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Montee Ball (1 Viewer)

Damnit Faust. Everytime I see the Montee Ball thread and your Icon I just know its breaking the news of his inevitable release.

My prediction: he gets "hurt" in their game and goes on IR.

 
i always thought Bibbs was pretty good and he also plays special teams.

Still, I don't get releasing Ball, 2nd round draft pick just 2 seasons ago, starter last year, now he's meatloaf.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
rjv said:
What Wisconsin back actually worked out?
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Ron dayne won me a ff championship one year. Worked out for me
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A yes, the joy of picking Michael Bennett off the waiver wire after his owner just got too fed up.

In the one year he finished really, really well from week 5 or so on. I think it was the same year, but Amani Toomer's trifecta is what really got me that win, but Bennett played his #2 RB role well.

 
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bostonfred said:
120 carries for 560 yards at 4.7 yards per carry with 4 tds as a backup, plus 20 catches for 145. He wasn't a third down back running into soft coverage, a lot of those carries were tough yardage carries or running the clock out against teams that knew he was coming. That was good enough to be anointed starter and have them let their successful starter from the previous year go.

If you look at his 2014 season, when hwe rushed back from an appendectomy that left his core strength diminished and led to a season ending groin injury, then yes, that was a bad year. 23 carries for 67 yards and a td against the Colts is not going to get it done. He still had 12 for 60 with 3 catches for 29 against the Chiefs, which isn't too shabby. Then he played two of the toughest defenses in the league, the Seahawks, where he got hurt, and then the Cardinals, where he was injured for the season.

Nothing in his career so far has shown that he's a bad running back. This isn't Trent Richardson running for 3 yards a carry, it's a guy who just doesn't fit the stretch runs that Kubiak uses when he has two other guys in the roster who got the scheme better.

Where you see people worrying about their sunk cost, I see confirmation bias from guys who didn't like him coming into the league.

I don't think anyone ever thought he was a great talent, so I agree with you there. What's changed is his opportunity. And unlike other guys, where sunk cost is certainly a concern (like Christine Michael), the Broncos are reportedly shopping him and may move him before final cuts. It's easy for you to say trade him for whatever you can get or cut him, because you don't own him and wouldn't pay much for him. But they're are other people who like him more than you do and his situation may change soon. If there are people trading him for nothing out they're, I'm buying. It's easy to imagine his value spiking in the next week or next year.
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This is a great post. Generally, the most recent report we have on something is the most accurate, unless there were mitigating circumstances.

Logically, why would we weight 55 carries from 2014 over 120 carries from 2013? The base size is much larger for 2013, when he averaged 4.7 YPC. Recency bias is one potential reason, and may be at play in Montee's current value.

I hate fitting narratives to the data... loathe that approach. If we were to try, it could be argued on the one hand that he was never healthy in 2014, perhaps with some credence. Naysayers would then counter with his 2013 carries coming against soft fronts and obvious passing game situations (which I don't actually believe to be the case).

My point is simply this: 2/3s of his career carries point to a pretty darn good back. 1/3 point to a guy that should be pumping gas somewhere. I don't think we can definitively say he sucks... not yet.

 
Rotoworld:

Montee Ball - RB - Broncos

Montee ball rushed 16 times for 27 yards (1.7 YPC) in the Broncos' final preseason game.

It was a disastrous performance against second- and third-string defenders. Ball had one nice eight-yard run where he broke a tackle and gained extra yards, but after that he was the same sluggish back who has tumbled down the depth chart this preseason. It is difficult to see a future for Ball in Denver, and it would be surprising if he survives final cuts.

Sep 4 - 12:07 AM
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:sadbanana: Literally came in to the pool and read the Dion Lewis post, went to my league, dropped Ball for Lewis, came back to pool and read this. Hopefully he continues to suck.

 
Faust said:
Rotoworld:

Montee Ball - RB - Broncos

Montee ball rushed 16 times for 27 yards (1.7 YPC) in the Broncos' final preseason game.

It was a disastrous performance against second- and third-string defenders. Ball had one nice eight-yard run where he broke a tackle and gained extra yards, but after that he was the same sluggish back who has tumbled down the depth chart this preseason. It is difficult to see a future for Ball in Denver, and it would be surprising if he survives final cuts.

Sep 4 - 12:07 AM
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Yuck.

So, he goes to Dallas and yes they have a great O-line but can he be better than what they have now? Does not seem so. I can't see him getting a lot of snaps. I still have him on a dynasty league- if he gets traded, I will be looking to use the excitement to trade him away for some value as well.

 
Chadstroma said:
Faust said:
Rotoworld:

Montee Ball - RB - Broncos

Montee ball rushed 16 times for 27 yards (1.7 YPC) in the Broncos' final preseason game.

It was a disastrous performance against second- and third-string defenders. Ball had one nice eight-yard run where he broke a tackle and gained extra yards, but after that he was the same sluggish back who has tumbled down the depth chart this preseason. It is difficult to see a future for Ball in Denver, and it would be surprising if he survives final cuts.

Sep 4 - 12:07 AM
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Yuck.

So, he goes to Dallas and yes they have a great O-line but can he be better than what they have now? Does not seem so. I can't see him getting a lot of snaps. I still have him on a dynasty league- if he gets traded, I will be looking to use the excitement to trade him away for some value as well.
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Maybe use the potential of him being traded excitement and bail out now?

 
I don't think he's getting traded anywhere to be their starter. I do think he'd do better in an offense that didn't need him to turn the corner every play. Wherever he could go he'd have to earn time or advance through injury and his upside really depends on where he ends up. If you have shallow rosters I'd move him but if you have room to stash him I think he's more valuable than the random late round pick you could get for him right now, either in terms of actual value or in how much his value might go up if he landed in the right spot. If you could trade him for a fourth and he might go somewhere where he's worth a third, why not put your fourth round pick on the roulette table and give it a spin?

 
I think he's better than most people think in an offense that's suited to him. He could be a stud in Dallas. Hell, I could be a ......well....maybe not.

 
JohnnyU said:
I think he's better than most people think in an offense that's suited to him. He could be a stud in Dallas. Hell, I could be a ......well....maybe not.
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Why would Ball be better than what they have? They won't keep 5 backs. They already have 3 they like plus Clutts. Dunbar is likely the passing down back.

One of Ball, DMC, Randle would have to go to the practice squad. Don't see that happening. So they cut either Randle or DMC to keep Ball? Really?

 
IMO he's probably not even a top 45 back in the league, so it would surprise me if a team had a plan for him as a starter.

 
EBF said:
JohnnyU said:
EBF said:
JohnnyU said:
EBF said:
IMO he's probably not even a top 45 back in the league, so it would surprise me if a team had a plan for him as a starter.
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He's probably better than Michael Dyer :)
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Probably not actually.
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LOL, ok, then Edwin Baker.
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Difference is I didn't trade 8 first round picks for Baker like you did for Ball. Get over it dude. He's trash. Everyone misses sometimes.
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Exaggerate much? Besides, I turned subsequent deals into a great rebound from that bad trade. I think Ball could be very successful in Dallas. He isn't trash as you claim. He may not be as good as I once thought he was (like you said we all miss sometimes), but he could be very successful if he lands in Dallas and gets a chance.. I only own him in a couple of leagues where I own C J Anderson. For someone that thinks of himself as a prospect guru why do most of your dynasty teams suck?

 
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beef said:
EBF, no one cares what you think. you're pissed off that FBG's never hired you. we get it. congrats on moving on to some other site that is willing to publish your rookie rankings that suck balls. your dynasty advice is aids. it's no coincidence that you pick early and often in all your leagues and never win any titles.
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Ouch.

EBF, I don't always agree with it, but I value your opinion. Keep keepin on, dude.

 
beef said:
EBF, no one cares what you think. you're pissed off that FBG's never hired you. we get it. congrats on moving on to some other site that is willing to publish your rookie rankings that suck balls. your dynasty advice is aids. it's no coincidence that you pick early and often in all your leagues and never win any titles.
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Hah. I think I approached FBG roughly 10 years ago about the prospect of writing a column, but it was off-kilter humor stuff and not really consistent with their brand. They passed. Other than that, I've never approached them about trying to work here and it's not something that particularly interested me. The Toolbox/Scout.com thing was offered to me and I enjoy it, but (believe it or not) I'm not a guy who seeks the spotlight or aspires to a full-time career in this cottage industry. My Twitter account is basically empty and I'll only be posting things on there when required. This isn't my life's passion or even my main hobby. I just like posting on the message boards and doing rookie/prospect/CFB stuff.

Rookie rankings are tough and anyone who puts their stuff out there will look bad sometimes. Off the top of my head, Waldman had Demaryius Thomas behind loads of WR in his draft class and I'm sure Bloom has missed on all kinds of guys. Might as well run off and take some shots at them while you're at it. It's easy to be the critic when you're hiding behind a screen name and you don't put out anything of your own for people to judge.

Haters always bring up the misses, but what they never mention are all the things you get right. Here's a post from September of last year:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/713202-what-did-we-learn-week-one/page-5#entry17194026

EBF said:
CJ Anderson is a better runner than Montee Ball. :nerd:
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As for my CFB gig, show me another devy analyst who had Zeke Elliott and Nick Chubb on his five man short list in May 2014:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/702488-2015-2016-devy-prospects/?p=16861183

RB Nick Chubb, Georgia - Five star prospect by all the major recruiting sites. He runs a 4.4 in the 40, has a 40+ inch vertical, and already has an NFL body even though he's just now graduating high school. He might not be the best pure runner in this high school class, but the nice thing about Chubb is that you don't need to project any physical development to see him as a first round NFL RB prospect because he already has the physical tool kit. If he does anything at all as a freshman, he'll be worth a lot more a year from now than he right this second (see: Derrick Henry). He has a good chance to become a better version of Beanie Wells. He's a little upright and a little top heavy, and I don't see a lot of great cuts in his highlight reels, but the flat out size/speed/strength combo is freaky.

RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State - The rising sophomore is considered the frontrunner for Carlos Hyde's starting role. He has a good frame to work with at a listed height/weight of 6' 210 and room to add more. He was the Missouri state champion in the 110m hurdles as a high schooler, so you likely don't need to worry about his speed and athletic ability. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, an important quality that will help set him apart from other big backs. He looks athletic on the field and was effective with limited touches last season. My only concern is that he appears to be a long strider and might struggle to run inside and make sharp, compact cuts without the loss of momentum. But purely as an athlete he has a lot of the right ingredients and is a prime candidate to see his stock explode after he becomes a focal point of the Buckeye offense this season.
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That's a double grand slam considering where both guys were rated at the time. Haters don't want to acknowledge success though. They just want to talk about Jonathan Stewart or Matt Forte or some other player I was wrong about 5 years ago. Yawn.

 
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I don't claim to be the best prospect analyst -- not by a mile. And sure, the NFL misses too, but can someone explain to me how a former high 2nd round pick who has averaged 4.7 YPC on 2/3s of his career carries is now a leper that no one wants to touch?

Maybe it's the effect of expectations. I don't expect Montee to be a star anywhere, but I think he could be useful in the right system. That system clearly isn't Kubiak's, but Ball has had success in this league. This isn't Trent averaging sub-4 YPC for his career to date. He had an awful year last year (perhaps playing hurt -- it's certainly plausible he rushed back), and he obviously isn't a good fit for that system. McFadden had awful years in the ZBS but out up a couple of useful seasons in a power blocking scheme.

I guess I'm just confused... I'll give it a few more days to see where he lands.

 
As for my CFB gig, show me another devy analyst who had Zeke Elliott and Nick Chubb on his five man short list in May 2014:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/702488-2015-2016-devy-prospects/?p=16861183

RB Nick Chubb, Georgia - Five star prospect by all the major recruiting sites. He runs a 4.4 in the 40, has a 40+ inch vertical, and already has an NFL body even though he's just now graduating high school. He might not be the best pure runner in this high school class, but the nice thing about Chubb is that you don't need to project any physical development to see him as a first round NFL RB prospect because he already has the physical tool kit. If he does anything at all as a freshman, he'll be worth a lot more a year from now than he right this second (see: Derrick Henry). He has a good chance to become a better version of Beanie Wells. He's a little upright and a little top heavy, and I don't see a lot of great cuts in his highlight reels, but the flat out size/speed/strength combo is freaky.

RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State - The rising sophomore is considered the frontrunner for Carlos Hyde's starting role. He has a good frame to work with at a listed height/weight of 6' 210 and room to add more. He was the Missouri state champion in the 110m hurdles as a high schooler, so you likely don't need to worry about his speed and athletic ability. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, an important quality that will help set him apart from other big backs. He looks athletic on the field and was effective with limited touches last season. My only concern is that he appears to be a long strider and might struggle to run inside and make sharp, compact cuts without the loss of momentum. But purely as an athlete he has a lot of the right ingredients and is a prime candidate to see his stock explode after he becomes a focal point of the Buckeye offense this season.
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That's a double grand slam considering where both guys were rated at the time. Haters don't want to acknowledge success though. They just want to talk about Jonathan Stewart or Matt Forte or some other player I was wrong about 5 years ago. Yawn.

I disagree with beef going at you but I also don't understand your attempt to brag about calling Chubb and Zeke underrated in your article. You didn't say they'd be top backs, you called them underrated.

Sure you win some and lose some... just like everyone else who thought highly of Ball. But Ball is 24 with little NFL mileage on his body, who knows what will happen but he certainly has a chance to not only continue his career elsewhere, but be an integral part of an offense.

 
My favortie Montee Ball memory is the rookie draft when he came out. I had #1 and #2 picks. My friend had #3 and had been talking Lacy up as the guy I should take #1. I was split between all three (Bell, Lacy and Ball) but gave Bell the highest value and he would be my #1. I ended up swinging a trade to my friend giving him #2 and taking #3 for a future 1st. I fully expected to end with Bell and Ball. He took Ball instead- so I ended up with Bell and Lacy and a 1st round pick. Worked out well for me.

 
The perception is that Ball is a bust, but the reality may be that badly timed injuries and unusually strong backfield competition have made his road to success very difficult. Maybe he's just had some bad luck.

As a rookie Ball averaged 4.7 yds per carry, which is excellent. in year two he played 4 games before getting injured. In those 4 games his numbers were down, but 3 of the games were vs great run defenses KC, Seattle and Arizona.

While rehabbing from injury, Ronnie Hillman comes in and plays lights out. Hillman gets hurt and while Ball is still rehabbing CJ Anderson takes over and dominates, forcing his way into the starting role.

Which brings us to today. Why is the perception that Ball is a bust? Why is he not viewed as a talented young RB in his third season who averaged 4.7 yds/carry as a rookie, only to have his sophomore season derailed by injury and outstanding backup play?

It's fair to question why Ball has been unable to reestablish himself in Denver's backfield, but that could be due to the emergence of two other outstanding RB's filling the available roles on offense. Isn't it possible that Ball is in fact talented, there's just no role available for him?

Seems a bit early to give up on Montee Ball. If he gets a second chance in a good situation things could turn around quickly for him. Maybe all he needs is a little good luck the second time around.

 
satch said:
Which brings us to today. Why is the perception that Ball is a bust?
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About all I can say... is that watching him and watching Denver led to me to that conclusion.

Going into my draft in 2014 I had rated as the TWO back ups I for sure wanted were Hyde and CJ Anderson.

I was completely sold on Hyde taking over for Gore because of age. And Anderson taking over for Ball because of talent.

 
Maybe he tanked it against the scrubs Thursday so he could get cut/traded rather than languish as the #3 in Denver. How's that for alternative thinking?

 
BigSteelThrill said:
satch said:
Which brings us to today. Why is the perception that Ball is a bust?
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About all I can say... is that watching him and watching Denver led to me to that conclusion.

Going into my draft in 2014 I had rated as the TWO back ups I for sure wanted were Hyde and CJ Anderson.

I was completely sold on Hyde taking over for Gore because of age. And Anderson taking over for Ball because of talent.
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But Anderson taking over for Ball doesn't mean Ball is a bust. It just means Anderson may be better than Ball.Did you think Ball was a bust after his rookie season?

 
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