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No Mike Gillislee thread? Mike Gilleslee thread (1 Viewer)

If Mike Gillislee can't go, anyone have insight who's the next man up?  Wondering if Jonathan Williams is a desperation flex play as the Bills will still run the ball.  Or is it certain Bush gets most of the carries? Just hard to see him in that role. 

 
Not sure what tangible value Gill has moving forward..  Play Seattle next week then a bye..  Shady would really need to snap that thing for him to have any long term prospects..  Going back and forth between playing Gill v. Pats or J.Hill v. Wash...

 
I can totally see a pedestrian game for Gillislee as NE comes out fast with Brady and a vengeful Belichik forcing Tyrod to pass leaving Gilislee with 12-40 rushing and 3-30 receiving. Or something like that

 
not that anyone cares about specifics but I'm going to try to find a better option today even if that means dropping Gillislee. Hate the matchup this week and next.  Hate Rex's games.  

 
HW_53 said:
Not sure what tangible value Gill has moving forward..  Play Seattle next week then a bye..  Shady would really need to snap that thing for him to have any long term prospects..  Going back and forth between playing Gill v. Pats or J.Hill v. Wash...
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i'd lean towards hill if it helps at all... WASH ranks near the bottom of the league against the run

 
Ugh. Thanks to byes/injuries, my other options are Howard, DGB, Ty Williams vs Denver, or Clive freakin' Walford.

Might just have to roll him out there and hope. At least we know Shady's out.

 
I have the same situation and I independently chose Kelley also.

Even though every expert site I go to has the opposite.

I think Kelley is the play because:
Better game script
Going against easier Run D
Coach said he's the Jones Replacement
Better O-Line

But really, its a dart throw.

 
Personally I think Gillislee is a good RB and would love to see him get 15 carries after a full week of practice with the 1st string but I've abandoned ship.

 
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Bills will use a "rotation" at running back and "ride the hot hand" against the Patriots.

 
In consideration at flex with Lamar Miller news being more pessimistic. 

But tough matchup and rotation and injury leads me to lean toward K Benjamin or Mike Thomas.

 
Didn't find a better option so I went with Gill. Worked out ok. hope Rex keeps McCoy out for as long as it takes for him to fully heal. 

 
Markus P Dub said:
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Bills will use a "rotation" at running back and "ride the hot hand" against the Patriots.
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sometimes I wish I didn't see #### like this. same with the don Jackson crap the week before

 
Gillislee - 55% - utilized 15 times

Bush - 33% - 5 times

Williams - 24% - 5 times

Gil leads the committee by a rather fair margin but Bush eats into his targets and Williams into his GL touches. Gil looks good though, I believe only Howard had more yards after contact last week.

Hightower just ran on SEA (26/102/0) so Gil could as well, he just won't get the same type of opportunity.

 
SameSongNDance said:
Gillislee - 55% - utilized 15 times

Bush - 33% - 5 times

Williams - 24% - 5 times

Gil leads the committee by a rather fair margin but Bush eats into his targets and Williams into his GL touches. Gil looks good though, I believe only Howard had more yards after contact last week.

Hightower just ran on SEA (26/102/0) so Gil could as well, he just won't get the same type of opportunity.
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Could've been game script too. Pats were crushing them early. Agree that Gil looked good, some good mobility and elusiveness. Gil also got ROCKED in the first drive and had to take a breather for a few sets of downs (IIRC) which led to more Bush/Williams.

 
grateful zed said:
future in dynasty?
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This guy looked so talented when given the chance last year. Any possibility  he ends up in a spot where he gets more use next year?  I'm not sure of  his contract situation, but I'm hoping for the best and considering a relatively low risk investment to keep him. 

 
kawaihae said:
This guy looked so talented when given the chance last year. Any possibility  he ends up in a spot where he gets more use next year?  I'm not sure of  his contract situation, but I'm hoping for the best and considering a relatively low risk investment to keep him. 
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I believe he is a restricted free agent. I doubt the Bills let him go anywhere, but you never know.

 
Bills restricted free agent RB Mike Gillislee signed a two-year, $6.4 million offer sheet with the Patriots.

Per NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, the deal includes $4 million in 2017. It's designed to be difficult to match, but it won't be impossible. The Bills have five days to make a decision. With Gillislee tendered at the original-round level, the Pats would owe the Bills a fifth-rounder if they let Gillislee walk. Gillislee has showed explosion and power as a change-of-pace back. He would be an intriguing addition in New England, and likely mean the end of LeGarrette Blount's time in Foxboro.

Related: Patriots
 
Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter 
Apr 18 - 1:42 PM
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The Boston Herald reports the Bills are unlikely to match New England's two-year, $6.4 million offer for RFA Mike Gillislee.

Yikes. It means the Bills are likely to lose an RFA to the Patriots for the second straight year after 2016's Chris Hogan deal. An extremely valuable backup behind LeSean McCoy, Gillislee could have been tendered at the second-round level for just $1 million more. As it stands, Gillislee will net the Bills a fifth-rounder if they indeed can't match.
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Obviously it's hard to question anything the Pats do with their success, but it just seems odd that they went out and signed two career backup RBs for relatively big money this offseason when they had Lewis and White and could have brought Blount back for less.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
Obviously it's hard to question anything the Pats do with their success, but it just seems odd that they went out and signed two career backup RBs for relatively big money this offseason when they had Lewis and White and could have brought Blount back for less.
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This should shed some light...

"Today the Patriots signed restricted free agent running back Mike Gillislee to an offer sheet that they hope the Bills won’t match, and previously the Patriots signed running back Rex Burkhead away from the Bengals. What do Gillislee and Burkhead have in common? The average fan may not know a lot about them, but the analytics people love them.Analytics website FootballOutsiders.com ranked Gillislee as the most efficient running back in the NFL last year, and Burkhead as No. 2. Analytics website NumberFire also had Gillislee first and Burkhead second. Analyst Warren Sharp’s metrics had Gillislee first and Burkhead second in success rate, and Burkhead first and Gillislee second in the fewest “missed yards per attempt,” or how close they came to being successful on the plays that weren’t quite good enough to quality as successful.The various analytics websites have slight differences in the way they rate players, but they all tend to support the same traits in a running back, namely consistently helping the team pick up first downs. Both Gillislee and Burkhead were excellent at picking up first downs last season, gaining first downs more than 30 percent of the time. Meanwhile, for all the focus on LeGarrette Blount and his 18 touchdowns last year, Blount picked up first downs on just 22.4 percent of his carries. The analytics models say Blount was actually a mediocre running back last year, and that may explain why the Patriots are willing to let Blount walk and turn their attention to Gillislee and Burkhead."http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...llislee-signings-patriots-buy-into-analytics/

 
Nice analytics but do these stats hold up over time, as the player gets more reps?  When the top 2 players ate backups, Rex being third string, we need to question the value. 

 
FF Nerd said:
This should shed some light...

"Today the Patriots signed restricted free agent running back Mike Gillislee to an offer sheet that they hope the Bills won’t match, and previously the Patriots signed running back Rex Burkhead away from the Bengals. What do Gillislee and Burkhead have in common? The average fan may not know a lot about them, but the analytics people love them.Analytics website FootballOutsiders.com ranked Gillislee as the most efficient running back in the NFL last year, and Burkhead as No. 2. Analytics website NumberFire also had Gillislee first and Burkhead second. Analyst Warren Sharp’s metrics had Gillislee first and Burkhead second in success rate, and Burkhead first and Gillislee second in the fewest “missed yards per attempt,” or how close they came to being successful on the plays that weren’t quite good enough to quality as successful.The various analytics websites have slight differences in the way they rate players, but they all tend to support the same traits in a running back, namely consistently helping the team pick up first downs. Both Gillislee and Burkhead were excellent at picking up first downs last season, gaining first downs more than 30 percent of the time. Meanwhile, for all the focus on LeGarrette Blount and his 18 touchdowns last year, Blount picked up first downs on just 22.4 percent of his carries. The analytics models say Blount was actually a mediocre running back last year, and that may explain why the Patriots are willing to let Blount walk and turn their attention to Gillislee and Burkhead."http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...llislee-signings-patriots-buy-into-analytics/
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Well, I'll start off by saying that I do think Burkhead and Gillislee are both talented backs and could both succeed in bigger roles - I wasn't necessarily saying they were bad signings, just odd.

However, I'm not sure how meaningful these analytic stats are since we are talking about extremely small samples sizes.

And the "picking up first down" % seems like a really odd stat. If Burkhead had 10 carries and 3 of them gained first downs (30%) and Blount had 200 carries and 44 of them went for first downs (22%), which is the better season?

Also "picking up first down" seems kind of arbitrary - so if Blount ran for 9 yards on first down and the backup came in and gained a yard to get the first down on the next carry, which run was really the more valuable one?

 
FF Nerd said:
 Both Gillislee and Burkhead were excellent at picking up first downs last season, gaining first downs more than 30 percent of the time. Meanwhile, for all the focus on LeGarrette Blount and his 18 touchdowns last year, Blount picked up first downs on just 22.4 percent of his carries. The analytics models say Blount was actually a mediocre running back http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...llislee-signings-patriots-buy-into-analytics/
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and this is a really weird statement - so gaining a first down is valuable, but scoring 18 TDs is not?

A one yard run on 3 and 1 that earns a first down = "good" but a one yard run on second and goal for a TD = "mediocre"?

 
I’m not very familiar with Gilleslee. Is he a “big” back? Is he the type  of player who would take Blount’s role?

 
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