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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)

SIZE ALL ALIVE SURV% AVG W218 4633 3768 81.3% 161.7819 1813 1473 81.2% 162.2420 1377 1158 84.1% 162.0421 1146 950 82.9% 163.5722 966 806 83.4% 163.0023 814 681 83.7% 163.6224 627 529 84.4% 163.3925 484 407 84.1% 164.9526 384 328 85.4% 165.5827 312 271 86.9% 165.5528 230 196 85.2% 164.3829 193 169 87.6% 167.1430 339 291 85.8% 165.32TOT 13318 11027 82.8% 162.83
Where do you find this? I hope you are right about it being good to barely make the cut. Out of 21 RB/WR/TE (30-man total) I managed only 3 TDs and one was Andre Roberts :bag: So I'm part of the reason 30-man rosters didn't hold up as well as 29. 147.60 :scared:
I built my own database of all the entries in the contest. Each week I'll usually post some summary stats like this, as well as anything else I find interesting or relevant to the discussion at that time. FBG provides this querier where you can look up some very general information on your own, as well. I don't actually know if it's good to barely make the cut. I actually suspect it's probably not good, in terms of predicting your success in later weeks. But, in theory, if you value uniqueness, then being close to the cut would seem to be more likely to weed out teams similar to your own. If you score 200+, then everyone with the same players as you probably also had a great week.
Not that you are characterizing anyone's position as such, but did want to clarify my own position - I don't think just making the cut is better than scoring high in the early weeks. The revealed information of knowing you picked good players is going to be more predictive of success than an increase in uniqueness. I just think that the coefficient on uniqueness is positive once we hit the top 250 everything else constant. However everything else is not held constant as we have a self-selection process in which the least unique players are most likely to be the best value plays during the year.

The reason uniqueness is theoretically valuable in the final 250 is not that it is correlated with point scoring, but for any given level of point production the expected value of your payout is higher due to potentially fewer splits.

 
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Meh, muddling along. Someone tell me I don't stand a chance so I can pay less attention. :D

Schaub Luck Skelton Tebow

McGahee Kevin Smith M. Bush Ra. Jennings Mendy Benson Royster Taiwan

Calvin Dez Antonio Brown Decker Crabtree Steve E. Smith Hankerson

Daniels Olsen Kendricks

Vinatieri Barth Tynes

Seahawks Falcons Panthers

155.9 169.7

Anything to see here?

 
Meh, muddling along. Someone tell me I don't stand a chance so I can pay less attention. :DSchaub Luck Skelton TebowMcGahee Kevin Smith M. Bush Ra. Jennings Mendy Benson Royster TaiwanCalvin Dez Antonio Brown Decker Crabtree Steve E. Smith HankersonDaniels Olsen KendricksVinatieri Barth TynesSeahawks Falcons Panthers155.9 169.7Anything to see here?
Good rosterTop 1000-2000....not enough top end scoring to win it all...jmo
 
Meh, muddling along. Someone tell me I don't stand a chance so I can pay less attention. :DSchaub Luck Skelton TebowMcGahee Kevin Smith M. Bush Ra. Jennings Mendy Benson Royster TaiwanCalvin Dez Antonio Brown Decker Crabtree Steve E. Smith HankersonDaniels Olsen KendricksVinatieri Barth TynesSeahawks Falcons Panthers155.9 169.7Anything to see here?
Good rosterTop 1000-2000....not enough top end scoring to win it all...jmo
Too much $ spent at QB for too little production.
 
Good feedback. I went stud QB last season, did okay, but one bad week killed me. That's why I threw the wildcard Tebow in there.

 
Meh, muddling along. Someone tell me I don't stand a chance so I can pay less attention. :DSchaub Luck Skelton TebowMcGahee Kevin Smith M. Bush Ra. Jennings Mendy Benson Royster TaiwanCalvin Dez Antonio Brown Decker Crabtree Steve E. Smith HankersonDaniels Olsen KendricksVinatieri Barth TynesSeahawks Falcons Panthers155.9 169.7Anything to see here?
I don't think you spent too much at QB, but it's not allocated optimally (IMO). If you're going to spend $37 at QB I'd rather have a stud and 1-2 cheap bye week fillers. I think 4 QBs is overkill when you can only start one per week, and I believe quality trumps quantity at this position.You have 9 RBs but only spent a total of $61, and it shows that you're potentially thin on higher-end talent. Are you really comfortable with Kevin Smith as your (dollar-wise) RB2? That said, there was a lot of apparent value in guys like Benson, Mendy, Royster, etc. this year so this may have been the season to spend less at RB - I know I personally spent less than I usually do. I think I'd like it better if you had just a little more top-end talent. It is best-ball but I feel like you're going to run into at least one or two weeks where this entire group puts up a dud. The emergence of Michael Bush and the return of Mendenhall could quickly turn this into a solid squad, though.Nothing to complain about with the WR corps really. I think you spent the right amount of money and you've got some good talent there. Personally, I would've spent the same amout but spread it out over 8-9 WRs instead of just 7, but that's a difference of philosophy. I don't think anyone would look at your roster and say WR is a weakness.TE is another position where philosophical differences come into play. Lots of people feel that you need a bona fide stud to take advantage of the 1.5 PPR. I think Daniels and Olsen presented value this year, though, so no problem there. I got burned by the Kendricks hype train last year so I didn't want any part of him this year for $9. I'm a believer in going with just 2 at K and D but once again, that's an opinion many disagree with. Otherwise not much to say about that.If I was allowed to go back and make a couple of tweaks to this roster, I'd re-allocate the dollars at QB, get rid of Kendricks and the extra K and D and use that extra $15 to upgrade at RB or something.There are no glaring weaknesses on this roster. I think you'll face a small challenge in week 5 when your WR1, WR2, and RB2 are all on bye, but you have enough depth to see you through. I think if you get cut, it'll be more likely because your pool of QBs doesn't put up enough points to keep up with all the highly-owned studs. That, or it's relatively easy to envision a scenario where you just get a collective dud from your RB corps. Say week 7, McGahee is on bye, Kevin Smith has lost his starting gig to Leshoure, Michael Bush has been relegated behind Forte, Jennings is a nonfactor, Mendy has recently returned but is in a timeshare with Redman and Dwyer, Benson's still good value in GB, but Royster, Taiwan, and Ronnie Brown get a total of 0 carries. Something like that could take you down before the final 250. But that's the beauty of this contest - you never know. Maybe MJD gets hurt and Jennings becomes a top-10 RB, and late in the year guys like Hankerson and Kendricks become studs at their positions and carry you to the $25,000. For now, it's just "survive and advance" and anything can happen down the stretch.
 
Bass/Iggy... if you're game for another roster analysis I'd love your take. Have made it to W10 once or twice in the last five years, but never further.

Aaron Rodgers $31

Blaine Gabbert $6

Darren McFadden $26

Jamaal Charles $24

Marshawn Lynch $19

Alex Green $6

Rashard Mendenhall $4

Jonathan Dwyer $4

Cedric Benson $3

Vincent Jackson $19

Torrey Smith $16

Mike Wallace $16

Pierre Garcon $14

Justin Blackmon $7

Jerome Simpson $7

Jon Baldwin $4

Antonio Gates $20

Martellus Bennett $4

Dwayne Allen $2

Rian Lindell $3

Justin Medlock $3

Connor Barth $3

Carolina Panthers $3

Miami Dolphins $3

Washington Redskins $3

 
Bass/Iggy... if you're game for another roster analysis I'd love your take. Have made it to W10 once or twice in the last five years, but never further.
I'll do another one, but I'm not making a habit out of this. ;) Also I don't want anyone to think I really know what I'm talking about, I've made it to the finals once or twice, made it to week 13 last year IIRC, but I've also gotten booted in weeks 4 and 5 some years too, so I don't really know better than anyone else here what it takes to win.Anyway, I like your team a lot. It's roughly similar to my own entry, if not in player selection, at least in philosophy.Like the previous poster, you also spent $37 at QB but I like your setup better than the 4 QB one. Rodgers is a stud QB who should consistently put up starter-worthy points, while Gabbert is insurance for the bye week and in the unlikely event that Rodgers puts up a total stinker. And in case anyone's inclined to ask, "What if Rodgers gets hurt?" or something like that, I don't think that's something you should be concerned with in a contest like this. Injuries are impossible to predict, and if one of your high-priced players gets hurt, no amount of planning will be that much help. If you have more backups, or higher priced backups, you're just pulling money away from other positions where it's much more likely to contribute to your overall score. At RB my only minor concern would be that you doubled up on PIT and GB RBs - on any given week, for example, it's likely that one or the other of Benson and Green will have some value, but probably not both. So even though you own 7 RBs, each week you may only be really going in with 5: your top three, and "Green Bay RB" and "Pittsburgh RB." But they're all so cheap it's not that big of a deal - I think I said earlier in the thread something to the effect that for a total of $17, you have (hopefully) locked up "Starting RB" for Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Not too shabby. Where else in the contest could you get the starting RBs for two good teams for that price? McFadden, Charles, and Lynch should hopefully combine to produce stud-like RB stats most weeks.Like the previous poster, I don't think anyone's going to look at your WR corps and declare it a weakness. I personally prefer more than 7 here, and I probably would've found a way to add one more (maybe by ditching the third K and D) but in reality, 7 is plenty to keep you alive and perform in the finals if you get there.Gates is assumed to be a stud TE again, and I was high on Bennett this year at TE, I think the Giants will find a way to make him productive (see how Eli kept feeding him in the red zone last week?). I honestly don't really know anything about Allen but for $2 you can't really go wrong - you already flexed him once, and while it didn't make a difference this week, you could say you already got your money's worth. Later in the year when your other guys are on bye he may actually keep you afloat with a random TD or a bunch of catches at 1.5 PPR.K and D I've already touched on, I don't like taking 3 of each but I think I'm in the minority there. And I think your roster is pretty solid as-is, there's nothing that jumps out immediately where I'd say you could've used that $6 to improve. I probably would've added another WR or something but that's a minor quibble.Overall, I like this team a lot, it's very similar to the kind of entry I like to submit. But like I said, I've never won the $25k or anything, so what do I know? :)
 
Bass/Iggy... if you're game for another roster analysis I'd love your take. Have made it to W10 once or twice in the last five years, but never further.
I'll do another one, but I'm not making a habit out of this. ;) Also I don't want anyone to think I really know what I'm talking about, I've made it to the finals once or twice, made it to week 13 last year IIRC, but I've also gotten booted in weeks 4 and 5 some years too, so I don't really know better than anyone else here what it takes to win.Anyway, I like your team a lot. It's roughly similar to my own entry, if not in player selection, at least in philosophy.

Like the previous poster, you also spent $37 at QB but I like your setup better than the 4 QB one. Rodgers is a stud QB who should consistently put up starter-worthy points, while Gabbert is insurance for the bye week and in the unlikely event that Rodgers puts up a total stinker. And in case anyone's inclined to ask, "What if Rodgers gets hurt?" or something like that, I don't think that's something you should be concerned with in a contest like this. Injuries are impossible to predict, and if one of your high-priced players gets hurt, no amount of planning will be that much help. If you have more backups, or higher priced backups, you're just pulling money away from other positions where it's much more likely to contribute to your overall score.

At RB my only minor concern would be that you doubled up on PIT and GB RBs - on any given week, for example, it's likely that one or the other of Benson and Green will have some value, but probably not both. So even though you own 7 RBs, each week you may only be really going in with 5: your top three, and "Green Bay RB" and "Pittsburgh RB." But they're all so cheap it's not that big of a deal - I think I said earlier in the thread something to the effect that for a total of $17, you have (hopefully) locked up "Starting RB" for Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Not too shabby. Where else in the contest could you get the starting RBs for two good teams for that price? McFadden, Charles, and Lynch should hopefully combine to produce stud-like RB stats most weeks.

Like the previous poster, I don't think anyone's going to look at your WR corps and declare it a weakness. I personally prefer more than 7 here, and I probably would've found a way to add one more (maybe by ditching the third K and D) but in reality, 7 is plenty to keep you alive and perform in the finals if you get there.

Gates is assumed to be a stud TE again, and I was high on Bennett this year at TE, I think the Giants will find a way to make him productive (see how Eli kept feeding him in the red zone last week?). I honestly don't really know anything about Allen but for $2 you can't really go wrong - you already flexed him once, and while it didn't make a difference this week, you could say you already got your money's worth. Later in the year when your other guys are on bye he may actually keep you afloat with a random TD or a bunch of catches at 1.5 PPR.

K and D I've already touched on, I don't like taking 3 of each but I think I'm in the minority there. And I think your roster is pretty solid as-is, there's nothing that jumps out immediately where I'd say you could've used that $6 to improve. I probably would've added another WR or something but that's a minor quibble.

Overall, I like this team a lot, it's very similar to the kind of entry I like to submit. But like I said, I've never won the $25k or anything, so what do I know? :)
Yeah, I'm a big fan of 3 of each. Every position can make or break you. While K/D rarely go over 20, they do get high teens often and an extra K/D can easily mean an extra 10-15 pts on any given week.
 
Bass/Iggy... if you're game for another roster analysis I'd love your take. Have made it to W10 once or twice in the last five years, but never further. Aaron Rodgers $31 Blaine Gabbert $6Darren McFadden $26 Jamaal Charles $24 Marshawn Lynch $19 Alex Green $6 Rashard Mendenhall $4 Jonathan Dwyer $4 Cedric Benson $3Vincent Jackson $19 Torrey Smith $16 Mike Wallace $16 Pierre Garcon $14 Justin Blackmon $7 Jerome Simpson $7 Jon Baldwin $4Antonio Gates $20 Martellus Bennett $4 Dwayne Allen $2Rian Lindell $3 Justin Medlock $3 Connor Barth $3Carolina Panthers $3 Miami Dolphins $3 Washington Redskins $3
Looks like a perfect roster allocation to me.Regarding player selection, I would have found a way to upgrade Charles to Foster. Not a big fan of VJax, thought Marshall was a better value. That said, I'd probably trade you teams straight up.
 
Bass/Iggy... if you're game for another roster analysis I'd love your take. Have made it to W10 once or twice in the last five years, but never further.
I'll do another one, but I'm not making a habit out of this. ;) Also I don't want anyone to think I really know what I'm talking about, I've made it to the finals once or twice, made it to week 13 last year IIRC, but I've also gotten booted in weeks 4 and 5 some years too, so I don't really know better than anyone else here what it takes to win.Anyway, I like your team a lot. It's roughly similar to my own entry, if not in player selection, at least in philosophy.

Like the previous poster, you also spent $37 at QB but I like your setup better than the 4 QB one. Rodgers is a stud QB who should consistently put up starter-worthy points, while Gabbert is insurance for the bye week and in the unlikely event that Rodgers puts up a total stinker. And in case anyone's inclined to ask, "What if Rodgers gets hurt?" or something like that, I don't think that's something you should be concerned with in a contest like this. Injuries are impossible to predict, and if one of your high-priced players gets hurt, no amount of planning will be that much help. If you have more backups, or higher priced backups, you're just pulling money away from other positions where it's much more likely to contribute to your overall score.

At RB my only minor concern would be that you doubled up on PIT and GB RBs - on any given week, for example, it's likely that one or the other of Benson and Green will have some value, but probably not both. So even though you own 7 RBs, each week you may only be really going in with 5: your top three, and "Green Bay RB" and "Pittsburgh RB." But they're all so cheap it's not that big of a deal - I think I said earlier in the thread something to the effect that for a total of $17, you have (hopefully) locked up "Starting RB" for Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Not too shabby. Where else in the contest could you get the starting RBs for two good teams for that price? McFadden, Charles, and Lynch should hopefully combine to produce stud-like RB stats most weeks.

Like the previous poster, I don't think anyone's going to look at your WR corps and declare it a weakness. I personally prefer more than 7 here, and I probably would've found a way to add one more (maybe by ditching the third K and D) but in reality, 7 is plenty to keep you alive and perform in the finals if you get there.

Gates is assumed to be a stud TE again, and I was high on Bennett this year at TE, I think the Giants will find a way to make him productive (see how Eli kept feeding him in the red zone last week?). I honestly don't really know anything about Allen but for $2 you can't really go wrong - you already flexed him once, and while it didn't make a difference this week, you could say you already got your money's worth. Later in the year when your other guys are on bye he may actually keep you afloat with a random TD or a bunch of catches at 1.5 PPR.

K and D I've already touched on, I don't like taking 3 of each but I think I'm in the minority there. And I think your roster is pretty solid as-is, there's nothing that jumps out immediately where I'd say you could've used that $6 to improve. I probably would've added another WR or something but that's a minor quibble.

Overall, I like this team a lot, it's very similar to the kind of entry I like to submit. But like I said, I've never won the $25k or anything, so what do I know? :)
Yeah, I'm a big fan of 3 of each. Every position can make or break you. While K/D rarely go over 20, they do get high teens often and an extra K/D can easily mean an extra 10-15 pts on any given week.
The kicker scoring was bumped up this year and I think many missed that. Basically it's another .5 per FG. Actually it's more than that because the kickers will make the shorter ones within the 10 yard range more often than the longer ones and the 50 yard range is definately bottom loaded. Probably looking at .6 to .65 increase per FG v. previous years.
 
216.30 this week. Went for quantity w/ a couple of studs & maxed out on cheap Ds & Ks. I think my biggest problem will be the week 7 bye.

Joe Flacco $11

Sam Bradford $10

Blaine Gabbert $6

Ryan Tannehill. $4

Doug Martin $21

Michael Turner $18

Peyton Hillis $14

Rashard Mendenhall $4

Dexter McCluster $3

Cedric Benson $3

Victor Cruz $22

Eric Decker $17

Torrey Smith $16

Justin Blackmon $7

Davone Bess $6

Kendall Wright $6

Danny Amendola $6

Andre Roberts $3

Jimmy Graham $29

Lance Kendricks $9

Dallas Clark $7

Martellus Bennett $4

Rob Bironas $3

Ryan Succop $3

Matt Prater $3

Connor Barth $3

Cincinnati Bengals $3

Kansas City Chiefs $3

Cleveland Browns $3

Washington Redskins $3

 
Thanks guys. It'll be nice to know that I didn't do anything glaringly wrong except pick the wrong guys when I get knocked out next week. ;)

 
'BassNBrew said:
The kicker scoring was bumped up this year and I think many missed that. Basically it's another .5 per FG. Actually it's more than that because the kickers will make the shorter ones within the 10 yard range more often than the longer ones and the 50 yard range is definately bottom loaded. Probably looking at .6 to .65 increase per FG v. previous years.
:confused:Pretty sure it's still the same 3 for 0-29, 4 for 30-39, 5 for 40-49, 6 for 50+ that it's been the last couple of years...-QG
 
Okay, the moment I'm sure you all have been waiting for...QB - 3 for $34. While it was only preseason, it was clear that the Falcons change in OC is going to have a great beneficial effect for Ryan. It's a little dangerous of course but that division also shapes up as one that will have a fair number of shootout type games. I'm a 3 QB guy, I just hate the risk of injury too much to go with just 2. Locker seems to have the goods and is good value as a #2. Gabbert's at least talking the talk and as a cheap flier was worh the risk (and I figured less would take him that the $4 Tannehill). Matt Ryan $19Jake Locker $9Blaine Gabbert $6---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------RB - 6 for $73. I usually roll with a group similar to this. Hope I don't regret picking Foster with his injury issues. I grabbed Lynch in place of Doug Martin (and spent the additional $2 on Gabbert) largely because of how the bye-weeks were shaking out - I wanted to diversify. Amazing to think that Ced Benson is a no-brainer, but he is. He's not all that good but has the benefit of being a perfect fit for what GB likes to do. Royster and Jones had good projection numbers and seemed reasonable gambles. Kinda fear the Detroit RB situation, but took a shot on Smith.Arian Foster $34Marshawn Lynch $19Kevin Smith $12Cedric Benson $3Evan Royster $3Taiwan Jones $2---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WR - 9 for $77. I'm sure the Ryan-Jones combo is quite common, but value-wise I think it just makes sense. There's too many other good options to see Julio to get as much coverage as teams would like. Dez is a bargain as long as he doesn't get stupid again :unsure: . Young as a usual #3 seemed like a nice price in that offense. I like to have a bunch of back-end guys that can do stuff and put up the occasional solid game. I think this accomplishes that - Blackmon being a total boom/bust choice IMO. Would have liked to have sneaked a Bronco WR in here as I think they'll benefit from having a real QB (with a HOF pedigree at that).Julio Jones $23Dez Bryant $18Titus Young $10Justin Blackmon $7Danny Amendola $6Mario Manningham $4Jonathan Baldwin $4Harry Douglas $3Ryan Broyles $2---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TE - 3 for $47. Oops. This is what happens when you are traveling and trying to put together one of these teams. Don't get me wrong, I expect to get solid production and have 2 of these guys count almost every week, but this was overkill. Really love the upside of Gresham this year and couldn't take him out - he's the real #2 option in Cincinnati. I should've bought a $4/$5 guy like M Bennett and used the $6 elsewhere.Aaron Hernandez $23Jermaine Gresham $13Greg Olsen $11---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------PK - 3 for $9. Variance, variance, variance. I always go 3 for PK and Defense. And there's really a lot of value with all 3 of these guys as well as they all have strong legs that can lead to big points week. I wish I had done everything else as well as this.Rob Bironas $3Matt Prater $3Mike Nugent $3---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------DEF - 3 for $10. Again, this is a case of diversify and conquer. The Jets seem really cheap at $4, especially with how much the defense will probably be on the field (and since scoring defense doesn't matter this is okay). The Bengals and Saints both should play above their $3 price tag as well. I just don't see spending the top $ on this position - more is better here.New York Jets $4Cincinnati Bengals $3New Orleans Saints $3So there you go, I'm a 27-man roster guy this season. Big rosters may be out of fashion but I still feel good rolling this way. :boxing: -QG
I want Iggy and Bass to critique my self-critique :) -QG
 
'BassNBrew said:
The kicker scoring was bumped up this year and I think many missed that. Basically it's another .5 per FG. Actually it's more than that because the kickers will make the shorter ones within the 10 yard range more often than the longer ones and the 50 yard range is definately bottom loaded. Probably looking at .6 to .65 increase per FG v. previous years.
:confused:Pretty sure it's still the same 3 for 0-29, 4 for 30-39, 5 for 40-49, 6 for 50+ that it's been the last couple of years...-QG
I believe in the past it was 3 points for a FG and .1 pt for every yard over 30.
 
'BassNBrew said:
The kicker scoring was bumped up this year and I think many missed that. Basically it's another .5 per FG. Actually it's more than that because the kickers will make the shorter ones within the 10 yard range more often than the longer ones and the 50 yard range is definately bottom loaded. Probably looking at .6 to .65 increase per FG v. previous years.
:confused:Pretty sure it's still the same 3 for 0-29, 4 for 30-39, 5 for 40-49, 6 for 50+ that it's been the last couple of years...-QG
I believe in the past it was 3 points for a FG and .1 pt for every yard over 30.
:no: -QG
 
'BassNBrew said:
The kicker scoring was bumped up this year and I think many missed that. Basically it's another .5 per FG. Actually it's more than that because the kickers will make the shorter ones within the 10 yard range more often than the longer ones and the 50 yard range is definately bottom loaded. Probably looking at .6 to .65 increase per FG v. previous years.
:confused:Pretty sure it's still the same 3 for 0-29, 4 for 30-39, 5 for 40-49, 6 for 50+ that it's been the last couple of years...-QG
I believe in the past it was 3 points for a FG and .1 pt for every yard over 30.
:no: -QG
I stand corrected. You are right. Not sure why people are saying Kicker scoring changed then.
 
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'BassNBrew said:
The kicker scoring was bumped up this year and I think many missed that. Basically it's another .5 per FG. Actually it's more than that because the kickers will make the shorter ones within the 10 yard range more often than the longer ones and the 50 yard range is definately bottom loaded. Probably looking at .6 to .65 increase per FG v. previous years.
:confused:Pretty sure it's still the same 3 for 0-29, 4 for 30-39, 5 for 40-49, 6 for 50+ that it's been the last couple of years...-QG
I believe in the past it was 3 points for a FG and .1 pt for every yard over 30.
:no: -QG
I stand corrected. You are right. Not sure why people are saying Kicker scoring changed then.
Yup...I missed that one. For someone reason I was thinking the .1 was in effect last year. Either way, that's why I like 3 kickers.
 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'pizzatyme said:
Meh, muddling along. Someone tell me I don't stand a chance so I can pay less attention. :DSchaub Luck Skelton TebowMcGahee Kevin Smith M. Bush Ra. Jennings Mendy Benson Royster TaiwanCalvin Dez Antonio Brown Decker Crabtree Steve E. Smith HankersonDaniels Olsen KendricksVinatieri Barth TynesSeahawks Falcons Panthers155.9 169.7Anything to see here?
I don't think you spent too much at QB, but it's not allocated optimally (IMO). If you're going to spend $37 at QB I'd rather have a stud and 1-2 cheap bye week fillers. I think 4 QBs is overkill when you can only start one per I week, and I believe quality trumps quantity at this position.You have 9 RBs but only spent a total of $61, and it shows that you're potentially thin on higher-end talent. Are you really comfortable with Kevin Smith as your (dollar-wise) RB2? That said, there was a lot of apparent value in guys like Benson, Mendy, Royster, etc. this year so this may have been the season to spend less at RB - I know I personally spent less than I usually do. I think I'd like it better if you had just a little more top-end talent. It is best-ball but I feel like you're going to run into at least one or two weeks where this entire group puts up a dud. The emergence of Michael Bush and the return of Mendenhall could quickly turn this into a solid squad, though.Nothing to complain about with the WR corps really. I think you spent the right amount of money and you've got some good talent there. Personally, I would've spent the same amout but spread it out over 8-9 WRs instead of just 7, but that's a difference of philosophy. I don't think anyone would look at your roster and say WR is a weakness.TE is another position where philosophical differences come into play. Lots of people feel that you need a bona fide stud to take advantage of the 1.5 PPR. I think Daniels and Olsen presented value this year, though, so no problem there. I got burned by the Kendricks hype train last year so I didn't want any part of him this year for $9. I'm a believer in going with just 2 at K and D but once again, that's an opinion many disagree with. Otherwise not much to say about that.If I was allowed to go back and make a couple of tweaks to this roster, I'd re-allocate the dollars at QB, get rid of Kendricks and the extra K and D and use that extra $15 to upgrade at RB or something.There are no glaring weaknesses on this roster. I think you'll face a small challenge in week 5 when your WR1, WR2, and RB2 are all on bye, but you have enough depth to see you through. I think if you get cut, it'll be more likely because your pool of QBs doesn't put up enough points to keep up with all the highly-owned studs. That, or it's relatively easy to envision a scenario where you just get a collective dud from your RB corps. Say week 7, McGahee is on bye, Kevin Smith has lost his starting gig to Leshoure, Michael Bush has been relegated behind Forte, Jennings is a nonfactor, Mendy has recently returned but is in a timeshare with Redman and Dwyer, Benson's still good value in GB, but Royster, Taiwan, and Ronnie Brown get a total of 0 carries. Something like that could take you down before the final 250. But that's the beauty of this contest - you never know. Maybe MJD gets hurt and Jennings becomes a top-10 RB, and late in the year guys like Hankerson and Kendricks become studs at their positions and carry you to the $25,000. For now, it's just "survive and advance" and anything can happen down the stretch.
Thank you for your excellent, well thought response.
 
Okay, the moment I'm sure you all have been waiting for...QB - 3 for $34. While it was only preseason, it was clear that the Falcons change in OC is going to have a great beneficial effect for Ryan. It's a little dangerous of course but that division also shapes up as one that will have a fair number of shootout type games. I'm a 3 QB guy, I just hate the risk of injury too much to go with just 2. Locker seems to have the goods and is good value as a #2. Gabbert's at least talking the talk and as a cheap flier was worh the risk (and I figured less would take him that the $4 Tannehill). Matt Ryan $19Jake Locker $9Blaine Gabbert $6---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------RB - 6 for $73. I usually roll with a group similar to this. Hope I don't regret picking Foster with his injury issues. I grabbed Lynch in place of Doug Martin (and spent the additional $2 on Gabbert) largely because of how the bye-weeks were shaking out - I wanted to diversify. Amazing to think that Ced Benson is a no-brainer, but he is. He's not all that good but has the benefit of being a perfect fit for what GB likes to do. Royster and Jones had good projection numbers and seemed reasonable gambles. Kinda fear the Detroit RB situation, but took a shot on Smith.Arian Foster $34Marshawn Lynch $19Kevin Smith $12Cedric Benson $3Evan Royster $3Taiwan Jones $2---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WR - 9 for $77. I'm sure the Ryan-Jones combo is quite common, but value-wise I think it just makes sense. There's too many other good options to see Julio to get as much coverage as teams would like. Dez is a bargain as long as he doesn't get stupid again :unsure: . Young as a usual #3 seemed like a nice price in that offense. I like to have a bunch of back-end guys that can do stuff and put up the occasional solid game. I think this accomplishes that - Blackmon being a total boom/bust choice IMO. Would have liked to have sneaked a Bronco WR in here as I think they'll benefit from having a real QB (with a HOF pedigree at that).Julio Jones $23Dez Bryant $18Titus Young $10Justin Blackmon $7Danny Amendola $6Mario Manningham $4Jonathan Baldwin $4Harry Douglas $3Ryan Broyles $2---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TE - 3 for $47. Oops. This is what happens when you are traveling and trying to put together one of these teams. Don't get me wrong, I expect to get solid production and have 2 of these guys count almost every week, but this was overkill. Really love the upside of Gresham this year and couldn't take him out - he's the real #2 option in Cincinnati. I should've bought a $4/$5 guy like M Bennett and used the $6 elsewhere.Aaron Hernandez $23Jermaine Gresham $13Greg Olsen $11---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------PK - 3 for $9. Variance, variance, variance. I always go 3 for PK and Defense. And there's really a lot of value with all 3 of these guys as well as they all have strong legs that can lead to big points week. I wish I had done everything else as well as this.Rob Bironas $3Matt Prater $3Mike Nugent $3---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------DEF - 3 for $10. Again, this is a case of diversify and conquer. The Jets seem really cheap at $4, especially with how much the defense will probably be on the field (and since scoring defense doesn't matter this is okay). The Bengals and Saints both should play above their $3 price tag as well. I just don't see spending the top $ on this position - more is better here.New York Jets $4Cincinnati Bengals $3New Orleans Saints $3So there you go, I'm a 27-man roster guy this season. Big rosters may be out of fashion but I still feel good rolling this way. :boxing: -QG
I want Iggy and Bass to critique my self-critique :) -QG
QB - My thoughts on the QB position is that having one guy who's likely to put up 30+ pts 2 out of the 3 playoff weeks is a must. You accomplished this with Ryan. I strongly disagree about three QBs. I've played ten plus years in this format, multiple leagues and even a decent back-up QB is a waste if you land a stud. I think you take a low priced back up guaranteed a job to cover a missed week or two plus the bye. Either Lock or Gabbert was wasted money. That's $6 or $9 that could have been used towards improving your score. If you make the final 250, you'll be spouting numerous other Ryan owners some cash at other positions.RB - I think you nailed it here. Two starters/studs and a cheap starter for fill in points. Smith is obviously a wildcard.WR - Like the depth, just think you needed one more explosive type guy like Wallace, Marshall, etc in the mix. Regarding Dez...you're brave.TE - Maybe a little bit of over kill here. If Benson keeps rocking you may not get your flex here often. Of course with Hernadez out this looks better, I just don't believe in building squads planning for injuries when going up against 13000 others.K/D - I'm a big believer in 3 of each. They don't get hurt often and throw up random numbers. You're strong here.Maybe some hindsight here, but I dump Locker/Gabbert for Flacco/Luck and save $4. Pass on Kevin Smith and take a gamble in the $4-$9 range. Now banking $8-$13. Dump one of the $4 WRs...now at $12-$17. Drop Gresham or Olsen for a 3rd TE in the $2-$6 range...now banking $14-$23. Add someone from the Britt to Marshall range at WR and you have another WR difference maker without sacrificing much add'l scoring. The other option would have been to use the cash to upgrade the RB to a 3rd stud.
 
Well, my team performed below average this past week and I was quite thankful to survive the cut by a mere 5 points. So based on my 2 cents, here's my current analysis of studs/duds.

QB ($31): QBBC approach

Freeman, Fitzpatrick, and Tannehill. Over two weeks, I have averaged 23 points from this position with thanks to Fitzpatrick for using his score in Wks 1 and 2. Freeman hasn't been performing well and Tannehill showed signs of life last week, so that's helpful.

RB ($79): Went with high PPR type guys with early byes.

Forte, McFadden, Ridley, Mendenhall, Benson, Royster. Meh, not much to see here. Injury to Forte is concerning and I need McFadden and Ridley to remember how to tote the rock. Best $3 I spent was on Benson who saved my bacon last week. Ideally by end of season, I should have 5 solid contributors to pick from. Mendy for $4 early on seemed to be a no brainer and I am hoping he comes back strong.

WR ($78): Went with volume. Wanted 1 stud, a couple of 2s, and a bunch of upsides.

Marshall, Britt, Young, Blackmon, Brown, Smith, Baldwin, Hankerson, Jean, Royal, Broyles. What a brutal week last week. 11 guys, where I realized Brown is out till midseason, so 10 guys to put up points. Figured Young would contribute week in and out, but has left much to be desired. Marshall tanking also screwed me the past week. Only good side here is seeing Hankerson involved and Baldwin starting to catch some passes. Broyles hasn't made the field yet. This group has to improve or I am dead in the near future.

TE ($40): Spent the money here as I thought my flex would come out from this group.

Gates, Rudolph, Kendricks. I had hope for Kendricks and thought he would come on stronger. Nope. Oh well waste of $9. Rudolph has been consistent, but I had really planned on Gates carrying the load here, especially with VJax leaving SD, I figured he was a lock for 10 TDs.

PK ($11): Went with kickers on top 10 offenses

Henery, Hanson, Suisham. Hanson is automatic for me every year. He just puts up points (33 points in the last two weeks).

TD ($11): Big fan of the DTBC theory. After reading the article earlier this year, I had planned on going with BUF + MIA strategy.

BUF, MIA, NO. Week 1 Buffalo was disappointing, after week 2 I felt better. NO has yet to contribute to the roster

So all in all, I believe my team is meh for this year. Guys I thought would do well just haven't been producing. While not a sexy team by any stretch, if some of the WRs start contributing or getting some receptions, this team may go a bit farther. Looking at wasted money so far, I would think I've wasted about $21. Jury is still out on Britt, but if the O-line doesn't shape up, that'll be some more wasted cash.

 
Found a team I like a whole lot...small roster (2K & 2D) and Fred Davis appears to be a bit of a miss right now, but he seems to have a great set of RB/WR with Ryan/Locker at QB. Finished #13 this week.

Team "Payne"

 
Found a team I like a whole lot...small roster (2K & 2D) and Fred Davis appears to be a bit of a miss right now, but he seems to have a great set of RB/WR with Ryan/Locker at QB. Finished #13 this week.

Team "Payne"
Pretty much nailed it. My only question would be the cash spent on Tate. As a Foster owner I oscillated on this one and eventually discarded Tate for Britt or upgrading Davis to Graham. Tate only netted him 10 pts this week even with a very special performance. having Graham instead of Davis/Tate would have captured 8 of those 10 pts.
 
Found a team I like a whole lot...small roster (2K & 2D) and Fred Davis appears to be a bit of a miss right now, but he seems to have a great set of RB/WR with Ryan/Locker at QB. Finished #13 this week.

Team "Payne"
Pretty much nailed it. My only question would be the cash spent on Tate. As a Foster owner I oscillated on this one and eventually discarded Tate for Britt or upgrading Davis to Graham. Tate only netted him 10 pts this week even with a very special performance. having Graham instead of Davis/Tate would have captured 8 of those 10 pts.
See, I look at a team like that and I can't get past the lack of depth. Sure he's got firepower, and a handful of 18-19 man rosters are going to make the final 250, just because there are a million of them submitted, and there's no reason to believe that this won't be one of the lucky few. But after just two weeks, we've already seen two of his top 3 WRs put up "dud" weeks and now Nicks is out for week 3. Once the bye weeks start rolling through that lack of depth really starts taking its toll. And here's the thing that I was talking about a few weeks ago - I think the lower-priced studs made a stronger case for larger rosters this year. This team definitely has some star power on it, but so do a lot of larger rosters. In the past, it was like, "Do I go small roster and take guys like Foster and Calvin? Or do I go large-roster and take lesser talent?" But this year you could field a larger roster and still find room in the budget for guys like Foster and Calvin. So a team like this still has all the disadvantages of being small, and it's presumed advantage in the talent department is probably somewhat smaller than it usually is compared to the rest of the field.

 
Found a team I like a whole lot...small roster (2K & 2D) and Fred Davis appears to be a bit of a miss right now, but he seems to have a great set of RB/WR with Ryan/Locker at QB. Finished #13 this week.

Team "Payne"
Pretty much nailed it. My only question would be the cash spent on Tate. As a Foster owner I oscillated on this one and eventually discarded Tate for Britt or upgrading Davis to Graham. Tate only netted him 10 pts this week even with a very special performance. having Graham instead of Davis/Tate would have captured 8 of those 10 pts.
See, I look at a team like that and I can't get past the lack of depth. Sure he's got firepower, and a handful of 18-19 man rosters are going to make the final 250, just because there are a million of them submitted, and there's no reason to believe that this won't be one of the lucky few. But after just two weeks, we've already seen two of his top 3 WRs put up "dud" weeks and now Nicks is out for week 3. Once the bye weeks start rolling through that lack of depth really starts taking its toll. And here's the thing that I was talking about a few weeks ago - I think the lower-priced studs made a stronger case for larger rosters this year. This team definitely has some star power on it, but so do a lot of larger rosters. In the past, it was like, "Do I go small roster and take guys like Foster and Calvin? Or do I go large-roster and take lesser talent?" But this year you could field a larger roster and still find room in the budget for guys like Foster and Calvin. So a team like this still has all the disadvantages of being small, and it's presumed advantage in the talent department is probably somewhat smaller than it usually is compared to the rest of the field.
QB - Ryan (stud), Locker (safety net) - Looks good here.RB - Foster (Tate), Martin, Lynch, Benson - Guaranteed Texan stud, 2 very good backs, and a starter in Benson. 2 scores covered, probably a flex here.

WR - CJ/Marshall/Nicks (3x stud), Blackmon/Amendola/Baldwin - Suspect he'll only need one back-up to field a score each week. Even with the Marshall bad outing, Nicks more than made up for that.

TE - Davis/Celek - potential week spot.

K/D - Only 2 each, could lose some ground here.

 
'BassNBrew said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'BassNBrew said:
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
Found a team I like a whole lot...small roster (2K & 2D) and Fred Davis appears to be a bit of a miss right now, but he seems to have a great set of RB/WR with Ryan/Locker at QB. Finished #13 this week.

Team "Payne"
Pretty much nailed it. My only question would be the cash spent on Tate. As a Foster owner I oscillated on this one and eventually discarded Tate for Britt or upgrading Davis to Graham. Tate only netted him 10 pts this week even with a very special performance. having Graham instead of Davis/Tate would have captured 8 of those 10 pts.
See, I look at a team like that and I can't get past the lack of depth. Sure he's got firepower, and a handful of 18-19 man rosters are going to make the final 250, just because there are a million of them submitted, and there's no reason to believe that this won't be one of the lucky few. But after just two weeks, we've already seen two of his top 3 WRs put up "dud" weeks and now Nicks is out for week 3. Once the bye weeks start rolling through that lack of depth really starts taking its toll. And here's the thing that I was talking about a few weeks ago - I think the lower-priced studs made a stronger case for larger rosters this year. This team definitely has some star power on it, but so do a lot of larger rosters. In the past, it was like, "Do I go small roster and take guys like Foster and Calvin? Or do I go large-roster and take lesser talent?" But this year you could field a larger roster and still find room in the budget for guys like Foster and Calvin. So a team like this still has all the disadvantages of being small, and it's presumed advantage in the talent department is probably somewhat smaller than it usually is compared to the rest of the field.
QB - Ryan (stud), Locker (safety net) - Looks good here.RB - Foster (Tate), Martin, Lynch, Benson - Guaranteed Texan stud, 2 very good backs, and a starter in Benson. 2 scores covered, probably a flex here.

WR - CJ/Marshall/Nicks (3x stud), Blackmon/Amendola/Baldwin - Suspect he'll only need one back-up to field a score each week. Even with the Marshall bad outing, Nicks more than made up for that.

TE - Davis/Celek - potential week spot.

K/D - Only 2 each, could lose some ground here.
I don't see how that addresses my point at all, though. I know he's got lots of talent. That's not the problem. If having a bunch of studs made up for the inherent weaknesses of an 18- or19-man roster, then we wouldn't see small rosters get slaughtered every year. But we do. That's because small rosters have flaws that aren't fixed simply by having good players. These guys are going to have bad weeks, it's practically inevitable, and once the bye weeks start rolling in there's no margin for error.

 
Matt Ryan $19

Matt Schaub $13

Jake Locker $9

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fred Jackson $21

Willis McGahee $16

Ryan Williams $12

David Wilson $9

Mikel Leshoure $9

Cedric Benson $3

Evan Royster $3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jordy Nelson $20

Eric Decker $17

Mike Wallace $16

Austin Collie $9

Justin Blackmon $7

Danny Amendola $6

Rueben Randle $4

Kevin Ogletree $3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jimmy Graham $29

Martellus Bennett $4

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ryan Succop $3

Matt Prater $3

Rian Lindell $3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Bears $5

Seattle Seahawks $4

Kansas City Chiefs $3

I am usually a sucker for a star-studded team but this year I decided to finally listen to those smarter than me and go for the larger roster. my glaring weakness to me is at RB but hopefully that is where the larger roster randomness finds help along the way. Worked so for will both TEs being scored each week, getting LeShoure and FJax active will be nice

 
'BassNBrew said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'BassNBrew said:
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
Found a team I like a whole lot...small roster (2K & 2D) and Fred Davis appears to be a bit of a miss right now, but he seems to have a great set of RB/WR with Ryan/Locker at QB. Finished #13 this week.

Team "Payne"
Pretty much nailed it. My only question would be the cash spent on Tate. As a Foster owner I oscillated on this one and eventually discarded Tate for Britt or upgrading Davis to Graham. Tate only netted him 10 pts this week even with a very special performance. having Graham instead of Davis/Tate would have captured 8 of those 10 pts.
See, I look at a team like that and I can't get past the lack of depth. Sure he's got firepower, and a handful of 18-19 man rosters are going to make the final 250, just because there are a million of them submitted, and there's no reason to believe that this won't be one of the lucky few. But after just two weeks, we've already seen two of his top 3 WRs put up "dud" weeks and now Nicks is out for week 3. Once the bye weeks start rolling through that lack of depth really starts taking its toll. And here's the thing that I was talking about a few weeks ago - I think the lower-priced studs made a stronger case for larger rosters this year. This team definitely has some star power on it, but so do a lot of larger rosters. In the past, it was like, "Do I go small roster and take guys like Foster and Calvin? Or do I go large-roster and take lesser talent?" But this year you could field a larger roster and still find room in the budget for guys like Foster and Calvin. So a team like this still has all the disadvantages of being small, and it's presumed advantage in the talent department is probably somewhat smaller than it usually is compared to the rest of the field.
QB - Ryan (stud), Locker (safety net) - Looks good here.RB - Foster (Tate), Martin, Lynch, Benson - Guaranteed Texan stud, 2 very good backs, and a starter in Benson. 2 scores covered, probably a flex here.

WR - CJ/Marshall/Nicks (3x stud), Blackmon/Amendola/Baldwin - Suspect he'll only need one back-up to field a score each week. Even with the Marshall bad outing, Nicks more than made up for that.

TE - Davis/Celek - potential week spot.

K/D - Only 2 each, could lose some ground here.
Would you rather have that squad or this one?They share a lot of key players (Ryan, Locker, Foster, Benson, Calvin, Marshall, Amendola, FDavis) so let's look at where they differ:

RB: Payne has Martin, Lynch, and Tate. Teat has McGahee, Wilson, Mendenhall, McCluster, and Royster.

WR: Payne has Nicks, Blackmon, and Baldwin. Teat has Decker, Hankerson, Henderson, and Ogletree.

TE: Payne has Celek. Teat has Graham and Dreesen.

K and D: They both spent exactly $18, but Teat has an extra kicker. Head-to-head, Teat won one week and Payne won one week at each of these positions.

So at RB, Payne has the advantage, at least talent-wise. Over the season Teat could close the gap as Mendenhall returns and Wilson grabs a share of the Giants workload, but currently the edge goes to Payne.

At WR, Nicks is presumably an upgrade over Decker, but of course he's out this week. OF all positions, WR is the one where I think quantity beats quality over time. I'd be inclined to call these groups a push right now.

At TE, Teat clearly has the advantage in quality and quantity.

Call K and D a wash (though Teat has the long-term advantage of a third kicker) and their QBs are identical.

Here's an unbelievable coincidence that I just realized: Both teams have scored exactly 421.60 points this year! Payne's smaller roster has exhibited more variance, with 183 one week and 238 another week; Teat's has been more consistent with scores of 206 and 215. In the final 250 the greater variance can prove to be an advantage, though over the course of the 13-week regular season it can be a detriment. The knock on larger rosters in the past has been that they lack the firepower to keep up with the smaller "stud-led" teams, but that's clearly not the case here. Teat's team has already proven capable of putting up consecutive 200+ point weeks, which is what it takes to finish high in the money.

I know which of these two I'd rather have. :shrug:

 
'BassNBrew said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'BassNBrew said:
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
Found a team I like a whole lot...small roster (2K & 2D) and Fred Davis appears to be a bit of a miss right now, but he seems to have a great set of RB/WR with Ryan/Locker at QB. Finished #13 this week.

Team "Payne"
Pretty much nailed it. My only question would be the cash spent on Tate. As a Foster owner I oscillated on this one and eventually discarded Tate for Britt or upgrading Davis to Graham. Tate only netted him 10 pts this week even with a very special performance. having Graham instead of Davis/Tate would have captured 8 of those 10 pts.
See, I look at a team like that and I can't get past the lack of depth. Sure he's got firepower, and a handful of 18-19 man rosters are going to make the final 250, just because there are a million of them submitted, and there's no reason to believe that this won't be one of the lucky few. But after just two weeks, we've already seen two of his top 3 WRs put up "dud" weeks and now Nicks is out for week 3. Once the bye weeks start rolling through that lack of depth really starts taking its toll. And here's the thing that I was talking about a few weeks ago - I think the lower-priced studs made a stronger case for larger rosters this year. This team definitely has some star power on it, but so do a lot of larger rosters. In the past, it was like, "Do I go small roster and take guys like Foster and Calvin? Or do I go large-roster and take lesser talent?" But this year you could field a larger roster and still find room in the budget for guys like Foster and Calvin. So a team like this still has all the disadvantages of being small, and it's presumed advantage in the talent department is probably somewhat smaller than it usually is compared to the rest of the field.
QB - Ryan (stud), Locker (safety net) - Looks good here.RB - Foster (Tate), Martin, Lynch, Benson - Guaranteed Texan stud, 2 very good backs, and a starter in Benson. 2 scores covered, probably a flex here.

WR - CJ/Marshall/Nicks (3x stud), Blackmon/Amendola/Baldwin - Suspect he'll only need one back-up to field a score each week. Even with the Marshall bad outing, Nicks more than made up for that.

TE - Davis/Celek - potential week spot.

K/D - Only 2 each, could lose some ground here.
Would you rather have that squad or this one?They share a lot of key players (Ryan, Locker, Foster, Benson, Calvin, Marshall, Amendola, FDavis) so let's look at where they differ:

RB: Payne has Martin, Lynch, and Tate. Teat has McGahee, Wilson, Mendenhall, McCluster, and Royster.

WR: Payne has Nicks, Blackmon, and Baldwin. Teat has Decker, Hankerson, Henderson, and Ogletree.

TE: Payne has Celek. Teat has Graham and Dreesen.

K and D: They both spent exactly $18, but Teat has an extra kicker. Head-to-head, Teat won one week and Payne won one week at each of these positions.

So at RB, Payne has the advantage, at least talent-wise. Over the season Teat could close the gap as Mendenhall returns and Wilson grabs a share of the Giants workload, but currently the edge goes to Payne.

At WR, Nicks is presumably an upgrade over Decker, but of course he's out this week. OF all positions, WR is the one where I think quantity beats quality over time. I'd be inclined to call these groups a push right now.

At TE, Teat clearly has the advantage in quality and quantity.

Call K and D a wash (though Teat has the long-term advantage of a third kicker) and their QBs are identical.

Here's an unbelievable coincidence that I just realized: Both teams have scored exactly 421.60 points this year! Payne's smaller roster has exhibited more variance, with 183 one week and 238 another week; Teat's has been more consistent with scores of 206 and 215. In the final 250 the greater variance can prove to be an advantage, though over the course of the 13-week regular season it can be a detriment. The knock on larger rosters in the past has been that they lack the firepower to keep up with the smaller "stud-led" teams, but that's clearly not the case here. Teat's team has already proven capable of putting up consecutive 200+ point weeks, which is what it takes to finish high in the money.

I know which of these two I'd rather have. :shrug:
This question serves as a rorschach test in that if you yourself prefer larger rosters than you will pick the larger one and the reverse would most likely be true if you prefer smaller rosters. I am at 25 this year, so I somewhat obviously also prefer the larger roster here. Though the vast majority of entrants are still going with smaller rosters so the majority opinion probably goes the other way. But this hopefully gives us a better chance.

Interesting that we are talking about a 24 man roster as a "larger" roster - would not have considered it such last year - even though it probably would have been in excess of the 75th percentile in size last year as well.

 
'BassNBrew said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'BassNBrew said:
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
Found a team I like a whole lot...small roster (2K & 2D) and Fred Davis appears to be a bit of a miss right now, but he seems to have a great set of RB/WR with Ryan/Locker at QB. Finished #13 this week.

Team "Payne"
Pretty much nailed it. My only question would be the cash spent on Tate. As a Foster owner I oscillated on this one and eventually discarded Tate for Britt or upgrading Davis to Graham. Tate only netted him 10 pts this week even with a very special performance. having Graham instead of Davis/Tate would have captured 8 of those 10 pts.
See, I look at a team like that and I can't get past the lack of depth. Sure he's got firepower, and a handful of 18-19 man rosters are going to make the final 250, just because there are a million of them submitted, and there's no reason to believe that this won't be one of the lucky few. But after just two weeks, we've already seen two of his top 3 WRs put up "dud" weeks and now Nicks is out for week 3. Once the bye weeks start rolling through that lack of depth really starts taking its toll. And here's the thing that I was talking about a few weeks ago - I think the lower-priced studs made a stronger case for larger rosters this year. This team definitely has some star power on it, but so do a lot of larger rosters. In the past, it was like, "Do I go small roster and take guys like Foster and Calvin? Or do I go large-roster and take lesser talent?" But this year you could field a larger roster and still find room in the budget for guys like Foster and Calvin. So a team like this still has all the disadvantages of being small, and it's presumed advantage in the talent department is probably somewhat smaller than it usually is compared to the rest of the field.
QB - Ryan (stud), Locker (safety net) - Looks good here.RB - Foster (Tate), Martin, Lynch, Benson - Guaranteed Texan stud, 2 very good backs, and a starter in Benson. 2 scores covered, probably a flex here.

WR - CJ/Marshall/Nicks (3x stud), Blackmon/Amendola/Baldwin - Suspect he'll only need one back-up to field a score each week. Even with the Marshall bad outing, Nicks more than made up for that.

TE - Davis/Celek - potential week spot.

K/D - Only 2 each, could lose some ground here.
Would you rather have that squad or this one?They share a lot of key players (Ryan, Locker, Foster, Benson, Calvin, Marshall, Amendola, FDavis) so let's look at where they differ:

RB: Payne has Martin, Lynch, and Tate. Teat has McGahee, Wilson, Mendenhall, McCluster, and Royster.

WR: Payne has Nicks, Blackmon, and Baldwin. Teat has Decker, Hankerson, Henderson, and Ogletree.

TE: Payne has Celek. Teat has Graham and Dreesen.

K and D: They both spent exactly $18, but Teat has an extra kicker. Head-to-head, Teat won one week and Payne won one week at each of these positions.

So at RB, Payne has the advantage, at least talent-wise. Over the season Teat could close the gap as Mendenhall returns and Wilson grabs a share of the Giants workload, but currently the edge goes to Payne.

At WR, Nicks is presumably an upgrade over Decker, but of course he's out this week. OF all positions, WR is the one where I think quantity beats quality over time. I'd be inclined to call these groups a push right now.

At TE, Teat clearly has the advantage in quality and quantity.

Call K and D a wash (though Teat has the long-term advantage of a third kicker) and their QBs are identical.

Here's an unbelievable coincidence that I just realized: Both teams have scored exactly 421.60 points this year! Payne's smaller roster has exhibited more variance, with 183 one week and 238 another week; Teat's has been more consistent with scores of 206 and 215. In the final 250 the greater variance can prove to be an advantage, though over the course of the 13-week regular season it can be a detriment. The knock on larger rosters in the past has been that they lack the firepower to keep up with the smaller "stud-led" teams, but that's clearly not the case here. Teat's team has already proven capable of putting up consecutive 200+ point weeks, which is what it takes to finish high in the money.

I know which of these two I'd rather have. :shrug:
I kind of like them both. :unsure: I agree that quantity beats quality at K/D. I think Graham is a huge leg up, but Payne could have gotten there without the excess at RB.

I like the quantity over quality at WR during the regular weeks, but CJ/White going off for nearly 80 pts combined in week 15 got it done for Blue Thunder last year. Off course the year before a big roster got it done mostly at TE.

It will be fun to watch it play out.

 
'BassNBrew said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'BassNBrew said:
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
Found a team I like a whole lot...small roster (2K & 2D) and Fred Davis appears to be a bit of a miss right now, but he seems to have a great set of RB/WR with Ryan/Locker at QB. Finished #13 this week.

Team "Payne"
Pretty much nailed it. My only question would be the cash spent on Tate. As a Foster owner I oscillated on this one and eventually discarded Tate for Britt or upgrading Davis to Graham. Tate only netted him 10 pts this week even with a very special performance. having Graham instead of Davis/Tate would have captured 8 of those 10 pts.
See, I look at a team like that and I can't get past the lack of depth. Sure he's got firepower, and a handful of 18-19 man rosters are going to make the final 250, just because there are a million of them submitted, and there's no reason to believe that this won't be one of the lucky few. But after just two weeks, we've already seen two of his top 3 WRs put up "dud" weeks and now Nicks is out for week 3. Once the bye weeks start rolling through that lack of depth really starts taking its toll. And here's the thing that I was talking about a few weeks ago - I think the lower-priced studs made a stronger case for larger rosters this year. This team definitely has some star power on it, but so do a lot of larger rosters. In the past, it was like, "Do I go small roster and take guys like Foster and Calvin? Or do I go large-roster and take lesser talent?" But this year you could field a larger roster and still find room in the budget for guys like Foster and Calvin. So a team like this still has all the disadvantages of being small, and it's presumed advantage in the talent department is probably somewhat smaller than it usually is compared to the rest of the field.
QB - Ryan (stud), Locker (safety net) - Looks good here.RB - Foster (Tate), Martin, Lynch, Benson - Guaranteed Texan stud, 2 very good backs, and a starter in Benson. 2 scores covered, probably a flex here.

WR - CJ/Marshall/Nicks (3x stud), Blackmon/Amendola/Baldwin - Suspect he'll only need one back-up to field a score each week. Even with the Marshall bad outing, Nicks more than made up for that.

TE - Davis/Celek - potential week spot.

K/D - Only 2 each, could lose some ground here.
Would you rather have that squad or this one?They share a lot of key players (Ryan, Locker, Foster, Benson, Calvin, Marshall, Amendola, FDavis) so let's look at where they differ:

RB: Payne has Martin, Lynch, and Tate. Teat has McGahee, Wilson, Mendenhall, McCluster, and Royster.

WR: Payne has Nicks, Blackmon, and Baldwin. Teat has Decker, Hankerson, Henderson, and Ogletree.

TE: Payne has Celek. Teat has Graham and Dreesen.

K and D: They both spent exactly $18, but Teat has an extra kicker. Head-to-head, Teat won one week and Payne won one week at each of these positions.

So at RB, Payne has the advantage, at least talent-wise. Over the season Teat could close the gap as Mendenhall returns and Wilson grabs a share of the Giants workload, but currently the edge goes to Payne.

At WR, Nicks is presumably an upgrade over Decker, but of course he's out this week. OF all positions, WR is the one where I think quantity beats quality over time. I'd be inclined to call these groups a push right now.

At TE, Teat clearly has the advantage in quality and quantity.

Call K and D a wash (though Teat has the long-term advantage of a third kicker) and their QBs are identical.

Here's an unbelievable coincidence that I just realized: Both teams have scored exactly 421.60 points this year! Payne's smaller roster has exhibited more variance, with 183 one week and 238 another week; Teat's has been more consistent with scores of 206 and 215. In the final 250 the greater variance can prove to be an advantage, though over the course of the 13-week regular season it can be a detriment. The knock on larger rosters in the past has been that they lack the firepower to keep up with the smaller "stud-led" teams, but that's clearly not the case here. Teat's team has already proven capable of putting up consecutive 200+ point weeks, which is what it takes to finish high in the money.

I know which of these two I'd rather have. :shrug:
I kind of like them both. :unsure: I agree that quantity beats quality at K/D. I think Graham is a huge leg up, but Payne could have gotten there without the excess at RB.

I like the quantity over quality at WR during the regular weeks, but CJ/White going off for nearly 80 pts combined in week 15 got it done for Blue Thunder last year. Off course the year before a big roster got it done mostly at TE.

It will be fun to watch it play out.
Agreed on all points. Only thing I'd say is that regarding the bolded, remember that I just listed the differences between the two squads. They both have Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall as WR1 and WR2, Matt Ryan as QB1, and Arian Foster as RB1. In the past, people have argued that only the small rosters have that kind of stud firepower that can put up consecutive 30+ point weeks. I think this year with the depressed pricing, that's no longer the case. I agree that in the final 250, you pretty much need to have those one or two guys who just go on a ridiculous run of scoring, and those guys are more often than not going to be high-priced "studs", but there are plenty of larger rosters this year that have those kind of players to go along with increased depth. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens.

 
I think it would be fun to try and decide on odds for the roster size of the contest winner. If you were running a sports book, what would you set the money line at for the following to win the $25k?

18-20 man roster

21-23 man roster

24-26 man roster

27-30 man roster

I'll have to think about this for a bit and will post up the odds I'd offer.

 
I think it would be fun to try and decide on odds for the roster size of the contest winner. If you were running a sports book, what would you set the money line at for the following to win the $25k?

18-20 man roster 0.1%

21-23 man roster 0.1%

24-26 man roster 99.7%

27-30 man roster 0.1%

I'll have to think about this for a bit and will post up the odds I'd offer.
I have a 24 man roster. :P
 
JedThis entry is still alive. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Matthew Stafford $26 18.05 16.50 bye Joe Flacco $11 26.85 15.60 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Ray Rice $33 24.30 21.20 bye LeSean McCoy $32 19.60 16.90 bye Dion Lewis $4 0.00 0.00 bye Cedric Benson $3 1.80 15.60 bye Bernard Pierce $3 1.90 0.40 bye Taiwan Jones $2 0.00 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Victor Cruz $22 11.80 34.90 bye Torrey Smith $16 9.00 7.10 bye Malcom Floyd $13 16.60 16.90 bye Danny Amendola $6 12.20 37.00 bye Steve Smith $5 2.60 6.90 bye Andre Roberts $3 17.90 7.20 bye Louis Murphy $2 9.30 0.00 bye Eddie Royal $2 3.60 3.80 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jimmy Graham $29 23.50 23.60 bye Antonio Gates $20 10.30 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Rob Bironas $3 7.00 4.00 bye Robbie Gould $3 12.00 6.00 bye Matt Prater $3 5.00 3.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Cincinnati Bengals $3 3.00 10.00 bye Kansas City Chiefs $3 1.00 0.00 bye Washington Redskins $3 8.00 14.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 172.75 202.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CUTOFF 0.00 139.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loving how my team is setting up - that probably means I'll be out this week. The only thing I may reconsider next year is rostering the backups to any stud RB's. Lewis is way down the depth chart now and Pierce is not getting any work. Probably would have been better off with a couple more flyers. Thoughts on the flyer vs backup strategy?

 
Thoughts on the flyer vs backup strategy?
I don't like taking backups in this contest, with a few rare exceptions. First of all, you shouldn't plan on your studs getting injured. When you pick your key players you just have to hope/assume they stay healthy. If they don't, you're probably finished no matter how you choose to mitigate that risk. If McCoy goes down, is Dion Lewis really going to replace the production you were getting from McCoy? Probably not. He might keep you afloat for an extra couple of weeks but he's unlikely to carry you to a championship.Plus, that highlights the other problem - Lewis only has value if McCoy goes down. It's not like they're both going to be great at the same time. I'd much rather have a flyer with the potential to blow up on the same week that my studs are also performing well, not one that only has that potential if my stud gets hurt. On your roster, for example, you have six RBs, but you really only have four, if that makes sense. You have Rice, McCoy, Benson, and Jones. Lewis and Pierce only get added to that list if you simultaneously remove Rice or McCoy. Meanwhile, other people with six RBs on their roster actually have all six with the potential to put up points every week.As I said, there are usually a few borderline exceptions. As we saw last week, a guy like Ben Tate can have value, whether or not you own Foster, and whether or not Foster is healthy. In that sense, though, I would view him more as a "flyer" than a "backup" anyway. I like your team, though, especially if Gates returns healthy and performs up to expectations. You could potentially flex a ton of points out of the TE position all year long with those two.
 
Here is my squad with a few points on each as to why I took these particular players

QB

Andy Dalton $14

Matt Schaub $13

Andrew Luck $11

Played around with a number of combos and this one had the best set of cost, upside, and pts per $. My only concern is making sure that Luck is playing Week 8 (if we make it that far) as the other two are on their bye week.

---------------------------------

Ray Rice $33

Doug Martin $21

Ryan Williams $12

Bilal Powell $4

Jonathan Dwyer $4

Evan Royster $3

Decided to go with a mix of upside and a stud. Helps that when Rice is on the bye week 8, aside from my QB's also on the bye, everyone else is available. Felt that he was the best of the studs for the price available. Went Ryan Williams as I think that Beanie is overrated. Hoping one of the final three backs contributes significantly by the end of the year. For the life of me, have no idea why I did not roster Cedric Benson.

---------------------------------

Calvin Johnson $29

Marques Colston $19

Mike Wallace $16

Justin Blackmon $7

Jon Baldwin $4

James Jones $3

Made sure that we had a good mix of stud WRs and possible upside guys. In retrospect, may be a little light here - instead of Blackmon, may have been better to spread that $7 around to cheaper flyers. Hopefully, he starts to contribute soon or this team won't be around long once bye weeks start to kick in. Only concern is that Megatron and Doug Martin have the same by, so hopefully Blackmon has a homerun that day.

---------------------------------

Antonio Gates $20

Kyle Rudolph $11

Dustin Keller $10

Thought this TE group would be solid but realize now that even though I entered it on the last day with 20 minutes to spare, I should have reallocated Keller's $10 differently. Would love to see Gates be a flex every week with one of the other two producing mad points, but doubt that will happen.

---------------------------------

Jason Hanson $4

Matt Bryant $4

Kickers. Who cares. So long as the bye week is different, we're good.

---------------------------------

New York Jets $4

Seattle Seahawks $4

Defense. A nice combo with different bye weeks. Once again, so long as the bye week is different, we're good.

So far, we have made it to Week #3 with plenty to spare in Week #2. Nice when your 3rd highest scorer (Luck, after Rice and Dalton) hasn't had to be used yet.

 
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Olsen making me feel less dumb for spending those $ :)

Actually a good night all the way for TE-inclined entries it would seem.

-QG

 
I need Bennett to keep it up in Aaron Hernandez' absence. I hit on Bennett, but my thought that Joel Dressen would be one of Mannings favorite targets was way, way off.

 

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