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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

Mister CIA said:
Downtown MS, standing by. 

Before finishing beer 2, I figured I better scurry on over to Kroger and load up. Shelves were approaching bare for necessities, still I walked away with four cases of bottled water; two boxes of Triscuits; eight sleeves of saltines; flashlight batteries (x2); extra crunchy PB; and loaf of whole wheat. Gonna slice and baggy cheese tomorrow, and overflow the ice maker. Also, gassed up the car, and laundry is done. Only remaining task is to make a beer run while everyone else is scurrying about tomorrow. ...S###, I better set my fantasy lineup in advance, just to be safe.

If anyone needs help, holler. 
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The store was out of candles so I bought LED lights you can strap to your head like a miner. 

Wife was not impressed. 

 
Henry Ford said:
El Floppo said:
Biloxi.
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This hits Biloxi, his kids are still going to get high tropical storm force winds, possibly hurricane force, and a lot of rain. 
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11 AM EDT runs have Nate's eye passing over land in the vicinity of Gautier, MS (NHC) and Bayou La Batre, AL (Accuweather). Pensacola is likely to get hit pretty much like you say, though without a very late eastern jog ... Pensacola should avoid sustained hurricane force winds. Of course, 70 mph winds over the course of an hour or two can push a lot of debris around.

Two things that are fortunate about Nate: (1) it's moving very fast -- 22-25 mph -- and isn't expected to sit over any one area for any length of time; and (2) the maximum sustained winds are concentrated over a small section northeast of the eye.

 
Doug B said:
11 AM EDT runs have Nate's eye passing over land in the vicinity of Gautier, MS (NHC) and Bayou La Batre, AL (Accuweather). Pensacola is likely to get hit pretty much like you say, though without a very late eastern jog ... Pensacola should avoid sustained hurricane force winds. Of course, 70 mph winds over the course of an hour or two can push a lot of debris around.

Two things that are fortunate about Nate: (1) it's moving very fast -- 22-25 mph -- and isn't expected to sit over any one area for any length of time; and (2) the maximum sustained winds are concentrated over a small section northeast of the eye.
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Yeah, 70 vs 75 is a pretty academic distinction when the liquor bottle you left outside comes through the window.

 
Henry Ford said:
Just barely drizzling here.  Any good/bad news in New Orleans?
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Not much ... a regular rainy day down here as the very far northern bands have made it up here. More than a drizzle, but nowhere near a hard rain. Not particularly windy yet, either.

 
Doug B said:
Not much ... a regular rainy day down here as the very far northern bands have made it up here. More than a drizzle, but nowhere near a hard rain. Not particularly windy yet, either.
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This thing screams Ivan to me. I remember living in Mid City and it barely rained when it made its Mississippi landfall. 

 
Henry Ford said:
This thing screams Ivan to me. I remember living in Mid City and it barely rained when it made its Mississippi landfall. 
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Georges in 1998, too, as I understand from those who stayed behind. That was the first hurricane in my lifetime from which (some) people evacuated the NOLA area. People who stayed behind kind of ribbed those of us who left town. Among local residents, the events of Georges likely muted the pre-landfall reaction to Katrina seven years later.

 
NOLA-area FBGuys:

David Bernard is on Fox 8 right now receiving live reports from a Hurricane Hunter flight. The last reading was about due south of Laplace, LA, and I'm eyeballing the location as also about 80-100 miles NW of the eye. Wind reading is only at 22 mph sustained ... so the key for anyone to get through Nate with minimal problems is to be on the west side of the eye.

 
Hurricane Hunters are finished their afternoon runs. Here are the windspeed readings -- orange line in center of map is Nate's track. Two things stand out:

- The max sustained windspeed near the eye (all those 98.X numbers along center) looks stabilized. Doesn't seem likely to increase between now and landfall.

- The sustained winds west of the eye, even very close to the eye, are well below even tropical-storm force windspeeds.

 
Henry Ford said:
This hits Biloxi, his kids are still going to get high tropical storm force winds, possibly hurricane force, and a lot of rain. 
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The school cancelled all campus activities but has not required campus students to remain on campus - yet. 

 
NWS recording wave heights up to 28 feet in the Gulf.  Storm surge is potentially going to be pretty sizable when this thing makes landfall. 

 
Doug B said:
Two things that are fortunate about Nate: (1) it's moving very fast -- 22-25 mph -- and isn't expected to sit over any one area for any length of time; and (2) the maximum sustained winds are concentrated over a small section northeast of the eye.
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That's VERY unfortunate for the coastal surge.  If the storm is sustained 75mph wind, you add the forward speed (25mph) to that to get the actual winds.  That's why 1938 was so bad.  Forward speed built up alot of surge ahead of it.

 
Beef Ravioli said:
Is Pensacola in the crosshairs? I have two boys down there. I asked them about it and they have no clue  :wall:
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My daughter is there too. I told her it was coming but won't be too bad. Told her to come home tonight if she wants but she said no thanks. I told her to stay off the roads. Other than that they should be fine. 

 
PIK95 said:
That's VERY unfortunate for the coastal surge.  If the storm is sustained 75mph wind, you add the forward speed (25mph) to that to get the actual winds.  That's why 1938 was so bad.  Forward speed built up alot of surge ahead of it.
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Only those winds that are moving roughly in the same direction as the forward motion, right? Since it's a circulatory system, most of the winds will moving at least partially against the forward motion.

 
Doug B said:
Only those winds that are moving roughly in the same direction as the forward motion, right? Since it's a circulatory system, most of the winds will moving at least partially against the forward motion.
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Yeah, its the top right quadrant pushing the water. 

 
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Parts of Mobile are flooded and over 100K are out of power but, yeah, this is a relatively benign hurricane. 

 
Uruk-Hai said:
Parts of Mobile are flooded and over 100K are out of power but, yeah, this is a relatively benign hurricane. 
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Sorry if my previous response was downplaying the impact of Nate, I was just trying to state that I’d prefer to not have any storms to comment on in this thread. 

 
Brady Marino said:
The Azores might think she's a b!tch this time next week, though.
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Ophelia is one strange storm. It's formed way north from where tropical systems typically form ... and it's moving west to east, the reverse of almost every other starting-out storm.

 
Doug B said:
Ophelia is one strange storm. It's formed way north from where tropical systems typically form ... and it's moving west to east, the reverse of almost every other starting-out storm.
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True, though the movement is fairly typical of a storm in that area. This might be one of those storms worth watching as it gets closer to Spain or the UK. I think a tropical storm hit Spain during the wicked 2005 season if I'm not mistaken.

Edit: Hurricane Vince, come on down!

 
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Galileo said:
Up to category 3, but can't sustain this.
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Nope, cold front plus oddball location plus interaction with Azores should mean a drop soon. Also, the eye will probably stay off Ireland's shore, but they'll get walloped.

It's nuts to even be talking about a hurricane hitting Ireland, but hey, 2017.

 
So I've been in Puerto Rico three weeks now, feels like three months. Still having issues with comms. They say 55% of island has them but outside San Juan it's pretty ####### spotty. I've worked in Ponce and in the central mountain towns of Jayuya, Utuado, Adjuntas, and Lares and they don't have any comms. 

Potable water still an issue and lots of rain is making for mudslides. My Spanish is pretty decent, especially comprehension so I've done a lot of stuff without a translator. Long hours, hot or rainy, some very sad stories too but rewarding work.

Just stopped in to give you a a few numbers. 

10.5 million meals delivered, 3.6 million gallons of potable water, 10 million bottles of water, 640k registered for disaster relief (includes Virgin Islands) and $87 million approved to distribute to some of those people already. $336 million in public assistance granted to Hurricane Maria communities. 

 
Doctor Detroit said:
So I've been in Puerto Rico three weeks now, feels like three months. Still having issues with comms. They say 55% of island has them but outside San Juan it's pretty ####### spotty. I've worked in Ponce and in the central mountain towns of Jayuya, Utuado, Adjuntas, and Lares and they don't have any comms. 

Potable water still an issue and lots of rain is making for mudslides. My Spanish is pretty decent, especially comprehension so I've done a lot of stuff without a translator. Long hours, hot or rainy, some very sad stories too but rewarding work.

Just stopped in to give you a a few numbers. 

10.5 million meals delivered, 3.6 million gallons of potable water, 10 million bottles of water, 640k registered for disaster relief (includes Virgin Islands) and $87 million approved to distribute to some of those people already. $336 million in public assistance granted to Hurricane Maria communities. 
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Thanks for your work!

 
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