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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ignoratio Elenchi
- Start date
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
If you think they'll consistently dominate the position the way they did last year, then I think they're worth the price tag. But it's questionable whether they'll put up those kinds of numbers again. And even if they do, you can get a combo like Finley and Gonzo or Pettigrew and Davis for the price of Graham. It's a tough call.
smarchit
Footballguy
Graham was a $15 mid range flyer for me last year. And while he admittedly carried my team right up until his Week 11 bye when I narrowly missed the cut, I don't think Gronk and him are the only way to get it done. I'm convinced that I've uncovered this year's bargain bin version of Graham, and used the money saved to build up other positions. As for Gronk, even on my traditional fantasy teams, I've always been a bigger believer in Hernandez, so I missed the boat on him last year, and am still bitterly holding out hope that Hernandez overtakes him this year. This contest is all about identifying the best VALUES to make your numbers work. It may be that top priced stud, or it could just as likely be a mid level guy that is ready to have a breakout year.
northwoods
Footballguy
I'll post my full roster tomorrow but to preview I pulled up my last year's roster and compared it to this year and found the following:
QB - Spent $3 less this year with the same # of guys (2)
RB - Spent $3 less this year with 2 fewer guys (7 vs. 9)
WR - Spent $6 more this year with 1 fewer guy (7 vs. 8)
TE - Spent $1 more this year on fewer guys
K - Spent $1 less on 1 less guy (3 vs. 4)
TD - Spent the same $$ on 1 less team (2 vs. 3)
Yep, my roster is going to be in the low 20's this year. Big change from last year's 28. I'm stressing out much less this year because I really like my team and have only made 1 change in the past week, upgrading to a higher $ WR droppping 1 on a key bit of news.
Bring on the lock...
QB - Spent $3 less this year with the same # of guys (2)
RB - Spent $3 less this year with 2 fewer guys (7 vs. 9)
WR - Spent $6 more this year with 1 fewer guy (7 vs. 8)
TE - Spent $1 more this year on fewer guys
K - Spent $1 less on 1 less guy (3 vs. 4)
TD - Spent the same $$ on 1 less team (2 vs. 3)
Yep, my roster is going to be in the low 20's this year. Big change from last year's 28. I'm stressing out much less this year because I really like my team and have only made 1 change in the past week, upgrading to a higher $ WR droppping 1 on a key bit of news.
Bring on the lock...
Haven't made any changes to my roster for about a week, so I think I'm pretty locked in:
QB 2 @ $38
RB 7 @ $89 3 Solid players @ about $20, 2@ around $10 and 2 fliers.
WR 8 @ $87 Same as RB's, except an additional flier.
TE 2 @ $23 2 guys who I think have top 5 potential, but should both be top 12 at minimum.
PK 2 @ $6 Used to go with 3 hoping to hit a big week. Don't think it makes much difference though and money is better spent elsewhere.
Def 2 @ $7 Again, used to go with 3 hoping to hit a TD, but don't think it's worth the extra money.
So 23 players.
QB 2 @ $38
RB 7 @ $89 3 Solid players @ about $20, 2@ around $10 and 2 fliers.
WR 8 @ $87 Same as RB's, except an additional flier.
TE 2 @ $23 2 guys who I think have top 5 potential, but should both be top 12 at minimum.
PK 2 @ $6 Used to go with 3 hoping to hit a big week. Don't think it makes much difference though and money is better spent elsewhere.
Def 2 @ $7 Again, used to go with 3 hoping to hit a TD, but don't think it's worth the extra money.
So 23 players.
smarchit
Footballguy
And FWIW, Gronkowski was a $14 pick, Hernandez a $10 pick last year. The value is definitely there. It's just up to us to correctly identify it.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Tried to keep the roster maxed this year, but just couldn't do it. 25 players...
QB - 2 @ 37
RB - 7 @ 86
WR - 7 @ 79
TE - 3 @ 26
PK - 3 @ $9
TD - 3 @ $9
QB - 2 @ 37
RB - 7 @ 86
WR - 7 @ 79
TE - 3 @ 26
PK - 3 @ $9
TD - 3 @ $9
LHUCKS
Footballguy
not really, particularly when compared to past years.
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
I couldn't really find anyone I felt comfortable with either....
rustycolts
Footballguy
I heard it was after the Monday night games and don't forget there are Thursday games too.Hopefully soon. I'm already forming plans for which half dozen or so kickers I want to rotate into my lineup for Week 2 and beyond.Anyone know when they'll post the link to submit our week 2 lineups?
Warrior
Footballguy
Same here, I assumed I must have been missing a few obvious guys, but I guess not.
I've got 3 of them who I considered. I ended up with a $2 and $3 guy, the third was $2 guy too. Don't think any of them become monsters, but think they will either produce consistently enough to make sure I don't ever take a 0 or they have the kind of game where they'll put up a bunch of 1 or 2 point efforts, but then bust out a 20 pt one.
I'm new to the subscriber contest (never played it in past years for some reason), and was wondering if people thought taking a stud player with an earlier bye is an advantage? With less people being cut out of the contest in earlier weeks, would it be better to have to play with a bench player earlier on? Say, if you are torn between graham and gronk for example, jimmy has bye week 6 so its easier to make it through that week without him then it would be week 10 without gronk? Thanks.
butcher boy
Footballguy
There are a number of cheap WR flyers that I think are worth taking.
Warrior
Footballguy
Slight advantage of course. How much of an advantage is open to interpretation.
Personally, I think it only matters based on who you have backing them up. In your Graham/Gronk example, if you're rolling the dice and only taking 1 TE, then obviously the earlier bye is better. With a 2nd decent TE (say around $10), I don't think it matters much. Maybe a slight advantage to the earlier bye. As you move down the price ladder the bye will become more important. But in the end, I think it should really only be used as a tie-breaker in this situation.
I was more using it deciding between QB's. Rodgers, Brady, or Brees. I will plug in a cheap backup based on that persons bye, but it won't be a great backup (someone around the $5 mark). Was deciding between rodgers and brady, but then thought, if I make it to week 10, without rodgers may kill me. However, if I get through week 6 without brees, then I don't have to worry about that anymore.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Still locked in at 23 players, which is fewer than I'm normally comfortable with, but I'm justifying this with the fact that I'm being forced to spend more money at K and D this year. I've spent $14 on two kickers and two defenses. In past years, $14 would have gotten me three of each (or, more likely, two of each and one or more additional cheap WRs). And I'm not comfortable downgrading my skill players any further just for the sake of adding a couple of $2 and $3 players to get back up to 25-26 players. So 23 it is. (For now.)
Good point. As previously pointed out, QB's are their own animal. But also consider that ALL the other Rodgers owners (and they'll probably be a whole bunch of them) will face that same situation. This however, is one of the reasons I don't like the Stud + Super cheap qb strategy. It may work out just fine, but I'd be really nervous regardless of when their bye week falls. You're putting your whole contest life on the shoulders of a $4 or $5 QB in that week (and god-forbid any week your stud can't play).
Ya that's true. I've thought and re-thought my qb strategy into the ground. Thought about doing a Ryan/RG3 combo, but I feel like Rodgers would outscore either of them on most games so what would be the point. It seems safer to do it that way though. Maybe I'll re consider this again.
cheese
Footballguy
I think it could be different this year because of the price of the studs. There are going to be a TON of teams rostering Brees, Brady, or Rodgers so if you have one of those guys sitting, so do 25% of the entries. That means the cut line for that week is low. If your roster turns out decent at the other positions, you should be able to get yourself in the top half of teams that are without their QB1, and advance. I actually think it's riskier to roll with any "starting" QB besides those 3 because you'll rank really high the week those guys are off, but if your QB puts up a dud you don't have the same cushion of teams that also got a dud from QB to still possibly beat out. If I roll with Brady and Brady stinks, 25% of the entries probably got crap from their QB1. Sure, they will all be up there with me if Brady has a big week, but who cares, probably all Brady teams advance.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Here are the 2011 counts of entries by the week their most expensive QB was on bye and the week they were eliminated. It doesn't seem like teams that opted to choose a QB with an earlier bye week fared much better than the rest, though I don't think this tells us much at all about whether or not it's an advantage to have a QB1 with an earlier bye week. It's somewhat interesting to look at the triangles and see what happens to teams on the week their QB1 is on bye. Just for entertainment purposes:
Code:
ElimWk Bye 5 Bye 6 Bye 7 Bye 8 Bye 9 Bye 11 TOTAL2 98 142 123 198 72 119 7523 188 506 188 244 242 133 15014 95 296 208 111 266 276 12525 164 270 179 196 288 53 11506 82 386 166 158 150 162 11047 58 256 269 125 243 54 10058 79 189 105 306 100 120 8999 45 65 102 84 350 158 80410 24 204 66 111 164 134 70311 44 190 97 117 59 93 60012 34 180 37 82 110 60 50313 8 56 47 39 65 36 251Finals 6 67 42 63 47 26 251Total 925 2807 1629 1834 2156 1424 10775I think the bolded is the case most years. I see your point. And I don't disagree with it. I think it's probably the most widely used strategy. I have one of those 3 on my roster, but chose to spend a little bit extra on my backup because 1) I think he has top 12 potential, 2) I think he can actually have big games where he might actually outproduce my stud (perhaps once or twice), 3) I feel more comfortable with him out there, than with someone like Tannehill.'cheese said:
So for the cost of a couple dollars (or an extra flier RB/WR/TE or an extra K/Def) I think I'm in better shape of all the other same stud (whether it's Rodgers/Brees/Brady) teams if they should put up a bad week. And I don't think I'm losing much.
Last year was weird because almost every week Brady/Brees and Rodgers were putting up numbers that made backups pretty much irrelevant. But IIRC, I looked at past seasons and there is usually more volatility in it. They're still solid, but instead of pretty much putting up 30+ every week, they put up 20+ every week.
I guess my point is that I think it's worth it to spend a couple (a couple being the key phrase) extra dollars on a backup QB to get one you're comfortable with. I'm not saying you should pair Brady with Ryan or Manning or anything like that. But if you like Ponder or Sanchez or Locker way better than you like Tannehill, I think it's worth the money. In reality we're really talking about exchanging one player who'll mostly likely seldomly contribute to your team for another player who'll most likely seldomly contribute to your team. But with the QB, you KNOW they must contribute at least once.
I agree that it's riskier to not go with one of the top 3. But the reward is pretty great too. Last year you could have ended up with Newton and Stafford for only $1 more than what Rodgers cost. Who knows, Ryan + Luck might be that pair this year.
cheese
Footballguy
Thanks Iggy. Really surprised there wasn't more of a trend for certain bye weeks lasting longer, even if the reason is simply that QBs with that bye week ended up being good values. If I look at that chart, it's not even immediately apparent what bye week Michael Vick had, which is what I would've assumed sunk a lot of teams even when he was playing.
I wonder if that's due to the number of teams that cashed in on Cam or even Stafford as a #2 making the #1 less of a determining factor.
I wonder if that's due to the number of teams that cashed in on Cam or even Stafford as a #2 making the #1 less of a determining factor.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
The prices of the stud QBs are almost identical to what they were last year:'cheese said:
Code:
Player Price Bye Pct of EntriesAaron Rodgers $31 8 7.9%Michael Vick $30 7 4.7%Drew Brees $28 11 1.7%Tom Brady $27 7 9.8%Peyton Manning $26 11 0.2%Tony Romo $25 5 5.7%Philip Rivers $24 6 25.8%Ben Roethlisberger $23 11 7.3%Matt Ryan $21 8 7.4%Matt Schaub $20 11 7.8%Eli Manning $19 7 1.8%Josh Freeman $18 8 9.1%Matthew Stafford $18 9 39.3%Joe Flacco $17 5 3.0%Sam Bradford $17 5 19.7%Jay Cutler $16 8 3.4%Kevin Kolb $15 6 12.4%Matt Cassel $15 6 0.9%Cam Newton $14 9 1.8%Kyle Orton $14 6 6.2%Mark Sanchez $14 8 5.6%Ryan Fitzpatrick $13 7 5.9%Jason Campbell $12 8 1.9%Donovan McNabb $11 9 9.7%Matt Hasselbeck $11 6 1.9%Tarvaris Jackson $11 6 0.3%Alex Smith $10 7 0.7%Colt McCoy $10 5 22.2%David Garrard $9 9 1.1%Andy Dalton $8 7 2.3%Chad Henne $8 5 6.2%John Beck $8 5 1.5%Rex Grossman $8 5 2.6%Tim Tebow $8 6 0.8%Blaine Gabbert $7 9 0.8%Vince Young $6 7 1.4%Bruce Gradkowski $5 7 0.3%Charlie Whitehurst $4 6 0.9%Christian Ponder $4 9 0.6%
BaBastage
Footballguy
Ok, I think I'm locked at 24 players, more or less taking studs + fliers instead of lots of middle tier players like I did in prior years.
QB: 2/30 - Stud Plus Flier
RB: 5/58 - 2 in the 20 + Range, 1 Mid Tier, 2 Fliers
WR: 9/96 - 2 in the 20 + Range, 1 'Teener, 6 Sub-10' fliers
TE: 2 / 39 - 1 Stud, one 'Teener
PK: 3/12 - Nothing to see here, move along.
TD: 3/15 - Nothing to see here, move along.
Debating subbing out a low WR for a low TE. At 1.5 ppr, I've done well filling the flex position with them in the past.
I'll probably ruin this team at 11:59 pm tonight by trying to squeak one more revision in under the wire.
QB: 2/30 - Stud Plus Flier
RB: 5/58 - 2 in the 20 + Range, 1 Mid Tier, 2 Fliers
WR: 9/96 - 2 in the 20 + Range, 1 'Teener, 6 Sub-10' fliers
TE: 2 / 39 - 1 Stud, one 'Teener
PK: 3/12 - Nothing to see here, move along.
TD: 3/15 - Nothing to see here, move along.
Debating subbing out a low WR for a low TE. At 1.5 ppr, I've done well filling the flex position with them in the past.
I'll probably ruin this team at 11:59 pm tonight by trying to squeak one more revision in under the wire.
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northwoods
Footballguy
I like that in week 11, only 93 of the teams with QB's on bye in week 11 were eliminated. Interesting...
Warrior
Footballguy
Not that surprising...the total # of teams was cut way down by that point, meaning there were less elimiations that week.
While this is true, keep in mind that there were only 215 of the 1424 teams left at that point. So it's 93 of the 215 teams got eliminated.Here is the same info that Iggy posted, but converted to a % of teams that got eliminated (that were still alive) compared to the overall cut level. So for example, 151.8% in Bye 5 week 2, means that teams with the Bye 5 QB got eliminated in week 2 1.5X as much as the average team.
Code:
ElimWk Bye 5 Bye 6 Bye 7 Bye 8 Bye 9 Bye 112 151.8% 72.5% 108.2% 154.7% 47.9% 119.7%3 151.8% 126.8% 83.4% 99.6% 77.5% 68.1%4 101.2% 93.3% 107.4% 54.3% 98.3% 160.3%5 190.6% 91.6% 101.9% 96.7% 115.5% 37.4%6 119.6% 134.3% 98.8% 80.7% 64.6% 106.5%7 97.1% 105.9% 175.5% 67.3% 106.6% 39.6%8 146.9% 88.7% 94.4% 170.2% 49.9% 85.4%9 108.2% 33.0% 101.0% 65.6% 170.4% 120.6%10 67.9% 96.1% 75.0% 88.5% 121.0% 126.1%11 127.9% 103.1% 116.4% 104.0% 56.2% 115.7%12 141.5% 118.7% 58.7% 89.0% 99.0% 98.3%13 114.3% 91.1% 105.6% 76.5% 116.1% 116.1%Finals Total 925 2807 1629 1834 2156 1424 
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I've long been a proponent of larger rosters. But given the relatively low prices on studs this year, every iteration I've submitted is around 24 players.'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
northwoods
Footballguy
Not really commenting on the actual #, just that more teams with QB byes on Week 6, 7 & 8 were eliminated in week 11 than teams with Qb's actually on bye in week 11...edited to add that on a % basis it makes more sense.
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Right, but relatively speaking, teams with their QB1 on bye that week didn't appear to do much worse than all the other teams that week. The one week 11 outlier appears to be the teams with a week 9 bye QB - they survived week 11 at a rate far above the rest, and that's probably because many of them were Stafford owners, and Stafford scored 44 points in week 11.
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Insoxicated
Fairly sure this is it...
For the purposes of this:
Stud = $20+ / Mid Pack Guy = $10-19 / Flyer = $9 or less
QB (2): Stud / Middle Pack Guy
RB (7): 2 Studs / 1 Mid Pack / 4 Flyers
WR (7): 2 Studs / 3 Mid Pack / 2 Flyers
TE (2): 2 Mid Pack
PK (3): Scraps
TE (2): Scraps
For the purposes of this:
Stud = $20+ / Mid Pack Guy = $10-19 / Flyer = $9 or less
QB (2): Stud / Middle Pack Guy
RB (7): 2 Studs / 1 Mid Pack / 4 Flyers
WR (7): 2 Studs / 3 Mid Pack / 2 Flyers
TE (2): 2 Mid Pack
PK (3): Scraps
TE (2): Scraps
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Jed
Footballguy
IMO, but 2 mid pack TE's won't cut it.Fairly sure this is it... For the purposes of this:Stud = $20+ / Mid Pack Guy = $10-19 / Flyer = $9 or lessQB (2): Stud / Middle Pack Guy RB (7): 2 Studs / 1 Mid Pack / 4 FlyersWR (7): 2 Studs / 3 Mid Pack / 2 FlyersTE (2): 2 Mid PackPK (3): ScrapsTE (2): Scraps
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Depends if you pick the right ones. Two mid packs last year (Graham and Gronk) could have practically carried you to the final 250.IMO, but 2 mid pack TE's won't cut it.Fairly sure this is it... For the purposes of this:Stud = $20+ / Mid Pack Guy = $10-19 / Flyer = $9 or lessQB (2): Stud / Middle Pack Guy RB (7): 2 Studs / 1 Mid Pack / 4 FlyersWR (7): 2 Studs / 3 Mid Pack / 2 FlyersTE (2): 2 Mid PackPK (3): ScrapsTE (2): Scraps
I've changed my roster 20 times today. I can't decide if I want 2 d and kickers or 3. And I am having huge issues with WR. I have 86-92 available depending what I do with d and kicker and ive tried the stud theory and just a bunch of mid cost guys and none of it makes me extrememly happy. Not sure what to do
Gunslinger58
Footballguy
I finally have my roster set. It took numerious reworks to come up with my final draft. Week 7 will be the testiest as I have 5 on bye that week. My roster looks like this:
2 QBs @ $28
7 RBs @ $95
7 WRs @ $85
2 TEs @ $27
2 PKs @ $ 6
2 Ds @ $ 7
2 QBs @ $28
7 RBs @ $95
7 WRs @ $85
2 TEs @ $27
2 PKs @ $ 6
2 Ds @ $ 7
apalmer
Footballguy
17-kicker shtick notwithstanding, don't underestimate the value of ks and ds. Last year, with 3 of each, I averaged over 22 ppw from the combination of the two positions. Every week during the first 12 weeks one of the 6 got to double figures; 4 times it was my "worst" kicker and 3 times it was my "worst" defense, but all 6 did it at least once, There were at least 2 times during the first 12 weeks that I would have been eliminated without that 3rd spot's score. The one time they didn't do it was Week 13 when I only got 5 pts. from each position--and I got eliminated by 7 1/7 pts. that week.
northwoods
Footballguy
I think it's highly unlikely that at the end of the season we'll find that any of this years $10-$15 TE's will rival what Hernandez, Gronk & Graham put up last year and I built my team accordingly...In this case I think you have to pay for points.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Gates down?
Disagree with this. I think people are overvaluing how important TE are in this format. I know they get 1.5 ppr, but imo, if you decide to pass on Gronk/Graham, you're probably better off grabbing 2 mid pack ones as opposed to a different stud.IMO, but 2 mid pack TE's won't cut it.Fairly sure this is it... For the purposes of this:Stud = $20+ / Mid Pack Guy = $10-19 / Flyer = $9 or lessQB (2): Stud / Middle Pack Guy RB (7): 2 Studs / 1 Mid Pack / 4 FlyersWR (7): 2 Studs / 3 Mid Pack / 2 FlyersTE (2): 2 Mid PackPK (3): ScrapsTE (2): Scraps
northwoods
Footballguy
$10-$15 TE's, Gates doesn't qualify. Nice try...
Jed
Footballguy
I understand, I just don't see any possible Graham/Gronks out there in the mid range pricing (except maybe Cook).Depends if you pick the right ones. Two mid packs last year (Graham and Gronk) could have practically carried you to the final 250.IMO, but 2 mid pack TE's won't cut it.Fairly sure this is it... For the purposes of this:Stud = $20+ / Mid Pack Guy = $10-19 / Flyer = $9 or lessQB (2): Stud / Middle Pack Guy RB (7): 2 Studs / 1 Mid Pack / 4 FlyersWR (7): 2 Studs / 3 Mid Pack / 2 FlyersTE (2): 2 Mid PackPK (3): ScrapsTE (2): Scraps
BuffaloWings
Footballguy
Well, spent all $250 and have 25 players:
2 QB - $32 - 1 stud and 1 OH MY GOD, WHAT AM I DOING?
6 RB - $88 - 2 studs RB1, 1 tier two RB1, 1 very undervalued back, 1 who could get some carries, 1 flier
7 WR - $81 - 3 WR1 "veteran" receivers, 3 WR2 receivers and 1 rookie WR1
3 TE - $33 - 1 top-3 stud, 2 fliers
3 K - $9 - whatever
2 D - $7 - whatever
2 QB - $32 - 1 stud and 1 OH MY GOD, WHAT AM I DOING?
6 RB - $88 - 2 studs RB1, 1 tier two RB1, 1 very undervalued back, 1 who could get some carries, 1 flier
7 WR - $81 - 3 WR1 "veteran" receivers, 3 WR2 receivers and 1 rookie WR1
3 TE - $33 - 1 top-3 stud, 2 fliers
3 K - $9 - whatever
2 D - $7 - whatever
Jed
Footballguy
Funny, I think they are undervalued being that we've never seen TE's approach these kinds of numbers.Disagree with this. I think people are overvaluing how important TE are in this format. I know they get 1.5 ppr, but imo, if you decide to pass on Gronk/Graham, you're probably better off grabbing 2 mid pack ones as opposed to a different stud.IMO, but 2 mid pack TE's won't cut it.Fairly sure this is it... For the purposes of this:Stud = $20+ / Mid Pack Guy = $10-19 / Flyer = $9 or lessQB (2): Stud / Middle Pack Guy RB (7): 2 Studs / 1 Mid Pack / 4 FlyersWR (7): 2 Studs / 3 Mid Pack / 2 FlyersTE (2): 2 Mid PackPK (3): ScrapsTE (2): Scraps
