Don't mock Jeffers. He was a fantasy stud for a short time until he got hurt.
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Miles Austin - Top 3-5 Upside? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bob Magaw
- Start date
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Who said I was mocking Jeffers? Him and Buerlein won many a championships during that run. I just don't know if I expect it long term. I don't believe any undrafted WR has done this in the long term let alone the short term. If he keeps it up he is the exception not the rule.
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MCguidance
Footballguy
Colston is probably the closest thing at Round 7 pick 252.
Jeffers probably did win a championship for many folks but only one before he got hurt. He had a stretch from week 13 on in the '99 season that was just plain incredible. Every game was over 100 yards and at least 1 TD. Unfortunateyl he got hurt and that was it for him as a fantasy factor. He didn't play the 2000 season and had a short lived comeback in the 2001 season.Seems fitting that this should happen for the Cowboys since Romo is the most prolific undrafted QB to ever play.Jeffers lost his career due to injury. Are you saying because he is an undrafted free agent that Austin will do so as well?
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
No I'm just saying these things tend to trend toward the mean.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Joe Horn was a UFA (I don't think he matriculated beyond JUCO).
Didn't do much for KC, but one of best WRs in the NFL for half decade with the Saints (2000-2004?).
Breakouts are more likely to be sustained if WR in question has talent, a good QB throwing to him, and a screaming team need for that position (check on all three counts).
If the breakout continues, another analogy might be Chad Johnson's great second half in his first breakout season.
Didn't do much for KC, but one of best WRs in the NFL for half decade with the Saints (2000-2004?).
Breakouts are more likely to be sustained if WR in question has talent, a good QB throwing to him, and a screaming team need for that position (check on all three counts).
If the breakout continues, another analogy might be Chad Johnson's great second half in his first breakout season.
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packersfan
Footballguy
I won my league title and a lot of cash in 99 thanks to Jeffers' magical run at the end of that season. He was absolutely incredible. I'll always remember him fondly.
cstu
Footballguy
Technically, Horn was drafted but it was after a period where he was out of football and came back to play in the CFL. However, Horn was the first guy who came to mind when I tried to compare Miles to somebody.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Maybe a case of being wrong for the right reason...
Oops, thanx for the correction, CSTU.I looked at a site and saw JUCO so I must have jumped to that conclusion. At another site it said 5.3 ('96?).Chad Johnson & Steve Smith were JUCO (Santa Monica?)... Johnson ended up at Oregon or Oregon St. with T.J.Eric Swann (Cards DT had his career derailed by knee injury?) is one of the few NFL players I can think of off the top of my head that went directly to the pros with no collegiate experience at all on his resume (so routine in baseball and basketball... NFL has the three years rule).Broncos ILB D.J. Williams was reportedly the only prep Madden ever said could have skipped college and turned pro directly if it were allowable. Not sure I agree (though Madden was prescient in the sense that D.J. has been a star at every level, including as a Miami Hurricane between DEN and perennial prep power Concord De La Salle). I have heard that more often about Adrian Peterson.
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MCguidance
Footballguy
I'll agree about ADP since when I saw him as a frosh I thought he was ready. Unreal talent,Maybe a case of being wrong for the right reason...
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
The problem with the Joe Horn analogy is that Horn started producing the moment he changed teams. He had been stuck on a team that just wasn't the right fit for his style. (Plus, he was fighting for targets with Andre Rison, Tony Gonzalez, and Derrick Alexander.)
Austin, on the other hand, was on the same team for 3+ seasons and he couldn't beat out Sam Hurd or Patrick Crayton. He's been right under Wade Phillips and Jerry Jones' noses but they never smelled him.
Austin, on the other hand, was on the same team for 3+ seasons and he couldn't beat out Sam Hurd or Patrick Crayton. He's been right under Wade Phillips and Jerry Jones' noses but they never smelled him.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Good point.The analogy might break down there as not exact. But part of the point was that low pedigree WRs like Horn and Colston can come through huge at times, albeit rarely.It is a puzzler and head-scratcher why he couldn't beat out Crayton and Hurd earlier. But now that he has gotten his chance, like Horn, he is coming on like gangbusters (not sure how good Horn did in his first two starts, but we know it wasn't this good). Austin has had some injury issues which no doubt set him back. Also, when you aren't the starter, you don't get as many reps, so it is sort of like a self-fulfilling prophecy (don't get first team reps in practice, get battle-tested and sharpen/refine skills against other starters, not as much opportunity to be seen in that context by coaches, etc.).
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Reality is fine but those are the numbers that Greg Jennings and Randy Moss have been posting with the exception of a game or two here and and there all season. What's your point? Of course he isn't going to score 400+ yds, and 4 TDs every 2 weeks, no one can.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I've been a Miles Austin fan for awhile, even took him in the 2nd round of the rookie draft back in May/June so I felt there was upside once TO was gone.
Austin's problem so far in his career IMO has been his health. Last year he would make a sparkling 50 yd TD and then we wouldn't see him for a month. And with TO, then Roy, Witten, Crayton, guy was buried on the depth charts and then he would get hurt. Health is a major concer for this guy right now. How much can he handle? Do we have another Drew bennett situation on our hands?
I believe because its the 'Boys and because of the pressure they are under to make the playoffs this season that Austin will be asked to produce the rest of the year. I think most weeks he is likely double digits with 5/63 as one poster put it actually isn't that bad for his off weeks. There are about 8 weeks left and I think Austin can have 3-4 more 20+ performances this season, and the rest will likely be in that 10-15 range. He is absolutely a sell high right now because of the fact he has nowhere to go but down at this point.
But what can you get for him in redraft an dynasty? I do think he has some long term value with Dallas as they have spent a 1st on Roy, they have other needs, and I can't see them drafting a WR in the 1st next season...maybe the 3rd and that would be a project.
I see Dallas settling in with Austin and Roy as the 1-2 at WR, then Crayton in the slot where he excels, Witten at that point should be back to tearing up the underneath coverage, this is a fantastic find for Dallas and should Austin reamin healthy there is plenty of room for him to do well. But the idea that he can post 150 on a weekly basis is silly. Dallas is a power running team that can throw it when they want to as well. Romo had 3 TDs last week but if they could, Dallas would like to run the ball as much as possible.
Dallas is 4-2 right now, should go to 5-2 next week before they face Philly, and their season is going to come into view over the next 2-3 weeks, we'll find out if Dallas is going to make a push or not.
Austin's problem so far in his career IMO has been his health. Last year he would make a sparkling 50 yd TD and then we wouldn't see him for a month. And with TO, then Roy, Witten, Crayton, guy was buried on the depth charts and then he would get hurt. Health is a major concer for this guy right now. How much can he handle? Do we have another Drew bennett situation on our hands?
I believe because its the 'Boys and because of the pressure they are under to make the playoffs this season that Austin will be asked to produce the rest of the year. I think most weeks he is likely double digits with 5/63 as one poster put it actually isn't that bad for his off weeks. There are about 8 weeks left and I think Austin can have 3-4 more 20+ performances this season, and the rest will likely be in that 10-15 range. He is absolutely a sell high right now because of the fact he has nowhere to go but down at this point.
But what can you get for him in redraft an dynasty? I do think he has some long term value with Dallas as they have spent a 1st on Roy, they have other needs, and I can't see them drafting a WR in the 1st next season...maybe the 3rd and that would be a project.
I see Dallas settling in with Austin and Roy as the 1-2 at WR, then Crayton in the slot where he excels, Witten at that point should be back to tearing up the underneath coverage, this is a fantastic find for Dallas and should Austin reamin healthy there is plenty of room for him to do well. But the idea that he can post 150 on a weekly basis is silly. Dallas is a power running team that can throw it when they want to as well. Romo had 3 TDs last week but if they could, Dallas would like to run the ball as much as possible.
Dallas is 4-2 right now, should go to 5-2 next week before they face Philly, and their season is going to come into view over the next 2-3 weeks, we'll find out if Dallas is going to make a push or not.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Rod Smith wasn't drafted.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Nice catch.Wes Welker was also a UFA. Donald Driver and T.J. Houshmanzadeh were 7th rounders.Sometimes lightning strikes in unexpected places.Austin's value could go up if he finished in top 10-15... that would create a bigger pool of believers, and therefore wider range of future trade partners.
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Chunky Soup
Footballguy
What a start this guy has had. Amazing.
Roy Williams was dropped in my redraft league -- even with Austin's start, should this type of stuff be happening?
Roy Williams was dropped in my redraft league -- even with Austin's start, should this type of stuff be happening?
Yeah, I realize that, but what I'm predicting is that now that defenses will no longer be surprised that the cowboys' third option is being targetted so much, they will be putting some #1 corners on him and the 50-60 yard games will become the norm. I could be wrong, but that's my feeling. In fact, I'm not even convinced that he will be considered dallas' number one receiver all season.
Andy Herron
Footballguy
Drew Pearson was a UFA back in 1973 out of Tulsa, back when there was what... 12...15 rounds?That worked out pretty well.
thatguy
Footballguy
Rod Smith was very good for a long time...YR TM G RSH YD Y/R TD TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK VBD 1995 DEN 16 0 0 0.0 0 6 152 25.3 1 21 109 0 1996 DEN 10 1 1 1.0 0 16 237 14.8 2 36 89 0 1997 DEN 16 5 16 3.2 0 70 1180 16.9 12 192 3 76 1998 DEN 16 6 63 10.5 0 86 1222 14.2 6 165 12 41 1999 DEN 15 0 0 0.0 0 79 1020 12.9 4 126 29 6 2000 DEN 16 6 99 16.5 1 100 1602 16.0 8 224 4 114 2001 DEN 15 3 27 9.0 0 113 1343 11.9 11 203 4 74 2002 DEN 16 6 9 1.5 0 147 89 1027 11.5 5 134 22 13 2003 DEN 15 10 98 9.8 0 114 74 845 11.4 3 116 25 11 2004 DEN 16 5 33 6.6 0 129 79 1144 14.5 7 160 15 32 2005 DEN 16 1 7 7.0 0 126 85 1105 13.0 6 147 16 302006 DEN 16 1 -5 -5.0 0 94 52 512 9.8 3 69 61 0 TOT 183 44 348 7.9 1 610+ 849 11389 13.4 68 1593 397
Andy Herron
Footballguy
Here's a list of a few of the top undrafted active receivers.
Undrafted Active Receivers
Miles Austin, Cowboys
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 21-502 23.9 5
Career: 39-856 21.9 8
Wes Welker, New England
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 46-484 10.5 4
Career: 365-3,945 10.8 16
Davone Bess, Miami
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 26-188 7.2 0
Career: 80-742 9.3 1
Greg Camarillo, Miami
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 19-174 9.2 0
Career: 82-947 11.5 4
Nate Washington, Tennessee
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 18-150 8.3 3
Career: 122-1,855 15.2 15
ETA: Interesting thing to note is that it would appear that Bill Parcells had a hand in acquiring 3 of these 5, being Austin, Bess and Camarillo.
Undrafted Active Receivers
Miles Austin, Cowboys
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 21-502 23.9 5
Career: 39-856 21.9 8
Wes Welker, New England
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 46-484 10.5 4
Career: 365-3,945 10.8 16
Davone Bess, Miami
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 26-188 7.2 0
Career: 80-742 9.3 1
Greg Camarillo, Miami
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 19-174 9.2 0
Career: 82-947 11.5 4
Nate Washington, Tennessee
Year Rec-Yds Avg. TDs
2009: 18-150 8.3 3
Career: 122-1,855 15.2 15
ETA: Interesting thing to note is that it would appear that Bill Parcells had a hand in acquiring 3 of these 5, being Austin, Bess and Camarillo.
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ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Wasnt Camarillo drafted by the Chargers? Could be wrong, but I thought Miami signed him off of thier practice squad.
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
San Diego signed Camarillo as an undrafted free agent. He spent 1 1/2 seasons on their practice squad but was waived at the end of training camp in 2007. Miami subsequently signed him.
cowboyz
Footballguy
same with wes welkerother interesting factoids, six degrees of separation miles austin stylemiles austin went to the same high school as wayne chrebet who also played for parcells as an udfahe was also scouted by jim garrett, former cowboys scout and father of jason/john garrett.and the only people that showed up to his workouts were the cowboys and ray sherman, then titans wr coach, now cowboys wr coach.lastly, todd haley was instrumental in scouting miles austin, and of course gets to watch the emergence of him on the other side.it's like they all got together and said we're going to make miles austin a star
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Steady Mooobin
Footballguy
Hopefully that will play a big factor in his signing a fair deal.cowboyz said:
MCguidance
Footballguy
He is proving difficult to cover, two pass interference penalties, one inside the endzone. The second could have went for a big gain, not sure. But the guy looks good even if the points are not there in the first half.
A
awesomeness
Guest
The second shouldn't have been a pass interference on Trufant. Austin just ran right into him. Having said that Austin is still looking good.
Steady Mooobin
Footballguy
Well, well, well.
MCguidance
Footballguy
Kid's good.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Year in, year out, my failure to win a FF chamionship can be traced to one decision in each year.
This year it will be the decision to pass on Miles Austin.
This year it will be the decision to pass on Miles Austin.
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Steady Mooobin
Footballguy
:melodramatic:
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
highlights...
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009110103/2...wboys#tab:watch
A few notes -
1 - Austin got his despite Romo spreading it around. Though being just one of 10 Cowboys Romo threw to, he led the team in receptions and yards (5-61-1... Witten had four & Crayton had three catches respectively, and no other WR/TE had even 40 receiving yards), and one of the three TD receptions.
2 - The reception and yardage numbers were relatively muted compared to the previous two games, but if you projected even today's subdued box score and threw out the preceding games white hot numbers (including 400+ yards & 4 TDs), it would still yield about 80-1,000-16. Of course, a lot of mischief can be created by extrapolating from microscopic, vanishingly small data sets and sample sizes. In defense of this exercise, obviously we have nothing else to go by regarding his starting production BUT his three starts.
3 - A 16 receiving TD season projection does sound excessive on the surface. On the other hand, he has 5 in the past three games, so if he gets 11 in the next 13 games, that would be a 16 TDs per season pace (for context, I think Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson led the NFL in 2008 with 12 each). But for our purposes, if Austin does keep up the 80 receptions and 1,000 pace (based on today's reduced, more mortal, perhaps realistic numbers) and had EVEN 8 TD, I think that would project to better than top 20 numbers (? what it takes to be top 20 surely varies from season to season). Variously and alternatively, with 5 TDs in past three games, he would only need 3 TDs in next 13 games to get to 8 TDs... or if we throw out past two surreal games, he would need 7 TDs in next 15 games, worse than half as good as the TD "pace" he produced today? The point being, maybe where some are still talking about Austin as top 20 potential (and in some cases those are the people UPBEAT in their projections, not even referring to the still no doubt sceptics and pessimists), that could be closer to his FLOOR. What might his ceiling be? Nobody knows, probably not even the Cowboys and Austin himself. But with each passing game, his prospects are looking brighter, and his potential seems to get additional upticks.
4 - Another reason I would recommend to the attention of the board to suggest maybe he IS capable of sustaining some form of prolific TD production (barring injury)... he is not just a speed merchant, but has the size (6'3" & approx. 215 lbs) AND hops (think I heard he had the best VJ among his Combine's WR class?) and good hands (of late) to be a formidable red zone weapon. He is increasingly reminding me of a bigger Chad Johnson in terms of how fluid his movement skills are for a good-sized WR, as well as his mature and developed route running chops. Also, while Austin makes Romo more dangerous, a newly weaponized, more empowered Romo makes Austin more dangerous (if that isn't too tautological
).
5 - The Cowboys have been scoring more prolifically and (surprise, surprise) winning more in the past three games since Austin cracked the starting lineup. They scored 96 pts in first four games prior to Austin's momentous starting gig opportunity (24 PPG), and were 2-2 at that juncture. In the three games since that coincide with Austin's insertion into the starting lineup, they have scored 101 pts (nearly 34 PPG... 10 PPG better and would I think be among top five if not three teams in the league projected over the first half of the season) and are 3-0. Felix Jones was back today and looked good, and the defense seems to be playing better the past two games, but arguably Austin is the common denominator in the offense's recent scoring outburst/explosion leading to all THREE victories in the team's current win streak.
6 - What if defenses start paying more attention to Austin (bet on it). The more defenses focus on Austin, this will help Romo (who has proven in the past, when at his best, adept at taking what the defense gives him and getting the ball in the hands of the open receiver), the other WRs & TEs, the run game, etc. In theory, if because of this, more drives are sustained and they end up in the red zone at a more prolific rate, Austin could do about the same if he gets a slightly smaller piece of a bigger pie.
7 - On his first catch in the highlights above, Austin EXPLODED past SEA CB Ken Lucas to get inside position for the slant/skinny post on the left. He LOOKS like he will be problematic to jam due to his rare combination of size, strength, quickness, speed, athleticism, physicality, toughness, competitiveness, etc. Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are among the top WRs in the league not only because they are physical specimens and freakish athletes (that is a given), but also because of their intangibles (ie - competitiveness, will, desire to be great, work ethic, etc.). IF Austin has those kinds of intangibles (he has had to work hard just to get this far, so hopefully he won't quit working because he has "arrived"), he does have impressive physical tools and athletic gifts with which to work with and improve on.
8 - The Eagles MNF game in a week should be the best test yet how "for real" Austin is. Samuel and Brown are an above average CB tandem (Samuel league's INT leader over past few seasons?). That said, I wouldn't say the back half of the secondary is elite (especially absent the departed Brian Dawkins), and PHI could be vulnerable to the deep ball. That dovetails with Austin's big play ability, though as I have said elsewhere, imo the difficulty for CB/DBs tasked with covering Austin is complicated by his exceptional versatilty, and ability to run all the routes. He is much more than JUST a deep threat.
* Weekly Tale of the Tape...
Including his third start against the Seahawks, Austin has now historically scored a TD slightly better than every 5 X he catches the ball (9 career TDs on 44 career receptions). That jibes with his TD against SEA on 5 receptions.
He was also about 40+ yards per TD, but that went down today (3 yard TD). DeSean Jackson has put up some jaw-dropping distance TD numbers this season, but some of those are on runs and returns, I think... not sure what his RECEIVING TD average is. It still must be massive.
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009110103/2...wboys#tab:watch
A few notes -
1 - Austin got his despite Romo spreading it around. Though being just one of 10 Cowboys Romo threw to, he led the team in receptions and yards (5-61-1... Witten had four & Crayton had three catches respectively, and no other WR/TE had even 40 receiving yards), and one of the three TD receptions.
2 - The reception and yardage numbers were relatively muted compared to the previous two games, but if you projected even today's subdued box score and threw out the preceding games white hot numbers (including 400+ yards & 4 TDs), it would still yield about 80-1,000-16. Of course, a lot of mischief can be created by extrapolating from microscopic, vanishingly small data sets and sample sizes. In defense of this exercise, obviously we have nothing else to go by regarding his starting production BUT his three starts.
3 - A 16 receiving TD season projection does sound excessive on the surface. On the other hand, he has 5 in the past three games, so if he gets 11 in the next 13 games, that would be a 16 TDs per season pace (for context, I think Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson led the NFL in 2008 with 12 each). But for our purposes, if Austin does keep up the 80 receptions and 1,000 pace (based on today's reduced, more mortal, perhaps realistic numbers) and had EVEN 8 TD, I think that would project to better than top 20 numbers (? what it takes to be top 20 surely varies from season to season). Variously and alternatively, with 5 TDs in past three games, he would only need 3 TDs in next 13 games to get to 8 TDs... or if we throw out past two surreal games, he would need 7 TDs in next 15 games, worse than half as good as the TD "pace" he produced today? The point being, maybe where some are still talking about Austin as top 20 potential (and in some cases those are the people UPBEAT in their projections, not even referring to the still no doubt sceptics and pessimists), that could be closer to his FLOOR. What might his ceiling be? Nobody knows, probably not even the Cowboys and Austin himself. But with each passing game, his prospects are looking brighter, and his potential seems to get additional upticks.
4 - Another reason I would recommend to the attention of the board to suggest maybe he IS capable of sustaining some form of prolific TD production (barring injury)... he is not just a speed merchant, but has the size (6'3" & approx. 215 lbs) AND hops (think I heard he had the best VJ among his Combine's WR class?) and good hands (of late) to be a formidable red zone weapon. He is increasingly reminding me of a bigger Chad Johnson in terms of how fluid his movement skills are for a good-sized WR, as well as his mature and developed route running chops. Also, while Austin makes Romo more dangerous, a newly weaponized, more empowered Romo makes Austin more dangerous (if that isn't too tautological
).5 - The Cowboys have been scoring more prolifically and (surprise, surprise) winning more in the past three games since Austin cracked the starting lineup. They scored 96 pts in first four games prior to Austin's momentous starting gig opportunity (24 PPG), and were 2-2 at that juncture. In the three games since that coincide with Austin's insertion into the starting lineup, they have scored 101 pts (nearly 34 PPG... 10 PPG better and would I think be among top five if not three teams in the league projected over the first half of the season) and are 3-0. Felix Jones was back today and looked good, and the defense seems to be playing better the past two games, but arguably Austin is the common denominator in the offense's recent scoring outburst/explosion leading to all THREE victories in the team's current win streak.
6 - What if defenses start paying more attention to Austin (bet on it). The more defenses focus on Austin, this will help Romo (who has proven in the past, when at his best, adept at taking what the defense gives him and getting the ball in the hands of the open receiver), the other WRs & TEs, the run game, etc. In theory, if because of this, more drives are sustained and they end up in the red zone at a more prolific rate, Austin could do about the same if he gets a slightly smaller piece of a bigger pie.
7 - On his first catch in the highlights above, Austin EXPLODED past SEA CB Ken Lucas to get inside position for the slant/skinny post on the left. He LOOKS like he will be problematic to jam due to his rare combination of size, strength, quickness, speed, athleticism, physicality, toughness, competitiveness, etc. Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are among the top WRs in the league not only because they are physical specimens and freakish athletes (that is a given), but also because of their intangibles (ie - competitiveness, will, desire to be great, work ethic, etc.). IF Austin has those kinds of intangibles (he has had to work hard just to get this far, so hopefully he won't quit working because he has "arrived"), he does have impressive physical tools and athletic gifts with which to work with and improve on.
8 - The Eagles MNF game in a week should be the best test yet how "for real" Austin is. Samuel and Brown are an above average CB tandem (Samuel league's INT leader over past few seasons?). That said, I wouldn't say the back half of the secondary is elite (especially absent the departed Brian Dawkins), and PHI could be vulnerable to the deep ball. That dovetails with Austin's big play ability, though as I have said elsewhere, imo the difficulty for CB/DBs tasked with covering Austin is complicated by his exceptional versatilty, and ability to run all the routes. He is much more than JUST a deep threat.
* Weekly Tale of the Tape...
Including his third start against the Seahawks, Austin has now historically scored a TD slightly better than every 5 X he catches the ball (9 career TDs on 44 career receptions). That jibes with his TD against SEA on 5 receptions.
He was also about 40+ yards per TD, but that went down today (3 yard TD). DeSean Jackson has put up some jaw-dropping distance TD numbers this season, but some of those are on runs and returns, I think... not sure what his RECEIVING TD average is. It still must be massive.
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certificate
Footballguy
Miles Austin, earthbound.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Decelerating relative to previous two games (obvious to EVERYONE an impossibly unsustainable pace), but still stratospheric/orbital arc/trajectory.
Yup and he could have had 2 more TDs. He got tackled within 15 yards of the goaline on one play that he was close to breaking a tackle and he was interfered with on at lease one that should have been a TD.
certificate
Footballguy
Bob, were I an young NFL receiver coming off of a terrific 3 game stretch, there is no one I'd rather have representing me at my next contract negotiation
.Some of your comments about "a rare combination of size, strength, quickness, speed, athleticism, physicality, toughness, competitivenes, etc" are a little over the top though.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Thanx on the former, Certificate, and no worries on the latter (I'd definitely encourage different opinions, a dialogue instead of a monologue... I already know what I know). If I were to attempt to back up that seeming hyperbole... Austin is a listed 6'3" 215 lbs. with 4.4 speed (reportedly a 10.6 100 meters cited in the ESPN article below - humans with that size/speed combo don't grow on trees)... and he isn't just fast, but is extremely smooth and runs under control (out of control speed isn't much use). He also reportedely had best VJ for his position at the Combine. He is a legit athlete... in his Cowboys bio it stated he was a prep track star with one of the best javelin marks in NJ state region history. As far as the toughness/competitiveness part, I'm not implying he is in my mind proven here with the league's elite, just that he has flashed these traits/attributes in my mind with some of his plays where he showed good concentration in traffic, snatched ball from DB on a contested pass, broke tackles running after the catch, etc. I even left some stuff out here (though mentioned elsewhere in the thread)... he also shows exceptional body control, timing to high point the ball, and field/sideline awareness (look how many TDs he has scored on sideline out routes), not to mention natural and instinctive open field running skills.Bob, were I an young NFL receiver coming off of a terrific 3 game stretch, there is no one I'd rather have representing me at my next contract negotiation
* As an aside, interesting that Crayton has a punt return TD in the two games since he was demoted (and 3 TDs overall - same as Austin). Whether he has more energy (certainly Devin Hester was better as specialist before he became a starting WR) or is miffed at the demotion and has ratcheted up the intensity (if so I applaud his response to the challenge and ability to channell his disappointment towards a constructive purpose) or a combination, it has enabled the Cowboys to not only be improved on offense and defense, but all three phases (special teams, too), and been a contributing factor to their resurgence.
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NatronIsMean
Footballguy
Hahah - This is comedy. He came down to earth by scoring another TD and leading Dallas in receptions and yards. I love it.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Interesting pie chart of Romo's passing completion distribution in the past three games...
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives...ok-at-whos.html
* Nice background article from ESPN (his position coach, Ray Sherman, said that when he first saw Austin, he was reminded of the great Bills WR Andre Reed)...
http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/columns/s...&id=4607242
Updated: October 30, 2009, 12:11 PM ET
Austin's hard work is starting to pay off
By Tim MacMahon
ESPNDallas.com
Archive
IRVING, Texas -- The thought of an NFL career never crossed Miles Austin's mind until he made the 10-minute walk from Monmouth University to the Garrett backyard.
The teaching session with several other players from small colleges in the area took place the summer after Austin's sophomore year, when he scored a school-record 12 touchdowns. Jim Garrett was immediately impressed with Austin's size and speed. Austin's ability to track and adjust to the ball in the air, particularly on deep routes, excited the longtime Dallas Cowboys scout. Garrett had seen enough to tell the kid that he had pro potential after Austin caught the ball on a comeback route and pitter-pattered his feet inside the hedges that serve as a sideline in the backyard of the oceanside Jersey home.
"I was like, 'What's this old guy talking about?'" Austin said, flashing the toothy smile that rarely leaves his face.
How could Austin possibly picture himself as an NFL player? He didn't even see himself as a football player, period, until midway through his junior season at Garfield High School in Bergen County, N. J. Three-and-a-half years later, he's told he's a pro prospect? Please. That's almost as unbelievable as the historic breakout performances the past couple of games by an undrafted guy who spent the first few seasons of his career as a relatively anonymous member of America's Team.
"I actually hadn't heard of him or Monmouth College until I got here," Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said, laughing. "No, I really had heard of Monmouth."
Assistant coach/offensive coordinator Jason Garrett had definitely heard of Austin. Garrett's father had been singing the receiver's praises since the day they met in the backyard, the first of several appearances Austin made to work with the wise, intense old man.
Jason Garrett, Troy Aikman's former backup, returned to Valley Ranch as the offensive coordinator after Austin's rookie season, just before Phillips was hired as head coach. Jim Garrett, who retired in 2004, has lobbied his son to play Austin more often so frequently that it's become a running joke between father and son.
"I'd always kid him: 'You gotta play Austin more! You gotta play Austin more!'" Jim Garrett said over the phone from his Jersey home. "But I'll be honest with you, I never in 100 years could have predicted what he's done."
Yes, it certainly qualifies as a surprise when a guy making his first start sets a team record for receiving yards, especially considering the franchise has two receivers with busts in Canton. But it doesn't appear to be a fluke after Austin followed up his 10-catch, 250-yard, two-touchdown show in Kansas City by catching six passes for 171 yards and two more scores in a win over the Atlanta Falcons the next game.
The 421 receiving yards for Austin during his brief stint as a starter represent the fourth-highest two-game total in NFL history. It's also only 14 fewer yards than Austin had in his first 41 games as a Cowboy.
Well, what took so long?
To begin answering that question, let's go back to Garfield High. Austin focused on basketball and track as a freshman and sophomore despite football coach Steve Mucha's repeated recruiting pitches. Mucha backed off after two years of trying to get Austin to play football, hoping his friends might change his mind. Austin's football career got a late start after Mucha gave him a break for being tardy to school.
"He gave me a pass to go into class and didn't give me detention," Austin said. "I asked him if he had an extra jersey." Austin made a key catch on a deep ball down the sideline in his first game, leading the opposing coach to loudly wonder where that kid came from. But it's not as if Austin was an instant sensation as a receiver. In fact, he made a bigger impact at free safety in high school.
Not that college recruiters noticed. Rutgers was the only major program to show any interest, but never followed up after its initial inquiry. Mucha convinced the coaches at Monmouth to take a look at Austin. A Monmouth assistant, wowed by Austin's physical attributes, asked Mucha what was wrong with the tall, speedy kid.
"There's nothing wrong with him," Mucha responded. "It's just that his best years are way ahead of him."
Perhaps some major programs realized their mistake when Austin, at 6-foot-3 and about 200 pounds, ran the 100 meters in 10.6 seconds that spring.
"Thank God he was already signed with us," Monmouth coach Kevin Callahan. "It was too late for them and great for us."
Austin basically arrived at Monmouth, a Division I-AA program that began playing football in 1993 and had never produced an NFL player, as a starter at receiver. Callahan gave Austin simple instructions as a freshman: "Run deep, go by all those people and go up and get the ball."
As Austin learned more of the intricacies of the passing game, his role expanded. He graduated with most of the program's receiving records and was at least a blip on the radar screen of NFL scouts.
Of course, Austin was already well-known at Valley Ranch, where Jim Garrett made a point of mentioning "this guy from my backyard." The ex-scout recalls some rolling of eyes in the room, but the Cowboys followed up on his recommendation, keeping tabs on Austin throughout his senior season and during the pre-draft process. The Cowboys sent two scouts to Monmouth to see Austin during the season: John Wojciechowski, who replaced Garrett as the Northeast-area scout, and national scout Walter Juliff.
Callahan emphasized Austin's lack of experience to every scout who called or came to campus.
"Here's a kid who has a tremendous amount of upside," Callahan recalled telling scouts. "What you see is only scratching the surface of what he's going to be able to do. He isn't even close to peaking."
There was enough interest in Austin for him to be invited to the scouting combine, where he ran a 4.47 40-yard dash and had a vertical leap of 40 inches. Then came his campus pro day, when a grand total of two NFL types showed up: then-Cowboys assistant director of pro scouting Brian Gaine and Ray Sherman, then the Tennessee Titans' receivers coach.
Gaine happened to be in his native New Jersey for a wedding, and the Cowboys asked him to stay an extra day to get another set of eyes on Austin.
With a Monmouth assistant coach throwing passes, Gaine and Sherman put Austin through a grueling workout. Austin remembers trying to hide how tired he was. Sherman, who has been Austin's position coach the past three seasons, liked what he saw.
"He reminded me of a big, strong Andre Reed," Sherman said, referring to the former Buffalo Bills star. "He was big, he was strong, he was fast, he had good hands and he was a very smooth route-runner."
Sherman recommended Austin to the Titans' front office, but Tennessee took receiver Jonathon Orr (zero career catches) in the sixth round instead. Austin's phone didn't ring on draft day until the Cowboys called midway through the seventh round to gauge his interest in signing as a free agent. The Cowboys had graded him as a sixth-round prospect, making him a priority as a free agent.
"The raw talent was there," Cowboys college scouting coordinator Chris Hall said. "It's just that it's so far from Monmouth to the NFL."
Juliff and Todd Haley, then the Cowboys' receivers coach, made pitches to Austin. Bill Parcells helped close the deal. One factor in Austin's decision was fellow Garfield alum Wayne Chrebet's success with the Jets as an undrafted player under Parcells.
"I knew he was a Jersey guy," Austin said of Parcells. "He knows I was a hard-working type guy. He told me I had a chance to make the team through special teams. That's what I did."
After two seasons, Austin had 17 tackles on special teams and only five receptions. He established himself as an effective kickoff returner (25.8 yards per return), highlighted by a 93-yard touchdown return as a rookie in the playoff loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Parcells' final game on the sideline.
Austin developed from a raw prospect into an NFL-caliber receiver during those two seasons. That process began with slimming down after bulking up to a muscular 230 pounds at Monmouth, prompting at least one scout to ask Callahan if he thought Austin could play H-back or tight end. Now, Austin weighs 212 pounds. He maintained his power - he has broken tackles on all five of his touchdowns this season - and increased his speed.
Austin also worked hard on honing his route-running ability, which he considers a work in progress. He arrived in the NFL as a guy who got out of his breaks quickly. He's learned technique to allow him to get good releases and create space from cornerbacks. He's developed an understanding of defensive concepts, studying how to find holes in coverage and becoming more patient so he'll be in the right spots at the right times.
"Being effective while you're running fast at the same time, not just running fast," Austin said. "That's what I'm working on and continuing to work on every day."
There was buzz around Valley Ranch in the spring of 2008 that Austin was primed for a breakout season. Austin, who finished the season with 13 catches for 278 yards and three touchdowns, had to settle for flashes of brilliance. (His two-catch, 115-yard, one-touchdown performance in a road win over the Green Bay Packers pops to mind.) Austin's development was slowed by a couple of knee sprains. He suffered the first covering a kickoff following his touchdown catch in the preseason opener, sidelining him through the first regular-season game. He missed three more games after hurting the knee again on a third-down catch during the game-winning drive Nov. 16 against the Washington Redskins.
After an anticipated training camp competition with Patrick Crayton didn't materialize this summer, Austin had to wait until injured ribs sidelined Roy Williams to make his first career start. Austin earned the job on a permanent basis by breaking Hall of Famer Bob Hayes' team record for receiving yards in a game in dramatic fashion, taking a slant 60 yards for a touchdown in the overtime win over the Chiefs.
"He's been working hard for a long time, waiting for his opportunity," said Tony Romo, who has thrown thousands of passes to Austin during voluntary workouts not organized by the team. "Obviously, now that he has it, he's doing pretty well. He's definitely a big part of this offense. I'm glad to see that all the time and effort and hard work that he's put in has paid off. "
Suddenly, Austin is being treated like a superstar. So many reporters and cameramen swarmed his locker Wednesday that Austin apologized to neighbor/linebacker Steve Octavien before taking questions. At the previous night's Dallas Mavericks season opener, Austin had seats a couple of rows behind Mark Cuban and received a roaring ovation when his smiling face popped up on the arena big screens.
Austin's confidence has soared, but his humility has stayed intact. He mentions hard work about as often as he smiles. He's still the same easygoing guy with a "magnetic personality," as both his high school and college coaches describe it.
But, just in case, an old friend has a reminder for Austin.
"He deserves everything he gets," Jim Garrett said. "But do me a favor, will you? Tell him that the road isn't finished yet."
Tim MacMahon covers the Cowboys for ESPNDallas.com. E-mail him at tim.macmahon@espn3.com.
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives...ok-at-whos.html
* Nice background article from ESPN (his position coach, Ray Sherman, said that when he first saw Austin, he was reminded of the great Bills WR Andre Reed)...
http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/columns/s...&id=4607242
Updated: October 30, 2009, 12:11 PM ET
Austin's hard work is starting to pay off
By Tim MacMahon
ESPNDallas.com
Archive
IRVING, Texas -- The thought of an NFL career never crossed Miles Austin's mind until he made the 10-minute walk from Monmouth University to the Garrett backyard.
The teaching session with several other players from small colleges in the area took place the summer after Austin's sophomore year, when he scored a school-record 12 touchdowns. Jim Garrett was immediately impressed with Austin's size and speed. Austin's ability to track and adjust to the ball in the air, particularly on deep routes, excited the longtime Dallas Cowboys scout. Garrett had seen enough to tell the kid that he had pro potential after Austin caught the ball on a comeback route and pitter-pattered his feet inside the hedges that serve as a sideline in the backyard of the oceanside Jersey home.
"I was like, 'What's this old guy talking about?'" Austin said, flashing the toothy smile that rarely leaves his face.
How could Austin possibly picture himself as an NFL player? He didn't even see himself as a football player, period, until midway through his junior season at Garfield High School in Bergen County, N. J. Three-and-a-half years later, he's told he's a pro prospect? Please. That's almost as unbelievable as the historic breakout performances the past couple of games by an undrafted guy who spent the first few seasons of his career as a relatively anonymous member of America's Team.
"I actually hadn't heard of him or Monmouth College until I got here," Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said, laughing. "No, I really had heard of Monmouth."
Assistant coach/offensive coordinator Jason Garrett had definitely heard of Austin. Garrett's father had been singing the receiver's praises since the day they met in the backyard, the first of several appearances Austin made to work with the wise, intense old man.
Jason Garrett, Troy Aikman's former backup, returned to Valley Ranch as the offensive coordinator after Austin's rookie season, just before Phillips was hired as head coach. Jim Garrett, who retired in 2004, has lobbied his son to play Austin more often so frequently that it's become a running joke between father and son.
"I'd always kid him: 'You gotta play Austin more! You gotta play Austin more!'" Jim Garrett said over the phone from his Jersey home. "But I'll be honest with you, I never in 100 years could have predicted what he's done."
Yes, it certainly qualifies as a surprise when a guy making his first start sets a team record for receiving yards, especially considering the franchise has two receivers with busts in Canton. But it doesn't appear to be a fluke after Austin followed up his 10-catch, 250-yard, two-touchdown show in Kansas City by catching six passes for 171 yards and two more scores in a win over the Atlanta Falcons the next game.
The 421 receiving yards for Austin during his brief stint as a starter represent the fourth-highest two-game total in NFL history. It's also only 14 fewer yards than Austin had in his first 41 games as a Cowboy.
Well, what took so long?
To begin answering that question, let's go back to Garfield High. Austin focused on basketball and track as a freshman and sophomore despite football coach Steve Mucha's repeated recruiting pitches. Mucha backed off after two years of trying to get Austin to play football, hoping his friends might change his mind. Austin's football career got a late start after Mucha gave him a break for being tardy to school.
"He gave me a pass to go into class and didn't give me detention," Austin said. "I asked him if he had an extra jersey." Austin made a key catch on a deep ball down the sideline in his first game, leading the opposing coach to loudly wonder where that kid came from. But it's not as if Austin was an instant sensation as a receiver. In fact, he made a bigger impact at free safety in high school.
Not that college recruiters noticed. Rutgers was the only major program to show any interest, but never followed up after its initial inquiry. Mucha convinced the coaches at Monmouth to take a look at Austin. A Monmouth assistant, wowed by Austin's physical attributes, asked Mucha what was wrong with the tall, speedy kid.
"There's nothing wrong with him," Mucha responded. "It's just that his best years are way ahead of him."
Perhaps some major programs realized their mistake when Austin, at 6-foot-3 and about 200 pounds, ran the 100 meters in 10.6 seconds that spring.
"Thank God he was already signed with us," Monmouth coach Kevin Callahan. "It was too late for them and great for us."
Austin basically arrived at Monmouth, a Division I-AA program that began playing football in 1993 and had never produced an NFL player, as a starter at receiver. Callahan gave Austin simple instructions as a freshman: "Run deep, go by all those people and go up and get the ball."
As Austin learned more of the intricacies of the passing game, his role expanded. He graduated with most of the program's receiving records and was at least a blip on the radar screen of NFL scouts.
Of course, Austin was already well-known at Valley Ranch, where Jim Garrett made a point of mentioning "this guy from my backyard." The ex-scout recalls some rolling of eyes in the room, but the Cowboys followed up on his recommendation, keeping tabs on Austin throughout his senior season and during the pre-draft process. The Cowboys sent two scouts to Monmouth to see Austin during the season: John Wojciechowski, who replaced Garrett as the Northeast-area scout, and national scout Walter Juliff.
Callahan emphasized Austin's lack of experience to every scout who called or came to campus.
"Here's a kid who has a tremendous amount of upside," Callahan recalled telling scouts. "What you see is only scratching the surface of what he's going to be able to do. He isn't even close to peaking."
There was enough interest in Austin for him to be invited to the scouting combine, where he ran a 4.47 40-yard dash and had a vertical leap of 40 inches. Then came his campus pro day, when a grand total of two NFL types showed up: then-Cowboys assistant director of pro scouting Brian Gaine and Ray Sherman, then the Tennessee Titans' receivers coach.
Gaine happened to be in his native New Jersey for a wedding, and the Cowboys asked him to stay an extra day to get another set of eyes on Austin.
With a Monmouth assistant coach throwing passes, Gaine and Sherman put Austin through a grueling workout. Austin remembers trying to hide how tired he was. Sherman, who has been Austin's position coach the past three seasons, liked what he saw.
"He reminded me of a big, strong Andre Reed," Sherman said, referring to the former Buffalo Bills star. "He was big, he was strong, he was fast, he had good hands and he was a very smooth route-runner."
Sherman recommended Austin to the Titans' front office, but Tennessee took receiver Jonathon Orr (zero career catches) in the sixth round instead. Austin's phone didn't ring on draft day until the Cowboys called midway through the seventh round to gauge his interest in signing as a free agent. The Cowboys had graded him as a sixth-round prospect, making him a priority as a free agent.
"The raw talent was there," Cowboys college scouting coordinator Chris Hall said. "It's just that it's so far from Monmouth to the NFL."
Juliff and Todd Haley, then the Cowboys' receivers coach, made pitches to Austin. Bill Parcells helped close the deal. One factor in Austin's decision was fellow Garfield alum Wayne Chrebet's success with the Jets as an undrafted player under Parcells.
"I knew he was a Jersey guy," Austin said of Parcells. "He knows I was a hard-working type guy. He told me I had a chance to make the team through special teams. That's what I did."
After two seasons, Austin had 17 tackles on special teams and only five receptions. He established himself as an effective kickoff returner (25.8 yards per return), highlighted by a 93-yard touchdown return as a rookie in the playoff loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Parcells' final game on the sideline.
Austin developed from a raw prospect into an NFL-caliber receiver during those two seasons. That process began with slimming down after bulking up to a muscular 230 pounds at Monmouth, prompting at least one scout to ask Callahan if he thought Austin could play H-back or tight end. Now, Austin weighs 212 pounds. He maintained his power - he has broken tackles on all five of his touchdowns this season - and increased his speed.
Austin also worked hard on honing his route-running ability, which he considers a work in progress. He arrived in the NFL as a guy who got out of his breaks quickly. He's learned technique to allow him to get good releases and create space from cornerbacks. He's developed an understanding of defensive concepts, studying how to find holes in coverage and becoming more patient so he'll be in the right spots at the right times.
"Being effective while you're running fast at the same time, not just running fast," Austin said. "That's what I'm working on and continuing to work on every day."
There was buzz around Valley Ranch in the spring of 2008 that Austin was primed for a breakout season. Austin, who finished the season with 13 catches for 278 yards and three touchdowns, had to settle for flashes of brilliance. (His two-catch, 115-yard, one-touchdown performance in a road win over the Green Bay Packers pops to mind.) Austin's development was slowed by a couple of knee sprains. He suffered the first covering a kickoff following his touchdown catch in the preseason opener, sidelining him through the first regular-season game. He missed three more games after hurting the knee again on a third-down catch during the game-winning drive Nov. 16 against the Washington Redskins.
After an anticipated training camp competition with Patrick Crayton didn't materialize this summer, Austin had to wait until injured ribs sidelined Roy Williams to make his first career start. Austin earned the job on a permanent basis by breaking Hall of Famer Bob Hayes' team record for receiving yards in a game in dramatic fashion, taking a slant 60 yards for a touchdown in the overtime win over the Chiefs.
"He's been working hard for a long time, waiting for his opportunity," said Tony Romo, who has thrown thousands of passes to Austin during voluntary workouts not organized by the team. "Obviously, now that he has it, he's doing pretty well. He's definitely a big part of this offense. I'm glad to see that all the time and effort and hard work that he's put in has paid off. "
Suddenly, Austin is being treated like a superstar. So many reporters and cameramen swarmed his locker Wednesday that Austin apologized to neighbor/linebacker Steve Octavien before taking questions. At the previous night's Dallas Mavericks season opener, Austin had seats a couple of rows behind Mark Cuban and received a roaring ovation when his smiling face popped up on the arena big screens.
Austin's confidence has soared, but his humility has stayed intact. He mentions hard work about as often as he smiles. He's still the same easygoing guy with a "magnetic personality," as both his high school and college coaches describe it.
But, just in case, an old friend has a reminder for Austin.
"He deserves everything he gets," Jim Garrett said. "But do me a favor, will you? Tell him that the road isn't finished yet."
Tim MacMahon covers the Cowboys for ESPNDallas.com. E-mail him at tim.macmahon@espn3.com.
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Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
Billy Costigan Jr
Footballguy
With all the debate on Austin in this thread, I thought I'd post a trade I just accepted in my SFL dynasty IDP...
Gave up:
WR-Miles Austin-DAL
LB-Napoleon Harris-FA (free up some cap space for me)
2010 5th Round Rookie Draft Pick
Received:
2010 1st Round Rookie Draft Pick
2010 2nd Round Rookie Draft Pick
2010 4th Round Rookie Draft Pick
2010 4th Round Rookie Draft Pick
2010 6th Round Rookie Draft Pick
I have Ocho Cinco and Welker locked up to long (and expensive) deals...and I signed Austin almost at the minimum ($500K/yr) early last year, and with his stats, he is on pace to have an earned salary of $6.5 Million...so I'd have to give him the big deal (at that amount) or let him go.
All those draft picks plus I can spend the $6.5 M elsewhere (um, like on my draft picks I guess...)
Gave up:
WR-Miles Austin-DAL
LB-Napoleon Harris-FA (free up some cap space for me)
2010 5th Round Rookie Draft Pick
Received:
2010 1st Round Rookie Draft Pick
2010 2nd Round Rookie Draft Pick
2010 4th Round Rookie Draft Pick
2010 4th Round Rookie Draft Pick
2010 6th Round Rookie Draft Pick
I have Ocho Cinco and Welker locked up to long (and expensive) deals...and I signed Austin almost at the minimum ($500K/yr) early last year, and with his stats, he is on pace to have an earned salary of $6.5 Million...so I'd have to give him the big deal (at that amount) or let him go.
All those draft picks plus I can spend the $6.5 M elsewhere (um, like on my draft picks I guess...)
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Per Certificate's observation above, I have been known to get excited about players before. I try not to get too excited about everybody. For instance, in this rookie class, I really like the RB class (especially Wells, McCoy, Moreno and Brown), Stafford and Sanchez at QB, and some of the WRs (especially Nicks and Maclin... Harvin, too, but concerned about competition from Rice and Berrian cutting into his opportunities).
Part of the intent here is to pique interest, which wouldn't be as likely if I just wrote... Miles Austin run good.
One reason I have included the highlights and provided research and background articles (like the Romo has his mojo back work by the outstanding blogger Rafael Vela, and the ESPN article) is to provide additional material so others aren't restricted to just my interpretation.
Certainly everybody should look at and weigh the evidence dispassionately, about what Austin has done and the context within which it has occurred (including statistical, historical, scouting info), and make their own judgements and form their own conclusions as to its meaning and implications going forward.
Part of the intent here is to pique interest, which wouldn't be as likely if I just wrote... Miles Austin run good.
One reason I have included the highlights and provided research and background articles (like the Romo has his mojo back work by the outstanding blogger Rafael Vela, and the ESPN article) is to provide additional material so others aren't restricted to just my interpretation.
Certainly everybody should look at and weigh the evidence dispassionately, about what Austin has done and the context within which it has occurred (including statistical, historical, scouting info), and make their own judgements and form their own conclusions as to its meaning and implications going forward.
Last edited by a moderator:
MCguidance
Footballguy
I think this week will be a good test. An away game in Philly is no easy task.Per Certificate's observation above, I have been known to get excited about players before. I try not to get too excited about everybody. For instance, in this rookie class, I really like the RB class (especially Wells, McCoy, Moreno and Brown), Stafford and Sanchez at QB, and some of the WRs (especially Nicks and Maclin... Harvin, too, but concerned about competition from Rice and Berrian cutting into his opportunities).Part of the intent here is to pique interest, which wouldn't be as likely if I just wrote... Miles Austin run good.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Looking at Romo's historical production, since becoming the starter (about seventh game of 2006 season), he averages about 20 completed passes per game...
combining that fact with some information upthread...
In the pie chart cited above, a hefty slice/serving, about a third of the passing game, has run through Austin in his first three starts. A third of 20 is close to seven receptions per game. Austin does in fact have 21 receptions in his first three starts. Keeping up that torrid pace would yield about 112 receptions over 16 games. But even going down to five per game would = 80 per year.
Historically, Austin scores a TD every five times he touches the ball (9 career TDs, 44 career receptions and one rush). It is very possible that some of those were due to the element of surprise and not facing top defenders when he was still a situational, role player. Probably that was less of a factor past few weeks, against ATL and SEA (we have to assume his 250 yards against KC got their attention). Actually, since becoming a starter, he has bettered that pace (5 TDs in 21 receptions - a TD about every four catches). Even using the more conservative 80 receptions a year, and the more conservative TD every five receptions, that would yield 16 TDs. Even lopping off 30-50% from there would still lead to 8-10 TDs.
Some kind of downtick is expected, as defenses in some cases start to roll coverages to him more aggressively. But the Cowboys have a pretty good team, and can make opposing defenses pay in lots of ways if they pay TOO much attention to Austin.
I think it is possible that by the end of the season it will be more common to think of Austin as a potential top 10-15 WR with upside than top 20-25.
* If you think about it, his level of develoment and receiving skills are incredibly/improbably refined given his background...
1 - Didn't play football until something like midway through his junior year as a prep (how many top NFL WRs in recent history could we say that about? He might be an athletic freak of nature and phenom, analogous to Akeem Olajuwan in the NBA, who I think had largely played soccer prior to starring at Houston for Phi Slamma Jamma ((with Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, Larry "Mr. Mean" Micheaux, Alvin Franklin, Benny Anders, et al))... former KC RB Christian Okoye was a track and field freak who was I think improbably the Nigerian national champion in the 100 yards AND shot put ((imagine if the Jamaican shot put champ beat Usain Bolt in the 100 meters!!!)), with no prior football experience, prior to going to Azusa Pacific JC in CA).
2 - Came from tiny Monmouth (he was the first prospect from there to ever make the NFL).
3 - No starter reps in DAL until about a quarter of the way through his third season.
Perhaps mitigating that is that he got discovered and mentored by DAL OC Jason Garret's dad, a Cowboys scout, through the good fortune of living and playing at a college just a few blocks away from his house. He also has an outstanding positional coach in Ray Sherman.
The scary thing is, Austin could get better with increased reps and experience.
combining that fact with some information upthread...
In the pie chart cited above, a hefty slice/serving, about a third of the passing game, has run through Austin in his first three starts. A third of 20 is close to seven receptions per game. Austin does in fact have 21 receptions in his first three starts. Keeping up that torrid pace would yield about 112 receptions over 16 games. But even going down to five per game would = 80 per year.
Historically, Austin scores a TD every five times he touches the ball (9 career TDs, 44 career receptions and one rush). It is very possible that some of those were due to the element of surprise and not facing top defenders when he was still a situational, role player. Probably that was less of a factor past few weeks, against ATL and SEA (we have to assume his 250 yards against KC got their attention). Actually, since becoming a starter, he has bettered that pace (5 TDs in 21 receptions - a TD about every four catches). Even using the more conservative 80 receptions a year, and the more conservative TD every five receptions, that would yield 16 TDs. Even lopping off 30-50% from there would still lead to 8-10 TDs.
Some kind of downtick is expected, as defenses in some cases start to roll coverages to him more aggressively. But the Cowboys have a pretty good team, and can make opposing defenses pay in lots of ways if they pay TOO much attention to Austin.
I think it is possible that by the end of the season it will be more common to think of Austin as a potential top 10-15 WR with upside than top 20-25.
* If you think about it, his level of develoment and receiving skills are incredibly/improbably refined given his background...
1 - Didn't play football until something like midway through his junior year as a prep (how many top NFL WRs in recent history could we say that about? He might be an athletic freak of nature and phenom, analogous to Akeem Olajuwan in the NBA, who I think had largely played soccer prior to starring at Houston for Phi Slamma Jamma ((with Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, Larry "Mr. Mean" Micheaux, Alvin Franklin, Benny Anders, et al))... former KC RB Christian Okoye was a track and field freak who was I think improbably the Nigerian national champion in the 100 yards AND shot put ((imagine if the Jamaican shot put champ beat Usain Bolt in the 100 meters!!!)), with no prior football experience, prior to going to Azusa Pacific JC in CA).
2 - Came from tiny Monmouth (he was the first prospect from there to ever make the NFL).
3 - No starter reps in DAL until about a quarter of the way through his third season.
Perhaps mitigating that is that he got discovered and mentored by DAL OC Jason Garret's dad, a Cowboys scout, through the good fortune of living and playing at a college just a few blocks away from his house. He also has an outstanding positional coach in Ray Sherman.
The scary thing is, Austin could get better with increased reps and experience.
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