3 hour lunch
Footballguy
Yeah I like those along with maybe some AZ and Sea, which basically become moneylines
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NFL Betting - (more focused than general thread) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
coyote5
Footballguy
Look, with all due respect, if you think the bets and analysis brian posted is what OP was looking for, you really did not read the initial portion of the thread carefully.@TripItUp is looking for more SERIOUS handicapping. 66% not quite up to his standards.
Again no disrespect to brian, congrats on his early season start, but the rationale for his picks is maybe one level above a hunch. That is not the type of analysis long term winning pro handicappers are basing their wagers on, and that is far from the type of conversation OP was looking to have. Sorry, not trying to be an ####### here but that's the reality.
On the other hand I'm just a square bettor so that's just the type of conversation I enjoy!
I hear what you are saying, but this was his OP. Brian is pretty much meeting those criteria.
What is serious handicapping anyway? Playing trends like the a double digit dog is 8-2-1 against the spread when on the road less than 2time zone differences when the game time has been shifted by the NFL in the month of November? Or is it just being that guy that has access to inside info that Ridley is a little more dinged up than is being reported?
Despite not being serious enough...onward I go...
YTD: 12-5-1
Pittsburgh -7. Pittsburgh coming off a bye but they usually seem to play down to the level of their opponent. Roethlisberger has not been overly impressive but neither have the Eagles. Both D's are solid but I will go with the team with more on O.
Arizona -7. Arizona is 6-2-2 versus the spread as the away team since last year. Jets played decently enough versus Denver last week but who are we fooling here unless they find a running game and keep Murray off the field.
Bengals +13.5. In the last 10 years of this series (20 games), the Ravens have only won by 13.5+, three times. This plus my usual allergy to large spreads and add in the fact the Baltimore is 3-6-1 as a home fav since Lamar became the Man, and back door cover it is.
Seattle -7. Due to some quirk in the schedule, this is the third year in a row that Minnesota has played in Seattle. Seattle was favoured by 3 in each of the previous two (covered both). I'm a Vikings fan and not sold on this team despite last weeks win over Houston.
YTD: 12-5-1
Pittsburgh -7. Pittsburgh coming off a bye but they usually seem to play down to the level of their opponent. Roethlisberger has not been overly impressive but neither have the Eagles. Both D's are solid but I will go with the team with more on O.
Arizona -7. Arizona is 6-2-2 versus the spread as the away team since last year. Jets played decently enough versus Denver last week but who are we fooling here unless they find a running game and keep Murray off the field.
Bengals +13.5. In the last 10 years of this series (20 games), the Ravens have only won by 13.5+, three times. This plus my usual allergy to large spreads and add in the fact the Baltimore is 3-6-1 as a home fav since Lamar became the Man, and back door cover it is.
Seattle -7. Due to some quirk in the schedule, this is the third year in a row that Minnesota has played in Seattle. Seattle was favoured by 3 in each of the previous two (covered both). I'm a Vikings fan and not sold on this team despite last weeks win over Houston.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
Keep up the good work Brian. Newbies like me need all the help we can get. Week one I took advantage of all the promos and so I had some money to throw around week two/three. I really experienced moderate success those weeks. So Week Four I felt like King of the Gambling World and started throwing larger bets around (again to me) like $35.00-$40.00 on AZ and Dallas each, along with multiple different parlays involving them, and I got smacked down to reality. I know losing is part of the game, but this week I will lick my wounds and be back to my bottom feeding ways.
That being said--tonight, I like the under. Brady has limited weapons with all the injuries. Chicago has Foles and well, Foles is Foles. I see a defensive struggle. Also, (as mentioned in the other thread) I like the S. Miller over 46.5 rec yards--especially if Evans can't go tonight.
Good luck all!!
That being said--tonight, I like the under. Brady has limited weapons with all the injuries. Chicago has Foles and well, Foles is Foles. I see a defensive struggle. Also, (as mentioned in the other thread) I like the S. Miller over 46.5 rec yards--especially if Evans can't go tonight.
Good luck all!!
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I worry about the Seahawks giving up 7. In the regular season--from the beginning of 2019--they have only won 4 games by more than 7 points--and one of those games they won by 8 points. They are notorious for being in and winning close games (games separated by one possession or less) and they have one of the worst defenses in the league. I'd personally avoid that game--but if somebody forced me pick a side--I think I'd probably take Minnesota and the points.
facook
Footballguy
YTD: 14-7-1
Steelers -3.5. Browns haven't won in Pittsburgh in 17 years. I'll take the home fav with this modest line.
NE -9.5. Denver are only slightly better than the Jets. If Cam plays, the Pats win big.
Green Bay -1.5. Should be close high scoring game but GB comes out on top.
Miami -8. Miami's smashing of the Niners last week was impressive, the Jets are a mess and have not covered a game thus far in 2020 and it won't start here.
Steelers -3.5. Browns haven't won in Pittsburgh in 17 years. I'll take the home fav with this modest line.
NE -9.5. Denver are only slightly better than the Jets. If Cam plays, the Pats win big.
Green Bay -1.5. Should be close high scoring game but GB comes out on top.
Miami -8. Miami's smashing of the Niners last week was impressive, the Jets are a mess and have not covered a game thus far in 2020 and it won't start here.
leftcoastguy7
Footballguy
Galileo
Footballguy
This novice needs some schooling from you betting experts. How do you interpret this situation in terms of the line movement. NE opened at -10 vs Denver. I am currently seeing -8. I also see the betting trend showing 76% of the spread bets on NE and 67% money on NE. Shouldn't the spread be moving the other way to entice people to bet on the Denver side?
ETA...or am I misinterpreting what these percentages mean? Was looking at Vegasinsider
ETA...or am I misinterpreting what these percentages mean? Was looking at Vegasinsider
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facook
Footballguy
Take this with a grain of salt, but my understanding is those numbers mean essentially nothing. It might reflect the total number of bets of one book, or even just one casino. But it does not reflect the totality of the market in my opinion - none of these websites have the total number of bets of Vegas and/or the off-shores.
The traditional thought would call that "reverse line movement" meaning what you said, and yet the number is going Denver's way so that is the "smart" or "sharp" side. Not necessarily true. At this point I generally ignore those numbers. YMMV.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
I think Denver loses (and I am Denver Homer). I am betting the under--44.5. Gordon, Sutton, Hamler and Fant are out for Denver. Lock is coming back so expect him to be rusty, The Lindsay over 14.5 rec yards, seems like free money with a ton of check downs by Lock. Sony Michel is out for NE. Cam is supposed to be back and I expect him to be equally rusty. I am not calling it a lock, but I can see about a 50% chance of a NE defensive score tomorrow.
I hate to bet against my team, but I did a M/L parlay with NE and GB tomorrow. I am a confirmed bottom feeder though.
I hate to bet against my team, but I did a M/L parlay with NE and GB tomorrow. I am a confirmed bottom feeder though.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
My two gut instinct picks for the week. I expect Arizona to cover the 1point against Dallas. I expect the Rams to cover 2.5 over the 49ers.
YTD: 16-9-1
BUF -13. Yikes, this spread might be too big for this Bills team but the Jets are 0-6 versus the spread this year. The spreads are slowly creeping up in these Jets games but will ride the anti-Jets sentiment one more week.
PIT -2. Battle of undefeated teams here. While the Titans have been sneaky good, will take the Steelers here with this modest line.
Green Bay- 3.5. Packers had their ### handed to them last week versus Tampa. Houston is a near perfect tonic here for the Packers. The Texans D is nowhere as good as the Bucs D.
Sea -3.5. Road team is 9-1-1 against the spread in this series (Seattle is on the road in this game). While the Cards were impressive over a woeful Cowboys team, I'm not sure in this spot. Cards are 4-2 but have wins over SF, Washington, Jets and Dallas with losses to Lions and Panthers.
KC -9. Chiefs are 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 games. Denver pulled a borderline shocker last week beating the Pats. Can they do it twice in a row ? Doubtful. Can they cover the spread ? Maybe.
TB -2.5. Simply put, the Bucs D is superior to the Raiders O. I know the Raiders beat the vaunted KC team two weeks ago but I don't see lighting striking twice.
BUF -13. Yikes, this spread might be too big for this Bills team but the Jets are 0-6 versus the spread this year. The spreads are slowly creeping up in these Jets games but will ride the anti-Jets sentiment one more week.
PIT -2. Battle of undefeated teams here. While the Titans have been sneaky good, will take the Steelers here with this modest line.
Green Bay- 3.5. Packers had their ### handed to them last week versus Tampa. Houston is a near perfect tonic here for the Packers. The Texans D is nowhere as good as the Bucs D.
Sea -3.5. Road team is 9-1-1 against the spread in this series (Seattle is on the road in this game). While the Cards were impressive over a woeful Cowboys team, I'm not sure in this spot. Cards are 4-2 but have wins over SF, Washington, Jets and Dallas with losses to Lions and Panthers.
KC -9. Chiefs are 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 games. Denver pulled a borderline shocker last week beating the Pats. Can they do it twice in a row ? Doubtful. Can they cover the spread ? Maybe.
TB -2.5. Simply put, the Bucs D is superior to the Raiders O. I know the Raiders beat the vaunted KC team two weeks ago but I don't see lighting striking twice.
facook
Footballguy
I also bet Pit -2, but I see they are +1 now.
Kinda like the Arizona side, based on the bye week being a momentum hurdle for Seattle.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
So far--2-1 in my posts here. Let's see if I can transform that into a hugely losing record.
I like falcons -2 against detroit. The falcons are just a completely different team with Julio jones healthy and playing
I like the panthers +7 against the saints. No michael thomas, no emmanuel sanders..etc. I think the saints most likely win the game--but I think their offense not being at full power makes the 7 point spread hard to cover.
I like Dallas +1. I don't see zeke fumbling twice in a row again, and i think a second week of practice does a lot to improve Dalton's chemistry with the wr's. Frankly--I just don't trust any facet of Washingtons game enough to bet on them and give up a point. (Unless they are playing the Jets).
I like falcons -2 against detroit. The falcons are just a completely different team with Julio jones healthy and playing
I like the panthers +7 against the saints. No michael thomas, no emmanuel sanders..etc. I think the saints most likely win the game--but I think their offense not being at full power makes the 7 point spread hard to cover.
I like Dallas +1. I don't see zeke fumbling twice in a row again, and i think a second week of practice does a lot to improve Dalton's chemistry with the wr's. Frankly--I just don't trust any facet of Washingtons game enough to bet on them and give up a point. (Unless they are playing the Jets).
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Saints/Panthers under 50.5
Browns -3 over Cincy
Seattle/arizona over 54.5
Browns -3 over Cincy
Seattle/arizona over 54.5
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Was looking like a decent group of selections before the falcons did what they always do. And this folks is why I don't bet on sports more than maybe once or twice a year. Lol
grateful zed
Footballguy
Gambling is a sin.
YTD: 20-11-1
PIT +3.5. Simply put, I think Pittsburgh is the better team here so will take the points.
Rams -4.5. Rams playing on a short week travelling cross country is usually a recipe for disaster but playing against a rookie QB will even things out.
GB -6.5. Minnesota's D is still bad...Pack big here.
KC -19.5. Line opened at 21 but has since come down...KC has been a lock as fav of late and so has betting against the Jets. Maybe something gives here but maybe nothing gives.
LAC -3.5. Both teams are 2-4 but the Chargers just seem like the better team at this stage.
SF +3. The Niners are 9-2 ATS as the visitor dating back to last year and have covered their last seven as an underdog. Seattle's mediocre D keeps the other teams in games.
Saints -4. The Bears are the most average 5-2 team in the league. Saints are usually solid on the road and the Bears offense is a mess.
PIT +3.5. Simply put, I think Pittsburgh is the better team here so will take the points.
Rams -4.5. Rams playing on a short week travelling cross country is usually a recipe for disaster but playing against a rookie QB will even things out.
GB -6.5. Minnesota's D is still bad...Pack big here.
KC -19.5. Line opened at 21 but has since come down...KC has been a lock as fav of late and so has betting against the Jets. Maybe something gives here but maybe nothing gives.
LAC -3.5. Both teams are 2-4 but the Chargers just seem like the better team at this stage.
SF +3. The Niners are 9-2 ATS as the visitor dating back to last year and have covered their last seven as an underdog. Seattle's mediocre D keeps the other teams in games.
Saints -4. The Bears are the most average 5-2 team in the league. Saints are usually solid on the road and the Bears offense is a mess.
Bills and Pats offenses have been dreadful of late. October Cam is not September Cam (same goes for Josh Allen for that matter). Even with Cam having zero weapons, this smells like a close-ish game.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
YTD: 22-17-1
Washington -3. Washington is coming off a bye while the Giants are entering this game on a short week after the Monday night loss to Tampa. Will trust the Washington front seven over anything the Giants have on offense.
KC -10.5. Despite the nearly weekly double digit spreads, KC has become one of the more reliable covers this season at 6-2 ATS.
Houston -6.5. Battle of two 1-6 teams. One starting a rookie QB and the other team is starting Deshaun Watson.
Seattle -2.5. Bills have been way too inconsistent of late to trust them in this spot, will roll with Seattle on the road with this modest line.
Raiders +1.5. Who knows what version of the Chargers we get this week, will lean with the Raiders who seem to have more on both sides of the ball.
Pittsburgh -13.5. Arguably, one of the best teams in the league playing this dreadful Cowboys team. While the Steelers normally have a habit of playing down to their competition, hopefully they don't let up on the gas in this one.
Washington -3. Washington is coming off a bye while the Giants are entering this game on a short week after the Monday night loss to Tampa. Will trust the Washington front seven over anything the Giants have on offense.
KC -10.5. Despite the nearly weekly double digit spreads, KC has become one of the more reliable covers this season at 6-2 ATS.
Houston -6.5. Battle of two 1-6 teams. One starting a rookie QB and the other team is starting Deshaun Watson.
Seattle -2.5. Bills have been way too inconsistent of late to trust them in this spot, will roll with Seattle on the road with this modest line.
Raiders +1.5. Who knows what version of the Chargers we get this week, will lean with the Raiders who seem to have more on both sides of the ball.
Pittsburgh -13.5. Arguably, one of the best teams in the league playing this dreadful Cowboys team. While the Steelers normally have a habit of playing down to their competition, hopefully they don't let up on the gas in this one.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ravens basically a pickem against the Colts eh?
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
The Bengals are in a nearly identical spot next week that the Saints were going into tonight.
YTD: 23-21-1
The last two weeks have been dreadful thus the slow decent to .500 continues...
Cincy +7.5. The Bengals have only won 3 games in this series in the past 10 years but have been a surprisingly decent 6-1-1 ATS this year. This is either a 5 point game or Pittsburgh wins by double digits, here's hoping the former.
LAR -2. Rams have won the last 4 of 5 versus Seattle. Seattle are 6-2 but have dreadful D and they are a bit of mirage record wise having early wins versus Atlanta/NE/Dallas and a last minute win versus Minnesota. Think the Rams have enough to get the W here.
Baltimore -7. Not sure how New England keeps this one close here.
Raiders -5. Raiders have won the last 4 at home versus the Broncos. In the past 10 games in this series, the average margin of victory is 7.1 points.
SF +9.5. Saints are 6-2 but have only won two games by this big a margin all year and that was both wins over Tampa. Will take the points and hope for a backdoor cover.
The last two weeks have been dreadful thus the slow decent to .500 continues...
Cincy +7.5. The Bengals have only won 3 games in this series in the past 10 years but have been a surprisingly decent 6-1-1 ATS this year. This is either a 5 point game or Pittsburgh wins by double digits, here's hoping the former.
LAR -2. Rams have won the last 4 of 5 versus Seattle. Seattle are 6-2 but have dreadful D and they are a bit of mirage record wise having early wins versus Atlanta/NE/Dallas and a last minute win versus Minnesota. Think the Rams have enough to get the W here.
Baltimore -7. Not sure how New England keeps this one close here.
Raiders -5. Raiders have won the last 4 at home versus the Broncos. In the past 10 games in this series, the average margin of victory is 7.1 points.
SF +9.5. Saints are 6-2 but have only won two games by this big a margin all year and that was both wins over Tampa. Will take the points and hope for a backdoor cover.
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Flash
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
can line shop a bit, and still find Eagles at -3 some places. Eagles have been dreadful this year, but they played the Giants 2 weeks ago, and are coming off their bye where they had plenty of time to prepare. Biggest thing is they are getting healthier too, particularly on the OL. Think they should cover this one
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
You were 22-17-1 on November 5th--and your predictions went 1-5 that week. How are you 21-16-1 now? You are 23-22-1 according to my math.
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I think the 22-17-1 was an error. I remember reading that and thinking the Ls were high.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I don't think so. He might have been 22-16-1--but it wasn't enough to make him 21-16-1 now. I'll have to go back and check when I have some free time after work today
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Maybe edit your most recent prediction post with your updated correct record so those of us following along are all on the same page--if you don't mind.brianj74 said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Steelers -7 looks ok.
Seahawks moneyline
Seahawks moneyline
YTD: 25-24-1
KC -6.5. KC coming off a bye and they are money on the road ATS within their division. I know the Raiders beat them earlier this year but lightning does not strike twice.
Miami -3. Dolphins have covered 16 of the last 21 (!). This has the makings of a trap let-down game with the Dolphins playing on the road versus the Broncos but if you fancy yourself a playoff team, you should be winning a game like this.
Minnesota -7.5. Andy Dalton returning should help a bit for the Cowboys not sure how they stop Dalvin Cook.
Jets +8.5. Chargers find ways to lose despite decent showings but this line seems a bit rich for my liking.
Rams +3.5. Not sure the Rams win this but I think they keep it close.
KC -6.5. KC coming off a bye and they are money on the road ATS within their division. I know the Raiders beat them earlier this year but lightning does not strike twice.
Miami -3. Dolphins have covered 16 of the last 21 (!). This has the makings of a trap let-down game with the Dolphins playing on the road versus the Broncos but if you fancy yourself a playoff team, you should be winning a game like this.
Minnesota -7.5. Andy Dalton returning should help a bit for the Cowboys not sure how they stop Dalvin Cook.
Jets +8.5. Chargers find ways to lose despite decent showings but this line seems a bit rich for my liking.
Rams +3.5. Not sure the Rams win this but I think they keep it close.
YTD: 26-28-1
Browns -6.5. Jacksonville is playing for the first overall pick. I'm a tad nervous about this line (this is the Browns, after all and are a mere 3-4 as a fav ATS this year).
Jets +7. Miami smashed the Jets earlier this year but the Fish are coming off a road loss to Denver and the Jets have been feistier of late. Think this stays close.
Arizona -2.5. This reeks of a trap betting on the Cards on the road with a possibly damaged Kyler Murray but the Pats team has been wildly inconsistent this year.
NYG -5.5. Giants coming off a bye and still in the hunt for NFC East with a mere 3 wins thus far. Cincy is starting a new QB which should limit their offense. Do you G-Men really deserve to be favs over anyone (outside of maybe Jacksonville or the Jets) ?
KC -3. A Chiefs team favoured by a mere 3 points over the Bucs, must be a mirage. The means the Bucs will roll (or at least cover).
Browns -6.5. Jacksonville is playing for the first overall pick. I'm a tad nervous about this line (this is the Browns, after all and are a mere 3-4 as a fav ATS this year).
Jets +7. Miami smashed the Jets earlier this year but the Fish are coming off a road loss to Denver and the Jets have been feistier of late. Think this stays close.
Arizona -2.5. This reeks of a trap betting on the Cards on the road with a possibly damaged Kyler Murray but the Pats team has been wildly inconsistent this year.
NYG -5.5. Giants coming off a bye and still in the hunt for NFC East with a mere 3 wins thus far. Cincy is starting a new QB which should limit their offense. Do you G-Men really deserve to be favs over anyone (outside of maybe Jacksonville or the Jets) ?
KC -3. A Chiefs team favoured by a mere 3 points over the Bucs, must be a mirage. The means the Bucs will roll (or at least cover).
kevzilla
Footballguy
Mr.Pack
Footballguy
YTD: 26-32-2
KC -14. KC smashed the Broncos earlier this year (43-16). No reason to think this will be closer than two touchdowns.
Raiders -8. Raiders were dreadful last week, this plus an early East Coast game spells trouble (thankfully it is versus the Jets) but the Raiders are in a virtual must-win game here if they have playoff aspirations. Not super happy with this line but will roll with the Raiders in this one.
Tennessee -5.5. Browns playing second consecutive road game here. Here's hoping that the Titans limit Cleveland's ground game.
Bears -3. New coach for the Lions but it won't matter. Bears just need a little life on offense to win this one.
Saints -3. Can the Saints beat the Falcons twice in three weeks ? Yes.
Packers -8.5. Eagles are a mess.
Bills -1.5.
KC -14. KC smashed the Broncos earlier this year (43-16). No reason to think this will be closer than two touchdowns.
Raiders -8. Raiders were dreadful last week, this plus an early East Coast game spells trouble (thankfully it is versus the Jets) but the Raiders are in a virtual must-win game here if they have playoff aspirations. Not super happy with this line but will roll with the Raiders in this one.
Tennessee -5.5. Browns playing second consecutive road game here. Here's hoping that the Titans limit Cleveland's ground game.
Bears -3. New coach for the Lions but it won't matter. Bears just need a little life on offense to win this one.
Saints -3. Can the Saints beat the Falcons twice in three weeks ? Yes.
Packers -8.5. Eagles are a mess.
Bills -1.5.
