I'm concerned that the whole patriot offense takes a big hit w/o Hernandez. His versatility is what makes the current offense click. Gronk and Amendola can both be contained be doubleteam or scheme. No Hernandez is a giant monkeywrench, and will make retooling difficult at this point. IMO, they become what they were back in the early 2000s, whatever that was. Strong D, ball control short passing game based on the shotgun spread is my guess. Brady is going to have to rely on a bunch of unknowns, and I guess they will struggle early.
The 2003 Patriots were 14-2 and won the Superbowl. This team’s rushing attack was split between Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk, both with about 180 rushes and 640 yards. The passing attack had 5 guys with nearly 30 receptions or more: Branch (57, 803,3) Faulk (48,440,0), Troy Brown (40, 472,4), Daniel Graham (38, 409,4), David Givens (34,510,6), and Christian Fauria (28,205,2). Three WR’s, 2 TE, and a RB.
Brady threw for 3620 yards, 23 TDs and 12 ints. Pretty low by today’s standards, but good for 6th in yards, 10th in TDs.
This is pretty close to what I expect the 2013 Patriots offense to look like w/o Hernandez: Brady coming in around QB6-8, and passing yards and TD’s pretty evenly distributed to a bunch of nobodys. Obviously, we would expect Gronk and Amendola to be at the top of the receptions and yards list, but I expect the passing distribution to be so diluted that their value is limited.
IMO, the Patriots won the superbowls early on the basis of team unity above individual performance. They have gotten away with that in 2007 when they brought in Moss and then they focused their offense around a few key players – Moss, Welker, Gronk, Hernandez. I think that in the absence of Welker and Hernandez and a limited Gronk, Belichick will look back at how he became successful in the first place, which was more about spreading it around.
From a fantasy perspective, this isn’t a great place to be. If there is value here, it’s in the bottom tier guys as there won’t be a huge difference between them and the guys at the top of the FF points food chain.