*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (2 Viewers)

[Wingnut]

There's the possibility that 95 wouldn't clear out tonight, I suppose, but it's cleared up by midnight each night so far.  dunno

Tonight is Irma eve though...all the last minute fleeing is gonna be a surge of people on the road IMO.

 

[culdeus]

Having never really been part of an evacuation except for Rita into Dallas (which was a mess).

IF you don't have family or a second home do you just keep driving till you find a hotel?

 

[TheAristocrat]

Found out that one of my co-workers isn't leaving South Florida because "We have two dogs and its not that easy."

I knew she wasn't all that bright but this is exceedingly idiotic.

 

[Gawain]

If anyone is evacuating via I-10 thru Alabama.   Mobile was a another kick in the nuts after finally getting out of Florida.  The Wallace Tunnell was closed yesterday, got rerouted thru another tunnel.   Long backup to get through it.    

That's going to get renamed soon, I bet.

 

[Insein]

Zander Venezia, a professional surfer from Barbados (16 years old) has died trying to surf the swelled waves from Irma.

Well that was dumb.

 

[Wingnut]

Having never really been part of an evacuation except for Rita into Dallas (which was a mess).

IF you don't have family or a second home do you just keep driving till you find a hotel?

Ideally youve booked something online ahead of time.

 

[El Floppo]

Zander Venezia, a professional surfer from Barbados (16 years old) has died trying to surf the swelled waves from Irma.

oh well.

hopefully nobody hurt trying to rescue him.

 

[GregR]

12 Irma-related deaths so far, 3 in Puerto Rico, 3 in the US Virgin Islands

 

[culdeus]

The Euro has been absolutely nails so far.  They've consistently held on a more westerly track than the other models and had a more moderate (but still strong) intensity.  

 

[El Floppo]

12 Irma-related deaths so far, 3 in Puerto Rico, 3 in the US.

USVI?

 

[Wingnut]

Found out that one of my co-workers isn't leaving South Florida because "We have two dogs and its not that easy."

I knew she wasn't all that bright but this is exceedingly idiotic.

If they couldnt find a room that takes pets it absolutely could make it difficult. The way places all the way to Atlanta and even Chattanooga filled up I wouldnt be surprised if it was a nightmare trying to find a place to go, and then the time on the road with all the traffic...with animals? Pass.

 

[GregR]

12 Irma-related deaths so far, 3 in Puerto Rico, 3 in the US.

USVI?

Ah, yes, sorry, US VI.  Will edit

 

[towney]

for you florida guys, do you have flood insurance?  is it all considered a flood zone and mandatory?  does home owners ins. cover a hurricane?  is there a separate insurance for hurricane?  if so, do you have that?

I mean, destruction blows, but how many of you are covered fully?

Flood only required if in a flood zone and you have a first mortgage lender.  You can opt in but to lessen the premium you get an elevation cert.  Wind hurricane coverage in FL policies. Glad we opted for the $500 hurricane deductible, most are 2% of dwelling.    

 

[AAABatteries]

The Euro has been absolutely nails so far.  They've consistently held on a more westerly track than the other models and had a more moderate (but still strong) intensity.  

Can you post that link to the site that has the models and you can skip through?  I tried going back in the thread and can't find it.

TIA

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

If they couldnt find a room that takes pets it absolutely could make it difficult. The way places all the way to Atlanta and even Chattanooga filled up I wouldnt be surprised if it was a nightmare trying to find a place to go, and then the time on the road with all the traffic...with animals? Pass.

I saw the Gator Boys sneak an alligator into a hotel room in South carolina once.  Two dogs shouldn't be a problem.  

 

[culdeus]

Can you post that link to the site that has the models and you can skip through?  I tried going back in the thread and can't find it.

TIA

This is the most user friendly

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

It mirrors the data from where it actually comes from, I mean you can go to NOAA directly but it's more a PITA to do any type of real comparisons.

 

[urbanhack]

12 Irma-related deaths so far, 3 in Puerto Rico, 3 in the US Virgin Islands

I've seen zero coverage about the damage in Puerto Rico.   Is it not as bad as expected?  Seems weird I haven't seen one minute of coverage about it.

 

[JaxBill]

Better to batten down and stay IMO. There's a risk and major inconvenience in leaving and returning. The return on Monday morning after the storm could be horrific when most people are likely to return. Local roads will have downed trees.

The worst conditions in North Florida aren't supposed to occur until Monday morning. So if you evacuated to a location north of Orlando,  you're probably not driving back until Tuesday.

 

[culdeus]

Pretty amazing.  Here's a drop into the eye of Irma.  Measures 5 knots of wind.  I have farts that move faster than that.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-2111A-IRMA_dropsonde4_20170908-1437.png

Wonder if you could get like a fast attack sub to just sort of sit in the eye with a periscope with some instruments on it.  The thing just moves 14 knots, that's not even half speed for a attack sub.

 

[Capella]

USVI?

People fighting at Costco 

 

[The Commish]

Tonight is Irma eve though...all the last minute fleeing is gonna be a surge of people on the road IMO.

Yeah...been talking to neighbors...we're in it at this point.  No one around here has shutters, which I find odd, but they don't seem to be all that concerned.  There hasn't been plywood in the BBS for over a week now.  Going to get some sandbags "just in case" for our front door....more for "driving rain" than flooding of any sort.  I don't know WTF I am doing, but I think I'm going to be learning a lot in the next couple days.

 

[The Commish]

I feel better today than I did last night. Its weakening and by the time it gets up near I4 it will likely be a Cat 2. Everyone is gonna see hurricane force winds at some point but I dont think that will last very long once shes over the only real land mass shes encountered.

THIS is what I need to hear

My only question is, how long can we expect to be without power?  Oh, and I JUST found out we have 6 others coming to our house (complete with yipping dogs) from down in PBC.  The hurricane might be the least of my worries.

 

[GregR]

12 Irma-related deaths so far, 3 in Puerto Rico, 3 in the US Virgin Islands

Weather channel was the source of the 12 person figure.  They also have a conflicting 17 deaths on the ticker according to Caribbean authorities.

 

[SoBeDad]

The risk of driving back home is absolutely nothing compare to the risk of the strong side of a Cat4 hurricane 400 miles wide. 

This is a big storm, so there are still risks for those evacuating to the north. Yesterday, my friend evacuated to a relative's house in Brandon, just east of Tampa. The house has no storm shutters and many large trees within striking distance of the house. The Tampa area will have sustained hurricane force winds for hours. Granted, not category 4 winds. But weighing the risks and benefits of staying in a hardened non-coastal house in south Florida versus that house in Brandon, the choice is not so easy.     

Most deaths in hurricanes are due to water not wind: 88% according to the NHC.   During Andrew in 1992, a Cat 5 hit on south Dade, there were 15 direct deaths from Andrew in Florida, including 6 in trailer/prefab homes/boats, 2 by drowning and 1 by a tree. The duration of strong winds in Irma will be longer in Irma than Andrew, so I wouldn't stay in Dade or Broward unless the house had a good roof and shutters. Roof design is also important.

I'm evacuating from a 3-story CBS building on Miami Beach, just 200 yards from the Mount Sinai ER. The building has a flat roof, new impact windows, concrete floors (maybe the roof too?) and all residences are 15+feet above sea-level. But there could be 5-8 feet of water on the ground from storm surge. I'm going to a house in Cooper City, about 12 miles west of the coast in Broward. The house has good storm shutters, but a large royal palm tree in the neighbor's within falling distance of the master bedroom. If I need help during the storm in either Miami Beach or Cooper City, it'll be  along wait. 

 

[El Floppo]

Weather channel was the source of the 12 person figure.  They also have a conflicting 17 deaths on the ticker according to Caribbean authorities.

given the destruction, have to imagine they'll be finding more as rescue/relief crews get everywhere. 

but hopefully not :(  

 

[JaxBill]

THIS is what I need to hear

My only question is, how long can we expect to be without power?  Oh, and I JUST found out we have 6 others coming to our house (complete with yipping dogs) from down in PBC.  The hurricane might be the least of my worries.

Hurricane necessities - water, batteries, and brown liquor.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

The most positive thoughts heading your way for y'all riding this out.

This looks to be crazy-bad everywhere down there, but the storm surge predictions for the SW Gulf Coast look especially apocalyptic.

Seidel AND Cantore in Miami.

 

[JaxBill]

Having never really been part of an evacuation except for Rita into Dallas (which was a mess).

IF you don't have family or a second home do you just keep driving till you find a hotel?

Rick Scott just said that if you can't evac hundreds of miles then evac to a designated shelter.

 

[El Floppo]

Not technically on topic, but Tsunami warning as magnitude 8 earthquake rocks Mexico

Earth may just be saying "eff you humans!"

Well, it's raining blood here in NYC and locusts have taken over Long Island.

good lord... look at the video on this link about strange lights outside of Mex City during the earthquake. 

UFO attack? 

 

[The Commish]

THIS is what I need to hear

My only question is, how long can we expect to be without power?  Oh, and I JUST found out we have 6 others coming to our house (complete with yipping dogs) from down in PBC.  The hurricane might be the least of my worries.

Hurricane necessities - water, batteries, and brown liquor.

Got all that...I'm now a pro?

 

[culdeus]

Using the same method I used last night to call it a Cat 4 before the news did, one would say it's a Cat 5 at this moment.  Latest recon has plenty of darts showing Cat5 wind has returned.  It can take NHS a few hours to validate the category.  

 

[culdeus]

Euro is starting.  Reddit is posting the runs here:

https://www.reddit.com/live/zkadef2ttzql/

 

[Henry Ford]

Using the same method I used last night to call it a Cat 4 before the news did, one would say it's a Cat 5 at this moment.  Latest recon has plenty of darts showing Cat5 wind has returned.  It can take NHS a few hours to validate the category.  

This was my concern with the eyewall replacement right before hitting warmer water

 

[rustycolts]

Found out that one of my co-workers isn't leaving South Florida because "We have two dogs and its not that easy."

I knew she wasn't all that bright but this is exceedingly idiotic.

Don't blame her I wouldn't leave without mine.

 

[Scoresman]

You're the worst person ever if you'd leave pets behind but why can't they bring them?

 

[Don Quixote]

You're the worst person ever if you'd leave pets behind but why can't they bring them?

I mean, people are figuring out ways to evacuate roosters in passenger cars.

 

[Kal El]

2pm: sustained winds at 155. It's about to go Cat 5 again. Hold on to your butts.

 

[Henry Ford]

2pm: sustained winds at 155. It's about to go Cat 5 again. Hold on to your butts.

And every drop of water it will encounter from now until Florida is over 85 degrees.

 

[culdeus]

Pretty big euro track change.  

 

[GregR]

My brother is going to stick it out near St. Petersburg.  He works for Tropicana/Pepsi. Guess they've been bottling water like mad for it, but are having trouble getting truckers to transport it, as they are afraid they'll get stuck in traffic trying to get back out.

 

[El Floppo]

I mean, people are figuring out ways to evacuate roosters in passenger cars.

at least we don't have to ask to show them to us.

 

[GregR]

Pretty big euro track change.  

Arizona?

 

[El Floppo]

Euro is starting.  Reddit is posting the runs here:

https://www.reddit.com/live/zkadef2ttzql/

there's no way this thing can keep heading into the gulf and hit texas again, right?

 

[GregR]

I mean, people are figuring out ways to evacuate roosters in passenger cars.

Mmmm... rooster burritos...

 

[culdeus]

The 12Z ECMWF has shifted even farther west into the Florida Keys with #Irma on Sunday. This is some good news for the Miami area.

Is it entirely possible the keys simply cease to exist?  Is it a reef based island or sand?

 

[Wingnut]

THIS is what I need to hear

My only question is, how long can we expect to be without power?  Oh, and I JUST found out we have 6 others coming to our house (complete with yipping dogs) from down in PBC.  The hurricane might be the least of my worries.

Power going out is my biggest worry. You can't really prepare for it unless you have a generator, which I don't. Ice and coolers only last so long. I'm hoping we get spared as we have in the past...the longest ive been without power on my street was back in 04 during hurricane Jeanne when we lost power for about 8 hours. Other than that I cant remember any lengthy outages during any hurricanes. I have a feeling Irma may knock it out for considerably longer.

 

[GregR]

The 12Z ECMWF has shifted even farther west into the Florida Keys with #Irma on Sunday. This is some good news for the Miami area.

Is it entirely possible the keys simply cease to exist?  Is it a reef based island or sand?

The Florida Keys form a crescentic chain of small limestone islands which extend from near Miami to Key West, a distance of about 150 miles. They are made of two main formations of Pleistocene age—the Key Largo Limestone and the Miami Limestone. The former, named and described by Sanford, is an elevated coral reef rock, and the latter, also described by Sanford, is an oölitic limestone in this area.

 

[El Floppo]

well... off the top of my head... The Florida Keys form a crescentic chain of small limestone islands which extend from near Miami to Key West, a distance of about 150 miles. They are made of two main formations of Pleistocene age—the Key Largo Limestone and the Miami Limestone. The former, named and described by Sanford, is an elevated coral reef rock, and the latter, also described by Sanford, is an oölitic limestone in this area.

 

[culdeus]

Euro has Tampa/Naples/St.Pete crushed now.  Miami still sees the NE power of the storm, but Tampa gets the worst of it.

Keep in mind Euro so far this storm has been more than 2x as accurate as any other model. 

 

[GregR]

well... off the top of my head... The Florida Keys form a crescentic chain of small limestone islands which extend from near Miami to Key West, a distance of about 150 miles. They are made of two main formations of Pleistocene age—the Key Largo Limestone and the Miami Limestone. The former, named and described by Sanford, is an elevated coral reef rock, and the latter, also described by Sanford, is an oölitic limestone in this area.

I do have a geoscience background.