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Real answer is to get to know actual pros. Easiest way to do that is to offer to provide them with outs. People who do this for a living eventually get accounts limited to death and need fresh accounts to move money through. You can provide those accounts and then begin to learn the trade.
Shocking to me that it would be this difficult...two minds are better than one etc. etc.
It's easy to find people to discuss handicapping with you, there are forums all over the internet for that. As you noted, they're garbage. The people who actually know what they're doing have no use for discussing it with randos on the internet.
Honestly--if there were successful professional gamblers in here--my guess is that they'd be far more inclined to share information privately than publically. Maybe invite them to pm you and once you both "vet" each other and feel like you respect each other's knowledge--you can figure out ways to exchange info (maybe via email, phone calls..etc). It sucks that I'm recommending this as I would personally love to see a discussion amongst successful sports betters (and I'm a person that rarely bets on sports)---but I just don't think you'll find that here. You'll basically get what you've already seen so far in this thread--which doesn't suck for an amateur like me--but I can see how it's not exactly what you were looking for.
Yeah, makes sense...thought I would give it a go but wasn't expecting much.It's easy to find people to discuss handicapping with you, there are forums all over the internet for that. As you noted, they're garbage. The people who actually know what they're doing have no use for discussing it with randos on the internet.
Yep, I follow a lot of them on Twitter and have even had some private conversations with them via Twitter messaging. Almost ended up writing for a prominent betting website as a result of some of those conversations, but not as interesting in writing and am more interested in just winning.
100% agree. That's why I stick to lotto ticket parlays to add some fun to Sundays lol.
Modeling is my favorite part and I have my own, but you can win without models IMHO just difficult to do it over time with real volume. Factors such as cluster injuries/circumstantial factors and trend analysis provide edges that models can't capture.
Why don't you just make your bets, then post them here. You will have gotten "the best of the number." After all, you are a dedicated and profitable NFL bettor. Eventually you can parlay that (get it?) into a private "buy my picks" monthly subscriber base and go tout like every one else in this brave new world. PM me for details.
I wonder how the disruption of traveling to another city and having your regular travel routine be all messed up will impact those visitors. Which do you think is harder, arizona flying across the country, or your first team flight to a new city during a pandemic when all the hotels and restaurants and whatever else you would normally do are all jacked up? Because arizona flying across the country used to be pretty reliably impactful.
Everyone guards their own sauce pretty closely. Football is especially valuable because even though a double-digit ROI probably isn't realistic long-term, limits are crazy high and your outs are practically limitless.
Got u fam: https://plusevanalytics.wordpress.com/2020/06/18/ev-in-the-supercontest/*peeks in to see if he can gain an edge in the office betting pool*
The pro bettors all love playing the NBA, especially 1q, 1h. That edge is gone with the bubble this year.
I'd be interested in your reasoning. I think that is a low probability play. I am not sure they could print an O/U where I would take the under on this game.
...that's partly why I like it.
No preseason would be the biggest reason for me to play under. No one will be sharp for a couple weeks or so. Heck a 34-20 game is high scoring, but a loser.
yeah, I guess I can see that. KC offense is pretty much intact. Offense is timing, and I think they have that down pretty well.
Houston took a downgrade on offense with D Johnson for Hopkins. Since they have Johnson, I would expect them to slow tempo at Arrowhead. Speaking of Arrowhead, the place isn't near as intimidating at 22% capacity, so playcalling and audibles shouldn't be an issue.
Cuts both ways. If you are assuming that offenses and defenses are equally affected by limited reps, then your theory may hold up. I'm not sure that's true. Texans have a rookie defensive coordinator. Chiefs offense hasn't changed a whole lot outside of RB. Shortened preparation time seems like it may be a whole lot worse for the defense in that matchup.
If you mean of the legal US sportsbooks I can only speak to NJ but I think the most betting options tend to be FanDuel, bet365, DraftKings (roughly in that order, depending on sport). And I guess PointsBet if you count all their weird markets. Best lines will vary all over, that's why you have to shop. Offshore you'll find better prices.
Everyone has mostly the same lines, I’d suggest bookmaker.eu and betonline.ag now that 5dimes is gone.
With you on this. PFF just rated Drew Lock the worst QB in the league.
This. The pros share little on forums. The big reason they go on them is the battle for new outs.
Outlets (books). Pros may need multiple outs to get the best lines, or may get cut or need to spread action across multiple outs due to limitsCan someone explain "outs" in this context?
Some books will limit sharp players action. The player doesn't even have to win, just get the best number to get limited or booted. The sharps look for people who are not using their account for a price. Example You using my account and the book thinks its me. You may have a $100 limit on a bet while I have $1000 limits because I'm not profiled as a sharp. Sharps also sign up friends, family, etc to max their chances of winning. In Vegas, they use runners to place bets on their behalf.Can someone explain "outs" in this context?
That darn missed 2pt conversion.
Free money. 
