Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

Timmy still trying to understand how such a travesty has occurred...how are all these people so uninformed/moronic/uneducated etc. etc.

Poor guy.

Nope, I'm resigned to it. The Republican party that I grew up with is dead. They're going to actually nominate this guy. Oh well. 

The Republican base has proved itself incapable of responsible governance. It will be up to the rest of us- Democrats, independents, and rational conservatives- to put this man away. 

 

[shader]

Nope, I'm resigned to it. The Republican party that I grew up with is dead. They're going to actually nominate this guy. Oh well. 

The Republican base has proved itself incapable of responsible governance. It will be up to the rest of us- Democrats, independents, and rational conservatives- to put this man away. 

Tim I'm not political and have no dog in the hunt.  But Trump is poised to steamroll Hillary.  He's gaining momentum like no politician I've ever seen.

 

[The General]

Reince Preibus has issued a statement:

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/Cb801aFW8AEfCEW.mp4

 

[TripItUp]

Nope, I'm resigned to it. The Republican party that I grew up with is dead. They're going to actually nominate this guy. Oh well. 

That's a good first step.  Maybe next you can try to explain the phenomenon.  What do all these people feel that you don't feel?

Let's start there.

 

[timschochet]

Tim I'm not political and have no dog in the hunt.  But Trump is poised to steamroll Hillary.  He's gaining momentum like no politician I've ever seen.

I guess we'll see. The statistics regarding battleground states don't show that. Neither does the polling, but that's irrelevant at this point anyhow. We're a long way from November, and we'll find out. If I had to guess right now, I believe that it is the exact opposite of what you've written. But things can change rather quickly. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Only 30% of Latinos in Nevada are Republican. Which means only 13% of Latinos in the state supported Trump. Still seems too high to me. But those numbers shouldn't exactly encourage any Trump fans...

Care to explain why he did better in the Rep latino demographic than the Rep white demographic?

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Care to explain why he did better in the Rep latino demographic than the Rep white demographic?

Clearly he does well among rapists.

 

[timschochet]

That's a good first step.  Maybe next you can try to explain the phenomenon.  What do all these people feel that you don't feel?

Let's start there.

You know TripItUp, people claim that I don't understand Trump's popularity. But that's not true. I get it. Republicans have had it up to here with the GOP establishment. They feel like they have been betrayed, that the GOP has gone along with Obama and made a mess of things. They don't like Obamacare, they don't like illegal immigrants, they don't like that Obama seems soft overseas and makes deals with terrorists, they don't like that America seems weak, they don't like political correctness and feeling like they have to apologize all the time for being proud Americans. Yeah I get it. 

What I do NOT believe is that these views have spread out beyond the base of the Republican party to representing our overall population. I think there are enough of the rest of us to beat this tide back. That might be wishful thinking on my part. We'll find out soon enough. 

 

[Smack Tripper]

Nope, I'm resigned to it. The Republican party that I grew up with is dead. They're going to actually nominate this guy. Oh well. 

The Republican base has proved itself incapable of responsible governance. It will be up to the rest of us- Democrats, independents, and rational conservatives- to put this man away. 

The Republican Party you grew up with is represented by Hillary clinton

 

[Leroy's Aces]

I thought this article was interesting:

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/02/unless-the-democrats-nominate-sanders-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency

Especially this, which is exactly my take on how Trump will slay Hillary:

Trump’s political dominance is highly dependent on his idiosyncratic, audacious method of campaigning. He deals almost entirely in amusing, outrageous, below-the-belt personal attacks, and is skilled at turning public discussions away from the issues and toward personalities (He/she’s a “loser,” “phony,” “nervous,” “hypocrite,” “incompetent.”) If Trump does have to speak about the issues, he makes himself sound foolish, because he doesn’t know very much. Thus he requires the media not to ask him difficult questions, and depends on his opponents’ having personal weaknesses and scandals that he can merrily, mercilessly exploit.

This campaigning style makes Hillary Clinton Donald Trump’s dream opponent. She gives him an endless amount to work with. The emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, Iraq, the Lewinsky scandal, Chinagate, Travelgate, the missing law firm records, Jeffrey Epstein, Kissinger, Marc Rich, Haiti, Clinton Foundation tax errors, Clinton Foundation conflicts of interest, “We were broke when we left the White House,” Goldman Sachs… There is enough material in Hillary Clinton’s background for Donald Trump to run with six times over.

 

[TripItUp]

You know TripItUp, people claim that I don't understand Trump's popularity. But that's not true. I get it. Republicans have had it up to here with the GOP establishment. They feel like they have been betrayed, that the GOP has gone along with Obama and made a mess of things. They don't like Obamacare, they don't like illegal immigrants, they don't like that Obama seems soft overseas and makes deals with terrorists, they don't like that America seems weak, they don't like political correctness and feeling like they have to apologize all the time for being proud Americans. Yeah I get it. 

What I do NOT believe is that these views have spread out beyond the base of the Republican party to representing our overall population. I think there are enough of the rest of us to beat this tide back. That might be wishful thinking on my part. We'll find out soon enough. 

I like this post.

 

[timschochet]

Care to explain why he did better in the Rep latino demographic than the Rep white demographic?

i don't have the numbers in front of me, but I would guess that white Republicans are a lot larger sample size than Latino Republicans. 

 

[The General]

At this point I think he is going to win the whole thing.  I have been so wrong about this whole thing - thought he would either quit months, melted down, or been bounced - so my opinion isn't worth a whole lot. My state doesn't matter in terms of picking president, Hillary will win comfortably.

Feel sorry for you folks in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida wherever else plays out as the battleground states. You guys are going to get carpet bombed with ads like no other. It is going to be madness.

 

[TripItUp]

Here comes the clueless Cruz speech...it's like he's on another planet.

 

[SIDA!]

I guess we'll see. The statistics regarding battleground states don't show that. Neither does the polling, but that's irrelevant at this point anyhow. We're a long way from November, and we'll find out. If I had to guess right now, I believe that it is the exact opposite of what you've written. But things can change rather quickly. 

Please point me to the data/polls that suggested Trump would win three of the first four states?

ETA: I mean...from August/Sept. Not January.

 

[Shula-holic]

Here comes the clueless Cruz speech...it's like he's on another planet.

Until tonight I really thought Rubio had a shot if Cruz dropped out.  But I just can't see either Cruz or Rubio picking up 80% of the others supporters or anything close to that if the other drops out.  Rubio is the establishment and many of those are on record saying they'd choose Trump over Cruz.  Cruz's support comes from anti-establishment roots, hard to believe they'd turn to Rubio by some overwhelming number.  I still think Rubio is the only one with a shot left, but it's a long one, and he'd need almost every Kasich vote and to somehow get Cruz out and at least take a decent majority of his voters.  I don't know that even if Cruz dropped out that it's a realistic scenario.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

While we watch Cruz speak, realize he is currently from 33 to 66 to 1 to become President. Bloomberg has better odds right now. 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

 

[Zegras11]

You know TripItUp, people claim that I don't understand Trump's popularity. But that's not true. I get it. Republicans have had it up to here with the GOP establishment. They feel like they have been betrayed, that the GOP has gone along with Obama and made a mess of things. They don't like Obamacare, they don't like illegal immigrants, they don't like that Obama seems soft overseas and makes deals with terrorists, they don't like that America seems weak, they don't like political correctness and feeling like they have to apologize all the time for being proud Americans. Yeah I get it. 

What I do NOT believe is that these views have spread out beyond the base of the Republican party to representing our overall population. I think there are enough of the rest of us to beat this tide back. That might be wishful thinking on my part. We'll find out soon enough. 

Tim, maybe not the same rate as R, but D's are just as pissed.  If 92% was the R number tonight, my best guess the D number is 50%

 

[TripItUp]

Until tonight I really thought Rubio had a shot if Cruz dropped out.  But I just can't see either Cruz or Rubio picking up 80% of the others supporters or anything close to that if the other drops out.  Rubio is the establishment and many of those are on record saying they'd choose Trump over Cruz.  Cruz's support comes from anti-establishment roots, hard to believe they'd turn to Rubio by some overwhelming number.  I still think Rubio is the only one with a shot left, but it's a long one, and he'd need almost every Kasich vote and to somehow get Cruz out and at least take a decent majority of his voters.  I don't know that even if Cruz dropped out that it's a realistic scenario.

The game is over.

Trump vs. Hillary in what should be epic entertainment.

 

[Zegras11]

Cruz was pathetic.

 

[timschochet]

Tim, maybe not the same rate as R, but D's are just as pissed.  If 92% was the R number tonight, my best guess the D number is 50%

But enough to vote for Donald Trump, who believes that climate change is a myth? (To cite just one issue important to most Democrats.) I can't see that. 

 

[TripItUp]

Trump is well within the margin of error to beat Hillary in the general...and if you're looking at momentum, those polls will likely show something completely different in a few weeks.

This will be a race.

 

[timschochet]

Please point me to the data/polls that suggested Trump would win three of the first four states?

ETA: I mean...from August/Sept. Not January.

I'm not going to do that, SIDA because I don't trust them. We'll know more in the summertime. I don't think Trump beats Hillary in Florida, which as usual is the key to the election. But we'll see. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Wow, Trump moving close to a double up.

 

[timschochet]

Trump is well within the margin of error to beat Hillary in the general...and if you're looking at momentum, those polls will likely show something completely different in a few weeks.

This will be a race.

All joking aside,I agree,  it's going to be a very tough race. It might not end up that way electorally speaking. But it will be very close and a major fight. Probably the most contentious fight in our lifetimes. 

 

[Zegras11]

But enough to vote for Donald Trump, who believes that climate change is a myth? (To cite just one issue important to most Democrats.) I can't see that. 

Possibly.  64% are living pay check to pay check.  Tapping into those votes will win the election, not climate change.

 

[Loan Sharks]

You know TripItUp, people claim that I don't understand Trump's popularity. But that's not true. I get it. Republicans have had it up to here with the GOP establishment. They feel like they have been betrayed, that the GOP has gone along with Obama and made a mess of things. They don't like Obamacare, they don't like illegal immigrants, they don't like that Obama seems soft overseas and makes deals with terrorists, they don't like that America seems weak, they don't like political correctness and feeling like they have to apologize all the time for being proud Americans. Yeah I get it. 

What I do NOT believe is that these views have spread out beyond the base of the Republican party to representing our overall population. I think there are enough of the rest of us to beat this tide back. That might be wishful thinking on my part. We'll find out soon enough. 

Tim I wanted to thank you for getting me involved in politics again. I got onto the Trump bandwagon as a joke because the constant attacks on people from you, Tobias and elite leftist snobs was just disgusting. 

Trump is going to be the president and it is going to be because of you and what you represent.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

While we watch Cruz speak, realize he is currently from 33 to 66 to 1 to become President. Bloomberg has better odds right now. 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

Love that 'Deez Nutz" is still getting ranked (and higher than Jeb Bush)

 

[Pumpnick]

i'll take all 1-1 bets trump against hillary.   site mail me

 

[Smack Tripper]

Geez where would we be if Cruz didn't sneak by in Iowa.   Trump took a punch, I'll give him credit, I was wrong I didn't think he could rally. 

 

[TripItUp]

Geez where would we be if Cruz didn't sneak by in Iowa.   Trump took a punch, I'll give him credit, I was wrong I didn't think he could rally. 

Cruz camped out in Iowa for a year... a state with a huge percentage of evangelicals. 

Trump showed up in a jet with no ground game and kept it close.

The writing was on the wall.

 

[Pumpnick]

i'll take all 1-1 bets trump against hillary.   site mail me

bump

 

[SIDA!]

I'm not going to do that, SIDA because I don't trust them. We'll know more in the summertime. I don't think Trump beats Hillary in Florida, which as usual is the key to the election. But we'll see. 

I think you are missing my point. Or maybe it is on me with my tired brain still working on less than needed sleep.

My point has been for months that Trumps unfavorables are overestimated for a variety of reasons. In the beginning with the GOP base his negatives were inflated because he was a joke candidate and no serious thinking Republican wanted to consider the possibility that he was viable. So..nobody could vote for him. 

As time went on...Trump just by staying in the race during the fall softened those numbers. And as he has run and began to do very well in primaries the numbers fall even more. And when he wraps up the nomination...those who still say they don't like him will warm up to the idea of beating Clinton and so forth.

I said that the same phenomenon will play out in a similar manner in the general. In the general, more and more people will warm to him. Those on the left and independents can say that they wont vote for him. But more and more independents and working class Dems will be forced to naturally take a look at him (he is a joke to them still) when it is one on one. And they are going to respond to his message.

One of the most important things that none of you on the left are understanding is that he is going to eviscerate HRC in ways you cannot fathom or comprehend. You guys, not really aware of it...have never really truly understood how protected your candidates are by the mainstream media.

I would think that you guys would have had a wake up call once Trump punched Bill in the mouth and stopped the war on women attacks from the HRC dead in their tracks. But...if there is one recurring theme throughout this cycle it is that those who are wrong are incapable of realizing that they are wrong and that the entire paradgim has changed.

So...you will say what you have been saying for months about Trump and then finally concede that you are wrong but that you don't think it will play in the general. And then that will happen for months and months and then eventually you will realize that there are a lot of bigots in the Democrat party who voted for Trump.

 

 

[Smack Tripper]

Just catching up to Cruz on the dvr... That is some slapdash crew he has up there with him.  

 

[Pumpnick]

I think you are missing my point. Or maybe it is on me with my tired brain still working on less than needed sleep.

My point has been for months that Trumps unfavorables are overestimated for a variety of reasons. In the beginning with the GOP base his negatives were inflated because he was a joke candidate and no serious thinking Republican wanted to consider the possibility that he was viable. So..nobody could vote for him. 

As time went on...Trump just by staying in the race during the fall softened those numbers. And as he has run and began to do very well in primaries the numbers fall even more. And when he wraps up the nomination...those who still say they don't like him will warm up to the idea of beating Clinton and so forth.

I said that the same phenomenon will play out in a similar manner in the general. In the general, more and more people will warm to him. Those on the left and independents can say that they wont vote for him. But more and more independents and working class Dems will be forced to naturally take a look at him (he is a joke to them still) when it is one on one. And they are going to respond to his message.

One of the most important things that none of you on the left are understanding is that he is going to eviscerate HRC in ways you cannot fathom or comprehend. You guys, not really aware of it...have never really truly understood how protected your candidates are by the mainstream media.

I would think that you guys would have had a wake up call once Trump punched Bill in the mouth and stopped the war on women attacks from the HRC dead in their tracks. But...if there is one recurring theme throughout this cycle it is that those who are wrong are incapable of realizing that they are wrong and that the entire paradgim has changed.

So...you will say what you have been saying for months about Trump and then finally concede that you are wrong but that you don't think it will play in the general. And then that will happen for months and months and then eventually you will realize that there are a lot of bigots in the Democrat party who voted for Trump.

 

bet?

 

[Shula-holic]

i'll take all 1-1 bets trump against hillary.   site mail me

Careful, I got perma-banned once for offering to take action.

 

[SIDA!]

Possibly.  64% are living pay check to pay check.  Tapping into those votes will win the election, not climate change.

Exactly. Clue to the Dems. White working class whites who have both parents working full time just to tread water and can't ever get breathing room don't give two ####s about the next supreme court justice, supporting illegals and whether or not a man with a penis should be allowed to use the girls bathroom.

 

[Pumpnick]

i'm cool.  i had one too 

 

[Pumpnick]

these people talk massive #### and won't bet $1 on it

 

[Zegras11]

Exactly. Clue to the Dems. White working class whites who have both parents working full time just to tread water and can't ever get breathing room don't give two ####s about the next supreme court justice, supporting illegals and whether or not a man with a penis should be allowed to use the girls bathroom.

It's all of the working class, not just whites.

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

Well this is getting very serious.

Cruz and Kasich have a less than 5% chance of getting the nom. Rubio not much better. That leaves Trump as the almost certain candidate and presidential favorite. Hillary has more baggage than Heathrow and Bernie is unelectable.

Trump can only blow it in 2 ways.

a) A terrible VP choice. I would seriously expect Trumps bluster and bs to fall on deaf ears in congress and his odds of impeachment will be higher than the usual incoming president. He has no allies in congress and a solid and reputable VP like Kasich will make it easier to throw him under the bus when he does or says one stupid thing too much. Its all fun and games now, but when the #### gets real he will be thrown overboard. A poor VP choice like that moron Palin and he will lose support from those who will hold their nose and vote republican.

b) Too much policy or details on what he'll do. If he can keep it vague and promise to make America great ot build a wall etc he cannot scare his converted voters.

Its a scary world when this man is the favorite to be President. Hillary will not be able to defeat him one on one unless Trump does one of the 2 above. The election is Trumps to lose. 

Good luck American and the rest of the world. You're gonna need it.

 

[Loan Sharks]

At this point I think he is going to win the whole thing.  I have been so wrong about this whole thing - thought he would either quit months, melted down, or been bounced - so my opinion isn't worth a whole lot. My state doesn't matter in terms of picking president, Hillary will win comfortably.

Feel sorry for you folks in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida wherever else plays out as the battleground states. You guys are going to get carpet bombed with ads like no other. It is going to be madness.

Here's the thing General that is going to make peoples heads spin. Most Americans haven't seen or read anything about this race at all little snippets at most. It is kind of like Fantasy Football we think it is huge but it isn't. These political shows are not mainstream entertainment. 

When this gets down to Hill versus Trump he is going to shift so hard it is going to break necks. He is going to be the scooping up the Bernie Bros and dealing with hispanics and blacks and just assault hill.... bad. You guys act like he is a moron. He is trying to make a deal with hardcore politically active white republicans. Once he has sealed that deal he doesn't have to be extreme anymore, they are his, they aren't voting D no matter what. Then he goes right for the moderates and everyone else. His couple of missteps are going to be distant memories. He is going to shove that sense of country and optimism right up Hillaries ###. 

 

[Pumpnick]

Well this is getting very serious.

Cruz and Kasich have a less than 5% chance of getting the nom. Rubio not much better. That leaves Trump as the almost certain candidate and presidential favorite. Hillary has more baggage than Heathrow and Bernie is unelectable.

Trump can only blow it in 2 ways.

a) A terrible VP choice. I would seriously expect Trumps bluster and bs to fall on deaf ears in congress and his odds of impeachment will be higher than the usual incoming president. He has no allies in congress and a solid and reputable VP like Kasich will make it easier to throw him under the bus when he does or says one stupid thing too much. Its all fun and games now, but when the #### gets real he will be thrown overboard. A poor VP choice like that moron Palin and he will lose support from those who will hold their nose and vote republican.

b) Too much policy or details on what he'll do. If he can keep it vague and promise to make America great ot build a wall etc he cannot scare his converted voters.

Its a scary world when this man is the favorite to be President. Hillary will not be able to defeat him one on one unless Trump does one of the 2 above. The election is Trumps to lose. 

Good luck American and the rest of the world. You're gonna need it.

bet?

 

[SIDA!]

these people talk massive #### and won't bet $1 on it

Why would I take an even money bet when I can get better odds at a sportsbook? And people say the Trump supporters are idiots.

 

[SIDA!]

It's all of the working class, not just whites.

Oh. I agree and why I have said Trump with crush with the working class Dems.

But since I have been repeatedly rebuffed about how Trump is just a racist I was just going to focus on whites. They are still stuck in la-la-la land.

 

[Pumpnick]

you seemed like it was a sure thing. i guess you really don't 

 

[Pumpnick]

so trump supporters think he will win, but will not bet for him to win.

 

[SIDA!]

you seemed like it was a sure thing. i guess you really don't 

I don't think you understand betting and odds or arbitrage.

 

 

[SIDA!]

so trump supporters think he will win, but will not bet for him to win.

Will all the HRC/lefties who talk about how dumb Trump supporters are come in here and save this guy. He is embarrassing you all.

 

[Pumpnick]

if theres one thing i understand its betting