly think Austin's arrival helps Witten and the running game more than anything else. He could get some deep passes every now and then but he's not going to get the ball nearly as much week to week since the cowboys will likely spread the ball around and take advantage of the times when Austin is double teamed like with TO last year. The matchups for the cowboys going forward aren't very good so with the pressure on Romo, double teams on Austin, and more film on him to analyze all give you good reason to believe he won't remain hot for long.
My only problem with your argument is that you say he's not elite but yet you seem to argue that opposing D's will defend him as if he is.Why would a team defend him like TO with a more proven Witten and a strong running game to contend with? The presence of Witten, Williams (who will still get some respect by the D) and the RB's should result in favorable coverage for Austin. Any team that can't overpower the Cowboys line with their d-line is going to have trouble covering Witten, Williams, Austin, the RB and maybe Crayton at the same time while bringing pressure from their LB's or DB's.If opposing D's gameplan to stop Austin and force Witten or Barber, Jones & Choice to beat them, I'd say he is an elite WR.I'd also add that Austin has some speed and quickness as well as being a bigger body. To outperform TO, Austin just needs to beat press coverage, something TO stopped being able to do. Strength combined with quickness is a good start to that end and Austin has both.
 
Reacher, as a member of the FBG staff, even in his capacity as blogger, Andy had no business insulting board members. You can dig around his Cowboy threads and find him preferring Crayton, Hurd and Stanback to Austin at one time or another. A little ironic that he would toss out blind and clueless isn't it?

I am a Cowboy fan. I appreciate this site mostly for it's fascist board censorship and the efforts to keep the conversation civil, informative and constructive. Andy is the only member of this staff I have put on ignore (though I click through to his comments often). Had he not been quoted in this thread, I would have never noticed him being flat insulting to Dave and Joe's customers. It's one thing when we insult each other, but there is a higher standard for them, and he's apologized for being below that standard. Had you not defended his comments, I wouldn't have posted this. It should have stopped with his apology. So let's stop now. It was a mistake that didn't need your justification, right or wrong.

Back on topic. Bob, since you've commandeered the bandwagon I built a few years ago, I thought you might enjoy revisiting my Austin take from April of 06. (before the draft)

Miles Austin (Monmouth) - Incredibly productive at little Monmouth where he could literally dominate secondaries physically. Always double and triple teamed. Didn't matter. The ball is his-- 150 catches, 2800 yards, and 33 tds later. He's a workout warrior with great genetics. He's 6-2 and has played as heavy as 230. He slimmed down on the advice of scouts. Knocks against him are that he lacks quickness and doesn't block. He didn't run his best 40 (4.47) for the scouts, but that's still a lot of speed for a man his size, and he has been timed much faster. He has great hops, timing, body control, and uses his size to win the ball. A terrific speciman with natural athleticism to spare. Acrobatic catches were the norm week in and week out. Did slimming down to (215) solve the quickness issue? Who knows, but this guy is a playmaker who may translate much better than most think.
A few weeks later the thread is bumped because he went undrafted but signed with Dallas, and I proclaim TO unnecessary. I was Austin when Austin wasn't cool. I have a theory about what took so long that is a little hard to explain; and really three years isn't that long. It's just this particularly unique statistical explosion throws up a red flag about what's different now, than oh say, the beginning of the season? I'd try to explain my theory, but I don't have Magaw's energy for polemics. Maybe later, but it is a question worth pondering for future personnel stashing.
From Scott Wright's Draft Countdown site (2006?), who also sounded prescient/prophetic (except for the not very quick, doesn't play as fast as he times and not much of a deep threat parts :thumbup: )...Wide Receiver Senior Monmouth Miles Austin

Height: 6-2 1/8 Weight: 215 40-Time: 4.47

Official Bio

Strengths:Has great size...Knows how to use his big frame...Tough and strong...Has good hands...Displays excellent balls skills...Great leaper...Is not afraid to work the middle of the field...Hard worker with top intangibles...Was dominant at his level.

Weaknesses:Did not play against elite competition...Is not very quick and doesn't play as fast as he times...Is not much of a deep threat...Is not a great blocker...Doesn't run great routes...Has some trouble off the line...Project who still needs some work.

Notes:Monmouth’s career leader in every receiving category, with 150 receptions, 2,867 yards and 33 touchdowns...Has ideal measurables and might make for a good possession receiver...On the rise and one of the top sleepers in this entire draft.

 
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typically quality and first rate research from my favorite, & imo the most articulate Cowboys commentator, blogger Rafael Vela (a shagadelic epic of romo's MOJO lost & regained)...

in a related vein, to kick off the requested thread re-title, and in anticipation of Austin's upcoming third start...

"Once is happenstance; twice is coincidence; three times is enemy action" - Auric Goldfinger (James Bond nemesis)

Maybe Austin POWERS his way further up the WR rankings (currently top 10 in a lot of leagues?) in his third start? :thumbup:

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2009/10/27/...gain-his-powers

Austin Helps Romo Regain His Powers

by Rafael Vela on Oct 27, 2009 9:34 PM CDT 31 comments

In his Monday column, my buddy Bob Sturm posed a question all Dallas fans have pondered the last year or so:

I think we can all agree [Romo] also once had a groove. In his first 25 or so games in the NFL, he was somewhere between amazing and unbelievable. Then, something happened where he hit adversity and we began to see the weaknesses in his game. And for the last 20 or so starts, he just has not been the same guy who seemed like he played the game with everything happening around him in slow motion. Was something wrong with him?

-- The Morning After: Cowboys 37, Falcons 21

I think I can answer that one. Something was wrong with Tony Romo-- he lost his mojo. He didn't have a number one receiving target.

In those first 25 games, where Romo was playing shagadelic football, he had at least one elite-performing wideout, whom he could trust. I dug out my trusty Scientific Football annuals and looked at the YPAs for receivers who had at least 100 attempts per season. These are regulars, the guys who saw at least half a dozen balls per game thrown their way.

2006

1.Lee Evans, Buffalo, 10.6

2.Terry Glenn, Dallas, 10.3

3.Chad Johnson, Cincinnati, 10.0

4.Marques Colston, New Orleans 9.8

5.Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis, 9.8

(That T.O. guy finished 22nd overall, at 8.0.)

2007

1.Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis, 10.6

2.Terrell Owens, Dallas, 9.7

3.Roddy White, Atlanta, 9,6

4.Jerricho Cotchery, N.Y. Jets, 9.6

5.Randy Moss, New England, 9.3

(Patrick Crayton had a strong 9.5 YPA but didn't have enough attempts to qualify. He also had a dismal 2.8 YPA against elite, red-level CBs, comparied to T.O.'s 9.4. Before I move to my main argument, consider what a healthy Glenn could have meant to the '07 team? Not enough has been written about what the team lost when his knee broke down in training camp that year.)

Now, let's consider what happened in those next 20 games, which coincide with opening day '08 through the Broncos game this year. Romo broke his pinkie, obviously, and lost three games. Even more important, he lost his number one. Roy Williams was imported from Detroit to take the role, but his heel injury took his game away. I've made the point in several other columns, but it bears repeating -- Williams had a 15.4 yards per reception average his first month with the team and shockingly bad 4.6 YPC after he developed plantar fasciitis.

And that T.O. fellow? He lost it, sometime in the fourth quarter of the week two Eagles game. He destroyed Philly's secondary that night but topped 80 yards in just three of his last fourteen games. His YPA dropped to 7.5, which put him in the bottom third of receivers who saw lots of passes.

Romo lost the elite receiving complement to Jason Witten, and his purple mojo flowed away. For the last two weeks, however, Miles Austin has played like Lance Alworth, a pantheon-level number 19. Austin's 16 catches and 421 yards look impressive. In YPA terms, they're just as good.

2009 to date

•Austin - 35 attempts, 21,completions, 502 yards, 14.3 YPA

•Wiliams - 30 attempts, 12 completions, 230 yards, 7.7 YPA

14.3 is off-the-charts good. Let me be the first to say, however, that it's premature to anoint Miles Austin. The league hasn't had a chance to start game planning to stop him. And he hasn't started a game in the division, where Corey Webster, Carlos Rogers and the Eagles pair of Asante Samuels and Sheldon Brown, all red-level corners in '08, await him. That said, even if Austin drops off a bit, he still could rank among the league leaders in YPA with consistent play.

I also think it's equally premature to put Roy Williams in the Joey Galloway, Cowboys-bust category. A 7.7 YPA isn't great, but it's better than T.O.'s 08 number and there's no reason to expect William's performance to slide any more. A modest improvement would give the '09 pair similar productivity to Glenn's and Owen's '06 numbers.

It's easy to whack at the draft value points lost on the Williams deal with Detroit, and consider what Dallas could have obtained besides. But if you're going to parse that trade, you have to include the value retained by the trade the Cowboys didn't make.

The Jets seriously considered signing Austin, a New Jersey guy, to an offer sheet which would have given the Cowboys New York's 2nd round pick in compensation. The Jets never made Austin an offer, in part because Dallas made it clear that they would do what was necessary to keep him.

Contemplate the damage that deal would have wreaked. The Jets picked 53rd overall, two spots behind Dallas' 2nd round selection. Recall that Dallas traded out of that spot, because all of their primary 2nd round targets were gone. If Dallas couldn't find value for one pick, what would they have done with two? And who could Dallas have pulled out of a subsequent round to match Austin's current production?

You can't judge trades strictly on draft points. You have to evaluate value to the position and to the team. Right now, I think that the value Dallas preserved by keeping Miles Austin outweighs any value the team lost obtaining Roy Williams. And that doesn't consider the value he's has added to his quarterback's game. A guy named Austin has helped restore Tony Romo's powers, and not a moment too soon.

Yeah, baby!

 
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Reacher, as a member of the FBG staff, even in his capacity as blogger, Andy had no business insulting board members. You can dig around his Cowboy threads and find him preferring Crayton, Hurd and Stanback to Austin at one time or another. A little ironic that he would toss out blind and clueless isn't it?

I am a Cowboy fan. I appreciate this site mostly for it's fascist board censorship and the efforts to keep the conversation civil, informative and constructive. Andy is the only member of this staff I have put on ignore (though I click through to his comments often). Had he not been quoted in this thread, I would have never noticed him being flat insulting to Dave and Joe's customers. It's one thing when we insult each other, but there is a higher standard for them, and he's apologized for being below that standard. Had you not defended his comments, I wouldn't have posted this. It should have stopped with his apology. So let's stop now. It was a mistake that didn't need your justification, right or wrong.
I agree that it should have stopped after his apology. What's his name posted a complaint about it after the apology and left it out of his quotes. I felt it was fair to include it. As a customer I happened to agree with the blind and clueless when it comes to some members of the board and was simply justifying my opinion. As a customer and not a staff member I am sure you are ok with that.

BTW I will also add that I too am sometimes blind and clueless when it comes to certain players.

Edited to add.

Sorry Bob Magaw. Excellent posts you are putting up about Austin.

 
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Reacher, as a member of the FBG staff, even in his capacity as blogger, Andy had no business insulting board members. You can dig around his Cowboy threads and find him preferring Crayton, Hurd and Stanback to Austin at one time or another. A little ironic that he would toss out blind and clueless isn't it?

I am a Cowboy fan. I appreciate this site mostly for it's fascist board censorship and the efforts to keep the conversation civil, informative and constructive. Andy is the only member of this staff I have put on ignore (though I click through to his comments often). Had he not been quoted in this thread, I would have never noticed him being flat insulting to Dave and Joe's customers. It's one thing when we insult each other, but there is a higher standard for them, and he's apologized for being below that standard. Had you not defended his comments, I wouldn't have posted this. It should have stopped with his apology. So let's stop now. It was a mistake that didn't need your justification, right or wrong.

Back on topic. Bob, since you've commandeered the bandwagon I built a few years ago, I thought you might enjoy revisiting my Austin take from April of 06. (before the draft)

Miles Austin (Monmouth) - Incredibly productive at little Monmouth where he could literally dominate secondaries physically. Always double and triple teamed. Didn't matter. The ball is his-- 150 catches, 2800 yards, and 33 tds later. He's a workout warrior with great genetics. He's 6-2 and has played as heavy as 230. He slimmed down on the advice of scouts. Knocks against him are that he lacks quickness and doesn't block. He didn't run his best 40 (4.47) for the scouts, but that's still a lot of speed for a man his size, and he has been timed much faster. He has great hops, timing, body control, and uses his size to win the ball. A terrific speciman with natural athleticism to spare. Acrobatic catches were the norm week in and week out. Did slimming down to (215) solve the quickness issue? Who knows, but this guy is a playmaker who may translate much better than most think.
A few weeks later the thread is bumped because he went undrafted but signed with Dallas, and I proclaim TO unnecessary. I was Austin when Austin wasn't cool. I have a theory about what took so long that is a little hard to explain; and really three years isn't that long. It's just this particularly unique statistical explosion throws up a red flag about what's different now, than oh say, the beginning of the season? I'd try to explain my theory, but I don't have Magaw's energy for polemics. Maybe later, but it is a question worth pondering for future personnel stashing.
Props but does pimping a player 3 years before he is viable in fantasy really a good thing in anything other than a really deep dynasty league? Just asking.
 
Mr. Magaw has written a novel in this thread. Very cool to see a staff member so involved in the discussion :goodposting:

Props to you, Bob Magaw.

 
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I really like Miles Austin, and I am a huge Cowboys fan. I will say that I think he will be a very productive receiver. However, it's a lot easier to be flying under the radar and have performances like he has had for the last 2 weeks. Now, once teams wake up, and start to review tape, and gameplan against him... then it becomes a much more difficult task. He is very skilled, and should continue to be productive... but it isn't like he will do this every week.

 
Reacher, as a member of the FBG staff, even in his capacity as blogger, Andy had no business insulting board members. You can dig around his Cowboy threads and find him preferring Crayton, Hurd and Stanback to Austin at one time or another. A little ironic that he would toss out blind and clueless isn't it?

I am a Cowboy fan. I appreciate this site mostly for it's fascist board censorship and the efforts to keep the conversation civil, informative and constructive. Andy is the only member of this staff I have put on ignore (though I click through to his comments often). Had he not been quoted in this thread, I would have never noticed him being flat insulting to Dave and Joe's customers. It's one thing when we insult each other, but there is a higher standard for them, and he's apologized for being below that standard. Had you not defended his comments, I wouldn't have posted this. It should have stopped with his apology. So let's stop now. It was a mistake that didn't need your justification, right or wrong.

Back on topic. Bob, since you've commandeered the bandwagon I built a few years ago, I thought you might enjoy revisiting my Austin take from April of 06. (before the draft)

Miles Austin (Monmouth) - Incredibly productive at little Monmouth where he could literally dominate secondaries physically. Always double and triple teamed. Didn't matter. The ball is his-- 150 catches, 2800 yards, and 33 tds later. He's a workout warrior with great genetics. He's 6-2 and has played as heavy as 230. He slimmed down on the advice of scouts. Knocks against him are that he lacks quickness and doesn't block. He didn't run his best 40 (4.47) for the scouts, but that's still a lot of speed for a man his size, and he has been timed much faster. He has great hops, timing, body control, and uses his size to win the ball. A terrific speciman with natural athleticism to spare. Acrobatic catches were the norm week in and week out. Did slimming down to (215) solve the quickness issue? Who knows, but this guy is a playmaker who may translate much better than most think.
A few weeks later the thread is bumped because he went undrafted but signed with Dallas, and I proclaim TO unnecessary. I was Austin when Austin wasn't cool. I have a theory about what took so long that is a little hard to explain; and really three years isn't that long. It's just this particularly unique statistical explosion throws up a red flag about what's different now, than oh say, the beginning of the season? I'd try to explain my theory, but I don't have Magaw's energy for polemics. Maybe later, but it is a question worth pondering for future personnel stashing.
Props but does pimping a player 3 years before he is viable in fantasy really a good thing in anything other than a really deep dynasty league? Just asking.
Well, if I may, I think that's pretty awesome. It obviously wouldn't help me since I play in redrafts, but for those in dynasty he was well ahead of the curve. If I had been around then, it may have tipped me off that in that I would have not been as surprised when he did break out in a redraft. I knew of him and heard from my friend that he was close to being a big part of the offense, I just didn't think it was this close to happening.Also, ESPN seems to be VERY high on him this week, as high as 5 in their rankings. Berry has him at 3 FWIW. I am having a difficult time trying to figure out if he is worth a start over guys like White, MSW. This guy has risen that far, that fast.

 
Was looking through some old Cowboy threads and found this

In april 2009 when the Jets are looking at signing Miles Austin away from Dallas, Tyrion calls him the next Jimmy Smith. Bankerguy... not so much.

I haven't seen him on the boards lately but that Tyrion guy knew what he was talking about. Just poking fun Bankerguy.
Ridgelake also was very high on Austin before it was trendy, in that thread, reading down a few posts...Just for the record, this wasn't even the first recent post about Austin's breakout*... there was some good information in there (also by Ridgelake, among others). I had a specific question related to his breakout (the former fluke, KC shoddy tackling title). It than spiralled into wider coverage. So although this offshoot is currently on the front pg, the earlier thread OP is more deserving of props for raising awareness first.

It was begun more in a... what do you think sense. Understandably, there was even more scepticism after one week than two. Opinions are still all over the place, but I'm also seeing less hesitation from some publications to highlight him prominently. If he continues to emerge, at some point, there will be tipping point from probablity - fluke to probability - something more (maybe much more).

I've sent out trade feelers to move him in two of three leagues, not because I'm anxious to move him, because I am a believer, but to see how many more are out there like me. Asking for a RB or high pick, and have gotten some very interesting initial offers. There is no doubt that while there may be more doubters (that he has elite potential, whether he can be a viable WR2 going forward is probably LESS controversial, but arguably still so), some are quite high on him.

* http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...hl=miles+austin

 
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I am trying to turn an Austin + a Caddy into a Fitzgerald (redraft). I think this is the week to trade away Austin plus something and get an upgrade. For people getting or keeping Austin, I think (with no founding evidence) that Romo is in love again. This time, on the field.

 
Mr. Magaw has written a novel in this thread. Very cool to see a staff member so involved in the discussion :rolleyes:

Props to you, Bob Magaw.
Thanx for overlooking the grammatical malfunctions.a few other possibly noteworthy things I neglected to mention earlier.

1 - I noticed something sort of subliminally in the ATL game, than (the beauty of DVRs), rewound and played it back 2-3 times to confirm it. It was on the drive in which Romo made the brilliant, whirling dervish, multiple sack evading TD pass to Crayton in the corner of the end zone. He caught a pass behind the CB and in front of the safety near the right hashmark, getting it to around the 15-20 yard line of the Falcons (off the top of my head, i'll confirm later*). It looked like as soon as he caught it, he nearly simultaneously secured it with his right hand while sweeping/swimming outward with his left arm. Even though it happened before the DB got there, they were closing, and I was impressed he had the presence of mind to try & fend off pesky arm tackles. He is doing the little things to maximize his RAC opps. I then remembered his multiple sideline plays (three times this season already?) where he spins out of the grasp of the CB/DB and gets a TD. I think it was there, too (at least on his second TD against ATL). That might indicate that he has something good WRs have. A combination of body control and field/sideline awareness. He senses what is going on around him, and that makes him more dangerous after the catch. And that could bode well for his future.

2 - He did have a rep for drops? But it is possible, compared to when he was previously getting on average a catch a game last year, he could gain confidence through reps and greater experience.

3 - An intangible, but his position coach (who commands a lot of respect) has exhorted him to not go Hollywood, and he seems to have taken it to heart. He seems like a humble kid, with an attitude conducive to further maturation and development.

* His two TDs occur at the 1:45 & 2:55 marks

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009102509/2...score#tab:watch

 
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Excellent thread OP - I am enjoying it immensely . . .

Austin owner here. I am cautiosuly optimistic that this continues. However, I think all of us (owners) are too high on him, and all non-Austin owners are too low on him . . . such is the nature of life

I LOVE underdog stories (Kurt Warner for example) . . .

 
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Does the board think SEA will be more concerned with game planning defensively against Austin or Roy Williams?

 
Does the board think SEA will be more concerned with game planning defensively against Austin or Roy Williams?
I can't see how any defensive coordinator in his right mind would be more concerned about an injured Williams over an exploding Austin.
 
That being said Andy, like many of us Cowboy fans, had given alot of information on Miles Austin in the past and he recognized immediately that Austin should be picked up after his 250 yard receivig game. Blind and clueless is anyone that doesn't pick up a WR after a 10 reception 250 yard 2 TD game. I don't care who they play.

I wonder what Roy Williams owners did.

I've jumped on the big game WR ever since Boldin. I say always take the chance.

But I've had a bad season filled with bad decisisions, doing things I don't ordinarily do.

So I drafted Roy W. thinking Romo had to throw to someone. And then Crayton had a great first game (so did Austin by the way) and I went with Crayton. After watching a few Cowboys games it looked to me like they were dedicated to Witten first, then the RB's. And so the Chiefs game wasn't notable so much that it was the Chiefs but a game that was close where the Cowboys had to keep throwing.

The Falcons have a great team and that was just a plain great effort from Austin.

Weird thing is I have always thought Austin was a promising WR and when he had that great game Week 1 I said 'yep, pick him up if he has one more decent game.'

I guess I just got tired of the Cowboys passing game and waiting for them to turn to the WR's. Just lost faith.

 
Would it kill you to write complete sentences with capitalization? Reading your posts are hard.
growing up, there was only one book in my house...the collected works of e.e. cummings...by not attending to caps or conventional punctuation, i can shunt more brain horsepower to pure football thinking...like, whether miles austin was a buy or not...
Good work on starting to write in complete sentences with capitalization. I bet that it has not even "shunted your brain horsepower for football thinking"!
 
Would it kill you to write complete sentences with capitalization? Reading your posts are hard.
growing up, there was only one book in my house...the collected works of e.e. cummings...by not attending to caps or conventional punctuation, i can shunt more brain horsepower to pure football thinking...like, whether miles austin was a buy or not...
Good work on starting to write in complete sentences with capitalization. I bet that it has not even "shunted your brain horsepower for football thinking"!
You don't know how lucky you are...When I started wrinting about biotech stocks at the Motley Fool in '99, I was spewing out material I read on molecular genetics without paragraph breaks. OUCH!* My idea was partly inspired by Cliff on Cheers. The more beer he drank, the smarter he got, because it killed the weak brain cells and left a noggin power packed with strong brain cells.
 
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Does the board think SEA will be more concerned with game planning defensively against Austin or Roy Williams?
I can't see how any defensive coordinator in his right mind would be more concerned about an injured Williams over an exploding Austin.
Agreed. Blind and clueless fans may be slow to react to events, but it's doubtful NFL staffs will make that mistake. I suspect stopping Austin looms large in Seattle's game plan. If they go to the film, and we know they do, it's obvious. He'll be doubled with a safety over the top, who will be instructed to aim up the field a couple yards should Miles catch another comeback on the sideline. I expect to see him make his patented turn and get blown up eventually. I doubt they see Roy as a problem necessitating special game planning. Why would they?
 
duaneok66 said:
Austin owner here. I am cautiosuly optimistic that this ocntinues. However, I think all of us (owners) are too high on him, and all non-Austin owners are too low on him . . . such is the nature of life
I think the Austin Miles naysayers are those that have a crappy record in their league and snubbed him because Dallas was on BYE after the KC game. These are the guys that are still carrying the likes of Chris Henry on their roster while being forced to start Santana Moss as well as either having Roy Williams or Patrick Crayton on their bench. The Miles owners are those that probably cut deadwood like Willie Parker, Derrick Ward or Michael Clayton, Justin Gage to be rewarded with a player that got them between 29.1 to 32.1 points as their WR2 and outperforming WR1s like Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald & Randy Moss. They took a chance and so far, it's paying off. Wasn't Colston an undrafted fantasy football player in his breakout year that gave his owners that grabbed him off the waiver wire the chance to win week after week? Austin fits the mold.
 
I wonder what Roy Williams owners did.

I've jumped on the big game WR ever since Boldin. I say always take the chance.

But I've had a bad season filled with bad decisisions, doing things I don't ordinarily do.

So I drafted Roy W. thinking Romo had to throw to someone. And then Crayton had a great first game (so did Austin by the way) and I went with Crayton. After watching a few Cowboys games it looked to me like they were dedicated to Witten first, then the RB's. And so the Chiefs game wasn't notable so much that it was the Chiefs but a game that was close where the Cowboys had to keep throwing.

The Falcons have a great team and that was just a plain great effort from Austin.

Weird thing is I have always thought Austin was a promising WR and when he had that great game Week 1 I said 'yep, pick him up if he has one more decent game.'

I guess I just got tired of the Cowboys passing game and waiting for them to turn to the WR's. Just lost faith.
I am with you. Not to the extent that I didn't pick him up after the KC game but I understand the frustration even though I do like giving the board a hard time about being blind to his potential. I have been an Austin fan since before last season but I had also grown a little cynical. He looked like he was going to break out last summer but he got a lingering knee injury on either the last or second last preseason game and with the whole fiasco that was Dallas's 2008 season he didn't break out. So I knew this was going to be his year and they were practically begging him to take over as the #2. What happens? He doesn't win the job! So I end up drafting Roy Williams in the league that I can actually get him in and just took a wait and see approach in others.

It cost me though. I end up getting Austin in every league but my favorite keeper league due to lack of cash to win the bid. :confused:

 
from the upcoming, to be posted ETTG column...

Miles Austin - Fact or Fluke-tion? On Sunday he faces a Seattle defense decimated with injury attrition in recent years, at every level. Pro Bowl DE Patrick Kerney and MLB Lofa Tatupu have missed as lot of time the past two seasons. WLB Leroy Hill and CB Marcus Trufant are about to return after long absences. Already a starting CB has been lost for the season, and the Seahawks defense has continued to be victimized by big plays, a chronic problem extending back deep into the Holmgren-era. By any measure, Austin’s 16-421-4 breakout in the past two games is historic, but it is unprecedented for an NFL WRs first two starts. On film, Austin flashes the physical traits, natural talent, athletic ability and well rounded receiving skills to be legit. He could be emerging like another low pedigree WR a few years ago, who also has a pretty good QB - Marques Colston. Joe Horn was another free agent WR with very modest and humble pedigree (UFA who only went to JC), after bouncing around with KC going on to become of of the best WRs in the league for the Saints in the half decade from 2000-2004. The league may be witnessing the birth of a star… sometimes missed by budding astronomers when scanning the NFL firmament, without the proper instruments (it is easy to be blinded by the light from all the other stars on the event horizon). Austin has already eclipsed the initial numbers of a pantheon of great Dallas WRs (Bob Hayes, Drew Pearson, Michael Irvin and TO, to name a few). Fans are hoping he doesn’t become a Super-Nova. If his star continues to shine as brightly, it may be advisable to wear sun block with a rating of SPF50 or better, when watching the Cowboys on TV the rest of the season.

* I would also be remiss to not mention that Austin will be harder to shut down because he can run all the routes. He is big enough to be fearless over the middle and on inside slants, and fast enough to break open outside and get free long. That makes him harder to defend, since he isn't a one dimensional threat.

 
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I think it's time to start thinking about nicknames, and I have the perfect one: Smiles Austin.

Anyone who saw this kid smiling on the sideline understands this, his smile is, well, it's huge. I just hope he doesn't start smiling on the field, because I don't think he can see when he smiles.

 
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I think it's time to start thinking about nicknames, and I have the perfect one: Smiles Austin.Anyone who saw this kid smiling on the sideline understands this, his smile is, well, it's huge. I just hope he doesn't start smiling on the field, because I don't think he can see when he smiles.
Miles Ausome
 
Does the board think SEA will be more concerned with game planning defensively against Austin or Roy Williams?
I can't see how any defensive coordinator in his right mind would be more concerned about an injured Williams over an exploding Austin.
Agreed. Blind and clueless fans may be slow to react to events, but it's doubtful NFL staffs will make that mistake. I suspect stopping Austin looms large in Seattle's game plan. If they go to the film, and we know they do, it's obvious. He'll be doubled with a safety over the top, who will be instructed to aim up the field a couple yards should Miles catch another comeback on the sideline. I expect to see him make his patented turn and get blown up eventually. I doubt they see Roy as a problem necessitating special game planning. Why would they?
I don't disagree but these same staffers also don't sit on their thumbs and surrender 5 more long gains after he's already caught a 50+ yarder for a score on his first catch earlier in the game. They make in game adjustments...and how did those contain Austin? Guys like Moss, Fitz and Wayne get the "stop at all costs" attention and they still manage to get single coverage at times. Austin will be OK because the Cowboys do have other viable options in the passing game and have a viable running game as well. No one has forgotten about Witten, Williams or BarberJonesChoice. Sure, no DB is going to be sleeping on him this week or next. But I can guarantee you that no Atl DB was sleeping on him last week either after they saw what he did in the KC game the week before. And there was tape from earlier in the year of him taking it long for the KC staff to be aware of too.If Austin was on an offense that had no other weapons, I'd say he'd be a prime candidate to get the "stop at all costs" treatment by default. But he's not, and he hasn't proven yet that stopping him is the key to beating the Cowboys. I think the gameplanning fear is a bit over-stated.
 
I think it's time to start thinking about nicknames, and I have the perfect one: Smiles Austin.Anyone who saw this kid smiling on the sideline understands this, his smile is, well, it's huge. I just hope he doesn't start smiling on the field, because I don't think he can see when he smiles.
Miles Ausome
WINNER!
Really? You like that one better than Smiles? Have you seen this guy smile? It's the perfect nickname, IMO. :suds: :sadyoupreferhisnicknametomine:
 
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I think it's time to start thinking about nicknames, and I have the perfect one: Smiles Austin.Anyone who saw this kid smiling on the sideline understands this, his smile is, well, it's huge. I just hope he doesn't start smiling on the field, because I don't think he can see when he smiles.
Miles Ausome
WINNER!
Really? You like that one better than Smiles? Have you seen this guy smile? It's the perfect nickname, IMO. :unsure: :sadyoupreferhisnicknametomine:
He does have a crazy smile. Don't feel bad, I appreciate you.Combine them into Smiles Ausome?
 
I think it's time to start thinking about nicknames, and I have the perfect one: Smiles Austin.Anyone who saw this kid smiling on the sideline understands this, his smile is, well, it's huge. I just hope he doesn't start smiling on the field, because I don't think he can see when he smiles.
Miles Ausome
WINNER!
Really? You like that one better than Smiles? Have you seen this guy smile? It's the perfect nickname, IMO. :angry: :sadyoupreferhisnicknametomine:
He does have a crazy smile. Don't feel bad, I appreciate you.Combine them into Smiles Ausome?
:unsure:
 
I think it's time to start thinking about nicknames, and I have the perfect one: Smiles Austin.

Anyone who saw this kid smiling on the sideline understands this, his smile is, well, it's huge. I just hope he doesn't start smiling on the field, because I don't think he can see when he smiles.
check out the end of the video
:lmao: :D and he was watching himself on the big TV in seattle, just wait until he does on the jerrytron :thumbup:

 
GordonGekko said:
I don't like to broach these kind of questions, but have you ever played organized football or played defense in organized football?Football is a team sport and each unit requires teamwork, but I think the pure nature of "teamwork" on a defense is very unique compared to offense. An offense knows what it's trying to do, it just doesn't know if it can execute. A defense is forced to make good guesses, educated guesses, based on tendencies and strengths and personnel and take solid calculated risks. A defense is required to be far more reactionary. A defense also cannot defend every situation and ever contingency. You are willing to give the O some advantage in A and B, if they can recognize it and exploit it, but you do it so you can maximize your strength in issues C, D, E, F, G and H. ( Or do you think teams challenging Chad Pennington to beat them with his 9th grader cheerleader's noodle arm happens for no reason at all?) I mean you do realize that in WW2, Hitler has to make certain concessions in his defense as he did not know where the Allies would land for D Day and that Rommel, in charge of preparations, had to make concessions on how to allocate his resources and manpower? They couldn't defend every contingency. Was Austin a world beater or did KC focus on stopping someone else with their personnel? You can have a breakdown in an offensive unit and still succeed. Harder, but possible. If your Oline sucks, you can still score and get yardage if your skill players are that much more talented. Hard to do consistently? Yes, very hard. Possible? Yes, very possible. It is much more harder to hide deficiencies in your team defense at this level. The secondary doesn't play in a vacuum. You could put Deion Sanders and Rod Woodson in their primes out there, along with Ronnie Lott and Darrell Green, and without a pass rush and excellent linebacker play, they will get burned and exposed too. No one plays so well if your defense is all over that field all day long. So the offense has an element in play as well. KC's O has just as much of a factor in the success of KC's D as any individual KC D unit. You see that every NFL team has some elite defensive players, but every year some defenses just can't hold it together. It's easy to say Darren Woodson and Gregg Williams are the only reason why that Saints D looks so much better. The reality is the Saints have picked up players to bolster the entire defensive unit. That Saint's O hammers the other teams D and doesn't leave the Saints D on the field forever. If you have a good defensive scheme, you are put in a position toA) Maximize your strengths as a player based on your individual talentB) Utilize those strengths in the right spot at the right time and make a play in a team conceptDid KC players ...1) Simply not have enough talent to stop the Cowboys offense, whether they were put in the best position to succeed or not2) Have the talent, but were not utilized correctly based on the overall defensive gameplan3) Or a combination of the twoMiles Austin is an elite player in my book when...1) He is the focal point of the Cowboys WR assault for the duration of 2 years2) He is the focal point of the opposing defense for receiving where they will scheme to stop him at the cost of allowing other positions/players to possibly beat the crap out of them for two years3) He shows consistency for 2 years ( proves he can produce even despite game planning against him, increased knowledge of his tendencies and strengths, adjusts to shifts in his coaches and fellow players, can make adjustments and counteradjustments through a slump period) 4) He is essentially Jack Bauer ( "They know he's coming. They plan to stop him. They want to stop him. But no matter what they do, he shows up and slaughters everyone in the room. He devastates inferior competition, he is at minimum at par against the top opposition brought against him. And he says, Dammit. A lot. " )5) There is obvious potential long term chemistry with the player/players most critical to his success ( In this case, his rapport with Romo. Romo goes down and what happens with Kitna? The elite make the most out of what's given, not just the most out of what is ideal ) I have a signed Patrick Jeffers football card you can have, PM me with your address and I'll put it in the mail tomorrow. GekkoPS Some of the other posters have a point. This is a written medium and you are appealing to a potential subscriber base, your display of grammar or lack of it is not good for credibility or professionalism, no offense intended. Would you hire a man who came into your company with unshined shoes and a limp handshake? I knew some people who would in life, they all died poor.
WARNING - No Miles Austin info contained herein. The first two points tangentially touch on football writing and forecasting matters. The latter two strictly address writing style (and how they bear on credibility and professionalism). If of no interest, please move along... 1 - Having previously played defense is largely irrelevant to doing our job. For instance, the body of work of staffers such as Jason Wood, Sigmund Bloom and Jene Bramel MUST stand on its own merits, regardless of what level of actual football playing they rose to. Either it subsequently proves accurate, insightful and helpful or it doesn't. There must have been many good scouts that didn't play (the late Joel Buschbaum made Steven Hawking look burly), and poor ones that did. Did Emmitt Smith's NFL tenure enable him to parse the NFL scene with crystalline lucidity and intelligibility? 2 - It is well and good to counsel wait and see for a few years. That is eminently sensible advice as far as it goes... but unfortunately that wouldn't be far in our capacity. We are in the prediction business. It wouldn't do for the National Weather Center to say... we don't have all the data in on that hurricane, sorry that it is an inherently non-linear event, and we will get back to you in a few weeks or a month. At times, events with massive repercussions can move across the fantasy football landscape about as fast as swiftly moving storm fronts. Dodds can't submit projections for this week's games in a few years. They would no doubt be extremely accurate, as well as totally useless. It might seem rash to make a hasty call, but it is incumbent on staffers to make SOME call, and it would be incompetent for us to make none. 3 - There might be some schools of literary criticism that take Hemingway to task for having so many periods, but wouldn't that be an incredibly superficial reading? By that measure, shouldn't Jacqueline Susan be accorded the greater stature as a more towering literary figure? So I'm not a Nobel Literature laureate like Hesse or Camus. It is a football information site. Even within that context, I think the boards are looser and more informal than the official content (in which I agree it would be sloppy to not employ conventional writing). 4 - I think a better metaphor for my writing style than your interview one (in which you graciously and politely said no offense before questioning my credibility and professionalism) would be another one within the scope of business. If you had been to a few previous firms, and they got your portfolio gutted, and the new one generated massive ROI, would you honestly care one wit if they went to work naked? :goodposting: * It seems short-sighted to only consider the negative possibility. Just within this thread, there have been more posters appreciative of the information, than pedantically expounding on grammar like a Catholic nun brandishing a ruler (no offense - I can joke about this because I had them... and God Bless them for helping me learn a lot, if not grammar evidently, lest I sound like an ingrate). That last remark, BTW, isn't addressed to any readers that restricted themselves to grammatical/puctuational criticism without exceeding that scope.
 
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When did this topic turn into a linguistic ****-waving contest?

I say then! I must implore you gentlemen to heretofore correspond in a private manner with respect to subjects that aren't germane to the topic at hand.

Tut-tut, perhaps we can put this boorishness behind us and return to discussion relating to the development of the WR in question.

:rolleyes:

 
In fairness, there have only been a couple posts of that nature out of about 150...

I didn't initiate the questions publically raised. But they were raised. PUBLICLY*.

* questioning my credibility/professionalism by PM, rather than publicly, obviously would have engendered a PM response (same as yours).

I did preface the post with the following qualifier, for the sake of thread continuity (that did kind of bring it to a screeching halt... thanx for the prompting... & I'm done talking about it, even if it is brought up again publically... I'll use the PM, regardless)... WARNING - No Miles Austin info contained herein. The first two points tangentially touch on football writing and forecasting matters. The latter two strictly address writing style (and how they bear on credibility and professionalism). If of no interest, please move along...

... back to Miles Austin arcana.

 
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