Next-LevelTMI really don't want to spend 11 on a backup QB...hmmm, wonder if I should roll the dice on the bye week?
I'm already there....jump into the pool....the water is warm.Next-LevelTMI really don't want to spend 11 on a backup QB...hmmm, wonder if I should roll the dice on the bye week?
Didn't realize flc was fishing. Carry on.

You will need more than 5. 7 is about the baseline. With this year's prices I have 9 WR's, with one priced top 10 and one priced top 20.I'm starting to re-think and second guess my WR strategy. Right now I only have 5 on my roster. Three high priced studs and two guys who I feel good about this year.Why I should go with this:On any given week, each player is capable of putting up 30+ points for the week. And in my opinion, you need players like this (doesn't have to be the WR position) to win the whole thing.Why I shouldn't go with this:On any given week, all WRs are capable of throwing up less than 5 points. If it so happens that 2 of them lay eggs on the same day, it will make it difficult to advance....especially during the five weeks that one of them are on a bye.Right now I'm fighting an inner battle of what to go with....stand pat with what I've got and swing for the fences or pick 5 guys between $13 and $20 with a couple guys lower priced guys I feel good about. I feel like the second option will help me advance through this competition, but doesn't give me an advantage if I make the finals. To win this, you will have to average over 200 points a week during the finals. What to do, what to do?
Here are the number of WRs owned by the top 5 entries in last year's final standings:You will need more than 5. 7 is about the baseline. With this year's prices I have 9 WR's, with one priced top 10 and one priced top 20.I'm starting to re-think and second guess my WR strategy. Right now I only have 5 on my roster...
1. BLUE THUNDER 6 2. JRiehl 73. Entry 110241 54. TimRucci XXXXXXX 55. jbird 5

However, having the entry at my fingertips makes me want to check and tinker. Really, I don't want to. Can someone lock this bad boy up??? Or perhaps there is a 12 step program or perhaps a mentor I could be referred to in order to help with my addiction.
Tweaked it again. Dropped down a RB to roster a back-up to one of my "starters". That gives me 3 legit "starters", 2 of their back-ups, and a cheapy gamble.'Tennessee_ATO said:Re-re-re-revised my roster. Here's what I have now, and I'm probably done with revisions.QB -- 2 (2 mid)RB -- 7 (stud, 3 mid, 3 cheap)WR -- 9 (5 mid, 4 cheap)TE -- 3 (mid, 2 cheap)PK -- 2Def -- 2
No you didn't. That's my point.Edited to further clarify your error:it's possible, but the odds are overwhelmingly against that. i showed you this.That's why three $10 WRs can outproduce one $30 WROK, so I'm going to project that every $10 WR is going to average 20 PPG, and every $20+ WR is going to average 8 PPG. Plug those into your Excel worksheet and voilà! I've "proven" that a combination of cheaper WRs is better than stud WRs. Does that seem like a pretty crappy analysis? Of course - but it's plagued by the same exact flaw as your own conclusions. You haven't actually demonstrated anything with your analysis, other than the relatively obvious, "Players who score more points are better than players who score fewer points."ignoratio, i've said time and time again to use your own projections. price doesn't have anything to with your projections.
Exactly. I mean he does show that you're probably better off taking a qb whom you think will be a stud over playing sort of a qbbc, but it opens a far more important question IMO. How much better is it? Say you even knew the end of year scoring for QBs, how much better is the #1 and #27 combo compared to say the #2 and #27 combo? What about the number3 and 27 combo? Is it worth the extra buck or two?Drop Wells and LaFell and add several more cheap RBs, WRs and TEs.As I read through the posts, I am a bit worried on the number of WR and RB that I have on the team. I also thought of taking a stud in each position, then getting low end after that. (Brady + Tannehill)??I am at the point that I am tired of picking players and am not sure if this second guessing is improving my odds or just making things worse. Since no one will copy the team that went out in the 4th round last year, here are my picks for this contest: Feel free to laugh, critique, suggest new players, etc.....QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/7 - $19QB - Joe Flacco - BAL/8 - $11RB - Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG/11 - $21RB - Marshawn Lynch - SEA/11 - $19RB - Chris Wells - ARI/10 - $13RB - Jacquizz Rodgers - ATL/7 - $10RB - Mikel Leshoure - DET/5 - $9RB - Jonathan Dwyer - PIT/4 - $4RB - Cedric Benson - GB/10 - $3WR - Wes Welker - NE/9 - $23WR - Jordy Nelson - GB/10 - $20WR - Torrey Smith - BAL/8 - $16WR - Brandon LaFell - CAR/6 - $10WR - Titus Young - DET/5 - $10WR - Davone Bess - MIA/7 - $6TE - Jermichael Finley - GB/10 - $16TE - Tony Gonzalez - ATL/7 - $13PK - Nate Kaeding - SD/7 - $4PK - Matt Bryant - ATL/7 - $4PK - Robbie Gould - CHI/6 - $3TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $6TD - Buffalo Bills - BUF/8 - $5TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/11 - $4
I've had this internal debate (who hasn't?) swinging for fences here, can't see winning it without taking measured risks.'HairySasquatch said:I'm starting to re-think and second guess my WR strategy. Right now I only have 5 on my roster. Three high priced studs and two guys who I feel good about this year.Why I should go with this:On any given week, each player is capable of putting up 30+ points for the week. And in my opinion, you need players like this (doesn't have to be the WR position) to win the whole thing.Why I shouldn't go with this:On any given week, all WRs are capable of throwing up less than 5 points. If it so happens that 2 of them lay eggs on the same day, it will make it difficult to advance....especially during the five weeks that one of them are on a bye.Right now I'm fighting an inner battle of what to go with....stand pat with what I've got and swing for the fences or pick 5 guys between $13 and $20 with a couple guys lower priced guys I feel good about. I feel like the second option will help me advance through this competition, but doesn't give me an advantage if I make the finals. To win this, you will have to average over 200 points a week during the finals. What to do, what to do?
Who was I kidding? Down to 23 players now after a slight change in perspective on some of my cheaper guys. Not sure if I like this version better than the previous one. I will likely go back and forth until the deadline.'Ignoratio Elenchi said:I don't anticipate any major changes
Surely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.
Surely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.
I believe there are generally 2 schools of thought in regards to this contest. One, is make a team that you think has the best shot at getting to the top 250, and hope that you have enough fire power to be in contention over the final three weeks. The other is build a team that has an increased chance of dominating over a 3 week stretch, but may be slightly less likely to make the top 250. Your hoping to make the top 250 with the assumption that if you do, you'll have an advantage. 3QB's, I think falls in the first category, 2 probably in the second. Of course there's some overlap.That has been my motto while building my team this year....Safe doesn't win this contest. I may have gone overboard however.Surely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.
What's the harm in taking a stab with a tannyhill or something for cheap as 3rd QB? Odds are that gives you more points than that one off TE that gets a cheap TD somewhere.Surely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.
imo, that's alot of $ at RB to lock up in guys that will be sharing the ball a lotRB - Jacquizz Rodgers - ATL/7 - $10RB - Mikel Leshoure - DET/5 - $9
It also depends on what exactly you mean by going from 2 QBs to 3 QBs. For example, are you replacing a $28 QB with two $14 QBs? Or are you keeping the $28 QB and adding a $14 QB? The latter strategy is obviously safer at the QB position (this is what I meant in my original reply), though overall there's a good chance that you're weakening your roster by pulling that extra $14 away from another position where it would be more useful. Who's more likely to bail you out during the season, that extra $14 QB or an extra $14 TE? Or two extra $7 WRs? The former strategy, though "safer" in the sense that you have two guys instead of one (and therefore are less susceptible to losing all that money at once to injury, etc.) introduces significant production risk - QB is the one position where you usually do get what you pay for, and two $14 guys likely won't replicate the stats of a single $28 guy, even in best-ball. I definitely belong to the school that believes in building the team with the best shot of surviving to the final 250, and then hoping for the best in the final three weeks. However, I'm also definitely a believer in 2 QBs instead of 3 - not simply because it's better for the final 250, but also because I actually think it's better for the regular season, too, once you consider the risks you assume by adding that third QB.Surely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.I believe there are generally 2 schools of thought in regards to this contest. One, is make a team that you think has the best shot at getting to the top 250, and hope that you have enough fire power to be in contention over the final three weeks. The other is build a team that has an increased chance of dominating over a 3 week stretch, but may be slightly less likely to make the top 250. Your hoping to make the top 250 with the assumption that if you do, you'll have an advantage. 3QB's, I think falls in the first category, 2 probably in the second. Of course there's some overlap.
Here are the final 250 standings from last year. If you know your six-digit team ID from last year, you can find your team at http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/######.php (replace the # signs with your team ID).Is there any way to see the results from last year, or at least see my team from last year?
I tend to disagree with the bolded, which is why I believe in 2 QBs. It's not simply about "more points," it's about "more likely to contribute to your starting lineup." For the season, Tannehill will probably score more points than some $4 TE, but (a) you can't flex a QB, and (b) I believe the more expensive QBs ahead of Tannehill on your roster are less likely to have a bad week than the more expensive TEs on your roster.What's the harm in taking a stab with a tannyhill or something for cheap as 3rd QB? Odds are that gives you more points than that one off TE that gets a cheap TD somewhere.Surely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.
Awesome, thanks.Here are the final 250 standings from last year. If you know your six-digit team ID from last year, you can find your team at http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/######.php (replace the # signs with your team ID).Is there any way to see the results from last year, or at least see my team from last year?
If you had a team nickname last year and remember what it was, you can go to this page and do a CTRL-F to find it.
I edited my post above to indicate that you can probably find your team nickname here.Awesome, thanks.Here are the final 250 standings from last year. If you know your six-digit team ID from last year, you can find your team at http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/######.php (replace the # signs with your team ID).Is there any way to see the results from last year, or at least see my team from last year?
If you had a team nickname last year and remember what it was, you can go to this page and do a CTRL-F to find it.
Here is a good example of a team built on the 2nd mindset you mention above. Barely makes the top 250, then explodes to finish 2nd overall. The strategy was obvious. Stayed healthy and it paid off. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/103801.phpSurely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.I believe there are generally 2 schools of thought in regards to this contest. One, is make a team that you think has the best shot at getting to the top 250, and hope that you have enough fire power to be in contention over the final three weeks. The other is build a team that has an increased chance of dominating over a 3 week stretch, but may be slightly less likely to make the top 250. Your hoping to make the top 250 with the assumption that if you do, you'll have an advantage. 3QB's, I think falls in the first category, 2 probably in the second. Of course there's some overlap.
Here is a good example of a team built on the 2nd mindset you mention above. Barely makes the top 250, then explodes to finish 2nd 1st overall. The strategy was obvious. Stayed healthy and it paid off. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/103801.phpSurely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.I believe there are generally 2 schools of thought in regards to this contest. One, is make a team that you think has the best shot at getting to the top 250, and hope that you have enough fire power to be in contention over the final three weeks.
The other is build a team that has an increased chance of dominating over a 3 week stretch, but may be slightly less likely to make the top 250. Your hoping to make the top 250 with the assumption that if you do, you'll have an advantage.
3QB's, I think falls in the first category, 2 probably in the second. Of course there's some overlap.
I agree. QB is an odd position because as you say, you usually get what you pay for. For a team that has one of Rodgers/Brees/Brady, adding even a $4 Tannehill as a 3rd qb, is probably going to be a waste of $4. He'll probably never count for you, and if he does count more than a handful of times, your team is probably in some hot water. On the other hand, a team with Bradford and Sanchez as their 2 QB's, probably will see some benefit from taking a $4 Tannehill. I'm probably in the camp of hope to make it to the top 250 with a "stud" lineup. What I really meant to say was that most (if not all) of the people in this camp will have 2 QB's (some only 1). While those in the get to the top 250 then hope for the best camp, will also probably tend to have 2 QB's (bc I think most agree it's the ideal strategy) but most (if not all) of the people with 3 QB's will be in this camp.It also depends on what exactly you mean by going from 2 QBs to 3 QBs. For example, are you replacing a $28 QB with two $14 QBs? Or are you keeping the $28 QB and adding a $14 QB? The latter strategy is obviously safer at the QB position (this is what I meant in my original reply), though overall there's a good chance that you're weakening your roster by pulling that extra $14 away from another position where it would be more useful. Who's more likely to bail you out during the season, that extra $14 QB or an extra $14 TE? Or two extra $7 WRs? The former strategy, though "safer" in the sense that you have two guys instead of one (and therefore are less susceptible to losing all that money at once to injury, etc.) introduces significant production risk - QB is the one position where you usually do get what you pay for, and two $14 guys likely won't replicate the stats of a single $28 guy, even in best-ball. I definitely belong to the school that believes in building the team with the best shot of surviving to the final 250, and then hoping for the best in the final three weeks. However, I'm also definitely a believer in 2 QBs instead of 3 - not simply because it's better for the final 250, but also because I actually think it's better for the regular season, too, once you consider the risks you assume by adding that third QB.Surely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.I believe there are generally 2 schools of thought in regards to this contest. One, is make a team that you think has the best shot at getting to the top 250, and hope that you have enough fire power to be in contention over the final three weeks. The other is build a team that has an increased chance of dominating over a 3 week stretch, but may be slightly less likely to make the top 250. Your hoping to make the top 250 with the assumption that if you do, you'll have an advantage. 3QB's, I think falls in the first category, 2 probably in the second. Of course there's some overlap.
Yup. I'm probably in this mindset, but really in the end I don't think either strategy makes much difference in your chances of winning the whole thing. What you gain by having a larger roster I think you lose most of it by having a relatively "weaker" lineup compared to the "stud" teams that make it to the top 250. And what you gain by having a relatively "stronger" lineup for the top 250, you lose because you're less likely to get there. As a caveat, when I talk about strength I'm really referring to this moment, when you're selecting your team. Over the course of the season, a large "weaker" roster could certainly turn into a large "star-studded" roster, and vice versa.Here is a good example of a team built on the 2nd mindset you mention above. Barely makes the top 250, then explodes to finish 2nd overall. The strategy was obvious. Stayed healthy and it paid off. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/103801.phpSurely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.I believe there are generally 2 schools of thought in regards to this contest. One, is make a team that you think has the best shot at getting to the top 250, and hope that you have enough fire power to be in contention over the final three weeks. The other is build a team that has an increased chance of dominating over a 3 week stretch, but may be slightly less likely to make the top 250. Your hoping to make the top 250 with the assumption that if you do, you'll have an advantage. 3QB's, I think falls in the first category, 2 probably in the second. Of course there's some overlap.
Hopefully soon. I'm already forming plans for which half dozen or so kickers I want to rotate into my lineup for Week 2 and beyond.Anyone know when they'll post the link to submit our week 2 lineups?![]()
My personal theory that just like in normal FF leagues, getting to the playoffs is more skill oriented and winning in the playoffs is more luck oriented. So I lean toward the bigger rosters to try to make it to the final 250. Then I pray.Yup. I'm probably in this mindset, but really in the end I don't think either strategy makes much difference in your chances of winning the whole thing. What you gain by having a larger roster I think you lose most of it by having a relatively "weaker" lineup compared to the "stud" teams that make it to the top 250. And what you gain by having a relatively "stronger" lineup for the top 250, you lose because you're less likely to get there. As a caveat, when I talk about strength I'm really referring to this moment, when you're selecting your team. Over the course of the season, a large "weaker" roster could certainly turn into a large "star-studded" roster, and vice versa.Here is a good example of a team built on the 2nd mindset you mention above. Barely makes the top 250, then explodes to finish 2nd overall. The strategy was obvious. Stayed healthy and it paid off. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2011/103801.phpSurely 3 QBs is safer than 2 QBs, but safe isn't what wins the contest.I never put much thought into this thing. On first glance it seems going 2QB may not be that safe. Seems it is the consensus strategy though.I believe there are generally 2 schools of thought in regards to this contest. One, is make a team that you think has the best shot at getting to the top 250, and hope that you have enough fire power to be in contention over the final three weeks. The other is build a team that has an increased chance of dominating over a 3 week stretch, but may be slightly less likely to make the top 250. Your hoping to make the top 250 with the assumption that if you do, you'll have an advantage. 3QB's, I think falls in the first category, 2 probably in the second. Of course there's some overlap.