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*** Official 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** Oscar (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mjolnirs
- Start date
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
A flood map of Georgetown, SC
If you are unfamiliar with where Georgetown is, it is about 60 miles NE of Charleston, and about 35 miles SW of Myrtle Beach.
If you are unfamiliar with where Georgetown is, it is about 60 miles NE of Charleston, and about 35 miles SW of Myrtle Beach.
Always build on a hillside and make sure mudslides are not possible. It's impossible for my house to flood. If flood waters reached my doorstep, there would be millions dead.
El Floppo
Footballguy
It's pretty easy to determine. You don't need to be a geologist. Just a functioning brain.
El Floppo
Footballguy
explain it, please. unless you're on a ridge or hill top, how do you determine whether all the land that matters- above you- is mud-slideable or not?
asking for my brother who lives on a hillside, has a functioning brain and whose house got hit by a mudslide started from property far above his.
Depends on the hill. Is his full of trees so that no vegetation is growing under them or no grass is growing on it? You look at it. Is it so steep that a mudslide can happen? Does it look like the hillside can give way? I looked at the one I built on and I said no chance. Been thru 3 cat 1 hurricanes and the water just flows down the grassy hillside. I'm near the top but there has never been a mudslide on any hill around here.
El Floppo
Footballguy
trees, parkland, and lots of houses uphill from him.
unless he somehow researched every lot doing geological surveying for each- no way to determine this. that's why I asked about your easy-peasy method. which, it sounds like, is not so methodical. or maybe I just take offense to your functioning brain comment, which implies that getting hit by a mudslide is somehow the fault of the person living there for not somehow guessing what's going to give way or not.
Ron Swanson
Footballguy
Great advice. We built our house on the highest pile of oyster and conch shells the natives were nice enough to leave behind.
2Young2BBald
Footbaldguy
Bump for what will likely become Michael very soon. I have a feeling I may find myself staged in Birmingham, AL by the end of this week based on my way unscientific thinking. A review of NOAA stuff, watching the weather channel and reading tweets from storm chasers (plus, the models seem very tight for how early it is), to me, points to a landfalling hurricane some time on Wednesday mid-morning. Hurricane fatigue from Florence and the time in the season has the potential for folks to not taking this serious. And, unfortunately, the current track has it heading over SC/NC, which certainly does not need more rain.
pantherclub
Footballguy
2Young2BBald
Footbaldguy
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents Note, its time sensitive and will change as NOAA updated their site.
El Floppo
Footballguy
Osaurus
Footballguy
You and the the rest of north Florida. Looks like it’s hauling ### so hopefully it doesn’t strengthen much. Of course when Irma hit last year up there, it was only a TS and it wasn’t good. Hoping for the best here. Maybe your neighbor will flee.
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
Looking at some of the models, might be time to buckle up when NHC advisories come out this morning. Michael seems to be gaining strength and could be much stronger storm than advertised.
@RyanMaue: Wind shear weakens some in about 36-48-hours as Michael reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. Global models -- including this GFS 00z update -- all have central pressures of 945-955 mb prior to landfall ~Category 3ish
NHC forecast landfall intensity of 85-knots is Category 2. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049145185081413632/photo/1
@RyanMaue: Wind shear weakens some in about 36-48-hours as Michael reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. Global models -- including this GFS 00z update -- all have central pressures of 945-955 mb prior to landfall ~Category 3ish
NHC forecast landfall intensity of 85-knots is Category 2. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049145185081413632/photo/1
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Michael is a weak name for a hurricane. I could maybe go with Miguel, or Mike. But Michael???
JaxBill
Footballguy
5AM NHC still has Michael at TS barely.
NHC Discussion:
With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast. Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east coast of the United States.
NHC Discussion:
With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast. Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east coast of the United States.
culdeus
Footballguy
Looks like a lose lose situation. Slower and stronger leads her East where there are fewer people but the effect would be catastrophic. Or it goes west fast and weaker and hits the panama city area that is more ready but populated.
And a few models have this thing back out to sea to return around Nantucket. As a Cat1. Eek
And a few models have this thing back out to sea to return around Nantucket. As a Cat1. Eek
JaxBill
Footballguy
Going to be interesting to see how they handle things locally here in Jax for Michael. We're forecasted to see gusts to upper 40s with several inches of rain. But if this thing jogs a little East again, the wind gets much worse. Add in the fact they close bridges here when sustained wind tops 40 mph and the St Johns winds thru the middle of the county.
Entirely possible they close schools here Wednesday and the beaches just see light breeze and wind while Western Duval gets hammered.
Entirely possible they close schools here Wednesday and the beaches just see light breeze and wind while Western Duval gets hammered.
2Young2BBald
Footbaldguy
Just got my deployment notice about 45 minutes ago. Flying to Birmingham, AL Wednesday to stage and be ready for driving in as soon as travel will allow.
ffldrew
Footballguy
I was just in Cape San Blas this weekend and they initiated mandatory evacuations for there and an area that extends from Port St. Joe to Apalachicola.
I am also supposed to be headed for Cancun on Wednesday morning out of ATL - should be a lovely day at the airport if this thing is still cooking as a TS across Georgia. Which is funny since I was worried about a hurricane hitting Cancun while I was there - not one in Georgia affecting the travel to Cancun.
I am also supposed to be headed for Cancun on Wednesday morning out of ATL - should be a lovely day at the airport if this thing is still cooking as a TS across Georgia. Which is funny since I was worried about a hurricane hitting Cancun while I was there - not one in Georgia affecting the travel to Cancun.
That one guy
Footballguy
The NHC cone, which I know isn’t to be taken exact, shows it curling west to east, but it’s direction remains due north. I have no empirical data outside of my being born and raised here in Orlando: these storms that don’t far enough out into open water away from FL’s western coast almost always make that bend east earlier and/or sharper than models predict.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Osaurus
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
The movement and intensity calls are based on tomorrow's weather and water it will pass over. It's also fighting some shear which is making the path present more N. That at least in theory won't be there tomorrow. It is true though it's missing all the West calls already.
If you walk back the models to the start of the day the track it's on now is more a Tallahassee track from the Euro spaghetti models.
The intensity is also behind schedule. Models are pretty shaky here compared to Florence.
Clown Car
Footballguy
Me too. I’ve decided to leave Tallahassee Tuesday morning to go to my sisters in Orlando. I’m taking #5,6,7,8,9,10,&11 (ages 2-14) they are all excited. I will be pretty mad if it turns in at Tampa and goes across. Maybe I won’t make a final decision til 8am.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Yea maybe wait until the 1 oclock update then make the decision. Should have a better idea then. It is only a 5 hour drive so that wouldn't be to late. Be sure to stay away from I-4 it is a mess.
Clown Car
Footballguy
No i4. Problem is our mom is dying. I’m supposed to be there and don’t want my sister to be alone. So I want to get an early start.
rustycolts
Footballguy
So sorry to hear about your mom. I know how hard that is on everyone. Thoughts and prayers for you and your family.
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
The only good thing about the track of this storm is that it seems to be moving at a decent clip, hopefully minimizing the rainfall totals. The current projection has Charleston in the eastern half and getting pretty drenched.
I have coworkers in North Florida, my SIL in Jax, and several cousins in South Georgia. Keeping an eye on this the whole way.
I have coworkers in North Florida, my SIL in Jax, and several cousins in South Georgia. Keeping an eye on this the whole way.
That one guy
Footballguy
Anyone have links to good radar?
JaxBill
Footballguy
Jax mayor-
@lennycurry: With Michael approaching, We’ve been asked by the State of Florida to send our Jax Fire/Rescue Urban Search & Rescue team to Pensacola. We are sending help. 42 folks will meet at 6 am tomorrow morning & depart at 8 am. Pray for them and their families as they go to work.
@lennycurry: With Michael approaching, We’ve been asked by the State of Florida to send our Jax Fire/Rescue Urban Search & Rescue team to Pensacola. We are sending help. 42 folks will meet at 6 am tomorrow morning & depart at 8 am. Pray for them and their families as they go to work.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Latest NHC projections have Jacksonville with 35% chance of sustained tropical storm force winds and less than an inch of rain.
Meanwhile it looks like the core of the storm is strengthening. So it could be a major wind event for a concentrated area but the rain isn't as far flung or lasting as Florence.
Meanwhile it looks like the core of the storm is strengthening. So it could be a major wind event for a concentrated area but the rain isn't as far flung or lasting as Florence.
Beef Ravioli
Footballguy
Is Pensacola at all in play?
