***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (4 Viewers)

[ratbast]

117 for cut line...

 

[HairySasquatch]

108 cut line....may be more wishful thinking and less logic behind that guess.

 

[del mar]

Cut line = 20 less than my team scores.

 

[Bankerguy]

I predict a cut of 119.

I am feeling safe this week with my squad:

Brees

Tannehill-BYE

Foster

Sproles

Wilson

Benson-OUT

Royster

Calvin

Julio-BYE

Nelson

Amendola-OUT

Stl Smith

Ogletree

Royal-BYE

Gronk

Cook

Vinateri

Prater-BYE

Feely

Jags

Chiefs-BYE

Skins

Don't love my long term prospects unless Wilson emerges, but feel good about this week.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

My team is looking especially rough this week if my key injured guys (Murray, Mendenhall, Graham) don't play:

I'm so ####ed this week.

 

[BroadwayG]

could be sub 100

 

[comfortably numb]

It's gonna be so low, FBG is gonna bring back the people who were cut last week.

 

[rustycolts]

My team is looking especially rough this week if my key injured guys (Murray, Mendenhall, Graham) don't play:

I'm so ####ed this week.

All you can hope for is to at least get kissed first.Thats what I'm doing anyway.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

My team is looking especially rough this week if my key injured guys (Murray, Mendenhall, Graham) don't play:

I'm so ####ed this week.

Iggy, I still hold hope for you. Everyone is getting hammered with injuries and byes. It's like the perfect storm. I know I predicted a cut-line in the 130's, but I want to retract that with everyone out. I'm going to go low with a serious prediction -- 98.4.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Hope Iggy or someone can give us "True" roster sizes for this week. (that is how many are playing vs how many on bye, and injured if possible). This will be the truly nervous week for a lot of folks, myself included.-QG

This only accounts for byes, not injuries:

TRUESIZE	ALIVE	8		1     <--- 1125989		410		2611		4612		18213		33314		55115		73116		72917		60518		48019		37120		25221		22722		16223		13124		7925		5626		2227		928		329		1     <--- 102578

Looking at the above, we know that there are 1088 "-1's" due to Mendy being out; 560 more due to Murray being out; 3155 more with Benson being out; 1339 with Amendola being out; 1097 with Graham being out. That's 7239 "man games" lost from that already short list for just those 5 players.Edited to remove the random key-strikes from my 1 year-old.

 

[aburt19]

My team is looking especially rough this week if my key injured guys (Murray, Mendenhall, Graham) don't play:

I'm so ####ed this week.

Went thru a quick and dirty estimate based on Dodd's projection and your team scored 124.2. I think that will be enough to advance.

 

[kupcho1]

Hadn't checked in a while, shocked to see I'm still alive

Matt Ryan bye

Andrew Luck

Christian Ponder

Chris Johnson

Donald Brown out

Mikel Leshoure

Kendall Hunter next to nothing Thu night

Jonathan Dwyer

Evan Royster

Calvin Johnson

Brandon Marshall

Percy Harvin

Antonio Brown

Mike Williams

Eddie Royal

Brandon Pettigrew

Fred Davis

Connor Barth

Lawrence Tynes

Seattle Seahawks

Washington Redskins

 

[aburt19]

I noticed that live scoring doesn't have the numbers from Thursday night's game shown. I assume it will update today.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Really hope Gabbert earns his $6 today!

-QG

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Brees might beat the cut line on his own.

 

[Das Boot]

Fred Davis torn Achilles tendon, per PFT.

 

[Mario Kart]

With Rivers on bye, I was hoping for some more points from Ponder. Hoping the low scores this week hold true. I do have Marshall, Heath Miller and Gould still going so some points will be added. Kind of tense today.

 

[HairySasquatch]

We are going to need a cut line after the morning games....a lot of people sweating here

 

[Mario Kart]

Not a good week for Ponder and Rice to not show up. Confidence went from 90% to about 40%.

 

[Txns8]

Matt Ryan owner here with Flacco as my backup ( )

Also holding Dez ( )

 

[rustycolts]

Sitting at 116.3.With Calvin,Titus,Cecil,K.Davis and Jags D left all whose points should count.Hope the cut line is real low.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I'm @ 109.15 through the early games. I have Forte/M. Bush to go with all of the highest point-scorer adding to my total. I also have H. Miller -2.8 and Wallace -11.3 to go. I'm thinking something in the 130's seems likely.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Shockingly at 139 with nothing from QB...which won't change unless Tebow does something...and with Lynch showing as a 0 on the 35k Gameday site.

 

[urbanhack]

Cruz + Cobb> hey

 

[LHUCKS]

Gonna need a big day from Justin Blackmon.

 

[ctriopelle]

The cut last week was 141.5. this week we cut the same percent of teams with 2 extra teams on bye. I know that adds a few extra missing players for everyone, but I'd still expect the cut to be about 130-135.

Feeling pretty good myself at 137+ after the first games, with plenty of options to improve on that. I also now have 19 of 30 byes behind me as well as all my planned starters. We should see the cut line really ratchet up going forward, anyone with byes left for critical players ought to be pretty nervous at this point. I purposefully make sure to avoid late bye studs just to improve my odds late in the contest.

 

[QuizGuy66]

52.4 :( Dez did not help the situation.

Gabbert, K Smith Taiwan Jones Titus Young Broyles Blackmon Hernandez Gresham Nugent Cincy and Jets left.

Not good.

-QG

 

[Chainz]

152.5 with A.J. Green, Justin Blackmon (-3.7), Robbie Gould (-13) and the Jets (-2) still to go. Guess that's enough if Green is having a solid game. Didn't expect to advance this week with lots of my key players having their bye week. (Ryan, McGahee, Julio Jones, Gates)

 

[HairySasquatch]

The cut last week was 141.5. this week we cut the same percent of teams with 2 extra teams on bye. I know that adds a few extra missing players for everyone, but I'd still expect the cut to be about 130-135.Feeling pretty good myself at 137+ after the first games, with plenty of options to improve on that. I also now have 19 of 30 byes behind me as well as all my planned starters. We should see the cut line really ratchet up going forward, anyone with byes left for critical players ought to be pretty nervous at this point. I purposefully make sure to avoid late bye studs just to improve my odds late in the contest.

Lower....a lot of the guys going off are not on a lot of teams.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I'm so out.

 

[Saint]

Sitting at 79... but still have a number of guys yet... With Rudolph scoring 0... lance kendricks will count a whopping 3.5 for my TE position this week... well.. at least the $9 was worth something one week.

 

[smarchit]

82.2, with Dwyer (-6.5), Wallace, Megatron, and Blackmon (4.9/6.1 my scores to beat for a Flex or WR spot/6.5 if Dwyer counts)

 

[smarchit]

Doug Martin, Legatron, and Texans carrying me so far this week. No shows from Ponder (with Ryan bye) and Rudolph looking big.

 

[Hoosier16]

The cut last week was 141.5. this week we cut the same percent of teams with 2 extra teams on bye. I know that adds a few extra missing players for everyone, but I'd still expect the cut to be about 130-135.Feeling pretty good myself at 137+ after the first games, with plenty of options to improve on that. I also now have 19 of 30 byes behind me as well as all my planned starters. We should see the cut line really ratchet up going forward, anyone with byes left for critical players ought to be pretty nervous at this point. I purposefully make sure to avoid late bye studs just to improve my odds late in the contest.

I think it will be nearer to 110.

 

[Saint]

The cut last week was 141.5. this week we cut the same percent of teams with 2 extra teams on bye. I know that adds a few extra missing players for everyone, but I'd still expect the cut to be about 130-135.Feeling pretty good myself at 137+ after the first games, with plenty of options to improve on that. I also now have 19 of 30 byes behind me as well as all my planned starters. We should see the cut line really ratchet up going forward, anyone with byes left for critical players ought to be pretty nervous at this point. I purposefully make sure to avoid late bye studs just to improve my odds late in the contest.

Thinking lower as well... a number of teams are taking 0's at various positions for QB and TE this week with the Locker and Graham injuries, as well as Davis and Rudolph scoring 0s.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

The cut last week was 141.5. this week we cut the same percent of teams with 2 extra teams on bye. I know that adds a few extra missing players for everyone, but I'd still expect the cut to be about 130-135.Feeling pretty good myself at 137+ after the first games, with plenty of options to improve on that. I also now have 19 of 30 byes behind me as well as all my planned starters. We should see the cut line really ratchet up going forward, anyone with byes left for critical players ought to be pretty nervous at this point. I purposefully make sure to avoid late bye studs just to improve my odds late in the contest.

Lower....a lot of the guys going off are not on a lot of teams.

And a lot of heavily-owned players hurt this week.

 

[HairySasquatch]

McFadden could move the cut line depending on his output....he is on 1105 out of 5000 teams

 

[Mario Kart]

There are a lot of high scoring games today. Not sure which players are doing the scoring but if you have one of those QB's, you should be ahead of the cut line.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Gabbert Time!!! Just need like 4 more from him...

-QG

 

[HairySasquatch]

There are a lot of high scoring games today. Not sure which players are doing the scoring but if you have one of those QB's, you should be ahead of the cut line.

I have brees....but the rest of my team is so beat up or on byes that it will be close.flex=1 point from royster catch for 0 yards (will not improve)K=0 Prater on bye, Cundiff cutTE=2.4 from Allen, Graham hurt and Dreesen on byeBig days from Brees, Nelson, Foster are the only thing keeping hope alive

 

[ctriopelle]

The cut last week was 141.5. this week we cut the same percent of teams with 2 extra teams on bye. I know that adds a few extra missing players for everyone, but I'd still expect the cut to be about 130-135.Feeling pretty good myself at 137+ after the first games, with plenty of options to improve on that. I also now have 19 of 30 byes behind me as well as all my planned starters. We should see the cut line really ratchet up going forward, anyone with byes left for critical players ought to be pretty nervous at this point. I purposefully make sure to avoid late bye studs just to improve my odds late in the contest.

Lower....a lot of the guys going off are not on a lot of teams.

And a lot of heavily-owned players hurt this week.

I know there's a lot of hopeful folks this week, thinking that the cut will drop a lot, but we're still looking at a fairly diverse set of rosters. Will it drop from last week? Probably, but not much more than 10-15 points. You could take a calculated risk at surviving this week with scoring being down somewhat, but there are still a lot of rosters putting up pretty typical scores.

 

[Mario Kart]

THE CONTEST IS NOW LOCKED.

Useful Links:

LIVE SCORING! - Fellow FBG OrganizedChaos puts this together every year on his own time and on his own dime. He is once again providing this wonderful service for free, so definitely check it out, and if you like it I encourage you to use the donation links on his site to send him a few bucks to show your appreciation.

Ownership stats

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Click here to see your team.

 

[Saint]

heard MJD was carted off in the JAC game with return questionable... that'll affect some teams as well.

 

[HairySasquatch]

heard MJD was carted off in the JAC game with return questionable... that'll affect some teams as well.

only on 115 teams

 

[smarchit]

heard MJD was carted off in the JAC game with return questionable... that'll affect some teams as well.

And put more of the load on Gabbert to save some other teams

 

[Saint]

heard MJD was carted off in the JAC game with return questionable... that'll affect some teams as well.

only on 115 teams

True.... but I appreciate this type of info:
[*]115 teams taking < 1 pt for MJD

[*]484 teams taking a 0 for Vernon Davis

[*]665 teams taking a 0 for Kyle Rudolph (unfortunately I am one of them)

[*]1,097 teams taking a 0 for Jimmy Graham

That info gives me hope when my score is less than 100 at this point....

 

[HairySasquatch]

448 Teams with Jennings doing the happy dance (not me)

 

[pizzatyme]

Gabbert injured. Henne warming up.

 

[QuizGuy66]

And that's the ballgame - Gabbert hurt his shoulder. Can't say his total of 11.0 wasn't out of the range of what was expected :(

-QG

 

[smarchit]

Gabbert injured. Henne warming up.

Doesn't affect me directly for this, but kinda sucks that I was relying on him to cover a bye in one of my deep leagues. At least he gave me a TD, which probably blew his projection out of the water.