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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (3 Viewers)

Good luck to everyone tonight.

I hit 200+ so I live to fight at least one more week.

Still think the winner will have Ryan/RG3 combo at QB.

Unfort the rest of my squad isn't quite up to par.

Just fun to be part of the game at this stage.

http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/teams/2012/100862

EDIT to add after 12 wks Wilson is my only unused player ytd.

Maybe he'll get a chance to contribute before we hit the finish line.

 
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*sigh* Of course my ghost entry has 199.25 + (Olsen - 16.10). Everything is on all cylinders all of a sudden *sigh*. Good luck Turk Sweaters!

-QG

 
FFTools said the cutoff is 157.35 as of last night at 8:01. Last night they were saying the cutoff was around 174.

I am at 173.45 and only have Brandon Lafell -15.9 left.

I see Cam is going to him and he has a TD, but I would love to hit 180 to feel better about this thing.

BTW.. What is up with Titus Young ? What a fool, I needed production from him.

 
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My hopes for survival are solely in Carolina's D's hands. And they keep dropping these picks. Maybe Foles will keep throwing them to the Def in the 2nd half. :popcorn:

 
I have the cutline at 170.85 at the end of the first half. I am going to check why FFL Tools has a higher cutline - possibly there were adjustments made post my download of data...

 
FFTools said the cutoff is 157.35 as of last night at 8:01. Last night they were saying the cutoff was around 174. I am at 173.45 and only have Brandon Lafell -15.9 left. I see Cam is going to him and he has a TD, but I would love to hit 180 to feel better about this thing.BTW.. What is up with Titus Young ? What a fool, I needed production from him.
Just checked the FFL Tools site - it still says 157.35. I think the 174 you are referring to might be what I posted - that was the projected cutline if everyone in tonight's game scored what FBG had projected for them.
 
FFTools said the cutoff is 157.35 as of last night at 8:01. Last night they were saying the cutoff was around 174. I am at 173.45 and only have Brandon Lafell -15.9 left. I see Cam is going to him and he has a TD, but I would love to hit 180 to feel better about this thing.BTW.. What is up with Titus Young ? What a fool, I needed production from him.
Just checked the FFL Tools site - it still says 157.35. I think the 174 you are referring to might be what I posted - that was the projected cutline if everyone in tonight's game scored what FBG had projected for them.
Yes, that is what I meant... That the 174 was posted, not necessarily in the tool.
 
Please tell me that fumble recovery on the kickoff counts formthemCarolina D. That would get me to 171.85. Wow this is close!

 
I have the final cutline as 171.55. As always, don't celebrate too hard if you are over the line, or feel too down if you are below it. Official cutline comes from FBG on Tuesdays.

 
I have the final cutline as 171.55. As always, don't celebrate too hard if you are over the line, or feel too down if you are below it. Official cutline comes from FBG on Tuesdays.
Thanks kardplayer... You are a huge help with all of this. Good luck to everyone
 
Good luck to everyone this week.Last year cut line was 164.25 and I scored 164.55.I would like to have a little more comfortable cushion going into Monday night this year.Congrats to all who made final 500.

 
Yep. It seems like the difference is stat corrections. There are always a few players who have different scores Tuesday morning than they did Monday night. I guess this week's were a little less impactful than others.

 
Code:
SIZE	ALL	ALIVE	SURV%18	4633	137	3.0%19	1813	56	3.1%20	1376	51	3.7%21	1142	35	3.1%22	966	41	4.2%23	812	48	5.9%24	626	27	4.3%25	482	28	5.8%26	380	14	3.7%27	308	12	3.9%28	229	16	7.0%29	191	13	6.8%30	335	22	6.6%TOT	13293	500	3.8%
 
Snuck through with 173.25. Closest cut of the year for me also, and really need Harvin back to have any hope of competing. Interesting that the 18/19 player rosters have the most teams left - looks like the stud strategy is working this year as the cuts get tighter.

 
Snuck through with 173.25. Closest cut of the year for me also, and really need Harvin back to have any hope of competing. Interesting that the 18/19 player rosters have the most teams left - looks like the stud strategy is working this year as the cuts get tighter.
I think it makes sense as long as you pick the right 18/19. Margin for error is much tighter on limited rosters.
 
Interesting that the 18/19 player rosters have the most teams left - looks like the stud strategy is working this year as the cuts get tighter.
Huh?
The concept of percentages is lost, I'm guessing."Don't stop him now. He's on a roll."
So do you think the winner is more likely to come out of the 28 person squads or one of the 18/19 player squads? I think the percentages are pretty even across the spectrum (from 3-7%) so if the vast majority of teams left are from the lower end of the spectrum, I say they are doing pretty well, considering there is a bit more luck involved with less players. I guess I don't see a 4% swing as that significant due to the small numbers overall, particularly in some of the higher player teams.
 
Interesting that the 18/19 player rosters have the most teams left - looks like the stud strategy is working this year as the cuts get tighter.
Huh?
The concept of percentages is lost, I'm guessing."Don't stop him now. He's on a roll."
So do you think the winner is more likely to come out of the 28 person squads or one of the 18/19 player squads? I think the percentages are pretty even across the spectrum (from 3-7%) so if the vast majority of teams left are from the lower end of the spectrum, I say they are doing pretty well, considering there is a bit more luck involved with less players. I guess I don't see a 4% swing as that significant due to the small numbers overall, particularly in some of the higher player teams.
Doesn't have anything to do with what group I think the ultimate winner will come from. There were over 6,400 18-19 man rosters at jump, of course there would be more of them left than any of the other groups now. That's almost half the total entries. It should have been pretty much expected. That was my point.The averages certainly show the final team standing should be a 28 man team. Weird s#@$@ happens though. If I had to hazard a guess I'd say the winner will have at least 23 players on the roster though.
 
Interesting that the 18/19 player rosters have the most teams left - looks like the stud strategy is working this year as the cuts get tighter.
Huh?
The concept of percentages is lost, I'm guessing."Don't stop him now. He's on a roll."
So do you think the winner is more likely to come out of the 28 person squads or one of the 18/19 player squads? I think the percentages are pretty even across the spectrum (from 3-7%) so if the vast majority of teams left are from the lower end of the spectrum, I say they are doing pretty well, considering there is a bit more luck involved with less players. I guess I don't see a 4% swing as that significant due to the small numbers overall, particularly in some of the higher player teams.
Doesn't have anything to do with what group I think the ultimate winner will come from. There were over 6,400 18-19 man rosters at jump, of course there would be more of them left than any of the other groups now. That's almost half the total entries. It should have been pretty much expected. That was my point.The averages certainly show the final team standing should be a 28 man team. Weird s#@$@ happens though. If I had to hazard a guess I'd say the winner will have at least 23 players on the roster though.
I understand, and I was looking at total numbers rather than percentages in a real quick, off the cuff, comment. My question I guess, and this goes to my question to expound of the r2 value as well, is if there is enough teams in each of the 23-29 slots to not skew the percentages higher just because of the lower number of teams? I'll freely admit I don't know enough statistics to be able to figure out the answer to that, and I'm interested in knowing that answer.
 
I don't care so much to check this today but if I can survive into the final 250 I'd like to know is there a quick way to be able to check how many rosters contain certain players? Like if I'm alive next week I'd like to know how many teams have DMAC, Gates, etc, etc.

 
I don't care so much to check this today but if I can survive into the final 250 I'd like to know is there a quick way to be able to check how many rosters contain certain players? Like if I'm alive next week I'd like to know how many teams have DMAC, Gates, etc, etc.
Querier post#1
 
Interesting that the 18/19 player rosters have the most teams left - looks like the stud strategy is working this year as the cuts get tighter.
Huh?
The concept of percentages is lost, I'm guessing."Don't stop him now. He's on a roll."
So do you think the winner is more likely to come out of the 28 person squads or one of the 18/19 player squads? I think the percentages are pretty even across the spectrum (from 3-7%) so if the vast majority of teams left are from the lower end of the spectrum, I say they are doing pretty well, considering there is a bit more luck involved with less players. I guess I don't see a 4% swing as that significant due to the small numbers overall, particularly in some of the higher player teams.
Dude, the difference isn't 3-4 % it's more like 50% comparing the most favorable survivor pools to the least favorable. The more successful pools survived at over 6% and the small rosters survived at only about 3%. You were over twice as likely to survive with a big roster than the small ones.That said, the big rosters are built to survive. I'm a 30 man roster and incredibly consistent as a top 50% score, but I never threw up a "huge" week. A small roster that lived though is probably more explosive (bigger high end players), and has a better shot once they get their IF their particular players go off and stay hot all 3 weeks. Personally, I'd rather make it to the end to have a chance than take a huge gamble of even making the 250. It's nice getting a pretty consistent free FBG subscription :thumbup: , and have a legitimate 1 in 250 shot at some big holiday cash!Let's get it on! :football:
 
Interesting that the 18/19 player rosters have the most teams left - looks like the stud strategy is working this year as the cuts get tighter.
Huh?
The concept of percentages is lost, I'm guessing."Don't stop him now. He's on a roll."
So do you think the winner is more likely to come out of the 28 person squads or one of the 18/19 player squads? I think the percentages are pretty even across the spectrum (from 3-7%) so if the vast majority of teams left are from the lower end of the spectrum, I say they are doing pretty well, considering there is a bit more luck involved with less players. I guess I don't see a 4% swing as that significant due to the small numbers overall, particularly in some of the higher player teams.
Dude, the difference isn't 3-4 % it's more like 50% comparing the most favorable survivor pools to the least favorable. The more successful pools survived at over 6% and the small rosters survived at only about 3%. You were over twice as likely to survive with a big roster than the small ones.That said, the big rosters are built to survive. I'm a 30 man roster and incredibly consistent as a top 50% score, but I never threw up a "huge" week. A small roster that lived though is probably more explosive (bigger high end players), and has a better shot once they get their IF their particular players go off and stay hot all 3 weeks. Personally, I'd rather make it to the end to have a chance than take a huge gamble of even making the 250. It's nice getting a pretty consistent free FBG subscription :thumbup: , and have a legitimate 1 in 250 shot at some big holiday cash!Let's get it on! :football:
I agree with what you are saying about built for survival vs. built for winning. I meant a 4 percentage point swing, not 4 actual percent, sorry. And I was optimistic that one of the smaller stud built rosters would win the thing.
 
Based on the chart above, roster size r squared = .586
Can you expound on this a little? I know that closer to 0 means more variance and closer to 1 means less (at least I think that's what I know.) Can you explain how that applies to this example?
We might hypothesize that there's a linear relationship between roster size and survival probability, i.e. we predict that the pattern will lie directly on a straight line. Very loosely speaking, R^2 tells us how closely the actual observed data fit to the line we theoretically expect them to. Closer to 1 is better. 0.58 is pretty good. That means there's a pretty solid correlation between roster size and survival.
 
36 teams have Rodgers and Foster combo. Add Chris Johnson then there is only another team and mine.Then throw in Calvin and I am the only team with those players according to the quierier.Also have Boldin,Bess, Shorts and Gonzales to round things out.Seems pretty unique is that good or bad going forward in the contest?I have a 28 man roster those are the guys who contribute the most.

 
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Good luck to all. Furthest I have made it and it was fun to follow.

Had a 21 man roster. Think I will up it to 24-25 next year. I spent $53 that was not spent well. Need to lower that amount as 20% of the money is far too much to waste. That $53 was on three players.

 
So last week, the person at #250 scored 186.05. I realize that many teams were between that score and mine, but with some luck, I actually have a chance to make the top 250....

Great contest.

 

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