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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

The reason that some of the rank and file R's aren't walking with Trump right now is because they're getting their talking points from their higher ups who don't have any monetary hooks into Trump. When he meets with the established R powerbrokers and accepts their money is when they'll back him.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
National polls just don't mean all that much in this primary races when it's state to state and governed by momentum - just ask President Giuliani.

If Trump's organizing really is that poor it's plausible for Cruz to get a surprisingly large win in Iowa. Say he beat Trump by double digits - that would be a big deal (and get through to the SEC primaries which is really the heart of Cruz's plan). New Hampshire likes to spite Iowa, so it may not really help him in NH, but it could enable a dogpile on Trump that brings the others back into in NH.

Everyone likes to pronounce Christie and Kasich (and hell, even Jeb) totally dead - but at this point you can't really do that until New Hampshire is over. New Hampshire likes to surprise and likes to break late. I can't stand Christie - really a guy who ultimately wants to be President so he is someone important and no core convictions whatsoever - but NH is small enough that he could pop the surprise. Same is true of Kasich who is polling much better in NH than overall. McCain was absolutely buried in the polls before his shock win in New Hampshire on late momentum and he was able to carry that through all the way to the nomination.

Side note - does Jeb! think the Graham endorsement adds a 0 to his total changing his 5% to 50%? Graham might be the first case of a rat jumping onto a sinking ship.

-QG
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Pretty much agree with everything you wrote here.

Btw, good catch on McCain. McCain was literally left for dead coming out of Iowa. EVERYBODY thought he was done. Pretty spectacular situation and still irks me that he was able to pull that off.

If I was a Trump supporter, and I am leaning that way, my concern would be Iowa. He doesn't need to win Iowa, but he need to make a good showing. Iowa is so unique with its caucus format and hard core GOP religious conservatives that one should never expect a guy like Trump to win it. But, he can't get blown out.

Trump has been leading the pack now almost since he announced. Nearly wire to wire, anyway. He can claim to have won the debates because it is subjective. Now we are getting to real black and white math. A loss in Iowa would be the "first loss" of his campaign. And it can feed into the questions some folks have about his electability if he gets smoked in his own party's primary.

I have no idea what his ground game is out there. But I would imagine that it isn't very good no matter what he says.

A big loss in Iowa could really swing the momentum towards Cruz or another candidate. I think after New Hampshire (assuming Trump dominates) it is going to be a dogfight between Cruz and Trump for the South and then at that point it will become a question of who, if any, can get the delegates to avoid a brokered convention.

 
It's almost too late for the R's to "William Wallace" Trump as A) none of the persepctive candidates are very likeable and B) he's done a good job of making them look as assinine as he does.

If I'm the R's....I'm pleading for Rubio to sink into the woodwork so he won't be tainted for the next POTUS cycle.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
Howard Dean probably had an even bigger national lead in 2004 and Iowa and the "Dean Scream" tanked his bid. Or people just had second thoughts when it came time to caucus or vote. So Trump obviously isn't inevitable. The difference is that Trump has already had something like 20 potential Dean Scream moments and none of them have mattered. If suggesting that the female reporter who questions you is on the rag isn't going to hurt your polling it's hard to imagine what will. He'll have to murder a hobo or something.
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The Dean Scream didn't tank his bid - it just finished him off for good in terms of any prospect for a comeback. He finished a very poor 3rd there (Kerry 38%, Edwards 32%, Dean 18%). It's considered that the relative inexperience of his organizers was one of the factors that really cost him in Iowa.

Interesting side note - 12 days before those caucuses the polling in Iowa was Dean 30%, Gephardt 23%, Kerry 18%, Edwards 11%. Things can change really fast.

-QG
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That suggests that Iowa normally matters. It doesn't. Lots of candidates have lost Iowa big. Dean was going to New Hampshire where he had a large lead, but the constant stories suggested that losing Iowa for Dean was somehow significant (and so damaging that it had made him unhinged). It shouldn't have been. Losing New Hampshire (in his backyard) is what killed Dean.

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
Howard Dean probably had an even bigger national lead in 2004 and Iowa and the "Dean Scream" tanked his bid. Or people just had second thoughts when it came time to caucus or vote. So Trump obviously isn't inevitable. The difference is that Trump has already had something like 20 potential Dean Scream moments and none of them have mattered. If suggesting that the female reporter who questions you is on the rag isn't going to hurt your polling it's hard to imagine what will. He'll have to murder a hobo or something.
Click to expand...
The Dean Scream didn't tank his bid - it just finished him off for good in terms of any prospect for a comeback. He finished a very poor 3rd there (Kerry 38%, Edwards 32%, Dean 18%). It's considered that the relative inexperience of his organizers was one of the factors that really cost him in Iowa.

Interesting side note - 12 days before those caucuses the polling in Iowa was Dean 30%, Gephardt 23%, Kerry 18%, Edwards 11%. Things can change really fast.

-QG
Click to expand...
That suggests that Iowa normally matters. It doesn't. Lots of candidates have lost Iowa big. Dean was going to New Hampshire where he had a large lead, but the constant stories suggested that losing Iowa for Dean was somehow significant (and so damaging that it had made him unhinged). It shouldn't have been. Losing New Hampshire (in his backyard) is what killed Dean.
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Iowa matters. The early primaries are all expectation games. You don't need to win, but you do need to exceed (or in some case match) expectations.

 
Yankee23Fan said:
roadkill1292 said:
Yankee23Fan said:
This GOP continues ot be a travishamockery of biblical proportions.
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But won't you be glad to see the end of Political Correctness should one of them win?
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:lol: Great platform for a President. I won't be politically correct! Yeah!
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I'm pretty sure that Trump supporters think that nothing they say after he's elected will ever be criticized. Not being able to speak your mind is a huge problem, you see, because of other people speaking their minds after you do. It wasn't always like this.

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
Howard Dean probably had an even bigger national lead in 2004 and Iowa and the "Dean Scream" tanked his bid. Or people just had second thoughts when it came time to caucus or vote. So Trump obviously isn't inevitable. The difference is that Trump has already had something like 20 potential Dean Scream moments and none of them have mattered. If suggesting that the female reporter who questions you is on the rag isn't going to hurt your polling it's hard to imagine what will. He'll have to murder a hobo or something.
Click to expand...
Good riddance. Hobos are losers. I prefer vagabonds who don't ride trains.

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
QuizGuy66 said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
Howard Dean probably had an even bigger national lead in 2004 and Iowa and the "Dean Scream" tanked his bid. Or people just had second thoughts when it came time to caucus or vote. So Trump obviously isn't inevitable. The difference is that Trump has already had something like 20 potential Dean Scream moments and none of them have mattered. If suggesting that the female reporter who questions you is on the rag isn't going to hurt your polling it's hard to imagine what will. He'll have to murder a hobo or something.
Click to expand...
The Dean Scream didn't tank his bid - it just finished him off for good in terms of any prospect for a comeback. He finished a very poor 3rd there (Kerry 38%, Edwards 32%, Dean 18%). It's considered that the relative inexperience of his organizers was one of the factors that really cost him in Iowa.

Interesting side note - 12 days before those caucuses the polling in Iowa was Dean 30%, Gephardt 23%, Kerry 18%, Edwards 11%. Things can change really fast.

-QG
Click to expand...
That suggests that Iowa normally matters. It doesn't. Lots of candidates have lost Iowa big. Dean was going to New Hampshire where he had a large lead, but the constant stories suggested that losing Iowa for Dean was somehow significant (and so damaging that it had made him unhinged). It shouldn't have been. Losing New Hampshire (in his backyard) is what killed Dean.
Click to expand...
Dean's loss in Iowa though enabled his campaign to be seen as an undisciplined mess (fairly or not). It is true that Iowa instant a very good predictor in most instances (looking at the winners list, especially on the R side, proves this). But as a moment in time it might allow others to flip the script on Trump.

It is true though that if Trump is able to win New Hampshire after getting thumped in Iowa that he'll have a good comeback narrative - it's probably the worst case for establishment types that are wringing their hands.

But if Cruz gets even a modest bump in support in New Hampshire and the split in the establishment remains he could poll in the 20s there and get a shock second place. That might be enough to get him all the mo' he needs.

Expectations expectations expectations :)

-QG

 
Ditka Butkus said:
timschochet said:
And Christie: "Mr President we're coming to kick your rear end out of the White House!" Totally classless. It's like Trump is an infection poisoning the rest of them.
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Is finishing your second term considered being kicked out? ....What a silly thing for Christie to say.
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Kind of brave of Christie to say, huh? Even knowing that if he were eligible, Obama would win a third term in a landslide. Real tough Christie. Real tough.

 
The moment that made me yell at the tv last night was when Carson derided the divisiveness in the country. He said "You can't go 5 posts in the comments section of a news article without seeing bickering and ridicule" or something like that. Then he says it wouldn't be that way if Judaeo-christian values were being practiced. Is he deaf? How about he open his ears and listen to what's being said by the people on stage standing up there with him. The demonization of political opponents by the candidates is the cause of this chasm. These people will say anything to obtain power regardless of the consequences to the country. It's irresponsible. It never used to be this bad. You'd think Hillary or Obama were evil people hellbent on destroying the country. They're not. It's not a republican only phenomenon either. The democrats do it too. These people make it so nasty and personal that of course you have this huge divide in this country. It's not good vs. evil. It's just different visions on how to proceed. If these clowns would tone down the rhetoric maybe we'd see some of this gridlock subside. Man, Christie and Cruz are the worst when it comes to this. Fiorina too. Will just demonize and say anything if they think it'll give them even the slightest poll bump. Pathetic.

 
Agree 100%. Add in toxic one sided media intended only for followers of a specific party and that's why we are where we are.

 
The Daily Show gave Rand Paul his debate opportunity, which I thought was pretty cool.

Rand needs to be up there next time, enough Jeb and Fatty McJersey.

 
Smack Tripper said:
The loon from Saskatoon is taking on water with this birthplace stuff
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Seriously. If a person was born in Moscow or Tehran (not on a US base or holding) and their father was a Russian or Iranian citizen...

They would NEVER (ever ever) be considered a USofA natural born citizen or for the presidency. Regardless of the mothers US citizenship.

 
I'm watching Rachel Maddow right now, and there's a guy from the Washington Post reporting that the Republican donor class (millionaires, billionaires, etc.) have resigned themselves to the fact that it's going to be either Trump or Cruz, probably Trump.

This is really going to happen. I still can't ####### believe it.

 
BigSteelThrill said:
timschochet said:
RBM said:
timschochet said:
I'm watching Rachel Maddow right now
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
Click to expand...
I watch Fox too, RBM. And CNN. You don't ever watch MSNBC?
Click to expand...
That's a very liberal trait (multiple sources, including those that conflict). You may be asking for too much.
Click to expand...
No, not really. For every liberal like Tim there are 5 that are like TGunz, who slurp nothing but MSNBC and Obama talking points, never thinking further than what they are told by their liberal masters.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
MaxThreshold said:
BigSteelThrill said:
timschochet said:
RBM said:
timschochet said:
I'm watching Rachel Maddow right now
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
Click to expand...
I watch Fox too, RBM. And CNN. You don't ever watch MSNBC?
Click to expand...
That's a very liberal trait (multiple sources, including those that conflict). You may be asking for too much.
Click to expand...
No, not really. For every liberal like Tim there are 5 that are like TGunz, who slurp nothing but MSNBC and Obama talking points, never thinking further than what they are told by their liberal masters.
Click to expand...
:lmao:

 
sho nuff said:
MaxThreshold said:
BigSteelThrill said:
timschochet said:
RBM said:
timschochet said:
I'm watching Rachel Maddow right now
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
Click to expand...
I watch Fox too, RBM. And CNN. You don't ever watch MSNBC?
Click to expand...
That's a very liberal trait (multiple sources, including those that conflict). You may be asking for too much.
Click to expand...
No, not really. For every liberal like Tim there are 5 that are like TGunz, who slurp nothing but MSNBC and Obama talking points, never thinking further than what they are told by their liberal masters.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Don't laugh. Max pours through the NYT on weekends and listens to NPR religiously on his commute.

 
MaxThreshold said:
BigSteelThrill said:
timschochet said:
RBM said:
timschochet said:
I'm watching Rachel Maddow right now
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
Click to expand...
I watch Fox too, RBM. And CNN. You don't ever watch MSNBC?
Click to expand...
That's a very liberal trait (multiple sources, including those that conflict). You may be asking for too much.
Click to expand...
No, not really. For every liberal like Tim there are 5 that are like TGunz, who slurp nothing but MSNBC and Obama talking points, never thinking further than what they are told by their liberal masters.
Click to expand...
How often do you watch MSNBC.. you know, so you can recognize said talking points?

Also, could we get a definitive list of the liberal masters in this world?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
the moops said:
sho nuff said:
MaxThreshold said:
BigSteelThrill said:
timschochet said:
RBM said:
timschochet said:
I'm watching Rachel Maddow right now
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
Click to expand...
I watch Fox too, RBM. And CNN. You don't ever watch MSNBC?
Click to expand...
That's a very liberal trait (multiple sources, including those that conflict). You may be asking for too much.
Click to expand...
No, not really. For every liberal like Tim there are 5 that are like TGunz, who slurp nothing but MSNBC and Obama talking points, never thinking further than what they are told by their liberal masters.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Don't laugh. Max pours through the NYT on weekends and listens to NPR religiously on his commute.
Click to expand...
I'm sure you're hitting the WSJ and listening to Limbaugh too.

 
MaxThreshold said:
the moops said:
sho nuff said:
MaxThreshold said:
BigSteelThrill said:
timschochet said:
RBM said:
timschochet said:
I'm watching Rachel Maddow right now
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
Click to expand...
I watch Fox too, RBM. And CNN. You don't ever watch MSNBC?
Click to expand...
That's a very liberal trait (multiple sources, including those that conflict). You may be asking for too much.
Click to expand...
No, not really. For every liberal like Tim there are 5 that are like TGunz, who slurp nothing but MSNBC and Obama talking points, never thinking further than what they are told by their liberal masters.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Don't laugh. Max pours through the NYT on weekends and listens to NPR religiously on his commute.
Click to expand...
I'm sure you're hitting the WSJ and listening to Limbaugh too.
Click to expand...
Limbaugh is actually still a thing?

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Is Jeb not even sniffing the nomination more embarrassing to the Bush family than W's presidency?
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It's a reflection of the losers before him. Bush Sr. sucked. Bush Jr. sucked as bad as any president history (-40% in the S&P, -48% in NAZ, for example). Who in their right mind would sign up for round 3? I like my money.

 
MaxThreshold said:
lod01 said:
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Is Jeb not even sniffing the nomination more embarrassing to the Bush family than W's presidency?
Click to expand...
It's a reflection of the losers before him. Bush Sr. sucked. Bush Jr. sucked as bad as any president history (-40% in the S&P, -48% in NAZ, for example). Who in their right mind would sign up for round 3? I like my money.
Click to expand...
Losers before him like Obama. Can't forget him either.
Click to expand...
A loser as well but a loser that was in office while my $ increased by +100%. I'll take the guy that was in office AND my account was growing.

 
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