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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (2 Viewers)

Kasich squares up well against Clinton in head-to-head polling.  
i'll agree with you on this, and would be down for voting for him when it came PA's turn to figure things out. but i think like was mentioned before, things get real silly if all of a sudden Republicans as a whole have to start acting like they are behind Kasich after all of this. I think Kasich can get people closer to the middle to vote for him, but not sure a ton of people are motivated to vote at all if he is the nominee

 
No chance...the evangelical thing doesn't play out here.  We actually believe in the separation of church and state...almost fiercely.

Trump will dominate out West the way he did in Nevada...take that to the bank brohan.
The last poll out here had Cruz ahead by a few points, but that was in late December. 

 
Don't think I need to explain my position again on Trump. Ok I will. It's not that I think he will do any of his BS. It's that these lying ####ers need taught a lesson. I'm using Trump like a cheap whore to get my point across. I hate all of them and they deserve Trump. If this nation had any brains or balls, Perot would have won, NAder would have won. This is the third shot to #### these losers over.
I'll show you!

:insertsdbarrellofgunintomouthandpullstrigger:

 
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Competence? Kasich is only competent if you ignore the need to act responsibly when balancing the budget. Here's an article that touches on kasichs complete bull ####e methods for budgeting. 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/02/25/hit-floods-and-budget-cuts-neville-vote-disappearing/80458300/
Tough choices are part of any budgeting process, unless you just say "yes" to everything (and I recognize that is popular in some quarters).

I guess it is sad that some of these small villages won't remain independent, but they aren't able to support themselves as independent fiscally. So they are reliant on hand outs from the State Government, which means their independence as villages is a burden on the rest of the state.

I am not even a particular fan of Kasich, but compared to the others in the running, he seems incredibly reasonable and well-qualified.

 
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He still down 20+ in fl?
Double digits. But the "establishment" is spending lots of money down there in a last ditch effort to stop Trump. Interestingly, they're not spending nearly as much money in Ohio, and I think Kasich probably has a better shot of winning Ohio than Rubio does of winning Florida. But all of the money is going to Florida. 

 
Any place to see a map of the delegates per state that are still out there and where the ones that have already been pledged have gone 

 
Any place to see a map of the delegates per state that are still out there and where the ones that have already been pledged have gone 
On my phone right now so can't get you the link... but I added a good site yesterday that showed what is given and what is left. Lots still in play. :popcorn:

 
bolzano said:
There's some chatter that the networks might have called Louisiana too soon. Cruz is crushing Trump with election day voters/ late deciders. Hence it might be something to monitor.

Trump's LA lead over Cruz started out at over 25% w/ EVs only. Now it's 6.6% and closing, w/ less than half of precincts in.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/706315572615614464
I'd be stunned if there's shenanigans in the Louisiana voting...

 
Cruz cannot be Hillarity. He's too far right wing. When you limit your base, you lose. Cruz and the republican elite are too stupid to figure that out.
Agree he is not electable in a national election.
According to the betting markets, it looks like if Cruz wins the primary, they're giving him about a 34% chance of winning the general. If Trump wins the primary, they're giving him about a 29% chance of winning the general.

Trump is a big favorite to win the primary. But it appears that he's expected to be slightly less electable than Cruz in the general.

 
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Just as I say that, Trump just grew the raw total lead to over 10,000 and now 54% in.  Still it was obviously too early to call that, they had to have some bad precinct numbers.

 
Trump averts a bad night by holding on in Kentucky.  He did ok, but obviously I think Cruz is the big winner of the night just by fighting it to a near stalemate.  Rubio appears to be on life support with no real hopes of recovering.

 
According to the betting markets, it looks like if Cruz wins the primary, they're giving him about a 34% chance of winning the general. If Trump wins the primary, they're giving him about a 29% chance of winning the general.

Trump is a big favorite to win the primary. But it appears that he's expected to be slightly less electable than Cruz in the general.
Something seems off with that.  Trump seems more likely to win a national election than a candidate with almost no chance in any purple state like Cruz.

 
Something seems off with that.  Trump seems more likely to win a national election than a candidate with almost no chance in any purple state like Cruz.
Yeah in an odd way I think Trump has the better upside, but also the worst downside.  His deviation is a lot wider, but then again, given Hillary's problems the whole election could be unpredictable.

 
Yeah he could really be embarrassed in Florida.  Trump just called on him to drop out, basically baiting him to stay in.
I think at this point most Republican voters will see a vote for Rubio or Kasich as a wasted vote.  I expect them to get even less votes going forward.  He could finish 3rd in Florida.   

 

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