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*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (5 Viewers)

As long as we agree the best case is he can be a top 5 WR for a decade.
I don't agree with that. Would a healthy Miles Austin be in your dynasty top 5 today?
If he continued to produce near his breakout season level I think he'd have to be. Problem is they drafted Dez the next year and he became nonelite. This precedes the "always being hurt" phase. If he was 1300 total yards money in the bank then yeah at 29 what can you do. He would be Roddy White at 29.

Did Gordon develop as a technical route runner? Or was he just fed the ball and dominated physically? Let's not pretend he has to turn into Jerry Rice. Really I think the threshold is low for Patterson. He can't look lost, but he won't be expected to run lots of routes.
Gordon is well ahead of Patterson, in terms of technique, and has been every step of the way. It's not just that Patterson isn't Jerry Rice--it's that he's not an NFL caliber WR, technically. Even his 9 routes looked awkward. That's bad.
I agree he can't look lost, but still contend the threshold is pretty low. "Norv puts in 10 plays for Cordarrelle." Step 1: learn those ten plays.

 
I agree he can't look lost, but still contend the threshold is pretty low. "Norv puts in 10 plays for Cordarrelle." Step 1: learn those ten plays.
I just can't think of many WRs as raw as Patterson who are, or were, consistently productive for their fantasy owners. The fact that I think 70/1000/5-7 is reasonable says a lot about how special I think he is as an athlete, considering how far behind I think he is as a WR, technically.

Not to beat a dead horse, but I simply think those chasing the next Gordon are wrong to look at Patterson. In my opinion, he's much more likely to be an up-and-down WR2/3 than to ever be a consistent WR1.

 
I agree he can't look lost, but still contend the threshold is pretty low. "Norv puts in 10 plays for Cordarrelle." Step 1: learn those ten plays.
I just can't think of many WRs as raw as Patterson who are, or were, consistently productive for their fantasy owners. The fact that I think 70/1000/5-7 is reasonable says a lot about how special I think he is as an athlete, considering how far behind I think he is as a WR, technically.

Not to beat a dead horse, but I simply think those chasing the next Gordon are wrong to look at Patterson. In my opinion, he's much more likely to be an up-and-down WR2/3 than to ever be a consistent WR1.
Did someone say they were chasing "the next Gordon"?

 
Kleck said:
Same here. The 2015 2nd is a nice bonus too.
In two years max (likely this year) you aren't going to even be able to get Patterson for that. Let alone Vereen on top.
I wish I knew the future like this. Dynasty must be so much easier for those with the ability to predict the future with certainty

 
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Kleck said:
Same here. The 2015 2nd is a nice bonus too.
In two years max (likely this year) you aren't going to even be able to get Patterson for that. Let alone Vereen on top.
I wish I knew the future like this. Dynasty must be so much easier for those with the ability to predict the future with certainty
I think we can assume an implied "in my opinion" with all of the comments in this thread. Afterall aren't we all "predicting the future", when we choose a side we like in a dynasty trade thread.

 
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Not to beat a dead horse, but I simply think those chasing the next Gordon are wrong to look at Patterson. In my opinion, he's much more likely to be an up-and-down WR2/3 than to ever be a consistent WR1.
I agree with you that people are paying for the upside at his current ADP, but would disagree if you were saying 1) he could lose a lot of value this year, 2) he doesn't have a reasonable shot at high upside of consistent WR1, or 3) he's too raw to put up fantasy points. If you're saying "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick just beware you might end up with Torrey Smith," that's totally reasonable. You could also say "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick on Keenan Allen just beware you might end up with Miles Austin" and "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick on The Gronk just beware you might end up with Larry Johnson." Rd2 is filled with guys who have reasonable shots at oh brother outcomes this year. I won't spend a Rd2 startup pick on him this year but I'll continue to be excited about his prospects.

 
In two years max (likely this year) you aren't going to even be able to get Patterson for that. Let alone Vereen on top.
I wish I knew the future like this. Dynasty must be so much easier for those with the ability to predict the future with certainty
I think we can assume an implied "in my opinion" with all of the comments in this thread. Afterall aren't we all "predicting the future", when we choose a side we like in a dynasty trade thread.
:goodposting:

 
I will have to take Team B to win the trade , even though DeSean Jackson just asked his QB to change his jersey number. Patterson is all about potential. Let's not get too excited until his team got a real Quarterback.


I prefer Team B's side but let's not act like this is a slam dunk. Vereen could easily be replaced and Patterson may never reach the potential people expect.

 
I agree with you that people are paying for the upside at his current ADP, but would disagree if you were saying 1) he could lose a lot of value this year, 2) he doesn't have a reasonable shot at high upside of consistent WR1, or 3) he's too raw to put up fantasy points. If you're saying "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick just beware you might end up with Torrey Smith," that's totally reasonable. You could also say "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick on Keenan Allen just beware you might end up with Miles Austin" and "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick on The Gronk just beware you might end up with Larry Johnson." Rd2 is filled with guys who have reasonable shots at oh brother outcomes this year. I won't spend a Rd2 startup pick on him this year but I'll continue to be excited about his prospects.
1 - I think we do disagree here.

2 - I think we disagree on how likely it is.

3 - I think he's too raw to put up consistent mid-level WR2 numbers.

Just my opinion and, as an owner, I do hope I'm wrong.

 
I agree with you that people are paying for the upside at his current ADP, but would disagree if you were saying 1) he could lose a lot of value this year, 2) he doesn't have a reasonable shot at high upside of consistent WR1, or 3) he's too raw to put up fantasy points. If you're saying "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick just beware you might end up with Torrey Smith," that's totally reasonable. You could also say "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick on Keenan Allen just beware you might end up with Miles Austin" and "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick on The Gronk just beware you might end up with Larry Johnson." Rd2 is filled with guys who have reasonable shots at oh brother outcomes this year. I won't spend a Rd2 startup pick on him this year but I'll continue to be excited about his prospects.
1 - I think we do disagree here.

2 - I think we disagree on how likely it is.

3 - I think he's too raw to put up consistent mid-level WR2 numbers.

Just my opinion and, as an owner, I do hope I'm wrong.
I don't mean this as an insult or antagonistically at all, but if that's the case, why do you still own him?

His trade value is pretty high right now. I've see him traded for the 1.01 straight up (of course if you are also not high on Watkins that doesn't mean much). I don't own him anywhere, and while I do like his talent, I'd likely move him right now if I did based on what his perceived value is.

 
I agree with you that people are paying for the upside at his current ADP, but would disagree if you were saying 1) he could lose a lot of value this year, 2) he doesn't have a reasonable shot at high upside of consistent WR1, or 3) he's too raw to put up fantasy points. If you're saying "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick just beware you might end up with Torrey Smith," that's totally reasonable. You could also say "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick on Keenan Allen just beware you might end up with Miles Austin" and "sure gamble your rd2 startup pick on The Gronk just beware you might end up with Larry Johnson." Rd2 is filled with guys who have reasonable shots at oh brother outcomes this year. I won't spend a Rd2 startup pick on him this year but I'll continue to be excited about his prospects.
1 - I think we do disagree here.

2 - I think we disagree on how likely it is.

3 - I think he's too raw to put up consistent mid-level WR2 numbers.

Just my opinion and, as an owner, I do hope I'm wrong.
I don't mean this as an insult or antagonistically at all, but if that's the case, why do you still own him?

His trade value is pretty high right now. I've see him traded for the 1.01 straight up (of course if you are also not high on Watkins that doesn't mean much). I don't own him anywhere, and while I do like his talent, I'd likely move him right now if I did based on what his perceived value is.
Depends on if one of the kool aid drinkers is in that particular league, I'd imagine.

 
Kleck said:
Same here. The 2015 2nd is a nice bonus too.
In two years max (likely this year) you aren't going to even be able to get Patterson for that. Let alone Vereen on top.
I wish I knew the future like this. Dynasty must be so much easier for those with the ability to predict the future with certainty
I think we can assume an implied "in my opinion" with all of the comments in this thread. Afterall aren't we all "predicting the future", when we choose a side we like in a dynasty trade thread.
I suppose. So for my part I am not a fan of Bell and pretty much hate DJax but I would take that side...and I drafted and own Patterson in 3 of 8 leagues.

This value you are projecting onto Patterson Lowend WR1/high WR2 sounds like exactly what DJax just did last year and on top of that Bell looks to be more than a 2 down pounder even though I don't like him as much as other owners.

Anyway seems like the best case scenario has to work out for you to even break even in this deal and that isn't considering the pick at all. I just don't see Vereen ever being close to equal to Bell so a move like this to get younger at WR and older at a PPR RB in a notoriously unpredictable backfield

I really hope Patterson learns about being a WR from Jennings so I am holding him in almost any case but if someone offered me this I would just be accepting it...and I really like Patterson

Value now is still value I don't have to wait for.

 
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I don't mean this as an insult or antagonistically at all, but if that's the case, why do you still own him?

His trade value is pretty high right now. I've see him traded for the 1.01 straight up (of course if you are also not high on Watkins that doesn't mean much). I don't own him anywhere, and while I do like his talent, I'd likely move him right now if I did based on what his perceived value is.
I am actively seling him. I've sold him in 2 leagues (Spiller+ in one, Patterson+ for Marshall in another). I have tried moving him for top 2 picks in every league in which I own him, and have been turned down each time.

 
I guess a question is if ADP top 20 is too high, what is the realistic value where selling becomes a harder choice?

ADP top 30: Floyd, Nelson, Harvin

ADP top 40: Hopkins, Crabtree, Cruz

ADP top 50: Wright, Blackmon, Torrey

ADP top 60 - Randle, Jackson

I would hesitate to sell at top 40 valuation.(Not using a "you could get more argument", just based on projected value vs. the field.)

 
I guess a question is if ADP top 20 is too high, what is the realistic value where selling becomes a harder choice?

ADP top 30: Floyd, Nelson, Harvin

ADP top 40: Hopkins, Crabtree, Cruz

ADP top 50: Wright, Blackmon, Torrey

ADP top 60 - Randle, Jackson

I would hesitate to sell at top 40 valuation.(Not using a "you could get more argument", just based on projected value vs. the field.)
That's roughly where I'd fall, too. There might be a guy or two floating around in the 40ish range that I prefer, but that's definitely where it starts getting pretty dicey.

 
12 teams, PPR. Two trades between the same teams today:

Team A gave up:
Foster, Arian HOU RB
Stills, Kenny NOS WR

Team B gave up:
Gerhart, Toby JAC RB
Fleener, Coby IND TE

Team A gave up:
Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.09

Team B gave up:
Todman, Jordan JAC RB
Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.03

 
12 teams, PPR. Two trades between the same teams today:

Team A gave up:
Foster, Arian HOU RB
Stills, Kenny NOS WR

Team B gave up:
Gerhart, Toby JAC RB
Fleener, Coby IND TE

Team A gave up:
Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.09

Team B gave up:
Todman, Jordan JAC RB
Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.03
How's the weather in JAX this time of year? Not too muggy I hope.

 
I guess a question is if ADP top 20 is too high, what is the realistic value where selling becomes a harder choice?

ADP top 30: Floyd, Nelson, Harvin

ADP top 40: Hopkins, Crabtree, Cruz

ADP top 50: Wright, Blackmon, Torrey

ADP top 60 - Randle, Jackson

I would hesitate to sell at top 40 valuation.(Not using a "you could get more argument", just based on projected value vs. the field.)
30 is reasonably optimistic. 40 is where I likely land. 50 is reasonably conservative. 60 is unreasonably conservative.

Based only on my opinion of him, of course.

 
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12 teams, PPR. Two trades between the same teams today:

Team A gave up:
Foster, Arian HOU RB
Stills, Kenny NOS WR

Team B gave up:
Gerhart, Toby JAC RB
Fleener, Coby IND TE

Team A gave up:
Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.09

Team B gave up:
Todman, Jordan JAC RB
Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.03
How's the weather in JAX this time of year? Not too muggy I hope.
:confused:
I think he's saying the owner who got Gerhart and Todman got mugged.

 
Lots of Gerhart trades lately. If you get a year or two of LeVeon Bell/Eddie Lacy numbers from him, he'll be worth that late 1st price tag.

I wouldn't give up anything for Todman though. I've had some people try to pawn him off on me. No thanks.

I still think Jacksonville may draft another RB, though I'd guess that it will be a day 3 guy. That would make Todman pretty worthless, if he isn't already.

 
I guess a question is if ADP top 20 is too high, what is the realistic value where selling becomes a harder choice?

ADP top 30: Floyd, Nelson, Harvin

ADP top 40: Hopkins, Crabtree, Cruz

ADP top 50: Wright, Blackmon, Torrey

ADP top 60 - Randle, Jackson

I would hesitate to sell at top 40 valuation.(Not using a "you could get more argument", just based on projected value vs. the field.)
30 is reasonably optimistic. 40 is where I likely land. 50 is reasonably conservative. 60 is unreasonably conservative.
Probably where I am at.

I can see him being inside top 20 if you have a return yards league as it will hedge the "learning to be a WR" curve. That will add enough value to keep him relevant while he is learning his craft at the NFL level.

 
12 teams, PPR. Two trades between the same teams today:

Team A gave up:
Foster, Arian HOU RB
Stills, Kenny NOS WR

Team B gave up:
Gerhart, Toby JAC RB
Fleener, Coby IND TE

Team A gave up:
Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.09

Team B gave up:
Todman, Jordan JAC RB
Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.03
How's the weather in JAX this time of year? Not too muggy I hope.
:confused:
I think he's saying the owner who got Gerhart and Todman got mugged.
Ah, yes, makes sense now. :whoosh:

 
$135 Salary cap league, 12 team, QB1, Rb2, wr3, TE1 and 1 flex. 0.5 PPR

Team A gets: Tom Brady $18 and 1.01 rookie pick

Team B gets: Colin Kaepernick $4 and 1.11 rookie pick

 
$135 Salary cap league, 12 team, QB1, Rb2, wr3, TE1 and 1 flex. 0.5 PPR

Team A gets: Tom Brady $18 and 1.01 rookie pick

Team B gets: Colin Kaepernick $4 and 1.11 rookie pick
That's really awful for the side losing 1.01. Unless there is a huge cap # attached to the pick, in which case it's merely bad.

 
$135 Salary cap league, 12 team, QB1, Rb2, wr3, TE1 and 1 flex. 0.5 PPR

Team A gets: Tom Brady $18 and 1.01 rookie pick

Team B gets: Colin Kaepernick $4 and 1.11 rookie pick
That's really awful for the side losing 1.01. Unless there is a huge cap # attached to the pick, in which case it's merely bad.
I'm not sure how bad his cap situation was but this one is going to leave a mark.

Ouch for Team A team losing the 1.01.

 
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gchip said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Gandalf said:
$135 Salary cap league, 12 team, QB1, Rb2, wr3, TE1 and 1 flex. 0.5 PPR

Team A gets: Tom Brady $18 and 1.01 rookie pick

Team B gets: Colin Kaepernick $4 and 1.11 rookie pick
That's really awful for the side losing 1.01. Unless there is a huge cap # attached to the pick, in which case it's merely bad.
I'm not sure how bad his cap situation was but this one is going to leave a mark.

Ouch for Team A.
Yeah even though Kaep is a steal at $4 and Brady rather pricey in comparison the 1.01 to 1.11 drop seems like a massive price to pay

 
gchip said:
Coeur de Lion said:
Gandalf said:
$135 Salary cap league, 12 team, QB1, Rb2, wr3, TE1 and 1 flex. 0.5 PPR

Team A gets: Tom Brady $18 and 1.01 rookie pick

Team B gets: Colin Kaepernick $4 and 1.11 rookie pick
That's really awful for the side losing 1.01. Unless there is a huge cap # attached to the pick, in which case it's merely bad.
I'm not sure how bad his cap situation was but this one is going to leave a mark.Ouch for Team A.
Team A or B? I thought side A got the better of this one.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Bruce Hammond said:
Just Win Baby said:
thriftyrocker said:
Just Win Baby said:
12 teams, PPR. Two trades between the same teams today:

Team A gave up:

Foster, Arian HOU RB

Stills, Kenny NOS WR

Team B gave up:

Gerhart, Toby JAC RB

Fleener, Coby IND TE

Team A gave up:

Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.09

Team B gave up:

Todman, Jordan JAC RB

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.03
How's the weather in JAX this time of year? Not too muggy I hope.
:confused:
I think he's saying the owner who got Gerhart and Todman got mugged.
Ah, yes, makes sense now. :whoosh:
Maybe it would have made more sense if he said "wow, he really took team A to the Fleeners!"?
 
12 team ppr, best ball scoring

Team A gives: L.Miller, 2.12, $5 blind bidding bucks

Team B gives: 2.05

Team C gives: L.Murray, 3.07

Team D gives: 2.03

 
12 team ppr, best ball scoring

Team C gives: L.Murray, 3.07

Team D gives: 2.03
I don't play in a best ball format, but in the two PPR leagues that I own Latavius Murray, I would be absolutely thrilled if I could get the 2.03 for him and only have to throw in the 3.07.

 
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Coeur de Lion said:
Gandalf said:
$135 Salary cap league, 12 team, QB1, Rb2, wr3, TE1 and 1 flex. 0.5 PPR

Team A gets: Tom Brady $18 and 1.01 rookie pick

Team B gets: Colin Kaepernick $4 and 1.11 rookie pick
That's really awful for the side losing 1.01. Unless there is a huge cap # attached to the pick, in which case it's merely bad.
If he can keep Kap indefinetly at $4, I'd take it. Save $14 which might be huge depending on the league's dynamics. It's very close at least.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Bruce Hammond said:
Just Win Baby said:
thriftyrocker said:
Just Win Baby said:
12 teams, PPR. Two trades between the same teams today:

Team A gave up:

Foster, Arian HOU RB

Stills, Kenny NOS WR

Team B gave up:

Gerhart, Toby JAC RB

Fleener, Coby IND TE

Team A gave up:

Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.09

Team B gave up:

Todman, Jordan JAC RB

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.03
How's the weather in JAX this time of year? Not too muggy I hope.
:confused:
I think he's saying the owner who got Gerhart and Todman got mugged.
Ah, yes, makes sense now. :whoosh:
Maybe it would have made more sense if he said "wow, he really took team A to the Fleeners!"?
Just curious, any other opinions on this deal or is 'ripoff' the general feeling (besides EBF whose Gerhart opinion is well documented)?

 
Just Win Baby said:
Bruce Hammond said:
Just Win Baby said:
thriftyrocker said:
Just Win Baby said:
12 teams, PPR. Two trades between the same teams today:

Team A gave up:

Foster, Arian HOU RB

Stills, Kenny NOS WR

Team B gave up:

Gerhart, Toby JAC RB

Fleener, Coby IND TE

Team A gave up:

Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.09

Team B gave up:

Todman, Jordan JAC RB

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.03
How's the weather in JAX this time of year? Not too muggy I hope.
:confused:
I think he's saying the owner who got Gerhart and Todman got mugged.
Ah, yes, makes sense now. :whoosh:
Maybe it would have made more sense if he said "wow, he really took team A to the Fleeners!"?
Just curious, any other opinions on this deal or is 'ripoff' the general feeling (besides EBF whose Gerhart opinion is well documented)?
I wouldn't say ripoff, I would call it an overpay since I don't know who offered it to whom. I just feel the team acquiring Gerhart and Todman is being short sighted to think they now have a complete backfield. I am assuming they think that based on what they paid. I would have at least waited until after the draft to see what JAX does. There is no way the price could have gotten any higher by waiting.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Bruce Hammond said:
Just Win Baby said:
thriftyrocker said:
Just Win Baby said:
12 teams, PPR. Two trades between the same teams today:

Team A gave up:

Foster, Arian HOU RB

Stills, Kenny NOS WR

Team B gave up:

Gerhart, Toby JAC RB

Fleener, Coby IND TE

Team A gave up:

Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.09

Team B gave up:

Todman, Jordan JAC RB

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.03
How's the weather in JAX this time of year? Not too muggy I hope.
:confused:
I think he's saying the owner who got Gerhart and Todman got mugged.
Ah, yes, makes sense now. :whoosh:
Maybe it would have made more sense if he said "wow, he really took team A to the Fleeners!"?
Just curious, any other opinions on this deal or is 'ripoff' the general feeling (besides EBF whose Gerhart opinion is well documented)?
IMO Foster is a much better short window option at RB. I also prefer Stills to Fleener at this point, and wouldn't give up anything at all for Todman, whether I had Gerhardt or not. So IMO Team A got worked hard.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Bruce Hammond said:
Just Win Baby said:
thriftyrocker said:
Just Win Baby said:
12 teams, PPR. Two trades between the same teams today:

Team A gave up:

Foster, Arian HOU RB

Stills, Kenny NOS WR

Team B gave up:

Gerhart, Toby JAC RB

Fleener, Coby IND TE

Team A gave up:

Year 2014 Draft Pick 1.09

Team B gave up:

Todman, Jordan JAC RB

Year 2014 Draft Pick 2.03
How's the weather in JAX this time of year? Not too muggy I hope.
:confused:
I think he's saying the owner who got Gerhart and Todman got mugged.
Ah, yes, makes sense now. :whoosh:
Maybe it would have made more sense if he said "wow, he really took team A to the Fleeners!"?
Just curious, any other opinions on this deal or is 'ripoff' the general feeling (besides EBF whose Gerhart opinion is well documented)?
I wouldn't say ripoff, I would call it an overpay since I don't know who offered it to whom. I just feel the team acquiring Gerhart and Todman is being short sighted to think they now have a complete backfield. I am assuming they think that based on what they paid. I would have at least waited until after the draft to see what JAX does. There is no way the price could have gotten any higher by waiting.
I will call it a ripoff.

Think I would rather have Stills than Gerhart and Fleener is borderline waiver material for me after seeing what he can do as the only TE in IND last year.

Foster may have lost value but not nearly that much

 

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