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Montee Ball (2 Viewers)

Right. When he had a Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis or Arian Foster he stuck with them. The question is whether CJ Anderson is one of those guys or an Olandis Gary.
Gary was the unquestioned starter for the 2000 season and blew out his knee during a 13 carry for 80 yard performance in week 1. That pretty much ended his career (2-3 years later).

I think Steve Slaton would have been a better example. Everyone thought he was going to keep his rookie production rolling but he was ineffective for 10 weeks before eventually getting injured and out of the league 2 years later.

 
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That's fair. My main takeaways, though, are that it's good to have the Kubiak rb and its good to have the backup to the Kubiak rb.

 
I don't own either guy but I had (have) the opportunity to move Kevin White for CJ Anderson. I am starting to lower expectations for Kevin White for a number of reasons but I still can't see myself giving him up for CJ Anderson. He had a solid season last year by all accounts but for whatever reason I just can't bring myself to trust him or his situation. It was easy for me to go all in on Jeremy Hill even though he is clearly in a RBBC with a talented Gio. But CJ, no. I can't put my finger on it. I really want to like him too.

 
I don't own either guy but I had (have) the opportunity to move Kevin White for CJ Anderson. I am starting to lower expectations for Kevin White for a number of reasons but I still can't see myself giving him up for CJ Anderson. He had a solid season last year by all accounts but for whatever reason I just can't bring myself to trust him or his situation. It was easy for me to go all in on Jeremy Hill even though he is clearly in a RBBC with a talented Gio. But CJ, no. I can't put my finger on it. I really want to like him too.
Its the risk that you literally get nothing from him. It is possible - albeit not likely - that he never starts another game and isn't even the backup rb in Denver. Its more likely that he's the starter for the foreseeable future, but the risk of getting Zac stacyed is still very real. And even if he starts the season, you have to worry about him getting Bernard pierced.
 
I don't own either guy but I had (have) the opportunity to move Kevin White for CJ Anderson. I am starting to lower expectations for Kevin White for a number of reasons but I still can't see myself giving him up for CJ Anderson. He had a solid season last year by all accounts but for whatever reason I just can't bring myself to trust him or his situation. It was easy for me to go all in on Jeremy Hill even though he is clearly in a RBBC with a talented Gio. But CJ, no. I can't put my finger on it. I really want to like him too.
Its the risk that you literally get nothing from him. It is possible - albeit not likely - that he never starts another game and isn't even the backup rb in Denver. Its more likely that he's the starter for the foreseeable future, but the risk of getting Zac stacyed is still very real. And even if he starts the season, you have to worry about him getting Bernard pierced.
Plus the knowledge that undrafted RBs rarely have extended periods (i.e., years) of great success. Very rare for Arian Foster to turn out as he has, for most UDFAs have a year or two then fade and are replaced. And then there's that nagging sense that, although CJ is feeling fit now, he has a tendency to get fat and lose stamina during games. What's to say that won't recur down the line a year or two from now. I think dynasty owners' risk is a lot higher than most of them think as they go all in on this guy based on one great half-season.

 
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This would be a very good time to be a buyer of Ball on the cheap. He'll be a starter again in this league, whether in DEN or elsewhere. He's way too good to spend his career as a backup.
If he is way too good not to be a starter again, what location is going to be better in the future than what he had in Denver when he was perceived as the far better talent there in an ideal situation?

I agree I would likely buy low if someone is selling low, but I don't think I buy thinking "I just need to sit tight and this guy is a big time starter somewhere". Overall, the hype on Ball was way out of control before and that thought seems to be lingering now. To complicate things, because the hype was so high on him previously, owners invested so much to get him initially that it may not be easy to find a seller. He is in the Trent Richardson territory now.
Right. I have no desire to go after Ball. He's entrenched in Denver for now with maybe the best QB of all time. If he loses his job to CJ Anderson in Denver, I don't see him taking over for someone else in another system. And lots and lots of guys that were drafted high have spent entire careers as backups or even less...

 
Rotoworld:

The Denver Post's Troy Renck anticipates Montee Ball mixing in for "seven to eight" carries per game behind C.J. Anderson.

Renck has Anderson ticketed for 18 carries a game. Before flopping last year following a preseason appendectomy, Ball averaged 4.66 yards per carry as a change-of-pace back behind Knowshon Moreno as a rookie in 2013. Ball's career YPC average currently stands at 4.18. Ball has been a fantasy disappointment through two NFL seasons, but he can be effective in a complementary role. He'll also offer handcuff appeal behind Anderson.

Source: Denver Post
Jul 5 - 3:52 PM
 
Faust said:
Rotoworld:

The Denver Post's Troy Renck anticipates Montee Ball mixing in for "seven to eight" carries per game behind C.J. Anderson.

Renck has Anderson ticketed for 18 carries a game. Before flopping last year following a preseason appendectomy, Ball averaged 4.66 yards per carry as a change-of-pace back behind Knowshon Moreno as a rookie in 2013. Ball's career YPC average currently stands at 4.18. Ball has been a fantasy disappointment through two NFL seasons, but he can be effective in a complementary role. He'll also offer handcuff appeal behind Anderson.

Source: Denver Post
Jul 5 - 3:52 PM
i love how some writer's guess buried in a general broncos mailbag is front page news on rotoworld.... that's how starved for information the fantasy community is in June....

 
I can't believe I'm looking at the monte ball thread. That's how starved I am for football info in July....

 
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Rotoworld:

Montee Ball is listed as the No. 2 running back on the Broncos' first depth chart of the preseason.

There has been speculation Ronnie Hillman and/or Juwan Thompson could push Ball for the No. 2 back role behind C.J. Anderson, but the initial depth chart suggests Ball remains in the lead. Ball's job security is a slight question mark, but for now he's the best handcuff option for fantasy drafters of Anderson.

Source: denverbroncos.com
Aug 10 - 4:46 PM
 
So... Now what? Speaking specifically to dynasty, where I guess depending on depth of rosters you have to hold and either hope for another opportunity due to injuries or trade or him getting cut and being allowed to sign elsewhere (don't see that as likely for this year).

Seems fairly clear Hillman has moved into the 2nd spot on the depth chart right behind Anderson, and Kubiak has drawn comparisons between Hillman and Forsett who had a tremendous year in his offense last season.

Last night, Ball was the third back through the order. Anderson averaged 6.4 yards on his carries; Hillman averaged 6.8 yards on his; Ball had four carries for four yards.

CSB, but part of this for me is major, major frustration for not trusting myself and my eyes. I wanted no part of Ball as a rookie, but he looked good in spurts behind Moreno. Last year I bought in for dynasty via trade and redraft as well -- sunk my season in redraft, and certainly didn't make things any easier in dynasty. Worse yet, I'm one of the ones that held CJ his entire rookie year, all offseason, and all regular season as Ball's handcuff, then cut bait literally the week before the Oakland game as CJ appeared to be behind both Hillman and Thompson. Compounding the multiple errors made to this point, however, would make the situation even worse.

So let's discuss what you do now with Montee... Is this a Trent situation where you sell him to the CJ owner or the bottom feeder in your league hoping to catch lightning in a bottle on Ball's next opportunity? Or are you going down with the ship? Or are you just cutting your losses and using the roster spot elsewhere?

 
That is me also. Exactly. I'm going to hold. Hilman is the most talented of the 3 IMO, but just not built for feature duties. CJ I loved, then had to cut due to injures on my team when he wasn't seeing the field. I'm sort of bitter here. Ball is an average talent. Probably not as talented as Taliaferro. I'll hold until I need the spot, then cut for another more promising player.

 
Trades never happen this late in the game but wouldn't it make sense to trade Montee? That way they can control his destiny and move him to the NFC. Maybe Dallas or Arizona? For a late pick.

If not, don't they just have to cut him? Juwan helps more on special teams so Montee is pretty much going to be an inactive. Doubt that's worth a roster spot.

But if they cut him, he would be free to sign with the Patriots, Colts or Steelers. Not that Montee is a super talent but I think he would fit nicely in the depth charts on those three teams.

 
Trades never happen this late in the game but wouldn't it make sense to trade Montee? That way they can control his destiny and move him to the NFC. Maybe Dallas or Arizona? For a late pick.

If not, don't they just have to cut him? Juwan helps more on special teams so Montee is pretty much going to be an inactive. Doubt that's worth a roster spot.

But if they cut him, he would be free to sign with the Patriots, Colts or Steelers. Not that Montee is a super talent but I think he would fit nicely in the depth charts on those three teams.
Would like to see Dallas. He could possibly beat out The Underwear Thief and definitely beat out McFadden. Plus (most importantly), I could gain a starting RB for my wasted CJA handcuff picks.

 
Well Montee now appears 4th on the depth chart, passed by Thompson as well. IF he even makes the roster, and a big IF at this point, he's probably staring at a game day inactive as Thompson plays special teams and is generally more versatile. Hell he may even be more trusted by Kubiak and Manning (he does have the endorsement of Manning's close friend, David Cutcliff).

So where does that leave Montee? Left for dead? Cut? Traded? In a fantasy sense, do you hold and pray for a Knowshon miracle? Or is this going the way of Trent?

 
JFS171 said:
Well Montee now appears 4th on the depth chart, passed by Thompson as well. IF he even makes the roster, and a big IF at this point, he's probably staring at a game day inactive as Thompson plays special teams and is generally more versatile. Hell he may even be more trusted by Kubiak and Manning (he does have the endorsement of Manning's close friend, David Cutcliff).

So where does that leave Montee? Left for dead? Cut? Traded? In a fantasy sense, do you hold and pray for a Knowshon miracle? Or is this going the way of Trent?
I don't think you hold him hoping for a Moreno miracle situation. That scenario was unique because it came at a time when

1)The team was much more concerned about Manning's neck health

2)The Broncos did not have any established player that showed they could pass protect

That entire scenario resulted from those two things being on the front burner and Moreno was right place, right time. In my opinion, the Broncos don't have those two concerns now because Manning has been healthy and, more importantly, Anderson and Hillman have both played with Manning long enough now for everyone to feel more comfortable about the players' pass protection ability.

I guess if I were a M. ball dynasty owner, of course I hold him because of the age but I treat him very much like CJ Spiller or Beanie Wells. I simply expect nothing from them at all and I just hold him until the punch in my gut says let it go. You might get Spiller and get some rejuvenated value. You might get Beanie and (this is actually easier), you just know it is over.

 
I want to see if he makes the final roster or if he's dealt. If he's 4th on the depth chart in Denver, that's punt time for me, personally... given my league settings and what's on my wire.

But holding another week to find out where he lands is worth it to me.

 
I would think Titans would be interested. Dallas perhaps (if it's true they really believe their OL can lift any competent back -- Montee was competent at one point).

Atlanta maybe - I'm not sure any of their guys are great fits for Shanahan's system.

 
SeanTaylor21 said:
JFS171 said:
SeanTaylor21 said:
Possibility of landing in HOU? Would be a great piece of insurance for Arian.
Actually BOB just expressed frustration with his running game as well... good call out.
Judging by your avatar, I'm assuming you'd welcome him in Charlotte? He certainly doesn't have a lot of miles on the tires, just unsure if he has the 'it' factor to be the man.
Not out of the question... I don't think he's done in the league, but not sure he'll be a star either. Carolina likely thinks they're set at RB. They need WR help more.

 
The ideal fit is indy. Pep doesn't want a speed guy, he wants a guy who can wear down defenses and get more second or third and short situations for luck. Gore is old and their backup situation is murky. Ball can run catch and pass protect and set the college td record. Good injury and age insurance for gore and the best realistic opportunity for ball. But it would be hard for Denver to trade him to a likely playoff rival, so it's a long shot.

 
No NFL team is going to trade for Monte Ball. He's 4th on his team's depth chart behind less than elite guys for a reason. He was never special - just played on an offense in college that made him look special. Many folks have been saying this since he was drafted. He really doesn't have any dominating characteristics to fall back on. He's a one-speed power back that doesn't have the power of CJ Anderson (or a bunch of other guys).

I'd cut bait. Trade him for whatever you can get or dump him and pick up the flavor of the week on waivers.

 
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No NFL team is going to trade for Monte Ball. He's 4th on his team's depth chart behind less than elite guys for a reason. He was never special - just played on an offense in college that made him look special. Many folks have been saying this since he was drafted. He really doesn't have any dominating characteristics to fall back on. He's a one-speed power back that doesn't have the power of CJ Anderson (or a bunch of other guys).

I'd cut bait. Trade him for whatever you can get or dump him and pick up the flavor of the week on waivers.
At this point, if you've held this long, you might as well wait to see what the rest of this week holds. If Montee entered the Dallas backfield, for example, his value goes up.

 
No NFL team is going to trade for Monte Ball. He's 4th on his team's depth chart behind less than elite guys for a reason. He was never special - just played on an offense in college that made him look special. Many folks have been saying this since he was drafted. He really doesn't have any dominating characteristics to fall back on. He's a one-speed power back that doesn't have the power of CJ Anderson (or a bunch of other guys).

I'd cut bait. Trade him for whatever you can get or dump him and pick up the flavor of the week on waivers.
Didn't the Jets just trade for Zac Stacy who had fallen down the Rams depth chart to 3rd or 4th?

 
No NFL team is going to trade for Monte Ball. He's 4th on his team's depth chart behind less than elite guys for a reason. He was never special - just played on an offense in college that made him look special. Many folks have been saying this since he was drafted. He really doesn't have any dominating characteristics to fall back on. He's a one-speed power back that doesn't have the power of CJ Anderson (or a bunch of other guys).

I'd cut bait. Trade him for whatever you can get or dump him and pick up the flavor of the week on waivers.
He isn't elite. But he's pretty good at almost everything. The main knock on him is his high end speed, and without that he'll never create yards the way the true studs do. But he's plenty good enough to start in this league. So are about 60 or 70 other guys. He might even be better than a lot of those 70, but he's not a better fit than hillman or Anderson in Denver and that's all that matters to them. Now look at a guy like forsett, or Rashad Jennings, or joique bell, or Zac Stacy, or Chris ivory, or legarrette Blount, or Dan Herron, or Matt asiata, and on and on - and all those guys have been successful when called upon. I think ball is more talented than a lot of those guys, and in the right situation he could flourish. Ask a Christine Michael owner how much they'd like to hear that has being shopped by his NFL team.

I get that you don't like him, and I know you never have, but I think the advice to trade him now is terrible. You wager the small return you'd get for him now against the real possibility that he goes to a situation that even just looks attractive. Or that he stays on as a backup in Denver, which has been a pretty valuable commodity in its own right over the years. It's not worth it.

 
Wouldn't the Falcons make perfect sense?

Look at the size of their top 4 RB's

Devonta Freeman 5'8" - 206 lbs

Tevin Coleman 5'11" - 206 lbs

Antone Smith 5'9" - 190 lbs

Terron Ward 5'7" - 201

Montee isn't much bigger at 5'11" - 214 lbs

I think he could be valuable in that backfield.

 
No NFL team is going to trade for Monte Ball. He's 4th on his team's depth chart behind less than elite guys for a reason. He was never special - just played on an offense in college that made him look special. Many folks have been saying this since he was drafted. He really doesn't have any dominating characteristics to fall back on. He's a one-speed power back that doesn't have the power of CJ Anderson (or a bunch of other guys).

I'd cut bait. Trade him for whatever you can get or dump him and pick up the flavor of the week on waivers.
At this point, if you've held this long, you might as well wait to see what the rest of this week holds. If Montee entered the Dallas backfield, for example, his value goes up.
I agree with this. Trent and Montee are two separate situations to me. Trent has had his chance(s) and shown he's not worth much. Montee was the most hyped RB last offseason until his appendix decided it would rather be deleted from his body. If Montee goes elsewhere and we're back in this boat, then I would fall into agreement with Holy Schneikes.

 
I think we all struggle with sunk cost. It doesn't matter that you've held him for X years or invested X in his to begin with. The only thing that matters now is what you can get for him now/the value he provides your team now, what you think he will be worth later/the value you think he will provide your team later, and the opportunity cost of using a roster slot on him.

To me, it is clear that he's not starter material, and may not be backup material in the NFL.

 
120 carries for 560 yards at 4.7 yards per carry with 4 tds as a backup, plus 20 catches for 145. He wasn't a third down back running into soft coverage, a lot of those carries were tough yardage carries or running the clock out against teams that knew he was coming. That was good enough to be anointed starter and have them let their successful starter from the previous year go.

If you look at his 2014 season, when hwe rushed back from an appendectomy that left his core strength diminished and led to a season ending groin injury, then yes, that was a bad year. 23 carries for 67 yards and a td against the Colts is not going to get it done. He still had 12 for 60 with 3 catches for 29 against the Chiefs, which isn't too shabby. Then he played two of the toughest defenses in the league, the Seahawks, where he got hurt, and then the Cardinals, where he was injured for the season.

Nothing in his career so far has shown that he's a bad running back. This isn't Trent Richardson running for 3 yards a carry, it's a guy who just doesn't fit the stretch runs that Kubiak uses when he has two other guys in the roster who got the scheme better.

Where you see people worrying about their sunk cost, I see confirmation bias from guys who didn't like him coming into the league.

I don't think anyone ever thought he was a great talent, so I agree with you there. What's changed is his opportunity. And unlike other guys, where sunk cost is certainly a concern (like Christine Michael), the Broncos are reportedly shopping him and may move him before final cuts. It's easy for you to say trade him for whatever you can get or cut him, because you don't own him and wouldn't pay much for him. But they're are other people who like him more than you do and his situation may change soon. If there are people trading him for nothing out they're, I'm buying. It's easy to imagine his value spiking in the next week or next year.

 

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