I gave $7.21 mostly b/c that was the balance in my Paypal acct.
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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ignoratio Elenchi
- Start date
CalBear
Footballguy
The fallacy you are falling into is the idea that each player has a set number of bad games. They don't. Some guys have a bad game in week 1, and 15 more bad games. Some guys have a bad game in week 1, and 15 great games after that. Whether you had a bad week in week 1 or not has no bearing on how many more bad games you'll have for the rest of the season (except that it might suggest that you are more likely to have bad weeks than originally expected).'WisWolvrns said:
BroadwayG
Footballguy
They do have a set number of bad games. We just don't know how many yet.
butcher boy
Footballguy
It's going on the assumption that a stud like Rodgers will end up ok, despite an inevitable handful of stinkers he (and most every other stud) has over the course of the season. When I say in my head that I'm glad he got a stinker out of the way early, I'm not mentally marking that bad game off a set tally of bad games in my head. It's going off the most likely case of Rodgers being the stud we know he is, but with a handful of bad games here and there. This line of thinking is really only applicable to a consistent stud like Rodgers. If it were Chris Johnson, I'd be a lot more concerned that he's a bust and not as good as we thought.
I think most people figured this is probably what you meant but this is way different than what you said. Your statement implied that there was a fixed number of good/bad weeks for each player. Is it a good thing to have your players have an off week in a not cut week. Yes in the sense that it's better than they have it in a cut week. But your team having a bad week in a non cut week doesn't increase your chances of having a good week going forward. Your players will have ups and downs because that's how FF generally works, not because they already had a down week.'WisWolvrns said:
WisWolvrns
Footballguy
True, but predicting a player will have 3 bad weeks in a season or 1 bad week or 6 bad weeks is a similar forecasting method to predicting X points in a week or Y points in the year. Just more fuzzy math like.
So my way of looking at it, with respect to this particular scoring format, is judging players I buy on the probable amount of bad vs good weeks I'd expect from them.
I guess if one didn't pick their rosters in that way, then my desire for bad weeks early for the players I picked wouldn't fit as well. For my strategy though, it fits. Obviously, I'm on the side of the large roster sizes. So when picking my group of non-studs, I tend to lean toward the boom/bust players. So when I'm figuring a player will have 8 good weeks and 8 bad weeks, having one of the bad weeks in week 1 when there are no cuts is great for me.
Although for anyone predicting X stats for a player for the season, if they think they are good at it and did a good job, having a bunch of points in the first week still reduces the remaining weeks points available based off the total season projections a person gave a player. If not, then the person has to admit they aren't doing a good job at predicting what players will score in a season... chicken and the egg sorta thing...
So my way of looking at it, with respect to this particular scoring format, is judging players I buy on the probable amount of bad vs good weeks I'd expect from them.
I guess if one didn't pick their rosters in that way, then my desire for bad weeks early for the players I picked wouldn't fit as well. For my strategy though, it fits. Obviously, I'm on the side of the large roster sizes. So when picking my group of non-studs, I tend to lean toward the boom/bust players. So when I'm figuring a player will have 8 good weeks and 8 bad weeks, having one of the bad weeks in week 1 when there are no cuts is great for me.
Although for anyone predicting X stats for a player for the season, if they think they are good at it and did a good job, having a bunch of points in the first week still reduces the remaining weeks points available based off the total season projections a person gave a player. If not, then the person has to admit they aren't doing a good job at predicting what players will score in a season... chicken and the egg sorta thing...
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rustycolts
Footballguy
Thanks Mike great job just donated before I made this post.Good luck this year.'Organized Chaos said:Live(ish) scoring is now up and running. I'm running checks and updates every 10 minutes during the games.
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/
This year you can enter your FBG team ID or Team Name, take a look and let me know if you have any questions. (the team name will be updated weekly once the final scores are released, so if you change/set it in between there, just use your team ID)
I am much much busier than I was in year's past when managing this, so if something is incorrect, please PM me here or at http://FFLTools.com, I will not be checking this thread as much as I'd like. Also, I was going to make it mandatory to charge for this service this year, but to be completely honest, I don't have the time to convert the code to require it.
I don't want to sound like I'm begging here, but if you use my site and it brings value to you in this contest, please consider donating from the links on http://ffltools.com. It takes quite a bit of time that is very thin for me to get this prepared for this contest. Grabbing and loading the teams, modifying the code to make it more user friendly and not to mention the costs to host the multiple servers needed to run a service like this. I'd appreciate any donations if you use it please. It will help to cover some of the costs of taking on a project like this.
Good luck to everyone, sorry it took so long to get the site ready this year
Mike
CalBear
Footballguy
No matter how good someone is at forecasting, looking at actual results will always be more accurate. If the actual results are better than you expected, maybe your predictions were too low. If the actual results are worse, maybe your predictions were too high. It doesn't work the other way around.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
No. This is the part you shouldn't be saying.'WisWolvrns said:
rustycolts
Footballguy
19 QB Guy is at the bottom of the sim projections this week.19 QBs really?I can see 19 kickers thats proven strategy.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Just donated $5'Organized Chaos said:Live(ish) scoring is now up and running. I'm running checks and updates every 10 minutes during the games.
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/
This year you can enter your FBG team ID or Team Name, take a look and let me know if you have any questions. (the team name will be updated weekly once the final scores are released, so if you change/set it in between there, just use your team ID)
I am much much busier than I was in year's past when managing this, so if something is incorrect, please PM me here or at http://FFLTools.com, I will not be checking this thread as much as I'd like. Also, I was going to make it mandatory to charge for this service this year, but to be completely honest, I don't have the time to convert the code to require it.
I don't want to sound like I'm begging here, but if you use my site and it brings value to you in this contest, please consider donating from the links on http://ffltools.com. It takes quite a bit of time that is very thin for me to get this prepared for this contest. Grabbing and loading the teams, modifying the code to make it more user friendly and not to mention the costs to host the multiple servers needed to run a service like this. I'd appreciate any donations if you use it please. It will help to cover some of the costs of taking on a project like this.
Good luck to everyone, sorry it took so long to get the site ready this year
Mike
Das Boot
Footballguy
DittoJust donated $5'Organized Chaos said:Live(ish) scoring is now up and running. I'm running checks and updates every 10 minutes during the games.
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/
This year you can enter your FBG team ID or Team Name, take a look and let me know if you have any questions. (the team name will be updated weekly once the final scores are released, so if you change/set it in between there, just use your team ID)
I am much much busier than I was in year's past when managing this, so if something is incorrect, please PM me here or at http://FFLTools.com, I will not be checking this thread as much as I'd like. Also, I was going to make it mandatory to charge for this service this year, but to be completely honest, I don't have the time to convert the code to require it.
I don't want to sound like I'm begging here, but if you use my site and it brings value to you in this contest, please consider donating from the links on http://ffltools.com. It takes quite a bit of time that is very thin for me to get this prepared for this contest. Grabbing and loading the teams, modifying the code to make it more user friendly and not to mention the costs to host the multiple servers needed to run a service like this. I'd appreciate any donations if you use it please. It will help to cover some of the costs of taking on a project like this.
Good luck to everyone, sorry it took so long to get the site ready this year
Mike
flc735
Footballguy
what you are saying requires a crystal ball which would tell us the exact stats a player will put up in the year OR the direct influence of a higher power.what a player does in week 1 is irrelevant to what he does in weeks 2-17what do you think is going on here? do you think the coach says "ogletree caught 8 balls in week 1, that means i have to make sure he doesn't catch more than 1 this week"'WisWolvrns said:
kardplayer
Footballguy
Actually, that's a little true.On one hand, you have a coach/QB who needs to "get everyone the ball" to manage the egos... so if Ogletree catches 8 balls one week, you know Romo better get Austin and Bryant some of those balls in Week 2 and 3 so that they don't mutiny.On the other hand, you have the opposing coach who is now more likely to create a gameplan to stop Ogletree - or at the least, its less likely that there is a "stop Austin and Bryant and let Ogletree beat us" strategy that clearly didn't work in Week 1.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Anecdotally that's the kind of reasoning that sounds like it makes sense. But I'm pretty certain it's just not supported by the data. I think if you were right, we'd find that on average, if a player does well in week 1, then he'd do less well in subsequent weeks because future opponents would be gameplanning for him and his own coach would have to take some of his targets away to manage his teammates' egos. But that's not what we see. I believe that a good performance in week 1 is predictive of even more good performances in weeks 2-17. That's the gist of what we've been saying all along - if a guy does well in week 1, the only thing you should do (if anything) is increase your expectations for him in weeks 2-17, not assume that he's just putting his "bad weeks" off until later in the season.
I'm not sure how you can realistically predict the number of good or bad weeks without projecting out individual weeks. So if a player who you predicted to have a good week one instead has a bad one, it shouldn't change your good/bad week predictions for the rest of the season.I think you're way off on the chicken and egg sort of thing. When people make projections, weekly or seasonal, they know that there is volatility to the points scored. If I project 200 points for someone for the season and 10 of the them to come in week 1 and 190 for the rest of the season, why should the amount of points that player scored in week 1 alter my projection for the rest of the season? Say I thought the packers were going to go 12-4 this year, including a week 1 win versus san fran. Obviously they lost. So which is more logical, that I change a projected loss to a win so that I hit out to the 12 win projection? Or do I downgrade my win projection from 12 to 11?
ratbast
Footballguy
The opinion comes where and how you expect to read your projections. I would never think or want to breakdown a game by game analyses except to glance at matchups preseason.
This is what I tier for pre-draft. I do not project very much beyond that. So I don't care about my old projections on a week to week basis. I have already used and now have forgotten them. Now weekly and sometimes when preparing for the playoffs I say "oh he might score for me there, I would like to play him". So the opinion is how you follow and what your projections are for.
This is what I tier for pre-draft. I do not project very much beyond that. So I don't care about my old projections on a week to week basis. I have already used and now have forgotten them. Now weekly and sometimes when preparing for the playoffs I say "oh he might score for me there, I would like to play him". So the opinion is how you follow and what your projections are for.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Big thanks to Forte, FJax, Marshall and Gates this week
Might have a hope thanks to Cruz's monster game and Crosby's kicking.
Might have a hope thanks to Cruz's monster game and Crosby's kicking.
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Instinctive
Footballguy
Amendola my savior!!!
Gates + Hernandez looked so smart at the start of the season...it's a good thing I threw on Dwayne Allen, he may save me from the cut this week.
ETA: 101 other teams with Reggie Bush and Amendola.
Gates + Hernandez looked so smart at the start of the season...it's a good thing I threw on Dwayne Allen, he may save me from the cut this week.
ETA: 101 other teams with Reggie Bush and Amendola.
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Anyone else have the live scoring link showing Mason Crosby with 2 points?
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Big thanks to Forte, FJax, Marshall and Gates this week
May be doing an early exit this year: Forte, DMC, Marshall, gates...
(also have DMC)
Mario Kart
Footballguy
How many teams are getting the boot this week? I wouldn't be too worried if an injury or two is hurting any team.
Gates owner here.
Gates owner here.
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
I'm looking into these now, I'e got a couple of other scoring discrepancies that I am looking at as well. I'll report back.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Lots of bugs to work out, OC
Do you have INTs as -2 (instead of -1) - I noticed Locker is 15.8 on your site but I think it's 14.8
My entry seems to be missing Jonathan Baldwin (who is on my team)
Cincinnati's Punt Return touchdown wasn't included.
Nugent's field goals look like they weren't included at all.
-QG
Do you have INTs as -2 (instead of -1) - I noticed Locker is 15.8 on your site but I think it's 14.8
My entry seems to be missing Jonathan Baldwin (who is on my team)
Cincinnati's Punt Return touchdown wasn't included.
Nugent's field goals look like they weren't included at all.
-QG
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Anyone have an estimated cutoff?
rustycolts
Footballguy
If I don't get monster games out of Calvin,Gonzales,Young and Manninham I think you can stick a fork in me cuz I'm done.Live scoring app is showing up at 108.I will get a few more points out of my Krs though.Looks like I blew my wad last year.Being old that happens. Takes awhile to recuperate.
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chocula
Footballguy
I added $5 myself... Great tool and adds to the fun of Sundays while watching your fantasy teams.DittoJust donated $5Live(ish) scoring is now up and running. I'm running checks and updates every 10 minutes during the games.
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/
This year you can enter your FBG team ID or Team Name, take a look and let me know if you have any questions. (the team name will be updated weekly once the final scores are released, so if you change/set it in between there, just use your team ID)
I am much much busier than I was in year's past when managing this, so if something is incorrect, please PM me here or at http://FFLTools.com, I will not be checking this thread as much as I'd like. Also, I was going to make it mandatory to charge for this service this year, but to be completely honest, I don't have the time to convert the code to require it.
I don't want to sound like I'm begging here, but if you use my site and it brings value to you in this contest, please consider donating from the links on http://ffltools.com. It takes quite a bit of time that is very thin for me to get this prepared for this contest. Grabbing and loading the teams, modifying the code to make it more user friendly and not to mention the costs to host the multiple servers needed to run a service like this. I'd appreciate any donations if you use it please. It will help to cover some of the costs of taking on a project like this.
Good luck to everyone, sorry it took so long to get the site ready this year
Mike
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Thanks QG - Looking into these. I confirmed int's are -1, so thats not it, I will find out where it's off. Yeah, it looks like I need to make some adjustments to grab the defensive scoring and some of the kickers scores. Thanks for the specific examples, it will help me work through it.Lots of bugs to work out, OC
I wont be able to do anything with the cutoff until I get these bugs worked out.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Think I may go out this week. Brutal.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Drinen's sim has it under 137 80% of the time. Looks like the median sim estimate was about 130. Regardless of how actual scores went today if you're over 140 you should be plenty safe.
and if you are at 118.7 w/ Ryan (-15.8), Scheffler (-4.5) and Prater (-11), it's probably time to start
flc735
Footballguy
the live scoring thing says "Last Update - Cutoff: Sunday, September 16th 8:01pm Cutoff at that time: 114.35"is that the real time 80% cut off score?and if you are at 118.7 w/ Ryan (-15.8), Scheffler (-4.5) and Prater (-11), it's probably time to start
if so, with 2 games to go, i'd say the cutoff will be around 120
im sitting on 96 with akers, calvin and ryan to go, thanks to my gates/lewis TE combo
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Really doubt that. I'm going to say 145+eta - I'm at 145 plus whatever CJ gets in the second half and however many points the kicker scoring is off.the live scoring thing says "Last Update - Cutoff: Sunday, September 16th 8:01pm Cutoff at that time: 114.35"is that the real time 80% cut off score?and if you are at 118.7 w/ Ryan (-15.8), Scheffler (-4.5) and Prater (-11), it's probably time to start
if so, with 2 games to go, i'd say the cutoff will be around 120
im sitting on 96 with akers, calvin and ryan to go, thanks to my gates/lewis TE combo
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Organized Chaos
Footballguy
That score was based on incorrect (much lower) kicker and defensive scoring across the board. It is very off.Also, when it's working, yes, that the cut AT THAT TIME.'flc735 said:the live scoring thing says "Last Update - Cutoff: Sunday, September 16th 8:01pm Cutoff at that time: 114.35"is that the real time 80% cut off score?'levinakl said:and if you are at 118.7 w/ Ryan (-15.8), Scheffler (-4.5) and Prater (-11), it's probably time to start'ctriopelle said:
if so, with 2 games to go, i'd say the cutoff will be around 120
im sitting on 96 with akers, calvin and ryan to go, thanks to my gates/lewis TE combo
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Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Ok, I just made some changes and we're pulling in the correct scoring for defenses and kickers now. Please take a look at it and let me know if you guys see anything off.After rerunning the stats for all the games this week, it's got Locker's score at 15.8 now. So, my guess is that the page I grab the stats from was incorrect and the adjustment was made later. I only grab stats for the games while they are playing, then once again late Monday. (like 2am on Tue) at which time, it'll catch these on-offs.Found a couple other players like Baldwin that are on teams, but not in my master DB, so they're not showing up. I am working on fixing them.'Organized Chaos said:Thanks QG - Looking into these. I confirmed int's are -1, so thats not it, I will find out where it's off. Yeah, it looks like I need to make some adjustments to grab the defensive scoring and some of the kickers scores. Thanks for the specific examples, it will help me work through it.'QuizGuy66 said:Lots of bugs to work out, OCI wont be able to do anything with the cutoff until I get these bugs worked out.'JoeSteeler said:
Utter Chaos
Footballguy
According to the rules this year, interceptions are -2.'Organized Chaos said:Thanks QG - Looking into these. I confirmed int's are -1, so thats not it, I will find out where it's off.'QuizGuy66 said:Lots of bugs to work out, OC
Do you have INTs as -2 (instead of -1) - I noticed Locker is 15.8 on your site but I think it's 14.8
My entry seems to be missing Jonathan Baldwin (who is on my team)
Cincinnati's Punt Return touchdown wasn't included.
Nugent's field goals look like they weren't included at all.
-QG
Yeah, it looks like I need to make some adjustments to grab the defensive scoring and some of the kickers scores.
Thanks for the specific examples, it will help me work through it.
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
I believe I've worked out the bugs addressed in this thread so far. I'll check back, but please PM me if you see anything else off.
