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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

Two charts that are interesting:

This shows how favorable things are for Maria to make landfall.  Lee will not have enough runway to do anything of consequence. In theory and should just vanish.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50ad23c9ea81738227697678ce851d9d515df7adfa171a46c1b2eab1943863ff.png

However Irma was so strong that she cooled off the water and that cooling is still for the most part present today.  Jose also cooled the water some.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f2b0e3358a68b9dbc0527546c1d06875349e2d52df26d331e53bc868c970fef.png

So, in a situation where one of these storms (Talking Maria and whatever the N is) comes along behind Irma's track maybe it won't be quite so bad.  

 
Anyone think hotel rooms and AirBnB rooms might be cheap for a while once the Keys open back up for business? Me and the GF were thinking about a trip to New Orleans for Thanksgiving weekend but she's open to going to the Keys instead...itd be a shorter drive and Id love to contribute to the economy and help the community get back on their feet.

Also, and don't judge me for this, but Im wondering if plots of land in the Keys might be a bit more affordable in the near future. Might be a good time to look into once the cleanup is further along...or am I an idiot for thinking some people might just wanna wash their hands of their property after this? Im sure there will be deals to be had, no?

 
Also, and don't judge me for this, but Im wondering if plots of land in the Keys might be a bit more affordable in the near future. Might be a good time to look into once the cleanup is further along...or am I an idiot for thinking some people might just wanna wash their hands of their property after this? Im sure there will be deals to be had, no?
I'm guessing no on this one.

 
Anyone think hotel rooms and AirBnB rooms might be cheap for a while once the Keys open back up for business? Me and the GF were thinking about a trip to New Orleans for Thanksgiving weekend but she's open to going to the Keys instead...itd be a shorter drive and Id love to contribute to the economy and help the community get back on their feet.

Also, and don't judge me for this, but Im wondering if plots of land in the Keys might be a bit more affordable in the near future. Might be a good time to look into once the cleanup is further along...or am I an idiot for thinking some people might just wanna wash their hands of their property after this? Im sure there will be deals to be had, no?
It's not a bad idea to try and help the Keys, but I think Thanksgiving may be a bit early, and there may be a few people willing to sell, but now you have a house on an island with hurricanes perfectly willing to smash it and its neighbors with vigor.

 
It's not a bad idea to try and help the Keys, but I think Thanksgiving may be a bit early, and there may be a few people willing to sell, but now you have a house on an island with hurricanes perfectly willing to smash it and its neighbors with vigor.


I'm several IPAs deep right now and the more I think about it, the more I realize that no matter what, land in the Keys will always be pricey. There will always be people ready to pay for prime location. Disregard my last post. Lol

 
I'm several IPAs deep right now and the more I think about it, the more I realize that no matter what, land in the Keys will always be pricey. There will always be people ready to pay for prime location. Disregard my last post. Lol
Yup. There's always a line.

 
It's not a bad idea to try and help the Keys, but I think Thanksgiving may be a bit early
Key West plans to reopen to tourists on Oct 20th. Id be happy with good weather, fresh shrimp/mahi, a decent room, and a place to fish.

 
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Key West plans to reopen to tourists on Oct 20th. Id be happy with good weather, fresh shrimp/mahi, a decent room, and a place to fish.
Dream Catcher is a great fishing charter.1st day we went both my wife and I went did real good.Talked my wife into letting me go a 2nd day and the owner took me out.Told him I had always wanted to catch a huge Tarpon that it was on my bucket list.He found me not one but two in the first 45 minutes I highly recommend them.

 
Impressive 
Not sure what is the primary driver (government, utility companies, technology/analytics/communication, or just old fashion experience), but I can feel an aggressive and coordinated focus on recovery here in FL.  Andrew was the first event I worked where I had access to a cell phone and now, I am Skyping and FaceTiming with my crew in the field real time.  The pre/post event images seen on the weather channel are very much the same tools used to focus resources.  The first time I used this in large scale, was Katrina and the technology has advanced so much since.  The recovery will still take time, but the funds and resources to do so appear to be available so much faster than anything I have ever seen.  One thing that hasn't changed, though, is the impact on traffic as the roads are packed everywhere I have been.

 
Not sure what is the primary driver (government, utility companies, technology/analytics/communication, or just old fashion experience), but I can feel an aggressive and coordinated focus on recovery here in FL.  Andrew was the first event I worked where I had access to a cell phone and now, I am Skyping and FaceTiming with my crew in the field real time.  The pre/post event images seen on the weather channel are very much the same tools used to focus resources.  The first time I used this in large scale, was Katrina and the technology has advanced so much since.  The recovery will still take time, but the funds and resources to do so appear to be available so much faster than anything I have ever seen.  One thing that hasn't changed, though, is the impact on traffic as the roads are packed everywhere I have been.
Yeah, the roads are the one thing that haven't changed much. Especially when talking about the Keys. I do wonder why they don't bring in more stuff by water, since there's a cruise port in Key West.

 
Key West plans to reopen to tourists on Oct 20th. Id be happy with good weather, fresh shrimp/mahi, a decent room, and a place to fish.
My source says civilian resident evacuees are allowed back next weekend, while those in the service and families are back in 2 weeks.  The return would have been faster, except the fools that didn't evacuate prompted responders to supply them water/food/medical supplies/medical care instead of helping clear roads and other various infrastructure that serves everyone.  This is one of the silent reasons to evacuate when authorities say you should.  Be a good community member and evacuate  :thumbup:

 
My source says civilian resident evacuees are allowed back next weekend, while those in the service and families are back in 2 weeks.  The return would have been faster, except the fools that didn't evacuate prompted responders to supply them water/food/medical supplies/medical care instead of helping clear roads and other various infrastructure that serves everyone.  This is one of the silent reasons to evacuate when authorities say you should.  Be a good community member and evacuate  :thumbup:
Why give them food and water. Take them to the refugee area. 

If they are hurt take them to a hospital. 

:shrug:

 
If possible, gonna try to do an April long weekend trip in Islamorada.  Love it there and hope it bounces back quickly.

 
Keys are opening back up for people to go home.  Headed down to help FIL assess the damage.  Hopefully it's not that bad, but I suspect the house will have to be gutted to the studs and redone.  Wish us luck!

 
Lost track of this thread, but what's the thoughts for Jose and Long Island?

I'm pretty far inland, and not concerned with surf issues, but I assume Jose will have a lot of rain—I've been fighting water issues in my basement and I guess I need to gear up for another long night.

 
Kal El said:
Yeah, the roads are the one thing that haven't changed much. Especially when talking about the Keys. I do wonder why they don't bring in more stuff by water, since there's a cruise port in Key West.
Possibly a lack of Jones Act compliant vessels

ETA: And it is an added complexity to add ocean logistics to the normal operation.

 
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Keys are opening back up for people to go home.  Headed down to help FIL assess the damage.  Hopefully it's not that bad, but I suspect the house will have to be gutted to the studs and redone.  Wish us luck!
Not sure how this is possible, but there wasn't an ounce of water in the house.  Looks like it crept up to within 6 inches of the front door, and came up a bit over the porch on the back of the house, but never made it in the house.  His jeep floated next door to the neighbor's.  One of his boats was in the front yard (was on a trailor) and the other was across his canal at a neighbor's boat ramp.  I am shocked.  Looks like he'll need to have some AC work done once they restore power, but it was WAAAAAAAAY better than any of us anticipated.  

All that said, it's going to be months before the keys (collectively) are going to be close to getting ready to recoup.....it's devastation everywhere you look from Marathon all the way down to Cudjoe.  The upper keys look like they got most of the water damage and from Marathon, west suffered most from wind damage.  

 
Maria has the potential to do to Puerto Rico what Irma couldn't and also re-hit some of Irma's direct shots later this week.  Few of the models have Maria hitting the US now.  Then Jose is drunk again. :shrug:

Everything behind these storms looks weak sauce.  

 
Is Maria going to do to Puerto Rico what Irma did to the Virgin Islands? Right now they are saying it's going to be a cat 4 by the time it heads right over it.

 
East coast folks need to keep an eye out for Maria. Still too far out for the models to be accurate, but the trend today has been West, coming closer to continental US before any recurve .

 
Not sure if mentioned or not, but one of the earlier models today had Hurricane Jose making another loop and a turn towards the NY/NJ area. Likely as a TS by then, though.

 
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Is Maria going to do to Puerto Rico what Irma did to the Virgin Islands? Right now they are saying it's going to be a cat 4 by the time it heads right over it.
Looks like its headed directly for St. Croix too (Southern most of the US. Virgin Islands). Fortunately Irma missed them for the most part and hit St. John and Thomas pretty bad. 

Spoke to my stepdad that lives in St. Croix the day before Irma blew by. Not good. He was totally unprepared. Hoping that won't be case this week. Maria likely smashes into him sometime late Tuesday or maybe early Wednesday. 

 
Not sure if mentioned or not, but one of the earlier models today had Hurricane Jose making another loop and a turn towards the NY/NJ area. Likely as a TS by then, though.
That's one of the major problems yhe models are having with Maria. Their estimates of where and how strong Jose will be a week from now is all over the place. And that could influence Maria path.

 
That's one of the major problems yhe models are having with Maria. Their estimates of where and how strong Jose will be a week from now is all over the place. And that could influence Maria path.
I thought about that earlier today, but I think Jose is too far along for Maria to catch up. Then again, some models have Jose stalling completely to the east of Jersey and if Maria decides to stop by for a little chitty chitty bang bang with Jose...who knows. Don't think I've ever seen two hurricanes merge before.

 
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Just got off phone with stepdad in St. Croix. Maria now upgraded to a Cat 5. Looks like a direct hit expected. Even worse, the northeast quadrant of the storm where the winds are strongest probably going to pass directly over the island. We went down there to visit him a few years ago. Most of the construction there is poured concrete. Very little stick-built. Where he's at (Christiansted) there are still structures that look bombed out from when Hugo hit them in the late 80s. 

Can't help but worry about him. He's not planning on leaving his waterfront condo. Says if it gets bad he can hide in the upper stairwell of his condo complex. Its fully enclosed. He expects his first floor to totally flood. At least he's moved his valuables, tv, and computer to a second floor hiding place. 

He's been there 15 years so I've learned to pay close attention to these storms when they get close. This looks like the worst since he's been there. 

 

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