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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

Pumpnick said:
u opened your mouth, i offered a bet.  you won't do it.  thats it
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Actually...I touched a keyboard. But..I love the fact that you are so convinced Hillary is going to win. Since you are such a fan of betting...I will bet you $1,000 that she doesn't win. If she loses...you only have to pay me $10,000. 

Deal? 

 
John Maddens Lunchbox said:
Well this is getting very serious.

Cruz and Kasich have a less than 5% chance of getting the nom. Rubio not much better. That leaves Trump as the almost certain candidate and presidential favorite. Hillary has more baggage than Heathrow and Bernie is unelectable.

Trump can only blow it in 2 ways.

a) A terrible VP choice. I would seriously expect Trumps bluster and bs to fall on deaf ears in congress and his odds of impeachment will be higher than the usual incoming president. He has no allies in congress and a solid and reputable VP like Kasich will make it easier to throw him under the bus when he does or says one stupid thing too much. Its all fun and games now, but when the #### gets real he will be thrown overboard. A poor VP choice like that moron Palin and he will lose support from those who will hold their nose and vote republican.

b) Too much policy or details on what he'll do. If he can keep it vague and promise to make America great ot build a wall etc he cannot scare his converted voters.

Its a scary world when this man is the favorite to be President. Hillary will not be able to defeat him one on one unless Trump does one of the 2 above. The election is Trumps to lose. 

Good luck American and the rest of the world. You're gonna need it.
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Pumpnick said:
bet?
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Dude, you are making a fool of yourself.

There is plenty that can go wrong for Trump, Hillary or even Rubio before we get to a 2 horse race. Betting 1/1 on anyone is only something an idiot would do right now. 

I'm about as far from a Trump fan as you would find, but the Republican nomination is almost certainly his. It would be nice if the republican organisation would focus on removing him instead of being the freedom loving party that loves disenfranchising voters, gerrymandering electorates and interfering in the lifes of women, minorities and anyone else who doesnt agree with their narrow view of the world, but hey you reap what you sow. The Democrats have lurched to the right and are basically old republicans forcing the republicans to head to the far right wing. Only a genuine left wing revival can move the republicans towards the center and a 74 year old socialist isnt the right man to do it. 

Trump is taking advantage of a pissed off electorate that wants genuine change, but doesnt know how to get it. We will see, if he can survive the political machinations that will surely descend upon him over the next 8 months, whether he can affect change in Washington, but he doesnt have the patience, intelligence or fortitude to overcome the crap any succefful candidate will have to overcome.

 
Thunderlips said:
If you're a legit Republican....you got to be sick to your stomach about Trump.  
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I think Trump might represent the GOP version of Bill Clinton, Clinton was never really a democrat, he was just an act of desperation, a bridge to get the white house back for the party, which was better than not having the white house at all.  Republicans that feel really beaten up over the past 12 years might welcome anyone at this point just to end democrat control of the executive. Clinton wins and is a successful president and then they use that to help move the nation to the left later on.  Maybe you can do that with Trump.

 
Short of Hillary getting indicted she will be the nominee for the Democrats..

And short of Cruz or Rubio dropping and the other one actually making a run at delegates, Trump will be the Republican candidate.

So.. If Bloomberg does jump in.. Does that hurt Trump, Hillary.. or both so no big deal :confused:

 
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Riversco said:
I think Trump might represent the GOP version of Bill Clinton, Clinton was never really a democrat, he was just an act of desperation, a bridge to get the white house back for the party, which was better than not having the white house at all.  Republicans that feel really beaten up over the past 12 years might welcome anyone at this point just to end democrat control of the executive. Clinton wins and is a successful president and then they use that to help move the nation to the left later on.  Maybe you can do that with Trump.
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I agree with that to a point ,but IIRC (and correct me if I'm wrong) Clinton didn't eviscerate and neutralize the existing Democratic Party/Machine to get there.  I don't remember there being a strong, already established heirarchy that was poised to win when Clinton hit the scene....and if there was, I think he quickly co-opted it.  The Republicans had all the pieces in place; Media outlets, money, two or three young(Ryan/Rubio/Cruz) traditional Republican politicans, political control(Senate/Governors Mansions) and Obama and/or Clinton fatigue to make serious inroads this election cycle.....and Trump destroyed all of that.

Trump has rendered Roger Ailes,the Koch Brothers, The Bush Family and Conservative talk radio (Glenn Beck is sticking to his guns in regards to his hate for Trump but his fans are abandoning him....but Hannity and Limbaugh are playing both sides and exposing their hypocrisy for political access ) impotent......and there's nothing they can do to stop him now. 

 
If the Trumpkins are intent on destroying the churchie base of the party, then I guess that's the cloud's silver lining. Maybe the next time Republicans won't run a bunch of evangelicals and will instead focus on solving the country's problems (hint: the country's problem isn't that it's changing in a lot of ways).

 
snogger said:
Short of Hillary getting indicted she will be the nominee for the Democrats..

And short of Cruz or Rubio dropping and the other one actually making a run at delegates, Trump will be the Republican candidate.

So.. If Bloomberg does jump in.. Does that hurt Trump, Hillary.. or both so no big deal :confused:
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Both but I would think it would hurt Hillary more.

 
So almost half of Republicans support Trump now?  I'm about 60% sure I'm just having a really long, weird dream. 

 
Guys Nevada is a very...interesting electorate. The mountain west areas are full of independent cowboy types. They have a weird anti-govt streak. They are older and more...rugged. 

Its basically trump wet dream. 

 
mr roboto said:
Guys Nevada is a very...interesting electorate. The mountain west areas are full of independent cowboy types. They have a weird anti-govt streak. They are older and more...rugged. 

Its basically trump wet dream. 
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What about South Carolina? A similar sentiment could've been made for Cruz in SC - yet Trump won that too. Easily.

 
snogger said:
Short of Hillary getting indicted she will be the nominee for the Democrats..

And short of Cruz or Rubio dropping and the other one actually making a run at delegates, Trump will be the Republican candidate.

So.. If Bloomberg does jump in.. Does that hurt Trump, Hillary.. or both so no big deal :confused:
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Bloomberg guarantees a Trump presidency. If he is in I think he will split the field to a point where none of the three candidates have the needed electoral votes. When that happens it goes to congress to pick from the top candidates and they are going to pick the R.

 
Third-party candidates rarely win enough electoral votes to send the vote to congress. Ross Perot got 19% of the popular vote but 0 electoral votes, while Clinton won a landslide of electoral votes. In 1912 Teddy Roosevelt won 88 electoral votes as a third-party candidate, but Woodrow Wilson won 435 electoral votes. In 1860 there were 4 political parties vying for the vote, but Lincoln won a majority of electoral votes.

Bloomberg guarantees a Trump presidency. If he is in I think he will split the field to a point where none of the three candidates have the needed electoral votes. When that happens it goes to congress to pick from the top candidates and they are going to pick the R.
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Joe Summer said:
Third-party candidates rarely win enough electoral votes to send the vote to congress. Ross Perot got 19% of the popular vote but 0 electoral votes, while Clinton won a landslide of electoral votes. In 1912 Teddy Roosevelt won 88 electoral votes as a third-party candidate, but Woodrow Wilson won 435 electoral votes. In 1860 there were 4 political parties vying for the vote, but Lincoln won a majority of electoral votes.
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Perot had real momentum though, and then he dropped out and looked like a flake.  The fact he got 19 percent is a miracle.

 
I almost want Trump to win because of all the #### he's going to have to eat. Regardless of who you are Presidenting is a humbling experience. Cult of personality is not going to move his adversaries as much as it does voters.   

 
Smack Tripper said:
Perot had real momentum though, and then he dropped out and looked like a flake.  The fact he got 19 percent is a miracle.
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Until he selected his VP and said VP showed up for a debate.. At which point everyone thought THAT is one step away from the presidency if Perot wins??? :scared:

And I agree.. still shocked he pulled in 19% after that..

 
I don't envision Trump being humbled or admitting any mistakes. He'll continue the bombast, constantly blaming the other side when all of his "deals" fail to happen. ("We had a great deal but Iran backed out, what can I say?" "Don't blame me for gridlock, blame congress for refusing to pass my tremendous laws!") Nothing will ever be his fault.

And actually I think that many of supporters expect this to happen, but they don't care because they're still in "throw the bums out" mode.

I almost want Trump to win because of all the #### he's going to have to eat. Regardless of who you are Presidenting is a humbling experience. Cult of personality is not going to move his adversaries as much as it does voters.
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Joe Summer said:
Third-party candidates rarely win enough electoral votes to send the vote to congress. Ross Perot got 19% of the popular vote but 0 electoral votes, while Clinton won a landslide of electoral votes. In 1912 Teddy Roosevelt won 88 electoral votes as a third-party candidate, but Woodrow Wilson won 435 electoral votes. In 1860 there were 4 political parties vying for the vote, but Lincoln won a majority of electoral votes.
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Forecasting, information and predictive software is more advanced now. Bloomberg will have a idea of his potential support if he enters. I doubt he will throw away all that money unless he has a chance to make a more significant impact than the candidates you cited. I think he goes in and cuts the pie bad, or he doesn't go in at all. 

 
It is starting to get frightening how people are starting to slowly warm to Trump in the general election.

I'm not sure people realize that he's really just a liberal that's hawkish on immigration. His plans to date are more Jimmy Carter than Ronald Reagan.  Of course that assumes you can actually find a policy statement he's issued that's clear.  

 
culdeus said:
It is starting to get frightening how people are starting to slowly warm to Trump in the general election.

I'm not sure people realize that he's really just a liberal that's hawkish on immigration. His plans to date are more Jimmy Carter than Ronald Reagan.  Of course that assumes you can actually find a policy statement he's issued that's clear.  
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Are you sure the American people don't want a liberal who is hawkish on immigration with a strong jobs message?

 
culdeus said:
It is starting to get frightening how people are starting to slowly warm to Trump in the general election.

I'm not sure people realize that he's really just a liberal that's hawkish on immigration. His plans to date are more Jimmy Carter than Ronald Reagan.  Of course that assumes you can actually find a policy statement he's issued that's clear.  
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The electorate, almost always, gets the candidate they deserve. 

 
culdeus said:
Every candidate has a strong jobs message.
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Yeah sure they do. 

Put the Candidate with the message. Katich, Rubio, Trump, Hillary, Bernie, Carson, Cruz

Feel the Bern                                                                                   

Make America great again. 

I don't know 

I don't know

I don't know 

I don't know 

I don't know

 
mr roboto said:
Guys Nevada is a very...interesting electorate. The mountain west areas are full of independent cowboy types. They have a weird anti-govt streak. They are older and more...rugged. 

Its basically trump wet dream. 
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Doesn't really make sense though. Trump isn't a small government candidate.

 
Loan Sharks said:
Yeah sure they do. 

Put the Candidate with the message. Katich, Rubio, Trump, Hillary, Bernie, Carson, Cruz

Feel the Bern                                                                                   

Make America great again. 

I don't know 

I don't know

I don't know 

I don't know 

I don't know
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I suppose the problem is that you only recognize messages that would fit on a bumper sticker.  Without comment, I offer the following candidates' messages on job creation.

Kasich

When John Kasich took office as governor of Ohio in 2011, Ohio had lost 351,000 private sector jobs and was 48th in the nation in job creation. Under his leadership, however, Ohio has enacted jobs-friendly policies that have helped Ohio job-creators get back on their feet and create hundreds of thousands of new private sector jobs. Additionally, Ohio has become a top-ten state for job creation and far outperformed its own historical job creation performance. Wages are growing faster than the national average, the unemployment rate is better than the national rate and under Governor Kasich the number of new businesses created in Ohio has increased every year and is now at record high levels.
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Rubio

To build the most innovation-friendly economy in the world, we must build the most business-friendly economy in the world. Right now we have the exact opposite. The United States has the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world. We have a tax code that punishes American companies for competing in the global economy, and a regulatory system that prevents small businesses — the primary engines of innovation and job creation — from competing against established players.

Marco has a 100 percent rating with both the National Federation of Independent Business and the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council.

How:

  • Reverse the damage President Obama has done by repealing his unconstitutional and illegal executive orders that are hurting job creation.
  • Enact pro-growth, pro-family tax reform that cuts taxes for all businesses to 25 percent and allows all businesses to immediately expense every dollar that they invest in the economy.
  • Resist calls to enact a European-style Value-Added Tax (VAT) and new taxes on the Internet.
  • Put a ceiling on the amount U.S. regulations can cost our economy, allowing businesses to grow without interference from Washington.
  • Modernize higher education to equip workers with the skills they need in the 21st century.
  • Fully utilize our energy resources and embrace the 21st century energy economy.
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Interestingly, I can find a video, but not a jobs plan on the Trump website, but his US China trade reform section at least obliquely refers to job creation.  The cornerstones of his plan appear to be:

1.  Declaring China a currency manipulator and instituting countervailing duties against their imports

2.  Tougher enforcement of IP rights against the Chinese (I'm not sure how he intends to do this), maybe by amending Section 337.

3.  A reduction in the corporate tax rate (I'd wager good money that every Republican candidates' tax plan has this measure).

When I hear Trump supporters declare that Trump will be a jobs President, I never hear a discussion of his proposals.  I hear them say that he'll do so because he "is a businessman and a skilled negotiator" which is just kind of weird and non-responsive, but whatever.

 
shader said:
:lmao:
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Look I grew up in a high desert town in northern AZ. I watched the coverage of the Nevada caucus. The types of people from those regions motivated to go to a GOP caucus aren't your suburban big business Republicans. And read any news story on Trump supporters. They're more independent, angry and less educated than other candidates' supporters. 

 
culdeus said:
It is starting to get frightening how people are starting to slowly warm to Trump in the general election.

I'm not sure people realize that he's really just a liberal that's hawkish on immigration. His plans to date are more Jimmy Carter than Ronald Reagan.  Of course that assumes you can actually find a policy statement he's issued that's clear.  
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Trump is winning because the rest of them are the same ole #### that does nothing once they get elected. People are finally waking up to it....at least the smart people. Dumbasses vote to keep the same losers in power.

 
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