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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (2 Viewers)

I really thought Trump would fade. Now, he only has to beat the youngster. Cruz's schtick is done.  Rubio has to go to war with The Donald Mano y Mano. 

 
Judge Smails said:
I really thought Trump would fade. Now, he only has to beat the youngster. Cruz's schtick is done.  Rubio has to go to war with The Donald Mano y Mano. 
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Do you find it interesting or noteworthy that trump hasn't really gone after the guy from Florida or Ohio?

 
If trump beats rubio in FL and Cruz in Tx, it may be time for them to drop out.  Then it will be Kasich v Trump, with Carson getting his 6 %....

 
bud29 said:
He did say a few things about the other guy from Florida...
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Yep.  He was the perfect establishment foil for him and he beat that drum over and over again. I don't think a front runner ever got destroyed as quickly as that.  Amazing. 

 
There's no way Trump is inevitable at this point. Jeb just dropped out.  He was polling at around 8%. Trump is getting exactly zero of those votes. The people not in the Trump camp now are less likely to back him then whoever is left standing against him.

 
SIDA! said:
Yep.  He was the perfect establishment foil for him and he beat that drum over and over again. I don't think a front runner ever got destroyed as quickly as that.  Amazing. 
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I know the question has been asked about there being something personal between Trump, but not really answered. It just seemed Trump's barbs towards Jeb were so visceral. With Cruz, Trump was giving him the verbal equivalent of a wedgie, whereas every line directed at Jeb had a twisting-of-the-knife sense to it. 

 
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Trump isn't inevitable, but he's clearly the favorite. 

I don't think Kasich would agree to be his VP. It is my belief (and my hope) that decent Republicans, of which Kasich is one, regard Trunp as beond the pale and will not associate themselves with him. 

 
Willie Neslon said:
There's no way Trump is inevitable at this point. Jeb just dropped out.  He was polling at around 8%. Trump is getting exactly zero of those votes. The people not in the Trump camp now are less likely to back him then whoever is left standing against him.
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True, but Jeb was only polling about 1% in Nevada. Beyond that I think more of Jeb's previous support could end up going to Kasich instead of automatically lining up behind Rubio.  

 
Willie Neslon said:
There's no way Trump is inevitable at this point. Jeb just dropped out.  He was polling at around 8%. Trump is getting exactly zero of those votes. The people not in the Trump camp now are less likely to back him then whoever is left standing against him.
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2% to Rubio, 1% each to Trump, Cruz, Carson, & Kasich.  Remaining 2% undecided.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I posted in the Trump thread but I did a quick delegate count and projection. Would like to see where my numbers are off or who thinks otherwise who has done the delegate walk/count. 

GOP Exploit/Avoid: Delegate Count update and projections from here...lot of MOP math so you might need a cold adult beverage. 

On March 1st, roughly 591 delegates are up for grabs. Texas alone is 155 and I would bet Ted Cruz will win that state, too bad he can't win them all. In fact none of the Mar 1st elections will be winner take all states or Nevada the week before. 

-Trump holds a healthy lead in many of the states heading to the polls in less than 10 days. Even with Bush bowing out, Rubio is not likely to win by a landslide to gobble up delegates, they are going to be split up a bunch. 

-Trump is running at about 33-38% but give him 1/3. I gave about 30% to Rubio, 20-25% to Cruz

After March 1 it will look something like this. 

Trump 250

Rubio 150

Cruz 140...wins his state but falls behind Rubio will be the story
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I think you're about 100 votes short, with most of those likely going to Trump. Some of the March 1 polls are old but if they hold like they currently are, I think it will be closer to:

Trump - 375

Cruz - 205

Rubio - 90

I could see Rubio and Cruz swap some votes but I don't think Trump will lose many.

While there aren't any WTA primaries on March 1, there are 7 hybrids with some of them having back door WTA (or most) possibilities. Specifically, for Trump, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee are setting up to produce outcomes closer to a South Carolina finish than to a proportional finish. Each of those has a 20% threshold to receive delegates. If Trump is the only one above 20%, as he was in the most current Alabama and Tennessee polls, he'll win nearly all of the delegates, despite only pulling ~35% of the vote. A surge by Rubio in Georgia could actually help Trump, driving down Cruz below the 20% threshold in that state.

For Cruz and Rubio, the hybrid states they are leading in don't help them much. In Arkansas and Oklahoma, all three will likely surpass the lower thresholds, making it essentially a proportional split. In Texas, even if Cruz somehow picks up steam, the threshold rules are set up to mostly guarantee a proportional split between at least the top top 2, making it nearly impossible for him to claim much more than a 60/40 split of delegates.

The rules significantly favor Trump next week.

 
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Willie Neslon said:
There's no way Trump is inevitable at this point. Jeb just dropped out.  He was polling at around 8%. Trump is getting exactly zero of those votes. The people not in the Trump camp now are less likely to back him then whoever is left standing against him.
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Rubio and especially Kasich have significant money problems, how do they turn the tide between now and Super Tuesday?  If Jeb doesn't hurry up and endorse, a lot of his money might sit on the sidelines or be split.

The best case scenario to defeat Trump is Rubio winning Nevada with Cruz & Kasich immediately dropping out and endorsing Marco.  I doubt it happens because both Rubio & Cruz are in their 40s, they are jockeying for the future of the party so deep down each would rather stay in and win that battle even if it means Trump wins.  Heck, either might run again in 4 years even if Trump is President.  Both obviously run again in 2020 if Hillary or Bernie wins.

 
That's the thing that bothers (hesitate saying scares) me. Trump may stop Cruz now, but who will stop him next time?

 
With this primary process, eventually this was going to happen. It's why Iowa can't be allowed at the adults table anymore. 

 
proninja said:
Baloney Sandwich said:
Rubio and especially Kasich have significant money problems, how do they turn the tide between now and Super Tuesday?  If Jeb doesn't hurry up and endorse, a lot of his money might sit on the sidelines or be split.

The best case scenario to defeat Trump is Rubio winning Nevada with Cruz & Kasich immediately dropping out and endorsing Marco.  I doubt it happens because both Rubio & Cruz are in their 40s, they are jockeying for the future of the party so deep down each would rather stay in and win that battle even if it means Trump wins.  Heck, either might run again in 4 years even if Trump is President.  Both obviously run again in 2020 if Hillary or Bernie wins.
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/trump-clinton-still-have-big-sc-leads.html

Trump seems to have sewed up the bigot vote
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Wealthy donors drawn to Rubio White House bid after Bush drops out,

:moneybag:

"It's a stampede," added another donor, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he wanted to give Bush some time after dropping out before he went public with his support of Rubio, the U.S. senator from Florida.

Three other Bush donors, who declined to be named, also said they now planned to support Rubio.
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I hadn't seen the final delegate allotment plan for Texas until just now. Holy ####, not sure why people aren't freaking out about this.  

In the situation where Rubio cannot get 20% of the vote he could walk out empty handed on at-large delegates with Trup/Cruz being allotted delagtes proportionally as if he wasn't even in the race at all.

The remainder of the non at-large will pass to people that get 15% of the state wide vote.

Then there are the super delegates that can vote however they want (20? I believe).  

So in the situation where Rubio can't muster 15% of the vote it's possible he comes out of Texas with none of the 155 delegates at all. 

 
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3C's said:
And the typical "I'm not saying <insert some nonsense>, just that other people are saying it.

“I don't know. I really — I've never looked at it, George. I honestly have never looked at it. As somebody said, he's not."
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Straight out of the Roger Ailes playbook.

 
ffldrew said:
3C's said:
And the typical "I'm not saying <insert some nonsense>, just that other people are saying it.

“I don't know. I really — I've never looked at it, George. I honestly have never looked at it. As somebody said, he's not."
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Straight out of the Roger Ailes playbook.
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We report, you decide.

Also, I'm not saying Trump is a truther, I don't know really, but some people are saying it.

 
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Odds of becoming President, using best available odds at Oddschecker:

Code: 
Hillary	49.1%
Trump	20.8%
Rubio	17.1%
Sanders	 7.2%
Bloomberg2.3%
Cruz	 1.4%
Biden	 1.2%
Kasich	 0.9%
 
3C's said:
Love that a guy who isn't even in the race has a better chance than Cruz. LOVE IT!
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And another guy who isn't in the race is in a virtual tie with him as well.  Maybe they can run the odds with Cruz against a dead person, might be a more fair contest.

 
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We've seen this Early Evangelical show before, and it never ends well for the candidate.  Cruz is ornery enough to stay in the race pulling down 10-20% though, specifically in hopes of forcing a brokered convention. 

It's delusional to think that you could win a brokered contest after pissing on your fellow Senators for the last several years, but I wouldn't put it past him to try.

 
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3C's said:
That's the thing that bothers (hesitate saying scares) me. Trump may stop Cruz now, but who will stop him next time?
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Funny, that's how I feel about Elizabeth Warren in a follow up run to Bernie.  I strongly dislike the socialism, but when Bernie goes down, we're gonna be stuck dealing with her in 4-8 years.

 
As far as Cruz, I think his message could resonate again in a stronger fashion without a Trump in the field.  I think it may need to be in the form of another messenger though.  

 
Shula-holic said:
Funny, that's how I feel about Elizabeth Warren in a follow up run to Bernie.  I strongly dislike the socialism, but when Bernie goes down, we're gonna be stuck dealing with her in 4-8 years.
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Warren is already in her mid 60s. Cruz is what, 45 or so?

 
3C's said:
Warren is already in her mid 60s. Cruz is what, 45 or so?
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Yeah, without looking it up likely about right.  If Trump or Rubio win this term though, she likely is the opponent in 4 years, especially if Bernie goes down in the primary.  That wing of the party is going to be looking for their standard bearer, and I see that being Warren.  She'd drive up even more enthusiasm IMO than Bernie.

 
Shula-holic said:
Yeah, without looking it up likely about right.  If Trump or Rubio win this term though, she likely is the opponent in 4 years, especially if Bernie goes down in the primary.  That wing of the party is going to be looking for their standard bearer, and I see that being Warren.  She'd drive up even more enthusiasm IMO than Bernie.
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Warren would legitimately have one more window and I doubt even that happens. Cruz has 20 or more years to give it a run and I have no doubt he will give it another go or 3.

 
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