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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (2 Viewers)

One guy I am really shocked about the low ownership on is Davone Bess.
Not enough upside...to win you need guys that can throw up points in bundles...not guys that consistently get you 12 points.
Actually you need a combination of both. Sure, Bess (or Amendola) is not going to win you the contest in the playoff weeks. But guys like him can be very instrumental in making sure you make the cuts when you have guys on bye or your studs have an off week.
The argument for Bess is even though Miami could be terrible this year, someone has to catch the football there. Seems like defenses will gang up to stop Bush and Thomas, so Bess should get a decent amount of targets.
i didnt take either but i think legadu nenee at $3 is the better buy based on that
I couldn't work Bess in with his bye week. He's also probably not going to score many TDs even if they throw it to him a lot.
 
My initial thought is that for a team to be unique compared to another (or a group) it must not have someone that is common. If that player is common for the top 250 teams, it probably means he's a "stud" for the year. So if that player, whose played well that whole season continues to play well in the final 3 weeks, the unique team is behind the 8 ball. So they'd need their unique player to hit to keep up. Of course, if the common player falters, then the unique team has an advantage, but it works both ways, if the unique player falters, then the unique team is at a disadvantage.

I guess, what I'm saying is that I don't think uniqueness is that critical because it can work for you or against you. It comes down to once again, having the right players.
It does come down to having the right players. But when it comes to the final 250, everyone has chosen the right players. That is when uniqueness comes into play. It really doesn't work both ways, because if the common player does well, he's doing it for a ton of teams, thus making him irrelevant. He'll never be the difference in advancing. Whereas if the unique player does well, it is a big advantage. Everyone is going to have Ced Benson, he's never going to be the reason someone wins the big money.
Of course it works both ways. If the common player does well, it's certainly not irrelevant for the "unique" teams that don't have him. Then they get buried at the bottom of the standings. If everyone but you has Cedric Benson and he goes off for 50 points in week 16, you're not going to be patting yourself on the back for being unique. Uniqueness is so vastly overrated in this contest. It's been discussed many times before. You want the players who score the most points. It doesn't matter how many other people own those players, because every single entry is unique enough to win.

If you have a team that's really unique and scores the most points, you win.

If you have a team that's really unique and doesn't score the most points, you don't win.

If you have a team that's not at all unique and scores the most points, you win.

If you have a team that's not at all unique and doesn't score the most points, you don't win.

Notice what makes the difference between winning and not winning? It's not uniqueness.

 
Of course it works both ways. If the common player does well, it's certainly not irrelevant for the "unique" teams that don't have him. Then they get buried at the bottom of the standings. If everyone but you has Cedric Benson and he goes off for 50 points in week 16, you're not going to be patting yourself on the back for being unique.

Uniqueness is so vastly overrated in this contest. It's been discussed many times before. You want the players who score the most points. It doesn't matter how many other people own those players, because every single entry is unique enough to win.

If you have a team that's really unique and scores the most points, you win.

If you have a team that's really unique and doesn't score the most points, you don't win.

If you have a team that's not at all unique and scores the most points, you win.

If you have a team that's not at all unique and doesn't score the most points, you don't win.

Notice what makes the difference between winning and not winning? It's not uniqueness.
You're missing the point.We understand that "the most points wins."

The question is, how do you best increase your chances of scoring the most points...this is where uniqueness comes in.

 
Of course it works both ways. If the common player does well, it's certainly not irrelevant for the "unique" teams that don't have him. Then they get buried at the bottom of the standings. If everyone but you has Cedric Benson and he goes off for 50 points in week 16, you're not going to be patting yourself on the back for being unique.

Uniqueness is so vastly overrated in this contest. It's been discussed many times before. You want the players who score the most points. It doesn't matter how many other people own those players, because every single entry is unique enough to win.

If you have a team that's really unique and scores the most points, you win.

If you have a team that's really unique and doesn't score the most points, you don't win.

If you have a team that's not at all unique and scores the most points, you win.

If you have a team that's not at all unique and doesn't score the most points, you don't win.

Notice what makes the difference between winning and not winning? It's not uniqueness.
You're missing the point.We understand that "the most points wins."

The question is, how do you best increase your chances of scoring the most points...this is where uniqueness comes in.
When you're done with your next-level analysis of the cut scores, I encourage you to demonstrate that uniqueness increases your chances of scoring the most points.
 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
I encourage you to demonstrate that uniqueness increases your chances of scoring the most points.
It has already been explained in very simple terms. I'm not sure what else we can do to help you understand.
 
'massraider said:
'Modog814 said:
My initial thought is that for a team to be unique compared to another (or a group) it must not have someone that is common. If that player is common for the top 250 teams, it probably means he's a "stud" for the year. So if that player, whose played well that whole season continues to play well in the final 3 weeks, the unique team is behind the 8 ball. So they'd need their unique player to hit to keep up. Of course, if the common player falters, then the unique team has an advantage, but it works both ways, if the unique player falters, then the unique team is at a disadvantage. I guess, what I'm saying is that I don't think uniqueness is that critical because it can work for you or against you. It comes down to once again, having the right players.
It does come down to having the right players. But when it comes to the final 250, everyone has chosen the right players. That is when uniqueness comes into play. It really doesn't work both ways, because if the common player does well, he's doing it for a ton of teams, thus making him irrelevant. He'll never be the difference in advancing. Whereas if the unique player does well, it is a big advantage. Everyone is going to have Ced Benson, he's never going to be the reason someone wins the big money.
If everyone owns Benson except you, and he blows up, you're screwed. He is the difference in advancing for those that don't have him (he's the highest-owned player at 51.8%, so chances are quite a few would be eliminated) -- witness Arian Foster a couple of years ago. Just because you spend $3 on Benson doesn't exclude you from owning other lesser-owned players. I can see that a unique player exploding is a big advantage in the playoffs, but any other player exploding in the playoffs would be a big advantage (second most-owned is Ryan at 34.8%, but most are much less), and if the rest of your team is strong, you're in great shape. Every roster is unique (unless copied from those that post here before the contest closes), and the odds of finding that one player that explodes in the playoffs that nobody else owns are extremely remote if they exist at all.I still think you're better off focusing on trying to put together the highest-scoring team, regardless of uniqueness. Having popular players who score a lot can help quite a bit in surviving cuts (e.g., my QB A example), and your PK/D are likely to give you enough uniqueness for the playoffs anyway.
 
Matt Ryan $19 0.00 bye

Joe Flacco $11 0.00 bye

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Darren McFadden $26 0.00 bye

Ahmad Bradshaw $21 0.00 bye

Fred Jackson $21 0.00 bye

Jacquizz Rodgers $10 0.00 bye

Rashad Jennings $9 0.00 bye

Kendall Hunter $6 0.00 bye

Evan Royster $3 0.00 bye

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Jordy Nelson $20 0.00 bye

Antonio Brown $17 0.00 bye

Eric Decker $17 0.00 bye

Darrius Heyward-Bey $16 0.00 bye

Reggie Wayne $15 0.00 bye

Nate Washington $12 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brandon Pettigrew $15 0.00 bye

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Justin Medlock $3 0.00 bye

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San Francisco 49ers $6 0.00 bye

Kansas City Chiefs $3 0.00

 
QB (2): I spent relatively heavy here for Brees and Flacco, and I went back and forth between Newton + Flacco + better D and Brees + Flacco like a million times. No matter which one I settled on I knew I would feel like the other option was better...wish I had done Newton and a better defense - I think I will consistently have top QB scoring here.

RB (6): Only 38 teams have both Bush and Brown, which surprised me in a PPR. These two guys are going to be huge workhorses, and Hillis in there as well? I like it. Love Dwyer and Royster as well, and I like Powell's chances to blow up a week or two with a full PPR. Note: I dropped Benson for an extra kicker, and I am not at all sure what I was thinking. Don't think it was smart at all. I think it won't make or break my team, but it was dumb nonetheless.

WR (7): Man do I love my top 3 guys here, especially at their prices. I see PPR monsters in Harvin, Amendola, and Bess. Blackmon and Young are both boom/bust picks, and Smith and Colston are both guys with very high floors who can boom. I figured FBGs always hates Colston, so having a guy I project as a top 10 wideout at a bargain AND as a relatively unique pick? No brainer to me. Start 3, I think I'll consistently be among the best WR scorers.

TE (3): Hernandez and Gates are studs - I spent a lot here. I see people going with Graham and a flier, and all I can think is that I'm gonna outscore them at flex each week. I would not be surprised in the least if Gates finished #1 overall at the position (There is nobody else to throw to and Rivers is a beast) and Hernandez was right there with Gronk pre-injury, IMO. I expect 20+ point scores from each of these guys when they play. Beasts. Also, Allen is gonna be the best receiving TE on the Colts. For $2, I'll hope he scores on the other guys' byes.

PK/Def: Whatever. Should have done Benson over a third kicker, but I'm an idiot.

Drew Brees $29 0.00 bye Joe Flacco $11 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Reggie Bush $20 0.00 bye Donald Brown $19 0.00 bye Peyton Hillis $14 0.00 bye Bilal Powell $4 0.00 bye Jonathan Dwyer $4 0.00 bye Evan Royster $3 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Percy Harvin $20 0.00 bye Marques Colston $19 0.00 bye Torrey Smith $16 0.00 bye Titus Young $10 0.00 bye Justin Blackmon $7 0.00 bye Davone Bess $6 0.00 bye Danny Amendola $6 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Aaron Hernandez $23 0.00 bye Antonio Gates $20 0.00 bye Dwayne Allen $2 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Robbie Gould $3 0.00 bye Matt Prater $3 0.00 bye Rian Lindell $3 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Buffalo Bills $5 0.00 bye Washington Redskins $3 0.00
Anyhow...that's my rooster! ;)

 
Uniqueness is a bad thing. I own Vick and most everyone has Ryan. Vick can outscore Ryan most weeks, but the weeks Ryan puts up huge numbers I'm starting in a big hole.

 
Matt Ryan $19 0.00 bye Joe Flacco $11 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Darren McFadden $26 0.00 bye Ahmad Bradshaw $21 0.00 bye Fred Jackson $21 0.00 bye Jacquizz Rodgers $10 0.00 bye Rashad Jennings $9 0.00 bye Kendall Hunter $6 0.00 bye Evan Royster $3 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jordy Nelson $20 0.00 bye Antonio Brown $17 0.00 bye Eric Decker $17 0.00 bye Darrius Heyward-Bey $16 0.00 bye Reggie Wayne $15 0.00 bye Nate Washington $12 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Brandon Pettigrew $15 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Justin Medlock $3 0.00 bye ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------San Francisco 49ers $6 0.00 bye Kansas City Chiefs $3 0.00
This is joke correct???
 
So, why is this locked when it says the deadline on the subscriber contest page is Wednesday, Sept 7th at 11:59PM EST?? Now obviously its the 5th, but in no way would this date make you think it would be closed already. Not to mention no game has been played yet

Kind of angry

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
I encourage you to demonstrate that uniqueness increases your chances of scoring the most points.
It has already been explained in very simple terms. I'm not sure what else we can do to help you understand.
Try explaining it in more complicated terms.
I'm with you. Uniqueness won't help you win the contest, it only helps you survive the cut week to week.
 
Michael Vick $22 0.00 bye

Jay Cutler $17 0.00 bye

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Darren McFadden $26 0.00 bye

Willis McGahee $16 0.00 bye

Bilal Powell $4 0.00 bye

Rashard Mendenhall $4 0.00 bye

Jonathan Dwyer $4 0.00 bye

Cedric Benson $3 0.00 bye

Evan Royster $3 0.00 bye

Ronnie Brown $2 0.00 bye

Taiwan Jones $2 0.00 bye

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Calvin Johnson $29 0.00 bye

Brandon Marshall $22 0.00 bye

Darrius Heyward-Bey $16 0.00 bye

Nate Washington $12 0.00 bye

Justin Blackmon $7 0.00 bye

Davone Bess $6 0.00 bye

Kendall Wright $6 0.00 bye

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Owen Daniels $11 0.00 bye

Greg Olsen $11 0.00 bye

Kellen Davis $4 0.00 bye

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David Akers $6 0.00 bye

Matt Prater $3 0.00 bye

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New England Patriots $5 0.00 bye

Houston Texans $5 0.00 bye

New York Jets $4 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 
So, why is this locked when it says the deadline on the subscriber contest page is Wednesday, Sept 7th at 11:59PM EST?? Now obviously its the 5th, but in no way would this date make you think it would be closed already. Not to mention no game has been played yetKind of angry
Me too. I thought it was open until at least tonight. Meh. It's my fault for procrastinating. I should have put SOMETHING in long before the deadline.
 
Where are people seeing September 7? The contest rules page says the following:

Entry

The deadline to submit/edit your contest entry is 11:59pm (ET) Tuesday, September 4th.

ETA: Why would it still be open after the first NFL game was played?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
So, why is this locked when it says the deadline on the subscriber contest page is Wednesday, Sept 7th at 11:59PM EST?? Now obviously its the 5th, but in no way would this date make you think it would be closed already. Not to mention no game has been played yetKind of angry
It also says 2011 on that page several times. You couldn't enter the contest via that page either, because it was closed last year.
 
'massraider said:
'Modog814 said:
My initial thought is that for a team to be unique compared to another (or a group) it must not have someone that is common. If that player is common for the top 250 teams, it probably means he's a "stud" for the year. So if that player, whose played well that whole season continues to play well in the final 3 weeks, the unique team is behind the 8 ball. So they'd need their unique player to hit to keep up. Of course, if the common player falters, then the unique team has an advantage, but it works both ways, if the unique player falters, then the unique team is at a disadvantage. I guess, what I'm saying is that I don't think uniqueness is that critical because it can work for you or against you. It comes down to once again, having the right players.
It does come down to having the right players. But when it comes to the final 250, everyone has chosen the right players. That is when uniqueness comes into play. It really doesn't work both ways, because if the common player does well, he's doing it for a ton of teams, thus making him irrelevant. He'll never be the difference in advancing. Whereas if the unique player does well, it is a big advantage. Everyone is going to have Ced Benson, he's never going to be the reason someone wins the big money.
Disagree. If the common player does well, you need him on your team unless your unique player does equally well. He certainly could be the difference in advancing if I don't have him. Take your benson comment, if 249 of the 250 have him and he blows up it may look like it doesn't matter much, but it does to that one team who was unique ( via not having him)
 
'joffer said:
looks like i finally have a relatively unique team, which is gooddon't understand the low own % on Sproles, he was the first one i grabbed and never had him out of any iteration
For me, I have Brees and Graham. Didn't want 3 studs on the same bye.
 
'LHUCKS said:
The question is, how do you best increase your chances of scoring the most points...this is where uniqueness comes in.
When Week 16 rolls around it is usually just one or two players that will make the difference, not an entirely unique roster. If there are highly-owned players that are blowing up during any given week, you'll need them on your roster too or else the wave of sameness will drown you.Have you played this contest before? If so, how did you finish?This is my third year. I made the Top 50 in both my first two years:2010 - finished 25th2011 - finished 39thAnd the other people in here that you are arguing with have done very well in past years too, so they know what they are talking about.
 
Here is my team after many many changes.Made it to 142 last year hope to improve on that this year

Aaron Rodgers $31 bye 10

Ryan Tannehill $4 bye 7

Arian Foster $34 bye 8

Chris Johnson $27 bye 11

Jacquizz Rodgers $10 bye 7

David Wilson $9 bye 11

Dexter McCluster $3 bye 7

Cedric Benson $3 bye 10

Evan Royster $3 bye 10

Calvin Johnson $27 bye 5

Anquan Boldin $12 bye 8

Titus Young $10 bye 5

Davone Bess $6 bye 7

Alshon Jeffery $6 bye 6

Mario Manningham $4 bye 9

Devery Henderson $4 bye 6

Arrelious Benn $3 bye 5

Cecil Shorts $3 bye 6

Louis Murphy $2 bye 6

Tony Gonzales $13 bye 7

Greg Olsen $11 bye 6

Kellen Davis $4 bye 6

Dan Carpenter $3 bye 7

Matt Prater $3 bye 7

Conner Barth $3 bye 5

Falcons $4 bye 7

Jags $3 bye 6

Dolphins $3 bye 7

 
'LHUCKS said:
The question is, how do you best increase your chances of scoring the most points...this is where uniqueness comes in.
When Week 16 rolls around it is usually just one or two players that will make the difference, not an entirely unique roster. If there are highly-owned players that are blowing up during any given week, you'll need them on your roster too or else the wave of sameness will drown you.Have you played this contest before? If so, how did you finish?This is my third year. I made the Top 50 in both my first two years:2010 - finished 25th2011 - finished 39thAnd the other people in here that you are arguing with have done very well in past years too, so they know what they are talking about.
Link to your squad this year?
 
Made it all the way to Week 11 in my first stab at the Subscriber Contest last season.

Wasn't mindful of bye weeks and had a Steeler top-heavy tandem in Wallace/Brown that did me in with their late season bye.

Tried to be smarter this time around but for some reason I suspect I won't last as long.

Matt Ryan $19

Josh Freeman $16

Arian Foster $34

Peyton Hillis $14

Kendall Hunter $6

Cedric Benson $3

Evan Royster $3

Taiwan Jones $2

Julio Jones $23

Antonio Brown $17

Pierre Garcon $14

Titus Young $10

Justin Blackmon $7

Kendall Wright $6

Steve Smith {STL} $5

James Jones $3

Aaron Hernandez $23

Brent Celek $12

Greg Olsen $11

Jason Hanson $4

Robbie Gould $3

Matt Prater $3

Buffalo Bills $5

Seattle Seahawks $4

Jacksonville Jaguars $3

 
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Matt Ryan

Jake Locker

This seem like a pretty common paring, but good value for the price.

Fred Jackson

Doug Martin

Marshawn Lynch

Stevan Ridley

Kevin Smith

Cedric Benson

Evan Royster

Nice to have 7 starters her, if you believe Shannahan. Still, I like the depth here for the price.

Brandon Marshall

Percy Harvin

Torry Smith

Kenny Britt

Justin Blackmon

Danny Amendola

Harry Douglas

I like the Cutler/Marshall re-connection here. I hope others stayed away Britt due to his suspension. Blackmon and Amendola represent great value as others have pointed out.

Brandon Pettigrew

Brent Celek

With defenses looking to stop Megatron, Pettigrew should see a lot of looks from Stafford. I see him as a possible top 5 TE.

Matt Prater

Mike Nugent

Looking for a number of distance field goal opportunities from Prater in Denver.

Seattle Seahawks

New Orleans Saints

The best two defenses for the price.

 
Matt Ryan $19 Joe Flacco $11 Darren McFadden $26 Steven Jackson $22 Doug Martin $21 David Wilson $9 Bilal Powell $4 Dexter McCluster $3 Cedric Benson $3 Antonio Brown $17 Eric Decker $17 Reggie Wayne $15 Pierre Garcon $14 Justin Blackmon $7 Steve Smith $5 Jonathan Baldwin $4 Fred Davis $14 Jermaine Gresham $13 Greg Olsen $11 Robbie Gould $3 Matt Prater $3 Greg Zuerlein $3 Cincinnati Bengals $3 New Orleans Saints $3 24 players @ $250
The flex position can only be taken from the RB/WR/TE positions so I concentrated most of my money there. Didn't get completely outscored by teams with a stud QB though so I wanted to get 2 solid QBs who should put up decent if not stud numbers each week. Chance for either one to put up a great week on any given week.I saw my flex position coming from either the RB or TE position most weeks with an occasional WR being used. As a result went with 3 second tier RB1s. With McFadden an injury risk the 3rd RB should help lessen the risk. Benson at $3 was too good to pass up. McCluster won't win me the contest but he should put up steady numbers in PPR to help on the bye weeks. Two of my top RBs have week 5 byes so a bit of a risk but hoping this is where McCluster or Benson step in. Also my only 2 players on bye that week.Went with a handful of mid-priced WRs that could get me steady if not stud-like numbers. Probably the weakest squad of my team. Will need one or two of these to out perform this year. Also have two WRs with a bye week 4. Hoping that it is early enough that it won't hurt me. Also the only 2 players with a bye that week for me.Saw my flex coming from either the RB position or here so wanted to get 3 guys that could score big any given week. Toyed with Gates and a few cheaper TEs but decided to spread out the money to lessen therisk.Ks - wanted to get 3 guys that could score decent any given week. With the bonus for distance I liked Prater and took a chance on Zuerlein. Gould should be consistent.Defenses seem to be a crap shoot so wanted to spend the minimum and have them both available during my worst bye weeks.Does this look like a winner or what? :shrug:I never seem to do very well in this contest with early exits.
 
Calvin, I'd like to introduce you to Mr. Madden. Do you mind if we take a snap shot for some promotional materials? Great, welcome to show biz, now break a leg...

 
'Ahmad Rashad said:
Question for those who emphasize uniqueness in this contest:If I'm completely unique with 3 of the 6 most-owned PK's and 2 of the 6 most-owned D's, why do I need to worry about uniqueness for the rest of my roster?It seems like it would be pretty darn hard to come up with a roster that's not unique, so I don't get why we need to strive for uniqueness in putting together rosters. I would think it's much more important to score higher, but maybe I'm missing something... :shrug:
I'll make it simple. Say you have a totally random coin-flip contest between you and 9 other people. You all choose heads or tails and whoever chooses wrong gets eliminated. The winners flip again and start the process over. When the coin is in the air, you disclose which side of the coin you chose. Which of these would you rather have be the case?...Scenario 1:You - HeadsOther guys - Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, TailsScenario 2: You - HeadsOther guys - Tails, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads?Of course, you'd rather be the one guy whose choice was unique. Under scenario 1, you have a 50% shot at winning the contest on the first flip and 50% chance to lose. Under scenario 2, you have a 50% chance of losing on the first flip, but if you win the coin toss, you still only have a 11% chance to win the contest.Not a perfect example, but you should get the idea by now. Assuming that all else is equal (and you think your players are as good as everyone else thinks their players are), uniqueness is very very good.With that said, all that really matters is that your players are better than everyone else's players. But when the probability of you winning this contest is very very small, you want to have players that the other contestants don't have.
 
Year Two

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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Joe Flacco $11 0.00 bye

Andrew Luck $11 0.00 bye

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Doug Martin $21 0.00 bye

Willis McGahee $16 0.00 bye

Jonathan Dwyer $4 0.00 bye

Cedric Benson $3 0.00 bye

Evan Royster $3 0.00 bye

Ronnie Brown $2 0.00 bye

Taiwan Jones $2 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Julio Jones $23 0.00 bye

A.J. Green $22 0.00 bye

Antonio Brown $17 0.00 bye

Eric Decker $17 0.00 bye

Titus Young $10 0.00 bye

Justin Blackmon $7 0.00 bye

Steve Smith $5 0.00 bye

Jonathan Baldwin $4 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jimmy Graham $29 0.00 bye

Kyle Rudolph $11 0.00 bye

Lance Kendricks $9 0.00 bye

Dwayne Allen $2 0.00 bye

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Matt Prater $3 0.00 bye

Greg Zuerlein $3 0.00 bye

Mike Nugent $3 0.00 bye

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Buffalo Bills $5 0.00 bye

Seattle Seahawks $4 0.00 bye

Cincinnati Bengals $3 0.00 bye

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TOTAL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CUTOFF 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 
'Ahmad Rashad said:
Question for those who emphasize uniqueness in this contest:If I'm completely unique with 3 of the 6 most-owned PK's and 2 of the 6 most-owned D's, why do I need to worry about uniqueness for the rest of my roster?It seems like it would be pretty darn hard to come up with a roster that's not unique, so I don't get why we need to strive for uniqueness in putting together rosters. I would think it's much more important to score higher, but maybe I'm missing something... :shrug:
I'll make it simple. Say you have a totally random coin-flip contest between you and 9 other people. You all choose heads or tails and whoever chooses wrong gets eliminated. The winners flip again and start the process over. When the coin is in the air, you disclose which side of the coin you chose. Which of these would you rather have be the case?...Scenario 1:You - HeadsOther guys - Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, TailsScenario 2: You - HeadsOther guys - Tails, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads?Of course, you'd rather be the one guy whose choice was unique. Under scenario 1, you have a 50% shot at winning the contest on the first flip and 50% chance to lose. Under scenario 2, you have a 50% chance of losing on the first flip, but if you win the coin toss, you still only have a 11% chance to win the contest.Not a perfect example, but you should get the idea by now. Assuming that all else is equal (and you think your players are as good as everyone else thinks their players are), uniqueness is very very good.With that said, all that really matters is that your players are better than everyone else's players. But when the probability of you winning this contest is very very small, you want to have players that the other contestants don't have.
well put
 
'Ahmad Rashad said:
Question for those who emphasize uniqueness in this contest:If I'm completely unique with 3 of the 6 most-owned PK's and 2 of the 6 most-owned D's, why do I need to worry about uniqueness for the rest of my roster?It seems like it would be pretty darn hard to come up with a roster that's not unique, so I don't get why we need to strive for uniqueness in putting together rosters. I would think it's much more important to score higher, but maybe I'm missing something... :shrug:
I'll make it simple. Say you have a totally random coin-flip contest between you and 9 other people. You all choose heads or tails and whoever chooses wrong gets eliminated. The winners flip again and start the process over. When the coin is in the air, you disclose which side of the coin you chose. Which of these would you rather have be the case?...Scenario 1:You - HeadsOther guys - Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, TailsScenario 2: You - HeadsOther guys - Tails, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads?Of course, you'd rather be the one guy whose choice was unique. Under scenario 1, you have a 50% shot at winning the contest on the first flip and 50% chance to lose. Under scenario 2, you have a 50% chance of losing on the first flip, but if you win the coin toss, you still only have a 11% chance to win the contest.Not a perfect example, but you should get the idea by now. Assuming that all else is equal (and you think your players are as good as everyone else thinks their players are), uniqueness is very very good.With that said, all that really matters is that your players are better than everyone else's players. But when the probability of you winning this contest is very very small, you want to have players that the other contestants don't have.
well put
No it isn't.The contest we're in doesn't eliminate everyone who guesses wrong. So you don't have a 50% chance to lose right away in the 2nd scenario - only the bottom x% of people are out, so if you tie with all the other heads guys, you'll all still be in. You want to basically have the exact same roster as everyone else, and then have a different single player who outperforms all other unique players in the playoff weeks. That would be the "perfect" scenario.
 
I think I cornered the market on all of the good Matt's in the contest list.

Code:
Matt Ryan             $19      0.00                                       bye                                                                Matt Schaub           $13      0.00                                              bye                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Matt Forte            $27      0.00                                bye                                                                       Darren McFadden       $26      0.00                         bye                                                                              Roy Helu              $17      0.00                                                            bye                                           David Wilson           $9      0.00                                                                   bye                                    Robert Turbin          $6      0.00                                                                   bye                                    Cedric Benson          $3      0.00                                                            bye                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Calvin Johnson        $29      0.00                         bye                                                                              Steve Johnson         $18      0.00                                              bye                                                         Eric Decker           $17      0.00                                       bye                                                                Michael Crabtree      $11      0.00                                                     bye                                                  Danny Amendola         $6      0.00                                                     bye                                                  Steve Smith            $5      0.00                                                     bye                                                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Fred Davis            $14      0.00                                                            bye                                           Marcedes Lewis         $7      0.00                                bye                                                                       Kellen Davis           $4      0.00                                bye                                                                       ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Matt Bryant            $4      0.00                                       bye                                                                Randy Bullock          $4      0.00                                              bye                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------San Francisco 49ers    $6      0.00                                                     bye                                                  Buffalo Bills          $5      0.00                                              bye
 
I threw this team together in about a minute at 6:00am yesterday as I forgot about it. Looking back my RB's will likely be the death of me!

Matthew Stafford $26 0.00

Jake Locker $9 0.00

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Darren Sproles $23 0.00

Willis McGahee $16 0.00

Ben Tate $12 0.00

David Wilson $9 0.00

Rashard Mendenhall $4 0.00

Cedric Benson $3 0.00

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Percy Harvin $20 0.00

Torrey Smith $16 0.00

Titus Young $10 0.00

Randall Cobb $9 0.00

Santana Moss $8 0.00

Michael Floyd $6 0.00

Kendall Wright $6 0.00

Donnie Avery $5 0.00

Donald Jones $4 0.00

Louis Murphy $2 0.00

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Jimmy Graham $29 0.00

Jermaine Gresham $13 0.00

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Matt Prater $3 0.00

Lawrence Tynes $3 0.00

Rob Bironas $3 0.00

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New York Jets $4 0.00

Denver Broncos $4 0.00

Cincinnati Bengals $3 0.00

 
Got owned in week 5 or 6 last year, first time in contest. Hoping I learned a bit with this squad, time and luck will tell.

QB Matthew Stafford DET/5 $26

QB Andrew Luck IND/4 $11

QB Jake Locker TEN/11 $9

QB Tim Tebow NYJ/9 $6

RB Darren Sproles NO/6 $23

RB Stevan Ridley NE/9 $16

RB Robert Turbin SEA/11 $6

RB Bernard Scott CIN/8 $4

RB Mike Tolbert CAR/6 $4

RB Lamar Miller MIA/7 $3

RB Evan Royster WAS/10 $3

RB Taiwan Jones OAK/5 $2

WR Calvin Johnson DET/5 $29

WR Julio Jones ATL/7 $23

WR Randall Cobb GB/10 $9

WR Jerome Simpson MIN/11 $7

WR Leonard Hankerson WAS/10 $4

WR Andre Roberts ARI/10 $3

WR Eddie Royal SD/7 $2

WR Ryan Broyles DET/5 $2

TE Jimmy Graham NO/6 $29

TE Evan Moore SEA/11 $3

TE Dwayne Allen IND/4 $2

TE Tony Scheffler DET/5 $4.00

PK Jason Hanson DET/5 $4

PK Dan Carpenter MIA/7 $3

PK Matt Prater DEN/7 $3

TD Seattle Seahawks SEA/11 $4

TD Cincinnati Bengals CIN/8 $3

TD Kansas City Chiefs KC/7 $3

 
The contest we're in doesn't eliminate everyone who guesses wrong.
Nobody stated that it did.
You want to basically have the exact same roster as everyone else, and then have a different single player who outperforms all other unique players in the playoff weeks. That would be the "perfect" scenario.
He wasn't trying to demonstrate the perfect scenario. He used a very simple example to demonstrate the advantage of uniqueness.
 
Preface:

I’m generally a big roster guy, 27-29 players, looking for some safety and paying some attention to Byes. This year I decided to scale it back some, to 25 players, take some higher risk/reward type of guys and pay a lot of attention to the Bye Weeks.

QB:

QB Matt Stafford DET 5 $26

QB Joe Flacco BAL 8 $11

Have always gone with 2 QBs in the 7-10 range and then a 3rd cheap guy. For a long time this year I had Eli, Ryan and Tebow. Then I decided to go with only two and went to Ryan and Flacco. Finally I decided to go more studly and possibly more unique by switching to Stafford. Earlier Bye week helps. I like Flacco as a solid guy with some more upside than last season.

RB:

RB Darren McFadden OAK 5 $26

RB Adrian Peterson MIN 11 $21

RB Steven Ridley NE 9 $16

RB Rashad Jennings JAX 6 $9

RB Jonathan Dwyer PIT 4 $4

RB Cedric Benson GB 10 $3

I’ve had DMC on my team since the first iteration. Got him in a lot of leagues this year. Higher risk but huge reward. Decided to go high risk/reward with ADP as well. I’ve seen some good analysis on him being limited in his touches this year as they try to keep him healthy and I can see that. But to me there’s a good chance he’ll start slow and then his touches will go up and up as the season goes on. I look for huge numbers in the final 3 weeks of the season, if I get there. To combat that slower start, I went with two guys that should start right away but may see their touches decrease as the normal starters get back, Jennings and Dwyer. So no, I didn’t miss the memo that MJD reported. I just think he and Dwyer are good for starting the season as ADP warms up. Ridley is going to be a stud this year, IMO. Wish I had grabbed him in my dynasty instead of Vereen. Finally Benson isn’t that great but he doesn’t have to be in that offense. He should be a solid guy for Bye weeks. Had Royster on here for a long time but he got cut when I went to Stafford. As a fellow PSU alum, I hope he succeeds. I just have my doubts. Also had Taiwan Jones as a DMC handcuff for a long time but decided that would be a waste.

WR:

WR Jordy Nelson GB 10 $20

WR Marques Colston NO 6 $19

WR Torrey Smith BAL 8 $16

WR Pierre Garcon WAS 10 $14

WR Emmanuel Sanders PIT 4 $7

WR Jonathan Baldwin KC 7 $4

WR Ryan Broyles DET 5 $2

Really like these guys. 4 solid, almost studs in Nelson, Colston, Smith and Garcon. I think Smith breaks out this season and I think Garcon catches a ton of passes from RGIII. Sanders is behind Wallace and Brown of course, and I think Brown will explode this season, but I like Sanders as a guy who do pretty well from time to time, perfect for Best Ball. Baldwin and Broyles are two fliers that I like as boom or bust additions for Bye weeks. Had Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Jerome Simpson and Justin Blackmon for a long, long time. Looked at AJ Green for a while too. But decided to go less risky with WR than I did with RBs.

TE:

TE Vernon Davis SF 9 $17

TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 11 $11

TE Joel Dreessen DEN 7 $4

TE Dwayne Allen IND 4 $2

Four guys, different Bye weeks. A solid, almost stud in Davis. A higher risk/reward guy in Rudolph. A very risky pick in Dreessen over Tamme. And then a guy who I think will outplay his fellow rookie TE with Luck. Still some risk but for $2, why not.

PK:

PK Robbie Gould CHI 6 $3

PK Greg Zuerlein STL 9 $3

PK Shaun Suisham PIT 4 $3

Always need 3. Different, early Bye weeks. Got my PSU guy with Gould. Taking a risky guy with Zuerlein.

DEF:

DEF Jacksonville JAX 6 $3

DEF Cincinnati CIN 8 $3

DEF Miami MIA 7 $3

Always need 3. Different, early Bye weeks. All pretty much suck but I’m hoping for the best.

Bye Weeks: 4 players off weeks 4 and 6, so early is good. 2 guys off week 11 since it’s late. 3 guys off the other five Bye weeks. Assumed starters are off weeks 5, 5, 11, 10, 6, 8 and 9. Main backups/flexs off weeks 8, 9, 10, 11.

I like it.

 
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'The Real Hipster Doofus said:
My team with explanationsQB - Matt Ryan - ATL/7 - $19QB - Joe Flacco - BAL/8 - $11As opposed to most my usual strategy is not stud and scrub. I try to grab a mid level guy that I expect will jump significantly to near elite levels. Last year that was Stafford, this year I think Ryan is the guy. For my backup I had Luck, Flacco and Locker all at different times. I think each of them will have good enough weeks to score over Ryan as well as cover the bye week. Went with Flacco because he has a proven floor. RB - Arian Foster - HOU/8 - $34RB - Darren McFadden - OAK/5 - $26RB - Kendall Hunter - SF/9 - $6RB - Jonathan Dwyer - PIT/4 - $4RB - Cedric Benson - GB/10 - $3RB - Evan Royster - WAS/10 - $3Last year I went with the like 5 or 6 RB's in the mid range of prices and ended up with a bunch of crap. With the pricing the way it is I felt a couple stud RB's was doable. If they remain healthy I expect Foster and McFadden to be the top 2 RB's this year so that was a no brainer to me. I know McFadden is an injury risk but you need to take chances to win it all. If he wasn't an injury risk his cost would be more in line with the top 3 RB's as well. I expect Hunter to be the starter in SF before the year is over. I took Dwyer over Mendenhall because I believe he is the more talented back and has a higher ceiling. I am sure Royster and Benson will not live up to the hype but I would hate to not have them and they do at those prices. Also really like J. Rodgers, D. Wilson, Turbin and B. Powell at their prices but could not fit them in. WR - Calvin Johnson - DET/5 - $29WR - Julio Jones - ATL/7 - $23WR - Brandon Marshall - CHI/6 - $22WR - Justin Blackmon - JAX/6 - $7WR - Davone Bess - MIA/7 - $6WR - Danny Amendola - STL/9 - $6Last year Calvin Johnson almost single handedly kept me in contention despite an awful RB corps. His price did not correct enough this year, so I will gladly take him again. Jones and Marshall are two guys I expect to finish in the top 5 as well, so I had to fit them in. Marshall in particular will be a monster in this format IMO. Blackmon is a guy I would have paid an extra $5 for. I see him ending up as my flex a lot of weeks. Bess and Amendola are two rock solid PPR guys who won't have monster weeks, but will ensure a solid minimum level of production at the position. Really wanted to fit Titus Young and Austin Collie into the mix, but I couldn't make it work. TE - Jimmy Graham - NO/6 - $29TE - Scott Chandler - BUF/8 - $6This was my most changed position. I had Greg Olsen locked in from Day 1 as a super value pick. Decided it was worth the money for Graham and Olsen had the same bye so I couldn't keep him as well. Chandler is a guy who I think will be a fringe TE1 this year. He is pretty much there to cover the bye week, though I expect he might factor in as a flex a few times this year too. I also strongly considered Pettigrew, Gates and Hernandez, but I am happy with what I ended up with. PK - Rob Bironas - TEN/11 - $3PK - Matt Prater - DEN/7 - $3PK - Justin Medlock - CAR/6 - $33 kickers on offenses I like with different bye weeks. Not too much thought involved. TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/11 - $4TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/8 - $3Obviously a lot of people are on the Seattle DEF bandwagon. Hopefully that pick pays off. I wanted 3 DEF's but I just couldn't swing it. The Bengals are a total guess as to what $3 DEF will perform best. I started out with a roster of 28 and as I changed more and more my roster got smaller and smaller. The prices of the studs are too low to not load up on them IMO. With Foster, McFadden, Calvin, Julio, Marshall and Graham it is hard to imagine a week that at least 2 of them don't blow up for monster points and almost single handedly carry me through the cut. Or at least that is the theory. FWIW this lineup is projected at #6 for the Week 1 points
Leader in the clubhouse, IMO. Love this team. Good explanations as well.
 
In past years, I have rocked the 24-26 man rosters and always seem to make it to the top 1000, but never in the money. Went more agressive with bigger stars and smaller roster. Spent hours balancing dollars/week on byes and getting a mix I liked. Would love feedback or observations of others.

Drew Brees

Ryan Tannehill

Arian Foster

Darren Sproles

David Wilson

Cedric Benson

Evan Royster

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

Jordy Nelson

Danny Amendola

Steve Smith

Kevin Ogletree

Eddie Royal

Rob Gronkowski

Jared Cook

Adam Vinatieri

Matt Prater

Jay Feely

Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs

Washington Redskins

 
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This is very much like the "canceling" theory.

The most points wins, but theoretically you can bridge or create the gap between you and your competition.

 
Overall philosophy was to avoid studs with late bye weeks. Except for Brees, I took the most expensive Offensive player at each position as none had late bye weeks. Started at 28 players but kept getting progressively smaller until I ended up with 21.

Drew Brees $29 6

Ryan Tannehill $4 7

Taking one of the big QBs seems the way to go to me as I wanted to have 2 big names each at RB and WR. Brees and Stafford seemed the best values. However, I see Brees as more consistent and did not want McFaddenMegatron and Stafford all with the same bye. I did not have the guts to go with 1 QB especially with Graham also on a bye that week but did not see the reason to spend much on a backup. If I had went with a QB with a later bye week, I would have felt compelled to spend more on a backup.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arian Foster $34 8

Darren McFadden $26 5

Rashard Mendenhall $4 4

Jonathan Dwyer $4 4

Cedric Benson $3 10

Foster was an easy pick for me as I see him as the most likely RB to put up 40 points in a week. I did not like any of the RBs between $5 and Hillis. Decided to take McFadden and some flyers over Hillis and McGahee as he can score even with Rice and Shady on a PPG basis and the discount to Rice and Shady seemed to compensate for the increased injury risk. At the last minute, I traded Royster, McCluster and Taiwan Jones for the two Pitt RBs. Hoping that the Mendy/Dwyer turns into starter number 4. Obviously, need Foster and McFadden to stay healthy.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Calvin Johnson $29 5

Julio Jones $23 7

Torrey Smith $16 8

Justin Blackmon $7 6

Jerome Simpson $7 11

James Jones $3 10

Andre Roberts $3 10

Calvin seemed to be cheap considering what you get out of him. The early bye week made him an obvious pick to me. The deciding factor in many choices was to avoid commmon bye weeks as all are different except the two cheapies. Last year, I got very little production out of my $2 and $3 flyers. So this year, I chose to go with fewer but better players. Went with 1 less flyer and kicker to upgrade to Julio from Decker. Wanted Jordy Nelson really bad but kept him off due to the late bye. Blackmon seems an obvious value. I like Simpson better than Amendola as I don't see Bradford/Amendola getting many TDs this year although Amendola should get you steady points. Took Amendola's $6 and spent it on James Jones and Andre Roberts as James Jones scores enough long TDs that he should figure into my lineup at least a few times and Roberts seems like the kind of player that will at least keep you from getting a 0 in case of byes/injuries. Jennings concussion also factored into taking Jones.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jimmy Graham $29 6

Tony Gonzalez $13 7

I may have spent too much money here which could have been used for depth at RB or WR. However, I see too much of a dropoff below Gonzalez as Gonzalez should get enough catches at 1.5 points to be very useful. I am looking for Gonzalez to be my flex play most weeks.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rob Bironas $3 11

Matt Prater $3 7

I decided that (2 kickers + Julio) > (3 kickers + Decker + scrub WR). It seems like there is more variability in Defense scoring compared to Kicker scoring so I sacrificed a Kicker rather than a D.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Jets $4 9

Cincinnati Bengals $3 8

Kansas City Chiefs $3 7

Wanted 4 D's but decided on expensive skill players instead.

 
'LHUCKS said:
'butcher boy said:
Looking at all the rosters, this thread is going to be so :popcorn: when McFadden gets hurt.
The upside was too much to resist for me. Didn't even handcuff him with Taiwan Jones, I figure if McFadden goes down my team is toast anyhow.
:goodposting:
 
What I've done in previous years have gotten me deep, but never to the final 250... so I mixed it up this time... especially with high risk at QB which I think turned out well because I matched a bunch of other people.

QB - Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill and Tim Tebow - Rookie QBs and The Tebow... Was not expecting these guys to be the reason I would score enough each week, but with how the percentages fell, I am secure that in the weeks they do score well that many of the other teams end up using them, all the $$ they spend on their stud QB that didn't score enough is on the bench. So hopefully the money I spent elsewhere picks up the slack in those weeks.

RB - LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson - these were my top guys. Figuring start 2, so the top 2 should hopefully score most weeks. I think followed it up with the big ticket lotteries of Ben Tate (I am skeptical of the 'new and improved vegan Foster' holding up physically and when Tate plays he dominates), Jahvid Best - another solid point scorer if he plays, Rashard Mendenhall - will be Pitt's main back again at some point. Overall, with Tate, Best and Mendenhall, when the cut lines aren't so bad with all the junk teams, those guys are getting healthy and not getting hurt. So if at least one of them turns on a few weeks in, that could be a difference making. Threw in the $2 Lance Ball due to the PPR options. (though recent news now has Hillman more the guy in that.. doh)

WR - Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore+Devery Henderson (one of the NO WRs should have worthy FF pts/week), Randy Moss, Titus Young, Justin Blackmon (turned out highly owned, so bonus to own him too), Davone Bees, James Jones, Andre Roberts, Devin Hester, and Eddie Royal. Obviously I'm a large roster philosophy, so where to make the hay is with a stable of WRs. A couple solid situation guys and then a bunch of hot/cold guys. Just looking to get 3 total scoring each week, so hope they all don't score big in the same week and waste points.

TE - Jimmy Graham, Brandon Pettigrew, Greg Olsen - With the TE scoring system, I hope to fill my flex with TE pts each week by grabbing the best guy and another two solid scorers with Olsen possibly the next stud if he grabs his and shockey's production together this season. (I don't trust Cook anymore! lol)

PK - Matt Prater in the Denver air (a bonus here too, because he was highly owned) and Connor Barth. 5/7 bye weeks, get them done sooner than later

DEF - Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts. 4/8/11 bye weeks. Indy was for the week 4 bye.

Overall no PK or DEF on bye for week 6 which I feel will be the tough week to get through due missing 2 TEs that week...

I am not sure how my low priced ($21) QBs will end up... but if they pan out enough, I'm liking my chances.

 
I spent too much on TE this year :bag:

Bad coupme of weeks to be away on business. Will post it up here probably Sunday.

GL thread critters :)

-QG

 
I ended up with a bit smaller roster than I had for most of my 100's of entries. I also ended up picking more from the gut than from computer simulations:

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/7 - $19

QB - Jay Cutler - CHI/6 - $17

RB - Darren McFadden - OAK/5 - $26

RB - Marshawn Lynch - SEA/11 - $19

RB - Robert Turbin - SEA/11 - $6

RB - Rashard Mendenhall - PIT/4 - $4

RB - Cedric Benson - GB/10 - $3

RB - Evan Royster - WAS/10 - $3

RB - Taiwan Jones - OAK/5 - $2

WR - Brandon Lloyd - NE/9 - $18

WR - Dwayne Bowe - KC/7 - $17

WR - Darrius Heyward-Bey - OAK/5 - $16

WR - Kenny Britt - TEN/11 - $13

WR - Greg Little - CLE/10 - $12

WR - Justin Blackmon - JAX/6 - $7

WR - Steve Smith - STL/9 - $5

WR - Jonathan Baldwin - KC/7 - $4

WR - Eddie Royal - SD/7 - $2

TE - Brandon Pettigrew - DET/5 - $15

TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/6 - $11

TE - Lance Kendricks - STL/9 - $9

PK - Robbie Gould - CHI/6 - $3

PK - Matt Prater - DEN/7 - $3

PK - Greg Zuerlein - STL/9 - $3

TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - PIT/4 - $5

TD - New York Jets - NYJ/9 - $4

TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/11 - $4

See you all in the final 250.

 

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