mystykoekaki
Footballguy
Hrrmm .. weird no broken coverages or bad tackling .. Austin, what are you ever going to do without these?
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Miles Austin - Top 3-5 Upside? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bob Magaw
- Start date
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
I'm sorry that you spent all your blind bid money on him.
certificate
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
Austin is one of those guys who creates strong opinions one way or the other. I think it has something to do with a lot of people getting him in FA. Sometimes that can create kind of a weird dynamic.
Anyway, I'm confident Austin is the real deal. Once he started getting more PT & getting some targets, you could see his vast potential. The classic case of a tremendous athlete being overlooked in the draft because of going to a small school.
You saw glimpses of his ability last year, but he's still only scratched the surface. Austin came into the league very raw & will keep improving (he's only 25). He can be one of the best WRs in the league in time, IMO.
Anyway, I'm confident Austin is the real deal. Once he started getting more PT & getting some targets, you could see his vast potential. The classic case of a tremendous athlete being overlooked in the draft because of going to a small school.
You saw glimpses of his ability last year, but he's still only scratched the surface. Austin came into the league very raw & will keep improving (he's only 25). He can be one of the best WRs in the league in time, IMO.
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NatronIsMean
Footballguy
I'm not. $3 waiver charge (I'm not in a blind bid league), and even as a WR2 he's a huge get for my team. As you can see from my sig, he's a much needed upgrade to my WRs. I'm sorry that he slept with your wife. I don't know why else you're so anti-Austin all over this board. I'll bring the fantasy trophy home with or without Austin. You'll still be pissed about what he did to you and your once happy family.
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
For someone who just accused me of "unhealthy hate", you sure do seem to be saying some hurtful, non-excellent things. Perhaps you should look in a mirror and take a look at the way you've treated others before lashing out.
humans_being
Footballguy
Act like a terd and you'll get treated like a terd.
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
I'm not the one who used foul language, accused someone of "hate", and made an offensive comment about Miles Austin having relations with my wife. My wife is someone's daughter, you know.
certificate
Footballguy
When Williams was getting the coverage attention, Austin was going off. Now Austin is getting the attention and Williams is putting up the numbers.
As a Williams and Austin owner, it's kind of a nightmare. I guessed right today with Williams, but week to week who knows.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Last two games:
Williams: 10-180-1
Crayton's: 6-126-0
Austin: 5-69-1
What's it mean? I have no idea. But it could be that Austin isn't a true #1 and can't handle the extra attention.
Williams: 10-180-1
Crayton's: 6-126-0
Austin: 5-69-1
What's it mean? I have no idea. But it could be that Austin isn't a true #1 and can't handle the extra attention.
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
Lighten up, Francis. I was just joking with the "sleep with your wife" angle. I didn't call you names and I didn't get personal since I don't know you. Clearly a joke. And I didn't get "hurtful" - You "dreamed" of Austin having a bad game. That's honestly weird in the "unhealthy hate" category for me. I don't dream of negative things for fantasy players. That's just weird and creepy. But stating that isn't being hurtful.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Please keep the thread on point (it is tedious to wade through all the extraneous posts).
Austin's success was sudden and therefore suspect to some. His receptions/yardage have declined the past few weeks relative to his meteoric first few weeks. He has some legit questions (I have some myself, probably like a lot of people), and raising them doesn't make someone a "hater".
To cut through some of the personal clutter....
Believers who are convinced on scouting grounds he is a legit talent won't be put off by an ordinary game or two. Conversely, sceptics aren't going to be tipped over by an impressive few games... they want to see it for a more sustained period.
Sceptics are right more often because because they have the weight of history and statistics behind them... usually breakouts are anomalies and shortlived, and we see a regression to the mean.
Personally, I find it more challenging to make a scouting-based call that succeeds against the odds. It has a greater degree of difficulty in being right than parroting stats/history.
The bottom line, if somebody actually looks at Austin, breaks down his physical traits and skill set and STILL doesn't like what they see, than I have more respect for that agree to disagree scenario.
* Didn't see the GB game yet, but recorded it and will report back.
Not sure if it was certificate (?), but a poster upthread was prophetic in going on the record as being concerned about the impending schedule, despite some seemingly good overall matchups (like GB ), due to some looming talented CBs/secondaries. PHI made containing Austin and Witten the focal point of their defensive game plan. Woodson is one of the best cover/complete CBs in the league (along with Bailey, Revis and Asomugha), but don't know yet if he shadowed Austin. Woodson and Harris are among the best (if not the best) bump 'n run tandems in the game. Samuel and Brown are also a quality duo, arguably among the best. OAK is coming up soon, which brings Asomugha.
Streaks and flukes work both ways. Austin may be facing an unusual number of difficultg DB matchups in recent weeks, but most secondaries don't sport CB duos like PHI and GB.
IMO it is as premature to say he definitely isn't anything more than a WR2 than it is to say he definitely is. A lot still has to play out, for Austin and the Cowboys, even this season, before we can make a more definitive judgement.
The rest of the season could branch into many different pathways.
First of all, PHI stated last week that they thought Austin was more dangerous, and were more willing to take their chances with Roy Williams. I think that speaks volumes to their relative talent and projection.
Even the biggest Austin detractors and Williams supporters should be able to agree that Austin has done far more with his opportunities to exploit coverage/tackling lapses when given the chance than Williams.
Good things happen when DAL gets the ball in Austin's hands. Maybe it was a coincidence, but the Cowboys 4-0 win streak coincided with Austin's breakout/emergence. Many thought that Romo was playing some of the best ball of his career, which has overlapped with this phenomenon (set career high for games without an INT - 3?). Part of this has come directly from Austin generating big plays, but Witten has also talked about how his presence has opened up the passing game and whole offense (prior to GB). Of course, Austin doesn't get fantasy points for being a decoy.
Just like opposing defensives can adapt to the Cowboys and modify their game plans, DAL can respond in turn. If they come to the conclusion that good things happen when Austin gets the ball in his hands, they may try harder. It is still possible to take what the defense gives, spread the ball around and be opportunistic, but try a little harder to spring Austin. When DAL barely got the ball to Austin in PHI, they nearly lost, and they fared even worse this week, with only 20 receiving yards. Perhaps a better mix for the Cowboys will be to augment the spread it around philosophy with one that also gets the ball in the hands of their best playmakers.
Against PHI, Romo admitted he was looking in other directions a lot. Interested to see the GB game. Looking at the box score, Barber led DAL with 26 rushing yards, and Romo was 2nd with 16 yards. That tells me the Cowboys weren't firing on all cylinders in the run game. Many more efforts like that, and DAL could start losing with greater frequency. I don't think DAL overlooked the game, but ran into a buzz saw. In successive weeks, GB was stung by the second straight loss to hated rival MIN, led by former institution Favre. Than lost to the last remaining winless team in TB. I think the Cowboys next two games are winnable and at home (WAS and OAK).
I'll be watching GB to see if Austin isn't getting the ball as much in recent weeks because he isn't getting open against greater attention, because he is facing an unusual run of good secondaries, because other receivers are more open due to the extra attention and Romo finding them instead, etc. Going forward, can DAL run the ball more effectively to better set up play action passes?
The ability for opposing defenses to respond to the escalated threat presented by Austin, and for DAL to in turn adapt, is still in flux and being worked out (kind of like an arms race). There is more indeterminateness than usual in Austin's projection "probablility cloud". If he fulfills his potential, he could be massively valuable. With such evident talent, it will be a bigger value drop if he fails to live up to the potential, than if a seemingly more mediocre prospect failed, as expected. This is one reason he is so polarizing and divisive.
Already this has swung swung back and forth a few times, with several reversals, like a game with multiple lead changes. He had a great first start, but it was just one game, sceptics weren't coming through the woodwork as much in starts 2-3, they reemerged more last week in an ambiguous game, and are back in force after his worst start and a several game downward "trend".
Rather than be the cause and source of friction, the uncertainty surrounding a breakout should be embraced. One of the funnest things to me about fantasy football is the unknown. If everything was fated and predestined, it would be boring or worse (like the Twilight Zone episode where Sebastion Cabot tells the dude... "You ARE in the right place."). When there are wild value oscillations like this, in the early stages of a breakout/chimera, as the case may be, great value can be gained or lost, more is at stake, on a right or wrong call about whether to acquire or trade away. Even if the respective pro and con Austin camps can't find a lot of common ground or agree on much else, maybe they can on the fact that Austin is interesting for this reason.
At its best, there has been some healthy debate in this thread. The hope is that it doesn't degenerate to something less constructive. Different opinions are encouraged. Negative feelings/expressions about those of others, not so much.
Thanx in advance for your cooperation/participation.
** One reason I think it would be a mistake to write off Austin prematurely, despite this rough patch in the season, and to recommend him in dynasty leagues (not necessarily blowing up your team to get him, but at the right price, exploiting these inevitable up and down vagaries during the course of a season). Austin is almost certainly not as good as he is going to be. He was a relatively late bloomer (didn't even play until late in high school), Monmouth isn't exactly an NFL pipeline and he didn't start his first two seasons.
Austin's success was sudden and therefore suspect to some. His receptions/yardage have declined the past few weeks relative to his meteoric first few weeks. He has some legit questions (I have some myself, probably like a lot of people), and raising them doesn't make someone a "hater".
To cut through some of the personal clutter....
Believers who are convinced on scouting grounds he is a legit talent won't be put off by an ordinary game or two. Conversely, sceptics aren't going to be tipped over by an impressive few games... they want to see it for a more sustained period.
Sceptics are right more often because because they have the weight of history and statistics behind them... usually breakouts are anomalies and shortlived, and we see a regression to the mean.
Personally, I find it more challenging to make a scouting-based call that succeeds against the odds. It has a greater degree of difficulty in being right than parroting stats/history.
The bottom line, if somebody actually looks at Austin, breaks down his physical traits and skill set and STILL doesn't like what they see, than I have more respect for that agree to disagree scenario.
* Didn't see the GB game yet, but recorded it and will report back.
Not sure if it was certificate (?), but a poster upthread was prophetic in going on the record as being concerned about the impending schedule, despite some seemingly good overall matchups (like GB
), due to some looming talented CBs/secondaries. PHI made containing Austin and Witten the focal point of their defensive game plan. Woodson is one of the best cover/complete CBs in the league (along with Bailey, Revis and Asomugha), but don't know yet if he shadowed Austin. Woodson and Harris are among the best (if not the best) bump 'n run tandems in the game. Samuel and Brown are also a quality duo, arguably among the best. OAK is coming up soon, which brings Asomugha.Streaks and flukes work both ways. Austin may be facing an unusual number of difficultg DB matchups in recent weeks, but most secondaries don't sport CB duos like PHI and GB.
IMO it is as premature to say he definitely isn't anything more than a WR2 than it is to say he definitely is. A lot still has to play out, for Austin and the Cowboys, even this season, before we can make a more definitive judgement.
The rest of the season could branch into many different pathways.
First of all, PHI stated last week that they thought Austin was more dangerous, and were more willing to take their chances with Roy Williams. I think that speaks volumes to their relative talent and projection.
Even the biggest Austin detractors and Williams supporters should be able to agree that Austin has done far more with his opportunities to exploit coverage/tackling lapses when given the chance than Williams.
Good things happen when DAL gets the ball in Austin's hands. Maybe it was a coincidence, but the Cowboys 4-0 win streak coincided with Austin's breakout/emergence. Many thought that Romo was playing some of the best ball of his career, which has overlapped with this phenomenon (set career high for games without an INT - 3?). Part of this has come directly from Austin generating big plays, but Witten has also talked about how his presence has opened up the passing game and whole offense (prior to GB). Of course, Austin doesn't get fantasy points for being a decoy.
Just like opposing defensives can adapt to the Cowboys and modify their game plans, DAL can respond in turn. If they come to the conclusion that good things happen when Austin gets the ball in his hands, they may try harder. It is still possible to take what the defense gives, spread the ball around and be opportunistic, but try a little harder to spring Austin. When DAL barely got the ball to Austin in PHI, they nearly lost, and they fared even worse this week, with only 20 receiving yards. Perhaps a better mix for the Cowboys will be to augment the spread it around philosophy with one that also gets the ball in the hands of their best playmakers.
Against PHI, Romo admitted he was looking in other directions a lot. Interested to see the GB game. Looking at the box score, Barber led DAL with 26 rushing yards, and Romo was 2nd with 16 yards. That tells me the Cowboys weren't firing on all cylinders in the run game. Many more efforts like that, and DAL could start losing with greater frequency. I don't think DAL overlooked the game, but ran into a buzz saw. In successive weeks, GB was stung by the second straight loss to hated rival MIN, led by former institution Favre. Than lost to the last remaining winless team in TB. I think the Cowboys next two games are winnable and at home (WAS and OAK).
I'll be watching GB to see if Austin isn't getting the ball as much in recent weeks because he isn't getting open against greater attention, because he is facing an unusual run of good secondaries, because other receivers are more open due to the extra attention and Romo finding them instead, etc. Going forward, can DAL run the ball more effectively to better set up play action passes?
The ability for opposing defenses to respond to the escalated threat presented by Austin, and for DAL to in turn adapt, is still in flux and being worked out (kind of like an arms race). There is more indeterminateness than usual in Austin's projection "probablility cloud". If he fulfills his potential, he could be massively valuable. With such evident talent, it will be a bigger value drop if he fails to live up to the potential, than if a seemingly more mediocre prospect failed, as expected. This is one reason he is so polarizing and divisive.
Already this has swung swung back and forth a few times, with several reversals, like a game with multiple lead changes. He had a great first start, but it was just one game, sceptics weren't coming through the woodwork as much in starts 2-3, they reemerged more last week in an ambiguous game, and are back in force after his worst start and a several game downward "trend".
Rather than be the cause and source of friction, the uncertainty surrounding a breakout should be embraced. One of the funnest things to me about fantasy football is the unknown. If everything was fated and predestined, it would be boring or worse (like the Twilight Zone episode where Sebastion Cabot tells the dude... "You ARE in the right place."). When there are wild value oscillations like this, in the early stages of a breakout/chimera, as the case may be, great value can be gained or lost, more is at stake, on a right or wrong call about whether to acquire or trade away. Even if the respective pro and con Austin camps can't find a lot of common ground or agree on much else, maybe they can on the fact that Austin is interesting for this reason.
At its best, there has been some healthy debate in this thread. The hope is that it doesn't degenerate to something less constructive. Different opinions are encouraged. Negative feelings/expressions about those of others, not so much.
Thanx in advance for your cooperation/participation.
** One reason I think it would be a mistake to write off Austin prematurely, despite this rough patch in the season, and to recommend him in dynasty leagues (not necessarily blowing up your team to get him, but at the right price, exploiting these inevitable up and down vagaries during the course of a season). Austin is almost certainly not as good as he is going to be. He was a relatively late bloomer (didn't even play until late in high school), Monmouth isn't exactly an NFL pipeline and he didn't start his first two seasons.
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The Man With No Name
Footballguy
chimera-
1. A fire-breathing she-monster usually represented as a composite of a lion, goat, and serpent.
2. An imaginary monster made up of grotesquely disparate parts.
Ok, he's an imaginary monster, Bob. And a talent.
But I'm probably gonna keep puting him in my lineup.
1. A fire-breathing she-monster usually represented as a composite of a lion, goat, and serpent.
2. An imaginary monster made up of grotesquely disparate parts.
Ok, he's an imaginary monster, Bob. And a talent.
But I'm probably gonna keep puting him in my lineup.
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MCguidance
Footballguy
I dunno Aaron, I think it's MSW at this point. He is very steady and keeps putting up points. For those who say Garrard is a detriment, I don't disagree, but is it possible that it might be better to be the clear cut number 1 rather than a good option among many good options on DAL? Just asking.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I was trying to capture a sense (not felt by me but represented by a vocal factionThe Man With No Name said:
) that his breakout has been illusory, and has been built into a kind of legend or fable, without basis or substance. I also remain confident that his talent is real, so my expectations that flow from that continue to be correspondingly hopeful.
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packersfan
Footballguy
Ditto, but I'm going to start lowering my expectations for him. I view him more as a WR2/3 now and not a WR1. I would view Sims-Walker as a WR1 going forward. He's showing no signs of slowing down as long as he doesn't bang groupies the night before a game.The Man With No Name said:
Ridgelake
Footballguy
I would generally agree with this. As a Cowboy fan, this doesnt bother me too much as Romo is showing the willingness to find the open man. But as an Austin owner, its been frustrating the last couple of weeks.In my mind, what hasn't yet been answered, is if Dallas will try to scheme to get Austin the ball despite drawing so much defensive attention. Or are they happy that he draws so much attention that it theoretically opens things up for everyone else? Time will tell on this one.az_prof said:
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Haven't seen the GB game yet, but in the DAL thread, it sounded like Austin came close to a 30 Yard TD on which Romo overthrew him.
If he had connected, we would be talking about how Austin had 5 receptions, 50 yards & 1 TD... & it would have been a TD in five games in a row.
Because he didn't make that ONE play, evaluation can oscillate and vary widely on his future projection.
While this is a reflection of the large amount of uncertainty that is still in play, something does seem to me amiss for so much weight to be attached to whether one play is made or not.
If he had connected, we would be talking about how Austin had 5 receptions, 50 yards & 1 TD... & it would have been a TD in five games in a row.
Because he didn't make that ONE play, evaluation can oscillate and vary widely on his future projection.
While this is a reflection of the large amount of uncertainty that is still in play, something does seem to me amiss for so much weight to be attached to whether one play is made or not.
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packersfan
Footballguy
This is correct. It was one of the few times Austin was open downfield and Romo threw a bad ball. If Romo throws an even slightly better ball, Austin almost certainly scores. I agree if that had happened we're talking about a different deal for Austin but I'm still concerned about 5 receptions in the past two games now that defenses are focusing on him. I thought two weeks ago the Cowboys didn't even try to get the ball to him until the big TD late. They tried a little more against Green Bay but there wasn't a lot of creativity to the routes and Austin wasn't given much of an opportunity. I'm also concerned (although it's early) that Austin may not have the true skills of a No. 1 WR who can beat double teams and still make plays. But again, that could come as he gains more experience (which may or may not be of any help to his owners this season). I'd like to see the Cowboys respond to the attention Austin is receiving by coming up with more creative ways to get him the ball. More quick hitters, slants and things of that nature. Until that happens, though, I think you have to knock Austin down from being a Must Start WR1 to more of a WR2/3. Regardless of the reasons why the lack of production is occurring the bottom line is there is a decline in production and his owners can't just discount it.
thehornet
Footballguy
He's had about 3 targets in the past 2 weeks. So what if he *might* have scored. Targets are what matters and correlates into future production. Sure, he's a tough good player, but so is Greg Jennings and he is having a wretched season as far as his draft ADP. Unfortunately, WR position is based so much on QB play and game-tempo, so whereas you may be correct that he is a fine talent, you might never be able to prove it, at least *this season*
packersfan
Footballguy
He had 9 targets against the Packers. So if you're saying targets are all that matters then you should be feeling very good Austin given that number. For me, the number of targets against the Packers wasn't what stood out - it was the inability to get the ball to Austin in ways where he could do something after the catch. The one time he got that opportunity was on the near TD. So that play carries weight with me since it's an indication he can still get downfield and make big plays if the Cowboys make the attempt and Romo makes an accurate throw. I would've traded about 4 of the targets Austin got for that one play if Romo had simply made a better throw.
thehornet
Footballguy
Ok, my bad on the green bay game, but I honestly cant believe some the throws his way in that game are considered targets. Half werent even catchable IMO.The game before, he was a ghost. Maybe he lacks seperation?
packersfan
Footballguy
I agree with these two comments. That's what I was getting at - the Cowboys aren't even trying to get him the ball in places where he can do something. His last catch against GB, for example, was at the line of scrimmage and there were several defenders around him. I'll happily take the point in my PPR league but he had zero chance to make a play on that. I don't even know why you would call a play like that up for him. The week before, they completely ignored Austin until his big TD. That made zero sense. At least try to get him the ball in ways that can help him make plays.
This is what I'm wondering as well and it goes back to my other comment that he may lack the skills of a true No. 1 WR who can beat double teams and make plays. All of the top WRs get doubled so if Austin is going to be a legit No. 1 WR, he has to beat that coverage and the Cowboys have to help him by calling routes that will take advantage of the skills he has. Again, I think it's too soon to tell if he has these skills or not but certainly the last two games weren't strong examples in his favor.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
moving a WR around can help get them open, also crossing route/pick-type plays.
double move-type routes can be slow developing. it will be interesting to see how the cowboys OL handles the loss of columbo.
an important thing that could help austin is if DAL runs more & better (seems like they abandoned it early against GB, which was odd given that they were still close until the 4th quarter... perhaps a lot of penalties and sacks led to frequent bad down and distance situations?). it they are more successful there, it will be harder for safeties to provide over the top help against austin.
* good point that his separation skills could improve. he is still developing, and just began to get starter reps little more than a month ago.
double move-type routes can be slow developing. it will be interesting to see how the cowboys OL handles the loss of columbo.
an important thing that could help austin is if DAL runs more & better (seems like they abandoned it early against GB, which was odd given that they were still close until the 4th quarter... perhaps a lot of penalties and sacks led to frequent bad down and distance situations?). it they are more successful there, it will be harder for safeties to provide over the top help against austin.
* good point that his separation skills could improve. he is still developing, and just began to get starter reps little more than a month ago.
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Guys who can't win the starting job in training camp, rarely possess true #1 talent. Austin will be a nice boom/bust WR3 for your team. Don't expect anything more from him.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
MSW lost his job earlier in the year, and has emerged as a legit WR2.
austin may have had some injury issues in training camp which set him back, and not reflect on his true ability.
it is harder to ascend to a lead WR if you already have a very good one on the team. it is very debateable whether roy williams is that for DAL.
austin may have had some injury issues in training camp which set him back, and not reflect on his true ability.
it is harder to ascend to a lead WR if you already have a very good one on the team. it is very debateable whether roy williams is that for DAL.
Steady Mooobin
Footballguy
I haven't read the last page or two, but he should have caught that ball in the GB game and it should have been a TD.
It wasn't that high, but he showed ZERO ups. Looked like me trying to dunk.
It wasn't that high, but he showed ZERO ups. Looked like me trying to dunk.
CR69
Footballguy
He missed most of OTAs and minicamps with a hamstring injury. My biggest problem with Miles is his hands, and he hasn't really done anything to show me he's improved in that area so we'll see.Roy Williams blocks like a mother though.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Austin has been a tough read..a couple of his long TDs were just "shoddy tackling" they should have been 15-20 catches, two were blown coverages, and a couple he showed some good burst.
I think he is a solid WR but next year Austin will be drafted way too high that is for certain.
I think he is a solid WR but next year Austin will be drafted way too high that is for certain.
PahtyTom
Footballguy
The problem is looking at this game in a vacuum and thinking it is a definitive answer. He had a top corner (Harris) on him with safety help over the top to double him all game. He still could have had a TD and will in situations like this a good % of the time. Just because Romo threw a little high and Austin didn't have the ups to get it doesn't mean that will happen all the time. If you could simulate this game 100 times I'm sure Austin has plenty of good games with TDs. With Woodson manned up on Witten, Roy Williams had 1 on 1 vs a #3 cb all day with no safety help. That's why he had good stats and a lot of looks. Romo won't force it to Austin if other teams are going to do THAT.
The question is, will other teams follow that strategy? IMO, they won't. Some teams will treat Roy and Austin equally, in which case Austin will have great opportunities for big days. Other teams will concentrate on shutting down the run. Either way, Austin is still a borderline WR1 from here on out IMO.
The real problem IMO is the loss of Columbo. Romo was pressured all day by a Green Bay defense that is very good, but does not put up big sack numbers. That is troubling. If right tackle is a huge problem, that will hurt Austin's chances a little because Romo won't have time to wait on the deep throws. My best guess is that we see Witten stay in to block on the right side of the line more, and for Marty B to benefit some from it.
The question is, will other teams follow that strategy? IMO, they won't. Some teams will treat Roy and Austin equally, in which case Austin will have great opportunities for big days. Other teams will concentrate on shutting down the run. Either way, Austin is still a borderline WR1 from here on out IMO.
The real problem IMO is the loss of Columbo. Romo was pressured all day by a Green Bay defense that is very good, but does not put up big sack numbers. That is troubling. If right tackle is a huge problem, that will hurt Austin's chances a little because Romo won't have time to wait on the deep throws. My best guess is that we see Witten stay in to block on the right side of the line more, and for Marty B to benefit some from it.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I wondered about this statement. Generally it seems true, but there must be exceptions, right? Let's look at the last decade of data and see how rare it is for a guy who wasn't in the starting lineup the first 5 games to emerge as an elite WR in the same season. Miles Austin is on a 5 game tear, but has only started 4 games (e.g., at year end he will presumably have 11 starts).2000 - of the top 20 WRs, 14 started 16 games, 4 started 15 games, 1 started 14 games, 1 started 13 games (Terrell Owens)
2001 - of the top 20 WRs, 13 started 16 games, 4 started 15 games, 2 started 14 games, 1 started 12 games (Troy Brown)
2002 - of the top 20 WRs, 13 started 16 games, 4 started 15 games, 2 started 14 games, 1 started 13 games (Torry Holt)
2003 - of the top 20 WRs, 10 started 16 games, 4 started 15 games, 4 started 14 games, 1 started 12 games (Santana Moss), 1 started 11 games (Steve Smith)
2004 - of the top 20 WRs, 13 started 16 games, 2 started 14 games, 2 started 13 games (Michael Clayton and Randy Moss), 1 started 12 games (Javon Walker), 1 started 11 games (Donald Driver), 1 started 4 games (Brandon Stokely)
2005 - of the top 20 WRs, 13 started 16 games, 4 started 15 games, 2 started 14 games, 1 started 12 games (T.J. Houshmandzadeh)
2006 - of the top 20 WRs, 10 started 16 games, 3 started 15 games, 4 started 14 games, 1 started 13 games (Darrell Jackson), 2 started 12 games (Marques Colston and Houshmandzadeh)
2007 - of the top 20 WRs, 8 started 16 games, 5 started 15 games, 2 started 14 games, 3 started 13 games (Santonio Holmes, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker), 1 started 12 games (Bobby Engram), 1 started 10 games (Anquan Boldin)
2008 - of the top 20 WRs, 11 started 16 games, 4 started 15 games, 2 started 14 games, 1 started 13 games (Bernard Berrian), 1 started 11 games (Boldin), 1 started 5 games (Lance Moore)
After Week 10 (9 games) 2009 - of the top 20 WRs, 11 started 9 games, 4 started 8 games, 2 started 7 games, 1 started 6 games (Welker), 1 started 4 games (Austin), 1 started 2 games (Breaston)
Assumes standard scoring (non-PPR), 6 point TDs
In the majority of cases, any elite FF WR who started less than 16 games missed 1 or 2 due to injury, and/or injury was the most common reason they did not start the game they came back. Less commoningly, a former high draft choice still with his original team started the year on the bench but later emerged as a starter.
A undrafted small college player who emerged to become a true #1 after never having previously started a game? It did not happen in the limited (10 years) sample size I examined. Its a Rod Smith-type story that is hard to fathom.
If nothing else, this proves the Miles Austin expience is a singular example for the entire decade past. There is always an exception that proves the rule. This data isn't intended as a knock against Austin, but it does perhaps explain why so many are having a hard time becoming a true believer.
For comparative purposes, MSW has played in 8 game and started 7, e.g., he will likely end the season with 14 starts.
Considering his production has gotten worse and worse for about five straight weeks, if his downslide continues, he may not be drafted at all. What's after 20 yards? Zero? Or does he a jam a ten-yard game in their before hitting that mark?
zamboni
Footballguy
Clearly expectations became too high for Austin given his explosive weeks. By the same token, I think too much is being made of his quiet weeks - what WR not named Reggie Wayne doesn't have off weeks? WR production by its very nature is inconsistent, as some combination of good defensive coverage, game situation and QB play are key factors.
The truth of Austin's value going forward is probably somewhere in between the last few quiet weeks and his big ones earlier on. How close to either side remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: he's part of a pass-friendly offense, has a generally accurate QB that loves to throw the ball down the field, has an underperforming (but not terrible) WR alongside him to draw coverage, and an all-world TE who has been anything but all-world these days.
Those factors point to pretty good opportunity IMO for Austin the rest of the way (and beyond).
The truth of Austin's value going forward is probably somewhere in between the last few quiet weeks and his big ones earlier on. How close to either side remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: he's part of a pass-friendly offense, has a generally accurate QB that loves to throw the ball down the field, has an underperforming (but not terrible) WR alongside him to draw coverage, and an all-world TE who has been anything but all-world these days.
Those factors point to pretty good opportunity IMO for Austin the rest of the way (and beyond).
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I think all you've shown is that a 5 game lead in starts is hard to overcome if your measure of comparison is total points for the year. If an elite WR averages 10 PPG over 16 games, how much more does the new guy have to do in 11 games to catch him in total points? So you are asking him to do more with his starts than elite guy does or else he isn't elite.As Austin was a waiver wire pick up in most leagues, the only thing that really matters is what Austin will do with the remainder of the season. I couldn't care less where he ends the season in total points because I'm getting no points for total points.
If, on the other hand, you set your measure as PPGS (games started) or total points from the time they started starting, then there might be some insight. If Austin can finish in the top 20 over therest of the season, then he's earning his keep.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I also reviewed PPG (PPGS would require looking at game logs - feel free if you are interested).The results are virtually the same, except you have a few more anomalies - Charles Rogers (no kidding) slips in at #18 in just 5 games 2003, Terrell Owens (suspension - played 7 games) and Darrell Jackson (injury - 6 games) in 2005, Joe Horn (injury) in 2006, et al.
There simply is no precedent over the last 10 years for a WR to start the season on the bench for over a month and then later emerge as a true #1. That is not to say Austin won't be the first, but he does, he will have accomplished something extraordinarily rare.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I put the research together before I left for work, and when I responded this afternoon in between meetings I didn't have much time to reply. Re-reading it, your line of reasoning doesn't make any sense to me.Miles Austin is currently 4th in standard non-PPR leagues; he is 2nd in TDs (7), 1 behind the NFL league leaders Fitz and Wayne. He's in the top 15 for yardarde (his standing is much lower in PPR since he only has 31 catches).
Obviously if his starting point from here on out is 5th, if 'can finish in the top 20 over therest of the season'...well, you see where that takes you.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I'm not sure if we're talking about the same thing. I'm just wondering if there are more virgin mid-season starters that put up top 20 seasons for the remaining season. If you use your start point as the week the receiver in question first starts, do you get more top 20 finishes for late-starting players when you compare them to the field from that week on and not for the prior weeks?
Player X starts for the first time in week 5. How he compares to players over weeks 1-4 isn't that helpful, even his PPG will drag because of his non-start prformances. How he compared to players over weeks 6-17 to my mind gives a better idea of how these late players will do down the stretch.
He might end up as the WR 23 in total points but been WR 17 in PPG but was actually WR 11 in his PPGS.
I wasn't intending to insult your work, just wondering if a different set of parameters would offer some insight. If gamebooks and a manual tally are the only way to run that study, I don't blame you for not doing so.
Player X starts for the first time in week 5. How he compares to players over weeks 1-4 isn't that helpful, even his PPG will drag because of his non-start prformances. How he compared to players over weeks 6-17 to my mind gives a better idea of how these late players will do down the stretch.
He might end up as the WR 23 in total points but been WR 17 in PPG but was actually WR 11 in his PPGS.
I wasn't intending to insult your work, just wondering if a different set of parameters would offer some insight. If gamebooks and a manual tally are the only way to run that study, I don't blame you for not doing so.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Excerpt from an Ed Werder chat on ESPN...
is miles austin ever going to recieve the ball again?
Ed Werder (11:10 AM)
Miles Austin's receiving totals have fallen every week since the Kansas City game. The Cowboys should have been able to exploit the Packers secondary in matchups with their wideouts last week since Dom Capers used his best corner _ Charles Woodson _ on TE Jason Witten. Austin had a chance to make a big play early in the game to put the Cowboys in front but Romo's pass was slightly high. Blame them both. Romo indicated Austin flattened his route more than the quarterback expected. The Broncos beat the Redskins secondary deep twice with Brandon Marshall last week and had Eddie Royal open on a double move but the ball was overthrown. The Cowboys should give Austin some chances down the field this week.
is miles austin ever going to recieve the ball again?
Ed Werder (11:10 AM)
Miles Austin's receiving totals have fallen every week since the Kansas City game. The Cowboys should have been able to exploit the Packers secondary in matchups with their wideouts last week since Dom Capers used his best corner _ Charles Woodson _ on TE Jason Witten. Austin had a chance to make a big play early in the game to put the Cowboys in front but Romo's pass was slightly high. Blame them both. Romo indicated Austin flattened his route more than the quarterback expected. The Broncos beat the Redskins secondary deep twice with Brandon Marshall last week and had Eddie Royal open on a double move but the ball was overthrown. The Cowboys should give Austin some chances down the field this week.
thecardiackid
Footballguy
I just targeted and got Austin in a 14 team redraft league @ the trade deadline. (gave mendy & burleson for beanie & austin - for those interested in current 'market value') I'm sure the stinker for DAL in GB helped my cause.
I don't think it's unreasonable to think that after the KC game explosion, opposing DC's were going to focus their attention on slowing him down. Roy has benefited over the past couple of weeks, which IMO should help Austin going forward. Spreading the D's attention around. If Witten could somehow have a good game soon, that would help the cause also.
The boys are leading the division, but not by much, so they should be fighting till week 17. I'm optimistic he'll put up solid WR2 #s the rest of the way, with some upside.
I don't think it's unreasonable to think that after the KC game explosion, opposing DC's were going to focus their attention on slowing him down. Roy has benefited over the past couple of weeks, which IMO should help Austin going forward. Spreading the D's attention around. If Witten could somehow have a good game soon, that would help the cause also.
The boys are leading the division, but not by much, so they should be fighting till week 17. I'm optimistic he'll put up solid WR2 #s the rest of the way, with some upside.
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
Ridiculous.
cstu
Footballguy
So it's now Austin's turn to stretch and fall?
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
We'll see if he whines about it in the media
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
40 inch vertical.Which makes this even more funny.
I love how he circles around like 'that did not just happen/I meant to do that'.
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
Yeah between that and his TD celebration where he tried to dunk it and had to do a layup i was starting to think this man aint got NO hops.makes you wonder on that verticle.
c2xistjz
Footballguy
IMO, looking at a combine vertical and comparing it to jumping for a ball in the middle of the game is the same as looking at combine speed (40-yard dash) and comparing it to football speed.Just because you have a 40" vertical during the combine does not mean that you'll be able to snag every high ball that comes your way. It's a little different when your running full speed, knowing where you are in respect to the field, and then trying to snag a ball in the air while being aware that you could get smashed by a DB/LB/S then just taking a step and jumping up. It really doesn't equate.THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA said:
That being said, he looked like George Costanza (before he tried Jimmy's Jump Shoes) trying to get that ball in the end zone.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Good points...A key distinction between raw VJ and actually catching a high pass during a game is TIMING... scouts often talk about how a WR with good ball skills high points the ball to maximize his jumping ability.
I thought I read austins VJ was more like 37.5 (which would still be pretty good), but I'll try and find where I saw that and confirm.
Be that as it may, its nice to know if a WR does have good timing, AND hops, they potentially have a higher/bigger effective catching radius, than a WR with good timing but no hops.
I'm pretty sure Austin can dunk (infamous end zone celebration notwithstanding), but it must be tougher to dunk on a grass court...
* another Austin mention in the aforementioned recent Werder chat (ESPN)...
John (Miami)
Hi Ed..It seems that both Marion Barber and felix Jones are not 100% why don't they give Choice the opportunity to carry the load?He has shown he can run between the tackles and has break away speed.
Ed Werder (11:02 AM)
In my best Ron Burgundy voice, allow me to say, Hello again, everybody! The Cowboys have contradicted themselves frequently regarding the health of their running backs. Marion Barber's lower body seems healthy now, but they claim he's had problems with the thumb injury in pass protection. Felix Jones continues to wear a knee brace. Since Jason Garrett's been criticized for not using either of them enough, they've had plenty of extra time to get healthy. Whether it's Barber, Jones or Tashard Choice, the Cowboys need to get the running backs more involved. I disagree that Choice has breakaway speed. The Cowboys have two vertical players _ Miles Austin and Felix Jones.
** ESPN has Austin at a consensus #20 WR this week (as high as #15 & #16 among four rankings)...
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football...09ranksWeek11WR
USA Today has a lofty #12 ranking (still has retained a lot of respect)...
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/fa...will-stay-hot/1
*** another observation about Austin and his role within the Cowboys offense.
The best offenses (NO, IND, NE, MIN, etc) execute well enough to move the ball down the field methodically on long drives... they can also of course score with explosive, big plays. I'm not sure the Cowboys execute at that level to score on long drives with consistency. DAL is better when they can get yardage in big chunks with Austin and Jones. I think they realize this already, and will get more creative in finding ways to get the ball into Austin's hands more often.
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