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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

Riversco said:
Government isn't just the white house. The republicans control congress.  Maybe its not an idea we're not used to because the last three presidents all had congress when taking office, but Hillary wouldn't have an agenda.  She would have no first 100 days.  She would enter office very weak and facing empowered opposition.  We haven't seen that since 1988 but that's what it looks like.  
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There has been some concern that if Trump is GOP nominee, it could cost them the House. 

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
That's neither a compelling case nor an alternative. It needs to be a case FOR someone. Not "anyone", but a single, specific, named candidate.

And of course it isn't.
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Completely disagree.  Trump is an incompetent buffoon. You know it.  I know it.  I don't have to vote for anyone that doesn't represent my vision of a President.  But, I can absolutely vote against someone who is, in every way, antithetical to it.

 
If anyone is interested Fox business is showing the Libertarian debate tonight and tomorrow.Repeat 1st showing later tonight.Could be interesting.

 
joffer said:
If someone offered you even money to take Hillary against the field right now would you take it?
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Of course. She's like -250 right now. You would have to be really bad at math not to do that. 

 
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cobalt_27 said:
Completely disagree.  Trump is an incompetent buffoon. You know it.  I know it.  I don't have to vote for anyone that doesn't represent my vision of a President.  But, I can absolutely vote against someone who is, in every way, antithetical to it.
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I don't even know all those words you used but I'm pretty sure I agree with you.

 
Riversco said:
To me Trump is that guy that is used to winning but will pout and quit if he thinks he is just wasting his time. A guy like Trump is usually obsessed with being efficient.   If he solidifies 15%-20% behind Hillary in the polling, I think he decides the general election is simply a waste of 5 months of his life and drops out on his own, accusing the GOP is dirty tactics on his way out the door to save face.  Then he moves on to other projects.

The GOP would immediately announce a brokered convention in order to prevent Cruz from being the nominee.  Then it would probably be one of Romney, Kasich, or Ryan. Kasich probably winds up on the ticket somewhere because they'd want SOMEONE on the ticket that actually ran for president in 2016.
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I agree with this sentiment.  He had too much of a good thing going before he began his campaign, so it would be easy for him to say, "eff it, this ain't worth it."   

 
Can't remember if I came here to declare it over for Trump but doing so now just in case.  They are not gonna let him have it.  Maybe if he hits 1300 delegates before convention (he won't) but there is no way for him - the die is cast for him to get screwed.  And oh well to that.

The intrigue to me is whether Cruz can get the job done Ballot 2.  My guess is that more likely than not he can.  Less possible that he can do so on ballot 3 but not out of the question.  Once they screw Trump though and say rules is rules to do the same to Cruz really isn't such a big leap.

I realize Kasich is staying in banking on this scenario but if it's down to that point they'll look past him on the road to compromise - much more likely a hard right back bencher gets it.

But Trump?  Donezo.

-QG

 
To make this political season even a bigger :tfp: then it already is...

Imagine.. Trump loses in Wisconsin on Tuesday and most of North Dakotas delegates go to Cruz..
Trump wakes up Wednesday morning realizing there is no way he can get the delegates needed and knows the chances of winning a contested convention are very slim...

So he sends a big FU at the GOP on Wednesday afternoon as he withdraws his name from the GOP nomination and runs as an independent.. 

 
This is the moment where sharp bettors go and look at ways to get money on people that are not the three in the race right now.  Because it ain't gonna be any of them.

 
culdeus said:
This is the moment where sharp bettors go and look at ways to get money on people that are not the three in the race right now.  Because it ain't gonna be any of them.
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I've been wanting to put money on Romney for a couple weeks. Right now, I think Rubio might be more likely. The problem with Romney and Ryan is they don't have any of organization in place needed to run. Part of the primary run is winning delegates, but another part is building an organization of workers/volunteers. Rubio could get that up and running much quicker than Mitt or Romney. Rubio already has delegates. While Rubio never broke through in the primaries, he still likely kept a strong likeability number. He wasn't a lot of people's choice for #1, but if people ranked candidates instead of just chose 1, he would likely have been finishing consistently near the top where Cruz and Trump would likely have been marked last as much as first. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I've been wanting to put money on Romney for a couple weeks. Right now, I think Rubio might be more likely. The problem with Romney and Ryan is they don't have any of organization in place needed to run. Part of the primary run is winning delegates, but another part is building an organization of workers/volunteers. Rubio could get that up and running much quicker than Mitt or Romney. Rubio already has delegates. While Rubio never broke through in the primaries, he still likely kept a strong likeability number. He wasn't a lot of people's choice for #1, but if people ranked candidates instead of just chose 1, he would likely have been finishing consistently near the top where Cruz and Trump would likely have been marked last as much as first. 
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See I just don't agree with this issue here.  Rubio did not really have that strong an organization.  He wasn't super well funded even as people started dropping out.  I don't think you just need a nationwide campaign.  There are only really 8-10 contested states.  Focus your efforts on those using super PAC money for an established name candidate and you have all you need.  

The question is what happens if both Cruz AND Trump run off ticket?  

I still think the ultimate nominee isn't anyone that's run for anything recently.   The short list is likely out there.  You'd do well to pair it with someone on the ballot already, even, gasp Jeb! to get his PAC money onboard.

 
RBM said:
Wouldn't say that it's a guarantee until he loses NY or Cali. He needs to hit that 50% mark in NY. 
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Thus the "Almost"  ;)

But last I saw California is going to be very close, and it is "shared" delegates, rather then all so seems more and more likely each week that he will be short of having enough delegates.

 
As one who typically avoids the political process but has interest from afar, I've got a potentially stupid point/observation I'd be curious about...

One perception that seems to hold true especially on the Republican side has been a gravitation towards candidates principled or who espouses his/her values as a key tenant of running his/her platform. Whether the base holistically agrees with the entirety of the platform, they still would prefer someone who holds to his/her guns. 

What I see in Trumps gaffes this week is someone who appears to say his governing method is a thumb in the wind; something conservatives used to blast Bill Clinton for during his presidency. If I'm Ted Cruz, why not use this opportunity to change Donald's tactic of "A vote for ____ is a vote for ____/vote wasted" and tell the conservatives that a vote for Trump is as good as a vote for what they previously espoused to hate (and/or Hillary if he wants to go there)?

 
Did my part today to vote for anybody but Trump.. Held my Nose and selected Cruz...

Come November I'm 99.9% I'll be voting 3rd party, unless of course the GOP uses the Convention to put forward a real candidate, as I can't in any way vote for Hillary or Bernie.

BTW.. There are HUGE advantages to living just outside city limits..
I parked my Car just as a song was starting on SiriusXM, walked in and voted, came out and started the car and the song was just finishing. :thumbup:

 
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I can see where Trump gets shafted by the GOP and a "brokered" convention so Trump quits the RNC, and starts campaigning for Hillary. 

 
SHIZNITTTT said:
I can see where Trump gets shafted by the GOP and a "brokered" convention so Trump quits the RNC, and starts campaigning for Hillary. 
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FIne with me.  If Hillary could then select Tom Brady as her running mate, I could concentrate all of my hate on one tiny little corner of the world.

 
SHIZNITTTT said:
I can see where Trump gets shafted by the GOP and a "brokered" convention so Trump quits the RNC, and starts campaigning for Hillary. 
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I'm picturing this, with Hillary flailing her arms wildly while screaming, "I DISAVOW HIS SUPPORT! I DISAVOW!" And Trump's pro-Hillary rallies just become more and more ludicrous, with pyrotechnics and scantily-clad Hillary Dancers doing leg-kicks while Sarah Palin runs around stage in a pantsuit and making airplane noises just because.

 
MSNBC acting like this is a done deal- Trump will not get to 1237, and Ted Cruz will, on the second ballot, be the nominee. 

Hard to believe...

 
Cruz predicted to win Wisconsin. . Yea for us anti-trumpers  :clap:

Now it's just by how much.. hoping 10% or more. :popcorn:

 
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CNN calling it after only 6% returns in...Isn't that a little premature?  Trump climbed from 28% to 35.6% in the few minutes I have been watching...

 
timschochet said:
MSNBC acting like this is a done deal- Trump will not get to 1237, and Ted Cruz will, on the second ballot, be the nominee. 

Hard to believe...
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its like the GOP doesn't want to win the election.  Putting up Cruz as the nominee is suicide.  He has zero chance.  

 
Cruz speech..."sanctuary cities will end".

His religious fanbase goes wild.Whoo yeah! Death to the wicked brown people!

No disconnect on religious charity values there.

 
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