Mortgage Rates (3 Viewers)

[ChiefD]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

 

[Keerock]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

Yea, I mean, sometimes you start talking to someone that says they will need a mortgage in a state and you really don't like the guy or want to work with him but you need to money so you go through getting licensed in the state for that paycheck. Er, I mean, uh..... I really look forward to working with you!

 

[Keerock]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

Yea, I mean, sometimes you start talking to someone that says they will need a mortgage in a state and you really don't like the guy or want to work with him but you need to money so you go through getting licensed in the state for that paycheck. Er, I mean, uh..... I really look forward to working with you!

I was talking about the bolded above...

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

Yea, I mean, sometimes you start talking to someone that says they will need a mortgage in a state and you really don't like the guy or want to work with him but you need to money so you go through getting licensed in the state for that paycheck. Er, I mean, uh..... I really look forward to working with you!

I was talking about the bolded above...

Expectations that inflation goes down and the economy softens which will drive rates down.

 

[ChiefD]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

Yea, I mean, sometimes you start talking to someone that says they will need a mortgage in a state and you really don't like the guy or want to work with him but you need to money so you go through getting licensed in the state for that paycheck. Er, I mean, uh..... I really look forward to working with you!

You can just say you don't want to work with me. Jeez man, I'm a big boy.

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

Yea, I mean, sometimes you start talking to someone that says they will need a mortgage in a state and you really don't like the guy or want to work with him but you need to money so you go through getting licensed in the state for that paycheck. Er, I mean, uh..... I really look forward to working with you!

You can just say you don't want to work with me. Jeez man, I'm a big boy.

As long as there isn't a KC v LV game around closing time, I think we should be ok.

 

[ChiefD]

@Chadstroma - With interest rates so high does it make any sense to buy down points?

I've never done it and have always heard you should never do it. Just curious.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Chadstroma - With interest rates so high does it make any sense to buy down points?

I've never done it and have always heard you should never do it. Just curious.

Over the long term, you're better off paying down the principal with rates so high right now
If you look at the total you pay back at 7% vs when a lot of people bought or Refi when rates were 3%
You can buy a rate down but you spend money doing it and you aren't likely to see a mortgage from start to end over 30 years

I used to pay more than my mortgage payment to apply more on the principal but at 2.9%...hard for me to to get upset so I've slowed down paying it off.
You can't borrow money at 3% any more so I might as well just slow it down, I've taken the same money and just been dumping it into stocks, mostly Google because they own Youtube/NFL Ticket and I figured a lot of people would be "NEW" You tubers, the stock has been relatively awesome this year.

But I would not waste money buying it down from 8% to 7%, try to pay it off in 8-10 years if you can or when rates fall(cough cough) maybe you can refi down the road.

 

[Chadstroma]

War In Israel Having Impact on Mortgage Bonds​ ​

Mortgage bonds are moving back to their 10-day moving average because of the war in Israel. This is sparking a flight to safety and the purchasing of bonds. Pricing could improve slightly but investors will be patient to see whether further market instability occurs as events unfold.​

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma - With interest rates so high does it make any sense to buy down points?

I've never done it and have always heard you should never do it. Just curious.

Need to get home to type out a response and not on my phone. Short version... HELL NO! But there may be other options that make sense.

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma - With interest rates so high does it make any sense to buy down points?

I've never done it and have always heard you should never do it. Just curious.

No, it does not make sense in most cases. The starting point is that points are a sunk cost. Once you pay them, that cost is locked in forever. When interest rates fall and there is an opportunity to refinance, then you will do so and paying those points becomes pointless (ha! see what I did there?). For it to make sense, you will need to have the loan long enough to recover the cost of the points in interest saved to the point that you would no longer have that loan. For most scenarios, you are talking about several years before the points are recovered and you are actually saving money on the interest savings. My expectation is that there will be ample ability to refinance at significantly lower rates than what we see now in the upcoming couple of years.

An option that could make sense is if you are buying a property and can get sellers concessions, you then use those concessions towards a 2-1 buydown. What this is is that you pay points (paid for by concessions) for a significantly lower rate in the first year of the mortgage, then a little higher the second and then the normal rate on the third and moving forward. This is a much better option within a negotiation. Instead of negotiating a lower purchase price, asking for the concessions instead. This then becomes a 'no cost' option to you. It will help hold the value of the home for you versus lowering comps for the houses sold around you. You get the savings and then should have an option to refinance later.

With where we are at now, most rate sheets I see don't have a par rate. That means, you are going to pay points whether you want to or not. Essentially, lenders know that rates will drop in the future and they will bleed the loans they are doing now so they are getting their money now on them. I would not pay points to lower a loan now as there should be no expectation for you to actually keep that loan. The time to have paid points was a couple years ago when rates were really low and if you expected to keep the property for a long time then it would make sense as you would not be refinancing and if you are not selling then the investment of the points would pay off in interest savings over time.

 

[Chadstroma]

MBA, NAR, NAHB call on the Fed to provide market certainty about its rate path.
(HousingWire by Connie Kim). Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path exacerbated housing affordability: MBA, NAR, NAHB in a letter to Fed Chair Powell. A coalition of housing trade groups - including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - called on the Federal Reserve to provide market certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio.

Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path has "exacerbated housing affordability and created additional disruptions for a real estate market that is already straining to adjust to a dramatic pullback in both mortgage origination and home sale volume," the organization said in a joint letter to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on Monday.

Housing trade groups urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make two clear statements - that the Fed does not contemplate further rate hikes; and the Fed will not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized and mortgage-to-Treasury spreads have normalized. These steps will provide the market greater certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the MBS portfolio and reduce volatility for traders and investors, the organizations noted. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter read.

The central bank currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBSs as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. In efforts to reduce its balance sheet as part of the plan to tighten monetary policy, the Fed is allowing up to $60 billion a month in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBSs to mature and roll off from its holdings.

 

[Redwes25]

MBA, NAR, NAHB call on the Fed to provide market certainty about its rate path.
(HousingWire by Connie Kim). Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path exacerbated housing affordability: MBA, NAR, NAHB in a letter to Fed Chair Powell. A coalition of housing trade groups - including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - called on the Federal Reserve to provide market certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio.

Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path has "exacerbated housing affordability and created additional disruptions for a real estate market that is already straining to adjust to a dramatic pullback in both mortgage origination and home sale volume," the organization said in a joint letter to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on Monday.

Housing trade groups urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make two clear statements - that the Fed does not contemplate further rate hikes; and the Fed will not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized and mortgage-to-Treasury spreads have normalized. These steps will provide the market greater certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the MBS portfolio and reduce volatility for traders and investors, the organizations noted. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter read.

The central bank currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBSs as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. In efforts to reduce its balance sheet as part of the plan to tighten monetary policy, the Fed is allowing up to $60 billion a month in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBSs to mature and roll off from its holdings.

The Fed can never say this and pretty stupid to even ask. Makes the rest of the request seem equally pointless.

 

[Chadstroma]

MBA, NAR, NAHB call on the Fed to provide market certainty about its rate path.
(HousingWire by Connie Kim). Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path exacerbated housing affordability: MBA, NAR, NAHB in a letter to Fed Chair Powell. A coalition of housing trade groups - including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - called on the Federal Reserve to provide market certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio.

Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path has "exacerbated housing affordability and created additional disruptions for a real estate market that is already straining to adjust to a dramatic pullback in both mortgage origination and home sale volume," the organization said in a joint letter to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on Monday.

Housing trade groups urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make two clear statements - that the Fed does not contemplate further rate hikes; and the Fed will not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized and mortgage-to-Treasury spreads have normalized. These steps will provide the market greater certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the MBS portfolio and reduce volatility for traders and investors, the organizations noted. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter read.

The central bank currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBSs as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. In efforts to reduce its balance sheet as part of the plan to tighten monetary policy, the Fed is allowing up to $60 billion a month in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBSs to mature and roll off from its holdings.

The Fed can never say this and pretty stupid to even ask. Makes the rest of the request seem equally pointless.

Pretty close to what I was thinking.... but mine was more along the lines of "has there ever been a request from three extremely powerful lobbying groups that was more impossible to ever happen before?"

But I think it was there way of saying "Dude... you are killing the real estate market... please stop."

 

[The Z Machine]

MBA, NAR, NAHB call on the Fed to provide market certainty about its rate path.
(HousingWire by Connie Kim). Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path exacerbated housing affordability: MBA, NAR, NAHB in a letter to Fed Chair Powell. A coalition of housing trade groups - including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - called on the Federal Reserve to provide market certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio.

Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path has "exacerbated housing affordability and created additional disruptions for a real estate market that is already straining to adjust to a dramatic pullback in both mortgage origination and home sale volume," the organization said in a joint letter to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on Monday.

Housing trade groups urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make two clear statements - that the Fed does not contemplate further rate hikes; and the Fed will not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized and mortgage-to-Treasury spreads have normalized. These steps will provide the market greater certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the MBS portfolio and reduce volatility for traders and investors, the organizations noted. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter read.

The central bank currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBSs as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. In efforts to reduce its balance sheet as part of the plan to tighten monetary policy, the Fed is allowing up to $60 billion a month in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBSs to mature and roll off from its holdings.

The Fed can never say this and pretty stupid to even ask. Makes the rest of the request seem equally pointless.

Pretty close to what I was thinking.... but mine was more along the lines of "has there ever been a request from three extremely powerful lobbying groups that was more impossible to ever happen before?"

But I think it was there way of saying "Dude... you are killing the real estate market... please stop."

And I think the Fed response would be, "too bad, so sad. We have to kill inflation before it ruins everyone's life." That is what it would be if they were blunt and forthright about reality, but they won't be.

 

[-OZ-]

MBA, NAR, NAHB call on the Fed to provide market certainty about its rate path.
(HousingWire by Connie Kim). Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path exacerbated housing affordability: MBA, NAR, NAHB in a letter to Fed Chair Powell. A coalition of housing trade groups - including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - called on the Federal Reserve to provide market certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio.

Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path has "exacerbated housing affordability and created additional disruptions for a real estate market that is already straining to adjust to a dramatic pullback in both mortgage origination and home sale volume," the organization said in a joint letter to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on Monday.

Housing trade groups urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make two clear statements - that the Fed does not contemplate further rate hikes; and the Fed will not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized and mortgage-to-Treasury spreads have normalized. These steps will provide the market greater certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the MBS portfolio and reduce volatility for traders and investors, the organizations noted. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter read.

The central bank currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBSs as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. In efforts to reduce its balance sheet as part of the plan to tighten monetary policy, the Fed is allowing up to $60 billion a month in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBSs to mature and roll off from its holdings.

The Fed can never say this and pretty stupid to even ask. Makes the rest of the request seem equally pointless.

Pretty close to what I was thinking.... but mine was more along the lines of "has there ever been a request from three extremely powerful lobbying groups that was more impossible to ever happen before?"

But I think it was there way of saying "Dude... you are killing the real estate market... please stop."

I’ll go back to my opinion that allowing mortgages to transfer at their rates would help the market a lot. Understandably that’s easier in theory than practice.

 

[Redwes25]

MBA, NAR, NAHB call on the Fed to provide market certainty about its rate path.
(HousingWire by Connie Kim). Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path exacerbated housing affordability: MBA, NAR, NAHB in a letter to Fed Chair Powell. A coalition of housing trade groups - including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - called on the Federal Reserve to provide market certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio.

Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path has "exacerbated housing affordability and created additional disruptions for a real estate market that is already straining to adjust to a dramatic pullback in both mortgage origination and home sale volume," the organization said in a joint letter to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on Monday.

Housing trade groups urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make two clear statements - that the Fed does not contemplate further rate hikes; and the Fed will not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized and mortgage-to-Treasury spreads have normalized. These steps will provide the market greater certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the MBS portfolio and reduce volatility for traders and investors, the organizations noted. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter read.

The central bank currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBSs as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. In efforts to reduce its balance sheet as part of the plan to tighten monetary policy, the Fed is allowing up to $60 billion a month in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBSs to mature and roll off from its holdings.

The Fed can never say this and pretty stupid to even ask. Makes the rest of the request seem equally pointless.

Pretty close to what I was thinking.... but mine was more along the lines of "has there ever been a request from three extremely powerful lobbying groups that was more impossible to ever happen before?"

But I think it was there way of saying "Dude... you are killing the real estate market... please stop."

I’ll go back to my opinion that allowing mortgages to transfer at their rates would help the market a lot. Understandably that’s easier in theory than practice.

That is never going to happen. Different lenders have different credit risks.

 

[Chadstroma]

MBA, NAR, NAHB call on the Fed to provide market certainty about its rate path.
(HousingWire by Connie Kim). Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path exacerbated housing affordability: MBA, NAR, NAHB in a letter to Fed Chair Powell. A coalition of housing trade groups - including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - called on the Federal Reserve to provide market certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio.

Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path has "exacerbated housing affordability and created additional disruptions for a real estate market that is already straining to adjust to a dramatic pullback in both mortgage origination and home sale volume," the organization said in a joint letter to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on Monday.

Housing trade groups urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make two clear statements - that the Fed does not contemplate further rate hikes; and the Fed will not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized and mortgage-to-Treasury spreads have normalized. These steps will provide the market greater certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the MBS portfolio and reduce volatility for traders and investors, the organizations noted. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter read.

The central bank currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBSs as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. In efforts to reduce its balance sheet as part of the plan to tighten monetary policy, the Fed is allowing up to $60 billion a month in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBSs to mature and roll off from its holdings.

The Fed can never say this and pretty stupid to even ask. Makes the rest of the request seem equally pointless.

Pretty close to what I was thinking.... but mine was more along the lines of "has there ever been a request from three extremely powerful lobbying groups that was more impossible to ever happen before?"

But I think it was there way of saying "Dude... you are killing the real estate market... please stop."

I’ll go back to my opinion that allowing mortgages to transfer at their rates would help the market a lot. Understandably that’s easier in theory than practice.

Government backed loans are assumable.... why aren't they used as an option? First, the buyer needs to come up with the difference of the balance versus the sales price. Second, the process is usually gawd awful and takes forever to the point that doing a new loan looks easy and quick.... even if it were at Wells Fargo.

I have no idea how portable mortgages work or don't work in Britain, Australia, etc. I have no idea if they are just a wonderful thing that makes everyones lives better. If they are anything like doing an assumable loan then it wouldn't really matter if they were a thing here or not.... people wouldn't do them just as they don't do assumable mortgages.

 

[Chadstroma]

MBA, NAR, NAHB call on the Fed to provide market certainty about its rate path.
(HousingWire by Connie Kim). Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path exacerbated housing affordability: MBA, NAR, NAHB in a letter to Fed Chair Powell. A coalition of housing trade groups - including the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), National Association of Realtors (NAR) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - called on the Federal Reserve to provide market certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio.

Ongoing market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path has "exacerbated housing affordability and created additional disruptions for a real estate market that is already straining to adjust to a dramatic pullback in both mortgage origination and home sale volume," the organization said in a joint letter to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on Monday.

Housing trade groups urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make two clear statements - that the Fed does not contemplate further rate hikes; and the Fed will not sell off any of its MBS holdings until and unless the housing finance market has stabilized and mortgage-to-Treasury spreads have normalized. These steps will provide the market greater certainty about the Fed's rate path and its plans for the MBS portfolio and reduce volatility for traders and investors, the organizations noted. "We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter read.

The central bank currently holds about $2.6 trillion of MBSs as part of its roughly $8 trillion securities portfolio. In efforts to reduce its balance sheet as part of the plan to tighten monetary policy, the Fed is allowing up to $60 billion a month in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBSs to mature and roll off from its holdings.

The Fed can never say this and pretty stupid to even ask. Makes the rest of the request seem equally pointless.

Pretty close to what I was thinking.... but mine was more along the lines of "has there ever been a request from three extremely powerful lobbying groups that was more impossible to ever happen before?"

But I think it was there way of saying "Dude... you are killing the real estate market... please stop."

And I think the Fed response would be, "too bad, so sad. We have to kill inflation before it ruins everyone's life." That is what it would be if they were blunt and forthright about reality, but they won't be.

Actually... more accurate to say "too bad, so sad. We will kill inflation by killing the economy." because the blunt and forthright honesty about it is that is how you defeat inflation.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

The RE market crashing in some areas, most areas?
I would love to see the Florida prices come down

Mrs and I backed our way into a lot of equity over the last several years in South Florida. Bought a home in Miami NYE 2012/sold it 3 years to the day for close to double and moved to Palm Beach/Jupiter and actually did not buy a home right away...mistake mistake mistake

-We bought a condo about 5 years ago and I'm almost embarrassed how fast it's gone up. Rent alone in the condos where I live is around $3,000 a month now(used to be around $2k a month) and my P&I alone is around $800 a month and I have no plans on moving out of here and using it for rental income, why? Because I cannot afford the price of many 2,500 sq ft homes around the NPB/Treasure Coast area where we are now. It's outrageous what they want for homes in parts of Florida.

Now my MIL will find you affordable RE in areas you don't want to live, some people might not want to live, rural sections and believe me there is more than you think throughout Middle and North Florida, South Florida not so much.

-My point is that even with all this home equity, there's really not much we can do with it right now.

 

[Chadstroma]

Core inflation makes the case for a Fed pause.
(HousingWire by Logan Mohtashami). The Fed feels much better today because of all the rate hikes they have done to get the Fed funds rate above the growth rate of inflation. Thursday's CPI report was good because it shows core inflation, which the Fed cares about, is trending in the right direction. The Fed feels much better today because of all the rate hikes they have done to get the Fed funds rate above the growth rate of inflation.

Last year, CPI core inflation was running at 6.3%, and shelter inflation was still higher even though the data line was set to cool down. I talked about this on CNBC when they asked me to forecast the reality of rent inflation in 2023. Over a year has passed since that day, and core inflation is running at 4.1%, lower than the Fed funds rate.

 

[Chadstroma]

Rates Holding Steady​ ​

The market is dealing with a see-saw effect in bond prices in response to the conflict in the Middle East, which is pushing investors away from the risk of stocks and pushing them toward the safety of bonds. Last week, we felt a breath of fresh air with the market as core inflation showed that it’s trending in the right direction—which is exactly what the Federal Reserve was looking for following their latest rate hike. There’s a lot of data coming this week, but nothing that should cause rates to move drastically in either direction. For now, markets will remain difficult to predict and rates are holding steady from their positions last week.​

 

[BassNBrew]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

Here... we will gladly give you two hamburgers today if you stop getting a hamburger every month from us!!!

 

[ChiefD]

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

Not sure, and honestly this is not really in my comfort level. If we move it will be out of state 10 hours away and I just don't want the headache of trying to manage a rental from that distance. Plus, I really like my neighbors here in KC and wouldn't want to do that to them.

If I'm moving at least my house will give them a good comp if they ever decide to sell.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

Not sure, and honestly this is not really in my comfort level. If we move it will be out of state 10 hours away and I just don't want the headache of trying to manage a rental from that distance. Plus, I really like my neighbors here in KC and wouldn't want to do that to them.

If I'm moving at least my house will give them a good comp if they ever decide to sell.

Keep it and do the rental. Get a management company. Your neighbors will do what’s on their best interests. So should you. whats The difference in your mortgage and rental comps? If it makes sense do it.

 

[BassNBrew]

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

Not sure, and honestly this is not really in my comfort level. If we move it will be out of state 10 hours away and I just don't want the headache of trying to manage a rental from that distance. Plus, I really like my neighbors here in KC and wouldn't want to do that to them.

If I'm moving at least my house will give them a good comp if they ever decide to sell.

You should be able to pay someone 8-10% to handle that. Regarding the neighbors, you're just as likely to sell to a douche as rent to one.

I have dozens of owners now sitting on 1/2 million dollar homes paid for by their tenants. It's a great avenue to increase wealth and that 3% mortgage will always be a competitive advantage.

 

[BassNBrew]

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

Not sure, and honestly this is not really in my comfort level. If we move it will be out of state 10 hours away and I just don't want the headache of trying to manage a rental from that distance. Plus, I really like my neighbors here in KC and wouldn't want to do that to them.

If I'm moving at least my house will give them a good comp if they ever decide to sell.

Keep it and do the rental. Get a management company. Your neighbors will do what’s on their best interests. So should you. whats The difference in your mortgage and rental comps? If it makes sense do it.

https://imgur.com/MH5sW2G

This guy knows things...

 

[Snotbubbles]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

The RE market crashing in some areas, most areas?
I would love to see the Florida prices come down

Mrs and I backed our way into a lot of equity over the last several years in South Florida. Bought a home in Miami NYE 2012/sold it 3 years to the day for close to double and moved to Palm Beach/Jupiter and actually did not buy a home right away...mistake mistake mistake

-We bought a condo about 5 years ago and I'm almost embarrassed how fast it's gone up. Rent alone in the condos where I live is around $3,000 a month now(used to be around $2k a month) and my P&I alone is around $800 a month and I have no plans on moving out of here and using it for rental income, why? Because I cannot afford the price of many 2,500 sq ft homes around the NPB/Treasure Coast area where we are now. It's outrageous what they want for homes in parts of Florida.

Now my MIL will find you affordable RE in areas you don't want to live, some people might not want to live, rural sections and believe me there is more than you think throughout Middle and North Florida, South Florida not so much.

-My point is that even with all this home equity, there's really not much we can do with it right now.

There is almost no inventory to buy. I remember back when rates were low I'd do a search and get 5 pages of hits. Now I do a search and get 5 hits, same area.

 

[-OZ-]

There is almost no inventory to buy. I remember back when rates were low I'd do a search and get 5 pages of hits. Now I do a search and get 5 hits, same area.

I guess it depends on the area but I have three areas I’m keeping an eye on and get daily emails from each. One has at least dozens of houses, villas, condos available. The others have a dozen or more - those two searches are limited to waterfront.

 

[ChiefD]

There is almost no inventory to buy. I remember back when rates were low I'd do a search and get 5 pages of hits. Now I do a search and get 5 hits, same area.

I guess it depends on the area but I have three areas I’m keeping an eye on and get daily emails from each. One has at least dozens of houses, villas, condos available. The others have a dozen or more - those two searches are limited to waterfront.

Yeah, it's kind of a mixed bag for us. We are looking in mid to northern wisconsin. Either lakefront or a place with over an acre of land. There are enough options up there to accomodate what we need. With our budget it will be hard to get the right lake-front property so we expanded our search to something with property.

 

[ChiefD]

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

Not sure, and honestly this is not really in my comfort level. If we move it will be out of state 10 hours away and I just don't want the headache of trying to manage a rental from that distance. Plus, I really like my neighbors here in KC and wouldn't want to do that to them.

If I'm moving at least my house will give them a good comp if they ever decide to sell.

Keep it and do the rental. Get a management company. Your neighbors will do what’s on their best interests. So should you. whats The difference in your mortgage and rental comps? If it makes sense do it.

The rental prices in our area are nuts. So I would certainly do well on that end.

The problem is we need the cash for the downpayment on a new place. I can't afford to pay on two mortgages and a HELOC loan. Our house isn't paid off. Doesn't seem to make much sense to me.

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

The RE market crashing in some areas, most areas?
I would love to see the Florida prices come down

Mrs and I backed our way into a lot of equity over the last several years in South Florida. Bought a home in Miami NYE 2012/sold it 3 years to the day for close to double and moved to Palm Beach/Jupiter and actually did not buy a home right away...mistake mistake mistake

-We bought a condo about 5 years ago and I'm almost embarrassed how fast it's gone up. Rent alone in the condos where I live is around $3,000 a month now(used to be around $2k a month) and my P&I alone is around $800 a month and I have no plans on moving out of here and using it for rental income, why? Because I cannot afford the price of many 2,500 sq ft homes around the NPB/Treasure Coast area where we are now. It's outrageous what they want for homes in parts of Florida.

Now my MIL will find you affordable RE in areas you don't want to live, some people might not want to live, rural sections and believe me there is more than you think throughout Middle and North Florida, South Florida not so much.

-My point is that even with all this home equity, there's really not much we can do with it right now.

There is almost no inventory to buy. I remember back when rates were low I'd do a search and get 5 pages of hits. Now I do a search and get 5 hits, same area.

I forget the actual percentage but it is something like 75% of all mortgages in the country are under 4% right now. People are only selling now if they don't have to move (selling a rental, making the primary a rental, two families consolidating etc) or they absolutely have to move. No one wants to give up their 4% or lower mortgage to get a new home with 7 or 8%

I advise a lot of FTHBers, for example, a FB group with over 10K members that I run, and I keep telling them DO NOT wait to buy when rates go lower because you will have an even harder time finding something. There is so much bottled up demand right now and so much of that has the thinking that they will just buy when rates go down. Well, guess how many other people have that same thought? Buy now, if can qualify and the payments work for your budget, and then refinance later when rates go down and let all the others scramble for the low inventory (though it should improve as rates go down when, it will still be low inventory) with prices going up again.

 

[Chadstroma]

There is almost no inventory to buy. I remember back when rates were low I'd do a search and get 5 pages of hits. Now I do a search and get 5 hits, same area.

I guess it depends on the area but I have three areas I’m keeping an eye on and get daily emails from each. One has at least dozens of houses, villas, condos available. The others have a dozen or more - those two searches are limited to waterfront.

Waterfront makes me wonder if there are a lot of STR's and 2nd homes looking to sell.

RE is always local but it is pretty standard that everywhere is low inventory right now and it is just a question of how low that inventory is.

 

[-OZ-]

There is almost no inventory to buy. I remember back when rates were low I'd do a search and get 5 pages of hits. Now I do a search and get 5 hits, same area.

I guess it depends on the area but I have three areas I’m keeping an eye on and get daily emails from each. One has at least dozens of houses, villas, condos available. The others have a dozen or more - those two searches are limited to waterfront.

Waterfront makes me wonder if there are a lot of STR's and 2nd homes looking to sell.

RE is always local but it is pretty standard that everywhere is low inventory right now and it is just a question of how low that inventory is.

Almost certainly the case, the third being Hilton Head island which is practically guaranteed to be investment properties and 2nd or 3rd… homes.

That said, my home city has 610 properties listed on Redfin right now. 487 houses. We’re not a huge city but we are growing.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

Not sure, and honestly this is not really in my comfort level. If we move it will be out of state 10 hours away and I just don't want the headache of trying to manage a rental from that distance. Plus, I really like my neighbors here in KC and wouldn't want to do that to them.

If I'm moving at least my house will give them a good comp if they ever decide to sell.

Keep it and do the rental. Get a management company. Your neighbors will do what’s on their best interests. So should you. whats The difference in your mortgage and rental comps? If it makes sense do it.

The rental prices in our area are nuts. So I would certainly do well on that end.

The problem is we need the cash for the downpayment on a new place. I can't afford to pay on two mortgages and a HELOC loan. Our house isn't paid off. Doesn't seem to make much sense to me.

Would the rent pay the mortgage and the heloc?

 

[ChiefD]

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

Not sure, and honestly this is not really in my comfort level. If we move it will be out of state 10 hours away and I just don't want the headache of trying to manage a rental from that distance. Plus, I really like my neighbors here in KC and wouldn't want to do that to them.

If I'm moving at least my house will give them a good comp if they ever decide to sell.

Keep it and do the rental. Get a management company. Your neighbors will do what’s on their best interests. So should you. whats The difference in your mortgage and rental comps? If it makes sense do it.

The rental prices in our area are nuts. So I would certainly do well on that end.

The problem is we need the cash for the downpayment on a new place. I can't afford to pay on two mortgages and a HELOC loan. Our house isn't paid off. Doesn't seem to make much sense to me.

Would the rent pay the mortgage and the heloc?

I have no idea.

And I know it's probably a good idea. But I'll be honest: I'm 54 and this move is going to be stressful on it's own. I'm moving my family away from everything they have ever known for this new adventure.

From now until May I have to get my house ready to sell. Which means every weekend just tightening things up with fresh paint, minor repairs and such so we can be ready March 1 or so. I also have a son graduating high school and getting him ready for college.

Then, move at the end of June into our temporary accomodations and try to find a house before school starts in the fall. In an area I know very little about. Oh, and I have to find a job.

The last thing I need is more stress. I know you guys are for sure dead-on in your thought process here. But when I make this move, I want to be free and clear of my obligations in Kansas City other than remaining family which we will come visit now and again.

I do appreciate your thought processes here. It's just not for me. Or my wife. We are taking on a ton of risk as it is: just don't want to add to the pile.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Anyway you can keep your current home as a rental and get a HELOC to pay the downpayment on the new place?

Every year I get a cash buyout offer of around $1500 for a pension plan that will pay me $650 a month when I retire. I would equate selling a home with 3% mortgage to that. I would turn over every rock to find a way to keep that mortgage.

Not sure, and honestly this is not really in my comfort level. If we move it will be out of state 10 hours away and I just don't want the headache of trying to manage a rental from that distance. Plus, I really like my neighbors here in KC and wouldn't want to do that to them.

If I'm moving at least my house will give them a good comp if they ever decide to sell.

Keep it and do the rental. Get a management company. Your neighbors will do what’s on their best interests. So should you. whats The difference in your mortgage and rental comps? If it makes sense do it.

The rental prices in our area are nuts. So I would certainly do well on that end.

The problem is we need the cash for the downpayment on a new place. I can't afford to pay on two mortgages and a HELOC loan. Our house isn't paid off. Doesn't seem to make much sense to me.

Would the rent pay the mortgage and the heloc?

I have no idea.

And I know it's probably a good idea. But I'll be honest: I'm 54 and this move is going to be stressful on it's own. I'm moving my family away from everything they have ever known for this new adventure.

From now until May I have to get my house ready to sell. Which means every weekend just tightening things up with fresh paint, minor repairs and such so we can be ready March 1 or so. I also have a son graduating high school and getting him ready for college.

Then, move at the end of June into our temporary accomodations and try to find a house before school starts in the fall. In an area I know very little about. Oh, and I have to find a job.

The last thing I need is more stress. I know you guys are for sure dead-on in your thought process here. But when I make this move, I want to be free and clear of my obligations in Kansas City other than remaining family which we will come visit now and again.

I do appreciate your thought processes here. It's just not for me. Or my wife. We are taking on a ton of risk as it is: just don't want to add to the pile.

Why are you moving? I missed that if you mentioned earlier.

 

[ChiefD]

Why are you moving? I missed that if you mentioned earlier.

We haven't officially decided but we are about 90% sure. And for a couple of reasons:

1. My oldest son has an offer to kick at a college up near Milwaukee.

2. My second son who is 15 is a massive fish-head. Obsessive. The day he would graduate high school he would move there. And the type of water up there compared to Kansas is just not comparable. He will make a career in fishing. He's not the college type, so his plan is to look into a trade or look into an apprenticeship with some of the marine manufacturers based up near there. His cousin (my nephew) also fishes a ton up there and is planning on living up there after college. So they have talked about some future things in the fishing industry.

3. My daughter hates the heat and the summers here. She is more of an outdoorsy, hiking girl, so there is just so much to do in that regard up there.

4. We are planning to retire there eventually anyway. With an eye toward a winter place in the Naples area. Like a condo or something.

So, all of things are pointing us in that direction now. And while I'm still young-ish to fix up a place and get it to our liking before I retire in 8 years or so. Time for the next phase of our family adventure.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Why are you moving? I missed that if you mentioned earlier.

We haven't officially decided but we are about 90% sure. And for a couple of reasons:

1. My oldest son has an offer to kick at a college up near Milwaukee.

2. My second son who is 15 is a massive fish-head. Obsessive. The day he would graduate high school he would move there. And the type of water up there compared to Kansas is just not comparable. He will make a career in fishing. He's not the college type, so his plan is to look into a trade or look into an apprenticeship with some of the marine manufacturers based up near there. His cousin (my nephew) also fishes a ton up there and is planning on living up there after college. So they have talked about some future things in the fishing industry.

3. My daughter hates the heat and the summers here. She is more of an outdoorsy, hiking girl, so there is just so much to do in that regard up there.

4. We are planning to retire there eventually anyway. With an eye toward a winter place in the Naples area. Like a condo or something.

So, all of things are pointing us in that direction now. And while I'm still young-ish to fix up a place and get it to our liking before I retire in 8 years or so. Time for the next phase of our family adventure.

Good luck with it all. Hope everything works out. Me being back in the Twin Cities, we'd be neighbors!

 

[dkp993]

have no idea.

And I know it's probably a good idea. But I'll be honest: I'm 54 and this move is going to be stressful on it's own. I'm moving my family away from everything they have ever known for this new adventure.

From now until May I have to get my house ready to sell. Which means every weekend just tightening things up with fresh paint, minor repairs and such so we can be ready March 1 or so. I also have a son graduating high school and getting him ready for college.

Then, move at the end of June into our temporary accomodations and try to find a house before school starts in the fall. In an area I know very little about. Oh, and I have to find a job.

The last thing I need is more stress. I know you guys are for sure dead-on in your thought process here. But when I make this move, I want to be free and clear of my obligations in Kansas City other than remaining family which we will come visit now and again.

I do appreciate your thought processes here. It's just not for me. Or my wife. We are taking on a ton of risk as it is: just don't want to add to the pile.

Yeah, but have you thought about renting out your current home instead of selling? Might be a good move.

 

[BassNBrew]

Why are you moving? I missed that if you mentioned earlier.

We haven't officially decided but we are about 90% sure. And for a couple of reasons:

1. My oldest son has an offer to kick at a college up near Milwaukee.

2. My second son who is 15 is a massive fish-head. Obsessive. The day he would graduate high school he would move there. And the type of water up there compared to Kansas is just not comparable. He will make a career in fishing. He's not the college type, so his plan is to look into a trade or look into an apprenticeship with some of the marine manufacturers based up near there. His cousin (my nephew) also fishes a ton up there and is planning on living up there after college. So they have talked about some future things in the fishing industry.

3. My daughter hates the heat and the summers here. She is more of an outdoorsy, hiking girl, so there is just so much to do in that regard up there.

4. We are planning to retire there eventually anyway. With an eye toward a winter place in the Naples area. Like a condo or something.

So, all of things are pointing us in that direction now. And while I'm still young-ish to fix up a place and get it to our liking before I retire in 8 years or so. Time for the next phase of our family adventure.

So rent the home in KC and when you are ready to buy the 2nd home in Naples, do a 1031 exchange. Basically your tenants would pay for your winter place.

Anyway, sounds like a fun adventure.

 

[-OZ-]

Why are you moving? I missed that if you mentioned earlier.

We haven't officially decided but we are about 90% sure. And for a couple of reasons:

1. My oldest son has an offer to kick at a college up near Milwaukee.

2. My second son who is 15 is a massive fish-head. Obsessive. The day he would graduate high school he would move there. And the type of water up there compared to Kansas is just not comparable. He will make a career in fishing. He's not the college type, so his plan is to look into a trade or look into an apprenticeship with some of the marine manufacturers based up near there. His cousin (my nephew) also fishes a ton up there and is planning on living up there after college. So they have talked about some future things in the fishing industry.

3. My daughter hates the heat and the summers here. She is more of an outdoorsy, hiking girl, so there is just so much to do in that regard up there.

4. We are planning to retire there eventually anyway. With an eye toward a winter place in the Naples area. Like a condo or something.

So, all of things are pointing us in that direction now. And while I'm still young-ish to fix up a place and get it to our liking before I retire in 8 years or so. Time for the next phase of our family adventure.

I still love Kansas but yeah, Minnesota sounds better for all the reasons you listed. It’s crazy but the coldest I’ve ever been was in Kansas and the summers are not that much better than Tennessee / northern Alabama.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Why are you moving? I missed that if you mentioned earlier.

We haven't officially decided but we are about 90% sure. And for a couple of reasons:

1. My oldest son has an offer to kick at a college up near Milwaukee.

2. My second son who is 15 is a massive fish-head. Obsessive. The day he would graduate high school he would move there. And the type of water up there compared to Kansas is just not comparable. He will make a career in fishing. He's not the college type, so his plan is to look into a trade or look into an apprenticeship with some of the marine manufacturers based up near there. His cousin (my nephew) also fishes a ton up there and is planning on living up there after college. So they have talked about some future things in the fishing industry.

3. My daughter hates the heat and the summers here. She is more of an outdoorsy, hiking girl, so there is just so much to do in that regard up there.

4. We are planning to retire there eventually anyway. With an eye toward a winter place in the Naples area. Like a condo or something.

So, all of things are pointing us in that direction now. And while I'm still young-ish to fix up a place and get it to our liking before I retire in 8 years or so. Time for the next phase of our family adventure.

Are you and your son familiar with Tom Boley? He's a somewhat younger (30s?) walleye fisherman out of northern Wisconsin that has a pretty big following. He's been on YouTube for years and still is to some degree but has moved a lot to another platform that I'm not very familiar with. Anyway, he puts out a ton of content, and if your son tried to connect with him and see if he'd use any of his lures or plastics on one of his videos, that could be a huge boost for your son.

 

[ChiefD]

Why are you moving? I missed that if you mentioned earlier.

We haven't officially decided but we are about 90% sure. And for a couple of reasons:

1. My oldest son has an offer to kick at a college up near Milwaukee.

2. My second son who is 15 is a massive fish-head. Obsessive. The day he would graduate high school he would move there. And the type of water up there compared to Kansas is just not comparable. He will make a career in fishing. He's not the college type, so his plan is to look into a trade or look into an apprenticeship with some of the marine manufacturers based up near there. His cousin (my nephew) also fishes a ton up there and is planning on living up there after college. So they have talked about some future things in the fishing industry.

3. My daughter hates the heat and the summers here. She is more of an outdoorsy, hiking girl, so there is just so much to do in that regard up there.

4. We are planning to retire there eventually anyway. With an eye toward a winter place in the Naples area. Like a condo or something.

So, all of things are pointing us in that direction now. And while I'm still young-ish to fix up a place and get it to our liking before I retire in 8 years or so. Time for the next phase of our family adventure.

Are you and your son familiar with Tom Boley? He's a somewhat younger (30s?) walleye fisherman out of northern Wisconsin that has a pretty big following. He's been on YouTube for years and still is to some degree but has moved a lot to another platform that I'm not very familiar with. Anyway, he puts out a ton of content, and if your son tried to connect with him and see if he'd use any of his lures or plastics on one of his videos, that could be a huge boost for your son.

Good idea.

I don't know of him but I'd bet $100 my son does.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

@Chadstroma - any idea what we might see in the spring? Contemplating a move to Wisconsin around May of 2024. Makes me want to puke to give up my sweet interest rate but sometimes life takes a guy in a different direction.

I will start off by saying "hell if I know"

What I am seeing is most predict rates to have meaningful drop in late 2024/early 2025 with rates being fairly stable until then. Of course there are outlier predictions of even higher rates or quicker drops but most seem to point to about a year or more from now to get relief on the rates.

I don't expect anything to change much without any unexpected things to happen (severe economic turndown, jump in inflation up or down, etc) into Spring of next year.

It is going to suck to leave your sweet rate now. The good news is that you should be able to refinance to get closer to that sweet rate not long after but the bad news is likely not close to that sweet rate.

The other thing I can add is that I have added a ton of states I am licensed in and WI is one of them. So, when you are ready to make that move, reach out and I can assist you with it.

Hmmm wonder what might prompt that?

The RE market crashing in some areas, most areas?
I would love to see the Florida prices come down

Mrs and I backed our way into a lot of equity over the last several years in South Florida. Bought a home in Miami NYE 2012/sold it 3 years to the day for close to double and moved to Palm Beach/Jupiter and actually did not buy a home right away...mistake mistake mistake

-We bought a condo about 5 years ago and I'm almost embarrassed how fast it's gone up. Rent alone in the condos where I live is around $3,000 a month now(used to be around $2k a month) and my P&I alone is around $800 a month and I have no plans on moving out of here and using it for rental income, why? Because I cannot afford the price of many 2,500 sq ft homes around the NPB/Treasure Coast area where we are now. It's outrageous what they want for homes in parts of Florida.

Now my MIL will find you affordable RE in areas you don't want to live, some people might not want to live, rural sections and believe me there is more than you think throughout Middle and North Florida, South Florida not so much.

-My point is that even with all this home equity, there's really not much we can do with it right now.

There is almost no inventory to buy. I remember back when rates were low I'd do a search and get 5 pages of hits. Now I do a search and get 5 hits, same area.

I forget the actual percentage but it is something like 75% of all mortgages in the country are under 4% right now. People are only selling now if they don't have to move (selling a rental, making the primary a rental, two families consolidating etc) or they absolutely have to move. No one wants to give up their 4% or lower mortgage to get a new home with 7 or 8%

I advise a lot of FTHBers, for example, a FB group with over 10K members that I run, and I keep telling them DO NOT wait to buy when rates go lower because you will have an even harder time finding something. There is so much bottled up demand right now and so much of that has the thinking that they will just buy when rates go down. Well, guess how many other people have that same thought? Buy now, if can qualify and the payments work for your budget, and then refinance later when rates go down and let all the others scramble for the low inventory (though it should improve as rates go down when, it will still be low inventory) with prices going up again.

I can't advise my clients to sell right now. It's typically better to rent, then sell in 2-4 years when the market becomes accustomed to the new rates. I don't think they are gonna drop for a long time. I do have investors that are paying cash for homes. Mortgage rates being high is only going to widen the wealth gap. The rich don't need the loans (or at the highest levels can loan themselves money at low rates). They'll pay cash and get a fairly safe large ROI relative to the volatility of the stock market.

And like you said, I am encouraging my buyers. They are going to get a low price for the house compared to when the market recovers and they are fighting it out with 10+ other offers. It's actually a great time to buy, and then refinance in a few years. Problem is lack of inventory. Low and high priced home are on the market for a variety of reasons. But the mid-priced homes for a family of 3-5 people. There's no inventory.

 

[ChiefD]

And like you said, I am encouraging my buyers. They are going to get a low price for the house compared to when the market recovers and they are fighting it out with 10+ other offers. It's actually a great time to buy, and then refinance in a few years. Problem is lack of inventory. Low and high priced home are on the market for a variety of reasons. But the mid-priced homes for a family of 3-5 people. There's no inventory.

Yeah, our agent confirmed this as well.

 

[BeTheMatch]

And like you said, I am encouraging my buyers. They are going to get a low price for the house compared to when the market recovers and they are fighting it out with 10+ other offers. It's actually a great time to buy, and then refinance in a few years. Problem is lack of inventory. Low and high priced home are on the market for a variety of reasons. But the mid-priced homes for a family of 3-5 people. There's no inventory.

Yeah, our agent confirmed this as well.

We just bought for this very reason. We had a pretty significant down payment, but man, these rates are brutal. Hoping we can refinance very soon, but who knows (no one).