squistion said:
Not as cut and dried as some of the previous posters seem to think...In PPR I actually would take Shorts, although if I was really roster deficient at RB, then I might go with the underwhelming Ridley.
Based on FBGs consensus rankings, it's RB26 vs. WR51. DLF has it as RB28 vs. WR45. FantasyPros has it as RB20 vs. WR44. Rotoviz consensus has it as RB29 vs. WR45. The June Mocks had Ridley at RB31 (108 overall) and Shorts at WR52 (113 overall). And I'm pretty sure all of these rankings assume PPR, and most of them assume WR-friendly lineups (1/2/3/1 + flex). Any deviations in scoring only serve to skew the comparison more to Ridley.
Not saying that just because consensus rankings prefer one side that that side is obviously the right one. I can see why someone might prefer Shorts, especially in a PPR league with 1/2/3/1/flex lineups. I'm just saying, for me, I think the consensus nailed this one- I think Ridley's the choice, regardless of league settings.
That is fine, I am tempted to quote the estimable EBF on the value (or lack thereof) of consensus rankings, but IMO Ridley is way overrated and I tend to agree with the Rotoworld blurb quoting ESPN Patriots reporter Mike Reiss who "expects Shane Vereen to handle a majority of New England's running back snaps this season".
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6445/shane-vereen And that is just my opinion.
Yeah, obviously I'm not going to go defending consensus thought to the death or anything. I've got plenty of places where I'm pretty happy to disagree with pretty much every other ranker out there. Just in this case, I think the consensus has it right and that most people underrate just how good of a runner Ridley really is.
Looking at it from another perspective... Ridley got 13 carries per game last year even as the bottom fell out on him. He had 18 carries per game the year before. New England is regularly among the league leaders in total rushing attempts. Blount is gone. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Ridley inch that back up to about 15 carries per game... and if he does, then he'll probably translate that into about 66 rushing yards (4.4 ypc), with maybe 60 receiving yards and 8-10 TDs on the year. Those are just his like-clockwork career averages. That would translate into about 1100/8 or 1100/10 over a full season, and then afterwards he'll be a talented 26-year-old RB with a strong track record looking for a new Ben Tate or Toby Gerhart-type situation. I'm not saying he's the key to fantasy championships or anything, but that's a pretty nice piece to own in dynasty right now, especially as crappy as the current RB group is.